Boom goes Iowa….

Let’s not count chickens too soon. But for sufferers of Trump fatigue there is good news percolating in places like Iowa where the race for governor is suddenly close (Cook’s):
The battle for Iowa’s governorship is officially a barnburner.
Internal polls from sources in both parties now show Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand with a lead over his expected Republican opponent, Rep. Randy Feenstra. Sand’s enormous cash stockpile — he sits on $13.2 million to Feenstra’s $3.2 million on hand — ensures that he’ll be able to plaster his populist message on the airwaves all the way to Election Day, and national GOP operatives acknowledge they’ll have to spend heavily in Iowa to stay in the hunt. As a competitive general election looms, this race shifts from Lean Republican to Toss Up.
Trump won Iowa by 13 points.
Political Tribune notes:
At the center of that shift is Sand himself. He sits on $13.2 million in cash compared to Republican frontrunner Randy Feenstra’s $3.2 million, has visited all 99 counties, appeared on conservative media, and even collected petition signatures from registered Republicans, running with momentum on his side.
And right now, the momentum is doing most of the work. Trump’s tariffs have hit Iowa’s corn and soybean exports, while outgoing Republican Governor Kim Reynolds carries an approval rating that has been underwater for more than a year, partly tied to a school voucher push that has created budget strain in multiple major districts.
It’s not just Iowa. Trump is 23 points underwater nationally, Elliot Morris observes. His commentary on “cross-pressured” voters attempts to explain why -23 for Trump is only +6 for Democrats. In part because “one-third of the cross-pressured Trump disapprovers are effectively unavailable for Democrats.”
So while it’s encouraging to see prominent MAGAs leaving Trump behind, don’t think that means more votes for Democrats.
Looking ahead, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket now give Democrats an 87% chance of retaking the House in November, while Polymarket puts their Senate chances at 53%, up sharply from 17% before the Iran war pushed gas prices past $4 a gallon.
Rich Logis, founder of the nonprofit Leaving MAGA, tells Daily Beast that grievances he hears from MAGAs are both ideological and practical:
Trump campaigned on lowering costs, but gas prices now average more than $4 a gallon. A recent poll found that as many as seven in 10 Americans blame Trump’s tariff policies for high prices. His pledge to avoid “endless wars” has collided with military conflict in Iran.
Trump’s tariffs have certainly hit Iowa’s corn and soybean exports hard. And his failed pledge to lower costs is driving up the cost fertilizer for Iowa farmers just as planting season begins and campaign season goes into full swing.
The Trump administration doesn’t believe in political science any more than the regular kind. So launching his one-man war of choice in Iran has been a massive political mistake. That doesn’t mean his 2024 voters will vote Democrat this fall. They may simply stay home. Works for me.
He dropped the big one, all right. Right on his presidency. Let’s see what happens.
No one likes us, I don’t know why
We may not be perfect, but heaven knows we try
(h/t BF)


















