Don’t get too excited. Trump’s DOJ has other plans.

With the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill last week, chatter in the media immediately turned to how it would affect the Democrats’ prospects in the midterm elections next year. This actually makes some sense since this legislation was the big enchilada with very little hope or, frankly, necessity of any further legislation as the White House will simply continue to govern the country through royal decree, aka Executive Orders. They did the one thing the congress is still required to do: allocate money for the president to spend. They could just recess the congress and go home until the next election and it wouldn’t make a bit of difference. Let the horse race begin.
Polling shows that the bill is very unpopular building the Democrats’ confidence that they will be able to exploit the usual advantage as the minority in the midterms and at least win the House of Representatives. And with North Carolina GOP Senator Thom Tillis’s abrupt retirement in response to Trump’s threats to take him out if he refused to vote for the OBBB, even winning the Senate looks less remote that it did before last week.
Trump himself is quite unpopular as well. Data journalist G. Elliott Morris points out that his numbers on deportations are lower than they are on the economy and those numbers are in the dirt:
Everything in the Big Beautiful Bill is pretty much guaranteed to make all of that worse, even though some of the most calamitous provisions conveniently aren’t set to really kick in until after the election. But with the ongoing tariff drama and all the chaos and destruction meted out by the ill-fated DOGE disaster, people will certainly be feeling the effects of Trump’s carnage. The gangs of armed, mask-covered, ICE marauders will only be more present in everyone’s lives with the billions of dollars being pumped into their coffers. It’s hard to imagine that those numbers will materially improve, although anything possible in this surreal political era.
So, assuming that these mid-terms follow the usual pattern of giving the advantage to the out party, there’s a good chance that the GOP’s days of one party rule only have about 18 months to run. (And when you put it that way, it’s not actually all that encouraging is it? )
Trump’s decimation of any semblance of Justice Department independence is troubling in dozens of ways but it’s downright spine-chilling when it comes to thinking about elections. This is a man whose track record of trying to overturn elections is unprecedented. In fact, there was a time when many Americans thought that his behavior in the post-election period of the 2020 election was so egregious that he should be prosecuted and at the very least should never be allowed near elective office again.
Just to briefly recap the ways in which he attempted to manipulate the justice system in order to change the outcome, he challenged election results and filed law suits in every swing state declaring that the elections had been stolen. State courts across the board found his suits to be baseless and he lost all but one.
He leaned on state and local Republican officials to cheat in order to give him the win, famously telling the Georgia Secretary of State, on tape, that he just wanted him to “find” enough votes to put him over the top. He and his accomplices plotted to have fake electors file false paperwork declaring him the winner in the electoral college. And he pressured his often pliant Attorney General Bill Barr to have the Department of Justice declare that the election was fraudulent which Barr refused to do, resigning shortly thereafter. Trump then pressed Barr’s successor, Jeffrey Rosen, to do the same and he refused as well.
And finally, we know that he attempted to bully his Vice President Mike Pence into going along with their “fake elector” plot to overturn the election which he also refused. We all know where that led on January 6th.
I wouldn’t bring all that up again except it would seem to be an important context for what we are going to experience the next time we have an election that doesn’t go Trump’s way. He learned his lesson well. He now has a very, very eager and accommodating Attorney General in Pam Bondi whose top staff are all Trump’s personal lawyers and they have purged anyone who might say no to him. They’re all very much on the same page.
On July 4th as Trump gave his balcony speech, he mentioned that they have plans:
Trump signed an Executive Order back in March requiring that everyone presents proof of citizenship to vote and requiring that all ballots be received by election day, not simply postmarked as many states allow. He also called on states to share voter lists and prosecute election crimes threatening to pull federal funding if they refuse. And he ordered that states cease using barcode or QR code in the vote counting process, ostensibly to prevent fraud, which would bar many jurisdictions from using voting machines. Trump and his minions fatuously insist that this is being done to restore faith in the electoral process — faith that was shaken by Trump’s Big Lie.
Those orders are being challenged in court but the DOJ is following up anyway. They recently demanded that the Colorado Secretary of State turn over “all records” relating to 2024 federal elections, as well as preserve any records that remain from the 2020 election, a mammoth request apparently related to the prosecution of a Republican elected official who was convicted of election crimes and who Trump has called a “political prisoner.”
Last week, the NY Times reported that the Justice Department is considering charging election officials with a federal crime if they believe they have not adequately protected their computer systems. That’s been one of Trump’s hobby horses since 2020, in which he accused the voting machine companies of allowing their machines to be hacked on Joe Biden’s behalf. (You may recall that cost Fox News a whole lot of money when they repeated Trump’s lies.)
All of this was foreshadowed by Project 2025, which laid out plans to create unprecedented federal interference in the way elections are managed. I don’t think it’s being paranoid to expect that 2026 elections that result in victories that could change the balance of power are going to be contested. And I wouldn’t bet too much money on the courts being as straight forwardly dismissive as they were the last time. If they are, the Republicans will appeal it all the way to the Supreme Court just as they do everything else these days and we might not know who won until the election of 2028 is already underway.
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