Skip to content

Month: July 2024

Developing Story Still Developing

Published by Tom Sullivan on July 14, 2024

Gun violence is a feature not a bug

What took so long?

Someone fired shots from a nearby rooftop at a presidential candidate last night in Pennsylvania, killing one spectator and leaving two critically injured. A Secret Service sniper killed the shooter. He was not carrying ID, but has been identified. The candidate walked away with a nicked ear, though it’s not clear if from a bullet or from a glass shard blown off a teleprompter. The assassination attempt failed:

The gunman who attempted to assassinate former President Donald J. Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday was identified by the F.B.I. as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old from Bethel Park, Pa., but officials released no additional information about him.

“This remains an active and ongoing investigation,” the F.B.I. said in a statement early Sunday.

The gunman did not have a criminal history reflected in Pennsylvania’s public court records, and officials said they had not identified a motive. A voter-registration record showed that Mr. Crooks was registered as a Republican, though federal campaign-finance records show he donated $15 to the Progressive Turnout Project, a liberal voter turnout group, through the Democratic donation platform ActBlue in January 2021.

President Biden condemned the violence in a brief statement:

Addressing the nation about two hours after the shooting, Biden said he was relieved that Trump is reportedly “doing well.” He said he had been unable to reach Trump before his remarks, but the White House said he did speak to Trump several hours later.

“We cannot allow this to be happening,” Biden said. “The idea that there’s violence in America like this is just unheard of.”

Biden, speaking without a teleprompter, said he was waiting for additional information before formally calling the attack an attempted assassination on the former president.

“I have an opinion, but I don’t have any facts,” he told reporters, pledging to provide updates as he learns more.

The attempt on Trump’s life represents a significant security failure.

Two dead (including the suspect), two seriously wounded, and a presidential candidate injured. Except for the occupation of last victim, just another Saturday night in the U.S. in 2024. This political season will get worse from here.

Here’s what I know. With a well-fed conspiracy culture entrenched with Trump’s help, one of my first reactions was was it staged? (They’ve got me doing it!) Whatever information comes out about the shooter, it will be spun on the right as “fake news” or some Deep State conspiracy. (Former Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale floated the “deep state conspiracy” theory within about 90 minutes.) The former WWF showman got some iconic images of himself with fist raised as he was led away. They are sure to show up in posters and tee shirts within hours. (See above.)

The atmosphere of fear, distrust, and political hatred is sure to worsen from here, not give America pause for reflection. If Project 2025 was meant to be the vehicle for Trump’s revenge and retribution, now add angry justification to the recipe. You know he will.

To borrow an old line from a friend, all in all, I wish it hadn’t happened.

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

The Reaction

Published by digby on July 13, 2024

Someone tried to shoot Trump today. They didn’t get him, although reports are saying his ear was cut by some flying glass from his teleprompter. Two others were shot, however, and the shooter was as well.

We don’t know yet about motives. But we do know this:

Oh really?

How about this:

And you can see where Trump wanted them to go with his dramatic fist rise and blood on his face:

The race is scrambled again and I have no idea where it will lead.

Yes Virginia, The Lying Is A Problem

Published by digby on July 13, 2024

Greg Sargent at TNR makes an important observation about why the polls remain so close:

A new Marist poll takes the novel step of asking registered voters which is more off-putting in an occupant of the Oval Office: dishonesty or excessive age. The results are surprising, and along with other polling along these lines, it should influence how Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s relative qualifications for the presidency are covered from here on out.

The poll asked: Which is more concerning in a president, someone who doesn’t tell the truth, or someone who might be too old to serve? The results were lopsided: By 68 to 32 percent, respondents were more concerned about the lying than the aging. Given the relentless media focus on presidential age of late, that’s simply remarkable.

While the poll doesn’t directly compare Trump and Biden on that particular question, it also finds that 52 percent of Americans say Biden has the “character to serve as president,” whereas only 43 percent say this about Trump. Fifty-six percent say Trump lacks the character to serve, which surely reflects public perceptions of Trump’s dishonesty.

[…]

Voters grasp Trump’s world-historical levels of dishonesty. This week’s Pew poll found that only 36 percent of voters view Trump as “honest.” By contrast, 48 percent view Biden that way—not good enough, clearly, but Biden’s large advantage here is especially notable given that as president, he has been subjected to a far harsher media spotlight for the last four years.

What the new Marist poll adds to this debate is the idea that voters see excessive lying as a serious problem in a president. Yet ask yourself this: How often is Trump’s lying covered that way? Trump’s dishonesty is rarely treated as a sign of his temperamental unfitness for the presidency. Biden’s age, of course, is constantly covered as an important factor in determining his fitness for the office. Biden’s age should be covered this way, to be clear. But so should Trump’s relentless lying.

The key distinction here is between mental unfitness for the presidency (where Biden does very badly, relative to Trump), and temperamental unfitness for that majestic office. On the latter, Quinnipiac found earlier this year Biden does significantly better than Trump does, with an extraordinary 61 percent saying Trump is temperamentally unfit for the presidency.

Temperamental unfitness also matters! And honesty is central to that.

He goes on to ask how the news media could improve its coverage of this in a way that frames it as the threat it really is, admitting that it’s not easy. News analysis that discusses this with the seriousness it deserves would be a good start. And as he says, the one thing it should stop doing, right now, is treating it as “savvy or well-executed politics.”

Note this bizarre passage from a recent Times piece:

At his marathon rallies, Mr. Trump, using a teleprompter but often going on riffs without it, speaks for upward of 90 minutes. He tells outrageous lies. He employs hateful language. He mixes up names, dates and places.

But the bombastic former president—who at 78 is three years younger than Mr. Biden and with his heavyset frame appears far more physically imposing—does it all with prodigious stamina. Polls show that voters have fewer concerns about Mr. Trump’s age than Mr. Biden’s.

Trump spews lies and hate regularly, but, hey, he does it with an effective display of performative gusto! Oh, well—it’s all just an inevitable background condition of our politics in the Trump era. But news organizations can choose to not treat Trump’s lying this way, and find a better approach. Another problem: Media fact checks are often cordoned off from other types of stories. There has to be some way to better integrate fact-checking into the daily drumbeat of news coverage.

There’s more at the link and well worth reading.

Those questions in the Marist poll caught my attention as well. I think it’s vitally important for these pollsters to start wondering why it is that despite the overwhelming concern people have over Biden’s age, he is still tied in all the polls. It seems counter intuitive. But when you look at how people feel about Orange Hitler’s character defects, it makes more sense.

Sure, everyone wishes the candidates were younger. But both of them are old and people are more concerned about Biden’s age than Trump’s for some reason. But the race remains very close and I think it has a lot to do with the fact that Donald Trump is a lying, criminal demagogue who attempted a coup which makes him completely unfit to be president again.

Big Swinging Hands

Published by digby on July 13, 2024

According to this breathless Axios report, the fall election is the “boys vs. girls” election. I could be mistaken but it sure sounds like they think the “boys” are the big winners in that contest:

  • Top Trump advisers tell us that when the Republican National Convention opens in Milwaukee on Monday, the contrast they want pervading social media is ultimately “weak vs. strong.” Onstage, it’ll be the testosterone party. It’s Donald Trump’s chest-beating macho appeals vs. Joe Biden’s softer, reproductive-rights-dominated, all-gender inclusivity.

[…]

Share of 18- to 29-year-olds who identify as liberal, by gender

Among 1,000+ U.S. adults 18 to 29 years old surveyed annually from 1999-2023

The line chart shows the percentage of American men and women aged 18-29 who identify as liberal from 1999 to 2023. The data reveals a general upward trend over the years, with women consistently identifying as liberal at a higher rate than men. The gap grew in the 2010s and beyond, with 40% of women identifying as liberal compared to 25% of men in 2023.

In theory, most of these trends should favor Biden.

[…]

But in most polls, Trump has led in most of the six big swing states — thanks largely to the swing in men toward Trump.

  • John Della Volpe — Harvard Institute of Politics polling director, and director of Harvard Youth Poll — tells us: “For a new generation of young male voters whose first impression of Donald Trump was almost a decade ago (when they were middle school age), he’s an anti-hero sticking it to a system viewed as slow, ineffectual and corrupt.”
  • “That image has been echoed tens of millions of times through social media, podcasters, in gamer and other communities,” Della Volpe says.

There’s more. And it’s unpleasant to read. Trump’s “surge” among men after his “frail” performance by 23 points and Biden’s “ticked up” 8 points after the debate according to the Oracle of Delphi New York Times/Siena poll.

The GOP convention is apparently looking to exploit this alleged advantage by featuring wife beaters and golf pros:

Dana White, the macho president of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), the hottest sport for testosterone-charged fans, will introduce Trump, whose rhetoric and policies shoot right into the bloodstream of his male-dominated base. White, a controversial figure in his own right, apologized last year after being filmed slapping his wife at a nightclub.

The “everyday Americans” who’ve been announced as speakers include typical convention fare (a rancher, a steamfitters union leader, three decorated war heroes) — plus John Nieporte, head golf pro at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, and Carrie Ruiz, golf general manager at Trump National Doral in Miami.

Update: Tucker Carlson will have a prime-time slot, the N.Y. Times scoops.

Ooh baby. I’m not sure how the reporter meant this next sentence but I know how it sounds:

Can you imagine a hunter, a cage-fight promoter and a convicted felon dazzling the DNC? They’d be canceled before they entered the arena.

“Canceled” Oh yuck, amirite?

He goes on to say that the Dems plan to offer a “softer celebration” of diversity and featuring abortion rights “the one topic” they think won them the off year elections. (That’s not ttue — they were won on a whole host of issues, including a strong resistance to the fascist takeove of our democracy. I guess you can call that “soft” but it really isn’t. At all. )

Anyway, who cares about that:

Trump’s first public appearance after his felony convictions (based on hush money to a porn star) was at a UFC fight in Newark, where he and White were greeted by a rip-roaring crowd of mostly young men.

The thunderous and carefully choreographed entrance culminated in a viral handshake with UFC commentator Joe Rogan — whose millions of podcast listeners skew 80% male.

Not long after, Trump appeared on the popular podcast All-In, co-hosted by four towel-snapping dudes. Tech bros are a rising group of swing voters for Trump.

Trump’s so cool. A real macho dude. His orange make-up is especially manly along with this “Flock of Seagulls” shellacked yellow hair. In fact, if you didn’t know better he might even be a drag queen which we know all these super masculine Trump lovers greatly admire.

By the way:

  • There are 3 million more women in America than men.
  • And they almost always vote in larger numbers: In 2020, 74% of adult U.S. women said they voted, vs. 71% of men. That split has held true for 40+ years — in every presidential election beginning in 1980, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.
  • There’s also a big split in registration: 89 million women told census surveyors they were registered in 2020, vs. 79 million men. (Explore the data.)

But whatevs.

The Project 2025 Threat Is Breaking Through

Published by digby on July 13, 2024

I’m not sure exactly how it happened, but suddenly everyone’s talking about Project 2025. Maybe it really was Taraji P Henson talking about it on the BET awards and John Oliver laying out the stakes on his show, in which case we owe them a debt of gratitude. Whatever it was it’s now circulating in the mainstream and nothing couple be more important.

Here’s one example and you won’t believe where it was published:

A sweeping proposal for how Donald Trump should handle a second term in office has sparked concern for its implications on the role of federal government and its calls to eliminate a number of basic human rights.

The 2025 Presidential Transition Project, more commonly known as Project 2025, released a 900-page manifesto last year titled “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise.” The policy guidebook — compiled by the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation in partnership with more than 100 other conservative organizations — lays out a far-right, Christian nationalist vision for America that would corrode the separation of church and state, replace nonpartisan government employees with Trump loyalists and bolster the president’s authority over independent agencies.

Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts, a rumored candidate for Trump’s chief of staff in a second term, promoted his group’s extreme positions during a July interview, saying, “We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”

Shortly after Roberts’ controversial interview, Trump attempted to distance himself from Project 2025, saying on Truth Social that he knows “nothing” about it and has “no idea who is behind it,” before adding that he disagrees with some of its propositions.

While Project 2025 is not formally a part of Trump’s campaign platform, it has been led and supported by several influential people in his orbit. The project’s top leaders all worked in Trump’s White House and a number of the manifesto’s contributors also served in the Trump administration, including but not limited to former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson and imprisoned former trade adviser Peter Navarro.

Donald Trump Suggests He Could Be a Three-Term President at NRA Convention

Equally damaging to Trump’s claim that he is unfamiliar with Project 2025 is that he worked closely with the Heritage Foundation when he was first elected president. He was provided a similar “Mandate for Leadership” back in 2016, and enacted nearly two-thirds of the group’s proposals within his first year in office.

The Heritage Foundation also reportedly played a behind-the-scenes role on Trump’s presidential transition team and had a significant hand in staffing the administration.

Olivia Troye, a former adviser to Mike Pence, called Trump’s denial of Project 2025 “ludicrous” in a CNN interview. “I think what this is telling us is that Donald Trump knows that what is written in this plan is so extreme that it is damaging to his possibility of getting elected,” she said.

People Magazine published that. And it goes on to document the atrocities in the document in detail. (You should read it!)

Nothing could be more important than reminding normal everyday Americans who may not be glued to politics twitter or CNN that Trump is a monster and his people are extremist nuts.



Shamelessness Is Their Superpower

Published by digby on July 13, 2024

I could go on. This is happening all over the country. It’s astonishing just how shameless they really are. But because they have their own media they know that their voters will never hear the truth.

Republicans just blocked protection for contraception

Published by Tom Sullivan on July 13, 2024

Not joking

Today is Day 3 of Netroots Nation-Baltimore.

A Friday breakout session titled “Amplify: Getting Louder in 2024” featured ads written and tested to move audiences on key issues.

Humor is an important way to grab viewers’ attention. But it’s hard to do irony, explained panelist Anat Shenker-Osorio. The ad above generated eye rolls when first tested. Audiences thought it an exaggeration, unbelievable. Creators had to add the end cards to explain that this joke is no joke.

Republicans blocked a bill to protect access to contraception on June 5.

It’s one reason why health care advocate Laura Packard is traveling around the country with a giant, inflatable IUD.

More Amplify ads are here. They are free for you to use (except in Arizona). “All videos have been tested to ensure they not only persuade our audiences but move them to action. This “mobisuasion” approach is meant to break through the noise and mobilize voters in our base to repeat our message.”

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

They Want To Rule … You!

Published by Tom Sullivan on July 13, 2024

Start shouting it

MAGA Republicans don’t want to govern They want to rule … You! Marc Elias was on MSNBC Friday with Nicolle Wallace raising the alarm again about Project 2025 [timestamp 5:05]*:

“…I think we need to divide [the Project 2025] policy agenda into two pieces.  There is the substantive policies which, honestly, I don’t think Donald Trump cares about, one way or the other.  I suspect he is not even familiar with them or, if he is, he may agree or disagree with some of them.  And then there are the process policies, and that is where Donald Trump sees the action, because the process pieces are what allows him to effectuate his desire to be a dictator.  Not for a day.  Not for a week.  But to be an authoritarian ruler, that he can do whatever he wants, can run government with his cronies in charge, and have everyone in the executive branch at his beck and call.  He will go after his enemies.  He will seek vengeance.  He will unleash not just the Department of Justice, but he will unleash the IRS, the DHS, it’ll be permitting.  And he wants to be able to control government…as a tool of his corrupt vision of America.  So should people be putting tens of millions of dollars into educating the public about Project 2025?  I’d say no, they should be putting billions of dollars in educating the public about Project 2025.  The fact is that we are facing an existential crisis of democracy, and there is not the organized, coordinated, well-funded, serious effort to understand that the other side is not playing a game of propaganda.  They are playing for keeps, and their idea of keeps is to undermine democracy for a generation or more.”

A friend notes that while the barbarians are at the gates, Democrats in leadership are more worried about protecting their jobs than protecting the country and you from facing a dictatorial regime Republicans have in mind. They have one gear and what you’re seeing is it. They will not or cannot think outside the box.

Republicans are playing for keeps.

DO YOUR PART. Raise the alarm via every platform you have. Retweet the Lincoln Project and Biden-Harris HQ posts about Project 2025. Tell your friends, the people serving you lattes, etc.

* Thanks to CHS for transcribing Elias.

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

Friday Night Soother

Published by digby on July 12, 2024

Philadelphia Zoo is proud to announce the birth of a critically endangered Sumatran orangutan, the first birth of this species at the Zoo in 15 years, and a significant birth to the population of these animals.

Born to the Zoo’s 31-year-old female Tua and 28-year-old male, Sugi, on June 26, the infant continues to look strong, and Tua continues to be an excellent mother, nursing and holding the baby at all times. The sex of the infant has not been determined and a name has not been chosen. Mom and baby are currently setting their own schedule for when they will be visible to guests. They have access to their indoor habitat where visitors may get a glimpse of them but also have access to their bedroom space to spend time alone.

The Zoo is planning to have their big public debut sometime in mid-August and invites everyone to join. More details on the celebration to come soon. The baby’s birth is a part of the Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA) Species Survival Plan (SSP) breeding program to ensure the survival of Sumatran orangutans and maintain a genetically diverse population. Sumatran orangutans are listed as critically endangered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with a population of 14,000 left on the island of Sumatra. Primary threats include deforestation and population fragmentation.

“It is a joy to be able to share this wonderful news with the greater Philadelphia region and the world,” says Vice President of Animal Well-Being and Conservation Rachel Metz. “This critically endangered species is rapidly losing habitat largely due to deforestation as a result of an increased demand for logging, palm oil, and other natural resources located in their habitats. Working with the Association of Zoos and Aquariums to maintain a genetically healthy population in human care is vital to the survival of this species.”

“Our entire Zoo Community and those that work closest with our orangutans are thrilled to watch Tua become a mother again and watch this baby grow,” says the Andrew J. Baker Curator of Primates and Small Mammals Michael Stern. “It is an honor to care for and work with these animals, and we all feel the magnitude this birth has in the protection of this species.”

“This successful outcome is a testament to the animal care, nutrition and veterinary teams that have worked with Tua to greatly improve her health over the last eight years,” says Director of Animal Health Dr. Donna Ialeggio. “Finding practical strategies to both maintain a healthy weight and treat her chronic Orangutan Respiratory Disease Syndrome with twice daily nebulization therapies are a testament to the ingenuity and dedication of our staff.”

In 2009, Tua successfully gave birth to and raised one female offspring, Batu. Batu stayed with Tua and Sugi at the Zoo through 2021. When the time was right and she and her family showed the behavioral signs it was time for Batu to leave her family, the SSP paired her with a male at Woodland Park Zoo in

Seattle, Washington, where she is now expecting her first baby this September. In 1928, Philadelphia Zoo was the first to successfully breed orangutans. Since then, the Zoo has had 19 more successful births.

Orangutan babies are born after an 8-month gestation and are totally dependent on their mothers. The baby is able to cling to its mother’s fur. Babies will nurse from their mothers for up to 6 years, but can start eating solid foods at 4 months old. Offspring will stay with their moms until they reach adolescence at 7 to 10 years old. In the wild, fathers typically don’t play a role in raising the young; in zoos, depending on personality, many orangutans do enjoy living together with their mate. After allowing time for Tua and the baby to bond, we will allow Tua, the baby and dad Sugi to be together if they choose to be. Tua and Sugi live together most of the time.

Sumatran orangutans live in primary and secondary forests of Sumatra, an island of Indonesia. They are the only members of the great ape family to spend most of their time off the ground. Their legs are short, but they have long, muscular arms to help them climb high in the trees. They primarily eat fruits, but also eat leaves, inner bark and various types of non-leafy vegetation. Orangutans are the most solitary of the great apes, but they exhibit a wide range of sociality across their range and may be extremely social when they do associate with other orangutans.

Adopt an Orangutan

Adopt a Sumatran orangutan and directly support the Zoo’s conservation efforts here and across the globe.