Recent polling shows Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is beating Republican nominee Donald Trump among Pennsylvania voters — a brand new poll by Quinnipiac University, for example, puts her four points ahead. That represents a significant change from when President Joe Biden was still at the top of the ticket.
However, a poll by TelevisaUnivision’s Strategy & Insights provided to WHYY News prior to its publication reveals that shift may have been particularly significant among Hispanic voters in the state. Whereas 39% of Hispanic voters in the Commonwealth said they definitely planned to vote for Biden just before his announcement, 49% now say the same about Harris.
That checks out, according to Sarina Torres, 23, of Allentown.
“I think a lot of that shift comes from Latina voters,” Torres, a college student and movement politics organizer, told WHYY News. “It’s more exciting to vote for a woman of color.”
The TelevisaUnivision poll provides a rare look into voter reactions to Biden being replaced by Harris atop the Democratic ticket. The poll was already being conducted when Biden made his announcement, and researchers were able to record the immediate change in public opinion. Trump saw a marginal gain in votes in his head-to-head contest against the Democratic nominee.
Kathy Whitlock, VP of Strategy & Insights at TelevisaUnivision, warned that it’s still too early to make concrete predictions, but said the poll also gives key insights into a growing voting bloc that may impact the results in what is expected to be a close race in Pennsylvania.
“In the past, it was a virtual tie and this breathed new blood into this cycle,” she said.
Every single person at a Trump rally will tell you that the reverse of this chart is true, because that’s what Trump & Fox/Newsmax tells them. They live in an alternate angertainment fact-free reality. They believe commie democrats have stopped fossil fuel production. pic.twitter.com/SZR6iCjvbX
Will this unreality last after Trump? I suspect it will.The precursors were talk radio and Roger Ailes’ Fox. They aren’t coming back to earth any time soon. They’ve been orbiting Bizarroworld for decades now.
Donald Trump has privately expressed faith in his campaign leadership and no firings are currently expected, but senior advisers find themselves in the most vulnerable moment as they struggle to frame effective attacks against Kamala Harris, according to multiple people familiar with the matter.
The past month, starting with Joe Biden’s withdrawal and his endorsement of Harris to succeed him, which propelled her to draw roughly even in key swing state polls, has easily been the most unstable moment for the Trump campaign since its formal launch in late 2022.
In that period, Trump has often committed one unforced error after another as he tries to frame arguments against Harris, struggled to break through the news cycle hyping Democrats’ enthusiasm, and suddenly found himself on the defensive with a narrow window left until November.
The sudden difficulty for the Trump campaign to lay a glove on Harris has led to Trump’s allies seeing an opening for the first time to openly challenge decision-making by senior aides and privately challenge whether some advisers should remain in their positions or be sidelined.
And the past month has been bad enough for the Trump campaign that advisers have taken those challenges – whether from enemies real or perceived – as serious threats or slights that necessitate devoting time and effort to slap down.
In a statement referring to the campaign chiefs Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, a Trump spokesperson said: “As President Trump said, he thinks Ms Wiles and Mr LaCivita are doing a phenomenal job and any rumors to the contrary are false and not rooted in reality.
Uh huh. Sure.
Trump doesn’t really seem to be engaged enough with his campaign to care to tell you the truth. He’s obsessed with his assassination attempt and the fact that Joe Biden isn’t his opponent anymore. To the extent he cares at all, he’s convinced that he can persuade the courts that the election was stolen and take power whether he wins or loses. Or maybe he just wants to whine about the election being stolen and hold court at Maralago with the ragged remainder of his cult until the end of his days.
Honestly, I’m not convinced he really wants to be president again, he just wants to prove that he isn’t a loser. Now that he knows he can convince nearly half the country of that without having to prove it, he may just be satisfied with saying that he won without having to actually do anything. He is almost 80, after all.
I’ve been pointing this out for a while, but now the media is noticing: Trump is relying on his “election integrity” goons to intimidate voters.. And if that doesn’t work, they’ll use the chaos they create to contest the election. They aren’t even trying to legitimately win.
Some Republicans worry that Trump’s focus on preventing a “rigged” election has hurt the party’s ground game, the get-out-the-vote operations that can be crucial in an election as close as this one.
Trump’s “election integrity” team also has raised concerns among Democrats about potential voter intimidation at the polls.
If Trump loses on Nov. 5, the election teams would be his evidence collectors for what almost certainly would be a barrage of legal challenges — and calls for state officials not to certify the election results.
Early on, Trump told his team to pour its resources into “election integrity” efforts, saying that he’d take care of generating excitement and turning out voters for his campaign against President Biden.
But now that Biden has stepped aside, Trump faces an invigorated Democratic ticket led by Vice President Kamala Harris, who’s benefitting from the robust ground operation the Biden-Harris campaign built in swing states.
The difference between the Harris and Trump door-to-door campaigns is evident in several states, especially the seven swing states likely to decide the election — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Harris’ team says 330,000 people have worked as volunteers since she announced her campaign last month. The campaign has about 1,500 staffers.
After months of declining to specify the scope of Trump’s ground operations, Trump campaign political director James Blair posted on X that the campaign has hundreds of paid staffers.
Blair told Axios the campaign has 14,000 trained volunteers or “Trump Force 47 Captains” in battleground states. He added that the operation has more volunteers but would not elaborate. Blair also disputed the size of Harris’ volunteer force, calling it “fake numbers on a spreadsheet.”
Trump is relying on Turning Point USA, the Sentinel Action Fund, conservative activist Scott Presler’s group Early Vote Action, and the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s network of churches and Elon Musk’s America PAC to get out the vote. Reports are theat none of them have a clue what they’re doing.
Meanwhile Trump’s campaign has allegedly trained about 160,000 “poll watchers”
At Trump rallies in swing states, large signs with QR codes asking attendees to sign up to “Protect the Vote” are everywhere.
RNC chair Michael Whatley told Axios the goal is to have 5,000 “election integrity volunteers” in each battleground state.
Whatley also told Axios their GOTV operation is aimed at people who haven’t voted before. Maybe they should just start handing out cash?
It’s possible this is all bluster. If their amateur hour of a convention is any example, this campaign is not exactly first rate. But Trump has said repeatedly that there’s no need for a GOTV operation because he is all that’s needed to get his people out to the polls. He certainly believes that. But his rallies aren’t really pulling like they used to and it’s possible that the show has gone on just a little too long, even for the faithful.
The latest unearthed audio has him agreeing with a conservative podcast host on what women are for once we hit menopause: Helping to raise children is “the whole purpose of the postmenopausal female.” The whole purpose.
Vance has opinions about many different kinds of women. Those who don’t have kids are “childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable too” and lack “a direct stake in the future of the country.”
Women who care about their work and plan their families are suckers: “If your worldview tells you that it’s bad for women to become mothers but liberating for them to work 90 hours a week in a cubicle at the New York Times or Goldman Sachs, you’ve been had,” he tweeted after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
Step mothers (and step parents generally), he has suggested, are not real parents.
We have not yet heard his views on the purpose of pre-pubescent girls, but he has said that he believes even raped and impregnated children should be forced to give birth, even though their circumstances are “inconvenient” — and Ohio, the state he represents as a US senator, has done just that, notoriously refusing to allow a ten-year-old rape victim to end her pregnancy (she had to travel out of state, at which point Republicans targeted the doctor who helped her).
He goes on to tell the podcast host that his own wife, who clerked for a Supreme Coourt Justice, had the help of her own mother who took a year off from her job as a biology professor to come help them in the home. He laments that some people would have just given them money. He, at the time, was trying his failed start-up and didn’t have time to help and wouldn’t anyway because it’s clearly a “female” job.
This guy is a real throwback and I think it’s comments like this that argue for the newspapers to release those documents they obtained that show the Vance vetting process. They either show that Trump and his people knew about his creepy sexism and either agree with it or didn’t care — or they did a very poor job of it. Either way, it’s newsworthy that someone with these antediluvian views made it on to a presidential ticket in 2024 despite a process that ostensibly vetted him.
I’m ticking off an awful lot of boxes that JD Vance seems to consider make me a useless, perhaps evil, member of society. It’s more than a little concerning.
Let them have their convention, and who knows how that’s going to turn out? Joe Biden is a very angry man, they took it away from him, they usurped it, they took it away from him, terrible terrible. I’m not sure they picked the right guy in him but he got 14 million votes — he got 14 million votes, she got no votes and you look at what happens, that’s not the way it was supposed to happen. They’re a threat to democracy, right? As they say.
—Trump in North Carolina 8/14
He just can’t quit Joe.
The moment Donald Trump’s right ear was injured in an assasination attempt earlier this month.
He’s more unstable than ever. Losing Joe left him “gutted.” And that assassination attempt pushed him over the edge:
“He’s been watching that seven-second clip of how close he was to getting shot right in the head—over and over and over again,” said a Republican close to the campaign, reported Vanity Fair.
The July 13 assassination attempt of Trump came amid a whirlwind month of political news, which included the RNC, the announcement of JD Vance as Trump’s running mate, and, most notably, Joe Biden announcing that he was bowing out of the presidential race.
That vicious news cycle meant the attempt on Trump’s life quickly took a back seat to other news stories, like Kamala Harris’ surging momentum and the unearthing of controversial past remarks by Vance.
Trump has been notably quieter on the campaign trail in recent weeks, opting to stay at Mar-a-Lago while his running mate tailed Harris at her campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin last week. He’s still posted regularly to Truth Social, called into Fox News, and has been apart of two livestreams in August—one with Elon Musk, and the other with the controversial streamer Adin Ross.
Yet that activity pales in comparison to Trump at this point in his campaigns in 2016 and 2020, political analysts have noted. Sources who spoke to Vanity Fair suggested that just might be because of the trauma—or because Trump is gutted he’s no longer facing Biden.
A source who spoke to the magazine claimed Trump has told people close to him that “they cheated by swapping Biden.” In social posts, Trump has suggested that Biden may crash the DNC next week and force himself back to the top of the ticket—something no Democrat or media outlet has suggested.
With Harris overwhelmingly likely to be the Democrats’ candidate in November, some in Trump’s circle, like Roger Stone, have reportedly encouraged the ex-president to attack her on policy and not by calling her “Laffin Kamala” and “Kamabla.”
“I do think it’s counterproductive to call her stupid,” Stone told Vanity Fair.
To push back against the advice from all over, the magazine reported that Trump has told advisers: “I know what I’m doing.”
Sure he does…
When Roger Stone says you shouldn’t be calling someone stupid…
The felonious Republican presidential candidate with the overlong tie and the Cheez Whiz comb over was in Asheville, North Carolina on Wednesday. * His campaign team called it an economic address. The venue was too undersized for his vanity to label it a rally. (The press might report the crowd size.)
The 75-minute speech featured a litany of broad policy ideas and even grander promises to end inflation , bolster already record-level U.S. energy production and raise Americans’ standard of living. But those pronouncements were often lost in the former president’s typically freewheeling, grievance-laden style that has made it difficult for him to answer the enthusiasm of [Kamala} Harris’ nascent campaign.
Trump aired his frustration over Democrats swapping the vice president in place of Biden at the top of their presidential ticket. He repeatedly denigrated San Francisco, where Harris was once the district attorney, as “unlivable” and went after his rival in deeply personal terms, questioning her intelligence, saying she has “the laugh of a crazy person” and musing that Democrats were being “politically correct” in trying to elevate the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent to serve as vice president.
“You know why she hasn’t done an interview? She’s not smart. She’s not intelligent. And we’ve gone through enough of that with this guy, Crooked Joe,” Trump said, using the nickname he often uses for Biden.
Donald Trump hit a few of his prepared points before reverting to winging it with “gestures and hyperbole.” He dislikes policy, is uncomfortable speaking about it, and reverts to personal attacks. That’s Trump’s happy place.
CNN’s Stephen Collinson observes that after a couple of floundering weeks, Trump may be settling on a line of attack against Harris. Of course, it’s personal:
The new approach, if Trump ever musters the discipline to implement it in a concentrated way, is deeply personal and designed to destroy the idea that Harris, just the second woman to head a major party presidential ticket, is competent to serve. It involves blaming her for the scourge of inflation and high grocery prices that haunted Biden’s administration, under the new title of “Kamalanomics.”
With Harris expected to lay out her own economic plan on Friday, Trump’s team also wants to frustrate any effort by the vice president to bill her candidacy as a fresh start for economic policy. Trump also stepped up efforts to paint Harris as an extreme liberal – a strategy that has sometimes worked for Republican presidential campaigns in the past – at a time when conservative media is making comparisons between her and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Trump is also portraying Harris as a flip flopper who backed away from past positions on energy and health care but who would return to what he says is her radical past if elected. It’s an attempt to shatter public trust in the new Democratic nominee and builds on his previous questioning of her identifying as a Black woman, as well as a South Asian American. In the words of Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance, Harris is a “chameleon” who changes her politics and racial identify to suit her quest for power.
Except Trump’s act has become something out of an old SNL sketch with Mike Meyers as Dieter. His stories have become tiresome.
Plus, Democrat’s efforts to hang Project 2025 around his neck like an albatross have been successful: 70-80 percent of voters have heard of it and don’t like what they’ve heard, Amanda Marcotte reminds Salon readers:
Trump’s persistent denigration of the United States is a turn-off. He’s got only fear-mongering and racial slurs.
MSNBC contributor, Mike Barnicle, tells “Morning Joe” this morning, “The campaign is yesterday versus tomorrow. I mean, we just saw yesterday. We saw a man standing there on the stage saying we are literally a third world country. I don’t know anyone who believes we are literally a third world country.”
His campaign managers have lost control of him, Barnicle added, and when Trump stands on a debate stage with Kamala Harris, a smart, experienced prosecutor, he could lose control.
“And I think what’s going to happen is when that debate occurs, he’s in the ring with the vice president of the United States, a woman, a very sophisticated, very intelligent woman, and she hammers him like a prosecutor and doesn’t let him off the hook, he will go — I can’t say it — but something will snap in him and that will be it.”
One can hope. But don’t count on it. Get out there and volunteer for your local candidates. Direct voter contact is effective for boosting turnout. A friend registering voters at a concert last weekend called to report a 2008 vibe in the air. Another in a red state reported this week that her dental hygienist said that while the office was “Trump Country,” she’d changed after the fall of Roe.
“I have a daughter, for God’s sake.”
* No, I did not attend. I had a meeting a few block away with the campaign manager for a statewide, down-ballot race.
Vice President Kamala Harris has erased half of former President Donald Trump’s lead in Florida, a statewide poll released Wednesday found.
The Florida Atlantic University poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 47% among likely voters in the state. Just 2% said they were undecided and 1% said they’d vote for another candidate.
The 3-point Trump advantage is half the lead he had in June, the last time FAU polled in the state. Trump had a 6-point advantage among likely voters, 49% to 43%, when President Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate two months ago. The execrable Ric Scott is only up by 4 points and Miami
The terrific Bolts.com has a fascinating story today about one of the prosecutors DeSantis suspended a couple of years ago because he was using prosecutorial discretion that DeSantis didn’t care for:
Andrew Warren is running to win back his old job as Tampa’s top prosecutor. Since the Democrat joined the race in April, he has released campaign videos, basked in endorsements, and raised hundreds of thousands of dollars—all the staples of a typical campaign.
But this campaign is anything but typical. Two years ago, Warren was abruptly suspended from his office by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who said he had neglected his duties because of statements such as a promise to not prosecute abortion cases. DeSantis summarily replaced him with Susan Lopez, a Republican who immediately reversed some of Warren’s signature policies, including his effort to stop the aggressive prosecutions of Black cyclists and pedestrians in Hillsborough County.
Voters will now weigh in for the first time since DeSantis ousted the state attorney they elected. Lopez is running for a full term, but it’s Warren who won the office the last two times it was on the ballot, in 2016 and 2020. If he wins the Democratic nomination next week, he’ll face Lopez, who is running unopposed in the GOP primary, in November.
The circumstances of Warren’s removal loom large over his third run. Hillsborough County has leaned Democratic in the past, but if Warren wins, DeSantis could try suspending him again. Warren filed lawsuits arguing that DeSantis exceeded his authority when he removed him the first time, and a federal appeals court earlier this year kept his case alive. Some experts say it’d be harder for the governor to suspend him again in the future, but these legal questions remain unsettled.
“Every Democratic candidate in Florida has to campaign under the threat of DeSantis removing them solely because they’re a Democrat, solely for political reasons,” Warren told Bolts.
Last year, DeSantis also suspended the elected Democratic prosecutor of Orlando, Monique Worrell, whose sentencing practices he disagreed with. He had already removed Broward County’s Democratic sheriff, replacing him with a new sheriff who backtracked on a local reform.
Lopez, too, rolled back Warren’s reforms within just days of replacing him. On Aug. 8, 2022, just four days after her appointment, she sent a memo to her staff announcing changes to the office’s policies. Among them: She lifted Warren’s restrictions on prosecuting people when their charges stemmed from bike and pedestrian stops conducted by the Tampa police.
“Effective immediately, any policy my predecessor put in place that called for presumptive non-enforcement of the laws of Florida is immediately rescinded. This includes the bike stop and pedestrian stop policy,” Lopez said in her memo. DeSantis had named this reform among his reasons for removing Waren, saying that it demonstrates a “fundamentally flawed and lawless understanding of his duties as a state attorney.”
Warren had set up his policy in the wake of a 2015 Tampa Bay Times investigation that revealed that the majority of cyclists stopped by the Tampa police were Black. The story sparked an investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice that reached the same conclusion in 2016: Of 9,121 bicycle stops made by Tampa police over a 20-month period, 73 percent of those involved Black cyclists. Tampa’s population is 26 percent Black.
Read on for more. It’s a good story. I hope he wins. DeSantis’ bully boy tactics need to be repudiated. Hard.
The master manipulator who put his thumb on the scales to take advantage of the undemocratic electoral college (which results in a GOP advantage even when they are rejected by a majority of the voters) to install two hyper-partisan wingnut Supreme Court justices says that if the Democrats win they’re going to right his wrongs.
Boo fucking hoo:
The day after Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was announced as Kamala Harris’s choice for vice president, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told a crowd of lawmakers in Louisville, Kentucky, that a Harris administration would spell certain doom for the Republican Party.
“Let’s assume our worst nightmare—the Democrats went to the White House, the House, the Senate,” McConnell said during his keynote speech at the National Conference of State Legislators Legislative Summit last week, according to Spectrum News. “The first thing they’ll do is get rid of the [Senate] filibuster. Second, you’ll have two new states: D.C., Puerto Rico. That’s four new Democratic senators in perpetuity.”
Puerto Rico will vote on a nonbinding ballot measure in November to determine the territory’s future political status, with voters being given three options, all of which would change its official status: statehood, independence, or independence with free association. It will be the seventh time that the island’s 3.2 million people vote to define their political relationship with the United States. Harris has not yet taken an official stance on the vote.
McConnell insisted that next on the historically moderate Democrat’s agenda would be to place as many liberal justices on the Supreme Court as possible, noting that doing so would be “unconstitutional”—while apparently ignoring the fact that that’s exactly what Donald Trump did to achieve SCOTUS’s current conservative supermajority.
“If they get those two new states and pack the Supreme Court, they’ll get what they want,” McConnell said.
There’s nothing unconstitutional about any of that. Consider how the right got “North and South” Dakotas and Carolinas to pad their electoral college advantage. And, I’m sorry, there is ample precedent for expanding the Supreme Court, especially in a time when the current court routinely says, “what are these precedents you speak of?” To hell with that.
I’ll be shocked if the Democrats actually do any of this. But I'[d be thrilled if they do.
