Okay, I’m just now getting to Ezra Klein’s podcast with Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota. Listen to this guy. He’s sound. I’ll finish after this posts.
Meantime, Walz’s opponent for vice president, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, continues to have his woes:
Several polls have indicated that Vance has overwhelmingly underperformed among American voters, making him the least popular nonincumbent veep candidate since 1980. Vance’s popularity has sunk by 8.8 percentage points since his vice presidential candidacy was announced at the Republican National Convention, according to a polling average aggregated by FiveThirtyEight.
One poll conducted by Public Policy Polling on July 31 found that 47 percent of polled Americans found Vance to be unfavorable, while just 30 percent considered him favorable. An ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted between July 20 and July 27 found that Vance’s favorability had dropped by nine points, and an AP-NORC poll conducted between July 15 and July 29 saw Vance’s favorably drop by eight points.
<sad trombone>
Okay, don’t get cocky. Get busy. I ran out between posts this morning to hang Democratic lit on a dozen doors in a narrow, compact, cul de sac community I could not get into the other day for the kids and parked cars. (I’m running my own, unsanctioned political operation. Long story.)
Ebullient. Is that the right word? Since President Biden passed his party’s baton to Vice President Kamala Harris, the mood among Democratic Party faithful has turned a sharp corner. The energy at rallies for the Harris campaign, now complete with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, is the stuff of former president Donald Trump’s reality-challenged boasts. And a nightmare for an old con man desperate for the presidential shield to shield him from jail time.
(Trump made bank off his glowering mugshot. Wonder what his glower will look like after a prison haircut?)
Ed Kilgore reviews a few post Biden polls for the New York Magazine Intelligencer. Trump’s nightmare is headed into night terror territory. The Harris polling bounce is now a trend:
According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling averages, Harris is leading Trump by 1.9 percent (45.3 to 43.4 percent), with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5.3 percent. When Biden dropped out, he was trailing in the same averages by 3.2 percent. In a contest as static as the 2024 presidential race had been, that’s a big swing.,
The trend lines in national polls are equally telling. YouGov-Economist tested Harris against Trump back on July 16, showing Trump leading by 5 percent (44 to 39 percent). Then, on July 23, after Biden’s withdrawal, the same pollster had Trump leading Harris by 3 percent (44 to 41 percent). On July 30 and again on August 6 YouGov-Economist showed Harris leading Trump by 2 percent (46 to 44 percent on the earlier date and 45 to 43 percent later). Similarly, RMG Research had Trump leading Harris by two points (48 to 46 percent) on July 23, with Harris leading Trump by five points (47 to 42 percent) on July 31. Morning Consult’s tracking poll showed Trump leading Harris by two points ( 47 – 45 percent) on July 22 but then Harris leading Trump by four points (48 – 44 percent) on August 4. A CBS poll of likely voters conducted by YouGov shows a three-point Trump lead (51 to 48 percent) on July 18 turning into a one-point Harris lead (50 to 49 percent) on August 2.,
Polls comparing the Harris-Trump matchup to the earlier Biden-Trump matchup mostly show the same pro-Democratic trend. On July 16, Reuters-Ipsos showed Trump ahead of Biden by two points (43 percent to 41 percent). On July 23, the same poll gave Harris a two-point lead (44 percent to 42 percent). On July 2, the New York Times–Siena showed Trump leading Biden by six points (49 percent to 43 percent). On July 24, that pollster showed Trump leading Harris by one point (48 percent to 47 percent). Similarly, on July 2, The Wall Street Journal had Trump leading Biden by six points (48 to 42 percent) and Harris by just two points (49 to 47 percent) on July 25. Both Times-Siena and WSJ showed Harris ahead by a point when non-major-party candidates were included. Most recently, Survey USA showed Harris leading Trump by three points (48 – 45 percent) among likely voters as of August 5; the same pollster showed Trump leading Biden by two points (45 – 43 percent) back on June 28.
Shrinkage
Walz kicked off the use of “weird” to deflate Republicans’ image. “Shrink him, shrink the message,” Walz elaborated last week on the Pod Save America podcast. And hoo-boy, is Trump feeling his shrinkage in the polls.
Republicans were sure of victory at their convention last month. That confidence has evaporated. Predictably, Trump complains the world is unfair (Washington Post):
“It’s unfair that I beat him and now I have to beat her, too,” Trump told an ally in a phone call last weekend.
Trump’s campaign has struggled to recover both from the vigor of his opponent’s campaign and the fallout from his choice of a running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, who was not and is not ready for prime time.
While Trump has repeatedly said Republican Party officials only needed to focus on election integrity, he has begun hearing from outside allies that he does not have a significant ground game in key battleground states. He has grown annoyed with some of the media focus on his campaign staff, suggesting to others that his advisers get too much credit. Some advisers have urged him to spend more on digital advertising, saying he is being pummeled online.
His “bonkers” decision to ditch the Republican National Committee’s field plan and to outsource his ground operations to Turning Point Action and other PACs could turn his national campaign into another Trump Taj Mahal.
By the way, Kilgore wasn’t done:
Most recently, and perhaps impressively, Bloomberg–Morning Consult has released a new batch of seven battleground-state polls taken from July 24–28. Overall, they showed Harris leading Trump by one percent (48 to 47 percent), as compared to a two-point Trump lead over Biden in early July. The individual state gains by Harris were also striking: She led by 2 percent (49 to 47 percent) in Arizona, a real problem state for Biden; by 2 percent (47 to 45 percent) in Nevada; by 2 percent (49 to 47 percent) in Wisconsin; and by an astonishing 11 percent (53 to 42 percent) in Michigan. Harris was tied with Trump in Georgia at 47 percent, and she trailed him by 2 percent (46 to 48 percent) in North Carolina and by 4 percent (46 to 50 percent) in Pennsylvania.,
A July 29-August 2 survey from Split Ticket-Data for Progress of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin showed Harris leading Trump by a point (48 to 47 percent) among likely voters across the three states, after trailing him by five points (45 to 50 percent) in a July 18-23 poll.,
Three battleground states have enough post-Biden-Harris-switch polling now for FiveThirtyEight to compile averages, and all of them show very close races. In Georgia, Trump leads by 0.7 percent (45.8 to 45.1 percent), but Harris leads in Michigan by 1.7 percent (44.7 to 43.1 percent) and most surprisingly, in Pennsylvania by 0.8 percent (45.4 to 44.6 percent).
Kilgore likely penned his post before Marquette Law School released its survey showing Harris opening up an eight-point lead over Trump:
The survey, conducted by Marquette Law School between July 24 and August 1, shows that when third party candidates are included, Harris leads among likely voters on 50 percent to Trump’s 42 percent. Harris has improved the Democrats‘ position since May, when Trump was leading on 44 percent to Joe Biden‘s 41 percent.
Brian Beutler says moderates should stop worrying that the Real Americans are going to run for the hills:
The implicit premise, familiar to every Democrat in politics, is that Republicans will declare all progressive ideas “socialism” whether their contents or proponents are socialist or not. One school of liberal thought holds that Democrats should thus downplay these kinds of ideas—avoid bad-faith GOP backlash and seize the center through the absence of controversy.
Another holds that Democrats can defeat Republicans in a contest to define the issues. As a liberal politician, you can run away from the idea of universal school lunch, because Republicans will call it socialism, or you can run toward it, while persuading people that it isn’t socialism, it’s neighborliness. If you opt for the latter, you can go a step further by noting that stripping free lunch from hungry children, or making school lunch programs a source of stigma for the children of poor parents, are ideas that only animate people of troubling character. Free school lunch won’t take us down the road to serfdom, but hating free school lunch is pretty weird.
Walz has provided Democrats a replicable template for the latter approach. None of his competitors can say the same. It’s why Harris was right to pluck him out of obscurity and why moderates should rest easy that the two of them have a solid theory of victory.
I think Brian’s theory of the case is correct. This re-framing of the issues is long overdue as is the idea that “freedom” means low taxes and abortion bans and that “democracy” means not allowing people to vote or have their votes count. Walz’s personality and record argue that making these arguments from the perspective of “neighborliness” has some power to persuade people who haven’t completely fallen down the wingnut/MAGA rabbit hole.
Providing tampons for high school students is something the Trump people seem to think is very weird. I think most people probably think it’s weird not to.
Former President Trump’s campaign and supporters are going after Vice President Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), dubbing him “Tampon Tim” in reference to a bill he signed last year requiring schools to provide free menstrual products in all public school bathrooms.
The Minnesota law, which went into effect Jan. 1, mandates menstrual products — including pads, tampons and other items — “must be available to all menstruating students in restrooms regularly used by students in grades 4 to 12 according to a plan developed by the school district.”
State Republican lawmakers pushed back on the legislation at the time, but ultimately failed to amend the bill to apply only for girls’ bathrooms.
[…]
The primary super PAC supporting Trump called Walz a “weird radical liberal,” as part of a new campaign ad against the governor.
“What could be weirder than signing a bill requiring schools to stock tampons in boys’ bathrooms?” the Make America Great Again Inc. account wrote Tuesday on the social platform X. “Or weirder than signing legislation allowing minors to receive sex change operations?”
[…]
Conservative podcaster Liz Wheeler reposted an edited photo of Walz’s face on a tampon box Tuesday, with the words “Tampon Tim,” writing on X, “He put tampons in men’s bathroom. What a creep.”
Stephen Miller, a former adviser to the former president, also weighed in on the choice of Walz, writing Tuesday on X, “She actually chose Tampon Tim.”
Having Stephen Miller weigh in on the “weird thing” might not be the best idea in the world.
They’re going to lean in on the culture war. Ok. I think most Americans are less interested in this than they think but I guess we’ll see.
Trump’s +6 edge on immigration is much smaller than usual; this has been the GOP’s strongest issue. Trump +3 on the economy is also lower than usual. Trump dominates among “strong leader” voters. But Harris crushes him among voters who want “honest and trustworthy.” pic.twitter.com/v3yMdZnPvl
Overall, Harris has built a 51%-48% lead over Trump, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. That’s a four-point improvement for Harris, who became the Democratic choice when Biden bowed out. Harris maintains a three-point lead (48%-45%) when third-party choices are included.
Harris leads by 13 points with women (55%-42%), but is losing men by nine points (54%-45%).
Fueling her rise are Black voters, white women with college degrees and women who identify as political independents. She is doing 20 to 30 points better with them than when she first got in, leading to improvement in the suburbs and with white voters overall.
On the issues, the negative views of the economy are not sticking to Harris the way they did Biden. Trump is still more trusted on the economy, but only by 3 points over Harris (51%-48%), compared to 9 points over Biden (54%-45%) in June.
Harris is also seeing improvement on how she would handle immigration, though Trump is still more trusted on that topic by 6 points (52%-46%). Harris’ best issue is handling abortion rights. She has a 15-point advantage on that.
Harris has also improved with white voters overall. Harris has gone from 40% with white voters overall to 46% in this survey, which is closer to where Biden was, and that’s very high for a Democrat. In fact, no Democrat has scored that high with white voters in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Biden got 41% in 2020, Barack Obama in 2008 won 43%.
It’s all good, from Shapiro to Harris to Walz. If you didn’t have a chance to watch, I highly recommend it.
Amanda Marcotte went to both the JD Vance rally and the Harris Walz rally and they couldn’t be more different:
He’s so weird! He’s so weird!” the crowd chanted in a sing-song, taunting voice that echoed across Temple University’s packed basketball stadium Tuesday evening. Gov. Josh Shapiro, D-Penn., was the first person to mention Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, to the crowd that had packed the overflowing Philadelphia rally for Vice President Kamala Harris, as she introduced her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, D-Minn. The spontaneous chant cracked Shapiro up, causing him to pause momentarily before laying back into the authoritarian threat posed by Donald Trump’s “weird” and beardy running mate.
The chanters didn’t know the half of it. Hours earlier, I had been at a South Philly venue where Vance spoke briefly to about 200 supporters and a group of bored journalists. Vance’s event was small, mean, and yes, weird, featuring the unjustified sarcasm of the candidate and a desperate feeling reminiscent of the mood at a strip mall shot bar at 2 AM on “ladies’ night.”
Meanwhile, the Harris/Walz rally felt like a rousing speech by Coach Eric Taylor of “Friday Night Lights” combined with the front row at Coachella. The cheers were so loud that I regretted not bringing my earplugs. The mood was jubilant, even though folks had to wait hours in the heat and humidity to even get into the place. The campaign claimed over 12,000 people showed up, which is not an exaggeration. Even as Harris and Walz gave the final speeches of the evening, the line to get into the overflow room — just to watch the event on TV — went on for multiple city blocks.
[…]
Vance’s speech, on the other hand, wasn’t just underwhelming but a little uncanny. Despite using room dividers to shrink the space, the campaign could not hide that the crowd felt like a medium-sized wedding, albeit a pathetic one where no one cares for the couple. Vance, perhaps recognizing charisma isn’t his strong suit, spoke briefly before bringing up a series of local citizens ready to blame Mexicans for their familial tragedies of drug addiction. He spoke for a couple more minutes, before taking the reporters’ questions about cat ladies.
Even in his short speech, it seemed Vance — like the Trump campaign overall — is still struggling to accept that they are running against Harris and not President Joe Biden. It felt like the speechwriter had typed Ctrl-F “Biden” and replaced every instance with “Harris,” whether it made sense or not. Vance accused Harris of hiding from the press with a “basement campaign.” Never mind that Harris is now the young and spry candidate who can keep up with an aggressive schedule, while Trump is the tired old man who can barely campaign between naps.
He is barely campaignimg:
By the way, Harris Walz raised over 40 million dollars through Act Blue yesterday. It’s the sixth highest day in its history. Something’s happening.
Stephen Miller: "Tim Walz's job is to be the Jack Kevorkian for America. His job is to be the assisted suicide doctor – to lean over charmingly by the bedside of America and to give it a fatal injection" pic.twitter.com/AzMXxPcph1
WHEN 23-YEAR-OLD GAMER ADIN ROSS presented Donald Trump with a Rolex watch in a first-of-its-kind livestreamed interview on the platform Kick Monday, a tiny subset of the internet descended into blows over whether it was a campaign finance violation or not.
The rest of the approximately 600,000 people watching thought it was hilarious and cool.
And that, unfortunately, is a major problem for Democrats—the majority of whom were likely oblivious to the whole episode.
Ross, who boasts 1.3 million followers, is part of a cohort of young hyperonline men who promote an unapologetically MAGA aesthetic and culture. He is a sycophant of the legendary king of the manosphere, Andrew Tate, known equally for his overt misogyny and the charges he faces for rape and human trafficking.
These clowns are heirs to Gamergate, dubbed the “Barstool Sports generation” by Harvard youth pollster John Della Volpe. They’ve “moved from online outrage about female game designers to mobilizing politically for the first time when they saw a kindred spirit in Trump during his 2016 run,” writes Ilyse Hogue.
Trump and his allies are trying to mobilize these sad, young men (600,000 plus) to vote this November.
Hogue warns:
This coordinated effort is geared to do one thing: rewire social permissions so young men can feel good about voting for a convicted felon and a man found liable for sexual abuse. And so far, it seems to be working. Trump is winning this demographic according to most polls.
This rightward drift of young men is part of a global trend that has powered elections in recent years from Argentina to France. Uninterrupted, this dynamic will not only influence the outcome of the presidential race in November—especially in key states that skew young like Arizona—but will also realign politics as we know it for a generation to come. And yet, despite liberal voices raising the alarm, Democrats have failed even to really acknowledge the problem, much less put real resources into combating it.
Let’s have a look at “the alarm” Hogue references:
American men are facing multiple problems, and aren’t getting many answers. Popular culture focuses on Elon Musk, Davos CEOs, and the other men flourishing at the top of society’s heap. But that’s not where the majority of men exist. Nearly two-thirds of white men over 25 do not have a college degree—a figure that rises to 78% for Black men and 82% for Hispanic men. These men face daunting odds.
Men with only a high school diploma earned $1,017 a week in 1979, according to AIBM President Richard Reeves’ calculations—now they earn $881. More than one in ten men in their prime aren’t working at all—three times the percentage in 1969, and a much higher percentage than their European counterparts.
It’s not just about money, but about status and life satisfaction. Women are out-graduating men from high school and vastly out-competing them in college where almost 1.5 women graduate for every man. These women aren’t so interested in men who are less educated and earn poorly, so men without college degrees are marrying less. Over 1.5 million men aged 20 to 24 aren’t in school, training, or work, and these men are having a lot less sex than past generations and their more productive peers.
Unsurprisingly, young men without college degrees report that they have the least optimism and purpose in life among all the groups of men surveyed by Equimundo. Many have lost a reliable way to earn a living. They also claim to have the least social support, and are uncertain how to have basic relationships—with friends, let alone romantic partners. They feel their low status acutely, but because popular culture aggregates their lives with the men at the nosebleed top, they are told by much of the left that they are privileged and should take a back seat.
Hokay, that’s maybe why Trump gets 600,000 on an online event hosted by a misogynist. Their attitudes may be revolting, but those numbers are nothing to sniff at. And as my Army veteran friend observed, these are just the types to take up arms when told by their overlords. Best to keep that from happening.
While the Harris campaign is attracting more males to the Democratic cause, “it’s time to explicitly talk to young men,” Hogue suggests, even if that means “tipping some sacred cows,” like the aversion to a certain style of masculinity.
If inclusion means inclusion and big tent means big tent. If we mean to represent everyone.
Not holding my breath, but Gov. Tim Walz is working on it.
The spouse the other day blurted out (re: the MAGA cult), “What are they so angry about? What about their lives in this country is so terrible?”
It’s a fair question.
These MAGA people’s lives look pretty un-terrible. What does a rig like that truck at the top cost? How oppressed are you if you can afford to own and operate vehicles like that (and these below), accessorized as they are?
Trump boat parade, Charleston harbor, Aug. 3, 2020.
“Fully 83% of the arrestees resided in areas with an average annual per capita income between $20K and $50K,” reports one study of January 6 arrestees.
Just a guess, but the boat parade and truck parade people are not likely to have family incomes as low as $50k. Nor the Texas women who chartered a private jet to attend the Stop the Steal rally on January 6, 2021.
Miles-long MAGA parade snakes through through Montauk on Long Island (October 2020). Many vehicles including this one had their license plates taped over.
They aren’t that worried about the price of gas.
You can call them many things, but just don’t call these adults weird.
Wondering what the Trucker Convoy is protesting? We talked to a woman and she explained EVERYTHING. pic.twitter.com/PrQSPnNrDh
The clip below speaks for itself, as does the former celebrity.
MAGA Weird actor Clip 4 is Roseanne. At Kari Lake’s fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago, she shot this PSA telling students to drop out of college because they were filled with devil worshippers who drink babies’ blood. pic.twitter.com/2AW6nxr7Ri
None of these people worry about jobs or the cost to travel the country like Deadheads to multiple Trump rallies.
What these weird people are angry about is not the economy or LED light bulbs or electric cars or the price of gas or immigration. What these weird people are pissed off about is their feeling of no longer being firmly in control of the country. Their country. To which they are entitled. By virtue of their birth and skin color. So long as lessers know their places and stay in them, they are good. Sharing power, as democracy demands, is unacceptable. It’s why these All-Americans reject it.
These weirdest of the weird are easy to poke fun at. But one caution.
An old friend who carried an M60 in the 82nd Airborne once reflected on what happens when the shooting starts. There are plenty of less well-heeled, less-educated, misinformed people in this country who will line up to be cannon fodder for the rich when asked, and march into massed gunfire when ordered. That’s how the first Civil War worked. It could happen again.
