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Author: Tom Sullivan

Place Your Bets

Any more like Massie on the back bench?

Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) is still working to secure enough votes to re-up his speakership despite the endorsement of the president-elect. The House votes to elect a speaker for the 119th Congress at noon today (Friday). With the GOP’s razor-thin margin, more than two defections can sink him.

The Hill:

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) affirmed his decision to not support Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) in the Speaker’s race, even if his colleague Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) would land a top spot on the House Rules Commitee. 

Massie was asked by former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a new host on One America News Network, if he would vote for Johnson if Roy would become the chairman of the influential committee.

“Oh no. You can pull all my fingernails out, you can shove bamboo up in them, you can start cutting off my fingers,” Massie responded late Thursday.

“I am not voting for Mike Johnson tomorrow, and you can take that to the bank,” he told his former colleague.

With Gaetz’s resignation last month, the GOP caucus has just 219 members, assuming they are all present. Johnson needs 218 votes if he expects to win on the first ballot. An acrimonous, weeks-long, Republican circus elected him to the post in October 2023.

Place your bets.

Is The Guard Finally Changing?

Chuck Schumer weighs in on DNC chair race

This is new (Politico):

Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer is endorsing Ben Wikler to lead the Democratic National Committee, a boost for the Wisconsin state party leader in a race that has drawn little attention and few big names.

Schumer’s endorsement — shared first with POLITICO — comes as Democrats prepare for a month-long campaign to run the DNC, with four candidate forums in January. Following the party’s bruising losses in November, members of the committee will elect their new chair on Feb. 1.

Schumer, the most prominent Democrat so far to weigh in publicly on the race, called Wikler a “tenacious organizer,” a “proven fundraiser” and a “sharp communicator” in a statement. He emphasized Wikler’s work in 2024, when Democrats in Wisconsin held on to their Senate seat and flipped 14 state legislative seats, even though Kamala Harris did not win the state.

“Ben has what Democrats need right now — proven results — and that’s why I’m backing Ben,” Schumer said.

Kudos to Wikler, 43, who I met in 2019. But the Democratic Party needs more than a solid field guy running the DNC.

There is a serious discusssion going on among friends about decades-old narratives deeply embedded in people’s preceptions of the country, their place in it, what Democrats have to offer, and whether people can even hear that offer, however well-crafted, amid the din of what early bloggers once called the right’s Mighty Wurlitzer. That’s a long-term challenge not easily addressed by swapping out personnel.

(Still, I can think of more than a few personnel I’d like to see Democrats swap out on Capitol Hill.)

After stinging losses like Democrats experienced in November, the finger-pointing and plethora of hot takes on what Democrats did wrong obscures what (and where) Democrats did right. That’s where Wisconsin comes in, as Peter Slevin writes at The New Yorker. “How Much Do Democrats Need To Change?” reads the headline. Not that much, if they emulate Wisconsin (or North Carolina, I’d argue; emphasis mine):

The mood among Democrats on a December morning in the Wisconsin state capitol was celebratory. Ten Assembly candidates—among them a school administrator, a tavern owner, an accountant, and a county politician—had flipped Republican seats after the state Supreme Court threw out a heavily gerrymandered map. “I am super excited. Who else is super excited?” Representative Lisa Subeck, the caucus chair, said. Some of the newly elected spoke about what they hope to deliver: affordable housing, broadband, clean energy, and more money for public schools. One said he wants to show “that government can be a force for good.”

In addition to the Assembly candidates, four Democratic state Senate candidates won Republican-held seats. Though the G.O.P. still controlled the state legislature, its margins narrowed significantly. Further up the ticket, Senator Tammy Baldwin, a widely liked Democrat, won a third term. Though Kamala Harris lost her Presidential bid, the popular vote, and seven swing states to Donald Trump, the message—even in Wisconsin, which Harris lost—is not so straightforward. The same is true in North Carolina, where Harris was defeated by Trump but Democrats swept the other six statewide races. Of the five battleground states where a Senate race was on the ballot, Democrats won four, losing only Pennsylvania’s, and that one by a mere fifteen thousand votes, or 0.2 per cent. Looked at another way: Donald Trump won the national popular vote, but if one hundred and fifteen thousand of the eight million Trump voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania had voted instead for Harris, she would be headed to the White House.

“I’m not setting fire to any playbooks around here,” says Ryan Spaude, 30. He flipped a Republican-held seat near Green Bay. “We nudged this district to the left on a day when the whole country was moving to the right,” adding that an idological pivot is not what’s needed.

“Just tell working folks how you’re going get more money in their pockets,” says Ryan Spaude. Telling working folks is the rub. Democrats have no billionaire owned and funded Wurlitzer.

Rebecca Cooke who lost her bid for WI-3 by three points thinks national Democrats have a branding problem. If so, it is among their problems.

Organizer Bill Hogseth thinks branding is not it exactly:

What struck him most as he knocked on doors this year was how few voters even mentioned the Presidential race. “I can count on my hand the times where I heard people say, ‘Well, hopefully So-and-So gets elected and then this will change,’ ” he told me. “More often than not, it was, ‘Something needs to happen in my local community,’ ‘We need to take on the landlords,’ or ‘There needs to be rent control.’ ”

Wikler’s influence and staffing a year-round organizing effort has been what’s pivotal.

Donald Trump plans to upend government within hours of his inauguration. He’ll pardon Jan. 6th convicts and arrestees and launch a deportaion program that will besmirch whatever positive brand America has left in the world.

That will be followed by a raft of other combative moves, including a Republican attempt to extend the 2017 tax cuts that favored corporations and the wealthy. As Wikler put it, “We’re about to have a big defining battle that gives us a chance to show who we are.”

Same-old at the DNC won’t cut it. Even Schumer seems to understand that. There is too much focus on what Democrats (Harris) might have done wrong in an otherwise impressive short-schedule campaign, and too little being learned from states where things went right and why.

About Those Two Incidents

Coincidences or not?

Screen cap via KTHV-TV.

As authorities investigate Wednesday’s New Orleans truck attack on Bourbon Street and the Cybertruck explosion in front of the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, one odd detail links the two. Or doesn’t. Both vehicles were rented using the peer-to-peer rental app, Turo.

Axios reports that Clark County/Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Sheriff Kevin McMahill said “there was no immediate indication of a connection between the two events, but ‘we are investigating every aspect of this.’ “

The New York Times reports:

The owner of the Ford pickup truck used in New Orleans recognized his vehicle when he saw footage showing the truck and license plate on the news. He had rented the truck to a 42-year-old Army veteran who then used it to ram into crowds on Bourbon Street, killing at least 15 people and injuring dozens more.

[…]

In Las Vegas, the police said during a news conference that the Tesla Cybertruck that exploded outside the Trump Hotel’s lobby entrance, killing one and injuring at least seven others, was also rented from Turo. Officials called it a “coincidence” and said they were continuing to investigate any possible connections.

The driver in the New Orleans attack, identified as Texas-born Shamsud-Din Jabbar, was killed in a shootout with police.

In another blurb from The New York Times:

The Army veteran who rammed a pickup into New Year’s revelers on Bourbon Street was “inspired by” the Islamic State terrorist organization, President Biden said Wednesday night in a short address from Camp David. In videos posted to social media shortly before the attack in New Orleans that killed at least 15, the man indicated that he had a “desire to kill,” Mr. Biden said.

Elon Musk and Tesla are issuing statements and doing spin control, as is Eric Trump, executive vice president of the Trump Organization.

Turo issued a statement saying, “We do not believe that either renter involved in the Las Vegas and New Orleans attacks had a criminal background that would have identified them as a security threat.” The company is cooperating with the FBI on the New Orleans investigation, reports the Associated Press.

That’s two coincidences

A Colorado man rented the Cybertruck and drove it to Las Vegas. Police were still working on extracting the body late Wednesday. Like Shamsud-Din Jabbar, Matthew Livelsberger of Colorado Springs was an Army veteran. He was 37.

Denver7 fills in some details:

The driver of the Tesla Cybertruck that exploded in front of a Las Vegas hotel on New Year’s Day has been identified as an Army veteran who lived in Colorado Springs, multiple informed sources told Denver7 Investigates.

Those sources tell Denver7 the driver was Matthew Livelsberger, who has multiple Colorado Springs addresses associated to him. FBI agents were staking out one of those addresses on Marksheffel Road late Wednesday awaiting a search warrant.

Make that three coincidences

Denver7 adds this:

Late Wednesday, Denver7 Investigates learned that Livelsberger served at the same Army base as Shamsud-Din Jabbar, the suspect in a New Orleans truck rampage hours earlier.

A lot of people serve in the Army. There is no reporting that Shamsud-Din Jabbar and Matthew Livelsberger served at the same base at the same time. Authorities and reporters are scouring the men’s social media accounts for evidence of motive and/or radicalization.

Newsweek:

Jeremy Schwartz, acting FBI Special Agent in Charge for the Las Vegas office, at a news conference: “I know you have a lot of questions.”

“We don’t have a lot of answers,” he added.

Trump Knows

He’s the smartest broke billionaire in the room

No superlatives are too bigly to describe El Caudillo del Mar-a-Lago.

Trump knows competence

“I always felt we have to have the most competent people in our country. We need competent people. We need smart people coming into our country.” It takes a very stable genius to recognize other extraordinary people like RFK Jr. and foreign models.

Reporter: Why did you change your mind on H1B visas?Trump: I didn’t change my mind. I always felt we have to have the most competent people in our country. We need competent people. We need smart people coming into our country. We need a lot of people coming in.

Acyn (@acyn.bsky.social) 2025-01-01T02:21:31.702Z

Trump knows social media

Days ago, Trump filed an amicus brief on his desire to rescue TikTok from the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act that will likely ban the app in the U.S. on January 19. Even the Wall Street Journal found Trump’s argument preposterous. He wants the Court to treat him (a private citizen) as though he’s co-president with Joe Biden before being sworn in (Raw Story):

“The brief is extraordinary in several ways, none of them good,” the board said, later adding: “Mr. Trump wants the Court to treat him as if he’s already President before he’s inaugurated.”

Trump for all intents and purposes is a “private citizen” until he’s inaugurated, the board countered. He is also in essence “asking the Justices to let him rewrite a law he doesn’t like,” it added.

Trump, the board said, “instructs the Court that he deserves this power because he won the election and is a wizard on social media. Really, that’s his claim.”

No kidding (from the brief): “President Trump is one of the most powerful, prolific, and influential users of social media in history.” Plus, “President Trump alone possesses the consummate dealmaking expertise, the electoral mandate, and the political will to negotiate a resolution to save the platform while addressing the national security concerns…”

Who can argue with that?

Trump knows who’s boss

“Trump is a little guy, and Musk is a big guy when it actually comes to having money,” historian Timothy Snyder tells The Guardian. “And I think if you were a friend of Trump, you would be worried.”

“I think we overestimate Trump and we underestimate Musk,” Snyder said. “People can’t help but think that Trump has money, but he doesn’t. He’s never really had money. He’s never even really claimed to have money. His whole notion is that you have to believe that he has money. But he’s never been able to pay his own debts. He’s never been able to finance his own campaigns.

“Musk, with an amount of money that was meaningless to him, was able to finance Trump’s campaign, essentially.”

Trump married his wives for their curb appeal. He married Musk for the money.

“Unless Trump breaks it off right now, he’s going to be in this kind of dependent relationship for the rest of the way, because you get used to people giving you money … and I think if you were a friend of Trump, you would be worried.”

But then, Trump has no friends. Everything in his life is transactional. Now Musk is the biggest transactor in the room.

We’ve all wondered when Trump will die from his fast food diet. Maybe he’ll die from a broken heart when Elon dumps him.

Big Yellow Kleptocracy

You don’t know what you got ’til it’s gone

People with higher profiles have warned what could happen to this country under Donald Trump if he were reelected to the White House. I did so myself in 2024 here and here and here. Those three posts all referenced Michael Lewis’s “The Fifth Risk,” his celebration of selfless dedication, essentially, in public service by geeks more interested in mission than in money. Blasphemy!

In a few short weeks, America will embark on a journey into the unknown. Dave Neiwert published “Alt America” in 2017 about the rise of the eliminationist alt-right movement. Trumpism, an expression of that movement, seeks not only to eliminate non-white immigrants but those very civil servants who make the nation you know the nation you know.

Stephen E. Hanson and Jeffrey S. Kopstein consider what it means that Trump 2.0 will be staffed with incompetents and cronies chosen more for their loyalty to one man than to stewardship of the republic that will be 250 years old in 18 months. What Trump and those backing him intend for this country is not new, inventive, or an improvement on popular sovereignty. They intend “an assault on the modern state as we know it” by figures committed to its undoing (New York Times gift link):

Eviscerating modern state institutions almost always clears a path for a different type of political order, one built on personal loyalties and connections to the ruler. The German sociologist Max Weber had a word for this type of regime: patrimonialism, based on the arbitrary rule of leaders who view themselves as traditional “fathers” of their nations and who run the state as a family business of sorts, staffed by relatives, friends and other members of the ruler’s “extended household.”

Social scientists thought that patrimonialism had been relegated to the dustbin of history. And for good reason: Such regimes couldn’t compete militarily or economically with states led by the expert civil services that helped make modern societies rich, powerful and relatively secure.

But a slew of self-aggrandizing leaders has taken advantage of rising inequality, cultural conflicts and changing demography to grab power. The result has been a steep decline in the government’s ability to provide essential services such as health care, education and safety.

My gripe here is with patrimonialism, ten-dollar word for cronyism and/or nepotism.

Trump 2.0 will not actually downsize the alleged “deep state.” They will repurpose departments run by the sort of public servants Lewis met that are the “foundations of both public and private life” and make them serve Dear Leader’s and his billionaire buddies’ bottom lines.

Hanson and Kopstein conclude, “The threat we face is different, and perhaps even more critical: a world in which the rule of law has given way entirely to the rule of men.”

I’ve long described men like Trump, Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, the Koch network, and their ilk as members of the Midas cult. They believe like Midas that everything that might be turned into gold should be. Their bottomless greed, like Midas’s will kill the golden goose that brought them riches and bring them to ruin. But perhaps not before they ruin the rest of us. They will, as Hanson and Kopstein observe, destroy “the predictable enforcement of laws essential to modern capitalism.”

My warning to the kleptocrats and kakistocrats and to American voters who handed them the keys to our government is the timeless lesson of Midas: be careful what you wish for.

Kaecilius: What have you done?
Dr. Stephen Strange: I made a bargain.
Kaecilius: What is this?
Dr. Stephen Strange: Well, it’s everything you’ve ever wanted. Eternal life as part of the One. You’re not gonna like it.
[Kaecilius and his Zealots are sucked into the Dark Dimension]
Dr. Stephen Strange: Yeah, you know, you really should have stolen the whole book because the warnings… The warnings come after the spells.
[Wong laughs]

Happy New Virus!

From H1B to H5N1

Avian influenza A H5N1 virus particles (gold). Image via CDC and NIAID.

We move now from the MAGA civil war over H1B visas to the H5N1 bird flu. (It’s getting hard to keep the abbreviations straight without a bound reference.)

CDC:

December 18, 2024— A patient has been hospitalized with a severe case of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus (“H5N1 bird flu”) infection in Louisiana. This marks the first instance of severe illness linked to the virus in the United States. The case was confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday, December 13. Since April 2024, there have been a total of 61 reported human cases of H5 bird flu reported in the United States.

[…]

A sporadic case of severe H5N1 bird flu illness in a person is not unexpected; avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection has previously been associated with severe human illness in other countries during 2024 and prior years, including illness resulting in death. No person-to-person spread of H5 bird flu has been detected. This case does not change CDC’s overall assessment of the immediate risk to the public’s health from H5N1 bird flu, which remains low.

No need to panic. Donald Trump will be in the White House again on January 20. And a pale horse will be loose in the Department of Health and Human Services. He’s set to “go wild on health.” So, no worries.

Unless you own cattle in California (The Independent):

A dozen more dairy herds in California have been stricken with bird flu as the virus continues to infect animals and humans around the U.S.

Nearly 700 herds in the state — or 71 percent of all herds — have caught H5N1 since late August, forcing Governor Gavin Newsom to declare a state of emergency and the government to announce new testing.

While California, the nation’s top milk-producing state, has the most infections in dairy herds, more infections were reported in Michigan, and the number of confirmed human cases has inched closer to 70, according to health officials.

A virus sample from the infected person in Louisiana, the CDC announced after Christmas, showed signs of genetic mutations. One of them was found in a teenager in British Columbia in November who was in critical condition for weeks.

Intelligencer asked Dr. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan, for her assessment of the potential risk. She believes the mutations occured in the patient over the course of the infection and not in the wild. “So it was unlikely to be transmitted onto another person, and it’s not actually emerging in the birds that this person became infected by,” she advised:

I don’t know what it would take to turn H5N1 into a pandemic virus, and I don’t think anybody does. I can’t say when or if it will happen. I mean, it’s something that could happen tomorrow, and it’s something that could never happen. But the chances of it happening are continuing to increase, and that’s what gives me cause for a lot of concern.

Don’t handle dead or sick birds, for starters. Or drink raw milk. Avoid bird droppings, etc.

As a virologist, do you think this feels like a slow-motion disaster unfurling?
It feels like a slow-motion disaster. The cattle outbreak has spread far and wide. We still don’t know how many cows and herds are affected. There are some states where there’s been almost no testing, so we may well see new states popping up on that positive map. There’s no way that you can contain an outbreak if you don’t know the full scale and scope of that outbreak.

Adding to the problem, there are multiple genotypes of the virus circulating. The case in Louisiana was associated with birds, which is different from the cattle virus. It’s not that big of a distinction to the general public, but what that means is that there are essentially multiple sources of this virus. So you could get it from cows, but you could also get it from birds. You could get it from domestic birds, or you could get it from wild birds. In fact, that’s how a lot of the domestic poultry operations are getting infected, because wild birds fly in there and the next thing you know, you’re having to cull a flock. So there’s a lot of the virus around just in nature. It’s also now getting into wild mammals, including ones that live in close proximity to people, like skunks and foxes and raccoons. It’s also getting into pets. It just feels like there are so many different pathways for this to go terribly wrong.

Mark Sumner at Uncharted Blue cautions:

This is not the time to panic and begin stocking up on toilet paper and canned goods. However, it may be an excellent time to make sure you following the news (no matter how unpleasant that is these days), have a supply of masks, and are prepared to deal with a return of “social distancing.”

The big problem may be that, if H5N1 does break through into the human population, almost everything that comes next is heavily dependent on the government response–a government response that’s set to be determined by Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Robert Kennedy Jr.

And unless there’s an outbreak of responsibility and common sense in the MAGA GOP when and if an H5N1 outbreak occurs, we’ll have a pale horse loose in the DHS and Panama Orange holding daily briefings again in the White House Press Briefing Room.

Have a stiff one this New Year’s Eve.


This Means War!

MAGA GOP in disarray

So NOW reparations are on the table. When they’re presumed for Americans of a certain hue (Daily Beast):

Steve Bannon escalated the MAGA civil war Monday by calling for ‘reparations’ for Americans for losing out to immigrants on H-1B visas–who should themselves, he said, be deported.

Bannon repeatedly railed against the program—and billionaire Elon Musk, who backs the visas—on Monday’s War Room, asking guests including conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer and former-Democrat-turned-MAGA-backer Allison Huynh whether Musk understood the visas were a “scam.”

H-1B visas, which allow U.S. companies to hire highly skilled foreign workers for specialty jobs, were signed into law as part of the Immigration Act of 1990 by President George H.W. Bush, a Republican. President-elect Donald Trump said on Saturday he supported the program.

See, this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part! And Steve Bannon is just the guy to do it.

“The workers that are here on H-1B visas should be deported at the same time we’re deporting the 15 million illegal aliens Biden brought across the border to suppress wages to low-income workers,” Bannon said. “American workers should be hired immediately to fill those gaps, and then we should start the discussions on reparations, on what they knowingly did to American tech workers.”

Government requiring that people wear face masks during a deadly pandemic is tyranny. Government dictating that private employers hire less-skilled workers for specialty jobs and paying them reparations puts America first. Not that there’s anything central-planning about that.

Sociopathic overlords

Capitalists, Bannon railed, “always wanna go to the lowest-cost production.” Bannon the reactionary means to nip capitalism in the bud (Crooks & Liars):

“This is just about a compensation in indentured servants, basically quasi-slave labor in our own country by the enlightened oligarchs of Silicon Valley,” he continued. “This is like the Borgias or the Medici’s from Renaissance Italy, kind of these nation-states where Silicon Valley and these oligarchs are the feudal lords or the, as Ben Harnwell says, sociopathic overlords.”

[…]

“They bring indentured servants over here,” he said. “So you’re gonna be an indentured servant, just like many of our great, great grandparents did coming in the 19th century, before we broke indentured servitude. And we’re gonna break it here.”

“There need to be massive reparations from the sociopathic overlords,” he added.

Kris Goldsmith, the neo-Nazi hunter next door and founder of the Task Force Butler Institute, believes the Musk v. Bannon fight inside MAGA is a bigger phenomenon than many realize. Bannon built “a popular movement around right-wing extremist white nationalism.” Trump was a tool. Bannon, Goldsmith believes, could provoke the MAGA base to turn on Trump over the immigration issue Trump has run on from the moment he rode down his golden escalator.

@krisgoldsmith85 The MAGA Civil War isn’t about the base vs. billionaires. It’s Steve Bannon vs. Elon Musk. And Bannon will win. #CapCut #MAGA #DOGE #oligarchy #elon #elonmusk #trump #vicepresidenttrump #immigration #presidentelonmusk #h1b #h1bvisa #h1bvisas #vivek #vivekramasamy #stevebannon #warroom #bannon @Walter Masterson @David🤙🏽Boomer @CFH unfiltered @just-a-little-off-grid2 @MeidasTouch @The Ken Harbaugh Show ♬ original sound – Kristofer Goldsmith

The Republican Party already looks ungovernable, suggests a former GOP lawmaker. What does the MAGA civil war means for the reelection of Speaker Mike Johnson?

Another post from Daily Beast:

“When you look at people like the Chip Roys, the Tom Massies, the Andy Harrises; they drink their own bathwater. They don’t really drink Trump’s bathwater,” former GOP lawmaker Denver Riggleman explained on Bloomberg TV. “A lot of people call the Freedom Caucus a Trump protection caucus. But in reality, there are people there that are very idealistic, right? They’re ideologues, and they’re also going to do their own thing… I don’t think it guarantees Mike Johnson the speakership at all.”

Riggleman said the first day of Congress on Friday was going to be “miserable,” and he pointed out that this would be the easy part. Once they actually try to pass some laws in the deadlocked House, he said: “Legislation’s gonna be a sh–show.”

But you knew that.


Panama Orange

Sure, let’s talk about that canal

Screenshot from YouTube video at the Panama Canal Authority site.

everybody’s looking out for him
’cause they know red’s satisfies
little girls love to listen to him
sing and tell sweet lies

New Riders of the Purple Sage – Panama Red Lyrics

Hey, let’s “acquire” Greenland and invade Panama!

Donald Trump is skilled at stoking grievance and earning himself media hits. He’ll need to now that Elon Musk is stealing his spotlight. So ahead of violating his oath of office again the moment he utters it, Trump is talking smack about real estate he’d like to acquire in his second term. Trump doesn’t know much, but he knows real estate, how to distract the media (away from casting his reality-show second term), and exclusive clubs.

Only Trump can make Jimmy Carter’s passing about himself and his “very exclusive club.”

Brian Tyler Cohen (@briantylercohen.bsky.social) 2024-12-29T22:37:28.678Z

James Fallows thinks Panama Orange’s tiny-violin musings about Panama treating America unfairly is more make-believe from Trump:

This rhetoric comes from the same place as his claims that migrants are bringing in deadly fentanyl (they aren’t), that public schools authorize gender-change surgery (they don’t), or that regulation has crippled the US oil industry (which is producing more than ever before). It’s based on lies; it’s designed to make his followers mad; and it works.

Like Pavlov’s MAGAs, it works. The media salivates at hearing the grievance bell ring just as readily.

The chance of the US forcibly (or in other ways) “taking back” the Canal is zero. The next time you hear this idea, put it in the category of other make-believe Trump threats and promises. These range from his promise to end the warfare in Ukraine “in one day,” to his threat to slap a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, the US’s two largest trading partners. Or even the Musk-Ramaswamy fantasy of cutting trillions in “fat” from the federal budget.

None of these claims is meant to happen, in the first day or the first year. Their purpose is to work partisans up right now.

Since the days of Rush Rooms and before OxyContin, movement conservative puppet-masters addicted generations of Republican foot soldiers to a daily endorphin hit. A hissy fit over some liberal “outrage” here, blamethrowing directed at some caste disfavored by white America there.

Fallows, however, focuses on just what a triumph of diplomacy the Jimmy Carter administration negotiated with the Panama Canal treaties of 1977-78 and the “shrewd” courage it took to ratify them. (Fallows recommends a couple accounts of the debates and contentious issues at the time.)

But Fallows also sees Trump’s grievance-based focus on the canal as a way to bring attention to the impacts of climate change:

The managers of the Canal say that what they have to sell the world is not transportation but water. Every ship that travels the 50-plus miles from ocean to ocean through the Canal requires some 50 million gallons of fresh water.

That’s how much it takes to raise a ship from sea level, in the Caribbean or the Pacific, up through multiple locks to Gatun Lake in the middle of the isthmus. The lake is 78 feet above sea level; after reaching it, from either direction, the ships then descend through locks down to sea level on the other side. Every drop of that water to fill the locks comes from rainfall in the largely forested land in the Canal’s watershed.

Savvy readers can see where this is going.

Over time, this watershed, like so many others, is becoming hotter and drier. Over time, many of these surrounding forests, where not officially protected, are being cut down, paved, and developed or turned into cattle-grazing land. Thus the Canal authorities have put themselves at the center of a struggle to protect their business interests by preserving, and even trying to expand, what is also a globally crucial reservoir of biodiversity.

Shorter Fallows: No water, no canal. So let Panama Orange fume about imaginary unfairness. Fallows sees Trump’s Panama rhetoric as a path to “global discussions of sustainability. I hope some people now thinking about Panama will reach the same conclusion.”

Bring it on.


Carter Led By Example

Quietly and with little fanfare (1924-2024)

What more can one say about President Jimmy Carter? I lack the words. Let me borrow a few from Jonathan Alter, biographer of “a formidable, complex man” writing at Washington Monthly:

He was the first American president since Thomas Jefferson who could reasonably claim to be a Renaissance Man or at least a world-class autodidact. At various times in his life, he acquired the skills of a farmer, naval officer, electrician, sonar technologist, nuclear engineer, businessman, equipment designer, agronomist, master woodworker, Sunday School teacher, land-use planner, legislator, door-to-door missionary, governor, long-shot presidential candidate, U.S. president, diplomat, fly-fisherman, bird dog trainer, arrowhead collector, home builder, painter, professor, memoirist, poet, novelist, and children’s book author—an incomplete list, as he would be happy to point out.

That’s when Carter wasn’t defending democracy around the world or working to eradicate the Guinea worm and river blindness, Brian Klaas reminds us:

The Carter Center, the NGO that he founded in 1982, has been a crucial force for good, known primarily for its work on successfully promoting democracy and providing high-quality election monitoring across the globe. It deserves that reputation.

I’ll spare you the description of infection by the parasite. But Carter’s success at eradicating infections were dramatic:

Before Carter got involved, Guinea Worm was prevalent in 21 countries, infecting at least 3.5 million people per year. Today, that figure is down to just 13 cases per year. It’s a reduction of 99.99% in just a few decades, making it one of the most successful public health interventions in history. 

[…]

Similarly, the Carter Center has done tremendous work at tackling onchocerciasis, or river blindness. That disease comes from black fly bites, and it’s prevalent in 31 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa. Again, it’s a largely neglected disease, despite the fact that just shy of 20 million people are currently infected, with about a million of them having lost their vision due to the infection.

The Carter Center has provided hundreds of millions of rounds of treatment for river blindness, drastically alleviating avoidable suffering. It doesn’t generate headlines, nor is it usually mentioned as a core part of Carter’s reputation in American political discourse, but had Jimmy Carter not decided to devote his efforts to these programs, millions more people would have been needlessly blinded by a devastating parasite.

I’ve bristled for years when conservatives sneered at Carter and his legacy in office. Those sneers speak volumes about their values and little about Carter. He was a lucky man but an unlucky president, his accomplishments obscured by what might have been, writes James Fallows, a veteran of the Carter White House:

Probably only a country as near-impossible to lead as the United States of that time could have given someone like Jimmy Carter a chance to lead it.

Despite it all, Carter had broader support during his first year in office than almost any of his successors, except briefly the two Bushes in wartime emergencies. Despite it all, most reckonings have suggested that Carter might well have beaten Ronald Reagan, and held on for a second term, if one more helicopter had been sent on the “Desert One” rescue mission in Iran, or if fewer of the helicopters that were sent had failed. Or if, before that, Teddy Kennedy had not challenged Carter in the Democratic primary. Or if John Anderson had not run as an independent in the general election. What if the ayatollah’s Iranian government had not stonewalled on negotiations to free its U.S. hostages until after Carter had been defeated? What if, what if.

Carter claimed for years that he came within one broken helicopter of reelection. It’s plausible. We’ll never know.

But perhaps one lesson from the Carter presidency Democrats (and Joe Biden today) have yet to learn is that humility is a negative on the national and world stages. Bluster draws eyeballs and inpsires undeserved confidence. Competence and caring? Not so much.


Didn’t We Hear This About Trump?

Sununu: [Musk is] so rich he’s so removed from the potential financial influence

Donald Trump sold himself as so rich that he couldn’t be bought. He would spend $600 million of his own money to win the presidency. “I mean, part of the beauty of me is that I’m very rich,” he told ABC in 2011. And in the fullness of time, the man sold NFTs of himself and Trump sneakers and Trump Bibles and Trump scents.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) reassures CNN’s Dana Bash that Elon Musk is incorruptible like that. He’s got both hands in the Trump 2.0 administration, sure. But he’s not “doing it for the money.” He’s not into making money for the money but for the betterment of all mankind. Musk loves mankind from which “he’s so removed.” It’s people he can’t stand. How dare we ask him to pay more in taxes to benefit them?

BASH: One of the concerns is that Elon Musk has billions tied up in govt contracts. You don't see a conflict of interest?CHRIS SUNUNU: Everyone has a conflict of interestBASH: But that's a pretty big oneSUNUNU: He's so rich he's removed from the potential financial influence

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2024-12-29T14:47:39.372Z

Three years ago, Paul Krugman wrote (gift link):

Elon Musk doesn’t think visionaries like him should pay taxes the way little people do. After all, why hand over his money to dull bureaucrats? They’ll just squander it on pedestrian schemes like … bailing out Tesla at a crucial point in its development. Musk has his sights set on more important things, like getting humanity to Mars to “preserve the light of consciousness.”

Billionaires, you see, tend to be surrounded by people who tell them how wonderful they are and would never, ever suggest that they’re making fools of themselves.

But don’t you dare make fun of Musk. Billionaires’ money gives them a lot of political clout — enough to block Democratic plans to pay for much-needed social spending with a tax that would have affected only a few hundred people in a nation of more than 300 million. Who knows what they might do if they think people are snickering at them?

[…]

What I suspect, although I can’t prove it, is that what really drives someone like Musk is an insecure ego. He wants the world to acknowledge his unequaled greatness; taxing him like a “$400,000-a-year working Wall Street stiff” (my favorite line from the movie “Wall Street”) would suggest that he isn’t a unique treasure, that maybe he indeed doesn’t deserve everything he has.

Sununu should be embarrassed to make this argument in public. Should be.