Author: digby

The Big Winner

I’ve been taken to task for complaining about the media and upon reflection I think the criticism is valid. I keep forgetting about the all American belief that winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing. I was cruelly reminded of this on inauguration day 2001 when a neighbor of mine said simply “Stop your bellyaching. Americans respect winners. Bush deserves to be president because he is the president.” Winner John Kerry is quoted as saying something similar:

He is impatient with Democratic oratory about the “stolen” election. “Stop crying in your teacups,” he told one audience. “It isn’t going to change. Get over it.”

That’s winner talk. One reason that Kerry is the winner is because he knows how to talk like one, as when he said, (in response to Dean’s vaunted internet presence) “Well, the last person I heard who claimed he had invented the Internet didn’t do so well.” The media’s ears are well tuned to that kind of language. It feels right to them.

Whining about the media’s unfairness or RNC cheating or primary voter’s laziness or the Supreme Court stopping the vote count is useless. It does not matter how it happens, the end justifies the means. If you can’t make it happen, you don’t deserve to win, even if the deck is stacked, the media are useless lemmings or the other side hacks into the Diebold voting machines. If the game is rigged a true winner would make sure it’s rigged in his favor. That’s the American Way.

So, while it is certainly true that Kerry is not even close to attaining the required number of delegates, he is the winner because he has won and that means he will keep winning. And that is exactly what the Democratic Party wanted. The entire point of pushing up the primaries was to get a winner as quickly as possible. The DNC apparently knew that Democrats in these new early states would have no clue that they were playing a hugely important role in picking the nominee so they’d go with whoever Iowa and New Hampshire chose simply because they figure those guys “did the research.”

And, if there are two states in the country that we can rely on to pick winners for us it’s Iowa and New Hampshire.

At least we won’t have to go through another losing nominating process like the last time we had a large field. In 1992, they didn’t even hold the New Hampshire primary until the end of February, fergawdsake. Bigtime Loser Clinton won just 3 of his first 14 contests. In fact, he finished fourth four times, often behind “Uncommitted.”

Here’s the breakdown:

1.21.1992

IA caucus: Harkin 76.4%, Tsongas 4.1%, Clinton 2.8%, Kerrey 2.4%, Brown 1.6%

2.18.1992

NH primary: Tsongas 33.2%, Clinton 24.8%, Kerrey 11.1%, Harkin 10.2%, Brown 8.0%

2.23.1992

ME caucus: Brown 30.3%, Tsongas 29.0%, Uncommitted 16.1%, Clinton 14.8%, Harkin 5.2%, Kerrey 3.0%

2.25.1992

SD primary: Kerrey 40.15%, Harkin 25.25%, Clinton 19.12%, Tsongas 9.6%, Brown 3.9%

3.3.1992

CO primary: Brown 29%, Clinton 27%, Tsongas 26%

GA primary: Clinton 57.2%, Tsongas 24.0%, Brown 8.1%, Kerry 4.8%, Uncommitted 3.8%, Harkin 2.1%

ID caucus: Harkin 29.7%, Tsongas 28.4%, Uncommitted 17.2%, Clinton 11.4%, Kerrey 8%, Brown 4.5%

MD primary: Tsongas 40.6%, Clinton 33.5%, Brown 8.2%, Uncommitted 6.4%, Harkin 5.8%, Kerrey 4.8%

MN caucus: Harkin 26.7%, Uncommitted 24.3%, Tsongas 19.2%, Clinton 10.3%, Brown 8.2%, Kerrey 7.6%

UT primary: Tsongas 33.4%, Brown 28.4%, Clinton 18.3%, Kerrey 10.9%, Harkin 4.0%

WA caucus: Tsongas 32.3%, Uncommitted 23.2%, Brown 18.6%, Clinton 12.6%, Harkin 8.2%, Kerrey 3.4%

3.5.1992

ND primary: Clinton 46.0%, Tsongas 10.3%, Brown 7.5%, Harkin 6.8%, Kerrey 1.2%

3.7.1992

AZ caucus: Tsongas 34.4%, Clinton 29.2%, Brown 27.5%, Harkin 7.6%

SC primary: Clinton 62.9%, Tsongas 18.3%, Harkin 6.6%, Brown 6.0%

As everyone keeps pointing out to me, that was a long, long time ago. Everything has changed completely. There is no point in even thinking about it, now.

Still, there is one important lesson to be learned from the past. By drawing out the primaries the way they did, the Democrats had far too much time to think about who they were voting for and they often voted for someone who wasn’t a winner. If Bill Clinton couldn’t win Iowa and New Hampshire, he had no business being the nominee. But, nobody told the voters or the press (who were fixated on Ross Perot at the time) so he managed to eke out the nomination when it was obvious that either Tom Harkin or Paul Tsongas should have run against George Bush.

It is a good thing we’ve learned from our mistakes. We won’t let that happen again.

As The Election Turns

The next time anybody starts reaching for their smelling salts because of negative campaigning, they should recognize that one of the main reasons politicians resort to it is because the flaccid political press corps will not cover anything that falls outside of their settled narrative unless it’s a deliciously vicious stab in the back. (And for reasons unknown they will cover Joe Lieberman as if he were a serious contender with endless droning televised interviews and serious examination of his performance in debates.) Other than that, it would appear that only a full-on, feral attack by rivals will shake their attention from the story they decide is the story that must be told.

The story of the Democratic campaign for the presidential nomination in 2003/2004 is “The Howard Dean Story.”

Whether he’s winning or losing, the plucky governor from Vermont and his erstwhile campaign manager are the only story they wish to tell. Even John Kerry, the man who looks as if he is going to sail through the nominating process without Democrats ever taking a real look at him, only exists as a sub-plot to the ever exciting “Dean Phenomenon.” (I realize that Kerry got skewered early last year, but the only people paying attention at the time were 3 bloggers and Ed Gillespie.)

The Dean rise and fizzle is an interesting story. But, the continuing obsessive attention it is getting is not only destroying Dean’s chances of coming back, it has ruined everyone else’s chances of getting any oxygen whatsoever. Kerry wins the nomination because he beat Dean in Iowa, period. The press framed the election in those terms and those terms seem to be propelling the voters to assume that this is the contest. Nobody else exists, except as they relate to Howard Dean.

(The big story of the debate last night, for instance, wasn’t the debate at all. It was the fact that Joe Trippi was going to speak out on Deborah Norville’s show following the debate. And, he delivered a soap opera worthy performance. And there is no greater sign that the tabloid artists are taking over the story then the appearance of Lisa “Gary Condit did it!” Depaulo. There she was, showing all of her noted objectivity practically delivering a big juicy lewinsky to Trippi, right there on TV. )

There is no oxygen left after that kind of thing. My favorite candidate, Wesley Clark, has apparently vaporized, for instance. Despite the fact that as of yesterday he held the lead in 3 of the 7 February 3rd primaries, was well in the mix in 2 others and had plenty of money to continue, the NY Times and Washington Post did not even acknowledge that he was at the debate last night in their first editions, although they quoted Lieberman and Kucinich at length. (I wrote to both papers and was informed that they would add something about him in later editions. They did; it was pathetic.)

I don’t think there is any malice or political bias, it’s just that Wesley Clark existed in their minds only as the Anti-Dean and, as such, is irrelevant in the current plotline of Dean the soap-opera and Kerry the juggernaut. They are obsessing on Dean’s demise from frontrunner to such an extent that they apparently see no necessity to examine Kerry’s questionable statements, gaffes and inconsistencies. (I think we can all say with some assurance that the Republicans will have no trouble making up for lost time on that count.)

Dean fucks up. Kerry wins. Let’s move on to the general election.

So, what should a candidate like John Edwards or Wesley Clark do in this situation? They both have good reasons to challenge John Kerry’s unexamined claim to electability. He represents, in many ways, a return to the 80’s for the Democrats and another round of liberal bashing on a scale we haven’t seen since Dukakis was derisively accused of being “a card carrying member of the ACLU.” (Most importantly, his appeal as a veteran is going to be shredded by the RNC in ways that already make me sick to my stomach.) Clark and Edwards are new faces who don’t have the tired familiarity and old fashioned bombastic rhetoric of a liberal Senator from Massachusetts (ohjayzuz) who has a record of voting, a personal life and a public statements so long that Rove can spoon out a psuedo scandal a day into the yawning maw of the political media until Kerry has been morphed into a bizarre combination of Hanoi Jane Donald Trump, Al Gore and Foghorn Leghorn.

Nonetheless, it looks like Kerry is poised to win, Dean is poised to be the goat and everybody else is poised to disappear because nobody can get their message out over the rank silliness of the media narrative — at the very time when people are actually paying attention and need the information.

So, the other candidates will go negative. It’s the only way to make the mediawhores look up from their soap opera scripts and sniff the air for something nasty and enticing. Once they do, of course, they will tut-tut about how sad and desperate it all is. But, they have no choice but to try to change the narrative and refocus the little lemmings in another direction. It’s not pretty, but I can’t see what other options exist.

Normally, I would not encourage the Democrats to go negative on each other. However, I think if they are going to do it, the time is now. If Kerry sweeps on Tuesday, the game is over before he has been properly tested. And, then we’re stuck. I like Kerry, and I voted for him in 1984. I’m a liberal, after all. But, he has got some general election weaknesses you can drive a semi through. The voters need to know this and he needs to show how he’s going to deal with them before we make this decision.

The Dean story has so overshadowed everything else, for good and ill, that the other candidates have not gotten a proper airing. If Kerry can take the kind of heat that Dean underwent, then he deserves to win. But, to let him win as a default is a grave mistake.

Ooooh, so that’s why they call them “mediawhores”

Final note from Sunday night: Which well-known “Fox Democrat” approached the comedians’ table and boasted about how much money Fox pays her? (Brought it up twice!) “That’s exactly what we’ve been saying,” one mordant wag later said.

Via the incomparable Daily Howler

Card Smarting

Regarding the post below, I thank those who wrote to fill me in on the meaning of Dean’s speech. I had read it, and the two articles I linked and was skeptical of the McCullough spin. However, I don’t think it was out of line for me to have had questions about Dean’s comments even though he made it clear that he was a believer in privacy rights. The substance of his remarks about this new technology was, at least, murky.

I realize it isn’t the biggest deal in the world and I don’t plan on making a crusade out of this. It’s just a hot button issue with me. I’m dead set against a national smart-card and I’m extremely resistant to using property rights (in the guise of copyrights) as an excuse to further encroach on individual liberty.

Having said that, it goes without saying that our civil liberties would be in much safer hands with Howard Dean in charge than Junior and the Calico Cat-Man. I never meant to suggest otherwise.

Dean On Individual Liberty

I just got a note from Charlie Stross asking if I knew anything about this. I confess I didn’t, but after reading the article, I am concerned. I’m one of those “left-libertarian” types on the political compass (I score in the same area as Noam Chomsky, if you can believe that) so privacy and civil liberties are a huge deal to me.

Do any of you internet Deaniacs out there have some information about this?

Dean’s current stand on privacy appears to leave little wiggle room: His campaign platform pledges unwavering support for “the constitutional principles of equality, liberty and privacy.”

Fifteen months before Dean said he would seek the presidency, however, the former Vermont governor spoke at a conference in Pittsburgh co-sponsored by smart-card firm Wave Systems where he called for state drivers’ licenses to be transformed into a kind of standardized national ID card for Americans. Embedding smart cards into uniform IDs was necessary to thwart “cyberterrorism” and identity theft, Dean claimed. “We must move to smarter license cards that carry secure digital information that can be universally read at vital checkpoints,” Dean said in March 2002, according to a copy of his prepared remarks. “Issuing such a card would have little effect on the privacy of Americans.”

Dean also suggested that computer makers such as Apple Computer, Dell, Gateway and Sony should be required to include an ID card reader in PCs–and Americans would have to insert their uniform IDs into the reader before they could log on. “One state’s smart-card driver’s license must be identifiable by another state’s card reader,” Dean said. “It must also be easily commercialized by the private sector and included in all PCs over time–making the Internet safer and more secure.”

This article indicates that there might be something more to the story. I reserve judgment. But, I’d like to hear from people who could shed some light on this.

My Fearless Primary Prediction

I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict with total confidence that today the people of New Hampshire are going to go into voting booths all over the state and vote for the candidate of their choice. The television pundits will begin to hint broadly at the winners at about 3pm eastern time based upon exit poll information they have promised not to share with the public until the polls close. Unable to help themselves, they will wink and nod and “let slip” all kinds of information to those who are watching closely.

Then, about 30 seconds after the designated closing time they will reveal the winner.

That’s my prediction.

Oh, you want winners and losers?

Well, my crystal ball is as foggy as always, but it looks as if the New England homeboys Kerry and Dean are going to come in 1st and 2nd, which is only noteworthy because both of them have already performed a Lazarus-like resurrection. Third or fourth are probably Clark/Edwards — which means that New Hampshire could have been predicted last fall with almost total accuracy.

The real story of New Hampshire is that Howard Dean has the humility, nimbleness and flexibility to learn from defeat and live to fight another day. He’s shown me more in his handling of the post Iowa bitch lap than he did in all the months of Deaniac fever. If he comes back strong tonight the slate is clean and he’s back in business.

One thing seems sure. The pundits’ pronouncements of inevitability or death should probably be seen as signs that the opposite is true. So far, they have written off Kerry, Dean and Edwards at least once and if Clark doesn’t take 3rd today he’s next. And so far, they have been wrong each time. The February 3rd race will probably show who has legs and who doesn’t, but tonight the pundits are going to make a bunch of premature pronouncements about all of the candidates that I guarantee are wrong. Their track record in this race so far is worse than I’ve ever seen it.

As I said before, I’m not afraid of a long primary fight. It’s the best show on TV. Bush is sinking in the polls (even the virtually guaranteed SOTU bounce didn’t happen) because he’s being shown up by all of our candidates as a gibberish babbling moron every time you see him speak. People had forgotten what president’s are supposed to sound like. We’re reminding them every day.

I say let’s keep it going for as long as possible. We can take the pressure and so can our candidates. You can’t buy this kind of exposure.

Ten Patriots

As we all sit on pins and needles today awaiting the outcome of a very exciting primary I think it would do us all good to take a step back and give a word of thanks to the ten Democrats who had the guts and the stamina to take on The Mighty Wurlitzer and all that that entails. You have to admire every single one of them for being willing to put themselves through the meatgrinder of modern politics, sacrificing their time, their families and personal reputations to face a shallow derisive media and a ruthless, highly motivated foe. They are patriots, one and all.

In putting themselves in the line of fire, these Democrats have finally changed the political narrative that seemed to be frozen in time after 9/11. They took on the Warrior King from every different angle – from Howard Dean’s brave dissent on the Iraq war to John Edwards’ brilliant assessment of Bush’s “war on work” to Kucinich’s erudite defense of liberalism to Clark’s scathing expert critique of Bush’s failed foreign policy to Kerry’s fighting words against the special interests to Sharpton’s witty prodding of Democrats’ consciences, to Carol Mosely-Braun’s smiling reminders of the concerns of women to Bob Graham’s important early assessment of the terrorism threat. The message is finally out there. The inexorable Bush juggernaut has been stopped.

All of these people have been out there making our case for us, getting the Democratic view before the people, reminding Americans that there is a different way, that there is a better way. They’ve challenged the prevailing storyline. People now see that they are not alone in mistrusting this administration. They realize that even though the press behaves as if Bush is invincible, there are many people in the country who beg to differ.

Most importantly, even though there are some frayed feelings between the various camps and we are all pulling for our candidates to prevail, it’s clear that these ten patriotic Americans have actually pulled the Democratic Party together. They gave us hope, they gave us inspiration and most of all they gave us our voice back. The Democratic position is once again getting equal time.

To all the Democratic candidates, each of whom has more intelligence, integrity, courage compassion and common sense in their little fingers than the entire Bush Administration combined — I salute you. I’d be proud to have any one of you as my president.

Cross posted on American Street where there are many interesting items to read. Go.

Oh My Goodness, Here’s Another One

President Bush defends drug addict and possible felon as “great american”:

XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT XXXXX FRI OCT 03, 2003 11:08:15 ET XXXXX

BUSH EXPRESSES SUPPORT OF LIMBAUGH; HOST TO RETURN TO AIRWAVES AT NOON; ENQUIRER HELD STORY FOR TWO YEARS

**Exclusive**

President Bush expressed support of radio star Rush Limbaugh in conversations with top staff on Thursday, a senior administration source told the DRUDGE REPORT.

“Rush is a great American,” the president said of the beleaguered host, who has championed the conservative movement for decades. “I am confident he can overcome any obstacles he faces right now.”

Limbaugh is to host his daily broadcast from New York City on Friday.

This is troubling. I’m afraid that I’m going to have to demand that President Bush at least distance himself from these remarks. He will definitely have to disavow the Oxycontin-popping, doctor-shopping, parking-lot drug scoring, “great American” at some point unless he is willing to be held accountable for Limbaugh’s drug use.

You can tell a lot about a man by his friends….

McAulife Rips Off His Tutu On National TV

From the Karl Rove “I wish I’d never told Fred Barnes to make a big deal out of this” department:

BLITZER: Terry McAuliffe, when Wesley Clark was on that stage with Michael Moore, one of his campaign supporters, and Moore called President Bush a deserter and General Clark refused to distance himself from that comment right away, was that a huge blunder? You don’t believe that President Bush was a deserter, do you?

MCAULIFFE: Well, Wolf, in order to to be a deserter, you have to actually show up.

Let’s just deal with the facts. As you know, when President Bush got out of college in 1968, it was at the height of the draft. It’s well known that the president, former president, used some of his influence to get George Bush into the Texas National Guard.

He then wanted to go to Alabama and work on a Senate campaign. So he went to Alabama for a year while he was in the National Guard, and he never showed up.

I mean, I would call it AWOL. You call it whatever you want. But the issue is the president did not show up for the year he was in Alabama, when he was supposed to show up for the National Guard.

BLITZER: All right.

MCAULIFFE: And I think that’s what Mr. Moore was trying to say.

GILLESPIE: Wolf…

BLITZER: Hold on one second. I’m going to let you respond.

But I want to make sure I heard you right. Are you saying you don’t dispute what Michael Moore was saying, branding the president of the United States as having been a deserter?

MCAULIFFE: He never should have called him a deserter. There are other issues that you can say — AWOL, just didn’t show up for duty. But he shouldn’t have called him a deserter. Let’s get out of this discourse in American politics. Let’s just deal with the facts.

BLITZER: All right.

MCAULIFFE: The facts are that George Bush didn’t show up when he was supposed to in the National Guard, and that’s just the fact.

But I wouldn’t call him a deserter, nor should anybody call the president a deserter.

GILLESPIE: Well, Wolf, I’m glad to hear Terry acknowledge that what Michael Moore said was reprehensible. But Terry’s wrong that the president was AWOL in the National Guard. That is not accurate. The president served honorably in the National Guard.

This is one of the — the Democrats throw these charges out there. They’re just completely inaccurate, and it’s unfortunate that they stoop to this kind of politics.

But we’re going to hear more of these kind of attacks against the president, personal attacks, because they don’t want to talk about their policies because their policies are wrong for America. Raising taxes, reducing our national security expenditures and making us weaker when it comes to winning the war against terror are the wrong policies for America. That’s the bottom line, and that’s why President Bush is going to be successful in November.

BLITZER: Ted Gillespie and Terry McAuliffe, we’ll leave it right there. But we’ll have both of you back. I understand both of you will be here in New Hampshire on Tuesday. You’ll probably be on one of our shows here on CNN. Thanks very much for joining us.

Quick … the smelling salts!

Now, there was a time when it was considered a-ok to call the president a rapist, a murderer and pervert and a traitor all within the space of one segment of Hardball, and there was nary a complaint. They drew pictures of his penis, psychoanalysed both him and his wife, accused them of sexual deviancy, assault and corruption on an epic scale.

But, that was a different time. Let the word go forth that we must all line up behind our Dear Leader and NEVER, EVER even hint that he is anything less than perfect. It’s treasonous, actually. Terry McAuliffe is obviously an enemy combatant who belongs in a 3×5 cell in Gitmo.

Bipartisan Disavowal Treatment

Peter Jennings, Tim Russert, Wolf Blitzer and others have been relentless in their pursuit of a proper repudiation of Michael Moore and his deserter comment from Wesley Clark.

As many of you know, I am a big believer in the newdisavowel movement in this country. Guilt by association is an excellent political shortcut and I’m all for it. As Peter Jennings said at the debate the other night, “You can tell a lot about a man by his friends.” Politicians, bloggers, supporters and others must realize that they are not only responsible for their own words, but they are responsible for their friends’ words as well. And, if anyone takes issue with your friends you must be prepared to defend or reject them on that basis alone. It’s the American way.

But, I do wonder if the media’s new insistence on taking responsibility for your supporters words is in danger of not being seen as fair and balanced and I think that would be such a shame. For instance, while I’m sure it’s nothing to worry about, I was struck that nobody seems to have asked the president about this:

Miller Emerges as New Voice for Bush Re-Election

Sat June 28, 2003 03:10 PM ET

CRAWFORD, Texas (Reuters) – A new voice has emerged in the re-election campaign of President Bush, that of Dennis Miller, who is gaining a reputation as a conservative comic by attacking Democrats with biting humor.

Miller flew on Air Force One from San Francisco to Los Angeles with the president on Friday, and later gave a stand-up routine at a Bush fund-raiser in Los Angeles.

“I spent an amazing couple of hours with Dennis Miller,” Bush said during his Los Angeles speech after Miller’s routine. “He keeps you on your toes.”

He added: “I was also honored to meet his wife, Carolyn. Like me, he married above himself. It may not be all that hard, in his case. But I’m proud to have his help.”

Miller, who was an analyst on ABC’s “Monday Night Football, had an HBO comedy show and does commentary for Fox News, adds a celebrity touch to Bush’s re-election campaign, much like actor Bruce Willis did in 1992 when Bush’s father ran for re-election.

Bush remained offstage until after Miller’s often caustic comic performance during the fund-raiser that drew in $3.5 million, most of it in $2,000 checks from 1,600 people.

For instance, he took aim at West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd, a Democratic elder statesmen who has questioned the Iraq war and its chaotic aftermath.

Even some in the crowd of Republican loyalists booed when Miller said of Byrd: “I think he must be burning the cross at both ends.”

Responding to the boos, Miller said: “Well, he was in the (Ku Klux) Klan. Boo me, but he was in the Klan.”

He likened the nine Democratic presidential candidates running to unseat Bush in 2004 to the 1962 New York Mets, perennial losers, and called them an “empty-headed scrum.”

He had a special barb for one candidate, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who has questioned the Iraq war, comparing him to Neville Chamberlain, the British prime minister who followed a policy of appeasement of Nazi Germany in the years before World War II.

“He can roll up his sleeves all he wants at public events, but as long as we see that heart tattoo with Neville Chamberlain’s name on his right forearms, he’s never going anywhere,” Miller said.

I would be hesitant to call this political hate speech and gawd knows, that Hitler ad that was on the Move-On web-site for 3 and a half minutes was shocking in its allusion to Bush and incipient naziism. But, it seems to me that the whole forearm tattoo reference to Chamberlain might also be seen as a bit tasteless as was the crossburning thing. I could be wrong. (Calling the Democratic candidates “empty headed scrum” is just fine, of course. Who doesn’t believe that?)

I realize that nothing could be worse than implying that our Codpiece in Chief is anything but brave and true and heroic, but I still think it could be said that the media aren’t holding him to the same standards if they don’t at least ask him if he thinks he might want to disavow Miller. He did spend time with him on Air Force One and he did say he was “proud to have his help….” after he made those comments.

I’m sure Bush will clear this right up in a hurry and everyone can get back to harrassing Democrats as it should be. It’s just a little housekeeping, that’s all.