Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

If you have time to read one long story today, I recommend this one about the South Korea coup attempt in the Washington Post. I’m including a gift link so you can read the whole thing. Let’s just say the echoes are deafening:

Piecing together their accounts shows that Yoon’s plan had probably been months in the making and that he intended to use martial law to target political opponents and pursue baseless election fraud claims — a much more extensive agenda than he has claim

[…]

There was Yoon’s increasingly sharp rhetoric about his opponents. Then came the surprise appointment of his friend as defense minister. Then that minister surrounded himself with loyalists at the top of the chain of command. It seemed as if something as extreme as martial law could be in the works, said Park, formerly the nation’s deputy intelligence chief.

“We knew they were an extremely right-wing force, and they would do things we cannot imagine,” he said. “I warned this is a dangerous situation, it’s going to change quickly.”

All year, South Korea’s domestic political scene had been consumed by scandals — relentlessly targeted by the opposition — alleging corruption involving Yoon’s wife. The government declined to investigate, and the opposition blocked government initiatives, including budget measures, in response.

Yoon became increasingly isolated as he grew more frustrated, analysts say, leaning on a tiny group of loyalists, including Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun. This made Yoon more volatile, said Park Sung-min, a veteran political consultant.

Yoon’s decision in September to appoint Kim as the top defense official had prompted concerns, Park said. Not only was Kim known to be close to Yoon, the change was highly unusual ahead of the U.S. presidential election, given Seoul’s dependence on Washington for its security, the political consultant said.

Kim’s appointment also drew attention to the use of powerful school connections, which raised flags even in a nation that strongly values alumni networks.

Apparently, he was especially focused on manufactured charges of election interference and fraud. And yes, he did call out the military.

You have to read the whole thing. It’s such a cautionary tale. But then South Korea is apparently a much more highly developed democracy than America (despite our being 250 years old…) so they are actually managing to get rid of the guy who corrupted their government. We don’t do that here. When one of our presidents attempts a coup we send him home to his mansion for a few years to collect a bunch of money and then elect him again.

You love to see it

So to recap, yesterday:

-Elon/Vivek trashed American workers
-MAGA confirmed they’re against all forms of immigration
-Elon confirmed he’s not a “free speech absolutist”
-A ‘MAGA Civil war’ rages on

And Trump isn’t even president yet!

More: https://t.co/pLQv4jGF1b pic.twitter.com/SsHADUYFaf

— The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) December 27, 2024

Wow, last night the Free Speech Absolutist removed the blue checks, changed the algo to crush their engagement, and removed the ability to get subscriptions, from dozens of big MAGA accounts who criticized him including Loomer. pic.twitter.com/oiDi0CNTAf

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) December 27, 2024

I wrote a bit about this yesterday so there’s no need to go into detail. (If you want it, just check into Twitter today…) But the little brouhaha did open the eyes of some of the MAGA folk who now realize that Musk has no respect or regard for them, is in it for himself, and his “free speech” yammering is all BS. Imagine that.

I think one of the sleeper hit sideshows of this next year is going to be MAGA on MAGA infighting. We’re seeing it here on social media and we’ve already seen it in the US Congress. Democrats are impotent and these people aren’t alive unless they’re going after someone so it stands to reason they’d start eating their own.

I suppose Dear Leader could do something. Unfortunately:

Here is Trump today, as President Musk & VP Ramaswamy roll out their new immigration policy. pic.twitter.com/RZRlYA9vSM

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) December 27, 2024

Buy popcorn futures.

The ballot counting is over but not the litigation

Welcome to the Great State of North Carolina (ProPublica):

Months before voters went to the polls in November, a group of election skeptics based in North Carolina gathered on a call and discussed what actions to take if they doubted any of the results.

One of the ideas they floated: try to get the courts or state election board to throw out hundreds of thousands of ballots cast by voters whose registrations are missing a driver’s license number and the last four digits of a Social Security number.

But that idea was resisted by two activists on the call, including the leader of the North Carolina chapter of the Election Integrity Network. The data was missing not because voters had done something wrong but largely as a result of an administrative error by the state. The leader said the idea was “voter suppression” and “100%” certain to fail in the courts, according to a recording of the July call obtained by ProPublica.

This novel theory is now at the center of a legal challenge by North Carolina appeals court Judge Jefferson Griffin, a Republican who lost a race for a state Supreme Court seat to the Democratic incumbent, Allison Riggs, by just 734 votes and is seeking to have the result overturned.

The state election board dismissed a previous version of the challenge, which is now being considered in federal court. Before the election, a Trump-appointed judge denied an attempt by the Republican National Committee to remove 225,000 voters from the rolls based on the same theory.

Copland has been voting since 1988, and after surviving Hurricane Helene, she just wants her voice to be heard. Jefferson Griffin doesn’t think her vote, nor the votes of her Western NC neighbors, should count.Add your name against the campaign to throw out 60,000 votes: ccnc.me/WeMatter

— Common Cause NC (@commoncausenc.bsky.social) 2024-12-26T20:27:36.462Z

I’ve tangled before with one of the scheme’s backers. He’s been at challenging votes for years:

In July 2024, the North Carolina chapter of the Election Integrity Network convened online to plan its efforts ahead of the presidential election. Worried about a surge of voter registrations from nonwhite voters who they believed would back Democrats, the activists discussed how to assemble a “suspicious voters list” of people whose ballots they could challenge.

Then, one of the group’s board members, Jay DeLancy, said he had another idea “that’s a lot slicker.”

DeLancy said that if a candidate lost a close election, the loss could be overturned by questioning the validity of voters whose registrations are missing their driver’s license and Social Security information. “Those are illegal votes,” he claimed. “I would file a protest.”

Jim Womack, the leader of the chapter, immediately pushed back: “That’s a records keeping problem on the part of the state board. That’s not illegal.”

But it’s nothing ventured, nothing gained in the election-rigging business.

By any means necessary

Though Griffin’s challenge of Riggs’ victory is now being considered in federal court, legal experts say it could still end up back where he intended: in front of the state Supreme Court.

Griffin’s petition is making what experts describe as extreme asks to the Supreme Court: to allow him to bypass the lower courts, to allow ballots to be thrown out without proving that voters did anything knowingly wrong and to essentially decide whether to change its composition to six Republicans and one Democrat.

Getting this dubious case somehow to the state Supreme Court is the endgame here. If not to throw the election to Griffin, then to force a new election.

And this Griffin guy want to sit on the same Supreme Court.

A Boxing Day survey of storm devastation off the beaten path

Ridgetops look like they’ve been bombed. Riverbeds are scoured, banks ripped open and lined with trash. Trees that once obscured the views are uprooted, toppled and lying in ranks. You’ve likely seen post-Helene images from western North Carolina. Many are of the River Arts District in Asheville and of devastation in nearby Swannanoa to the east. The Washington Post this week profiled Swannanoa flood victims from a row of mill houses left over from the days of the Beacon blanket factory, long gone.

A month ago, I told readers the region was out of the news but not out of the woods. That’s still true. Except on Boxing Day I surveyed some of the worst damage myself for the first time and came home stricken. The photos cannot convey the impact of the storm where news crews don’t go.

The bottom fell out of the sky on Sept. 25, two days before the remnants of Hurricane Helene even reached WNC. The rainfall was torrential and the ground saturation thorough. When the winds arrived on Friday morning, trees, big ones still in leaf, leaned over and fell everywhere in the city, shredding power lines and snapping power poles. Only more so did along exposed ridges. Picture the bomb damage in Gaza, only with trees instead of concrete. Where chainsaw crews cut downed trees off remote roadways, their carcasses line the highway for miles. When some agency will remove the debris, if ever, is anyone’s guess. Patching washed-out sections of roadway merits higher priority.

The winds hit hardest at elevation. Down below along waterways it was the flooding.

Along Paint Fork Rd. south of Barnardsville, flooding washed out culverts by the dozens. Fresh gravel drives covering shiny, new galvanized culverts lead to homes on the west side of the creek. In Barnardsville proper, flooding along Ivy Creek widened the streambed dramatically and left at least one destroyed bridge sitting in it downstream of where it once stood.

Forty-three died in Buncombe County alone, most from drowning, others killed by falling trees. In Swannanoa proper, where the Swannanoa River runs beside U.S. 70 in a low, flat valley, floodwaters spread out across a broad area and inundated homes and businesses. Much of the national news coverage you’ve seen focuses there.

But downstream and west of I-40 exit 59, the river loops north, west, and then south again. It flooded flat farmland before turning south and funneling itself into a narrow valley adjacent to the Botany Woods neighborhood. The waters rapidly filled the valley, tearing away vegetation and carrying away homes and residents.

I’d heard about the damage to this section of the county in October, but seeing it in person now that roads are serviceable again was shocking. Debris in some places hung in the trees 30 feet above the normal river level on Thursday. Trying to picture the scene was horrifying. Rain and wind now trigger survivors’ PTSD. It might be one of those internet “facts,” but more than a few here have told me we are among the few humans to witness a geologic event in their lifetimes.

So much Helene damage was never visible to national cameras. Flooding at PVC pipe manufacturer Silver-Line Plastics washed 10-ft lengths of pipe of various diameters downstream along the French Broad River north of Asheville. White plastic pipe hangs in the remaining trees lining the riverbanks for 30 or so miles like so much spaghetti.

“Silver-Line says it has hired a company to clean up the pipes,” Asheville Watchdog reports:

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is often tasked with maintenance and debris removal in rivers. David Connelly, a spokesperson for the Corps, explained how the system works in these types of disasters.

“Obviously the Silver-Line Plastics debris is an issue and is definitely on the radar; however, it is just one part of the estimated 10,445,000 cubic yards of debris across 27 counties in Western North Carolina we are working on,” Connelly said via email.

Upstream inside Asheville city limits, storm debris washed down the Swannanoa is not going anywhere soon.

@wlos_news_13 Destruction from Hurricane Helene on Thompson Street in Asheville, N.C. #helene #heleneaftermath #asheville #ashevillenc #ashevillenorthcarolina #ashevilleflood #ashevillenctravel #news #newstory ♬ original sound – WLOS News 13

First priority goes to direct relief efforts to people who’ve lost homes, belongings, businesses and jobs. River cleanup is almost a tertiary effort, if I read the reporting right. Where counties and states cannot handle the cleanup tasks, FEMA tasks the Corps to help. But that could take months. Removal of downed trees in remote areas like I drove though on Thursday could take longer. Years maybe. Or never.

When election results rolled in on November 5, among our first thoughts here was federal relief will dry up under Trump 2.0. Already the Republican majority in Raleigh seems bent on cutting off state relief to devastated counties that shifted bluer. The continuing resolution passed in Washington a week ago provides “about $100 billion in aid for states stricken by hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with other disasters.” However, N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) estimated in late October that North Carolina’s need alone tops $53 billion.

Trump has named his ambassador to Panama, the country he’s threatening with invasion and annexation:

Perhaps that name sounds familiar but you can’t quite place it? He a mover and shaker in Southern Florida, MAGA all the way. But you may recognize the name as one of the GOP operatives involved in a Proud Boys attack in Miami against Nancy Pelosi. Remember this?

The Proud Boys, called a hate group by the SPLC, joined the Miami Dade GOP’s protest of Shalala’s office event with Pelosi yesterday

Story (not about Proud Boys) is here: https://t.co/tYUhhc85sS pic.twitter.com/qpS4k2BkEZ

— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) October 18, 2018

Mob rushes Nancy Pelosi on her way into a campaign stop calling her a "F**king communist!"

Security had to hold back the anti-communism protesters as a frightened Pelosi was rushed into a doorway.

Mob chanted "Communism sucks!" while beating on the doorhttps://t.co/5EAgqOq3Ma pic.twitter.com/SqMlPKYKfx

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 19, 2018

It was reported at the time:

Diaz, the Miami-Dade County Republican Party chairman, is employed by the Southern Strategy Group, a government relations firm.

One of Diaz’s co-workers is Kevin Cabrera, who was formerly employed by Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL). This is an image of Cabrera from the Southern Strategy Group website:

In footage of the demonstration that was posted on Big League Politics, it appears as though Cabrera (in a black shirt) joined Diaz as part of the angry mob:

He’s a “fierce fighter” alright. Trump does love a MAGA mob, so it stands to reason he’d choose one of his violent henchmen to be an ambassador.

This action was widely condemned by Republicans at the time. But those days are gone. This is completely acceptable right wing behavior these days.

MAGA Farmers wondering who’s going to pick those damn crops:

The country’s largest agricultural constituency backed Trump in November, bucking California’s deep-blue electorate over his campaign promises to “open the faucet” and deliver more water to the state’s parched, conservative-leaning Central Valley. But now it’s reckoning with an uncomfortable contradiction: Trump also campaigned on mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, who make up at least half of the state’s agricultural workforce.

That’s left California’s agricultural barons, who employ the most farm workers of any state in the nation and grow half the produce consumed in the United States, nervously parsing Trump’s rhetoric.

“To say it would have an impact on California would be an understatement,” said Chris Reardon, vice president of policy advocacy at the industry group California Farm Bureau Federation. Reardon, who declined to say who he voted for, has been fielding calls from members asking him what exactly will happen to workers.

“We just don’t know yet,” he’s told them.

Trump has appointed anti-immigration hawks to top positions, like Thomas Homan as border czar, and pledged to begin deportations on “Day One” of his administration, through executive orders crafted to evade legal challenges and by undoing Biden-era restrictions on deportations. Dave Puglia, the president and CEO of the Western Growers Association, called the prospect of sweeps on farms “very troubling.”

Big Ag’s throwing a lot of money around in the hopes that a deal can be made to exempt agricultural workers from the mass deportation. I won’t be surprised if it works. They have a lot of clout.

Maybe there will be some raids on some processing plants or big farming operations to “send a message” and then they’ll let it go. I could see the same in some restaurants or certain neighborhoods and some ostentatious expulsions of people who are already in custody before they move on to something else.

Keep in mind that he was planning to run on closing the border until Biden pretty much did that and the Congress came up with that bipartisan draconian bill he ordered the Republicans to tank. Mass deportation was a relatively late campaign message. So, who knows how serious they really are beyond providing some thrilling visuals of abject cruelty toward migrants for their slavering cult members to enjoy.

It could happen, of course. It’s very hard to know just how much of this extremist agenda is for real and how much is Trump strutting around like a WWE wrestler. There will be legal challenges to everything they try and it’s always possible that events will overtake their plans in any case.

If it weren’t for all the human suffering involved, I’d say that all these Trump voting fools should have to get a taste of his toxic medicine. Let Miller and Homan have their way. However, these are human beings we’re talking about not pawns so I hope this is actually a show for the MAGA cult and not a real policy. Of course, even the show will bring misery to many people so it’s hardly something to wish for. But it’s probably the best we can do in the current circumstances.

Oh, and Trump can’t “open the faucet” either. And they, of all people, know that. It’s absurd. They believe what they want to believe about his policies but they backed him for the same reason all his voters did — he owns the libs. It’s what they all have in common, rich and working class alike. That’s what makes MAGA tick.

My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep — Neville Chamberlain

How’d that work out? As you no doubt recall, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia the next day.

For decades, the Republicans accused the Democrats of being Neville Chamberlains every time they suggested that the right’s bellicose saber rattling was over the top. They are still saber-rattling — against our allies like Canada, Mexico, Panama and Greenland, as we have seen during the Trump transition. Trump seems to have decided that threats of territorial expansion and invasion is going to be a cornerstone of his new administration.

But when it comes to Russia, the GOP has become Neville Chamberlain on steroids:

Rep. Ryan Zinke responds to Russia allegedly downing another passenger jet by suggesting Ukraine pledging to not join NATO and handing over Crimea to Russia would be "a good start" for negotiations to end Putin's war on Ukraine pic.twitter.com/iJl5DG1Nb7

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) December 26, 2024

Accountability is only for people the Republicans don’t like. For his friends, (like Vladimir Putin) no act of provocation and violence is worthy of condemnation. It’s always a reason for Putin’s enemies to capitulate and give him whatever he wants.

What could go wrong?

There is a permanent shortage of excellent engineering talent. It is the fundamental limiting factor in Silicon Valley.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 25, 2024

Interesting, no? Trump and his tech bro buddies need labor so it’s important that we make sure they can immigrate. I guess all the construction, agriculture, hospitality jobs that are currently filled by the foreigners Trump plans to deport are going to be filled by what? Prison labor? We have less that 4% unemployment. Who’s going to do it?

Musk doesn’t care about any of that, of course. He went on to explain:

“The number of people who are super talented engineers AND super motivated in the USA is far too low. Think of this like a pro sports team: if you want your TEAM to win the championship, you need to recruit top talent wherever they may be. That enables the whole TEAM to win.”

MAGA fans were confused and upset. According to TNR, this one went viral:

“There are over 330 million people in America. Surely, there must be enough among them to build your ultimate team?Why would you deny real Americans that opportunity by bringing foreigners here?”

There were dozens and dozens of similar replies, many people arguing and obviously upset that the richest man in the world can’t find a way to train or otherwise make Real Americans the beneficiaries of silicon valley profits.

Musk was having none of it:

It comes down to this: do you want America to WIN or do you want America to LOSE.

If you force the world’s best talent to play for the other side, America will LOSE.

End of story.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 25, 2024

He means, “if you want me and my rich pals to win.” And that is a very old right wing conservative talking point. It’s called “trickle down” and it is antithetical to the alleged populism fuelling MAGA. Who’s going to tell them?

This could get very interesting if someone can put puppet president Donald Trump on the spot over this. A lot of those MAGA followers on Twitter don’t seem to think that Musk and his tech-bro buds are special and should be allowed to have special dispensation from the foreigner purge of America.

At some point some of them are going to realize that Musk is an immigrant himself.

Update — Vivek Ramaswamy tweeted this:

The reason top tech companies often hire foreign-born & first-generation engineers over “native” Americans isn’t because of an innate American IQ deficit (a lazy & wrong explanation). A key part of it comes down to the c-word: culture. Tough questions demand tough answers & if we’re really serious about fixing the problem, we have to confront the TRUTH:

Our American culture has venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long (at least since the 90s and likely longer). That doesn’t start in college, it starts YOUNG.

A culture that celebrates the prom queen over the math olympiad champ, or the jock over the valedictorian, will not produce the best engineers.

A culture that venerates Cory from “Boy Meets World,” or Zach & Slater over Screech in “Saved by the Bell,” or ‘Stefan’ over Steve Urkel in “Family Matters,” will not produce the best engineers.

(Fact: I know *multiple* sets of immigrant parents in the 90s who actively limited how much their kids could watch those TV shows precisely because they promoted mediocrity…and their kids went on to become wildly successful STEM graduates).

More movies like Whiplash, fewer reruns of “Friends.” More math tutoring, fewer sleepovers. More weekend science competitions, fewer Saturday morning cartoons. More books, less TV. More creating, less “chillin.” More extracurriculars, less “hanging out at the mall.”

Most normal American parents look skeptically at “those kinds of parents.” More normal American kids view such “those kinds of kids” with scorn. If you grow up aspiring to normalcy, normalcy is what you will achieve.

Now close your eyes & visualize which families you knew in the 90s (or even now) who raise their kids according to one model versus the other. Be brutally honest.

“Normalcy” doesn’t cut it in a hyper-competitive global market for technical talent. And if we pretend like it does, we’ll have our asses handed to us by China.

This can be our Sputnik moment. We’ve awaken from slumber before & we can do it again. Trump’s election hopefully marks the beginning of a new golden era in America, but only if our culture fully wakes up. A culture that once again prioritizes achievement over normalcy; excellence over mediocrity; nerdiness over conformity; hard work over laziness.

That’s the work we have cut out for us, rather than wallowing in victimhood & just wishing (or legislating) alternative hiring practices into existence. I’m confident we can do it. 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 

The party that rejects vaccines, climate change, higher education and expertise of all kinds is leading that charge? Lol! Drink more bleach (and raw milk) America!

Yes, we have all accepted the horrific results of the November election, But that doesn’t mean January 6th won’t be a shitshow. The following was tweeted by right wing reporter Chad Pergram:

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Failing to Elect a House Speaker Quickly

The problem has been percolating for a while.

It’s been subterranean. Lurking underneath the surface. Not necessarily perceptible.

Except to those who follow Congress closely.

But the issue gurgled to the top since the House stumbled badly trying to avert a government shutdown last week.

To wit:

Congress spasmed between a staggering, 1,500-page spending bill. Then defeated a narrow, 116-page bill – which President-elect Trump endorsed. Things got worse when the House only commandeered a scant 174 yeas for the Trump-supported bill and 38 Republicans voted nay. Circumstances grew even more dire when the House actually voted to avert a holiday government shutdown – but passed the bill with more Democrats (196) than Republicans (170). 34 GOPers voted nay.

It was long likely that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., might face a problem winning the Speaker’s gavel immediately when the new Congress convenes at noon et on January 3. Congressional experts knew that Johnson could be in trouble once the contours of the reed-thin House majority came into focus weeks after the November election. This could blossom into a full-blown crisis for Johnson – and House Republicans –when the Speaker’s vote commences a little after 1 pm et next Friday. 

 Johnson emerges bruised from last week’s government funding donnybrook. Anywhere from four to ten Republicans could oppose Johnson in the Speaker’s race.

Here’s the math:

The House clocks in at 434 members with one vacancy. That’s thanks to former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla. He resigned his position for this Congress a few weeks ago. Even though Gaetz won re-election in November, his resignation letter – read on the floor of the House – signaled he did not plan to serve in the new Congress which begins in January.

This is the breakdown when the Congress starts: 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats.

President-elect Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor, Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., remains in the House for now. So does Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y. Mr. Trump tapped her to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. That’s pending Senate confirmation – perhaps in late January or early February. Once Waltz and Stefanik resign, the GOP majority dwindles to 217-214.

But the Speaker’s election on January 3 poses a special challenge. Here’s the bar for Johnson – or any one else: The Speaker of the House must win an outright majority of all Members casting ballots for someone by name. In other words, the person with the most votes does not win. That’s what happened repeatedly to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., when he routinely outpolled House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., for Speaker to begin this Congress in January 2023. But it took days for McCarthy to cross the proper threshold.

More on that in a moment. 

So let’s crunch the math for Mike Johnson. If there are 219 Republicans and four vote for someone besides him – and all Democrats cast ballots for Jeffries, the tally is 215-214. But there’s no Speaker. No one attained an outright majority of all Members casting ballots for someone by name. 218 is the magic number if all 434 Members vote.

By rule, this paralyzes the House. The House absolutely, unequivocally, cannot do anything until it elects a Speaker. Period.

The House can’t swear-in Members. Technically, they’re still Representatives-elect. Only after the House chooses its Speaker does he or she in turn swear-in the membership.

The House certainly can’t pass legislation. It can’t form committees. It’s frozen in a parliamentary paralysis until it elects a Speaker.

Now, I hope you’re sitting down for the next part.

This also means that the House cannot certify the results of the Electoral College, making President-elect Trump the 47th President of the United States on January 6.

The failure to elect a Speaker compels the House to vote over and over….

And over.. and.. over..

Until it finally taps someone.

McCarthy’s election incinerated 15 ballots over five days two years ago.

The House settled into a Congressional cryogenic freeze for three weeks after Members ousted McCarthy in October of 2023. It burned through two Speaker candidates off the floor – House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., – and one candidate on the floor: Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

So you see the problem. 

Consider for a moment that prior to last year, the House never went to a second ballot to select a Speaker since Speaker Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923.

It took 63 ballots before the House finally settled on Speaker Howell Cobb, D-Ga., in 1849.

But that’s nothing. The longest Speaker’s election consumed two months before the House elected Speaker Nathaniel Banks, R-Mass., in 1856 – on the 133rd ballot.

So anything which elongates this into a collision with January 6th- the statutory day to certify the election results and now one of the most ignominious days in American history – is dangerous.

To be clear: there is no dispute that President-elect Trump won the election. There is no anticipation of a repeat of a riot at the Capitol like four years ago. But a failure to certify the Electoral College on the day it’s supposed to be completed – especially after the 2021 experience – is playing with fire. Such a scenario would again reveal another, never-before-considered vulnerability in the fragile American political system. 

On January 6, the House and Senate are supposed to meet in a Joint Session of Congress to tabulate and certify the electoral votes. Any disputes over a state’s slate of electoral votes compels the House and Senate to then debate and vote separately on those results. The election is not final until the Joint Session concludes and the Vice President – in this case Vice President Harris in her capacity as President of the Senate – announces a victor.

Congress is not required to certify the Electoral College on the calendar day of January 6. There is actually some leeway to wrap things up. In 2021, the Electoral College wasn’t certified until around 3:52 am et on January 7. It only becomes a major problem if this drags on through noon et on January 20. That’s when the Constitution prescribes that the President-elect take the oath of office.

What happens if the Electoral College isn’t sorted out by January 20? Well, President Biden is done. So he’s gone. The same with Harris. Next in the presidential line of succession is the Speaker of the House. Well, there’s no Speaker. So who becomes President? 

Well, there is at that moment a President Pro Tempore of the Senate, the most senior member of the majority party. He or she is 4th in line to the Presidency. At this moment, the President Pro Tempore is Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash. But Republicans claim control of the chamber in early January. And unlike the House if it’s stymied over a Speaker, the Senate is functioning. That means 91-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, becomes Senate President Tempore. Grassley has served in the Senate since 1981.

If the House is still frittering away time, trying to elect a Speaker on January 20, Grassley likely becomes “Acting President.”

I write “likely” because this gets into some serious, extra-Constitutional turf. These are unprecedented scenarios. Strange lands never visited in the American political experience.

And it all hinges on Mike Johnson – or frankly, someone else – wrapping up the Speaker’s vote with dispatch on January 3. Any interregnum like the past two Speaker’s elections begins establishing challenging historical precedents.

But frankly, it’s unclear if the House can avoid such contretemps.

It’s about the math. And once again, balancing that parliamentary equation is tenuous at best. 

They’ll probably come around, just so that Trump isn’t embarrassed, right? Right?????

I honestly don’t know. These backbenchers are completely nuts. They might not care.