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GOP Really Thinks Trump’s Conviction Will Help Them Win

Published by digby on June 4, 2024

If it does, this country is lost

It’s one thing if the conviction doesn’t change any votes. The two bases are pretty locked in on Trump and nothing seems to shake the right wing from their love and worship of their Dear Leader. But if it actually moves votes in his favor, we have bigger problems.

These red state Senate candidates are obviously betting that it will help them, which is almost as bad:

Republican Senate candidates released ads Monday savaging Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, the chamber’s two most vulnerable Democrats this cycle. And top GOP officials are even going after former Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan who represents the GOP’s best shot at winning a deep-blue Senate seat after he issued a statement calling for respect for the legal process rather than reflexive support for the former president.

The conviction hasn’t meaningfully yet made its way into Senate races in purple states such as Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and elsewhere, but the contests in Montana, Ohio and Maryland represent marquee opportunities for Republicans to eat away at Democrats’ Senate majority.

Businessman Tim Sheehy, Tester’s opponent, fired the first shot Monday on the issue, releasing an ad dubbing the prosecution of Trump “lawfare” led by President Joe Biden and a radical left that wants to “throw Trump in jail.”

“And Jon Tester is standing right by their side,” a narrator says before highlighting a past clip of Tester on MSNBC saying someone needs “to go back and punch [Trump] in the face” and highlighting Tester’s vote to convict Trump in each of his impeachment trials.

Bernie Moreno, the Republican businessman challenging Brown, followed up with a digital ad of his own that features a past video of Brown saying that “Biden’s politics now are not much different from mine.”

“It doesn’t matter the issue, Sherrod Brown stands with Biden, even as he turns the judicial system into a weapon to interfere in the presidential election,” a narrator says in the video. “Sen. Sherrod Brown stands by, refusing to condemn Biden’s politically motivated witch hunt.”

I have to wonder if these guys aren’t suffering a little bit of Fox news brain rot.

Hogan, on the other hand, may have made the smarter move. He’s running in a blue state and he needs Democratic votes. Trump’s campaign telling him that his candidacy is dead, may actually help him. (On the other hand, he’s going to need every last Republican to vote for him and there are plenty of MAGA types in rural Maryland who may just decide not to vote for him because he rejected Dear Leader.)

This may end up being a non-issue by the time the election rolls around. These are very tumultuous times. But I just have to hope that even voters in red states aren’t persuaded that being a convicted felon is Trump’s best selling point.

Everybody Knows Exactly What He Means

Published by digby on June 4, 2024

Aaron Blake at the Washington Post took a look at some of Trump’s threats of violence:

In his first interview since being convicted on 34 felony counts in Manhattan, Trump this past weekend addressed the possibility of being imprisoned or put under house arrest by saying, “I’m not sure the public would stand for it.”

“I think it would be tough for the public to take,” Trump told Fox News. “You know, at a certain point, there’s a breaking point.”

This is vintage Trump. He’s not explicitly advocating unrest. He’s not even explicitly mentioning unrest in this case. But he is suggestively pointing to something very bad around the corner if he doesn’t get what he wants.

He’s good at that. And it suggests that he knows exactly what he’s doing. Consciousness of guilt. It’s just been demonstrated with his daft comment about never saying “lock her up.” He was usually cautious about not personally saying it, just smiling and nodding as his cult chanted it at his rallies. Being a criminal himself he knew that it could come back to haunt him. Consciousness of guilt. But every once in a while he slipped up and said it himself because he is essentially an undisciplined manchild.

Anyway, here’s a short list of his threats:

March 2016 (warning about being denied the Republican nomination)

“I think it would be — I think you’d have riots. … I think you would have problems like you’ve never seen before. I think bad things would happen, I really do. I believe that. I wouldn’t lead it, but I think bad things would happen.”

August 2016 (warning about Hillary Clinton picking judges)

“If she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don’t know.”

March 2019

“I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump. I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad.”

May 2020

Amid racial justice protests, tweets a video featuring a supporter saying, “The only good Democrat is a dead Democrat” (the supporter clarified he wasn’t being literal). A day later, tweets, “When the looting starts, the shooting starts.”

September 2020 (when challenged to condemn white supremacists and militia groups threatening violence)

“Proud Boys, stand back and stand by. But I’ll tell you what: Somebody has to do something about antifa and the left.” (The Proud Boys later led the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, with several being convicted of seditious conspiracy.)

November 2020 (responding to an adverse ruling from the Pennsylvania Supreme Court)

“The Supreme Court decision on voting in Pennsylvania is a VERY dangerous one. It will allow rampant and unchecked cheating and will undermine our entire systems of laws. It will also induce violence in the streets. Something must be done!”

August 2022 (after the search of Mar-a-Lago)

“People are so angry at what is taking place. Whatever we can do to help because the temperature has to be brought down in the country. If it isn’t, terrible things are going to happen.” (Even Fox News’s conservative hosts were skeptical that Trump was in fact interested in taking down the temperature.)

February 2023 (amid talk of disqualifying Trump from holding office)

Reposts a supporter who warns that advocates of disqualification “will have to figure out how to fight 80,000,000 + it’s not going to happen again. People my age and old[er] will physically fight for him this time. … They got my 6 and we Are Locked and LOADED.”

March 2023 (before his Manhattan indictment)

“What kind of person can charge another person … with a Crime, when it is known by all that NO Crime has been committed, & also known that potential death & destruction in such a false charge could be catastrophic for our Country?”

Trump added, “OUR COUNTRY IS BEING DESTROYED, AS THEY TELL US TO BE PEACEFUL!”

January 2024

“I think they feel [prosecuting Trump] is the way they’re going to try and win, and that’s not the way it goes. It’ll be bedlam in the country. It’s a very bad thing. It’s a very bad precedent. As we said, it’s the opening of a Pandora’s box.” (A Washington Post reporter asked Trump as he was walking away if he would tell his supporters not to get violent. Trump ignored the question.)

April 2024 (on whether there will be violence if he loses)

“I don’t think we’re going to have that; I think we’re going to win. And if we don’t win, you know, it depends. It always depends on the fairness of an election.”

Rachel Maddow pointed out that nothing has happened around his legal troubles yet. He only got a few cranks and the Red Tie Brigade to show up for his New York criminal trial. But January 6th did happen and there have been many death threats from lone wolves. It won’t take a huge riot like J6 — it will only take one Tim McVeigh.

Ain’t She Sweet?

Published by digby on June 4, 2024

Here’s a sample of her “questioning.”

She said that Dr. Fauci should be tried for crimes against humanity because of social distancing and mask wearing.

I just can’t…

Update: Here’s another one

I guess this is their way of distracting their brainwashed followers from the fact that their Dear Leader is a convicted felon who was the guy in charge during the pandemic? They’re getting loonier by the day.

They’ve Got A Name, And They’ve Got A Number

Published by Tom Sullivan on June 4, 2024

You’ve got a job to do

Donald Trump’s legal problems are just beginning, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow suggested on her Monday show. He is an unindicted co-conspirator in ongoing state investigations into the 2020 fake electors schemes in Arizona and Michigan.

Detroit News:

An investigator for Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel’s office described Friday the probe into a certificate that falsely claimed Donald Trump won the state’s 2020 presidential election as “open and active.”

Howard Shock, an agent of Nessel’s office, also said he had outstanding subpoenas or search warrants for information as part of the ongoing investigation. For the second time in two months, Shock said Trump, the former president and presumptive GOP nominee this year, was considered an unindicted co-conspirator, but as of now, there wasn’t enough evidence to recommend charges against him.

“He’s part of the investigation, but he hasn’t been charged with a crime yet,” Shock said of Trump.

Yet.

Arizona, Georgia, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have also launched fake Trump electors investigations. Prosecutors in four have pursued criminal penalties.

In a hint at coming attractions, the Michigan State Police officer who turned away the Michigan fake electors from the state capitol door on December 14, 2020 told investigators he was questioned about the electors scheme on Thursday by the FBI and two prosecutors from Washington, D.C.

That detail suggests additional federal charges could be coming, and coming for Trump.

Let’s talk about what that means for the November elections.

Ahead of Maddow’s show, Amy Walter of Cook Political Report spoke with Jen Psaki about “double haters.” Dissatisfied with both Joe Biden and Donald Trump as presidential candidates, between 16 and 25 percent of eligible voters fall into that category, slightly more than in 2016, Walters said. And we know how that worked out.

Largely younger and more diverse, these voters are not leaning toward Trump, but may see no reason to vote for Biden either. Walter’s data shows that abortion is a critical issue for them, but so is the cost of living. Daily expenses and housing. Cook’s polling shows they believe Biden can do something about it but has not done enough, and they believe Trump can do better. Jobs and infrastructure improvements under Biden are simply not top of mind.

Two-thirds of double haters already believe Trump should end his campaign. But regarding federal involvement in the fake electors scheme, if double haters want to see Trump held accountable in federal courts, staying home is self-harm. Voting for Trump or staying home or skipping the presidential line on the fall ballot is a decision to let Trump off scot-free for trying to steal their votes in the 2020 election. A vote for Biden is a vote for accountability.

Use your leverage, even Trump advises.

More than simply turning the Department of Justice against his enemies, a Trump win means he will close all federal investigations into himself, even pardon himself. Trump and the Project 2025 team will turn the U.S. into a democracy more phony than Hungary’s. Some double haters may be too jaded to care. But they might care about seeing Trump pay for his crimes against them. Against you.

Now, what are you going to do about it?

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Buck The F#&k Up

Published by Tom Sullivan on June 4, 2024

Elections are about perceptions

“Part of the psychology of the American voter is that they want, while there’s a dog fight going on, to see how much fight is in the dog,” says former Republican campaign adviser Rick Wilson.

I saw that Politico article quoting anonymous Democratic “operatives” and “advisors” in “full-blown freakout” over Joe Biden and groaned. Just groaned. What were they thinking? Not Politico, the unnamed Democratic sources.

How many times have I cited … well, how many times did Sylvester Stallone redeploy his successful formula for Rocky? Six times, just in the original franchise. Repetition is important.

From Will Democrats Fight?

I’ve noted before: How many Rocky movies did Stallone make? And they’re all the same movie. So why do people keep going? Because so many Americans themselves feel like underdogs. We want to root for the little guy with heart. Facing insurmountable odds. Risking it all. We want to feel the thrill up our spines and in the tops of our heads when Bill Conti’s trumpet fanfare introduces the training sequence. We want to hear that. Wait for it. Cheer for it. Pay for it. Over and over and over.

My college roommate started eating raw eggs before going for his morning runs, fergawdsakes.

Hand-wringers need not apply

My friend Anat Shenker-Osorio gave a workshop for Democrats over the weekend in Greensboro. Among other things she told us, Americans share a basic desire for safety.

I do. Who would you rather have watching your back, lackadaisical voter? Dick Durbin or Rocky Balboa? Hell, MAGA grafts Trump’s head onto Rocky’s body. No, don’t start doing that with Biden, but….

“You better start thinking of Joe Biden as 12 ft. tall, covered in steel, brilliant, with a 12-inch dick. Stop acting like he’s a feeble old man,” Wilson shouts at Democrats. “Toughen the fuck up!”

The Amplify project (one of Anat’s collaborative efforts) is already promoting that message with a set of free-to-share, open-source videos tested “to break through the noise and mobilize voters in our base to repeat our persuasive message.”

“The left is losing the fight against fascism politically,” Marcy Wheeler (emptywheel) fumed last week. “That’s not [Merrick] Garland’s fight. It’s yours.”

Defeating fascism is not someone else’s job. Sadly, many among the Democrats’ gerontocracy are not up to that job. But if you’re cocky enough to think you are, then you need to get into the fight.

“The Republican Party says the criminals are the heroes,” MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow said Monday night. Or is it you?

Cue “Gonna Fly Now.”

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For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

The Inside Media Game

Published by digby on June 3, 2024

Scott Jennings and other regular CNN Trump supporters make it almost impossible to watch their “panels.” It’s not that I can’t sit through arguments between conservatives and liberals on TV. There’s nothing new about that. But the Trump henchmen are such liars and rarely get any fact checking in real time and it distorts the truth in ways that are very destructive.

George Conway called Jennings out in real time and it was glorious:

Conway discussed this on Greg Sargent’s podcast and it’s excellent:

The other day on CNN, prominent Never Trump lawyer George Conway did something you rarely see in Washington. He dressed down a GOP commentator for lying his ass off about Donald Trump—and then, right on the air, he asked why CNN was paying this Republican to spread lies on Trump’s behalf. We think this episode illustrates a deep problem with the media’s handling of pro-Trump propaganda. So we chatted with Conway about why he unloaded—and in the process, he revealed some interesting things about the network. Listen to this episode here.

It’s well worth your time. Conway doesn’t name names but he does say that he’s heard from CNN employees that there is a lot of concern about their coverage of the trial. It truly was terrible. He goes into some detail and it’s fascinating.

At one point, Conway called Trump a narcissistic psychopath just before the CNN Townhall and was blackballed by “camp Mar-a-Lago.”

What Witness Tampering?

Published by digby on June 3, 2024

We’ve all seen the threats and the pardon dangling Trump has done from the moment he became president. He even asked the director of the FBI to go easy on his buddy Michael Flynn and then fired him when he refused to do it. The corruption is boundless.

And now we find out he’s literally paying people off as well. Pro Publica has a big expose today showing that some of the witnesses in the criminal cases against him have been given fancy jobs, cash bonuses, board seats, shares in his companies and plum jobs for family members often at very important times in the legal process. And the dollar amounts are impressive.

Recall the recent story of Brian Butler, the Mar-a-Lago employee who witnessed the handling of those bankers boxes full of classified document and came forward to say that he was offered a new job with a big raise. Cassidy Hutchinson was offered a job and they sent her a lawyer paid by the campaign. This is how they operate.

According to the experts they interviewed, cases like this are very difficult to prove. But prosecutors will certainly use the information to question these witnesses credibility if Trump is ever brought to trial on these charges.

Day Of Reckoning?

Published by digby on June 3, 2024

I’m sure they would say that they are only speaking of election day. But they actually mean so much more and we know it. It is a direct threat to Biden.

Trump is ginning up his rabid cult to take up violence if he loses, there’s no doubt about that. And if he wins, he will exact retribution by using the Department of Justice. In fact, he will do exactly what he falsely claims Joe Biden is doing.

Four Years Ago Today

Published by digby on June 3, 2024

Hey kids…

By the way, Nate Cohn, DC’s polling god, put this little tid bit out this morning:

While Mr. Trump has survived many controversies, he has also suffered a political penalty for his conduct. He did lose re-election, after all. And this cycle, there is one reason to wonder whether Mr. Trump might now be more vulnerable: He depends on the support of many young and nonwhite voters who haven’t voted for him in the past, and who might not prove as loyal as those who have stood by his side from the start.

Huh. You’d think this odd fact would be more salient in the coverage but I see little evidence that many in the mainstream media have noticed. But maybe that’s a good thing.

Anyway:

Mr. Trump doesn’t just count on the support of Republicans and MAGA loyalists in the conservative information ecosystem. His strength in the polls increasingly depends on surprising strength among voters from traditionally Democratic constituencies, like young, nonwhite and irregular voters. Many of these voters are registered as Democrats, back Democrats in races for U.S. Senate and may have even backed Mr. Biden in the last election. This is not Mr. Trump’s core of proven support. This is a group of voters whose loyalty hasn’t yet been established — let alone tested.

The Times/Siena and Marquette Law polls both suggest that these young and nonwhite voters might be especially prone to revert to their traditional partisan leanings in the event of a conviction, with Mr. Biden getting back to a far more typical lead among young and nonwhite voters. In fact, almost all of the unusual demographic patterns among young, nonwhite and irregular voters disappear when voters are asked how they would vote if Mr. Trump were convicted.

In the Times/Siena poll, 21 percent of Mr. Trump’s young supporters said they’d back Mr. Biden if there were a conviction. In comparison, only 2 percent of 65-and-older Trump supporters said the same. Similarly, 27 percent of Black voters who backed Mr. Trump flipped to Mr. Biden, compared with just 5 percent of white respondents.

Right.

Four years ago today, Trump was trying to get the national guard to shoot protesters who were out in the streets over the killing of George Floyd. Maybe it would be worth reminding some of these soft Trump supporters about that. You can be sure that next time he’ll actually do it.