Month: December 2023

All the salacious details are there for a reason

Former prosecutor Harry Litman tweeted this about the Hunter Biden charges:

It’s one thing to bring more serious charges against a defendant who has refused to plead–that’s plea bargaining. But Hunter Biden had nothing to do w/ the unwinding of the plea agreement. To turn around after that and charge the same conduct as a nefarious scheme is an abuse.

There’s really no disputing that the grave charges against Hunter Biden would not have been filed v almost any other person who had gotten sober and paid back all tax and penalties. And the indictment is sleazy besides.

As a former prosecutor, I find the dovetailing of the indictment to the hackish agenda of a political party deeply troubling. Especially when the conduct is unchanged from when the prosecution was offering to plead this out to 2 misdemeanors.

Huge chunks of the 56-page indictment of Hunter Biden are about his “extravagant lifestyle,” drugs escorts etc. The relevance of this info to non-payment of taxes is tenuous in the extreme. But it certainly dirties him up.

David Weiss is a Republican who is now clearly responding to the pressure from his party and it’s pathetic.

Here’s former prosecutor Shan Wu with a full analysis:

The latest indictment of Hunter Biden adds to an embarrassing series of missteps in this case that makes the Department of Justice look petty and unable to withstand political pressure.

They look petty because Special Counsel David Weiss, who was given the new title of special counsel after already having worked on the case for five years, acts like he has hurt feelings following the spectacular public crash and burn of his attempt to plead out the case.

The pettiness seems on view in a letter from Hunter Biden’s legal team documenting Weiss’ refusal to meet prior to the tax indictment being brought. Such a refusal violates a norm in white-collar criminal defense where defense counsel are afforded a last-ditch effort to avoid indictment. No legal strategic reason exists for Weiss to turn down such a meeting unless he was concerned about wasting time, which would be ironic for a man who has spent nearly half a decade on a case. What’s one more meeting?

Weiss has no business having hurt feelings about his poorly handled plea bargain that collapsed under the commonsense questions asked by the presiding judge about the scope of the agreement and whether it was appropriate for the court—rather than the prosecution—to determine if Biden would be in compliance with the terms of his diversion agreement.

The diversion agreement would have “diverted” the gun charges from prosecution so long as Biden fulfilled certain conditions, which typically include community service and staying out of future criminal trouble. When I was a prosecutor, a failed plea bargain in open court would have necessitated some explaining back at the office, but the remedy was to go back to the drawing board. That is, unless the plea broke down because the defendant refused to admit guilt, which is not what happened in this case, as Biden was ready, willing, and able to accept criminal guilt. But if the plea broke down because of a lack of clarity or an error of law, then the solution was to fix the terms. A plea bargain is, in essence, a contract between the prosecution and defendant, and contract terms get revised all the time without the deal collapsing. But what you would never do as a prosecutor is to punish a defendant out of embarrassment or in an attempt to insulate yourself from political criticism. And Weiss faces plenty of both.

High-profile cases put a lot of pressure on both law enforcement and prosecutors, and a case involving any relative of a sitting president—much less a child of the president—is plenty high profile. Those kinds of cases require careful and thorough preparation to make sure the legal analysis is fair and can stand up to extra scrutiny. Weiss is failing on both.

Indicting Hunter Biden for tax evasion when he has already paid back the taxes smacks of unfair treatment. As former Attorney General Eric H. Holder, Jr. put it on CNN, numerous former U.S. Attorneys—both Democratic and Republican—told him that they would not have brought the tax case.

The amount is not astronomical like the case of telecommunications entrepreneur Walter Anderson, who made TIME magazine’s list of Top Ten Tax Dodgers, pled guilty and paid $400 million in penalties and fees. Perhaps more importantly, other more egregious cases have been resolved not by criminal prosecution but civilly. For example, in 2021, Roger Stone was sued by the federal government to collect over $1.5 million in federal income taxes dating back to 2007. Stone was not prosecuted, only subject to a civil suit.

In another high-profile case, a partner at a major law firm and his wife paid $7.3 million in April of this year to resolve taxes that had been unpaid between 2001 and 2006 as well as other years. Again, there was no criminal prosecution, only a civil lawsuit.

Moreover, Weiss’ indictment includes gratuitous digs at what can only be construed as Hunter Biden’s character rather than his alleged tax evasion. For example, Weiss states that Biden spent “money on drugs, escorts and girlfriends, luxury hotels and rental properties, exotic cars, clothing and other items of personal nature, in short, everything but his taxes.”

Weiss’ rhetorical flourish seems silly since I suspect most people who fail to pay the taxes also spend their money on things other than paying their taxes. Weiss’ focus on the more sensationalistic aspects of the spending seems to be a result of his wanting to play in the echo chamber of the holier-than-thou conservative right. But Biden isn’t being prosecuted for being a drug addict or engaging in prostitution. He’s being prosecuted for tax evasion.

DOJ guidelines for pursuing tax matters in criminal prosecutions emphasize seeking to “achieve maximum deterrence.” Such deterrence can certainly be achieved by prosecuting high-profile defendants. The actor Wesley Snipes comes to mind. He went to jail for three misdemeanor convictions after owing the government about $7 million in unpaid taxes and having failed to file any returns from 1999 through 2001. Snipes’ defense also begged to be made an example out of as it included the claim that the IRS was an illegitimate government agency.

A review of TIME magazine’s Top Ten Tax Dodgers shows most of them are celebrities in their own right, like Willie Nelson, Pete Rose, O.J. Simpson. Hunter Biden is not a celebrity in his own right, however, but a celebrity due only to being the son of the president of the United States. That’s a poor reason to make an example out of him.

Hunter knows what they’re doing:

President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, has accused Republicans of trying to “kill” him in an effort to undermine his father’s presidency. His death “would be a pain greater than my father could be able to handle”, the younger Biden told musician Moby in a podcast that aired on Friday.

The first of the two-part broadcast was recorded before Mr Biden was charged with nine major tax crimes on Thursday.

Hunter Biden, a recovering crack cocaine addict, was speaking from his home in Malibu, California, to Moby, whom he befriended while in recovery for drug and alcohol abuse.

“They are trying to, in their most illegitimate … but rational way, they’re trying to destroy a presidency,” he said in the episode of Moby Pod.

And David Weiss is happy to help.

The Supreme Court of Texas stayed the order that would have allowed a woman to abort a very high risk pregnancy last night. Here’s a short bio of one of the Justices, who happens to be a radical anti-abortion zealot who calls himself “The Ten Commandments Judge.”

John Devine has long been a staunch anti-abortion activist. At a June rally in Fort Worth, Devine told the crowd he had been arrested 37 times while protesting abortion clinics in the 1980s, Smith reported. Though, in a more recent interview, “he said he had been arrested during peaceful protests several times in the 1980s but did not remember how many,” Smith reported. Despite this history of activism, Devine insisted he “is still able to interpret the law impartially.”

In 2008, Devine and his wife, Nubia, showed everyone just how committed they were to the pro-life position when her seventh pregnancy endangered her life and that of the baby. The Texas Observer‘s Emily DePrang wrote about a video his campaign put out called “Elizabeth’s story.”

It documents the birth of his seventh child, Elizabeth, which his wife carried to term despite the fact that the fetus had a condition likely to kill her. She survived, and the baby died an hour later. The video opens, “What if your beliefs were so powerful, they allowed you to fearlessly risk your life for the life of your unborn child?” and concludes, “Though Elizabeth died only an hour after she was born, her life began at conception.”

That line about “fearlessly risking your life” for a child that has no chance of life is just stunning. They truly believe that a woman must be willing to die to ensure that her fatally damaged fetus can emerge from the womb and die an hour later. It’s pretty clear that these people don’t value women as anything more than a birthing vessel. It’s sickeningly grotesque.

Mrs. DeSantis makes a huge mistake. And it will cost them.

We’ve built a nationwide coalition of moms who are mobilized to help elect @RonDeSantis: Mamas for DeSantis.

While voting in the Iowa caucus is limited to registered voters in Iowa, there is a way for others to participate. I’m calling on mamas and grandmamas from all over the… pic.twitter.com/vlVLIHiiUF

— Casey DeSantis (@CaseyDeSantis) December 8, 2023

Remember: you must be a legal resident of Iowa and the precinct you live in and bring photo ID with you to participate in the #iacaucus!

Read more on our caucus site: https://t.co/gfwU3Wt44v https://t.co/lRVLBIS2aW

— Iowa GOP (@IowaGOP) December 8, 2023

Lol.

This is after Casey DeSantis was on national news making a plea for non-Iowans to vote for her husband, saying it was legal.

If there's one sober DeSantis staffer in Iowa tonight, I'd be shocked. What a disaster. https://t.co/9l2aC2tc4u

— Stuart Stevens (@stuartpstevens) December 9, 2023

They really can’t do anything right can they?

Your once and possibly future president , ladies and gentlemen:

No, you are not dreaming. That’s who half the country wants to lead it.

Oh my:

Megyn Kelly says there is “no question” that Trump is in cognitive decline, and isn’t buying his explanation about his many gaffes: “Go back and look at the clips, it wasn’t intentional .. and it’s happening to him repeatedly.” Story …https://t.co/aUHFXKDEI3

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) December 8, 2023

Beck asked Kelly if she thought Trump has cognitively “faded from where he was in 2020.” Kelly’s response:

“Yeah, I do … There’s no question Trump has lost a step. Multiple steps. He is confusing Joe Biden for Obama. I know he’s now saying he intentionally did that. Go back and look at the clips. It wasn’t intentional.”

“Look, any of us can have a slip of the tongue, but it’s happening to him repeatedly. The reference of how somebody is going to get us into World War Two, confusing countries, confusing cities where he is in, and it’s happening more and more. With all due respect to Trump, this is what happens when you are 77 years old … Are we really going to pretend that Trump is just as vibrant as he was in 2016?”

Worth repeating

“America is more than a country. America is an idea,” former Speaker Kevin McCarthy told an Oxford Union audience in late October. That idea is freedom [timestamp 7:35].

At the New York Times DealBook event last month, McCarthy repeated something else he’d said at Oxford about Americans who are the true caretakers of that idea (Washington Post):

“I became leader when we took the minority, and this was a turning point for me,” McCarthy said, describing having attended the 2019 State of the Union address.

“I’d just become leader and I’m excited and President Trump’s there. And I look over at the Democrats and they stand up. They look like America,” he told Sorkin. “We stand up. We look like the most restrictive country club in America.”

Called it:

Robert Calhoon once wrote about colonists who supported the Crown during the American Revolution. “Historians’ best estimates,” he wrote, “put the proportion of adult white male loyalists somewhere between 15 and 20 percent,” a figure not far removed from the Republican base. As many as 500,000 colonists among a population of 2.5 million never bought the founders’ “created equal” nonsense. They remained committed to a system of government by hereditary royalty and landed gentry. Powdered wigs supported by loyal subjects also carries echoes today. Even after the Treaty of Paris, most loyalists remained on these shores. Their progeny and like-minded continentals who arrived later are with us still. It is a personality type committed to maintaining the “natural” order.

Colonists who did not support the Revolution or believe in its ideals, people committed to a system of government by hereditary royalty and landed gentry, were known as Royalists. Today they are Republicans. Perhaps it takes one to know one, Kevin.

Here’s McCarthy’s statement [timestamp 3:55]:

Philip Bump draws on Daily Kos data to drive home the point.

Stop hand-wringing

People feel what they feel. Don’t tell them otherwise, suggests Dave Johnson (now blogging from across the Pond).

“Biden & Dems need to be saying, ‘We understand how hard it has been and we’ve been working on it. It is starting to turn around,’” Johnson reminds readers of Seeing the Forest. That was Bill Clinton’s message to the DNC convention that renominated Barack Obama in 2012. The economy was a wreck when Obama took over, but he’s turning it around, Clinton told the assembly:

Now, look. Here’s the challenge he faces and the challenge all of you who support him face. I get it. I know it. I’ve been there. A lot of Americans are still angry and frustrated about this economy. If you look at the numbers, you know employment is growing, banks are beginning to lend again. And in a lot of places, housing prices are even beginning to pick up.

But too many people do not feel it yet.

That was two months before the 2012 election. You know how that worked out. Given the overwhelmingly good economic numbers lately, what are the chances the public will “feel it” 9-10 months from now?

Democrats’ message needs to be “Everything is in place thanks to [Joe Biden] and things are starting to get better. You will feel it, just give it a little more time.” Don’t tell them they’re wrong, that they don’t feel what they feel, Johnson offers.

I’d amend that advice with this: Focus rather on promoting how good the economic numbers really are (“Repetition is really important. And so is repetition.“). Rather than ruminating on how negatively polls say the public feels about the economy, playing the good news on repeat can shift how people feel and help them notice it. Don’t use polls to take their temperature. Change it.

Can that work? The recent flood of alarmist reports about the coming Trump dictatorship has his top campaign officials freaking out. Repetition sure changed how they feel.

Catherine Rampell suggests we’ll all feel better soon:

Americans might be loath to believe it, but on paper, the U.S. economy is doing pretty well. So well, in fact, that we’re outperforming forecasts made even before the pandemic began.

The nation’s employers added another 199,000 jobs in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. This is slightly better than Wall Street expectations. More significantly, it means that overall employment is now 2 million jobs higher than was expected by now in forecasts made way back in January 2020 by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office:

This is pretty astounding. When the pandemic hit, many economists feared it would leave lasting scars. After the 2007-2009 Great Recession, after all, it took a long time for the job market to heal and for displaced workers to regain their footing. Yet, somehow, following a once-in-a-century public health crisis that led to record-breaking job losses, American workers didn’t just recover all the ground they’d lost. They’re doing better than ever, better than had been imagined even before this traumatic global shock.

Soon enough (and with help), people’s mood will catch up with their consumption and investing. Perhaps the public is not ready to hear “Happy Days Are Here Again” (1929), but wringing hands over public opinion polls (Democrats’ default freakout) is not helpful either.

Oh, here’s what Wikipedia says about that song:

Closely associated with Franklin D. Roosevelt‘s successful presidential campaign in 1932, the song gained prominence after a spontaneous decision by Roosevelt’s advisers to play it at the 1932 Democratic National Convention: after a dirge-like version of Roosevelt’s favorite song “Anchors Aweigh” had been repeated over and over, without enthusiasm, a participant reportedly shouted: “FOR GOD’S SAKE, HAVE THEM PLAY SOMETHING ELSE”, which caused the band to play the new song, drawing cheers and applause, and subsequently becoming the Democratic Party‘s “unofficial theme song for years to come.”

Quote Investigator offers more about this classic advice: Tell ’em what you’re going to tell ’em; then tell ’em; then tell ’em what you told ’em.

Chris Hayes is on that:

Update: Knew I’d seen this somewhere.

Surprise: Americans are starting to feel better about the economy and inflation

The University of Michigan said Friday that its consumer sentiment index jumped 13% to 69.4, as people became less worried about inflation and more optimistic about a number of issues. That not only ended the downturn but reversed the decline, returning the sentiment index to where it was in August.

No lad who has liberty for the first time, and twenty guineas in his pocket, is very sad, and Barry rode towards Dublin thinking not so much of the kind mother left alone, and of the home behind him, but of tomorrow, and all the wonders it would bring.

-from Barry Lyndon

Oh man, oh God…we’ve lost another one:

Ryan O’Neal, the boyish leading man who kicked off an extraordinary 1970s run in Hollywood with his Oscar-nominated turn as the Harvard preppie Oliver in the legendary romantic tearjerker Love Story, has died. He was 82.

O’Neal died Friday, his son Patrick O’Neal, a sportscaster with Bally Sports West in Los Angeles, reported on Instagram. He had been diagnosed with chronic leukemia in 2001 and with prostate cancer in 2012.

“As a human being, my father was as generous as they come,” Patrick wrote. “And the funniest person in any room. And the most handsome clearly, but also the most charming. Lethal combo. He loved to make people laugh. It’s pretty much his goal. Didn’t matter the situation, if there was a joke to be found, he nailed it. He really wanted us laughing. And we did all laugh. Every time. We had fun. Fun in the sun.” […]

Patrick Ryan O’Neal was born on April 20, 1941, in Los Angeles, the older son of novelist-screenwriter Charles “Blackie” O’Neal (The Three Wishes of Jamie McRuin) and actress Patricia Callaghan. He competed in Golden Gloves events in L.A. in 1956 and 1957 and compiled a boxing record of 18-4 with 13 knockouts, according to his website.

In the late 1950s, O’Neal and his family moved to Munich, and he became infatuated with the syndicated TV series Tales of the Vikings, which shot in Europe and was produced by Kirk Douglas‘ company.

According to a 1975 newspaper account, he wrote to another producer, George Cahan, on the show: “I am six feet tall, and with a false beard I will look as much like a Viking as any actor on the set … I may be the Gary Cooper of tomorrow.”

O’Neal went on to perform as a stuntman on the series.

After appearing on such shows as The Many Loves of Dobie Gillis, The Untouchables, Leave It to Beaver and My Three Sons, O’Neal co-starred opposite Richard Egan on Empire, a 1962-63 NBC Western set in New Mexico.

O’Neal would go on to land a choice role on the drama series Peyton Place, appearing in 500 episodes from 1964 to 1969. His big screen breakout was starring alongside Ali MacGraw in Arthur Hiller’s 1970 tear-jerker Love Story; not a personal favorite of mine, but a huge box office hit that assured him movie star status for the remainder of that decade.

Honestly, I wouldn’t call him a method actor…but O’Neal was undeniably a movie star, in the old school sense; I might even venture, “laconic”, much like “the Gary Cooper of tomorrow” that he once aspired to be. A toast to a fine career, and all the wonders that it brought him.

Here’s some recommended viewing:

Barry Lyndon – Stanley Kubrick’s beautifully photographed, leisurely paced adaptation of William Makepeace Thackeray’s rags-to-riches-to-rags tale about a roguish Irishman (Ryan O’Neal) who grifts his way into the English aristocracy is akin to watching 18th-century paintings sumptuously spring to life (funnily enough, its detractors tend to liken it to “oil paintings” as well, but for entirely different reasons). The cast includes Marisa Berenson, Patrick Magee, Leonard Rossiter and Leon Vitali.

This magnificent 1975 film has improved with age, like a fine wine; successive viewings prove the stories about Kubrick’s obsession with the minutest of details were not exaggerated-every frame is steeped in verisimilitude. Michael Hordern’s delightfully droll voice over work as The Narrator rescues the proceedings from sliding into staidness.

The Driver -Walter Hill’s spare and hard-boiled neo-noir about a professional getaway driver (Ryan O’Neal) who plays cat-and-mouse with an obsessed cop out to nail him (Bruce Dern) and a dissatisfied customer who is now out to kill him. “Spare” would also be a good word to describe O’Neal’s character (billed in the credits simply as: The Driver), who utters but 350 words of dialog in the entire film. O’ Neal is perfectly cast, exuding a Zen-like cool. Also with Isabelle Adjani. One of my favorite 70s crime thrillers, and an obvious inspiration for Nicolas Winding Refn’s 2011 film Drive (my review).

Nickelodeon -Peter Bogdanovich’s love letter to the silent film era, depicting the trials and tribulations of indie filmmakers, circa 1910. It leans a bit heavy on the slapstick at times, but is bolstered by charming performances by a great cast that includes Ryan O’Neal, Stella Stevens, Burt Reynolds, John Ritter, and Tatum O’Neal. It’s beautifully photographed by László Kovács. Anyone who truly loves the movies will find the denouement quite moving.

Paper Moon -Two years after The Last Picture Show, director Peter Bogdanovich had the audacity to shoot yet another B&W film-which was going against the grain by the early 70s. This outing, however, was not a bleak drama. Granted, it is set during the Great Depression, but has a much lighter tone, thanks to precocious 9 year-old Tatum O’Neal, who steals every scene she shares with her dad Ryan (which is to say, nearly every scene in the film).

The O’Neals portray an inveterate con artist/Bible salesman and a recently orphaned girl he is transporting to Missouri (for a fee). Along the way, the pair discover they are a perfect tag team for bilking people out of their cookie jar money. Entertaining road movie, with the built-in advantage of a natural acting chemistry between the two leads.

Also on hand: Madeline Kahn (wonderful as always), John Hillerman, P.J. Johnson, and Noble Willngham. Ace DP László Kovács is in his element; he was no stranger to road movies (Easy Rider, Five Easy Pieces). Alvin Sargent adapted his screenplay from Joe David Brown’s novel, “Addie Pray”.

Tough Guys Don’t Dance – If “offbeat noir” is your thing, this is your kind of film. Ryan O’Neal plays an inscrutable ex-con with a conniving “black widow” of a wife, who experiences five “really bad days” in a row, involving drugs, blackmail and murder. Due to temporary amnesia, however, he’s not sure of his own complicity (O’Neal begins each day by writing the date on his bathroom mirror with shaving cream-keep in mind, this film precedes Memento by 13 years.)

Noir icon Lawrence Tierny (cast here 5 years before Tarantino tapped him for Reservoir Dogs) is priceless as O’Neal’s estranged father, who is helping him sort out events (it’s worth the price of admission when Tierny barks “I just deep-sixed two heads!”).

Equally notable is a deliciously demented performance by B-movie trouper Wings Hauser as the hilariously named Captain Alvin Luther Regency. Norman Mailer’s “lack” of direction has been duly noted over the years, but his minimalist style works. The film has a David Lynch vibe at times (which could be due to the fact that Isabella Rossellini co-stars, and the soundtrack was composed by Lynch stalwart Angelo Badalamenti). A guilty pleasure.

What’s Up, Doc? – Peter Bogdanovich’s 1972 film is a love letter to classic screwball comedies of the 30s and 40s (the most obvious influence being Bringing Up Baby). Ryan O’Neal and Barbara Streisand have wonderful chemistry as the romantic leads, who meet cute and become involved in a hotel mix-up of four identical suitcases that rapidly snowballs into a series of increasingly preposterous situations for all concerned (as occurs in your typical screwball comedy).

The screenplay was co-written by Buck Henry, David Newman and Robert Benton. The fabulous cast includes Madeline Kahn, Kenneth Mars, Austin Pendleton and Michael Murphy. In his second collaboration with the director, cinematographer László Kovács works his usual magic with the San Francisco locale.

The Wild Rovers – Blake Edwards made a western? Yes, he did, and not a half-bad one at that. A world-weary cowhand (William Holden) convinces a younger (and somewhat dim) co-worker (Ryan O’Neal) that since it’s obvious that they’ll never really get ahead in their present profession, they should give bank robbery a shot. They get away with it, but then find themselves on the run, oddly, not so much from the law, but from their former employer (Karl Malden), who is mightily offended that anyone who worked for him would do such a thing. Episodic and leisurely paced, but ambles along quite agreeably, thanks to the charms of the two leads, and the beautiful, expansive photography by Philip Lathrop. Ripe for rediscovery.

More reviews at Den of Cinema

— Dennis Hartley

Baby monkey!

There is a new, tiny face at the San Diego Zoo. A De Brazza’s monkey was born Oct. 28 to parents Lillie and Augustus, and it is the first De Brazza’s monkey born at the Zoo in 26 years. The little primate, whose gender has not yet been determined, can be seen holding tightly to its very attentive mother’s chest while they bond. In the next few weeks, the infant is expected to start walking and climbing. It will stay close to its mother until it is weaned, at around 1 year old.

The DC Circuit speaks

The gag order in the January 6th case stands. Trump will be allowed to personally insult and threaten Jack Smith and the Judge but witnesses and federal employees are off limits. They write:

“We do not allow such an order lightly. Mr. Trump is a former President and current candidate for the presidency, and there is a strong public interest in what he has to say. But Mr. Trump is also an indicted criminal defendant, and he must stand trial in a courtroom under the same procedures that govern all other criminal defendants. That is what the rule of law means.”

Here is his response:

Waaaaaaah!!!

There was more good news about the economy today:

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday showed the unemployment rate was 3.7% for the month, down from 3.9% in October. The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, an uptick from 150,000 the previous month as striking auto workers and Hollywood actors came back to the workforce.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected job gains of 185,000 with unemployment holding steady from the prior month at 3.9%.

Wages, a closely watched indicator for inflation and a gauge of how much leverage workers have in the labor market, increased 0.4% on a monthly basis and 4.1% over last year; economists had expected wages to rise 0.3% over last month and 4% over last year.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate ticked higher to 62.8%, up from 62.7% the month prior, while average weekly hours worked moved up slightly from 34.3 to 34.4.

The largest jobs increases in Friday’s report were seen in healthcare, where 77,000 jobs were added. Employment in government rose by 49,000, reaching its pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality rose by 40,000.

Labor market data released earlier this week had reinforced a narrative in the market for a so-called soft landing where inflation reaches the Fed’s 2% goal without a full blown economic slowdown.

And yet, Americans are still saying the economy is terrible. In fact a majority say we are in a recession! Now, some of that is just partisanship. Republicans will say it regardless. But it isn’t just them. Democrats are telling pollsters the same thing.

However, take a look at the public’s actions if you want to see how they really feel. Here’s economist Justin Wolfers on twitter:

There’s no question people are telling pollsters they’re miserable about the economy. But riddle me this: Why can’t we find evidence of this pessimism in anything other that public opinion polls? Every non-poll based indicator of confidence suggests folks are optimistic.

Take consumption. If folks were worried about their economic future, you might think they would be squirrelling money away for the hard times coming. But they’re spending like they expect ongoing economic strength.

Or investment. If our future were grim, businesses wouldn’t want to invest to serve a shrinking market. But they’re investing at robust rates.

I think of starting a new business as the ultimate leap of faith. You’re pushing your chips across the table to bet that you’ll be able to find willing customers. And people are starting businesses (real businesses, not just gig jobs) at near record rates.

Or look at quits, which remain high relative to pre-pandemic norms. When you’re scared that the economy is terrible, you don’t quit your job. When you think jobs are plentiful, you think that maybe it’s worth taking the risk of searching for something better.

Inflation has caused real pain for lots of families. But take a look at inflation expectations and you’ll see that, on average, most folks understand that inflation is returning to normal rates.

What’s another forward-looking indicator of our future economic health? Say, stocks? They’re a bet on future corporate earnings, and so should rise only when we become more optimistic about our economic future. The S&P 500 is up 40% over its pre-pandemic level.

“If the economy were as good as many economists say, wouldn’t you expect Democrats to have done well in midterm and off-year elections?”

Heck, one might even look at election results for evidence that folks were unhappy…

None of this is to deny that some folks are feeling pain. I’m describing broad macroeconomic averages, and there are always some folks doing a bit better and some doing a bit worse. But note: Inequality is also falling, so these broad gains are going to those who need them!

Lemme conclude with a challenge: Polls suggest Americans are miserable about their economic future. But actual misery would also shape a range of other behaviors. Is there any evidence—outside of polls— consistent with the hypothesized pessimism?

No, there is no evidence. This is all about vibes not reality. It’s possible that if the media continues to report the good news that over time people will begin to match their personal actions with what they think about the economy. But I don’t know. There has been decades of propaganda that only Republicans can have a good economy even though the literal opposite is almost always true.

Here is a quick reality check. Feel free to send it around to your relatives and friends who think old Joe is a miserable failure: