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Month: May 2023

Democrats solve real problems

When you want to go forward, you put it in ‘D’

Something David Roberts (@drvolts) tweeted Monday is worth your attention:

As I say over & over, there’s no clearer way to understand the contrast between America’s two political parties than by looking at what they do when they control state gov’ts. Dems solve real problems; Republicans gang up to visit cruelty on vulnerable out groups.

Roberts cites the transportation bill the DFL just passed in Minnesota as an example of Democrats solving real problems:

Added to an already passed metro-area 0.25% sales tax for housing programs and projects, the seven counties of Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Dakota, Scott, Anoka and Carver counties will see a 1% sales tax increase.

Taken together, the transportation tax and fee increases would raise an additional $1.48 billion for roads, bridges, transit and other transportation needs in the next two-year budget period and $2.22 billion for the following two-year budget.

Memory of the Interstate 35W bridge collapse is still fresh in Minnesota.

Rep. Brad Tabke, DFL-Shakopee, said the bill contains both the structure and funding — $2 million — for his plan to tackle crime and disruptions on light rail trains in Minneapolis and St. Paul. The interventions will begin with a social services emphasis to get help to people who are homeless or struggling with drug abuse or mental illness. But a law-enforcement element will follow to enforce a new code of conduct on trains. It will start as soon as the bill is signed.

The transportation bill also contains $195 million to match federal money to build passenger rail between the Twin Cities and Duluth, called the Northern Lights Express.

Contrast that with Republican assaults on women’s rights and education, and with their unsettling obsession with drag queens and gender nonconformity as issues they deem more urgent in states like Florida, Texas, and Nebraska.

Facing off against GOP supermajorities in North Carolina, Gov. Roy Cooper (D) on Monday declared a performative “state of emergency” to draw attention to a Republican effort to divert more public education funds to private schools:

“It’s clear that the Republican legislature is aiming to choke the life out of public education,” Cooper said in a recorded speech released Monday. He urged voters to “take immediate action and tell them to stop the damage that will set back our schools for a generation.”

In his video address, Cooper said he’s “declaring this a state of emergency” for public education but pointed out it was not an official order. He called on residents to encourage their legislators to reject a spate of GOP-backed education bills in the final weeks of the chief work period for this year’s legislative session.

I’ve had plenty to say about the conservative attacks on public schools. Just like they demand “integrity” to repair the public confidence in elections they’ve worked decades to erode, they’ve done the same with public schools. Their solution is demolition.

Jeanne Milliken Bonds of the UNC Kenan Flagler Business School reminds Twitter how voucher schools underperform and which newly minted N.C. Republican supports them.

Tony Gattis (@TexDem_Dkos) reminded me that Tricia Cotham was once president of a failed charter school company, part of an experimental state program ended in 2021.

President Barack Obama deployed this image to highlight the difference between parties that Roberts spotlights:

These are the folks whose policies helped devastate our middle class. They drove our economy into a ditch. And we got in there and put on our boots and we pushed and we shoved. And we were sweating and these guys were standing, watching us and sipping on a Slurpee. (Laughter.) And they were pointing at us saying, how come you’re not pushing harder, how come you’re not pushing faster? And then when we finally got the car up — and it’s got a few dings and a few dents, it’s got some mud on it, we’re going to have to do some work on it — they point to everybody and say, look what these guys did to your car. (Laughter.) After we got it out of the ditch! And then they got the nerve to ask for the keys back! (Laughter and applause.) I don’t want to give them the keys back. They don’t know how to drive. (Applause.)

I mean, I want everything to think about it here. When you want to go forward in your car, what do you do?

AUDIENCE: D!

THE PRESIDENT: You put it in D. They’re going to pop it in reverse. They’d have those special interests riding shotgun, then they’d hit the gas and we’d be right back in the ditch. (Laughter.)

Negotiating with terrorists

The U.S. does it if they’ve been elected to Congress

Casanova Frankenstein: It’s so easy to get the best of people when they care about each other. Which is why evil will always have the edge. You good guys are always so bound by the rules (throws switch & electrocutes the Frat Boys). You see, I kill my own men. And lucky me…I get the girl. (Mystery Men, 1999.)

While President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy do the debt-ceiling two-step, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cautions that the government is “highly likely” to run out of money as early as June 1, reports Axios:

  • As the debt ceiling X-date approaches, Treasury is monitoring inflows and outflows to provide a more precise estimate of when the U.S. will run out of money.
  • “[W]e have already seen Treasury’s borrowing costs increase substantially for securities maturing in early June,” Yellen warned in a letter to McCarthy on Monday.
  • “If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, it would cause severe hardship to American families, harm our global leadership position, and raise questions about our ability to defend our national security interests.”

MAGA Republicans holding McCarthy’s short leash demand cuts to the federal budget, or else. Or else they’ll set fire to the country they failed to on Jan. 6 and likely revoke his speakership, Politico suggests, because “any single disgruntled member [is] empowered to orce a vote on ousting him.”

The American Prospect sees the debt limit as an unconstitutional congressional veto on the Executive branch’s responsibility to authority to fulfill existing U.S. obligations:

The Constitution gives Congress the power to make contracts. It does not give Congress the power to renege on these contracts. Once Congress has committed the United States to perform a promise, the president’s duty to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed” requires the executive branch to perform. If performance requires payment and Congress has appropriated the funds, Treasury is bound to pay. If Congress does not raise enough revenue to pay for appropriated commitments, then the president’s only choice is to borrow to fill the gap. Each time Congress authorizes a contract and appropriates funds to perform it, it necessarily authorizes borrowing to the extent that Treasury funds fall short.

[…]

Taken literally, the debt limit would allow Congress to exercise a constitutional power with one hand (debt contract) and undercut it with the other (borrowing cap). During the last major constitutional challenge to federal debt in 1935, the Supreme Court made clear in Perry v. United States that Congress could not use its constitutional powers at cross-purposes: “The powers conferred upon the Congress are harmonious … Having this power to authorize the issue of definite obligations for the payment of money borrowed, the Congress has not been vested with authority to alter or destroy those obligations.”

That assumes that MAGA Republicans who were prepared to overturn the results of the last presidential elections respect such constitutional guardrails.

The 14th Amendment, passed by Congress in 1866 and ratified by the states in 1868, shields the new borrowing. The section dealing with debt responded to threats of political sabotage attending the readmission of Confederate states. It renounced Confederate debts as “illegal and void,” and in parallel precluded challenges to federal debts, including Union war debts and pensions, using a formula understood at the time to make legal issues non-contestable: “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law … shall not be questioned.” This sentence, known as the Public Debt Clause, bound future Congresses, future presidents, and, importantly, future courts to uphold the credit of the nation. Borrowing over the debt limit to perform existing federal obligations is authorized by law and deemed valid under the 14th Amendment.

Still, an otherwise by-the guardrails president is reluctant to authorize new borrowing or nullify some debt himself even if existing debt is guaranteed under the 14th. “The problem is it would have to be litigated,” Biden said over the weekend.

“Treasury can prioritize paying interest on Treasury bonds or retiring debt principal when it comes due,” the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board insists. “Treasury has more than enough cash to do this” without authorizing new borrowing. Read: Shut down parts of the government — shut down federal contracts, stop sending out Social Security checks, etc. — to cover creditors. In past partial shutdowns, “the world hasn’t ended.” But if the political fallout lands more on Biden than on Republicans, it wouldn’t hurt the Journal’s feelings. Or Republicans’. But then, they are slow learners.

America does not negotiate with terrorists. Unless, of course, they’ve been elected to Congress.

Oops they did it again

You’d think Kevin would have warned Comer not to screw the pooch like he did

James Comer, who is leading the GOP’s probe as chair of the House oversight and accountability committee, appeared to say the quiet part out loud during a “Fox & Friends First” interview.

“We have talked to you about this on the show, about how the media can just not ignore this any longer. In an op-ed in The Washington Post, it says, ‘Millions Flowed to Biden Family Members. Don’t Pretend It Doesn’t Matter,’” said the show’s host, Ashley Strohmier, referring to a piece last week by conservative columnist Jim Geraghty. “So do you think that because of your investigation, that is what’s moved this needle with the media?”

“Absolutely. There’s no question,” Comer replied. “You look at the polling, and right now Donald Trump is 7 points ahead of Joe Biden and trending upward, Joe Biden’s trending downward. And I believe that the media is looking around, scratching their head, and they’re realizing that the American people are keeping up with our investigation.”

Comer’s apparent moment of candor is reminiscent of Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s memorable gaffe in 2015, when he admitted the GOP’s Benghazi committee was created to hurt Hillary Clinton in the polls ahead of the 2016 election, as opposed to being any kind of substantive investigation.

“Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee ― what are her numbers today?” McCarthy told Fox News at the time. “Her numbers are dropping, why? Because she’s untrustable. But no one would have known any of that had happened.”

They just can’t help it, apparently.

Can Josh Hawley keep it up?

Good ad. You can donate to his campaign here.

Here’s the best review of Hawley’s “Manhood”

For practically as long as men have existed, they have been in crisis. Everything, it seems, threatens them with obsolescence. As far back as the 1660s, King Charles II warned English men that a new beverage called coffee would destroy their virility, and in the early 1900s, opponents of coeducation worried that feather beds, dancing and even reading might emasculate little boys. Men were in peril at the turn of the 20th century, when the founder of the Boy Scouts cautioned that “we badly need some training for our lads if we are to keep up manliness in our race instead of lapsing into a nation of soft, sloppy, cigarette suckers,” and they had not recovered by 1958, when the historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. reported in Esquire that “something has gone badly wrong with the American male’s conception of himself.” A dispatch from the journalist Susan Faludi confirmed that manliness remained “under siege” in 1999. No wonder there is such a chorus of complaints about the dearth of male role models. After so many centuries of coffee, reading and cigarette-sucking, are there even men left to emulate?

Of course, there are men to look up to in practically every field of human endeavor. Eliud Kipchoge, the only person to complete a marathon in under two hours, is a man; Ding Liren, the world chess champion, is a man. But these figures are succeeding in their capacity as athletes and competitors, when what is needed is not someone who is good and, incidentally, male, but someone who is good at being male — someone whose primary occupation is masculinity itself. Men do not want inspiring examples of fortitude or ingeniousness; they want what Faludi has called a “gender rule book,” preferably one that is easy to follow.

A gender rule book is precisely what Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri attempts to provide in “Manhood: The Masculine Virtues America Needs,” the latest in a long line of guides. Recently, there’s Jack Donovan’s “The Way of Men,” which boasts that it is for anyone who has ever “wished for one day as a lion,” and Jordan Peterson’s best-selling “Twelve Rules for Life,” which is nominally gender-neutral but in fact instructs readers in the art of masculinity (and which is a literal rule book). New Age types can consult Robert Bly’s “Iron John,” the loosely Jungian urtext of the mythopoetic men’s movement, published in 1990, which counsels men to embrace their “Zeus energy.” Pseudo-intellectuals may prefer the more refined if less coherent “Manliness” (2006), by Harvard professor Harvey Mansfield, who blusters about chivalry and gentlemen. These books have significant differences, but they all find themselves in the awkward position of claiming that masculinity is both unassailable and endangered, both natural enough to be obvious and fragile enough to require defense.

Hawley toes the same wavering line in “Manhood,” in which he posits that masculinity is, at once, a biological endowment and a personal achievement. The book has many of the same tics as its forebears: It includes the usual eulogies for physical labor (romanticized as working with your hands), the standard invocations of legends from the “ancient Near East” purported to confirm manhood’s universality, the familiar hagiographic celebrations of Teddy Roosevelt and the obligatory assurances that “men” are called to be “warriors,” this time on the cultural battlefield.

But Hawley’s opus is less of a riot than its predecessors. As serious thinking about gender, works like “Iron John” and “Manliness” fail, but as parodies and performances, they succeed by dint of their sheer outrageousness. Hawley, a Republican and an especially dreary type of fervent Christian, is too much of a dour moralist to write, as Bly does, that inside every man lurks a “primitive being covered with hair down to his feet,” or to speculate, as Mansfield does, that women are not fit for combat because “they fear spiders.” Despite himself, he is doing drag, but he will be pleased to hear that he is doing it poorly.

“Manhood” sees itself as a tragedy, not a farce. American men, it proclaims, are in dire straits. They are not working, getting married or raising children. Instead, they are taking drugs, feeling sorry for themselves and watching pornography on their phones. Hawley’s tone is alternately sympathetic and scolding as he suggests that men have become aimless and irresponsible, a development that will surely prove catastrophic for the country. “No menace to this nation is greater than the collapse of American manhood,” he writes, because “self-government” succeeds only when citizens cultivate “strength of character.” Women, it is implied, do not have enough of this precious resource to keep the country running.

Like a campaign speech, “Manhood” is an adventure in impressionistic and impassioned disorganization. Chapter breaks may as well be accidental; most passages could be reshuffled into any section without any loss of coherence. Hawley identifies six roles that men should occupy — husband, father, warrior, builder, priest, king — but never manages to distinguish them clearly from one another. Men in each guise are supposed to do hackneyed and abstract things, like “endure.” We are treated almost at random to tirades about the “chattering classes” and, quaintly, the French Revolution, which is characterized not as an assault on monarchy but as a “campaign of wholesale atheism.”

Insofar as it is possible to impose an organizational principle onto “Manhood,” the book takes up four distinct projects, though not in any particular order. The first is halfhearted biblical exegesis. The second is wholehearted self-promotion. Hawley is keen to cast himself as a man of the people by neglecting to name his elite alma maters (Stanford and Yale Law School), name-dropping the less-demonized university where he says he taught many floundering young men (the University of Missouri School of Law), reminiscing about his participation in organized sports (football) and selectively remembering the parts of his childhood that he spent on his grandparents’ farm (where he went only during vacations). He is effusive about his grandfather, a farmer, and his uncle, who started a concrete-pouring business, but is comparatively silent about his father, whose profession (banker) he conveniently neglects to mention. His autobiographical forays are desperately folksy: He remembers “Christmases with a tree in the parlor and a fire on the hearth and summers of chasing fireflies in the front yard,” and recalls that meeting his wife “felt somehow like being at my grandparents’ house in Kansas,” which sounds punitively unsexy.

Hawley’s third fixation is liberalism, defined not as a political system but as an all-encompassing ethos that consists, primarily, of the fetishization of choice. There is no sin for liberals, he writes, but “the sin of intolerance.” This faulty account of liberalism as a philosophy of personal morality, rather than a philosophy of state action, is buttressed by even faultier intellectual history. It would be impossible to survey all that Hawley gets wrong — suffice it to say that America would be considerably more interesting if the Democrats read as much German philosophy as he believes they do — but his most impressively bizarre assertion is that the Greek philosopher Epicurus is the forefather of modern political theory. Hawley insists on interpreting Epicurus as a hedonist, even though the thinker urged his followers to moderate their appetites, and as a proto-liberal, even though he was famously allergic to politics.

The final strand of “Manhood”is standard self-help fare, much of it inoffensive. Who would contest that you should “stop buying stuff to make yourself feel better” or, even more banally, “aim to do something with your life”? I too regard courage, assertiveness and ambition as virtues, but if men aren’t the only ones who display them, in what sense are they “manly” virtues in particular? Surely women, too, can aim to do something with their lives. Hawley writes that “a man is built for commitment,” but he thinks men are supposed to marry women, so presumably he thinks that women are built for commitment, too. Men are “meant to lead,” but wait, “Genesis says God directed man — and woman — to rule” (emphasis mine). Hawley writes that he admires protesters in Hong Kong, but wait, they are led “by a group of young, very young, men and women” (emphasis mine again).

What is a man, anyway? Hawley’s various answers are not very illuminating. Men are dependent (“a man cannot be who he is meant to be on his own”) but also independent (“dependence is in fact a temptation to every man, in every age. It is the temptation to let someone else do it for you”). Men do not “blame someone or something else,” such as “society,” or “the system,” but men do, apparently, blame “Epicurean liberalism” for almost everything that ails them. “Manhood is real and biological,” but some of the central masculine virtues “can be learned,” and the venerable Greeks and Romans “held that manhood was a vocation that each man must struggle to assume. … Boys were born as males, but not yet as men. One became a man only by acquiring certain character traits.” A man is a rugged individualist who figures things out for himself, but he also relies on how-to guides to teach him how to exist.

No wonder so many men are in despair. They are tasked with being social yet solitary, victimized yet valorous; they are assured that their estate is natural but cautioned that it is tenuous to the point of dissipation; they are instructed to forge their own paths, but also directed to an endless stream of gurus peddling weightlifting programs and diets of raw organ meat. Even their supposed advocates berate them for failing to perform tasks that it is no longer possible for them to perform. In addition to scaremongering about liberal plots, Hawley identifies several real social and economic problems, such as wage stagnation and the over-diagnosis of ADHD. But he goes on to offer unhelpfully personal solutions. “Say no to yourself, discipline your passions,” he urges. But how is saying no to yourself going to raise your salary or prevent pharmaceutical giants from marketing Ritalin to children?

Working-class men “have watched their prospects steadily dim over the last five decades, as more and more blue-collar jobs have disappeared overseas or been simply eliminated,” he concedes. But having acknowledged that there is no work to be had, he concludes, “My advice to young men looking for work is to do whatever honorable work is available” because “no work is beneath you” — except, he clarifies, effeminate work in the service industry. “There is nothing wrong” with teachers and caretakers, “but the fact is, men are historically less interested in those fields.” Should we try to interest men in those fields, then? No, “to the experts safely ensconced in their think tanks, I would just say this: Is it really too much to ask that our economy work for men as they are, rather than as the left wants them to be?” But it’s not for lawmakers like Hawley to do anything differently. It’s for you to “get a job. Keep it. Then pay your bills.”

So let’s review: You, an aspiring man, are supposed to get a blue-collar job, even though there are no blue-collar jobs. If you object that you cannot find work, you are a weakling making excuses. If you find a job in the sectors that are expanding, perhaps as a home health aide, you are emasculating yourself. And if you accept welfare while searching for a job that no longer exists, you are “servile.” Even as self-help goes, this advice is pretty unworkable.

Ultimately, “Manhood” differs only cosmetically from the book that Hawley’s liberal straw man would write. The Epicurean liberals of his imagination are invested in self-gratification, and he is invested in self-improvement. Both are invested in the self. In 1976, the cultural critic Christopher Lasch wrote that “the contemporary climate is therapeutic, not religious. People today hunger not for personal salvation, let alone for the restoration of an earlier golden age, but for the feeling, the momentary illusion, of personal well-being, health and psychic security.” Hawley is nominally as religious as they come, but his book is really just a work of two-bit therapy.

It is easy — and reasonable, to say nothing of fun — to mock men’s manuals, which are in fact ridiculous. But male pain is real, and it is no laughing matter. There is something touchingly vulnerable, if misguided, about the image of a man reaching for “Iron John” or “Manhood” in the hopes of discovering how to live. The questions that bring people to self-help are often admirably philosophical ones, in want of less frivolous and sentimental answers than those Hawley is equipped to provide.

“Manhood”opens with a nod to the many American men who worry that they are at sea. “I’m not sure what I’m supposed to do with my life,” they think (or at least, Hawley thinks they think). In anecdote after anecdote, male students at the University of Missouri come to his office, asking where to go, what to do, how to be. These are stomach-churning questions, but they are also questions all mature and thoughtful people must confront, not glitches to be plugged into an all-ameliorating algorithm of masculinity. Hawley laments that these youths have “no template, no vision for what it is to be a man.” But why are they owed a template? Why must they rely on rule books and role models? Why is it so intolerable if they have to spend a few years mulling matters over before deciding which path to pursue?

If I believed in “manliness,” I would say that it is not very manly to seek out a father figure to hand you a script for adulthood, but I don’t, so instead I’ll say that the longing for a lifelong coach is gender-neutrally juvenile. Hawley’s quest to obviate existential uncertainty is animated by a desire that seems to undergird much of contemporary conservatism, with its mania for conventions and guardrails: a desire for an eternal parent to tell you exactly when and how to clean your room.

The sociologist Michael Kimmel reports that the reactionary denizens of the early men’s rights movement were plagued by a central gripe: “If men were supposed to be so powerful and oppressive, how come so many men were still living lives of quiet desperation?” Faludi comes to similar conclusions in “Stiffed,” her sweeping journalistic investigation of male dissatisfaction. “To be a man means to be at the controls and at all times to feel yourself in control,” the men she interviewed told her, yet these men felt themselves to be impotent and ineffectual. The problem was not that they were out of control but that they felt so obliged to be in it. No amount of admonishment from Hawley and Peterson and other members of the surrogate-dad brigade can change the patent fact that the world is uncontrollable and always has been. Men would not have to suffer from the conviction that they are failing if they were encouraged to accept that total sovereignty over the chaos of interpersonal affairs is both impossible and undesirable.

A ready-made role certainly provides the illusion of certainty, but is it a sustainable, or even worthwhile, illusion? And can it compensate for all that we lose when we encounter one another not as singularities but as avatars of social tendencies? What Hawley says about porn is true of the entire system of gender: “Relationships are risky. They are difficult. Porn, by contrast, is cheap and easy. It’s safe.” Individuality is risky; self-help about masculinity is safe. What we need is not the armor of manhood, the ideal of the warrior or builder or priest, but the courage to face each other in all our glorious particularity, without teachers or templates.

Becca Rothfeld is the nonfiction book critic for The Washington Post.

That says it all.

Durham disinformation everywhere

Including in the Washington Post

It’s obvious that right wingers did not read the report. They have been relying on each other’s interpretations and it’s all wrong.

Here’s the very trustworthy NY Times’ Charlie Savage:

Marc Thiessen wrote a shoddy Washington Post column using as a foil the headline of my piece yesterday assessing how the Durham inquiry fell flat after years of political hype. (He didn’t engage with its substance, of course.) A dissection follows. 

As an initial matter, Thiessen got his start at a lobbying firm that included two named partners – Paul Manafort and Roger Stone – who were convicted of felonies in the Russia investigation & pardoned by Trump. He does not disclose that conflict to the WP’s readers.

Thiessen opens by insinuating that I am downplaying Durham bc I’m implicated in (his tendentious portrayal of) the media’s Trump-Russia coverage. Aside from whether he is accurately describing Mueller’s complex findings, I wasn’t part of the NYT’s Trump-Russia coverage team.

He links a screenshot, not the piece nyti.ms/3pSTil6, then moves goalposts. The hype was that Durham would deliver proof of a deep state conspiracy & prosecute people like Comey, Brennan & Clinton-not just find flaws/abuses like an inspector general already did.

Kudos for not pretending the FBI opened the inquiry based on the Steele dossier. Still, in cherrypicking some agents portraying the info as thin, he omits Durham’s concession that “there is no question that the FBI had an affirmative obligation to closely examine” it.

2x bait & switch. To criticize the FBI decision to open a “full”-level inquiry, he takes out of context passages actually discussing how the FBI later botched FISA applications. Using that to laud the Durham inquiry, he omits that it was instead found by the inspector general.

Continuing to implicitly credit Durham for the IG’s findings, Thiessen also here goes beyond being misleading and makes a factual error that the WP should correct. The doctored e-mail was bad, but used in internal discussions–not presented as evidence to the FISA court.

This is true — though, again, derived from the 2019 inspector general report and so not the Durham investigation delivering on the hype.

As he keeps going, notice how a column about the Russia investigation is turning into a critique of the Steele dossier–a common slight of hand. The dossier’s investigative role was limited to the Page FISA warrants.

Thiessen says the FBI relied on Danchenko as a paid source to investigate Trump. As the trial showed, while the FBI 1st approached him when vetting the dossier, it found his contact network unique and he evolved into an ongoing source about Russia stuff unrelated to Trump.

He’s now all in on conflating the Russia investigation with the Steele dossier. The FBI used the dossier for its botched Carter Page FISA warrants, which was bad in myriad ways the IG documented. But the scrutiny of Page was a small part of the overall Russia investigation.

Another error-the 2nd poll’s #s come from a subset, not all respondents. Anyway, a single # for views about “the media” means little. Lumps together too many different kinds of outlets & different types of people with mutually inconsistent views about what they’re mad about.

No comment necessary.

Savage’s article:

After Years of Political Hype, the Durham Inquiry Failed to DeliverA dysfunctional investigation led by a Trump-era special counsel illustrates a dilemma about prosecutorial independence and accountability in politically sensitive matters.https://nyti.ms/3pSTil6

Savage’s assessment is the correct one. If you want to go super deep, try emptywheel. Let’s just say that Durham’s report does not say what these wingnuts say it says.

The blame game is not a strategy

Back in January, I wrote this:

Democrats are supremely confident that the Republicans will be blamed for the standoff and that this will benefit them in the 2024 election. In fact, many of them didn’t even try to convince Sinemanchin to raise it in the lame duck because they are so sure that everything will turn out all right and the GOP will be blamed for any fallout from the hostage taking.

Wherever did I get that idea?

Democratic leaders have signaled that they don’t intend to address the borrowing limit in the current lame-duck session of Congress, when their majorities in the House and the Senate would theoretically give them a shot at raising or even eliminating the cap entirely without the help of  Republican votes.

Democrats also seem to have convinced themselves that should the issue come to a head in early 2023, pushing the nation once again to the brink of a default and economic crisis, Republicans will take the blame. 

“Although there is grave risk to the economy, the gun is in Republicans’ hands,” a Biden adviser told Politico last week. “And there is little question as to who will get blamed for this.”

I got the sense from the beginning that there were some Democrats who actually relished this mayhem because they believed the Republicans would be blamed. As if rattling the markets and possibly crashing the world economy would redound to their benefit if the GOP got blamed for it.

I speculated at the time that there might have been another motive:

[W]hat this suggests is that some Democrats (I’m looking at you Chris Coons) actually wanted this stand-off so they could justify cutting spending. They had to know that they would end up at the negotiating table and if past is prologue, the GOP may pay a political price, but the American people will pay a price too. The last time we barely escaped without cuts to Medicare and Social Security — which the White House endorsed! Luckily the nutcases refused to take yes for an answer and wanted even more. Let’s just see if this ends up on the menu again.

It doesn’t appear that they are making a big play for Social Security and Medicare this time at least not yet. But if they get all the rest you can be sure they’ll come back looking for that too. If you give them an inch they’ll take a hundred miles. This is how they “negotiate:

Over the weekend, Republicans rejected a new White House offer to basically freeze domestic spending at 2023 levels — a demand they have been yelling about for months. But not only did they reject the proposal, they also added new fresh ideas to their hostage ransom list — including work requirements that are more rigid than the ones they originally proposed and new provisions that they did not have in the debt ceiling bill they passed last month.

Will the American people know about that? Somehow I doubt more than a handful are following this closely and instead are hearing the media yammer on about how “both sides” are to blame and they need to stop posturing and “come together.”

The “Gopers will get the blame” strategy was as fatuous as it gets. It assumed that this would be a re-run of 2013 (which they forget was extremely fraught for many months even though the GOP capitulated in the end.) I guess they forgot that the Dems lost the elections in 2014 and 2016.

Witness to history

Just thought I’d share this because it’s very cool:

https://twitter.com/MichaelWarbur17/status/1660373232489316353?s=20

The Right Wing institutions have big plans

If they win the presidency get ready for a revolution

Picture if you will, it’s January 21st 2025 and Donald Trump has just been inaugurated for his second term after the Biden interregnum. Yes, it would be a horrific time, not unlike those first horrible weeks in 2016 when over half the country struggled to grasp how it was possible that an ignorant, bombastic, game show host had eked out a win through an electoral college fluke. But those feelings of despair are where the similarities will end. The next Trump administration will be ready to hit the ground running with their leader’s Retribution Agenda and it won’t be because Trump is any more effective at presidential leadership. It will be because right wing institutions will have spent their four years in the wilderness preparing for their chance to enact a radical overhaul of the federal government unlike anything we’ve ever seen in this country.

Even some members of the GOP establishment are getting nervous:

There was always talk of this among the original Trumpers, even though the president himself didn’t have a clue what they were talking about. Recall former adviser Steve Bannon bellowing about the “deconstruction of the administrative state” and Former Attorney General Bill Barr’s assertions of unchecked executive power for example. As it happened, Trump was so far in over his head and ran such a chaotic, scandal filled administration that they were unable to institute many systematic changes to test their theories but they came away with the knowledge that given another chance with a corrupt demagogue they could make changes to the system that could help them stay in power indefinitely.

There has been a cascade of stories discussing the poor roll out of Trump’s campaign and how he’s still stuck in the repetitive groove of his grievances over the 2016 campaign and his loss in 2020. His appearance on CNN’s generous kick-off campaign rally for him a couple of weeks ago reinforced that idea, as he repeated all his punch lines and the audience cheered and clapped ecstatically. It certainly left the impression that if Trump were to win the election next year we would be in for a repeat of his first term: turmoil, scandal and ineptitude in which the most terrifying consequence is that a crisis hits or someone makes a catastrophic error. Last time, you’ll recall, we got hit with the first deadly global pandemic in a hundred years and Trump publicly told America to take unproven snake oil cures and instructed scientists to look into having people ingest disinfectants since they kill the virus on surfaces.

It was a disaster. Many people died and many more families were decimated but I fear that too many Americans may think that a rerun of the The Trump Show won’t be a catastrophe since most of us survived his tenure. But it won’t be a rerun. Since the day Trump left the White House for his exile at Mar-a-Lago, well-funded right wing organizations have been planning the return to power with a fully developed agenda and plan to enact it. All they have to do is put the Sharpie in Trump’s hand to sign what they put in front of him after which he can run out to the camera’s and whine and complain about whomever is his target that day as his minions turn the Executive Branch into a full functioning partisan operation.

Last summer, Axios’ Jonathan Swan wrote a long report on what they’ve been planning:

The impact could go well beyond typical conservative targets such as the Environmental Protection Agency and the Internal Revenue Service. Trump allies are working on plans that would potentially strip layers at the Justice Department — including the FBI, and reaching into national security, intelligence, the State Department and the Pentagon, sources close to the former president say…The heart of the plan is derived from an executive order known as “Schedule F,” developed and refined in secret over most of the second half of Trump’s term and launched 13 days before the 2020 election.

Schedule F is an Executive Order which would reassign potentially tens of thousands of federal employees they determine to have policy influence so they would lose their civil service protections. Republicans have come to believe that the entire federal government is filled with woke liberals intent upon depriving them of their natural right to rule without restraint.

The plan is being produced by a number of Republican groups and coordinated by some names with which you are no doubt familiar, like former DOJ lawyer Jeffrey Clark, former Devin Nunes staffer and acting Pentagon Chief of Staff Kash Patel and former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows all of whom are caught up in Trump’s legal messes as well. They plan to salt every department with GOP toadies from the military to the DOJ to the Department of Education to the CDC and NIH. And institutions like the Heritage Foundation are drawing up lists of candidates. (That same right wing institution similarly staffed the provisional government in Iraq with young right wingers to disastrous results.)

The beauty of this plan is that it doesn’t actually matter if Trump wins again. They can use it just as easily for another Republican. But it would be especially well-suited for Trump’s main principle rival Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Time Magazine’s Molly Ball reported on DeSantis’ desire to use every bit of executive power to achieve his goals:

“One of my first orders of business after getting elected was to have my transition team amass an exhaustive list of all the constitutional, statutory, and customary powers of the governor,” he writes in The Courage to Be Free. “I wanted to be sure that I was using every lever available to advance our priorities.” Aides from the time have corroborated this account, describing a thick binder of information that DeSantis proceeded to devour.

There’s no need to reiterate all the ways in which he uses every lever and coerces the legislature to enact the most extreme agenda of any state in America and now promises to take it national. Should he win he will run with the Schedule F plan and probably come up with a few of his own. This is what defines him as a political leader.

In fact, from the sound of all the Republicans on the trail extolling the alleged “bombshell” (that’s actually a dud) of the Durham Report as if it’s some huge indictment of the “deep state” that has to be completely dismantled, it’s obvious that this is going to be a Republican Party project, not a Trump project at all. They are all organizing themselves around blatant lies about elections, democracy, law and justice, health, foreign policy and national security and their partisan institutions are plotting to use those lies to remake the federal government.

It’s an ambitious plan but with the courts on their side and a congressional majority it’s eminently doable. It’s imperative that the American people do not let them attain power again as long as this is their agenda or there may be no going back.

Salon

What could go worng?

Pull back firmly

A neighbor approached me last week about the possibilities for using A.I. in support of political campaigns. No way would I let it anywhere near campaign communications. Humans are not savvy enough not to include stock imagery from foreign sources in political ads. You’d let A.I. do it? Or generate audio that might pronounce Nevada Ne-VAH-duh?

The neighbor asked Bard to list “North Carolina state representatives who voted to overturn the governor’s veto on abortion bill.” What Bard came back with after a blazing fast search of the Net was a blazing hot mess. With a few more seconds I, Human, grabbed the accurate list at the source here. Perhaps “voted to overturn the governor’s veto on abortion bill” is too vague. Which governor? Which override? Which abortion bill? (SB 20, 2023-2024 Session).

I’m reminded of an old Isaac Asimov short story, “Risk.” Briefly:

Gerald Black, the etherics engineer responsible for causing the NS-2 model to “get lost” in the previous story, is watching the next stage of hyperspace testing. Hyper Base has developed an expensive prototype spaceship with a built-in hyperdrive, called Parsec, which is expected to travel out to Sirius and return.

When the countdown ends, however, the ship doesn’t leave and nobody knows why. Black is selected to board the ship and determine what went wrong and prevent the hyperdrive from activating before they lose their prototype hyperdrive ship.

They’d placed a robot at the controls for the risky test flight. Its instructions? “Seize the bar with a firm grip. Pull it towards you firmly. Firmly! Maintain your hold until the control board informs you that you have passed through hyperspace twice.”

Black explains what went wrong, “The robot was told to pull back the control bar firmly. Firmly. The word was repeated, strengthened, emphasized. So the robot did what it was told. It pulled it back firmly. There was only one trouble. He was easily ten times stronger than the ordinary human being for whom the control bar was designed.” It bent the control bar and wrecked the attached circuitry. What does firmly mean to a robot?

“Had they said, ‘apply a pull of fifty-five pounds,’ all would have been well,” Black explained. Asimov recognized in 1955 that how you pose the question to a machine matters. A lot.

This fascination with A.I. is going to get worse before it gets better:

When a 60 Minutes staffer got a call that appeared to be from correspondent Sharyn Alfonsi, she picked up.

A voice on the other end, generated by artificial intelligence to mimic Alfonsi’s voice, asked for some help. Clips from television had been used to clone Alfonsi’s voice. It took about five minutes.

“Elizabeth, sorry, I need my passport number because the Ukraine trip is on,” the fake Alfonsi said. “Can you read that out to me?”

The staffer did.

Terrorism in the defense of meritocracy

Time again to defend the ancien régime

America does not negotiate with terrorists.* Unless, of course, they’ve been elected to Congress.

The terrorists threatening to blow up the U.S. and world economy over paying debts the country has already incurred have demands. And hostages.

“House Republicans decided to hold the economy hostage to slash assistance for low-income Americans while protecting tax cuts for the wealthy,” asserts E.J. Dionne in The Washington Post. “That’s a factual statement, not a partisan complaint.”

The rest of Dionne’s Monday column details the hypocrisy at the heart of conservative backsliders’ demands for deficit reduction. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) wants the Trump-era tax cuts made permanent, “adding $3.5 trillion to the deficit over a decade.”

McCarthy demands cuts to domestic discretionary spending that impact poorer Americans. Republicans want work requirements before The Irresponsibles may receive government benefits or they’ll trigger their MAGA suicide vests.

“The fact that Americans with the lowest incomes are political pawns in this exercise is a moral stain on our country,” Dionne laments. But besides citing Adam Serwer’s “The Cruelty Is the Point,” he lacks the space to delve into why the GOP feels obliged to punch down.

I don’t. The Irresponsibles are always the deal-breaker. Like the caste system, meritocracy rationalizes inequality, social station, entrenched hierarchies, and rule by hereditary royalty and landed gentry. Republicans mean to protect the ownership class from the rabble.

They do know this is the United States of America, right?

I’ve written about the meritocratic jungle since my earliest days in blogging:

But fellow citizens who need help succeeding in the private sector deserve only pity, if that. It’s the law of the meritocratic jungle. Social Darwinism. If they aren’t smart enough, talented enough, disciplined enough, educated enough or well-born enough it’s because they are Irresponsibles. Helping them enables their dependency and unjustly burdens the more virtuous and successful.

Worse, a society that taxes the able to help the less able disincentivizes success by responsible conservatives, deprives them of their freedom, tilts the nation towards socialism, and fosters personal weakness.

If there’s one thing conservatives cannot abide, it’s personal weakness. Ask Bill Bennett or Rush Limbaugh.

In The Great Risk Shift Jacob Hacker explores what he dubs the “Personal Responsibility Crusade,” finding its roots in the insurance industry. Pooling risk among policyholders was once the point of insurance, like spreading the costs of national defense so that no citizen had to bear the burden of buying his own tank or fighter-bomber. One downside was an obscure insurance concept called moral hazard: “Protecting people against risks reduces the care people exercise in avoiding those risks.” It’s a potential risk the insurance industry deals with through properly designed programs.

But by the 1980s, Hacker contends, moral hazard became the conservative justification for dismantling New Deal-era programs that pool risk in the private sector.

“Insurance had been justified as a way of aiding the unfortunate – now it was criticized as a way of coddling the irresponsible. Insurance had been understood as a partial solution to social problems like unemployment and poverty in old age – now it was condemned as worsening the very problems it was meant to solve.”

Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime. Insure him against famine, and he’ll have no incentive to fish. Insure him against illness and he’ll overconsume health care, driving up health care costs and inefficiency, dragging down the economy.

Serve The Economy or perish. What’s more, terrorism in the defense of meritocracy is no vice!

*Another lie we tell “exceptional” selves.