On Tuesday a successful Iranian drone attack resulted in operations at the Shah gasfield, about 111 miles (180km) south-west of Abu Dhabi, being suspended. The site can produce 1.28bn standard cubic feet of gas a day. It supplies about 20% of the UAE’s gas supply and 5% of the world’s granulated sulphur, which is used in phosphate fertilisers.
On Wednesday an Iranian production facility for the South Pars gasfield, which it shares with Qatar, was struck. The field is the largest in the world and the biggest source of domestic energy in Iran, which sometimes struggles to produce enough electricity.
The strike, which prompted a threat from Tehran of further retaliation against energy infrastructure, was widely reported in Israeli media to have been carried out by Israel with US consent, though neither country immediately confirmed responsibility.
Although Donald Trump said the US had not been given warning of the attack, it seems highly unlikely that US intelligence would not have known about it or that two allies fighting a war together, involving joint military flight traffic control, would not both have been aware.
An Iranian attack subsequently caused “extensive damage” to Qatar’s giant Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility, sending gas prices rocketing and prompting dire warnings over the global economic impact. The price of European gas jumped 35%. Qatar is one of the world’s top LNG producers, alongside the US, Australia and Russia, and Ras Laffan is the world’s largest LNG hub. Iranian drones also struck a Saudi oil refinery on the Red Sea and caused fires at two others in Kuwait.
Oops:
The strikes on so-called upstream gas production facilities by both sides of the Middle East war mark a significant escalation and could have long-term consequences.
It is the first time facilities connected to the production of fossil fuel energy have been hit, rather than sites associated more generally with the oil and gas industry.
The attack on Qatar’s hub “marks a significant escalation in the Middle East war”, Theresa Fallon, the director of the Centre for Russia Europe Asia Studies, wrote on X, adding: “The economic effect will likely be felt for years.”
Although a cessation of hostilities could result in suspended gas and oil shipments returning within months, experts say significant damage to production infrastructure could have an impact that lasts far longer.
Trump knows this is a problem because he’s been threatening to hit these sites repeatedly while always saying that he doesn’t want to do it because it will cripple the industry — which he believes he is entitled to seize for himself.
Israel says Trump knew all about it and of course he did. They’re working together. And Trump is clearly making decisions by simply saying “fuck it — go for it” because he really doesn’t know what else to do. He’s afraid of losing but he has no clue what winning looks like other than Iran waving the white flag and licking his boots.
We’d be better off if he flipped a coin since odds are he’d say no at least some of the time.
It’s a big problem:
One lesson from the 2003 invasion of Iraq was that it took much longer than expected to repair damaged energy production infrastructure. The Bush administration had promised that reconstruction would be funded by oil revenues, but even though contractors were able to access Iraqi plants and $2bn was spent on oil projects, production took more than two years to return to prewar levels.
Energy production in the Gulf has a social, political and diplomatic importance far beyond the economic top line. Social settlements where citizens live under often repressive monarchies are based on the sharing of energy wealth. It is vital to living standards and the ability to attract foreign workers.
Energy is integral to the way countries in the region interact with each other. The brief detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which survived Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year, was a priority for Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, as part of his plans to diversify the Saudi economy. He assessed that tensions with Iran were a drain on resources. On the Iranian side the detente was driven by an economy slowly imploding under US-led sanctions.
Historically closer to Iran because of a shared interest in the South Pars field, Qatar’s anxiety over the attack has been palpable. The field has at times acted as a diplomatic bridge not only between Doha and Tehran but more widely.
Yeah, he’s blown things up. And if it’s repairable, which is questionable, it’s going to take a lot of time, many people are going to die, there will probably be terrorist attacks and a refugee crisis and the economy’s going to be stressed at the very least. And remember, this was for absolutely no reason. There was no imminent threat, the U.S. had set back their nuclear program (after tearing up a treaty that had been working, also for no reason) and the world, while in flux, was not in crisis. Now it is.
Thanks Trump. You’ve really made America great again.







