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Month: July 2025

Making It Up On The Fly

An example — Vietnam:

Trump announced the framework agreement on Truth Social on July 2, just days before the White House’s self-imposed July 8 deadline for trade negotiations. The deal was just the second the administration has reached to avoid its threatened “reciprocal” tariffs, after Trump suggested in an April interview that he’d made 200 deals. According to Trump’s July 2 post, exports from Vietnam will face a 20 percent tariff — down from the 46 percent that was paused in April — or a 40 percent tariff if they originated in a different country. In exchange, Vietnam “will ‘OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,’ meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff,” the president wrote.

That sent shock waves through Vietnam because their negotiators had not, in fact, agreed to the 20 percent rate; they believed the tariff rate would be around 11 percent, according to the four people. Trump disregarded that figure in his phone call with Vietnamese General Secretary Lâm — who had not been part of the initial tariff negotiations — and instead declared the U.S. would impose a tariff nearly twice as high.

Some on the U.S. side were surprised, too, including outside groups who’d been tracking the talks, according to one Washington-based lobbyist who works with Vietnam and other Asian governments.

“Trump sandbagged everybody,” said the lobbyist. They described the Vietnamese government’s reaction as “surprise, as well as disappointment and anger.”

South Korea:

In 2018, South Korea handed President Donald Trump the first trade victory of his administration. Under the agreement, new South Korean steel export restrictions were put in place and more U.S. automakers could export their cars to South Korea.

The president hailed it as “a historic milestone,” a “great deal for American and Korean workers” and a “fair and reciprocal” deal. That was probably overselling what amounted to a modest rewrite of a pre-existing trade agreement, but South Korea was happy to play along if it meant buying peace and quiet.

When Trump took office in January, South Korea seemed well-positioned to weather the looming tariffs the president was eager to implement. But it was not to be. Earlier this week, Trump announced he would impose a 25% tariff on South Korean exports starting Aug. 1, unless its government agreed to even more concessions.

The new threat sent a message that resonated far beyond Seoul: Trump can’t be trusted.

Foreign leaders have already noticed that nobody is safe from the mercurial temperament of the U.S. president and his endless appetite for tariffs and and a light-switch approach to flipping them on and off. So far in his second term, Trump has broken more trade deals than forged new ones, and the goalposts are constantly moving. The president inked a sweeping deal with Canada and Mexico in his first term, then turned around and launched another trade war earlier this year.

The behavior might earn the “dealmaker-in-chief” a new nickname: the “dealbreaker-in-chief.”

Meanwhile:

Since March, the son of the former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro has been roaming the halls of the White House. Eduardo Bolsonaro, 41, is a sitting Brazilian congressman, but his latest job has been to convince U.S. officials that a dangerous Brazilian Supreme Court justice wants to throw him and his father into prison, simply for fighting against what they claim was a stolen election.

And in multiple visits to Washington over the past several months, he has found a sympathetic audience. “This is nothing more, or less, than an attack on a Political Opponent — Something I know much about!” President Trump posted online Monday. “It happened to me, times 10.”

Eduardo Bolsonaro said he had been pushing senior White House officials to place sanctions on the Brazilian judge overseeing his father’s prosecution. Then, on Wednesday, Mr. Trump opted for something far more damaging: a 50 percent tariff on all Brazilian imports starting Aug. 1, retaliation for what he called a “witch hunt” against Jair Bolsonaro.

The shift from imposing sanctions on a single judge to threatening an entire nation of 200 million with harsh tariffs was Mr. Trump’s decision alone, according to two people familiar with the meeting at which the president discussed his decision and who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation.

The move showed Mr. Trump’s new willingness to use tariffs to settle political scores, regardless of questions of legality, because of their sheer power to cause economic destruction and impose intense political pressure.

It’s all pointless except as an exercise to stroke his own ego in the moment and alienate most of the planet against the United States — because he can. He’s mad that he isn’t universally loved so he’s going to get even. And he is apparently very sure that he will get away with all of it. After all, he’s 79 years old and he’s always gotten away with everything. He believes he is omnipotent,

Heckuva Job Kristi

Courtesy Cara Jackson

The NY Times reports:

After floods, hurricanes and other disasters, survivors can call FEMA to apply for different types of financial assistance. People who have lost their homes, for instance, can apply for a one-time payment of $750 that can help cover their immediate needs, such as food or other supplies.

On July 5, as floodwaters were starting to recede, FEMA received 3,027 calls from disaster survivors and answered 3,018, or roughly 99.7 percent, the documents show. Contractors with four call center companies answered the vast majority of the calls.

That evening, however, Ms. Noem did not renew the contracts with the four companies and hundreds of contractors were fired, according to the documents and the person briefed on the matter.

The next day, July 6, FEMA received 2,363 calls and answered 846, or roughly 35.8 percent, according to the documents. And on Monday, July 7, the agency fielded 16,419 calls and answered 2,613, or around 15.9 percent, the documents show.

Some FEMA officials grew frustrated by the lapse in contracts and that it was taking days for Ms. Noem to act, according to the person briefed on the matter and the documents. “We still do not have a decision, waiver or signature from the DHS Secretary,” a FEMA official wrote in a July 8 email to colleagues.

Pretty bad, I’d say. But is it as bad as this?

REPORTER: Families are upset because warnings didn’t go out in time. What do you say to those families?

TRUMP: Well I think everyone did an incredible job under the circumstances. This was a one in 1,000 years. Only a bad person would ask a question like that. Only an evil person would ask a question like that.

Those bad, evil families had better keep their traps shut. Dear Leader doesn’t want to hear any of their bitching and moaning about losing their kids, relatives, friends and neighbors. Move along citizens. Nothing to see here.

Throw-down Ham Sandwich

We don’t need no stinking probable cause

“People need to understand, ICE officers and Border Patrol don’t need probable cause to walk up to somebody, briefly detain them, and question them,” he said on “Fox & Friends.” https://x.com/atrupar/status/1943671875961287024

Is a masked “officer” bumping an observer and accusing said observer of assaulting a federal officer the ICE equivalent of using a “drop gun” or a “throw-down gun” to frame a suspect? Asking for the current and future accused.

TNR:

Grandmother Barbara Stone says she was documenting the detention of asylum-seekers with the group “Detention Resistance” at San Diego’s immigration court when she was baselessly accused of pushing an officer. Multiple masked agents then pursued Stone, grabbed and handcuffed her (leaving bruises), confiscated her phone and purse, and detained her for over eight hours, she says.

Once Stone was released, ICE returned her bag but kept possession of her phone. Why? Stone says an ICE agent compared the situation to “a drug bust where they keep a drug dealer’s phone because I had used it in the crime.”

But the only “crime” of which Stone says she’s guilty is documenting immigration enforcement. If this is true, the episode would track with other apparent attempts by ICE agents to avoid accountability of late, for instance, by wearing masks so they can conduct raids and arrests anonymously.

Maybe observers should carry a throw-down ham sandwich to these ICE raids. Blame the sandwich for any inadvertent contact.

* * * * *

Have you fought dictatorship today?

Good Trouble Lives On (July 17, in memory of John Lewis)
The Resistance Lab
Choose Democracy
Indivisible: A Guide to Democracy on the Brink
You Have Power
Chop Wood, Carry Water
Thirty lonely but beautiful actions
Attending a Protest Surveillance Self-Defense

U.S. Joins Third World

All that’s missing is torture. They’re working on it.

Schoolchildren learn it:

“I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.”

During the postwar Red Scare in 1954, we added “under God” between “nation” and “indivisible.”

God has nothing to do with Trump 2.0, nor does justice for all.

Joyce Vance considers how the administration fared in courts on Friday. She suggests that judges are not taking well to the administration’s “saying ‘f*** you’ to the courts over and over again.”

Judge Hernán Vera in Los Angeles ordered the Los Angeles Police Department to stop “assaulting, detaining, and using nonlethal ammunition against journalists who are covering protests” and to stop limiting their movements where conditions do not absolutely require it.

Judge Maame Ewusi-Mensah Frimpong from California’s Central District (in that district only) “granted a temporary restraining order directing DHS/ICE to stop making arrests in violation of the 4th Amendment, using appearance, accent, and type of work to arrest people, because none of those considerations amount to probable cause.”

Someone alert “Border Czar” Tom Homan.

(Remember when Fox News frothed that Barack Obama’s alleged “csars” meant the first black president was turning the country into an authoritarian hellhole? Fox was foreshadowing.)

Then there is the ongoing civil against Abrego Garcia in Maryland. ICE screwed up initially in deporting him to El Salvador in violation of a court order. The government has since spent months vilifying Abrego Garcia in public to somehow justify its mistake rather than admit it. They made him into a worldwide cause célèbre and now mean to make an example of him over it. They can’t wait to deport him to a hellhole like South Sudan:

Yesterday, Judge Paula Xinis heard testimony from a witness she had directed the government to present, and it turned out that the testimony failed to answer some of the very basic questions she has about the case. Questions like, what do you plan to do with Mr. Abrego Garcia if he’s released, and in what country, other than El Salvador, where the government is currently prohibited from sending him, might you dump him? The government is taking a ridiculous posture, saying that unless and until he’s released from criminal custody in the Tennessee case, they aren’t making any plans at all—they just have some vague ideas about the possibilities.

Given that this is the same government we now know from the Erez Reuveni whistleblower case doesn’t feel compelled to comply with courts that rule against Donald Trump’s desired course of action, it’s easy to understand why the Judge was skeptical of the government, telling their lawyers she could no longer presume they were acting in good faith at one point. The presumption of regularity entitles the government to an assumption by the court that its actions are valid and in accordance with the law, placing a burden on any party challenging it to prove otherwise. “You have taken the presumption of regularity and you’ve destroyed it in my view,” Judge Xinis said.

The judge has lost patience with government petulance. For it’s part, the government wants to deport the man to some third world country while working overtime to turn the United States into one.

The Judge was righteously indignant that the government wouldn’t say what it wants to do, maintaining the fiction that some randomly assigned desk officer will decide what happens on the fly if Abrego Garcia is returned to their custody, just like they would in any normal case. It’s ridiculous. The government is saying “f*** you” to the courts over and over again, and the courts seem to be getting the message.

By now, anyone who is paying attention understands that all people in the United States, not just citizens, are entitled to due process, even if it’s just a limited dose of it. It would be easy for the government to provide it. Their steadfast refusal, leading to this entire series of confrontations with the courts, suggests that their objective here is to be so hateful and expose people to so much danger that migrants will deport themselves and stop coming to the United States because the risk of having horrors inflicted on them, bring dropped into a dangerous country where they don’t speak the language, or being sent to CECOT prison is too great. It’s the stepped-up version of then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions saying, “We need to take away children,” in order to deter illegal immigration during a meeting with a U.S. Attorney who expressed concern about the family separation policy back at the start of the first Trump administration. Now that feels quaint.

Read the whole thing.

We added “under God” to the Pledge during the 1950’s manufactured “commie” panic. Will someone propose stripping “and justice for all” over this one over immigrants? Trump 2.0 clearly has no use for it. Put the DOGE boys on it.

* * * * *

Have you fought dictatorship today?

Good Trouble Lives On (July 17, in memory of John Lewis)
The Resistance Lab
Choose Democracy
Indivisible: A Guide to Democracy on the Brink
You Have Power
Chop Wood, Carry Water
Thirty lonely but beautiful actions
Attending a Protest Surveillance Self-Defense

Magaland In Disarray

Live by the conspiracy theory, die by the conspiracy theory:

Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino has told people he is considering resigning amid a major clash between the FBI and Justice Department over the continued fallout from the release of the Jeffrey Epstein memo, several sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

This comes after a heated confrontation with Attorney General Pam Bondi over the handling of the case earlier this week.

The infighting over the case came to a head during a Wednesday meeting, which included Bongino, Bondi, FBI Director Kash Patel and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, sources said. Bongino and Patel were confronted about whether they were behind a story that said the FBI wanted more information released but was ultimately stymied by the Department of Justice, the sources said.

Bongino denied leaking that notion to NewsNation, which published the story, a source familiar with the matter told CNN, though he did not sign on to a statement defending the review included in that article.

CNN has reached out to Bongino and the FBI for comment. The sources cautioned that Bongino had not made up his mind, and it was possible he would stay in his position.

The episode comes as many of President Donald Trump’s close advisers, both inside and outside the White House, have grown increasingly frustrated with Bondi’s handling of the so-called Epstein files, following days of intense criticism from some of the president’s most devoted supporters.

Multiple sources said Bongino did not come to work Friday, fueling speculation he had quit over the issue. One source said as of Friday afternoon he had not left his position.

“The whole thing has been a complete mess and no one is happy,” a source briefed on the matter told CNN.

If I had to guess, Bongino really hates having to do a real job and probably misses the big money he was making as a MAGA influencer. That’s his golden goose and being on the wrong side of the Epstein Files debacle isn’t good for his financial future.

But I have to say that this Epstein thing is looking more and more like a bridge for some of the MAGA true believers to get off the train. They can’t admit they were wrong, of course. But if they can use a pet conspiracy theory about the deep state to give them an excuse to condemn the MAGA leadership it might start the process of deprogramming the cult. I don’t know that for sure. But this Epstein flap looks like a deeper wound than I first imagined.

It does happen. I know that George W. Bush never had a cult following like Trump but he was incredibly popular during much of his first term and it wasn’t only Republicans who talked about him like he was God. The kitsch was almost as bad as it is with Trump (although Bush wasn’t personally selling the garbage out of the White House for his own profit.) When it became clear that we weren’t “winning” anything in Iraq and Afghanistan, his approval ratings started to deflate. Katrina and the financial crisis were the final nails in his coffin.

I think the economy may do that with Trump, followed by disgust with the immigration policy and the overall degradation of government services and necessary functions. (The total destruction of democracy and the rule of law is apparently a 5th tier issue for most people unfortunately.) It’s possible that the grassroots MAGA cult leadership is just seeing the writing on the wall and are starting to make their moves.

Or not …

Immigration Policy For Dummies

Way too many Democratic strategists keep insisting that immigration is Trump’s “Trump card.” According to the new Gallup poll it is anything but.

This next one is a head scratcher. I don’t think anyone understands this dynamic very well.

Maybe this will wake these Trump friendly Hispanic people up:

Looking Latino (or Asian, for that matter) means these masked, unidentified men are allowed to roust you without cause. Sound good?

Your Friendly Nazi LLM

You have probably heard that Elon Musk’s X-based AI model called “Grok” went crazy this week. I know that sounds like something out of science fiction but it isn’t. As The Buklwark’s J.V. Last helpfully chronicled, this is what happened.

This week Elon Musk’s AI client went full-Nazi.

But it was only yesterday that people figured out why Grok went full-Nazi. And it’s some real Book of Genesis stuff.

This is so creepy I can hardly believe it actually happened but it did.

Large Language Model AI’s are trained on massive data sets and Grok, which is owned by xAI, seems to be largely trained on Twitter. But the models are then given “system prompts,” which are sets of primary-layer instructions for how they are meant to use the data. Elon Musk had been angry that previous versions of Grok provided responses that he believed were “too woke.”

His latest update was designed, according to Musk, with system prompts that would make Grok “maximally truth-seeking.” The Atlantic delved into Grok’s innards to see what that meant:

On Sunday, according to a public GitHub page, xAI updated Ask Grok’s instructions to note that its “response should not shy away from making claims which are politically incorrect, as long as they are well substantiated” and that, if asked for “a partisan political answer,” it should “conduct deep research to form independent conclusions.” . . . The system prompt instructs the Grok bot to “conduct a deep analysis finding diverse sources representing all parties. Assume subjective viewpoints sourced from the media are biased.”

Which is bad enough. Telling an AI to search Twitter, do “deep research” and “form independent conclusions” while assuming that “the media are biased” is like a how-to guide for radicalization.

But it turns out that there was another factor not revealed publicly by the company: Grok was also instructed to consult Elon Musk’s Twitter feed.

You read that right. Grok is programmed to take Elon Musk’s Looney utterances as an expert opinion. People with expertise started looking at what they call the “chain-of-thought” notes and this is what they found:

Last says:

The awesome nerds at TechCrunch ran these tests over and over. And every time Grok was asked about something important, it reported that it was consulting Elon Musk’s views before formulating its answer. Other users replicated these results.

Until recently, Grok was fairly reliable as these things go, which isn’t saying much. It often rebuked Elon’s stupid assertions when asked and Elon didn’t like it. So he changed it to more accurately reflect his worldview and it turned into a sophomoric, neo-Nazi, shitposter. I think that tells you everything you need to know.

Documenting The Atrocities

This thorough compendium by Bellingcat of the CBP/ICE raids in Los Angeles county is a real eye-opener if you haven’t been following the story closely. I highly recommend reading it for the full picture. This is straight-up Gestapo stuff and the fact that the entire country isn’t completely up in arms over what they are doing is a true sign of our quickly evolving depravity.

Here are some snippets from social media just over the last couple of days. It’s bad.

The Bromance Cools

Is this the week that the long-standing bromance between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin came to an end? It sounds as though it might be but, with these two kooky tyrants, you just never know. But taken at face value, it seems as though President Trump has come to the conclusion that maybe his bff isn’t on the level about wanting peace with Ukraine. Can it be possible that his pal Vlad doesn’t even care about Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize?

Most people with any sense have known from the beginning of this saga that Putin sees Trump as a fool and operates solely out of his own personal interests. As an ex-KGB agent he was trained to see people’s weaknesses and Trump’s are as obvious as the garish bronze make-up slathered all over his face. He yeanrs to be taken seriously by people he admires and he very much admires Vladimir Putin.

Recall that before he was even president he weirdly lied about already knowing him, declaring that they had been “stable mates” when in reality they had just been featured in separate profiles on 60 Minutes. And Putin had his number. During the first campaign he made the comment that Trump was “a very bright and talented man,” and an “absolute leader” when sent Trump over the moon making him gush, “it is always a great honor to be so nicely complimented by a man so highly respected within his own country and beyond.” He’s defended and supported him ever since and, more importantly, trusting him based upon what he saw as their deep personal friendship.

In this last election, one of Trump’s central promises was that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. He’s since tried to walk that back, claiming that he was “exaggerating” or joking but it was a part of his stump speech and he’s been documented saying it at least 53 times.

I think most of us understood that he meant Putin would agree to settle for the land he had already illegally seized and Ukraine would essentially surrender. He thought that both parties would eagerly accept this “deal” because in his mind Russia has all “the cards” and Ukraine is a weak state that knows it cannot possibly survive. They’d be even more motivated if he threw in some promises of real estate developments and agreements to pay for mineral rights. And Trump would finally win that coveted Nobel prize because he’s just that awesome.

None of that is working out the way he planned it. Vlad has been shining him on with the friendly banter he knows Trump loves while doing exactly as he pleases. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has withstood withering public humiliation at Trump’s hands and held fast to his commitment to fight for his country. The Europeans, who don’t see this Russian invasion of a sovereign country with the same equanimity as Trump does, have stepped into the void as well. Every day the war continues, Trump proves himself to be a feckless blowhard to the entire world.

He hasn’t got a clue what to do about it. Trump’s never been a detail man, largely because he doesn’t really understand them and doesn’t have the patience to learn. Last week the pentagon announced that the U.S was pausing its weapons shipments to Ukraine, ostensibly because we don’t have any to spare. It came as a shock to Zelensky and the Europeans but no doubt pleased Putin. He has been relentlessly bombarding Ukraine even as Trump has been mewling ineffectually on Truth Social, “Vladimir, stop!”

CNN has reported that this policy was initiated by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth without the White House’s knowledge and Trump appeared to be caught unawares when a reporter asked who had approved it, oddly responding, “I don’t know, why don’t you tell me?” Pressed about this the next day by NYT reporter Shawn McCreesh he was clearly befuddled:

McCreesh: Yesterday, you said that you were not sure who ordered the munitions halted to Ukraine. Have you since been able to figure that out?

Trump: Well, I haven’t thought about it, because we’re looking at Ukraine right now and munitions, but no, I have not gone into it.

McCreesh: What does it say that such a big decision could be made inside your government without your knowing?

Trump: I would know. If a decision was made, I will know. I’ll be the first to know. In fact, most likely I’d give the order, but I haven’t done that yet.

It was done and then it was rescinded, presumably by the White House, after Trump had a long and apparently unsatisfying conversation with his former best bud in Moscow. In a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Trump slammed Putin in terms we’ve never heard him use before. He said, “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth. He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.” Imagine that.

Reversing the Pentagon “pause” he approved defensive weapons for Ukraine and expressed an open mind about Lindsey Graham’s tough Russian sanctions bill which would heavily punish other countries that do business with Russia. People seem to be cautiously optimistic that Trump has finally seen the light and realized that Vladimir Putin doesn’t have hi best interests at heart.

I’ll believe it when I see it. It’s not that it’s impossible that Trump could be playing some kind of game to force Putin to the negotiating table, it’s just very unlikely that Putin would fall for it. He’s had Trump wound around his little finger from the moment Trump came down the escalator back in 2015. He knows how to work him and he knows that deep down, Trump is terrified of any kind of serious confrontation.

He must have laughed out loud when he read that Trump bragged to donors during the campaign that he’d told Putin he’d “bomb the s— out of Moscow” if Putin invaded Ukraine and that Putin was cowed by the threat. Trump has now been the president for six months and all he’s come up with is to whine that he’s “not happy” — and watch his dream of the Nobel Peace Prize shatter once again. Is the famous bromance shattered as well?

Salon