I guess he thinks those videos on Truth Social hawking his trading cards and commemorative coins make up for it?
Maybe he’ll pick up the pave in October but I doubt it. His heart hasn’t been in it all year. I don’t think he’s having any fun.
The campaign says he’s planning to do more rallies down the stretch but it’s highly unlikely he’ll do five a day as he sometimes did in 2016. You have to love this from Axios:
Breaking it down: People in Trump’s camp give three primary reasons he’s hitting the road less this time, Axios’ Sophia Cai reports:
He’s a known quantity. The campaign feels less need to define him or his candidacy for voters this time around.
Rallies are expensive. Trump’s campaign managers this cycle are keeping a closer hold on the purse strings.
He’s older, and more inclined to spend his time at Mar-a-Lago.
Gosh, I’m so old I remember when such an observation would have caused the entire beltway establishment to rise up as one questioning whether he has the stamina to be president for four years. In fact, it might have been seen as totally disqualifying.
I guess they figure that all that bonzer and Tresseme hair spray are elixers that will keep him going despite the demonstrable dementia on the stump and his low energy level.
Kamala Harris’ campaign spent nearly three times as much as Donald Trump’s did in August — but raised so much that she still grew her cash advantage.
The massive spending disparity came even as the Trump campaign continued to scale up its expenses, which more than doubled from the month prior, according to a POLITICO analysis of campaign finance filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission late Friday. But the continued divergence highlights the Harris campaign’s significant money and infrastructure advantage as the election approaches: Harris has far more campaign cash available than Trump, and she has greater means to deploy it.
Harris entered August with more money than Trump, and managed to raise more than she spent over the month. Trump’s campaign, by contrast, spent more than it raised despite far fewer expenses. Her campaign reported taking in $190 million; his, just shy of $45 million.
The vice president’s campaign outspent Trump $174 million to $61 million in August. But Harris’ preexisting cash advantage and superior fundraising mean that she ended the month with $235 million, $100 million more than Trump.
And then there’s this rather astonishing comparison:
The Harris campaign and the Democratic National Committee had a combined more than 1,200 staffers on payroll, compared to about 320 for the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee.
I guess they’re hoping that Charlie Kirk and Turning Point can get the incel boys out to knock on doors?
The RNC has slightly more money in the bank than the DNC ($79 to 50 million) but we don’t know how much they have from the joint fundraising committees and I would guess their at least fairly even. The DNC is spending more on canvassing and the RNC spend on direct mail (much more lucrative for the wingnut grifters…)
Trump is relying on Super PACs funded by his billionaire buddies and we don’t know yet how much they raised and spent. Maybe it’s a wash. But you have to wonder if they are all just doing their own thing without any common themes and if that’s effective.
The big difference is that the Democrats dwarfed the Republicans with small donor donations which is one fair way to gauge enthusiasm. By that measure, the Democrats are far more excited about the race than MAGA.
When I look at the Trump rallies these days it really does look like a lot of them are just going through the motions. It’s the same old thing and the group dynamic they used to love — the party that went along with it —- just doesn’t seem to have much spark.
They’ll all vote for him again. But I think it’s becoming less central to their lives. He’s rapidly becoming a nostalgia act and I don’t think they are willing to pay top dollar for the show anymore.
This paternalistic “big daddy” view is something he does with any constituency he believes doesn’t appreciate him enough. “Look what I did for you!” “”I gave you everything and you should be grateful!” “I’ll make you so happy you won’t want any of the things you think you want!”
He does it with Black people, Jews, women, Latinos — everyone who doesn’t worship him. It’s creepy.
A double-digit increase in popularity, rising Democratic enthusiasm and an early edge for representing “change” have vaulted Vice President Kamala Harris forward and reshuffled the 2024 presidential contest, according to a new national NBC News poll.
With just over six weeks until Election Day, the poll finds Harris with a 5-point lead over former PresidentDonald Trump among registered voters, 49% to 44%. While that result is within the margin of error, it’s a clear shift from July’s poll, when Trump was ahead by 2 points before President Joe Biden’s exit.
Kamala’s favorability has jumped 16 points since July, “the largest increase for any politician in NBC News polling since then-PresidentGeorge W. Bush’s standing surgedafter the9/11 terrorist attacks.”
Harris also holds the advantage over Trump onbeing seen as competent and effective, as well as onhaving the mental and physical health to be president — a reversal from Trump’s leads on those qualities when he was matched up againstBiden.
And in a contest between a sitting vice president and an ex-president, featuring an electorate that overwhelmingly thinks the U.S. is “on the wrong track,” Harris has the upper hand on which candidate better represents change and which candidate can get the country headed in the right direction.
That last is because we feel like we’ve been forced to deal with Orange Julius Caesar for at least a century.
A little tidbit:
In an expanded ballot with third-party candidates, Harris leads Trump by 6 points, 47% to 41% — with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2%, Jill Stein at 2% and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1%. (Respondents were only able to pick from the major third-party candidates who will actuallyappear on the ballot in their states.)
As for “issues” people still inexplicably think Trump will be better on inflation and toughness on the border:
Harris’ best results are on protecting immigrant rights (where she has a 28-point lead over Trump), abortion (+21 points), having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (+20 points), having the right temperament to be president (+16 points) and representing change (+9 points).
By comparison, Trump’s biggest leads are on securing the border (+21), the economy (+9) and dealing with the cost of living (+8).
However:
Those current Trump advantages, however, are all down from when Biden was still in the race. When NBC News put those questions to voters about Trump and Biden in January, Trump led the president by 35 points on the issue of securing the border and controlling immigration and by 22 points on dealing with the economy.
In April, voters gave Trump a 22-point edge over Biden on dealing with inflation and the cost of living, too.
This is huge:
In July, 32% of registered voters had a positive view of Harris, versus 50% who saw her in a negative light (-18 net rating) — almost identical to Biden’s rating.
But in this new poll, Harris is now at 48% positive, 45% negative (+3).
No major-party presidential candidate in the 35-year history of the NBC News poll has seen this kind of jump in popularity in an election.
All in all, a very positive result. I still can’t believe it’s this close but I’ll take it.
The Reformation may have decentralized the faith and brought it closer to the people, but it also meant by the late 20th century that any American huckster with a flashy suit, an expensive coif, a sonorous voice, and a black, Morocco-bound, gilt-edged, King James red-letter edition could define Christianity pretty much any damned way he pleased. And did. Who was to say he was wrong?
“I’ll tell you a secret, since media is not here,” Johnson teased the group, unaware that his hosts were streaming video of the event. Johnson informed his audience that God “had been speaking to me” about becoming speaker, communicating “very specifically,” in fact, waking him at night and giving him “plans and procedures.”
God, said Johnson, told him that “we’re coming to a Red Sea moment” and that Johnson needed to be prepared — to be Moses! Throughout the speakership battle, “the Lord kept telling me to wait,” Johnson recounted. “And it came to the end, and the Lord said, ‘Now, step forward.’” Johnson told them that “only God saw the path through the roiling sea.”
In Sleeper (1973), Miles Monroe (Woody Allen) is asked 200 years in the future to identify photos of people from his time. One could replace Billy Graham with Mike Johnson:
This is Billy Graham. He was very big in the religion business, you know. He knew God personally. Got him his complete wardrobe to go out on double dates together. It was a very big thing. They were romantically linked for awhile.
Johnson’s tenure is just as absurd and covers a period both tumultuous and damnably unproductive. What will future histotians will make of it?
Today, Johnson’s run looks anything but heaven-sent. In the first 18 months of this Congress, only 70 laws were enacted. Calculations by political scientist Tobin Grant, who tracks congressional output over time, put this Congress on course to be the do-nothingest since 1859-1861 — when the Union was dissolving. But Johnson’s House isn’t merely unproductive; it is positively lunatic. Republicans have filled their committee hearings and their bills with white nationalist attacks on racial diversity and immigrants, attempts to ban abortion and to expand access to the sort of guns used in mass shootings, incessant harassment of LGBTQ Americans, and even routine potshots at the U.S. military. They insulted each other’s private parts, accused each other of sexual and financial crimes, and scuffled with each other in the Capitol basement. They screamed “Bullshit!” at President Joe Biden during the State of the Union address. They stood up for the Confederacy and used their official powers to spread conspiracy theories about the “Deep State.” Some even lent credence to the idea that there has been a century-old Deep State coverup of space aliens, with possible involvement by Mussolini and the Vatican.
You get the picture.
Donald Trump’s crank politics became a thing to emulate to get ahead in his Republican Party. David French at the Times suggests that Republicans’ and evangelicals’ taste for transgressiveness matching his has led to men like Mark “I’m a Black Nazi” Robinson being chosen by GOP primary voters as their candidate for governor in North Carolina by a 45-point margin over his nearest compretitor. It’s how you get a Marjorie Taylor Greene, or a Lauren Boebert, or a Matt Gaetz, French explains. Leaders change insitutions. “They make them into images of themselves.” And hoo-boy, did he ever.
“Republican voters knew [Robinson] was a bad man when they chose him. Now they know he is a very bad man,” French writes.
Yes, that’s what they like about him. In their nihilism (or is it apocalypticism?), the MAGA cult is prepared to burn down the republic and install a dictator in a Bizarro version of Jesus overturning the money changers’ tables. It’s what Donald would do. (WWDD?)
French is concerned what it means for the trajectory of the Republican Party:
The yearslong elevation of figures like Mark Robinson and the many other outrageous MAGA personalities, along with the devolution of people in MAGA’s inner orbit — JD Vance, Elon Musk, Lindsey Graham and so very many others — has established beyond doubt that Trump has changed the Republican Party and Republican Christians far more than they have changed him.
In nine years, countless Republican primary voters have moved from voting for Trump in spite of his transgressions to rejecting anyone who doesn’t transgress. If you’re not transgressive, you’re suspicious. Decency is countercultural in the Republican Party. It’s seen as a rebuke of Trump.
But it’s the linkage between Christianity and transgressive politics that French glosses over that should be disturbing to the vast majority of American Christians who’ve escaped the Trump contagion. Any day soon, MAGA could declare Trump born of a virgin and, as I beagn above, who is to call it blasphemy. Christianity seems no more able to police itself than the Republican Party.
Battleground state doesn’t just refer to the election
Marc Elias of Democracy Docket previews his newsletter today (sorry, no link). He’s focused on efforts in the courts to preserve voting rights vs. those who challenge them. Two graphics are particularly handy.
First the trend in voting lawsuits since 2020:
The second graphic displays the number of active voting rights lawsuits by state.
Texas and California may be outliers because they are each so big, population-wise as well as Latino population-wise. The other 7+ states are six swing states in hot contention this fall. Republicans would convince their base that it is “Democrats and progressive groups are actively using the courts to bring last minute litigation to change the rules of voting.” The data says otherwise, Elias contends.
He writes:
The state of our democracy has revealed itself. Democrats will go into the election supporting free and fair elections while Republicans will continue to attack them. I wish it were otherwise. Perhaps if they suffer big enough losses, in two years it will be. But for now, election denialism remains firmly in control of the once grand old party.
As hordes of photographers began descending on a small, rural community to capture its vibrant autumnal colours, local residents have been fighting back – and winning.
To enter the town of Pomfret, located in the US state of Vermont, is to be instantly struck by its bucolic beauty. From the north, Howe Hill Road winds downhill in a series of gentle curves, each sweep revealing verdant farm fields dotted with sheep, or swaths of forest in which the red and orange autumn leaves cling to boughs. At one home, a tree heavy with apples bends over a meticulously maintained stone wall, its slate top filled with decaying fruit.
But come early autumn, more than half of the cars driving through this 900-person town will sport out-of-state license plates, coming to abrupt stops on a road with a 45-mile-per-hour speed limit, blocking one of two lanes. The reason? To take a picture of a farm’s silo against a backdrop of autumn leaves.
With a mere handful of businesses – a general mercantile store, an art centre with a gallery and a theatre and a few pick-your-own apple or pumpkin farms – Pomfret is generally a quiet, unassuming place. But in autumn as “leaf-peepers” from around the world descend on the region’s rolling hills and fetching small towns to witness its kaleidoscopic foliage, that all changes.
Until recently, the number of leaf-peepers visiting Pomfret was more trickle than torrent. But ever since images of Sleepy Hollow Farm, a 115-acre private property set on a rustic road, began going viral on social media a few years ago, locals say things have gotten out of hand. […]
“It’s a beautiful spot. It’s too bad it’s been ruined for everybody,” said Deborah Goodwin, the exhibits coordinator at Pomfret’s Artistree Community Arts Center. “[For] the past couple years it’s been out of control. Tour buses were just dumping… people out there.”
Goodwin says social media influencers would regularly climb over a gate plastered with “No Trespassing” signs, set up changing booths to accommodate their many costume swaps, get their “city cars” stuck on the narrow dirt road, and leave bodily waste by the roadside. “It was bad,” she recalled. “The residents went to the [local government] and said, ‘We can’t have this anymore.'”
During the 2022 leaf-peeping season, law enforcement temporarily turned the road past Sleepy Hollow into a one-way thoroughfare. It wasn’t enough to deter tourists from behaving badly. In 2023, local residents tried a different approach: crowdsourced funding. […]
As a result, town officials voted to close the roads leading to the farm during the peak fall foliage season (23 September to 15 October) to non-residents, spurring the ire of travellers who had driven to the area in hopes of capturing a perfectly curated autumn photo.
“It’s a hotel and amusement park,” scoffed one Instagrammer with 153,000 followers. “Bring all your friends and RVs.”
Most Pomfret residents stressed that they’re not anti-tourist; they simply want people to treat their hometown with respect. Even more concerning than issues of private property, several mentioned, are safety concerns for the residents of Cloudland Road, as well as the tourists themselves.
According to Windsor County Sheriff Ryan Palmer, “This is not a road that’s designed to have multiple vehicles on it. [In 2021 and 2022] there were lines of traffic parked up and down the roadway, and you couldn’t get fire apparatus or an ambulance through. It was just overwhelming the infrastructure in the area.” […]
Palmer hopes that the Pomfret drama is a “one-and-done” deal. Residents have floated the idea of creating a reservation or ticketing system for visits to Sleepy Hollow to help manage the tourist rush in a more responsible way, but as far as he knows, that option isn’t under serious consideration. In fact: feedback on the traffic pattern changes implemented in 2023 has been largely positive, leading to the Pomfret Selectboard’s decision to implement similar road closures for the imminent 2024 foliage season.
Very bucolic, but I’m happy to simply enjoy the photo; I don’t feel an urge to drive several thousand miles just to snap a selfie. As Roy Neary says in CloseEncounters of the Third Kind, “You think I investigate every Walter Cronkite story there is?!”
As another character in Close Encounters observes, “Einstein was right”. Each year passes faster than the previous. Per Pink Floyd, You can runto catch up with the sun, but it’s sinking; racing around to come up behind you again. To wit…The sun is the same in a relative way but you’re older; shorter of breath and one day closer to death.
Don’t you hate that?
Since the Fall Equinox has raced around and come up behind us again, I thought I’d rake through my music collection and curate a pile of suitably autumnal tunes.
To follow Shel Silverstein’s lead…Let’s jump right in!
“Autumn Almanac” – The Kinks
Released as a single in the UK in 1967, Ray Davies’ fond sense memory of the Muswell Hill neighborhood of North London where he grew up recalls The Beatles’ “Penny Lane”.
From the dew-soaked hedge creeps a crawly caterpillar When the dawn begins to crack It’s all part of my autumn almanac
Breeze blows leaves of a musty-coloured yellow So I sweep them in my sack Yes, yes, yes, it’s my autumn almanac
“Autumn Leaves” -Jim Hall & Ron Carter
Lovely instrumental cover of Joeseph Kosma & Jacques Prevert’s classic (originally popularized by Yves Montand in Marcel Carné’s 1946 film noir Les Portes de la Nuit) performed live by two jazz greats-Jim Hall (guitar) and Ron Carter (stand-up bass).
“The Boys of Summer” – Don Henley
I suppose one could make a case either way as to whether Don Henley’s 1984 hit qualifies as a “summer song” or an “autumn song”. Here’s my gauge: generally speaking, upbeat and celebratory is a summer mood; wistful and introspective is autumnal.
Nobody on the road Nobody on the beach I feel it in the air The summer’s out of reach Empty lake, empty streets The sun goes down alone I’m driving by your house Though I know you’re not home
“Falling” – Joe Vitale
Joe Vitale was a key member of Joe Walsh’s first post-James Gang band Barnstorm. In addition to contributing drums, flute, keyboards and vocals, Vitale also co-wrote some of the songs. This cut is from his outstanding debut solo album, Roller Coaster Weekend (1974).
“Forever Autumn” – Justin Hayward
This lovely tune, featuring a lead vocal by Justin Hayward of the Moody Blues was a highlight of Jeff Wayne’s 1978 double LP rock musical adaptation of H.G. Wells’ War of the Worlds.
“Harvest Moon” – Neil Young
This track is from from Young’s eponymous 1992 album (a sort of sequel to 1972’s Harvest), which won a Juno award (Canada’s equivalent to a Grammy) for Album of the Year.
“Indian Summer” -Dream Academy
The Dream Academy’s most wistful and transporting song is best appreciated with a good set of headphones. Drift away…
It was the time of year just after the summer’s gone When August and September just become memories of songs To be put away with the summer clothes And packed up in the attic for another year We had decided to stay on for a few weeks more Although the season was over now the days were still warm And seemed reluctant to five up and hand over to winter for another year
“Inner Garden I” – King Crimson
Contrary to what you may assume, not every track by this venerable prog-rock outfit takes up half an album side; some of their best compositions say all they need to say with surprising brevity.
Autumn has come to rest in her garden Come to paint the trees with emptiness And no pardon So many things have come undone Like the leaves on the ground And suddenly she begins to cry But she doesn’t know why…
But the last day of summer Never felt so cold The last day of summer Never felt so old
“Leaf and Stream” – Wishbone Ash
This compelling, melancholic track is sandwiched between a couple of epic rockers on the Ash’s best album, 1972’s Argus (which I wrote about here).
Find myself beside a stream of empty thought, Like a leaf that’s fallen to the ground, And carried by the flow of water to my dreams Woken only by your sound.
“Leaves in the Wind” -Back Street Crawler
Back Street Crawler was a short-lived group formed in 1975 by guitarist Paul Kossoff after he left Free. Sadly, by the time 2nd Street was released in 1976, Kossoff was dead at 25 (lending additional poignancy to his mournful guitar fills on this track).
“Moondance”– Van Morrison
The evocative title track from Morrison’s 1970 album is one of his signature tunes.
Well, it’s a marvelous night for a moondance With the stars up above in your eyes A fantabulous night to make romance ‘Neath the cover of October skies
“November” -Tom Waits
This song is a tad unsettling, yet oddly beautiful. Not unlike Waits’ voice. Dig the theremin.
No shadow No stars No moon No care November It only believes In a pile of dead leaves And a moon That’s the color of bone
“October”-U2
Sporting but two short verses, this was an uncharacteristically minimalist arrangement for U2 at this stage of their career (from the band’s eponymous 1981 album).
October And the trees are stripped bare Of all they wear What do I care?
October And kingdoms rise And kingdoms fall But you go on And on
“Ramble On”-Led Zeppelin
Arguably the One Autumnal Song to Rule Them All, with all its wistfulness and stirrings of wanderlust. Only don’t try to make any sense of the Gollum reference-it’ll make you crazy.
Leaves are falling all around It’s time I was on my way Thanks to you I’m much obliged For such a pleasant stay But now it’s time for me to go The autumn moon lights my way For now I smell the rain And with it pain And it’s headed my way…
“September” – Earth, Wind, & Fire
Well of course I remember “the 21st of September”…it’s today’s date, fergawdsake! Sheesh. One of EWF’s biggest hits, it reached #1 on the Billboard charts in 1978. Ba-dee-yah.
“September Gurls” – Big Star
Founded in 1971 by singer-guitarist Chris Bell and ex-Box Tops singer/guitarist Alex Chilton, Big Star is one of the seminal power pop bands, and this is one of their most defining songs.
“Summer’s Almost Gone” – The Doors
From the Doors’ 1968 album Waiting For the Sun. Haunting, with Jim Morrison in fine form.
Morning found us calmly unaware Noon burn gold into our hair At night, we swim the laughin’ sea When summer’s gone Where will we be?
“Time of No Reply” – Nick Drake
Gone much too soon, his sad short life was as enigmatic as the amazing catalog he left behind.
Summer was gone and the heat died down And Autumn reached for her golden crown I looked behind as I heard a sigh But this was the time of no reply
The sun went down and the crowd went home I was left by the roadside all alone I turned to speak as they went by But this was the time of no reply
“Urge for Going”– Joni Mitchell
You thought I forgot this one, didn’t you? Luck of the alphabet. It feels redundant to label any Joni Mitchell song as “genius”, but it’s hard to believe this came from the pen of a 22 year-old.
I awoke today and found the frost perched on the town It hovered in a frozen sky, then it gobbled summer down When the sun turns traitor cold And all trees are shivering in a naked row I get the urge for going but I never seem to go I get the urge for going When the meadow grass is turning brown
Voter registration is breaking records as Election Day approaches, particularly among young people, many of whom are first-time voters.
On Tuesday’s National Voter Registration Day more than 150,000 people registered through Vote.org, the most the organization has ever seen on that day. The organizationregistered 279,400 voters in all of last year.
Last week, 337,826 people visited a link posted on Instagram by pop star Taylor Swift that directed them to their state’s voter registration site.
Although Swift noted that she would be voting for the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, people don’t have to declare a party affiliation when they register and neither vote.org nor Swift tracked registrations by party. Vote.org has previously told USA TODAY that about 80% of people they register turn out in the next election.
A huge percentage of the newly registered voters are young people, many voting for the first time.
According to Vote.org, voters under 35 made up 81% of Tuesday’s registrations, with the biggest spike among 18-year-olds. On this year’s National Voter Registration Day, 11% of those registered were 18, which is 53% higher than on the same day four years ago.
I may be going out on a limb here but I’d guess most of those young people are going to vote Democratic. Sure, there will be a few incel Trump fans and some who’ll vote 3rd party. But I think these young voters can see where the future is and it isn’t with the weirdos.
It’s going to be a very busy day. Usually the new president goes to the inaugural brunch, takes a nap and then goes to the inaugural ball on day one. Trump says he’s going to take 200 actions and counting.
“A lot but not all of what Trump says he wants to do on day one is going to be illegal or impractical,” said Steve Vladeck, a constitutional law expert at Georgetown University Law Center and a critic of how Trump has wielded executive power. “But even the illegal stuff might go into effect for some time, and he might actually succeed in pushing the law in his direction.”
Here’s a little taste of what he’s promising on immigration on day one:
Ity sounds like it’s going to be quite a day.
Obviously, he can’t do all or really, any of that, on the first day. But recall that in 2017 it didn’t take him very long to enact his Muslim ban and even though the courts eventually pared it back, it created chaos and ended up being fairly draconian in the end anyway. I think we can expect the Mass Deportation promise to be the same. This time, especially if he has a majority in the congress, he’s going to get away with a lot more since the Supreme Court is practically in bed with him.
I have no doubt that he’s much more intent upon carrying out his promises and he will have nothing by henchmen and sycophants willing to help him do it throughout the government. He’s not a paper tiger.
