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It’s Not Just Us

The fascist threat is global. France stopped them yesterday. Will we?

In the first round of the French snap elections called by President Emmanuel Macron last month, the far right came in first, scaring les pantalons off of everyone in Europe. Not since the Vichy government in the 1940s had France been led by the authoritarian far right. But it looked very possible, especially considering the right wing surge in the European Union elections in the country, which precipitated Macron’s call for elections in the first place. As recently as three days ago, polls showed that the second round would likely lead to such an outcome.

But a funny thing happened on the way to that run-off. The parties of the left formed a National Popular Front party and they joined with the center to block the right. Many of the candidates in each district had to make the hard choice to leave the race so that the stronger member of the opposition could defeat the right.

This incumbent, had to take that gut check and she dropped out saying, “defeats happen, but you can never recover from dishonor.”

It worked and a major upset happened yesterday as the Popular Front and Macron’s centrist party defied the polls coming in first and second, respectively, with the far right National Rally coming in third. It was a strong repudiation of the authoritarian right, defying all predictions going into the election on Sunday. The moment the announcement was made, great throngs in the streets were cheering:

This sweep by the left and center came on the heels of a historic victory by labor in the UK last week, turning out the Tories after 14 years in the majority. That result wasn’t much of a surprise but the scope of it was impressive and the message was clear. With the spectre of far right movements across Europe, the British people said no. Last fall Poland had a similar electoral result. Even Iran elected a reformist president last week over a hard-liner, although the Ayatollah  Khamenei still reigns supreme.

All of these elections, including the aforementioned European Union vote last month which showed growth of the far right in Germany and France, ended up with mixed results for governance. Each country is different and has a unique set of issues and the coalitions that were formed are not necessarily ideologically coherent. But the one thing they all have in common is a desire by a majority of voters to repudiate the far right.

As we recently witnessed in the big D-Day celebrations in June, the memory of World War II is much more vivid in Europe than it is for most Americans. I would imagine that the new rise of fascism is something they feel most acutely as well. Certainly, I suspect the history of Nazism is something they are more aware of. That was made clear by the left’s decision in France to form a coalition named after the antifascist Popular Front in 1936. Instead of allowing the right to exploit divisions on the left and co-opt the center as the Nazis did in Germany,despite being in the minority, they put aside their differences and unified to stand against them.

It was around eight years ago at this time that Americans were watching the UK make a momentous decision, driven by xenophobia and an ascendant right, to leave the European Union, about which they now have major regrets and which has failed to deliver on virtually all of its promises. Here in the U.S. we were also in the midst of one of the weirdest presidential campaigns in our history with the businessman and demagogue Donald Trump having secured the Republican nomination running a populist, anti-immigrant campaign. Trump didn’t even know what Brexit was when he was first asked about it, but he was riding the same wave and a few months later he won as well.

Eight years later there’s still plenty of white, rural rage and generalized discontent in Europe and the U.S. But authoritarian right wing politics can’t seem to gain a majority and unless it’s able to exploit divisions among the opposition or a flaw in the system like the electoral college in the U.S. they can’t successfully seize power. I don’t know if the U.S. will follow the U.K. this time but it’s clear that we’re all in the same boat.

We’re in the midst of a crisis right now with the intense scrutiny of 81 year old President Joe Biden and the doubts about his ability to successfully win the re-match against the 78 year old Donald Trump. As of this moment we have no idea if he will even be in the race a week from now. It’s dominated the news cycle for the past 10 days but as my colleague Amanda Marcotte pointed out, something else has suddenly gained the attention of the public despite all the noise about Biden’s age: the MAGA Manifesto, Project 2025.

It took people outside of the regular news media to make that happen. HBO’s John Oliver did a program on it and the actress Taraji P Henson hosting the BET Awards last week called it out — and they both went viral:

People are becoming alarmed and the Republicans know it which is why Donald Trump tried to distance himself from it. I don’t think anyone believes that he’s read any of the 900 pages of MAGA Kampf but he is the leader of the movement that’s behind it and everyone in the country knows it. Like the neo-fascist movements it is a minority faction and it’s up to the people to vote in large enough numbers to ensure that he cannot win again through the electoral college loophole (something which had only happened once before the year 2000.)

All of this is to say that for all the sturm und drang over Biden’s age and even Trump massive character and intellectual flaws, this election is really about something bigger than both of them. There is a potent far right movement that’s threatening democratic government all over the world and the election is about repelling this authoritarian surge once again. France managed to do it this weekend by forming a popular front and setting their differences and their competing interests aside. America needs to do the same.

Salon

Hell No, Joe Won’t Go

Joe Biden, just-a wrote them a letter

President Biden in a letter to Democratic colleagues this morning writes that he is not blind to concerns people have expressed about his stamina since the first presidential debate.

But, “We had a Democratic nomination process and the voters have spoken clearly and decisively. I received over 14 million votes, 87% ofthe votes cast across the entire nominating process. I have nearly 3,900 delegates, making me the presumptive nominee of our party by a wide margin.” He’s not going anywhere.

After Republican Donald Trump tried to throw out the 2020 election, Biden alludes, throwing out the votes of those primary voters is a bad look for Democrats.

“The voters – and the voters alone – decide the nominee ofthe Democratic Party. How can we stand for democracy in our nation if we ignore it in our own party? I cannot do that. I will not do that.” Despite what the press, pundits, big donors, and groups of individuals may insist.

“The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end,” Biden insists.

But it won’t end. Not yet. These are Democrats we’re talking about.

If Biden wants to restore party critics’ confidence, he’d best start landing political haymakers on Donald Trump’s glass jaw. It’s what his voters want to see when they say, “We need Dark Brandon back.”

And start acting more like winners than whiners, for heaven’s sake. The next four months are more about the stakes than the candidates.

The GOP’s candidate for governor in my state declared last week that “some folks need killing.” Act like he means it because he does. Tie that around Donald “shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue” Trump’s neck until his nose bleeds.

If this election is a fight to save the country, start acting like it and don’t depend on the campaign to throw all the punches. That’s what “Repost” is for on FKA Twitter, Threads, Mastodon, Bluesky. Dominate the battle space. Knock some doors, make some calls. Make sure everyone you know knows that Project 2025 means to END AMERICA. Yes, they mean it.

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Your Government On Project 2025

Hurricane Beryl slams into Texas

Donald Trump shows off official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration map he altered with a Sharpie to include Alabama in Hurricane Dorian’s trajectory (2019).

The Washington Post reports this morning, “Hurricane Beryl is approaching western parts of Houston after making landfall near Matagorda, Tex., around 4 a.m. Monday, the National Hurricane Center said.” We’ll come back to that.

Friends who worry that the Democrats’ August convention in Chicago will be a replay of 1968 remember the violent clashes in the streets between Vietnam War protesters and Chicago Police. Things did not go smoothly inside the convention hall either. Lost in their furrowed brows is how the 1968 election turned out after President Johnson bowed out of the presidential race at the end of March that year. Democrats lost. In a landslide.

Take a deep breath and think carefully.

The very public navel-gazing among Democrats overJoe Biden’s capacity for the last ten days has overshadowed the Biden comms team’s flooding social media with attacks on Donald Trump’s Project 2025 plans. The Heritage Foundation-led Project 2025 means to lobotomize government agencies by replacing mission-driven, career civil servants with far-right ideologues loyal to Dear Leader. Remember how well that worked during the Iraq occupation?

Stewards of Social Security, Medicare, and Veterans Administration benefits in a second Trump administration, people charged with everything from managing the nation’s nuclear arsenal to delivering accurate crop and — this is timely — hurricane forecasts will be Trump-bots working from a Christian nationalist playbook prepared by Trump loyalists.

I don’t know what Biden is going to do in the next week or so. But I hope Democrats will put out the fires in their hair before asking him to do his LBJ imitation.

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FFS. It’s A Virus

(Or maybe a bot…)

It’s just impossible for these people to believe that their fetid ideas are not what people want. I get that they don’t care but they can’t win democratically. I worry about what comes nest once they get that through their heads.

Let’s hope the center left of the US has enough sense to do the same. I wish I was more sure that they do.

Project 2025?

Q: Is Project 2025 ideological lunacy?

Trump VP contender Marco Rubio: No. I think it’s center-right

It’s good to know what’s considered “center right” these days:

By the way:

The three top guys on the Project 2025 website are all former Trump admin staffers:Paul Dans (chief of staff at Trump OPM)

Spencer Chretien (special assistant to Trump)

Troup Hemenway (Trump OPP) 

Of the folks assigned to write or co-write policy chapters, most are Trump admin veterans. These include: 

Russ Vought (Trump OMB, head of GOP platform committee ’24)

Christopher Miller (Acting Trump SecDef on J6)

Ken Cuccinelli (Trump DHS)

Ben Carson (Trump HUD)

Roger Severino (Trump HHS)

William Perry Pendley (Trump BLM)

Adam Candeub (Trump Commerce) 

Brendan Carr (Trump appointee to the FCC)

Thomas Gilman (Trump admin)

Robert Bowes (Trump HUD, Trump campaign)

Peter Navarro (Trump WH NTC; federal prison for Trump)

If He Goes …

This is the way to do it

James Fallows, former presidential speechwriter, writes a speech for Joe Biden:

Address to the Nation

President Joe Biden

July 2024

My fellow Americans:

            I’d like to talk with you tonight about the faith that connects nearly all of us who share the blessing of calling ourselves Americans.

            That is a faith in the country’s past and a belief in its future. And a willingness, in the here and now, to do what we can—to fulfill our duty—to make our country stronger, prouder, fairer, greater.

            More open to opportunity. More equal under the law. More faithful to the values to which so many generations of Americans have pledged “our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor,” as our founders put it nearly 250 years ago in the Declaration of Independence.

            Through my long life I’ve been conscious of my own good fortune, in having ancestors who came here from Ireland to make a new start. Like so many of us I’ve worked toward a world that can be brighter for our children, and their children, and the generations to come.

            The three great commitments of my life have been to family, faith, and country. Every day, in every moment of my public life—through the half-century since I first was elected to the US Senate, through the eight years in which I served as vice president, and most of all in these past four years when I’ve had the honor and responsibility of service as your president—I have thought about what I owed my family and my faith, but always and above all what I owed my country.

            I am immensely proud of what we have achieved together in these past four years. We, together, as Americans: The millions who voted for me. The millions who voted for my opponent. The millions who didn’t vote at all, or couldn’t. All of us, who make up the national family, and the world community that depends on us. America at its finest has never been completed but has always been moving forward. In our economy, in our place in the world, in our attention to long-neglected problems, we have a long way to go but have been moving ahead.

            This progress must continue. The risks of moving backward are too great. And—to be blunt—the dangers at the moment are too grave, if control of America’s public institutions and its immense power, if its reputation abroad and its wellbeing at home, should fall back into the hands of someone whose loyalty extends only to himself.

            Knowing these stakes, I have thought carefully and clearly about the duty history asks of me at this crucial time—this ‘inflection point,’ as I often say. The duty that surmounts all others is making sure that leadership of the world’s greatest democracy remains with those who believe in democracy itself. We must guarantee that America is led by people who believe in America. Our nation has never had an election-denier and convicted felon in charge of its government. Nor one who disparages our military and courts and the institutions that keep us strong. Who preaches division and promises retribution. It cannot risk doing so now.

            In recent weeks I have listened hard to critics, and supporters. I have talked with my family and staff and tried to look honestly at myself. I believe the record shows that I and my team were the right people, at the right time, for the challenges of the past four years. We did our duty, and I believe historians will say that we met the moment well.

            But I have come to realize that I can now best fulfill my duty in the fight for American values by passing the torch. I have always done my best, in my time. Now it is time for outstanding figures from our next generations—talented, idealistic, already highly experienced—to take their leading roles.

            We need the strongest candidates through the all-important next four months until the election. We need the most-qualified prospects for continued progress in the four years after that. We need to ensure that the next leaders of our country will be ones who appeal to the best in our national spirit, not pander to the worst.

            In this moment, my duty to the country and to history is to do everything I can to help such leaders prevail. Therefore I am tonight sharing with you my conclusion that I should no longer be a candidate in the coming election. I will remain on duty through every moment of my first term as your president. But I do not seek re-election to a second.

            This is a difficult and personally painful decision, for someone who has spent so much of his life in public office. But my family, my faith, and my belief in my country make me sure it is the right one. My commitment to this new course is total. I hope that all who have been so generous in their faith and support for me, especially my friends and allies in my own party, will understand. I hope they will wholeheartedly follow my lead.

            It is beyond question that my opponent should have made a similar decision long ago—or responsible members of his party should have made it for him. His ethical and temperamental failings are obvious. His contempt for our nation’s ideals is even more so. The threat he represents to our nation’s future and the free world’s values is enormous.

            But—despite the Supreme Court’s latest reckless ruling on presidential power—there is nothing I can do directly, or ethically, to stop him. All I can do is use every fiber of my being to see that a free electorate chooses a different path. 

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           If the decision were solely up to me, I would naturally start with Vice President Harris, who has entirely fulfilled my belief that she was the right one to stand at my side, and next in line, on major decisions for our nation. She has my absolute trust, gratitude, respect, and support.

            But I know that this next decision cannot be solely up to me. A democratic system requires democratic decisions, above all from the Democratic party. I am prepared to do all in my power to help Americans of my political party, and all parties, to come together in enthusiastic support of its next candidate.

            I owe this great country everything. I will continue to give it my very best. I do so this evening in committing to join you, my fellow Americans, next year in what the great Justice Louis Brandeis once called “the most important political office, that of private citizen.” And to using every moment between now and then to ensure that our next leaders are ones truest to our nation’s ideals.

            May God bless you all. And may God protect our troops and continue to guide our nation toward the light.

If he gives it, I just hope he does it on the night of Trump’s nomination 10 days from now.

I See France

Taniel at Bolts with a short primer on today’s runoff in France.

France is holding its parliamentary elections today.

Clear stakes: Will far-right end up governing France?

And if it fails, what possible coalition will end up governing given fragmentation?

You can follow me for results starting at 2pm ET; but a quick context 🧵: 

Let’s start with: In France, president runs the show… as long as their party controls the Assembly. If presidential party loses that control, the president has few domestic powers—no veto, for instance. This isn’t a US-style split government. That’s why stakes today so high. 

Macron called these just 4 weeks ago. Decision shocked his own allies.

He already lost his gamble: His bloc is sure to lose seats & its tentative control on Assembly. (He reportedly expected Left would fail to unite, & be knocked out of R1 most places; that didn’t happen.) 

4 main blocs that you’ll hear about today:

—“Left bloc”, New Popular Front: a multiparty alliance rebuilt in just a few days
—Macron’s bloc
—Far-right bloc: Le Pen’s party, RN, and new allies
—LR: the traditional conservative parties, that have fallen low but may still matter 

France has a two-round runoff system. The first round was last week; it decides what candidates move on to the runoff… which gets complicated.

I broke it down in this quick explainer the other day: 
How Voting Works in the U.K. and France: Your Questions AnsweredOn the eve of the French and British elections, Bolts responds to 10 reader questions on how they differ from the U.S. on voter registration, disenfranchisement, proxy voting, and more.https://boltsmag.org/how-voting-works-france-united-kingdom-your-questions-answered/

Due to high turnout last week, 311 districts out of 577 ended up with 3-way runoffs: That was expected to help the RN, allowing them to win with < 50% in many places.

But this week was a mad scramble. In 200+ districts, candidates in 3rd place dropped out to block the RN. 

That was reemergence of a “republican front” between parties, against far-right.

That front has weakened a lot in recent years. Really, the key question today is how well it works among voters—Left voters where Left is absent, Macronists voters where Macronists are absent, etc. 

Reporting this week suggested that Macron resisted the emergence of a full ‘republican front,’ & was dragged by it by others in his party—his PM, and some candidates. I won’t go more into this in this thread, but a little more here:

If the ‘republican front’ works well enough to deny the RN a majority, the question of who actually governs will be very confusing. France just hasn’t had a parliament as fragmented as it may have under this current regime.

Next week may be as interesting as today! 

Stay tuned. The vote closes shortly. I’ll update here as the exit polls come in.

Update: whew

Punch Harder

Don’t sit there and take it

He knows what’s what. Save this nation.

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Not So Fast

Trump “is somebody who is trying to destroy our country”

Democrats need to look themselves in the mirror when former Republicans from the Lincoln Project are standing behind Joe Biden more steadfastly than they are. We need to look beyond the players to the broader stakes in this election and make clear to voters what they are.

“I will take an old man with a cold over a narcissitic sociopath with a dictator kink any day,” said Ryan Wiggins, the group’s chief of staff. “We have got the Democratic nominee’s back because Trump cannot be president of this country ever again.”

“Our answer is to go out and find the bad guys and punch them in the face,” insists Rick Wilson. “You can never take your foot off the gas in attacking Donald Trump.”

When you’ve cut your opponent over the eye, work the eye!

“Only one of the two main presidential candidates poses an existential threat to democracy,” said MSNBC’s Ali Velshi Saturday. So take a deep breath and hold that thought.

Reports of Joe Biden’s political death may be greatly exaggerated (The Hill):

President Biden, in the wake of a poor debate performance and growing calls for him to step aside, has narrowed Trump’s lead in the key swing states, according to a new survey.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, published Saturday, showed Biden leading Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, the incumbent is now within the margin of error, per the survey.

Overall, the poll found that Trump is leading Biden by only 2 percentage points across the seven states — 47 percent to 45 percent. This is the closest Biden has been to overtaking Trump since Bloomberg started tracking the seven states last October. 

The poll also showed Biden narrowed the gap with independent voters, with Trump and Biden being tied at 40 percent. In a previous poll, the former president led the incumbent 44 percent to 36 percent. 

The widest gap between the presumptive party nominees came from the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Biden’s home turf. The survey shows Trump received 51 percent of support from Keystone State voters, compared to Biden’s 44 percent.

The poll was of registered voters. Now give me likely voters, please.

Morning Consult reports that a majority of swing state voters believe Biden should end his campaign, yet hold on:

While the first 2024 presidential debate appeared to alarm some Democratic leaders and created an opening for the press to ditch its politeness about discussing Biden’s cognitive abilities, our surveys of swing-state surveys for Bloomberg News — and our national-level data — show the matter has done little to change the underlying dynamics of the contest. 

While Biden is still underperforming Trump, the newfound vocal alarm from those in his party has been met by a more modest growth in concern among the electorate, suggesting the age matter was already baked into many voters’ calculus; the main difference now is voters’ renewed emphasis on each candidate’s vice presidential selections as the race moves forward.

All the “he’s too old” surveys cloud what may be a more important factor in this campaign. Biden’s ability to serve in the presidency for another four years is not what’s at stake. Worrying about that is, as Stuart Stevens told MSNBC, like worrying about your cholesterol in the middle of a knife fight.

The only thing that matters going forward to November is Democrats winning and keeping the country and the world out of the hands of Donald Trump and people like those below, whether they march in fascist garb or wear MAGA hats or tailored suits.

Heather Cox Richardson reminds Christiane Amanpour what happened the last time a Democratic president bowed out in the middle of a race. It was 1968. Democrats lost.

Richardson believes as I do that the focus on Biden is misguided. “I don’t care if we elect Biden or Harris, or anybody else. I care that we recognize running currently against that ticket is somebody who is trying to destroy our country.”

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