The Trump administration on Wednesday lifted sanctions against a Serbian nationalist leader who had been accused of undermining a U.S.-brokered peace agreement that ended bloody sectarian fighting in the 1990s in the Balkans.
The sanctions relief for Milorad Dodik, who had served until earlier this month as president of a small self-governing territory in Bosnia and Herzegovina called Republika Srpska, was a victory for the politician and for a pricey influence campaign mounted on his behalf by several allies of President Trump.
The removal of the sanctions could allow Mr. Dodik, who is still the leader of the ruling party in Srpska and has closely allied himself with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, to remain influential in the Serb-controlled region even without a formal role in the government.
Sanctions were also lifted against members of Mr. Dodik’s family and inner circle, as well as companies associated with them, some of which had previously been accused by the Treasury Department of being part of Mr. Dodik’s “corrupt patronage network.”
I’m sure you’re curious about how this came about:
One of the lobbyists, Marc Zell, signed a contract with the Srpska government late last year calling for his firm to be paid $1 million for one year, with an additional “success fee” for “bringing about the cancellation/termination of all sanctions.”
Mr. Zell did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Also taking up Mr. Dodik’s cause were several prominent figures in Mr. Trump’s orbit. They included Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former New York City mayor who served as the president’s personal lawyer during his first term; Michael T. Flynn, the retired lieutenant general who briefly served as national security adviser in the first Trump White House; Laura Loomer, the right wing provocateur who has the ear of the president; and Rod Blagojevich, the former governor of Illinois, who was pardoned by Mr. Trump in February before signing a contract with the Srpska government the following month for an undisclosed sum.
Pardons, sanctions, wars, visas — it’s all for sale under this regime. War criminals are lining up.
We know that no matter what happened in the trade talks in Asia Trump would have strutted around declaring it the greatest negotiation in history, saying that all the foreign leaders love him and he’s brought home gazillions for the American people. With Al the triumphant ceremonies we’ve seen over this interminable 10 months of his second administration, we can count on it being hype and should discount anything he says.
In reality, the trade talks with Xi Jinping were basically a short term truce at best. The NY Times:
When Xi Jinping walked out of his meeting with President Trump on Thursday, he projected the confidence of a powerful leader who could make Washington blink.
The outcome of the talks suggested that he succeeded.
By flexing China’s near monopoly on rare earths and its purchasing power over U.S. soybeans, Mr. Xi won key concessions from Washington — a reduction in tariffs, a suspension of port fees on Chinese ships and the delay of U.S. export controls that would have barred more Chinese firms from accessing American technology. Both sides also agreed to extend a truce struck earlier this year to limit tariffs.
“What’s clear is they have become increasingly bold in exerting leverage and they are happy to pocket any and all U.S. concessions,” said Julian Gewirtz, who was a senior China policy official at the White House and the State Department in President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s administration.
Sounding almost like he was delivering a lecture, Mr. Xi said to Mr. Trump that the “recent twists and turns” of the trade war should be instructive to them both, according to a Chinese government summary of Mr. Xi’s remarks at the meeting in Busan, South Korea.
He was saying that he recent twists and turns should have taught the Orange fool a lesson. Unfortunately, he’s wrong about that. Trump can’t learn.
Krugman wrote about the bigger issues yesterday. Turns out the tacos aren’t that great:
He surveys the ways in which this tariff war has hurt the economy starting with higher prices. He explains the difference in that graph above pointing out that one of the reasons tariffs haven’t caused more inflation is only partly because businesses are “eating the tariffs” and is instead likely due to a wide range of legal tariff avoidance schemes by foreign exporters who figure out ways around Trump’s complex and ultimately stupid rules.
Other ways of avoiding tariffs may not be legal or may at any rate frustrate the tariffs’ goals. Goods from countries that are the subject of high tariffs may be laundered, transshipped via countries facing lower tariffs. Exporters may find ways to relabel what they sell, to qualify for lower rates. There’s surely some fraud involved — how could there not be, given the incentives? — but in any case the bottom line is that in practice tariffs haven’t gone up as much as you might have thought. And I don’t see any obvious reason to believe that tariff avoidance will go away. It will probably be a quasi-permanent feature of the system.
If this is the primary reason why the tariffs haven’t resulted in a huge spike in prices it’s good new because it means “the unwillingness of businesses to pass on tariffs has probably been a smaller factor in holding down prices than widely assumed” and we may not be looking at a big rise in inflation in the future.
Then there’s uncertainty and the “frozen job market”
The Trump tariffs were supposed to bring about a revival of U.S. manufacturing. That’s obviously not happening so far: Manufacturing employment is down, partly because some of Trump’s tariffs, notably on steel and aluminum, have substantially raised producers’ costs.
On the other hand, the tariffs haven’t caused large-scale layoffs, although several major employers including Amazon, UPS and Target have announced big layoff plans in the past few days.
The most striking thing about the labor market, however, isn’t large-scale job loss. It is, instead, the way the market has frozen, with very low rates of hiring. I wrote about this last week. The no-hire economy has made life very difficult for young people just entering the work force as well as for those who have, for whatever reason, lost jobs. It also greatly reduces workers’ bargaining power. A new report from the JPMorganChase Institute finds that wage gains have slowed sharply across the board, with young workers seeing the slowest wage growth since 2011. Against the background of accelerating inflation, this is a serious blow to U.S. workers.
And the uncertainty created by temper-tantrum tariff policy is probably the biggest single reason for the frozen job market.
He’s hopeful that the Asia tour has produced some stability. I’ll be surprised.
And then there’s the long lasting damage to the U.S and global world order:
Soon, I expect, Trump will be declaring victory after performing a climb-down on tariffs and touting make-believe investment numbers. He will proclaim that he won the trade war. Well, he didn’t.
The main benefit from these deals (assuming they happen and last for a while), is that the United States will stop hitting itself in the face. U.S. consumers, producers and workers have been the main victims of Trump’s tariffs. We could have achieved victory by not hitting ourselves in the face in the first place.
Furthermore, these deals cannot fix the more profound damage that six months of tariff madness has inflicted: the incalculable damage to U.S. credibility and, with it, to the global world economic order.
First, everything — everything — Trump has done on trade has, in addition to its illegality, been a violation of past U.S. agreements with other countries. So we emerge from the trade war as a nation that can no longer be trusted to honor its promises.
Second, if we look at the confrontation with China in particular, the end result looks like a demonstration of U.S. weakness and Chinese strength. China may offer some cosmetic concessions, promising to buy some soybeans or whatever. But the reality — which is obvious to everyone in the world except, possibly, some U.S. voters — is that Trump threatened extremely high tariffs on China but climbed down when China began curtailing exports of rare earths and other industrial inputs. China had the upper hand, and it played it.
In fact, I’d argue that China is now clearly winning its geopolitical conflict with the United States. America used to be able to count on support from its democratic allies. Now it has alienated them, and established a reputation for arbitrarily reneging on agreements. America used to have unmatched economic leverage. Now the world knows that China has more.
It’s similar to the way he dropped the big bunker buster bombs on Iran’s nuclear sites and proved that our biggest non-nuclear threat wasn’t really all that.
He just keeps showing the world that America is a big, stupid, giant that can’t be trusted.
Vance says it is "totally reasonable and acceptable" for people to not want to live next door to people who speak a different language than they do pic.twitter.com/Z2JBc85kau
Question: When you talk about too many immigrants here, when did you guys decide that number? Why did you sell us a dream? You made us spend our youth, our wealth in this country and gave us a dream. You don’t owe us anything. We have worked hard for it.
How can you as a vice president stand there and say that we have too many of them now and we are going to take them out to people who are here rightfully so by paying the money that you guys asked us? You gave us the path and now how can you stop it and tell us we don’t belong here anymore?
Question: When you talk about too many immigrants here, when did you guys decide that number? Why did you sell us a dream? You made us spend our youth, our wealth in this country and gave us a dream. You don't owe us anything. We have worked hard for it. How can you as a vice… pic.twitter.com/6rxqW0aWpZ
JD Vance says he’s raising his children Christian, and he hopes his agnostic wife, Usha, comes around to the Christian faith.
“Most Sundays, Usha comes with me to church.” “Do I hope eventually she is moved by the same thing I was moved by? Yes. I honestly do wish that. I believe in the Christian gospel, and I hope eventually, my wife comes to see it the same way.”
🚨 JUST IN: JD Vance says he's raising his children Christian, and he hopes his agnostic wife, Usha, comes around to the Christian faith
Vance's 8-year-old did his first Communion "about a year ago," and his two oldest kids go to a Christian school
Everyone knew. And they voted for him anyway. They either liked that agenda very much or … eggs. And they just couldn’t stomach an old man or a Black woman.
Republicans are more apt than Democrats or independents to favor the demolition of the East Wing, but strong support among Republicans is far smaller than strong opposition among Democrats. Among Republicans, 62% support the project, with 35% strongly in favor. Democratic opposition stands at 88%, including 78% who strongly oppose it, while 61% of independents oppose the project, including 49% who feel that way strongly.
That mere 28% of Americans supporting the demolition means the destruction is eating into Trump’s MAGA base.
Evangelicals and Catholics uneasy with President Trump‘s rhetoric and immigration policies are subtly distancing themselves from MAGA — and taking some congregation members with them.
Driving the news: Some churches are seeing a “quiet quitting” trend as pastors avoid political sermons and help members disengage from Trump’s movement — without ostracizing family members who might still be MAGA devotees.
“We’ve gotten more testimonials. I’m starting to now see ‘Leaving MAGA’ signs popping up on billboards, overpasses, and [at] No Kings protests,” said Rich Logis, a Catholic ex-Trump supporter who founded a group called Leaving MAGA.
-19 net approval rating: Trump’s approval rating dipped to a second-term low of 39% in Economist/YouGov polling, while 58% disapprove of his job performance in the survey taken Oct. 24-27 among 1,623 U.S. adults (margin of error 3.5).
Trump’s net approval rating in the poll is also lower than all but one Economist/YouGov survey taken during his first term.
Trump told reporters Tuesday he has the “highest [poll] numbers I ever had,” repeating a claim he made Monday on Truth Social, despite polling averages and most individual surveys showing his approval rating has declined significantly since he took office in January.
But that poll on the East Wing demolition is telling, even if, with Americans’ short memories, his numbers rebound slightly. Send him to bed without his Big Mac.
Depending on which news outlets one trusts most, Republican support for Trump tariffs is beginning to flag or else Democrats are in increasing disarray and about to “blink” on the budget crisis and sacrifice Obamacare.
Republicans from farm states have had enough of the government shutdown now in its 30th day. Donald Trump’s suggestion on Oct.19 that he might import beef from Argentina has sent them over the edge, Politico reports:
Some of the president’s staunchest Hill allies watched for months as Trump’s tariffs devastated farmers. More recently, they begged his deputies to reopen key farm offices during the shutdown. Then came the beef beef, with one GOP senator granted anonymity to speak candidly calling it a “a betrayal of America First principles.”
Even in the Trump-loyal House, key Republicans are pushing back.
Trump’s whipsawing of his own supporters is eroding his support on Capitol Hill.
The frustrations are also playing out on the Senate floor this week on a series of votes to undo some of Trump’s global tariffs. On Tuesday, five GOP senators joined Democrats to reverse 50 percent tariffs on Brazil; four Republicans voted Wednesday to cancel tariffs on Canada. While the votes are largely symbolic — House Republicans have preempted any challenges to Trump tariffs until February — the message was sent.
Over in the Senate, 10 Republicans have signed to Sen. Josh Hawley’s (R-Mo.) bill to fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) through the shutdown, The Hill reports:
The Keep SNAP Funded Act of 2025 would fund the food aid program for states across the country until the nearly-month-long government shutdown ends and the Department of Agriculture (USDA) can receive its allotments through appropriations or stopgap measures.
“There is no reason any of these residents of my state — or any other American who qualifies for food assistance — should go hungry. We can afford to provide the help,” Hawley wrote in a Tuesday op-ed for The New York Times.
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) indicated on Wednesday that Democrats would support Hawley’s bill, if Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R) of South Dakota would allow it to onto the floor for a vote. So far, he won’t. And the USDA refuses to release $6 billion in reserve funds, claiming (falsely) that they are “not legally available to cover regular benefits.“
The monthly cost for SNAP is estimated at $8 billion.
“The Republicans have been on a crusade against SNAP all year,” said Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y. “They slashed it by $200 billion this summer to pay for their tax cuts for billionaires. So they’ve never wanted SNAP, and they don’t want it now. Again, they’re using these 40 million innocent people as pawns.”
Sen. Ben Ray Luján, D-N.M., introduced a bill this week that would require the Trump administration to fund both SNAP and Special Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC). It would also require the government to reimburse states for funding benefits during the shutdown. That’s also a nonstarter of Thune.
Thune on Wednesday shouted that if Democrats want to save SNAP, they must vote to reopen the government (ABC News):
“Let me just point out if I might that we are 29 days into a Democrat shutdown. And the senator from New Mexico is absolutely right. SNAP recipients shouldn’t go without food. People should be getting paid in this country,” Thune said before escalating his voice to a full scream. “And we’ve tried to do that 13 times and you voted no 13 times. This isn’t a political game. These are real peoples lives that we are talking about and you all have just figured out 29 days in that, ‘Oh there might be some consequences, that people are running out of money.'”
Lujan’s bill came as 25 states have filed a lawsuit on the issue ahead of the halting of benefits at the start of November.
“The Trump administration has the authority and the funds to keep SNAP running during this shutdown,” Lujan said. “Any failure to do so right now falls squarely on the Trump administration and Republicans.”
The Republicans’ budget reconciliation bill of July, the law they call the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” cut more than $1 trillion from Medicaid and made dramatic changes to SNAP, including cuts of $187 billion from SNAP over ten years. Crucially, the Republicans designed those cuts to go into effect after the 2026 midterm elections.
But their refusal to extend the premium tax credits and end the government shutdown has given Americans an early taste of what those changes will mean.
Democrats just need to “get off their ass,” the man shouted out the window at the traffic light during Wednesday rush hour. He was replying to my sign that declared 29,000 county residents will lose SNAP benefits on Saturday. Presumably, he prefers that Democrats cave on the Trump funding bill stalled in the House. It eliminates ACA premium subsidies that nearly 80 percent of Americans want extended. It would permanently more than double (if not triple) health premium costs for over 24 million Americans. Or 40 million Americans can go hungry until shutdown’s end. He’s willing to split that baby. Democrats so far are not.
Powell: "In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals."
Powell: "Job gains have slowed significantly since earlier in the year. A good part of the slowing likely reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well."
Two federal prosecutors have been placed on administrative leave just hours after describing the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol as perpetrated by “thousands of people comprising a mob of rioters,” according to two people familiar with the move who were granted anonymity to discuss personnel matters.
The accurate description of the attack came in a sentencing recommendation for Taylor Taranto, who was among those pardoned by President Donald Trump for his role in the riot. But Taranto had also been charged for unrelated threats and firearms crimes for which he is slated to be sentenced Friday.
Assistant U.S. Attorneys Carlos Valdivia and Samuel White urged U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols to sentence Taranto to more than two years in prison for a hoax threat against the National Institute of Standards and Technology and for driving through former President Barack Obama’s neighborhood with a van full of firearms and ammunition.
[…]
The memo also describes an incident the same month in which Taranto visited an elementary school in Maryland while seeking Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin, a top Trump adversary.
The threat to Obama was precipitated by Donald Trump posting Obama’s address on Truth Social.
I’m not kidding.
The sentencing memo was submitted to the court and quickly withdrawn and the press only knows about it because someone had it on file before they managed to do it. And then the prosecutors were “suspended” and replaced by someone else.
Apparently, January 6th never happened. We all suffered from a mass hallucination. Maybe it was a hoax!
This is the second time in a week that we’re seeing excuses and cover-ups for January 6th pardon recipients threatening Democratic politicians, on explicitly political terms.
Q: Getting back to the threat to Hakeem Jeffries, this is one of a number of January 6 pardons that have been rearrested on various charges. Did Trump make a mistake?
MIKE JOHNSON: I don't know any of the details of this at all. I will tell you this — the violence on the left… pic.twitter.com/pFYEE6usbB
MIKE JOHNSON: I don’t know any of the details of this at all. I will tell you this — the violence on the left is far more prevalent than the violence on the right. The rhetoric that you saw on Saturday plays into this.
He was referring to the peaceful, lawful No Kings day protests in which nobody stormed building and beat up any cops. Ok.
They are all on board with this sophistry:
Sen. Eric Schmitt on political violence: "Let's be clear: this isn't a both sides thing right now. This is happening on the left … look at what happened when the Catholic school kids were being shot at in church." (The Annunciation shooting was not an act of political violence… pic.twitter.com/VJdGE0Wx22
That shooting was not political violence. It was an ordinary every day mass shooting which these people don’t give a shit about.
I won’t bother to say there’s a double standard here. It’s way beyond that. They are simply defying reality in order to lick Dear Leaders boots. All of them.
He’s always posted 24/7 and I suppose it’s makes sense that once in a while he’d post something like this, right?
No actually, it doesn’t. I’m online most of my waking hours and I’m often sleep deprived and I’ve never done this. It requires an extra step to post something on Truth Social, just as it does on all the social media platforms. How does someone fall asleep while typing and then hit post?
Recall that this comes after he mistakenly posted his directive to Pam Bondi on Truth Social as well. Maybe somebody needs to take grandpa’s phone away?
