Dan Pfeiffer’s analysis of the political ramifications of the Big brutal Bill is interesting. We know we have a pretty good chance of taking the House. I’ll leave it to you to decide if he’s right about the senate:
Congress has done a lot of dumb shit over the years, but this bill—if and when it becomes law—might just be the dumbest. The whole process of passing it has been surreal and serves as a metaphor for the Trump-era Republican Party. No one is asking for it. Other than preventing a tax increase, it doesn’t achieve a single long-standing conservative policy goal. No one campaigned on these ideas, and the public is screaming that they hate the bill. It’s bad policy, worse politics—and yet Republicans march onward because Donald Trump wants a “win.” Not a substantive win. Not even a political win. Just a win for the sake of a win. That’s the only rationale. There’s no further consideration for why this bill should be passed or what happens when it does. They do it because Trump wants it—even though he has no idea why he wants it, or what’s in it.
In the past, passage of bills this destructive and unpopular has triggered political earthquakes that reshaped the map. At this moment, Democrats are probably slight favorites to take the House, but the Senate has been considered just out of reach. Will the passage of this monstrosity put the Senate firmly in play?
Well:
Republicans are lucky they’re trying to commit political suicide in a cycle where the Senate map favors them…
Susan Collins of Maine is the most vulnerable Republican up this cycle. Kamala Harris won Maine by 7 points, and Collins was re-elected in 2020 even though Biden won the state by more. She’s beatable, but it won’t be easy.
Thom Tillis of North Carolina was considered the second most vulnerable Republican. But this weekend, he stunned everyone by announcing his retirement after Trump attacked him for opposing the bill. Tillis’s departure makes this seat a lot easier for Democrats to contest. North Carolina isn’t exactly overflowing with electable Republicans—this is the state that nominated Mark Robinson for governor.
If Democrats hold all of their current seats and pick up Maine and North Carolina, they still need two more to reach a majority. That means venturing into deeper red territory. The best opportunities are probably:
- Iowa, a rural state likely to be hammered by Medicaid cuts.
- Nebraska, where Independent Dan Osborn may run again.
- Texas, where Republicans could nominate a toxic candidate like Ken Paxton.
I’m not saying it’s easy—far from it. Everything would have to go right. But thanks to this vote, there’s now an opportunity that didn’t exist before.
In the before times this would not have been beyond the realm of possibility. Senate majorities have changed hands with even worse prospects after a political earthquake like this. But today the red states are so brainwashed and cultish that it’s hard to imagine any state like Nebraska or Texas will vote for Democrats again.
Still, as Pfeiffer says, there is now an opportunity that didn’t exist before. Maybe things will break our way.
