Politico/Ipsos polls asked whether the public is taking these indictments seriously:
The survey results suggest Americans are taking the cases seriously — particularly the Justice Department’s 2020 election case — and that most people are skeptical of Trump’s claim to be the victim of a legally baseless witch hunt or an elaborate, multi-jurisdictional effort to “weaponize” law enforcement authorities against him.
Furthermore, public sentiment in certain areas — including how quickly to hold a trial and whether to incarcerate Trump if he’s convicted — is moving against the former president when compared to a previous POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll conducted in June. This latest poll was conducted from Aug. 18 to Aug. 21, roughly two-and-a-half weeks after Trump’s second federal indictment and several days after Trump was criminally charged in Fulton County. The poll had a sample of 1,032 adults, age 18 or older, who were interviewed online; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for all respondents.
Here are some of the most notable findings from our latest survey.
— Most Americans believe Trump should stand trial before the 2024 election
On Monday, Trump’s lawyers will face off against federal prosecutors before U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan over when to schedule his trial in the Justice Department’s 2020 election case — a high-stakes dispute that could have dramatic implications for the 2024 election. Federal prosecutors have proposed that the trial begin on Jan. 2, 2024, while Trump’s lawyers have countered that the trial should take place in April 2026. If Trump gets his way, that would, perhaps not coincidentally, leave him plenty of time to complete his reelection bid and, if successful, shut the case down after retaking the White House.
Americans are far closer to the Justice Department’s position than to Trump’s. Fifty-nine percent of respondents in the poll said that the federal trial in Trump’s 2020 election subversion case should take place before the 2024 Republican primaries begin early next year. A slightly higher number — 61 percent of all respondents — said that the trial should take place before the general election next November.
There was a predictable partisan split among Democrats and Republicans, with nearly 90 percent of Democratic respondents seeking an early trial date androughly a third of Republican respondents agreeing.
It was the reaction of independents, however, that may prove most ominous for Trump. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of independents said that Trump should stand trial before next November — a figure that suggests particular interest in and attentiveness to a case that effectively alleges that Trump tried to steal the last election. By way of a rough comparison, when we asked a similar question in June following Trump’s indictment by the Justice Department in Florida concerning his retention of classified documents, fewer than half of independent respondents (48 percent) said that the trial in that case should take place before next November.
About half believe he’s guilty:
I think everyone agrees that he did what they are accusing him of doing. Trump’s people think it was just politics and fully justified. Everyone else thinks it was an assault on the law and the constitution. That’s what’s going to be decided in these cases. I’m not sure people fully realize that.
This is the big problem for Trump:
— A conviction in DOJ’s 2020 election case would hurt Trump in the general election
Our latest poll also makes clear that it would be unhelpful for Trump’s presidential bid if he is federally convicted of a criminal scheme to steal the last election at the same time that he is asking the American people to send him back to the White House.
A plurality of respondents (44 percent) said that a conviction in the case would have no impact on their likelihood of supporting Trump, but the numbers tipped decisively against Trump among those who said that the result would inform their vote. Nearly one-third of respondents (32 percent) said that a conviction in the case would make them less likely to support Trump, including about one-third of independents (34 percent).
Only 13 percent of respondents said that a conviction would make them more likely to support Trump, and that figure was comprised mostly of Republicans.
I must say that’s kind of a relief. If we are so polarized that even a felony conviction (or many) wouldn’t change anyone’s mind then this country is in even worse shape than I thought.
And then there’s this:
I love how 43% of Republicans think there should be no penalty if he’s convicted. That’s not how this works I’m afraid.
Personally, I would be happy with strict house arrest for the full prison term with no right to personally communicate with the public or profit from his crimes. As much as I think he deserves to be in jail as he has so often called for other people (some of whom were innocent of the crimes and he didn’t care) it seems to me that exiling him to Mar-a-Lago without any ability to play golf or tweet or hold court or ever be involved in politics again would be enough. Jail would be a very difficult undertaking unless they build one specifically for him and his secret service detail, which is constitutionally required to protect him for the rest of his life.
Your mileage may vary on that, I understand. I might not even really believe it.
— Trump and the GOP’s ‘weaponization’ defense appears to be having limited traction
For months, Trump and his Republican allies have claimed that the Justice Department has been “weaponized” against him by President Joe Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland. We asked a series of questions in order to try to get some understanding of what Americans make of this claim. The results were decidedly mixed for team Trump.
Fifty-nine percent of respondents — including nearly two-thirds of independents — said that the Justice Department’s decision to indict Trump in the 2020 election case was based on a fair evaluation of the evidence and the law. At the same time, however, 44 percent of respondents — including 20 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of independents — said that the decision was based on trying to gain a political advantage for Biden.
In fact, more people believe Trump is guilty of weaponizing the legal system than Biden. Fifty-three percent of respondents — including 56 percent of independents — said that the Trump administration actively used the Justice Department to investigate political enemies with little or no evidence of actual wrongdoing. The comparable number for the Biden administration was 45 percent across all respondents, including 43 percent of independents.
What’s with the 20% of Democrats who think this was about gaining political advantage for Biden? This is the DOJ and the FBI we’re talking about here. They aren’t liberals, no matter what Trump says! Even Merrick Garland isn’t really a liberal. The best you can hope for is that they are apolitical.
This is kind of a killer:
— Trump is the prevailing villain in the story of his indictments
To further test whether the indictments are helping Trump, we asked respondents if they had favorable or unfavorable opinions of the actions, statements and behavior of key players in the federal cases — including not just Trump, but Biden, Garland, special counsel Jack Smith and the Justice Department more generally.
I’m not sure why only 36% see Biden’s actions as favorable since he hasn’t said a word about any of it. Maybe some Democrats want him to be more vocal? I dunno.
All in all, this is a very interesting poll. It shows that for all of Trump’s bellowing about how this is helping him, it isn’t actually true.