Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

The Trade War has begun

BREAKING: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau just dropped a bomb on Trump. He speaks directly to the American people.

He explains clearly the repercussions of Trump's Trade War on Canada, and exactly how it's going to cause tremendous pain to Americans.

He is clear that… pic.twitter.com/vGZyHZifWt

— Ed Krassenstein (@EdKrassen) March 4, 2025

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau denounced President Donald Trump for launching a trade war with his country, saying that he won’t back down from a tariff fight with the United States.

“Today, the United States launched a trade war against Canada. At the same time, they’re talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin — a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense,” Trudeau said in Ottawa.“Canadians are reasonable and we are polite, but we will not back down from a fight, not when our country and the well being of everyone in it is at stake.”

Trudeau pledged relief to Canadian workers caught in the trade war’s crosshairs, and told the American people that his quarrel was not with them. “We don’t want this. We want to work with you as a friend and ally, and we don’t want to see you hurt either, but your government has chosen to do this to you,” he said.

Trudeau reserved his bluntest remarks for the president.

“It’s not in my habit to agree with The Wall Street Journal, but Donald, they point out that even though you’re a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do,” Trudeau said. “We two friends fighting is exactly what our opponents around the world want to see.”

It makes no sense but Trump is convinced that he can eliminate the national debt through tariffs and there’s no talking him out of it. He just can’t understand anything and his sycophants either believe his alleged magical prowess to change reality through will alone or are just too cowardly to cross him. So here we are.

The New York Times:

The New York Times has heard from nearly 100 companies that import from China about how the president’s tariffs were affecting them. They are a cross-section of striving enterprises stitched into the global economy: companies that make greeting cards, board games, outdoor footwear, hangers, digital picture frames, coffee equipment, toys, stained-glass windows and custom electronics.

Several themes emerged. American businesses, not Chinese suppliers, were shouldering the cost of tariffs. Many companies said they would have to raise prices to offset the expense if they had not already. Some spoke of a feeling of business paralysis: They were afraid to make plans amid the unpredictable stream of new tariffs, fearing the risk of moving production out of China since no country seemed immune.

Turning to domestic alternatives was usually not viable because they were more expensive, the quality was inferior and there were fewer options. Finally, completely reinventing their supply chain would be a huge undertaking for the companies, requiring time and expense they cannot easily spare.

[…]

For 18 years, Chris Miksovsky’s San Francisco-based company, Humangear, has designed its outdoor and travel products in the United States and produced them in Chinese factories.

But remembering the sting of tariffs during the first Trump presidency, Mr. Miksovsky, 56, wanted to see if domestic manufacturing made more sense now. He wanted to start simple with Humangear’s best-selling but easiest-to-make product: a plastic utensil with a fork on one end and a spoon on the other used for camping.

He emailed six companies, four of which never responded. The two that did express an interest asked a lot of questions about product specifications. After Mr. Miksovsky answered every inquiry, one company stopped answering his emails, and the other replied weeks later apologizing but did not provide a quote.

“It’s very fine to say we’re going to put these tariffs in place to bring jobs back to America,” he said. “That assumes that America has the capability to make your product, and, more important, it assumes that it has the interest in making that product.”

The stock market tanked very quickly this morning but rebounded. I don’t know why. Maybe they think Trump is a magical superhero too. But he is not. The laws of physics and economics have not been suspended. So everyone should take a deep breath. He’s doing it.

Lech Walesa, former hero of the right wing:

Your Excellency, Mr. President,

We watched the report of your conversation with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, with fear and distaste. We find it insulting that you expect Ukraine to show respect and gratitude for the material assistance provided by the United States in its fight against russia. Gratitude is owed to the heroic Ukrainian soldiers who shed their blood in defense of the values of the free world. They have been dying on the front lines for more than 11 years in the name of these values and the independence of their homeland, which was attacked by Putin’s russia.

We do not understand how the leader of a country that symbolizes the free world cannot recognize this.

Our alarm was also heightened by the atmosphere in the Oval Office during this conversation, which reminded us of the interrogations we endured at the hands of the Security Services and the debates in Communist courts. Prosecutors and judges, acting on behalf of the all-powerful communist political police, would explain to us that they held all the power while we held none. They demanded that we cease our activities, arguing that thousands of innocent people suffered because of us. They stripped us of our freedoms and civil rights because we refused to cooperate with the government or express gratitude for our oppression. We are shocked that President Volodymyr Zelensky was treated in the same manner.

The history of the 20th century shows that whenever the United States sought to distance itself from democratic values and its European allies, it ultimately became a threat to itself. President Woodrow Wilson understood this when he decided in 1917 that the United States must join World War I. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt understood this when, after the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, he resolved that the war to defend America must be fought not only in the Pacific but also in Europe, in alliance with the nations under attack by the Third Reich.

We remember that without President Ronald Reagan and America’s financial commitment, the collapse of the Soviet empire would not have been possible. President Reagan recognized that millions of enslaved people suffered in Soviet russia and the countries it had subjugated, including thousands of political prisoners who paid for their defense of democratic values with their freedom. His greatness lay, among other things, in his unwavering decision to call the USSR an “Empire of Evil” and to fight it decisively. We won, and today, the statue of President Ronald Reagan stands in Warsaw, facing the U.S. Embassy.

Mr. President, material aid—military and financial—can never be equated with the blood shed in the name of Ukraine’s independence and the freedom of Europe and the entire free world. Human life is priceless; its value cannot be measured in money. Gratitude is due to those who sacrifice their blood and their freedom. This is self-evident to us, the people of Solidarity, former political prisoners of the communist regime under Soviet russia.

We call on the United States to uphold the guarantees made alongside Great Britain in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which established a direct obligation to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity in exchange for its relinquishment of nuclear weapons. These guarantees are unconditional—there is no mention of treating such assistance as an economic transaction.

Signed,

Lech Wałęsa, former political prisoner, President of Poland

I’m fairly sure Trump never knew anything about Walesa except that he was on Larry King in the 1980s. It wouldn’t have been of interest to him and he’s never read anything so he doesn’t care. But there are some right wingers left who do remember him and they have thrown their lot in with the Russia loving Putin. But then, Putin isn’t a commie, he’s an authoritarian oligarch and they apparently like them just fine.

I have no great love for H.R Master but he’s got Trump’s number — and Putin’s. Trump isn’t happy about it:

“H.R. MCMASTER IS A WEAK AND TOTALLY INEFFECTIVE LOSER!” Trump posted to his social media platform Truth Social late Sunday.

“We should spend less time worrying about Putin, and more time worrying about migrant rape gangs, drug lords, murderers, and people from mental institutions entering our Country—So that we don’t end up like Europe!” Trump wrote in a separate post.

In another post early Monday, Trump claimed that he was “the only president who gave none of Ukraine’s land to Putin’s Russia,” despite the fact that the deal cooked up by his administration thus far would fail to return Ukraine to its prewar borders.

He’s mad about a 60 Minutes interview with McMaster in which he said that Trump is being played by Putin. (Duh…)

“Vladimir Putin couldn’t be happier. Because what he sees is all of the pressure on Zelenskiy, all of the pressure on Ukraine, and no pressure on him.”

McMaster noted that Putin is a “master manipulator” with a deep understanding of how to work Trump to Russia’s advantage.

“He appeals to President Trump’s sense of aggrievement,” McMaster said. “And he’s been very successful at it because he’s a master manipulator and one of the best liars in the world.”

He may be the best liar in the world. But he isn’t the biggest. I think you know who that is.

What is going on here?

Republican officials are behaving like junior high bullies everywhere they go these days. They seem to have lost all restraint and are letting their ids run wild. And it’s not just one or two. They’re all doing it. WTF?

Police-state tactics

Lech Wałęsa knows from police state tactics (via The Daily Beast):

Legendary Polish anti-Communist Lech Wałęsa has slammed Donald Trump’s Oval Office attack on Ukraine’s Volodymr Zelensky, comparing it to Soviet secret police tactics.

Wałęsa, 81, signed a letter along with 38 other Poles who had been held captive by the Communist regime, telling Trump that the Friday spectacle filled them “with horror and distaste.”

The former Polish president previously revealed that he met Trump at Mar-a-Lago in 2010, and attached a photo of the two of them to the letter, which he posted on Facebook on Monday.

The letter was signed by Wałęsa and 38 former Polish political prisoners, who said “the atmosphere in the Oval Office” reminded them of “Security Service interrogations and from the courtrooms in communist courts.”

“Prosecutors and judges, commissioned by the omnipotent communist political police, also explained to us that they had all the cards in their hands, and we had none,” they write in the letter, referencing President Donald Trump’s comment that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not in a position to negotiate.

Expect more bullying and bluster at Trump’s address tonight to a joint session of Congress. I’m still hoping Democrats won’t drag poor, fired federal workers to sit as props in the chamber and endure the flood of Trumpish demagoguery. Do Democrats really expect the press will pay workers any attention during that reality show? They should instead hold a counter-programming event on the Capitol steps. Make the press split its attention. 

Plus, I’m a Democrat in Congress. Do I want to be caught dead in a joint session where Trump aligns with Putin’s Russia against Ukraine and our E.U. allies? After last week’s Oval Office shouting match, how confident am I that that won’t happen? 

* * * * *

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Chop Wood, Carry Water

There’s a target on your back, people

Last night notices went out here in NC-11 that Congressman Chuck Edwards (R) has planned a town hall for next week in his R+8 district. Good on him and good luck. The last one I attended did not go as he’d hoped. After the rowdy affairs going on around the country, he’s likely had time to set this up more as a lecture than a Q&A.

Nevertheless, Edwards will hear plenty about Musk and his DOGE post-teens treating the government — your government and mine — like a stolen car in a chop shop. Musk grew up in South Africa and barely knows how our government works. Oh, but his techies are going to go into computer software that fell out of general use before they were born and eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse — the free-energy device of conservative politics. Entire cities might be powered by waste fraud, and abuse if only it could be captured. But Big Energy doesn’t want you to know how. (I saw it in a YouTube ad.)

No Republican in Congress with any of that vaunted, private-sector business experience would let a 20-something, no matter how computer savvy, with no management, life, or business experience muck around in the software that serves their customers. But that’s what Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE are doing with government agencies that serve you. Republicans are hell at breaking things others built.

On my first congressional race, I expected to do no more than stuff envelopes or make phone calls. Then the campaign manager emerged from the back office and asked the room if anyone knew how to do a mail merge. The 20-somethings who grew up with computers didn’t budge. I raised my hand. Later, a similar question about manipulating a database. Same silence and my raised hand. I soon had my own desk and computer. The kids knew far more about computers and networks than I did, but they didn’t have 20 years’ experience operating business software. Neither do Musk’s DOGEes. The results you’ve read about and soon will feel.

You’ll recall how Texas Gov. Rick Perry ran for president on eliminating several government agencies, then in debate couldn’t name the one he later ended up running under Donald Trump: the Department of Energy. As a Texan, Perry likely thought Energy interfered with free-market wildcatters by regulating the oil and gas industry. It monitors fissile materials and the U.S. nuclear stockpile. When Musk’s young coders fired key Energy officials last month, then scrambled to rehire them, they demonstrated that they knew even less about what the agency does and how vital it is to national security.

Rex Huppke writes:

When unelected President Elon Musk isn’t busy firing federal workers and wildly overstating how much money he’s saving the government, the billionaire is finding time to falsely claim Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme.”

Why would he say that about a beloved program more than 70 million older Americans rely on as major source of income?

Probably because he’s too rich to have an inkling of an idea how vital Social Security is to regular Americans and resents the idea of wealthy people like himself having to pay into a government program that helps the non-billionaire class. Musk is nothing if not myopic.

He’s already announced plans to cut Social Security staff by 7,000 and close six of 10 regional offices. Former Social Security commissioner and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley warned last week:

“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”

Ahead of any interruption in benefits, “people should start saving now,” O’Malley said.

Edwards will hear volumes about that.

The Alliance for Retired Americans issued a statement in response to Musk:

Social Security is a social insurance program. Workers and employers pay in, money goes to the Social Security Trust Fund and is paid out when due. Social Security has a Board of Trustees and professional actuaries who report annually on the health of the
Trust Fund.

It’s solvent and the benefits are guaranteed (unlike the stock market or a private equity fund). In 89 years, Social Security has never missed a payment.

Now inexperienced DOGE coders are in its personnel files and its software finding millions of “dead” people. Start saving now.

Musk either doesn’t know what he’s doing or, worse, he does and it’s malicious (New York Times):

When DOGE first published its list of canceled contracts, there were about 1,100 examples.

The five largest were wrong.

In one case, DOGE listed a contract worth $8 million as actually being worth $8 billion. In another, it mistakenly counted the same $655 million contract three times. In yet another, it erroneously said that a huge contract at the Social Security Administration had been fully canceled, saving $232 million. In reality, only a small project within that contract had been canceled. Actual savings: $560,000.

Sen. Bernie Sanders votes for malicious. Huppke again:

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., posted on social media that “Social Security keeps 18 million seniors out of poverty every year. Trump and Musk are lying about it for one reason: so they can cut, privatize & dismantle it.”

There’s no reason to doubt that at this point. Musk’s sloppy axing of federal workers and contracts has demonstrated little concern or understanding of government work and how it might actually benefit Americans who don’t have the money to build rocket ships.

The constitutional crisis is here. Musk-Trump is engaged in a rolling coup. Trump is centralizing power in himself and usurping Congress’. He’s delegated control of the federal government to the kind of people who would sell you the air you breathe if they could control how it gets to your nose. And if you cannot afford to buy their air, well, you should have worked harder, planned better, and saved more.

Chuck Edwards will hear a lot about that next week … if he doesn’t cancel or switch venues at the last minute.

* * * * *

Have you fought the coup today?
Choose Democracy
Indivisible: A Guide to Democracy on the Brink
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Chop Wood, Carry Water

The details of what’s happening with the economy are frankly a bit beyond my ken so I was grateful to see this easy explainer from Josh Marshall today. (And you should subscribe if you can. His site is super valuable right now.)

The Atlanta Fed has again lowered its projection for first quarter 2025 GDP. It had been predicting growth of 2.3%. At the end of last week that was revised to 1.5% contraction and this morning they were again down-revised 2.8% contraction, or in other words 2.8% negative growth. To be clear these aren’t final or official stats. We’re only two-thirds of the way through the quarter. They are a prediction based on current indicators. But if it’s not clear that would mean a steep move into recession. And the numbers which presage that outcome are largely tied to general economic uncertainty and various collective economic decisions based on the expectations of a dramatic ramp up in U.S. tariffs and tariff retaliation.

Normally, you wouldn’t expect that an administration would be able to manage such a stark reversal six weeks into a presidency. The first three weeks of the quarter weren’t even under Trump. What’s critical however is that consumers and businesses have known about or expected big new tariffs since mid-November. And a lot of this is an import spending spree trying to get out ahead of the onset of tariffs. So in that sense, as an economic reality, Trump’s second administration really began almost four months ago. That’s more than enough time for this kind of economic impact. The Commerce Department also released data Friday showing a sharp drop off in consumer sentiment and purchasing. And that at least directionally matches private sector data from the end of last month.

With these predictions you get a sense of why Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says he’s going to change the way the US government calculates GDP.

I like to avoid interpreting macro-economic data. It’s just too far out of my knowledge area. With that said, I would say the best argument for skepticism about these numbers is that a significant amount of the prediction is based on what was basically an import spending spree trying to get ahead of Trump’s predicted tariffs. And we don’t have a lot of history going back upwards of a century with private sector anticipation of dramatic increases in protectionism. So perhaps the models are locked into a somewhat unrealistic way of interpreting this data. Or perhaps they’re technically correct – this is kind of what GDP is – but in a way that would be more transitory than we’d normally expect because it’s not rooted in deeper, organic problems in the economy. But that seems like a bit of a stretch. (Curious what others with more experience with these kinds of numbers think.) It’s also worth noting that there’s a lot more economic uncertainty, just in the last few weeks. And that’s likely not fully showing up in the economic data.

As Josh further points out, there are a lot of economic drivers — fires, floods, etc. But it’s the uncertainty, stupid. Nobody knows what’s happening and they don’t know if they can trust what the government is telling them about what is happening. That translates into “wait and see” at best which is basically a stall.

I noted earlier that the Dow plunged today on the news that Trump is rushing ahead with his 25% tariffs on on Mexico and Canada, so fasten your seatbelts, We have a whole lot of turbulence ahead of us.

I guess we knew this was happening but it’s still startling to see it confirmed. The US makes even more concessions to Russia as it “negotiates” a peace agreement:

The Trump administration has stopped financing new weapons sales to Ukraine and is considering freezing weapons shipments from U.S. stockpiles, moves that threaten Kyiv’s ability to fight at a critical time in its battle against Russian forces, current and former U.S. officials said.

The financing was halted in recent weeks amid the administration’s freeze on foreign aid. But the move to potentially shut down the main pipeline for arms transfers to Ukraine comes days after a contentious meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. The tense exchange Friday raised fears across Europe that the U.S. could be moving away from the wider Western alliance. 

Considering that and everything else, this certainly can’t be a surprise:

The United States is drawing up a plan to potentially give Russia sanctions relief as President Donald Trump seeks to restore ties with Moscow and stop the war in Ukraine, a U.S. official and another person familiar with the matter told Reuters.

So here’s where the “negotiations” stand:

Ukraine concessions

1. Russia will get all the territory its seized
2. No NATO membership ever
3. Zelensky will crawl on his belly and apologize to Trump in front of the whole world for being so mean to Vladimir Putin
4. Ukraine will not require any guarantee of security to back a cease fire or peace deal
5. The US will lift sanctions on Russia
6. The US will cease to send weapons to Ukraine

Russia concessions:

We’ll be lucky if the whole world doesn’t end up looking like the demolition of the Trump Taj Majal.

AOC has been telling immigrants what their rights are under the law. The crude “immigration czar” Tom Homan has referred her to the Department of Justice. Par for the course, I’m afraid. But that takes it to a new level.

First of all, Tom Homan can’t prosecute anyone. He’s just another one of Trump’s advisers who doesn’t have any such authority. But the idea that a US Senator would say this about another elected member of Congress for exercising free speech is a chilling development. I wish I could feel confident that this won’t go anywhere in Trump’s thoroughly corrupt DOJ.

AOC sent a letter to Pam Bondi on Friday:

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14) sent a letter to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi asking for clarification on whether the Department of Justice (DOJ) has bowed to political pressure from “Border Czar” Tom Homan and launched an investigation against her for educating her community about their constitutional rights.

On Feb. 12, 2025, the Office of Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez hosted a ‘Know Your Rights’ webinar, offering constituents practical guidance on how to interact with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The following day, Homan announced that he had requested the Deputy Attorney General initiate an investigation into Representative Ocasio-Cortez, warning she would be “in trouble now.” 

As of today, the DOJ has not been in contact with Ocasio-Cortez’s office.

“I write to request clarity on whether the Department of Justice (DOJ) has yielded to political pressure and attempts to weaponize the agency against elected officials whose speech they disagree with,” wrote Representative Ocasio-Cortez. “Over the past two weeks, “Border Czar” Tom Homan has gone on multiple forums threatening political prosecution against me, citing resources I distributed informing my constituents and the American public of their constitutional and legal rights.”

Later in the letter, Representative Ocasio-Cortez reminded the DOJ of its obligation to uphold the First Amendment: “Mr. Homan’s repeated attempts to use your agency to politically intimidate duly elected officials are a textbook threat to the right to free speech in the United States. Threatening criminal proceedings for exercising the First Amendment is itself a violation of the First Amendment.”

Indeed it is.

You can read her letter here.

(And we’re not talking about the greatest of all time)

Trump last night, while the world burns:

We're all going to die, aren't we? pic.twitter.com/ty8WWXV0Az

— Molly Ploofkins (@Mollyploofkins) March 3, 2025

Meanwhile:

Moody’s cutting Q1 GDP growth from 2.3% to 1.2% in a week is a pretty bad warning sign.Retail sales, manufacturing, home sales, and consumer confidence are all trending down. Trump’s unsteady leadership is taking a serious toll — the economy is losing steam.

— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm.bsky.social) 2025-03-03T15:45:39.153Z

Trump: "Tomorrow, tariffs — 25 percent on Canada and 25 percent on Mexico. And that'll start." pic.twitter.com/gSHwP5jCky

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 3, 2025

Note the Dow going down as he speaks.