Author: Tom Sullivan

“Just a normal human”

Something has shifted. Not completely shifted. But shifted.

You see it in the polling. Donald Trump’s support is cratering. His legitimacy is draining away.

Our friend Darcy Burner explains:

For the most part, people stop at red lights even when there is no cop in sight. They stop because they accept that traffic laws make sense, that the system is fair enough, that the rules apply to them the way they apply to everyone else. Multiply that by every American filing a tax return, every soldier following an order, every bank honoring a check, every foreign central bank parking its savings in U.S. Treasuries. None of that is force. All of it is built on consent, on the consent of the governed.

Consent is what makes force cheap.

It is the legitimacy subsidy that runs underneath every powerful regime in history, and it is the most undervalued asset on any government’s balance sheet. With it, you can run a country on a normal-sized police force and borrow money at four percent. Without it, you need East German numbers of secret police and you pay fourteen percent.

Force at full price is ruinously expensive.

Trump is ruined. He’ll never admit it, but it’s true. “He is not consolidating power,” Burner writes. “He is spending the subsidy that made his power cheap, and he is spending it fast.”

Five rush hours a week, I see it out on the streets and the overpass where Sign Guy performs since Trump attacked Iran and sent fuel prices soaring. I wrote up an incident report last night for organizers of a weekly street-corner sign protest:

I’ve seen a marked increase in middle fingers in the weeks since Trump attacked Iran. And of course they’re braver about it when I’m out there solo. I’ve noticed that these betrayed MAGAs are easily triggered. But tonight was highly unusual. 

Along with the usual honks, waves, and hand signs, the posing for pictures on the bridge and the passersby thanking me, this happened tonight.

Moderately heavy westbound traffic about 5:15 pm. A logo’d work truck in the fast lane. I didn’t catch the name (might have been a personal company). One driver, and one passenger (pretty sure). 

Going about 35 mph, the driver opens his door, steps out onto the running board, and screams at me over the roof, “Get off the bridge, you fucking asshole! … something something.” 

I watched over my shoulder to make sure the truck didn’t take the next downtown exit, planning to double back. 

My sign this week simply reads: PLAN NOW FOR YOUR $5/GAL STAYCATION

Sign Guy deliberately avoids mentioning parties, personalities or policies. But that’s not enough to ward off misdirected anger. The MAGAs know Trump has betrayed them. And they really resent any reminders, even oblique ones. Except perhaps among fellow MAGAs.

About that, Open Letters by Mersault recently infiltrated a MAGA focus group with intent to disrupt. Turns out, disruption was unnecessary. The 11 subjects and one imposter were on the same page.

“What letter grade would you give Trump?” the moderator asked. Final tally: 6 Ds, 6 Fs.

Economic Pain is Central

“When I see the price of groceries and gas, I want to scream.”

“Food and fuel prices are skyrocketing. Absolutely outrageous.”

“We go to Walmart every week. The exact same items increased exponentially every single time.”

“My main concern is inflation. The prices for food and gas.”

“We go to war in Iran and the prices just keep going up… but my bank account is shrinking.”

“It is affecting us personally.”

“I can’t even afford daycare.”

“I want to be a stay-at-home mom, but I have to work… how do you do all those things?”

“The job market… opportunities are very hard right now.”

“My mom’s on Social Security, and she worked for the federal government for 25 years. She does have Medicare and that doesn’t mean she’s a, what do you call it, freeloader. And Trump was like, oh we don’t have money. What did he say? We don’t have money for this anymore? I almost rolled over. I was like, are you kidding me? People pay into this so that they can retire… she’s 73, she can’t get a job now, you know.”

About that congressionally unsanctioned Iran war:

The Iran War Is a Failure

What they said:

“The war in Iran is unnecessary. My brother was in the Marines. I wouldn’t want him to die for this… it doesn’t have anything to do with us.”

“What happened to America first? Let’s take car of our own before we start blowing up other countries.”

“He actually said we needed to get over it… and he was very flippant… ‘we don’t have money… we’re at war’… I was like, are you kidding me?”

“First and foremost, I wholly 100% disagree with what’s going on with Iran… it’s been a disaster and completely contradictory to what he ran on… no more wars. Propaganda machine at its absolute finest…”

“I’m just intellectually insulted by being told… by Fox News… that this was justified.”

“It’s so much like a war for oil… like the speech last night said, if we’re producing all this oil and all this energy, so why do we care what goes on over there?”

“I’m very disappointed right now with the war in Iran… and how he treats our allies in Europe.”

“It’s about the integrity we used to have as a country… we used to be able to have diplomacy and negotiate and not bomb the negotiators… And I just kind of feel like we have slid… now we’re the country you can’t trust… we used to be the good guys.”

“All of the… foreign affairs… the way that he speaks and certain actions that he takes… in some senses, I regret my vote.”

Trump’s involvement with Jeffrey Epstein was another sore point. The group was not buying that Trump wasn’t involved. “It does feel like a mockery,” said one. “I voted Republican for Christian values… and now it’s turned into something completely different.”

He sold them out. They know it. Even if they won’t admit it in public but will in a “safe space.”

And they were done pretending everything was fine.

And while the themes had been broken promises and failed execution, there was something else that caught me off guard.

They were sick of him.

His behavior. His character. The constant divisiveness. The everything-is-about-him fatigue. The social corrosion. The sense that the country just feels worse to live in.

What they want now, one subject offered, is “a normal Republican candidate and not a Donald Trump crony… just a normal human… that’s all I want.”

I titled this post “The Great Divorce.” The title comes from a 1945 novel by British author C. S. Lewis. The plot involves ghosts consigned to Hell (or Purgatory), imagined as a vast grey city where it always rains. Some of them take a bus trip excursion to the outskirts of Heaven. They might, if they choose, remain and experience joy there. If they still can. In the most memorable scene, a heavenly woman, Sarah, speaks to her husband-ghost, Frank. She appeals for him to stay. But he cannot let go of earthly bitterness and his need to manipulate her. He, or what’s left of him, will return to the Hell he’s embraced. Sarah’s joy is undiminished in Heaven. His melodrama cannot touch her there.

A quick summary:

Frank’s character is a complicated metaphor for the way humans use pity and self-loathing to manipulate other people, though he only appears toward the end of the novel. In life Frank knew and was loved by Sarah Smith, and would take advantage of her love by pretending that she’d hurt his feelings. Indeed, Frank has a long history of pretending to be sad in order to make other people feel guilty—even as a child he would do so. In the afterlife, Frank appears as two different ghosts, one small (the Dwarf), the other tall (the Tragedian). The Dwarf represents Frank’s inner life: his self-hatred, and his manipulative tendencies. The Tragedian, on the other hand, represents the “image” of pain and sadness that Frank tries to project in order to make other people feel guilty. Thus, in the afterlife Frank takes on a form that externalizes the psychological processes by which Frank would try to “blackmail” Sarah into feeling sorry for him.

Trump began his MAGA movement by giving supporters others toward whom to misdirect their anger over miseries real, imagined, or manufactured: immigrants, liberals, “wokeism,” a Black president, etc. But while these MAGAs are done with Trump, they are not done with the grievances that led them to him and that he exploited.

Mersault writes:

So this is not the moment to exhale.

They hadn’t abandoned all their beliefs.

They still wanted hardline border crackdowns driven by exaggerated fears about who was crossing, repeating inflammatory claims about “rapists and murderers.”

They still clung to a “pro-life” identity while ignoring the very real human cost of Republican policies that erode care, stability, and survival for the very people they say they value.

They still invoked “freedom” to reject vaccines, masks, and other public health measures, elevating anecdote (“I know someone who had a heart attack a week after the COVID vaccine.”) over overwhelming scientific evidence.

They still gave oxygen to conspiracies about stolen elections and hidden cabals of Democratic elites running child-trafficking rings out of pizza parlors.

They still distrusted expertise and institutions, except when those same institutions confirmed their own biases.

“They may be ready to fire the CEO, but not abandon the business model,” Mersault concludes. Any more than Frank can let go of needing to control Sarah or Rupert Murdock can let go of stoking hatreds. MAGAs need to control the country, their lessers, and any others.

Sign Guy dancing on an overpass with PLAN NOW FOR YOUR $5/GAL STAYCATION set off Reckless Endangerment Guy in a big way. (And I mean, he was out of control.) He still needs someone else to blame for his own disillusionment. Even with Trump’s favorables in the golden toilet, his political enemies remain. With Republicans facing a 2026 wipeout, it’s possible we’ll see more hysteria.

(h/t SS)

We’re all on a star trek

What Artemis II mission specialist Christina Koch saw when she looked back at Earth was not the beautiful, blue marble celebrated in photos from decades-old Apollo missions. What struck her more was all the blackness of space surrounding it. She had a revelation. Not unlike what William Shatner experienced, only different, but just as profound.

When in 2021 legendary Star Trek actor, William Shatner, 90, took a ten-minute, sub-orbital flight aboard a Blue Origin New Shepard rocket, it reduced him to tears:

Shatner: I saw the spaceship coming through the blue, and an instant later it was through the blue; this bullet exploded into the blackness of space, so in that instant I saw the blue suddenly disappear, and suddenly space is smack up in my face. I saw death there. The suddenness with which I looked at that blackness, I thought, “whoa, suddenly you go out there and then you’re dead.”

People often cry when they first see Earth from space, space philosopher Frank White wrote in his 1987 book, “The Overview Effect.”

Shatner told NPR:

“I wept for the Earth because I realized it’s dying,” Shatner said. “I dedicated my book, Boldly Go, to my great-grandchild, who’s three now — coming three — and in the dedication, say it’s them, those youngsters, who are going to reap what we have sown in terms of the destruction of the Earth.”

Koch saw that blackness too, the same blackness surrounding the Artemis II capsule. She realized we are all astronauts. On a lifeboat.

“Planet Earth: You. Are. A. Crew.”

when christina koch said ''You. Are. A. Crew.'' she literally summed up a whole philosophy in one line. like humanity is one crew on this planet and we either make it together or we dont. this aint just a moon mission tbh its a message for all of us down here.

— B. Mohammed (@BMohammedl) April 11, 2026

The bar is low for running a failed state

One reason people go to protests like No Kings is the reassurance they give that you’re not alone when the world feels like it’s going to hell around you. Even for MAGAs threatened by the presence of taco trucks and Mexican roofers. It’s why MAGAs go to Trump rallies. As the woman told a reporter, “He [Trump] says what I’m thinking.”

Matt Bai provides a touch of that in between mass rallies with a Rolling Stone piece about “the mind-blowing incompetence” of the Trump administration in its 2.0 incarnation. Trump learned in his first term that for his purposes (having nothing to do with actual governing), competence just got in his way:

Competence — and by that I mean the most fundamental, entry-level, don’t-blow-up-the-world kind of competence — was more of a thing in the first Trump term, when the president cycled through a series of senior aides, old-line party and military types, who saw themselves as buffers between Trump and the various agencies. Four years in exile liberated Trump from all of that. His second-term team comprises mainly fringe players and pugnacious pundits, people more comfortable with pancake makeup than managing complex bureaucracies, for which they have nothing but contempt anyway. It’s a bold experiment, but one that seemed ill-fated from the start.

Except for the nihilistic thirst Trump 2.0 has for destruction.

Exhibit A:

Put it this way: When Trump finally replaced Kristi Noem with Markwayne Mullin, a former plumber and MMA fighter who keeps intimating that he’s been some kind of secret military agent but can’t talk about it, every sane person in Washington applauded as if this were the second coming of James Baker in his prime. That tells you all you need to know.

Guys like that are all you need to preside “over a failed state.” It’s been a long road.

We know now that George W. Bush’s decline into chaos wasn’t merely a temporary nadir for the right. It marked the end of a 40-year run for neoconservatism and ultimately led to Trump’s hostile takeover of the party. Similarly, whether MAGA outlives Trump as a viable political force won’t only depend on whether it can still appeal to some slim margin of white voters. It will also depend on whether Republicans can shake the image of a party that seethes with contempt for government but is fundamentally unserious about running it.

You mean like “trickle down economics” unserious? Or “make the pie higher” unserious? Or “A whole civilization will die tonight” unserious? America’s problem is broader than the Republican Party. We as a people are “America elected Donald Trump president twice” unserious.

Federal court dismisses Trump defamation case

Another Trump lawsuit bites the dust (The New York Times):

A federal judge on Monday dismissed President Trump’s $10 billion defamation lawsuit against the publisher of The Wall Street Journal over its report of his lewd birthday greeting to the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Judge Darrin Gayles in the U.S. District Court of the Southern District of Florida said in his decision that Mr. Trump had not “plausibly alleged” that The Journal published the article with actual malice, meaning that it knew what it was publishing was false, or had acted with reckless disregard as to its accuracy. He dismissed the complaint without prejudice, allowing Mr. Trump to bring the same claim again.

Trump will try, of course, or find some less-monetary way to exact his revenge on the Journal, the Times, or other outlets that publish news he finds unflattering. It costs him money to bring such suits, but it costs his enemies to defend against them, so that works for Trump.

Now if the MAGA rubes still supporting Trump will stop donating to his lawsuit funds, maybe these frivolous lawsuits will dry up before Trump’s dessicated corpse does.

Courage is contagious

“The American people are unhappy with Trump. They do not like this war. But they need a dose of truth right now,” Alan Elrod wrote last week at Liberal Currents:

The truth is that the American people twice elected Donald Trump over more qualified Democratic women. The first time, Hillary Clinton warned explicitly that he did not have the temperament to be trusted with the nuclear codes. The second time, they overlooked an insurrection, a deadly pandemic, and a campaign full of bellicose and racist rhetoric, all despite the American economy being in the midst of one of the best post-covid recoveries in the world. 

In our representative democracy, the people speak to the president, and the president speaks to the people, but, crucially, the president also speaks for the people. That idea is at the heart of the whole enterprise. We cannot pretend that Trump’s monstrous words this week don’t reflect on us. We cannot pretend that we are well as a nation. No morally healthy country would put this man in power twice—the second time after he so clearly showed us and the world who he truly is. 

Elrod looks back at President Carter’s “malaise” speech, panned at the time, that called out America in the wake of the Vietnam War and Watergate as suffering “a crisis of confidence.”

Carter said (and Elrod quotes):

Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom, and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past.

In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close-knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose.

It was as much sermon as political speech. And prophetic, if not simply ahead of its time.

Trump, the Seven Deadly Sins on two legs, personifies self-indulgence. He models it, recommends it. He offers followers “an easy out” from the personal responsibility Republicans once extolled, even if mainly as a racial dog whistle. Trump is a papal indulgence who hates the pope.

Elrod reflects on what Trump’s elections say about us as a nation, as reflections on our national character that clearly troubled Carter. He speaks this morning to Greg Sargent on The Daily Blast podcast:

And what I mean by that in the essay is that if we don’t take seriously some of these more underlying problems—that we are a deeply isolated and lonely and distrustful country that is focused on material wellbeing and status and is more dislocated and civically apathetic than maybe we’ve ever been—that we’re going to get more Trumps, because that’s just fertile breeding ground for people like him.

And so it’s not so much that I think there’s just 50-something percent of the country that is committed to Trumpism. But I do think there’s just a huge amount of the country that is not doing well—and I mean that in an emotional way, I mean that in a political way, civically. And so I think those conditions, so long as they persist, continue to make us vulnerable to more cycles in the future of this kind of politics.

Is there a way out? Elrod tells Sargent:

Elrod: You know what? I think organizing and winning the elections are great. I think doing things in your community is more important. This is a generational fight. And beating Trump and beating MAGA at the polls is great. But if you don’t get out there and know your neighbors, if you don’t get out there and try to fix the social capital problem we have—a book club, start a movie night club, do something like that—if you don’t do those things and engage in those kinds of face-to-face interactions that really revive civic life around you, where you are, then I don’t think that this is a problem that we’re going to get out of anytime soon. That’s my hopeful message, actually, because I am hopeful about it. But winning an election is actually the short-term fix. Doing this stuff is the long-term.

Simple, visible actions matter.

Magyar is in. Swalwell is out.

Regarding MAGA darling Viktor Orbán’s stunning defeat in Hungarian elections on Sunday, a couple of observations about Péter Magyar’s landslide victory before mine.

Bottom line, writes Anne Applebaum in The Atlantic, “if Orbán can lose, then his Russian and American admirers can lose too.” Carry that with you everywhere like a key ring fob.

Applebaum details many of Orbán’s structural advantages that Magyar’s Tisza Party had to overcome, including an “extraordinary web of international illiberal and far-right supporters” and Orbán’s control of the media.

After 16 years of what Orbán himself described as an illiberal regime, the Hungarian leader’s political party, Fidesz, had come to control much of the judiciary, bureaucracy, and universities, as well as a group of oligarchic companies that in turn controlled a good chunk of the economy.

Michelle Goldberg adds:

The geopolitical consequences of Magyar’s victory could be profound. Under Orban, Hungary has vetoed aid to Ukraine and sanctions on both Russia and Israel. Magyar’s movement is hostile to Russia; people at his rallies have taken up the chant “Russians, go home,” a slogan from the 1956 Hungarian Revolution. “There is a strong narrative of commitment to the European Union and NATO,” said Zsuzsanna Végh, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund. And since Magyar doesn’t have a personal relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, she said, “some sanctions against Israel would likely be acceptable” to a Tisza government.

But what Hungarians faced inside their country, Goldberg suggests, “was a choice between the center right and the authoritarian right.” Tisza is not a left-leaning alternative to Orbán’s Fidesz Party. Orbán has all but eliminated the left in Hungary. But Magyar should be less likely “to demonize L.G.B.T.Q. people the way Orban did.” It’s a start.

The incoming Parliament “will be the first since 1989 with no left-wing representation, in part because many progressive candidates stood down to avoid splitting the anti-Orban vote.” What remained of the Hungarian left viewed the contest as a matter of practical, if not Machiavellian politics. Their support for Magyar did not rely on his passing purity tests. The result? Orbán is out.

Which brings me to Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) of California.

Amidst allegations of sexual misconduct that collapsed his campaign for governor in California, Swalwell announced on Sunday that he would withdraw from the race:

“I am suspending my campaign for Governor,” he posted on X. “To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”

Owing to California’s “jungle primary” system (the top two vote-getters advance to the general), Democrats now face a choice ahead of the June 2 primary. Swalwell was leading the polls on the Democratic side. It’s not clear where his supporters go now. If California Democrats cannot coalesce support behind one of the remaining Democrats, they could in theory hand the next governorship to Republicans. Especially if Republicans consolidate their support. It’s not likely, but then neither was Donald Trump in 2016.

Newsweek reports that according to the Kalshi prediction market, Tom Steyer now has a 56 percent chance of becoming governor, up from 51 percent on Sunday. Katie Porter’s odds are now 17 percent, up from 5 on Sunday. Also, “The Democratic Mayor of San Jose, Matt Mahan is close behind Porter. There is a 16 percent chance that he will win the race.”

I know nothing about Kalshi betters or if they even understand how California’s top-two primary works.

Already I’m seeing talk that, despite their progressive credentials, Porter’s staff issues and billionaire Steyer’s being able essentially to buy the governorship are deal breakers for some on the left. Maybe Xavier Becerra can come from behind to edge out one of the Republicans on June 2? Who will Swalwell support? And does anyone want his support at this time?

Whatever. California progressives should be at least as strategic as their counterparts in Hungary. Set aside the purity tests long enough to ensure that two Republicans don’t advance to the November election.

Over at The Bulwark, Tim Miller advises lefties to welcome MAGAs who feel betrayed by Donald Trump into the fold. Take yes for an answer “from various and sundry cranks and kooks not because we agree with their crazy or bigoted ideas but because any successful political coalition will contain some cranks,” Miller observes:

If you feel tempted to dismiss this welcoming approach as arising from an overly earnest, soft-boi impulse, just look at the question from a purely Machiavellian perspective: The more people who bail on Trump the better.

For a political party, what is the good in shunning or mocking these people? If some former Trump voters enter into an uneasy alliance with the Democrats, even temporarily, because they are pissed about the war—great!

Similarly, how about a little Machiavellianism among friends, California? Get it together.

If you have to ask….

Talking Points Memo reports on a souvenir awarded to Minneapolis veterans of operation “Metro Surge.” It’s a challenge coin featuring “portraits of President Donald Trump and a person who appears to be White House Border Czar Tom Homan glaring out from under a skull” with glowing eyes.

A federal employee who wishes to remain anonymous sent the images to TPM:

The White House referred questions about the Metro Surge challenge coin to DHS, which oversees ICE and many of the other key agencies involved in immigration enforcement. A DHS spokesperson provided a statement stressing that Customs and Border Protection has a process for reviewing and approving “branded merchandise,” including challenge coins.

“All external publications, videos, and branded merchandise, including coins and patches, must be reviewed and approved by the CBP Publication and Branding Review Board prior to printing, purchasing, or listing for sale,” the spokesperson said, adding, “This process ensures compliance with DHS branding guidelines and CBP policy. When CBP becomes aware of coins or patches that may not have been properly approved, we look into the matter and take appropriate action.”

The spokesperson did not immediately respond to follow up questions asking if the coin was external material, if it had been approved, or whether they would be reviewing the matter. 

But, of course, they didn’t.

The challenge coin distributed at the Whipple Building seemingly revels in the violence that occurred in conjunction with Operation Metro Surge. On the flip side, the token showcases another helmeted skull with glowing eyes looming over officers in tactical gear carrying a U.S. flag amid an explosion, burning buildings, and a low flying military helicopter. The base of the coin features the text “METRO SURGE URBAN OPERATIONS.”

And, um, here’s the thing about adopting the death’s head, or Totenkopf as your emblem. Claire Barrett, an editor and military history correspondent for Military Times, reviews the history of the Totenkopf. “First introduced in the late 1730s under Frederick the Great,” it was worn by German troops on the Western Front in 1918. But unless you’ve lived your life under a rock or never visited a local gun show, it’s best known for its association with the Nazis.

Barrett writes:

“Among other uses,” writes the Anti-Defamation League, “it became the symbol of the SS-Totenkopfverbande (one of the original three branches of the SS, along with the Algemeine SS and the Waffen SS), whose purpose was to guard the concentration camps. Many original members of this organization were later transferred into and became the core of a Waffen SS division, the 3rd SS ‘Totenkopf’ Panzer Division, which engaged in a number of war crimes during World War II.”

Commonly emblazoned on German military hats and coat collars, SS commander Heinrich Himmler took the dark symbolism even further by gifting elite members of the SS with a specialized SS-Ehrenrings, translated to “death’s head ring.”

The British comedy duo Mitchell and Webb once ran a sketch where an SS officer finally notices the death’s head on their caps and asks, “Are we the baddies?” Why skulls? he asks. They make you think of death, cannibals, beheading, pirates. Okay, pirates are fun, but they’re still the baddies, aren’t they?

Barrett concludes:

Mitchell and Webb managed to point out the ridiculousness of the insignia and those who wore it. So no, you’re not honoring your Prussian heritage by sporting the Totenkopf. You are, in fact, a baddie. A very offensive one.

And if you’re handing out souvenirs of an American government operation that terrorized the civilian population of a major U.S. city, and in which your secret police gunned down two of its citizens? And your souvenir features a Totenkopf? You might be a baddie.

You don’t need to be Jeff Foxworthy to figure that out.

Hungarians go to the polls

They vote on the weekend in Hungary. That’s one thing Hungary does that MAGAs do not want the U.S. emulating. But one day of voting? Donald Trump is all about that. And today’s the day. After 16 years of strong man leadership, Hungarians could give MAGA darling Viktor Orbán the boot. It could get messy for the close ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin and Trump.

The Guardian:

During the campaign, Orbán – the EU’s longest-serving leader – has trailed in the polls as he faces an unprecedented challenge from Péter Magyar, a former elite member of Orbán’s Fidesz party.

The challenge to Orbán’s power has sent rightwing leaders from around the globe scrambling to rally behind him. This week, JD Vance turned up in Budapest for a two-day visit, the US vice-president telling reporters that his aim was to help Orbán win.

Voting is brisk.

By midday on Sunday, turnout had climbed to a record 37.98%, according to the country’s national election office, meaning about 876,000 more voters had cast their ballots compared with the 2022 elections.

The two leading candidates voted at separate polling stations in Budapest early on Sunday, with Magyar, 45, telling reporters that Hungarians were writing history as they chose between “east or west, propaganda or honest public discourse, corruption or clean public life”.

Meanwhile Budapest is absolutely glowing tonight! 🇭🇺

Massive crowds turned out for Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party opposition rally — a sea of torches and lights lighting up the night against Orbán and Russia.

Elections are tomorrow… pic.twitter.com/3rE0TMVb0m

— Maine (@TheMaineWonk) April 11, 2026

The CBC reports:

Opinion polls have shown Orbán’s Fidesz party trailing Péter Magyar’s upstart centre-right opposition Tisza party by seven to nine percentage points, with Tisza at around 38-41 per cent.

Voting ​in the election for the 199-seat parliament started at 6 a.m. local time and is ​due to close at 7 p.m.

The CBC adds that “an Orbán defeat could mean the unblocking of a 90-billion-euro European Union loan vital for Kyiv’s war effort. It would also deprive Russia of its closest ally in the EU.”

Hope springs eternal.

Tens of thousands chant “Russians, go home!” at tonight’s anti-Orbán concert in Budapest’s Heroes’ Square ahead of Sunday’s Hungarian election. pic.twitter.com/q0DaPVRxJf

— Adam Schwarz (@AdamJSchwarz) April 10, 2026

Politico reports that Orbán’s supporters are “gearing up for a confrontation” once vote-counting begins:

As Hungarians continue to vote, Orbán supporters are already preparing for a confrontation once the results come in after voting stations close at 7 p.m. Both camps are exchanging accusations of electoral fraud, with experts warning the outcome could be challenged in court no matter who wins.

Hundreds of international observers have descended on Budapest, while Orbán’s camp has set up its own monitoring groups. A dozen EU lawmakers from the right-wing Patriots for Europe group are registered as observers, alongside 100 observers tied to Orbán-aligned groups — setting the stage for what experts warn will be a clash of narratives with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which the Hungarian government has dismissed as politicized.

Experts expect court challenges to the results.

The Washington Post:

Magyar has rapidly risen to become Orbán’s most serious challenger. The 45-year-old leader of the center-right Tisza party, which is leading in independent polls, campaigned on issues affecting ordinary voters including Hungary’s faltering public health care and transportation sectors and what he describes as rampant government corruption.

A former insider within Orbán’s Fidesz, Magyar broke with the party in 2024 and quickly formed Tisza. Since then, he has toured Hungary relentlessly, holding rallies in settlements big and small in a campaign blitz that recently had him visiting up to six towns daily.

Democrats have a fixation on “kitchen table” issues to the exclusion of nearly all else. Magyar is walking and chewing gum at the same time, taking on issues like public health and transportion while also campaigning against the corruption of the Orbán regime, a clear example of failure. A Magyar win could stiffen Democrats’ resolve for campaigning against Trump’s corruption in addition to economic concerns. They might promise to hold members of his inner circle and their hangers-on accounatble both for self-dealing and for crimes against the Constitution and Americans’ civil liberties.

There is no chance of turning around this country’s slide unless Democrats gain the power to do some truth and reconciliation. And exercise it for the first time since Watergate.

Boom goes Iowa….

Let’s not count chickens too soon. But for sufferers of Trump fatigue there is good news percolating in places like Iowa where the race for governor is suddenly close (Cook’s):

The battle for Iowa’s governorship is officially a barnburner.

Internal polls from sources in both parties now show Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand with a lead over his expected Republican opponent, Rep. Randy Feenstra. Sand’s enormous cash stockpile — he sits on $13.2 million to Feenstra’s $3.2 million on hand — ensures that he’ll be able to plaster his populist message on the airwaves all the way to Election Day, and national GOP operatives acknowledge they’ll have to spend heavily in Iowa to stay in the hunt. As a competitive general election looms, this race shifts from Lean Republican to Toss Up.

Trump won Iowa by 13 points.

Political Tribune notes:

At the center of that shift is Sand himself. He sits on $13.2 million in cash compared to Republican frontrunner Randy Feenstra’s $3.2 million, has visited all 99 counties, appeared on conservative media, and even collected petition signatures from registered Republicans, running with momentum on his side.

And right now, the momentum is doing most of the work. Trump’s tariffs have hit Iowa’s corn and soybean exports, while outgoing Republican Governor Kim Reynolds carries an approval rating that has been underwater for more than a year, partly tied to a school voucher push that has created budget strain in multiple major districts.

It’s not just Iowa. Trump is 23 points underwater nationally, Elliot Morris observes. His commentary on “cross-pressured” voters attempts to explain why -23 for Trump is only +6 for Democrats. In part because “one-third of the cross-pressured Trump disapprovers are effectively unavailable for Democrats.”

So while it’s encouraging to see prominent MAGAs leaving Trump behind, don’t think that means more votes for Democrats.

Looking ahead, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket now give Democrats an 87% chance of retaking the House in November, while Polymarket puts their Senate chances at 53%, up sharply from 17% before the Iran war pushed gas prices past $4 a gallon.

Rich Logis, founder of the nonprofit Leaving MAGA, tells Daily Beast that grievances he hears from MAGAs are both ideological and practical:

Trump campaigned on lowering costs, but gas prices now average more than $4 a gallon. A recent poll found that as many as seven in 10 Americans blame Trump’s tariff policies for high prices. His pledge to avoid “endless wars” has collided with military conflict in Iran.

Trump’s tariffs have certainly hit Iowa’s corn and soybean exports hard. And his failed pledge to lower costs is driving up the cost fertilizer for Iowa farmers just as planting season begins and campaign season goes into full swing.

The Trump administration doesn’t believe in political science any more than the regular kind. So launching his one-man war of choice in Iran has been a massive political mistake. That doesn’t mean his 2024 voters will vote Democrat this fall. They may simply stay home. Works for me.

He dropped the big one, all right. Right on his presidency. Let’s see what happens.

No one likes us, I don’t know why
We may not be perfect, but heaven knows we try

(h/t BF)

No halos here

It seems Kansas Republicans have made a song by Sting and The Police into state policy:

Republican legislators overrode Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto to create a 25-foot buffer around law enforcement and emergency personnel, a move the Senate leader said ensures Kansas won’t become like Minnesota.

Senate President Ty Masterson said in a news release that House Bill 2372, referred to as the Halo Act, keeps “radical protesters” from interfering with law enforcement and keeps officers and bystanders safe.

Masterson referred to riots in Minnesota when U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers injured and killed bystanders while detaining immigrants.

The bill makes it a misdemeanor crime to go within 25 feet of a first responder while they are working. A violation can result in a fine up to $1,000 and jail term of up to six months.

The new law would also keeps reporters 25 feet away and virtually end documentation by citizens with cell phones. They’d need cameras with long lenses and shotgun mics to record what officers are doing with (or to) detainees. Cell phones won’t cut it.

Darnella Frazier, then 17, was filming with her cell phone from a sidewalk a few feet away from Minneapolis police when in 2020 they pinned George Floyd to the pavement and squeezed the life out of him. She was close enough to both see and for her phone to pick up audio of Floyd’s cries of “I can’t breathe” as he died.

Frazier received a special citation from the Pulitzer Prize board for documenting Floyd’s murder. The board cited “the crucial role of citizens in journalists’ quest for truth and justice.”

Just not in Kansas.

Kansas Republicans pass law making it illegal to stand "too close" to ICE—6 months in jail for first offense.

Agents have complete control to decide if they feel "uncomfortable" or "distracted"—then they can arrest anyone within 25 feet.

MAGA want to stop people filming ICE so… pic.twitter.com/xdVMl0ou3I

— LongTime🤓FirstTime👨‍💻 (@LongTimeHistory) April 11, 2026