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She’s Got This

Published by digby on November 4, 2024

This from Dan Pfeiffer:

Looking at the fundamentals, we shouldn’t even be in this race. This is a brutal political environment. Three-quarters of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. Two-thirds are unhappy about the economy. The incumbent President ran for reelection despite huge misgivings about his age and then had a debate so disastrous that he had to drop out only a few months before the election.

Nate Cohn summed up the challenges in the New York Times:

For the first time in decades, Republicans have pulled even or ahead in nationwide party identification. Polls also find Republicans with an edge on most key issues — with democracy and abortion standing as significant exceptions.

The Democrats’ challenge appears to be part of a broader trend of political struggles for ruling parties across the developed world. Voters appear eager for change when they get the chance. The ruling parties in Britain, Germany, Italy, Australia and most recently Japan all faced electoral setbacks or lost power. Mr. Trump himself lost four years ago. France and Canada might well join the list.

Trump should be running away with it. If Joe Biden was still on the ballot, Trump would likely be headed for an electoral landslide. The race is this close because of Kamala Harris.

I will just say right here that I think that’s overstated. There are plenty of people who would have voted for a fetid pile of garbage over Donald Trump and I think this race would be close even if Biden had stayed in the race. This was always about fascism and anti-fascism. And yes, Biden might well have lost but I don’t think it ever would have been a landslide, not with Trump on the ballot.

However, I just think Harris has made it much less close because of her special sauce of joy and forward thinking and especially her message to the women of America that Biden just couldn’t credibly make.

Pfeiffer gives her her due here:

A Candidate Who Delivered in Big Moments

Kamala Harris woke up one morning and ate breakfast as Vice President, and by lunchtime, she was the de facto Democratic nominee. She was thrust into the presidential race. Even though she knew there was a chance Biden would step aside, she could do nothing to prepare for that possibility. She couldn’t have a strategy meeting. Her team couldn’t write a memo or make a list of people to call. She couldn’t seek advice from people in her life. If she had and it leaked before Biden made his decision, her campaign might have ended before it began.

Normally, the nominee spends time campaigning in the early states, doing countless town halls, debates, and interviews. They hone their message, develop their policy platform, and answer tough questions about their record beforehand. The primaries are a chance for them to introduce themselves to the electorate.

Because of Harris’s failed 2020 campaign and some early stumbles as Vice President, questions arose about her political skills.

With the utmost pressure and scrutiny, Harris stepped into the breach and delivered. While she hasn’t been perfect, Kamala Harris has been pretty damn close. At every big moment — the debate, the convention, and her Fox interview, she delivered. She made the impossible look easy.

Kamala Harris pulled off a difficult maneuver and it hasn’t been discussed enough. She made politics fun and exciting again. She brought people who had checked out since 2020 back into the process. Democratic enthusiasm in this election is as high as it was in 2008 when Barack Obama was first running.

Under the leadership of Jen O’Malley Dillon, the Harris campaign did the unimaginable. One day they were working to elect Joe Biden, the next day they had a new candidate with a new message and new strategy. They had to pivot on a dime while incorporating new staff and advisers to the Vice President. In a month, the campaign vetted and rolled out a VP, reorganized the Biden campaign, planned a convention, developed a policy platform, and prepared Harris for a high-stakes debate. And, oh yeah, they raised a billion dollars.

I spent the weekend knocking doors for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in Nevada and Arizona. I haven’t seen Democrats this fired up in a very long time.

That’s because of Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, and their campaign team

I watched long sections of Trump’s rallies and Harris’s rallies that have been televised so far today. There is simply no comparison. Harris’s rallies are far, far more energetic, not to mention, far bigger. He is tired, he is sour, he is down. She is upbeat, smiling and the crowds are loving it. Crowds don’t mean everything but I think in this case they do mean something. The momentum is clearly with Harris.

It was always going to be a close eleciton because of the polarization and the unique grotesqueness of Donald Trump. But watching this unfold over the last couple of week especially, I think Harris’s energy and positivity has breathed new life into the anti-Trump constituency and I think it’s going to give her a decisive win.

As I’ve said before, I think she’ll win 51-47. And I’m guessing that she’s going to take the Blue wall and at least two of the other battlegrounds. I don’t believe this is going to be the squeaker everyone expects.

If I’m wrong, I won’t be too surprised. It wouldn’t be the first time. But as a close observer of American politics for some years now, this is what I’m seeing as we go into the big day tomorrow. Fingers crossed that I’m not just smoking the hopium.

Shambolic Criminal Enterprise

Published by digby on November 4, 2024

Stuart Stevens tweeted this about the Trump campaign. It’s so, so true:

Watching the Harris campaign vs. Trump, it’s striking how much of a higher level the Harris campaign is operating. It’s NFL vs. Division 2 college, at best.

Why? Part of it, of course, comes from Trump, who has made a mess of every organization he has ever controlled. But there’s another factor: Democrats have developed a much deeper bench of skilled political operatives.

In 1999, the Bush campaign assembled the best Republican political talent in Austin. In the 2000 campaign, the Bush campaign performed at a significantly higher level than the Gore campaign, which was sort of a mess, moving HQ from DC to Nashville, etc. Cut to 2016.

Most top level operatives did not want anything to do with the Trump campaign. It assembled a collection of second and third-stringers, weirdos, all the sort of people who had been trying to work at the presidential level, but nobody would let them in. Yes, Trump won, but it’s hard to say that his campaign performed at a higher level. Run that race 100 times, Clinton won 90, and it wasn’t like the Clinton campaign put together an awe-inspiring operation.

To recap, Trump’s 2016 campaign manager, campaign chairman, deputy campaign manager, national security advisor, foreign policy advisor, long-time political consultant, and personal attorney all went to prison.

That’s to be expected since the Trump campaign is organized like a large criminal enterprise. That has continued to this day. Yes, Chris LaCivita and Suzy Wiles are competent professionals, but look around, and there is still the same collection of second-stringers and freaks involved in the campaign.

Does that matter? Of course. What happened at MSG on Sunday highlighted what a shambolic, incompetent operation Trump has assembled. This should not be a surprise. Since 2016, Trump has run the Republican party. His management style is to hire people who could never have a like role based on merit so that they are loyal to him. (Witness the embarrassing spectacle of Alina Habba dancing out to the podium at Trump rallies.)

It’s how you run a mob, not a meritocracy. How long will it be until Republicans can catch up, assuming they can? I have no idea and honestly, I could care less.

That tracks with how he ran the government too.

Stop The Steal Redux

Published by digby on November 4, 2024

So, right-leaning pollsters dropped a whole bunch of new polls showing Trump doing well today. There’s no reason for it except to gin up the expectations among the Trump cult so that if he loses they can … do what? Write amicus briefs? Stand outside courtrooms holding signs? I don’t think so.

Here’s a little preview of what they may be planning:

Brandon Matlack, a coordinator for a group boosting former president Donald Trump’s election effort, was camped outside an election office in Pennsylvania’s Northampton County when he posted a video Tuesday on the social network X asking his 3,000 followers for help identifying a “very suspect” man he’d seen just drop off “an insane amount of ballots.”

Within minutes, his video had gone viral — cross-posted to Facebook groups, Rumble videos, Telegram channels and pro-Trump forums as visual evidence of election fraud. On X, the video raced to the top of a special “Election Integrity” feed newly promoted by its billionaire owner Elon Musk, where posts sharing the man’s face and license plate were viewed millions of times.

“A nervous operative of the Dem. cheating machine,” one X user wrote. On the social network Gab, another wrote, “Shoot him dead and figure it out later. Remember 2020 !!!”

The Post broke down the nine races and three long shots that could determine whether Democrats lose control of the Senate. Forty-three competitive races will determine whether Republicans retain their narrow control of the House.

But the man Matlack had recorded was actually a longtime U.S. Postal Service worker making a routine delivery, according to Lamont McClure, the county executive. The video ricocheting across X as proof of a conspiracy actually just showed the man doing his job.

The video’s near-instant virality was a victory for the organized network of conservative activists and conspiracy theorists who have spent years building online followings by promoting their belief in corrupt elections. On platforms controlled by Musk — and Trump, the majority owner of the online platform Truth Social — they have worked to stand up a preemptive infrastructure stronger than the “Stop the Steal” movement that grew after Trump’s 2020 loss.

Yikes.

[B]The viral claims could also help shape Republicans’ legal strategy to challenge election irregularities, as seen in the state lawsuits echoing Trump’s Truth Social posts about the purported risks of counting ballots from U.S. citizens or military service members stationed overseas. Last month, Musk shared a post saying Democrats planned to “steal elections using ‘overseas’ ballots”; two days later, Trump shared his post, adding, “Lawyers at RNC — STOP THIS FRAUD, NOW!!!”

Dean Jackson, a former investigative analyst on the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 insurrection, remembers watching the “Stop the Steal” movement rapidly assemble in Facebook groups after the 2020 vote. But he now worries about the damage that could be caused by election deniers’ four-year head start.

Major social media companies have rolled back content policies they enacted around the 2020 election. Musk and right-wing influencers have lent the movement prominence and legitimacy. And many deniers have moved on to more opaque online networks, including encrypted channels and private group chats, that make it harder for law enforcement to track.

“They have had four years to prime the base to believe and take action around false claims of fraud,” he said. “It feels like open season. It feels like we didn’t learn any of the lessons of 2020.”y contesting the results of the election even before any votes for Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris have been tallied, they have set the stage for a national resistance plan that online observers worry could echo the run-up to Jan. 6, 2021, when Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in support of his baseless claims that the election was rigged.

Like most people I doubt that there will be an exact re-enactment of January 6th. But somebody is going to do something.

And by the way, Republican officials are going to go along with it:

Trump’s unwavering claims about the nation’s election system being “rigged” have steadily gained more acceptance among rank-and-file Republicans voters over the past four years, and his biggest Republican critics in Congress have either retired, will retire soon or have lost sway…

“The strength of the cult of Trump amongst voters is strong so members are reflecting what their constituents want them to do,” said a Republican strategist and former Senate leadership aide. “The other angle is there are a lot of concerns about how elections are being conducted and the power of social media and our partisan news,” the strategist said. “Republicans watch a lot of Twitter and Fox News, and they see voting irregularities,” they continued, pointing out a recent Detroit News report that a Chinese citizen attending the University of Michigan voted illegally by absentee ballot, and election officials weren’t able to retrieve it.

I don’t know if these people have just decided that if you can’t beath ’em join ’em or if they’ve become believers themselves. Not that it makes any difference. But if anyone’s expecting them to fight this, they need to think again. I can’t imagine what would make them cross him at this point.

He’s Always Been This Way

Published by digby on November 4, 2024

Here’s the 1986 cover story of Spy Magazine’s first issue: “The 10 Most Embarrassing New Yorkers.”

He hasn’t changed a bit in 40 years.

* Note that they said way back when that he had the Times in his back pocket…

Only The Die Hards Are Left

Published by digby on November 4, 2024

I think we can call that “low energy” don’t you?

Losers In Scranton

Published by digby on November 4, 2024

It’s not the Democrats

Philip Bump of the Washington Post always travels to Scranton Pennsylvania in the days before the presidential election to check out the Get Out The Vote operations of both parties. His observations are very interesting this year. (gift link)

As I did in 2016 and 2020, I traveled to Scranton to see how the campaigns were tackling this task. Both of my prior visits were, at least in retrospect, revealing. In 2016, I was surprised to see little activity for Hillary Clinton’s campaign and a bustling turnout operation for Donald Trump. Four years later, it was Joe Biden — who often speaks of the time he spent in Scranton as a child — who was running an effective operation. Trump’s supporters seemed to be more focused on handing out lawn signs and boisterous parades of trucks.

In other words, in 2016 and 2020, the campaigns with the more robust GOTV field operations in Scranton (and presumably across the state) ended up winning. In Scranton in 2024, that was clearly the operation being run by Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign and its allies.

The Republicans:

Crossing a bridge over Roaring Brook brought me to the Republican Party headquarters for Lackawanna County, where volunteers in the parking lot were putting lawn signs into their cars.

Inside, about 20 more people were milling around. Some were there to knock on doors for the local Republican House candidate, Rob Bresnahan. Others were at a sign-in table where Robin Medeiros, 64, was preparing to lead a training.

Those volunteers, though, weren’t going out to turn out voters. Instead, Medeiros was helping them fill out the documents they’d need to be poll watchers on Election Day. Others were being trained to be greeters, welcoming people at polling places and providing information about Republican candidates. The focus was on managing those who came out to vote, not on making sure they came out in the first place.

Back in April, the then-new co-chair of the Republican Party, the Republican nominee’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump, made clear that poll-watching would be a central focus for the party in November. It was an institutional bet on the idea that Trump’s 2020 loss was attributable not to having more Biden voters turn out, but to that pro-Biden majority being a function of some wrongdoing at the polls. Never mind that there were poll watchers in 2020, too (including some I spoke to then). The party would in 2024 have its volunteers combat imaginary illegal voters instead of turning out real, legal ones. That latter task would be mostly left to outside groups, including, in Pennsylvania, Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s America PAC.

Meanwhile, the Democrats:

Babij and Orren-King had come with others on a bus that morning, arriving at a building so nondescript that Ken August, who lives in a Trump-flag adorned house across the street, didn’t know it was Harris’s headquarters. That, despite the activity: There had been five busses from Montclair, N.J. on that day, Babij said. Inside, the office had dozens of people coming and going.

Importantly, they were being tasked with trying to encourage voters to vote. There were scripts for what to say and an app on their phones with the people they were supposed to contact. There were stations through which volunteers would progress from sign-in to getting their materials and maps of their targeted neighborhoods.

The reasons offered by the volunteers for their participation with the campaign were often very personal. For example, Daryl Fanelli, 34, teaches English as a Second Language at a high school in Scranton. “I want my kids to be able to stay here,” she explained, and to have the opportunities that America provides. Even though they were still in high school, she said, they were very “riled up” about the election.

Sheli Pratt-McHugh, 44, wore a sweatshirt for the gun-control-advocacy group Moms Demand Action. She was volunteering, she said, “for my daughter’s future.” That daughter, Penny, 6, hugged her mother’s leg as she spoke.

Any GOP activity like that?

I saw any number of door hangers and fliers for the Democratic candidates: Harris, incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, Rep. Matt Cartwright and others. I saw no one walking on behalf of Trump and only one pro-Trump leaflet, paid for by Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania. (An email to Musk’s America PAC inquiring about its efforts wasn’t returned. Other reporting has described its work as chaotic, if not exploitative.)

No voters I spoke to said they’d seen any Trump walkers, either. One man told me he’d heard from just about everyone then clarified that he’d seen a walker wearing “flag-themed attire,” and just assumed that they were supporting Trump.

In Scranton, at least, Lara Trump’s vision for the 2024 election appears to have been made manifest: prioritizing the prevention of illegal in-person voting in lieu of promoting in-person voting by Trump supporters. Not useful for maximizing turnout, but potentially useful for ginning up reports that might be used to once again claim the existence of rampant fraud.

Trump told everyone that he didn’t need a Get Out The Vote operation because he was all that was needed. He even said “we don’t need any more votes.” So they’ve put their efforts into contesting the vote that they must assume they will not win.

They are losers and they know it.

“By 9 o’clock”

Published by digby on November 4, 2024

He actually thinks that in a close election you can count all the votes by 9 o’clock on election night. He’s is literally brain damaged.

If he didn’t need Artizona and Nevada I wouldn’t be surprised if he declared victory at 9 pm est tomorrow night, long before the polls have closed in the rest of the country. In fact, he may just do it anyway, declaring that he has it won in already in the Blue Wall and Georgia/N Carolina regardless of the count.

I wish I believed that his cult would see how ridiculous that is but they won’t. He has nothing to lose by declaring victory immediately because the actual results don’t matter either way. If he wins, he’ll say he should have won bigger and if he loses, well … we know how that goes.

This is lunacy.

This Is Bad

Published by digby on November 4, 2024

Greg Bluestein is a reporter with the Atlanta Journal Constitution. That’s for real.

Trump’s rallies are getting more and more pathetic. This is Georgia, one of his alleged stronghold swing states.

He’s not doing well. Not well at all. The Huffington Post asked the campaign if he’s ok and this is what they got:

Will Women Be The Nail In His Coffin?

Published by digby on November 4, 2024

Oh, I hope so. I really hope so.

What a creep

Tomorrow is election day, the last day of voting in this tumultuous 2024 campaign. What a long, strange trip it’s been. Just a year ago, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was challenging former president Trump for the GOP nomination by saying the word “woke” at least a hundred times a day while former S. Carolina Gov Nikki Haley competed for what’s left of the “normie” Republican vote. A clown car full of grifters and kooks, meanwhile, used the primaries as an opportunity to suck up to Trump, whom everyone knew would inevitably be the nominee. After all, he’d been running non-stop since 2015.

Meanwhile on the Democratic side, incumbent president Joe Biden was an unchallenged shoo-in for the Democratic nomination and most people felt he’d probably be able to replicate his 2020 win despite being unpopular due to a lingering hangover from the pandemic. After all, Trump had incited an insurrection and was facing lawsuits and felony trials in federal court and two different states stemming from a variety of alleged crimes. Surely, he couldn’t possibly win after all that?

Since that time, Joe Biden was revealed to be just too old to run for president again and was replaced by his younger Vice President, Kamala Harris who sparked a massive rise in enthusiasm among Democrats. And Donald Trump has likewise shown that his millions-strong cult of personality is fully intact and they are ecstatic about putting him back in the White House in spite of his many flaws (maybe even because of them.) We could find out the winner as soon as tomorrow night — or maybe not.

If it’s as close as many of the pollsters say it is it could take a while before we know the final results. And it goes without saying that unless they call the race for him right away, Trump is planning to cry”fraud” and will do everything in his power to create the illusion that he won regardless of the count and we can expect chaos. He’s made that very clear.

The polls have more or less shown a tied race nationally and in the swing states for the past couple of months. Whether that’s correct or not, we don’t know. Because they missed some Trump voters in 2016 and 2020, everyone is on edge that the same thing has happened again despite the pollsters’ going out of their way to correct the problem this time. With the polls this close that error could translate to a repeat of 2016 which has a whole lot of people losing sleep these last few weeks.

But something unexpected happened this past weekend that may have called those assumptions into question. The Des Moines Register poll, considered one of the best in all of politics due to pollster J. Ann Selzer’s excellent track record, dropped its final poll of the cycle and it landed like a nuclear bomb. Iowa is a solid red state and the previous poll had Trump winning the state handily as expected. Now the numbers showed Harris beating Trump 47-44. Boom.

Iowa is one of the whitest states in the union, so race isn’t a factor which makes it an interesting proxy for white voters in other swing states with similar populations (like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, for instance.) The paper reported that while Trump has maintained his base of men, evangelical voters, rural residents and non-college educated voters, women, specifically older and politically independent women, have swung in large numbers to Harris. And just as surprising, Harris is winning voters over 65, which has been a GOP base vote for decades. What in the world does this mean?

First, it’s pretty clear that reproductive rights are driving this race for a whole lot of people. Iowa, in particular, is now living under a draconian 6 week abortion ban that was upheld by its far right Supreme Court last summer. Justice Samuel Alito wrote in his notorious opinion that “women are not without electoral or political power.” It appears we may be about to find out the truth of that.

People expected that younger women would vote in large numbers on this issue but there seems to be some surprise that older women would be motivated to do so. Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno was caught on video bemoaning the “single issue” women voters and wondering why women over 50 would care about it.

I guess it’s hard for right wingers to understand why anyone would care about someone other than themselves. But it’s more than that. The reversal of Roe vs Wade was deeply offensive to many women of all ages, something we could only see as a direct attack on our basic human rights by a group of men (and one very conservative woman) determined to turn back the clock to a time when women were literally second class citizens. Women can see where this is leading and it isn’t toward freedom and equality — for any of us.

The Republican party and its leader, a predator found legally liable for sexual assault, is running for election on a platform of flagrant misogyny. Donald Trump literally said, ‘I was able to kill Roe v. Wade’ until he belatedly realized it wasn’t popular, at which point he came up with his fatuous rationale that “everyone wanted it to go back to the states” which is utterly absurd and most people know it. He’s lately taken to saying that he’ll be women’s “protector” which coming from him, is more of a threat. In fact, in recent days he’s said that he’ll “protect” women “whether the women like it or not.”

Then you have his choice for Vice President JD Vance, who thinks that women should stay in abusive marriages, thinks abortion should be banned nationally even in cases of rape and incest and wants to prevent women from travelling out of state to obtain them. And he famously believes that “childless cat ladies” are the cause of everything wrong in our culture and agrees that “the whole purpose of the post-menopausal female is child care.”

And people are surprised that women of all ages are refusing to vote for these people?

This Iowa poll may be an outlier and all the chatter about this remarkable result will end up being nothing more than election year lore. Most analysts still seem to think that it’s nearly impossible to believe that Harris will actually win Iowa. But this poll is one of the very few that caught the hidden angry non-college educated Trump vote in 2016 and 2020. There is every reason to believe that it may be catching the hidden pissed off college educated and independent women Harris vote in 2024. Nothing would be more satisfying than for this voting block to be the one to spell the end of Donald Trump’s political career. 

Update: A Trumper

That’s going to work out just great.

Salon

Our Turn

Published by Tom Sullivan on November 4, 2024

All the way through the tape

Historian Heather Cox Richardson, from her Facebook page.

Heather Cox Richardson recounts how when in the 1850s it seemed “elite enslavers had become America’s rulers,” Americans (might we say real Americans?) organized and fought back, ending slavery once and for all:

In less than ten years the country went from a government dominated by a few fabulously wealthy men who rejected the idea that human beings are created equal and who believed they had the right to rule over the masses, to a defense of government of the people, by the people, for the people, and to leaders who called for a new birth of freedom. But Lincoln did not do any of this alone: always, he depended on the votes of ordinary people determined to have a say in the government under which they lived.

In the 1860s the work of those people established freedom and democracy as the bedrock of the United States of America, but the structure itself remained unfinished. In the 1890s and then again in the 1930s, Americans had to fight to preserve democracy against those who would destroy it for their own greed and power. Each time, thanks to ordinary Americans, democracy won.

Now it is our turn.

It’s going to be a long day tomorrow. It could be a long night. Then again, it could be a blowout loss for the orange blow-up doll. Filmmaker Michael Moore predicted a month ago that “Trump is toast.” He still thinks so.

Moore wrote in October:

Right now, if you know how to really read the polls, or if you have access to the various private and internal polling being conducted by and shared only amongst the elites, Wall Street, and Members of Congress, then you already know that this election was over weeks ago. 

That feels right. So I’m increasingly annoyed that the press and the Harris campaign are portraying the presidential election as razor thin. They have their reasons. Holding eyeballs, for the former. (For the press, it’s also obeying in advance.) Keeping volunteers juiced and door-knocking, for the latter. It’s as if there’s a giant, um, agreement(?) to hype a photo finish. But a close-race narrative is just what Trump is counting on to give credence to Big Lie 2.0 when he loses. Not helpful.

Be joyful warriors and keep running through the tape, as Coach Walz says. That’s helpful. Run up the score. There’s another once-and-for-all to accomplish. Because our present rhymes with our past, Richardson reminds us:

In our era the same struggle has resurfaced. A small group of leaders has rejected the idea that all people are created equal and seeks to destroy our democracy in order to install themselves into permanent power. 

And just as our forebears did, Americans have reached for whatever tools we have at hand to build new coalitions across the nation to push back. After decades in which ordinary people had come to believe they had little political power, they have mobilized to defend American democracy and—with an electorate that now includes women and Black Americans and Brown Americans—have discovered they are strong. 

Reflecting on the movement built since Trump arrived on scene, Richardson has hope. “[I]t looks to me like the revolution of the 1850s that gave America a new birth of freedom.”