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As Far As You Can Throw Them

Published by Tom Sullivan on October 31, 2025

Credibility has a value Trump will never understand

The Donald Trump administration does not know who it is murdering on small boats in the Caribbean, Defense officials told lawmakers in a classified House briefing on Thursday. Military lawyers were removed before the briefing. Democrats were excluded from a similar Senate briefing the day before, Politico reports:

“[The department officials] said that they do not need to positively identify individuals on these vessels to do the strikes, they just need to prove a connection to a designated terrorist organization or affiliate,” said Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.). “When we tried to get more information, we did not get satisfactory answers.”

GOP lawmakers did not answer reporters’ questions.

To date, the U.S. has killed at least 61 alleged drug runners that we know of. Burned and mangled corpses missing limbs are washing ashore on Trinidad.

While White House officials have repeatedly referenced the threat posed by fentanyl being smuggled into the United States — it accounted for roughly 70 percent of overdose deaths nationwide in 2023, according to the National Institute on Drug Abuse — officials at Thursday’s briefing said the boats hit so far were primarily transporting cocaine.

“They argued that cocaine is a facilitating drug of fentanyl, but that was not a satisfactory answer for most of us,” said Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.).

Last week the New York Times reported:

Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, over the weekend accused the United States of murdering a Colombian fisherman in an attack on a boat that the American authorities claimed had been carrying drugs. President Trump responded by halting aid to Colombia and saying that Mr. Petro, a leftist, had a “fresh mouth toward America.”

“Fresh mouth” is a phrase you haven’t heard since the 1960s. But then, consider the source: President Arrested Development.

The killings have spread fear across the Caribbean. Fishermen stay close to shore and fear working at night. Legal analysts believe the strikes in Trump’s self-proclaimed “war” against drug cartels (from one specific country, mind you) violate U.S. law and international law:

“The strikes are disturbing because they’re obviously extrajudicial strikes that are not supported by any legal framework whatsoever,” former attorney general Garvin Nicholas told The Washington Post. “It should not be that the government encourages extrajudicial killings.”

Digby on Monday referenced the “golden shield” that go-ahead rulings from the Office of Legal Counsel provide for such actions. A kind of advance pardon, they “insulate executive officials from future criminal liability through legal advice.” Readers will recall the infamous torture memos from the Bush II administration that blessed prisoner torture post-Sept. 11.

Playing devil’s advocate for a moment, in an actual war the military rarely has faces and names attached to the enemies it targets. But this is not an actual war. Trump invented it out of whole cloth. Perhaps he means to prosecute a real one of regime change against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Or perhaps he needs yet another distraction from the pending release of the Epstein files or inflation or his falling poll numbers. These boat strikes are simply murders.

Digby on Thursday posted about the creepy DHS spokesman video. The Washington Post found inaccurate and deceptive editing throughout the white nationalist propaganda videos DHS churns out. Trump has operated his entire life on the theory that you can fool some of the people all of the time, enough to rip them off, line his pockets, and get away with it. If they complain, he sues them into bankruptcy.

This supposed master dealmaker places a high value on the Trump brand. What’s striking is how little value he and his entire administration of lies sets on credibility, on trustworthiness. That’s a key, ephemeral element of any brand, i.e., “the brand you trust.” Trump must have skipped class to get laid the day they discussed that at Wharton.

The Trump administration is one you can’t trust farther than you can throw it. Now, neither is the United States of America.

Update: Added Sen. Mark Warner’s statement above.

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MAGA Loves The Wrecking Ball

Published by digby on October 30, 2025

That said, 3 in 10 Americans approve — including a majority of Republicans. There’s an interesting age split in the YouGov data, with older Americans being more likely to express approval of the destruction, almost certainly a function of the fact that older Americans are more likely to be Republican.

We shouldn’t lose sight of the significance of that support, though. A third of Republicans strongly approve of Trump simply smashing the East Wing into rubble, something that it is extremely safe to assume they would have viewed more skeptically had it been undertaken by, say, Barack Obama. Condemnation from Democrats would likely have been more modest under such circumstances, sure … but no Democratic president would have suddenly taken a wrecking ball to the White House without notice. (Harry Truman, a Democrat, did oversee a renovation of the building, but he did so with guidance and input from appointed officials and experts.)

[…]

It is not the case that support for the destruction of the East Wing is a function of people not understanding what happened. YouGov asked Americans whether they’d seen images or video of the building being demolished. Six in 10 Americans said they had, including a majority of Republicans. In other words, at least some (but probably quite a few) Republicans saw the destruction with their own eyes and approved.

One takeaway here is that the demolition of the East Wing is unpopular. But another is that this, too, has collapsed into a partisan framework. An action that would almost certainly have met with condemnation if suggested to Trump voters in October 2024 is, in October 2025, viewed positively for little more reason than that Trump did it.

If the destruction of a substantial portion of the White House is an on-the-nose metaphor for Trump’s attack on American democracy, consider how we might extrapolate Republican support for his doing so.

Oh, it’s not hard to figure. They just love Trump and anything he does and it thrilled them to see him destroying something that other people love.

Recapturing Our “National Identity”

Published by digby on October 30, 2025

Please take the time to watch this if you can. It’s mind blowing:

That’s just a straight up “blood and soil” Nazi-style propaganda. I literally felt sick watching it.

The Washington Post has a long story (gift link) about the hugely expensive DHS propaganda effort which is mostly slick videos circulated on social media which feature images to give the impression that America is under assault and the cities are all on fire. Unfortunately, those images are often from foreign countries, different states, previous eras — in other words, they are lies. Surprise! They get lots of views and I’m sure the dumbest people in the country believe every world of it.

That guy in the video up top, by the way, is a DHS spokesman who releases these little Orewellian PSAs regularly. He came directly out of Turning Point USA. The whole administration is now staffed by shitposters, influencers, trolls and wingnut welfare recipients. Virtually no one with any expertise in anything but licking Donald Trump’s boots need apply.

The Grift Is Epic

Published by digby on October 30, 2025

EvenTrump’s kitchen cabinet of morons is making money selling favors to the worst people in the world:

The Trump administration on Wednesday lifted sanctions against a Serbian nationalist leader who had been accused of undermining a U.S.-brokered peace agreement that ended bloody sectarian fighting in the 1990s in the Balkans.

The sanctions relief for Milorad Dodik, who had served until earlier this month as president of a small self-governing territory in Bosnia and Herzegovina called Republika Srpska, was a victory for the politician and for a pricey influence campaign mounted on his behalf by several allies of President Trump.

The removal of the sanctions could allow Mr. Dodik, who is still the leader of the ruling party in Srpska and has closely allied himself with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, to remain influential in the Serb-controlled region even without a formal role in the government.

Sanctions were also lifted against members of Mr. Dodik’s family and inner circle, as well as companies associated with them, some of which had previously been accused by the Treasury Department of being part of Mr. Dodik’s “corrupt patronage network.”

I’m sure you’re curious about how this came about:

One of the lobbyists, Marc Zell, signed a contract with the Srpska government late last year calling for his firm to be paid $1 million for one year, with an additional “success fee” for “bringing about the cancellation/termination of all sanctions.”

Mr. Zell did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Also taking up Mr. Dodik’s cause were several prominent figures in Mr. Trump’s orbit. They included Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former New York City mayor who served as the president’s personal lawyer during his first term; Michael T. Flynn, the retired lieutenant general who briefly served as national security adviser in the first Trump White House; Laura Loomer, the right wing provocateur who has the ear of the president; and Rod Blagojevich, the former governor of Illinois, who was pardoned by Mr. Trump in February before signing a contract with the Srpska government the following month for an undisclosed sum.

Pardons, sanctions, wars, visas — it’s all for sale under this regime. War criminals are lining up.

About That Ten Out Of Twelve

Published by digby on October 30, 2025

We know that no matter what happened in the trade talks in Asia Trump would have strutted around declaring it the greatest negotiation in history, saying that all the foreign leaders love him and he’s brought home gazillions for the American people. With Al the triumphant ceremonies we’ve seen over this interminable 10 months of his second administration, we can count on it being hype and should discount anything he says.

In reality, the trade talks with Xi Jinping were basically a short term truce at best. The NY Times:

When Xi Jinping walked out of his meeting with President Trump on Thursday, he projected the confidence of a powerful leader who could make Washington blink.

The outcome of the talks suggested that he succeeded.

By flexing China’s near monopoly on rare earths and its purchasing power over U.S. soybeans, Mr. Xi won key concessions from Washington — a reduction in tariffs, a suspension of port fees on Chinese ships and the delay of U.S. export controls that would have barred more Chinese firms from accessing American technology. Both sides also agreed to extend a truce struck earlier this year to limit tariffs.

“What’s clear is they have become increasingly bold in exerting leverage and they are happy to pocket any and all U.S. concessions,” said Julian Gewirtz, who was a senior China policy official at the White House and the State Department in President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s administration.

Sounding almost like he was delivering a lecture, Mr. Xi said to Mr. Trump that the “recent twists and turns” of the trade war should be instructive to them both, according to a Chinese government summary of Mr. Xi’s remarks at the meeting in Busan, South Korea.

He was saying that he recent twists and turns should have taught the Orange fool a lesson. Unfortunately, he’s wrong about that. Trump can’t learn.

Krugman wrote about the bigger issues yesterday. Turns out the tacos aren’t that great:

He surveys the ways in which this tariff war has hurt the economy starting with higher prices. He explains the difference in that graph above pointing out that one of the reasons tariffs haven’t caused more inflation is only partly because businesses are “eating the tariffs” and is instead likely due to a wide range of legal tariff avoidance schemes by foreign exporters who figure out ways around Trump’s complex and ultimately stupid rules.

Other ways of avoiding tariffs may not be legal or may at any rate frustrate the tariffs’ goals. Goods from countries that are the subject of high tariffs may be laundered, transshipped via countries facing lower tariffs. Exporters may find ways to relabel what they sell, to qualify for lower rates. There’s surely some fraud involved — how could there not be, given the incentives? — but in any case the bottom line is that in practice tariffs haven’t gone up as much as you might have thought. And I don’t see any obvious reason to believe that tariff avoidance will go away. It will probably be a quasi-permanent feature of the system.

If this is the primary reason why the tariffs haven’t resulted in a huge spike in prices it’s good new because it means “the unwillingness of businesses to pass on tariffs has probably been a smaller factor in holding down prices than widely assumed” and we may not be looking at a big rise in inflation in the future.

Then there’s uncertainty and the “frozen job market”

The Trump tariffs were supposed to bring about a revival of U.S. manufacturing. That’s obviously not happening so far: Manufacturing employment is down, partly because some of Trump’s tariffs, notably on steel and aluminum, have substantially raised producers’ costs.

On the other hand, the tariffs haven’t caused large-scale layoffs, although several major employers including Amazon, UPS and Target have announced big layoff plans in the past few days.

The most striking thing about the labor market, however, isn’t large-scale job loss. It is, instead, the way the market has frozen, with very low rates of hiring. I wrote about this last week. The no-hire economy has made life very difficult for young people just entering the work force as well as for those who have, for whatever reason, lost jobs. It also greatly reduces workers’ bargaining power. A new report from the JPMorganChase Institute finds that wage gains have slowed sharply across the board, with young workers seeing the slowest wage growth since 2011. Against the background of accelerating inflation, this is a serious blow to U.S. workers.

And the uncertainty created by temper-tantrum tariff policy is probably the biggest single reason for the frozen job market.

He’s hopeful that the Asia tour has produced some stability. I’ll be surprised.

And then there’s the long lasting damage to the U.S and global world order:

Soon, I expect, Trump will be declaring victory after performing a climb-down on tariffs and touting make-believe investment numbers. He will proclaim that he won the trade war. Well, he didn’t.

The main benefit from these deals (assuming they happen and last for a while), is that the United States will stop hitting itself in the face. U.S. consumers, producers and workers have been the main victims of Trump’s tariffs. We could have achieved victory by not hitting ourselves in the face in the first place.

Furthermore, these deals cannot fix the more profound damage that six months of tariff madness has inflicted: the incalculable damage to U.S. credibility and, with it, to the global world economic order.

First, everything — everything — Trump has done on trade has, in addition to its illegality, been a violation of past U.S. agreements with other countries. So we emerge from the trade war as a nation that can no longer be trusted to honor its promises.

Second, if we look at the confrontation with China in particular, the end result looks like a demonstration of U.S. weakness and Chinese strength. China may offer some cosmetic concessions, promising to buy some soybeans or whatever. But the reality — which is obvious to everyone in the world except, possibly, some U.S. voters — is that Trump threatened extremely high tariffs on China but climbed down when China began curtailing exports of rare earths and other industrial inputs. China had the upper hand, and it played it.

In fact, I’d argue that China is now clearly winning its geopolitical conflict with the United States. America used to be able to count on support from its democratic allies. Now it has alienated them, and established a reputation for arbitrarily reneging on agreements. America used to have unmatched economic leverage. Now the world knows that China has more.

It’s similar to the way he dropped the big bunker buster bombs on Iran’s nuclear sites and proved that our biggest non-nuclear threat wasn’t really all that.

He just keeps showing the world that America is a big, stupid, giant that can’t be trusted.

JD’s Problem

Published by digby on October 30, 2025

Offered without comment:

Question: When you talk about too many immigrants here, when did you guys decide that number? Why did you sell us a dream? You made us spend our youth, our wealth in this country and gave us a dream. You don’t owe us anything. We have worked hard for it.

How can you as a vice president stand there and say that we have too many of them now and we are going to take them out to people who are here rightfully so by paying the money that you guys asked us? You gave us the path and now how can you stop it and tell us we don’t belong here anymore?

JD Vance says he’s raising his children Christian, and he hopes his agnostic wife, Usha, comes around to the Christian faith.

“Most Sundays, Usha comes with me to church.” “Do I hope eventually she is moved by the same thing I was moved by? Yes. I honestly do wish that. I believe in the Christian gospel, and I hope eventually, my wife comes to see it the same way.”

One Year Ago

Published by digby on October 30, 2025

Everyone knew. And they voted for him anyway. They either liked that agenda very much or … eggs. And they just couldn’t stomach an old man or a Black woman.

They got what they voted for.

Mr. Popularity

Published by Tom Sullivan on October 30, 2025

When will MAGA shout, “You’re fired”?

Go figure (CNN):

According to a new national poll from the Washington Post and ABC News, 56% oppose the project, including 45% who say they strongly oppose it. Just 28% support it, with 16% unsure.

Republicans are more apt than Democrats or independents to favor the demolition of the East Wing, but strong support among Republicans is far smaller than strong opposition among Democrats. Among Republicans, 62% support the project, with 35% strongly in favor. Democratic opposition stands at 88%, including 78% who strongly oppose it, while 61% of independents oppose the project, including 49% who feel that way strongly.

That mere 28% of Americans supporting the demolition means the destruction is eating into Trump’s MAGA base.

Axios reports:

Evangelicals and Catholics uneasy with President Trump‘s rhetoric and immigration policies are subtly distancing themselves from MAGA — and taking some congregation members with them.

Driving the news: Some churches are seeing a “quiet quitting” trend as pastors avoid political sermons and help members disengage from Trump’s movement — without ostracizing family members who might still be MAGA devotees.

  • “We’ve gotten more testimonials. I’m starting to now see ‘Leaving MAGA’ signs popping up on billboards, overpasses, and [at] No Kings protests,” said Rich Logis, a Catholic ex-Trump supporter who founded a group called Leaving MAGA.

Forbes:

-19 net approval rating: Trump’s approval rating dipped to a second-term low of 39% in Economist/YouGov polling, while 58% disapprove of his job performance in the survey taken Oct. 24-27 among 1,623 U.S. adults (margin of error 3.5).

Trump’s net approval rating in the poll is also lower than all but one Economist/YouGov survey taken during his first term.

Trump told reporters Tuesday he has the “highest [poll] numbers I ever had,” repeating a claim he made Monday on Truth Social, despite polling averages and most individual surveys showing his approval rating has declined significantly since he took office in January.

But that poll on the East Wing demolition is telling, even if, with Americans’ short memories, his numbers rebound slightly. Send him to bed without his Big Mac.

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The Beatings Will Continue….

Published by Tom Sullivan on October 30, 2025

Who will split the baby?

https://www.kff.org/quick-take/which-congressional-districts-could-see-the-greatest-aca-premium-payment-increases/

Depending on which news outlets one trusts most, Republican support for Trump tariffs is beginning to flag or else Democrats are in increasing disarray and about to “blink” on the budget crisis and sacrifice Obamacare.

Republicans from farm states have had enough of the government shutdown now in its 30th day. Donald Trump’s suggestion on Oct.19 that he might import beef from Argentina has sent them over the edge, Politico reports:

Some of the president’s staunchest Hill allies watched for months as Trump’s tariffs devastated farmers. More recently, they begged his deputies to reopen key farm offices during the shutdown. Then came the beef beef, with one GOP senator granted anonymity to speak candidly calling it a “a betrayal of America First principles.”

Even in the Trump-loyal House, key Republicans are pushing back.

Trump’s whipsawing of his own supporters is eroding his support on Capitol Hill.

The frustrations are also playing out on the Senate floor this week on a series of votes to undo some of Trump’s global tariffs. On Tuesday, five GOP senators joined Democrats to reverse 50 percent tariffs on Brazil; four Republicans voted Wednesday to cancel tariffs on Canada. While the votes are largely symbolic — House Republicans have preempted any challenges to Trump tariffs until February — the message was sent.

Over in the Senate, 10 Republicans have signed to Sen. Josh Hawley’s (R-Mo.) bill to fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) through the shutdown, The Hill reports:

The Keep SNAP Funded Act of 2025 would fund the food aid program for states across the country until the nearly-month-long government shutdown ends and the Department of Agriculture (USDA) can receive its allotments through appropriations or stopgap measures.

“There is no reason any of these residents of my state — or any other American who qualifies for food assistance — should go hungry. We can afford to provide the help,” Hawley wrote in a Tuesday op-ed for The New York Times. 

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) indicated on Wednesday that Democrats would support Hawley’s bill, if Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R) of South Dakota would allow it to onto the floor for a vote. So far, he won’t. And the USDA refuses to release $6 billion in reserve funds, claiming (falsely) that they are “not legally available to cover regular benefits.“ 

The monthly cost for SNAP is estimated at $8 billion.

Roll Call:

“The Republicans have been on a crusade against SNAP all year,” said Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y. “They slashed it by $200 billion this summer to pay for their tax cuts for billionaires. So they’ve never wanted SNAP, and they don’t want it now. Again, they’re using these 40 million innocent people as pawns.”

Sen. Ben Ray Luján, D-N.M., introduced a bill this week that would require the Trump administration to fund both SNAP and Special Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC). It would also require the government to reimburse states for funding benefits during the shutdown. That’s also a nonstarter of Thune.

Thune on Wednesday shouted that if Democrats want to save SNAP, they must vote to reopen the government (ABC News):

“Let me just point out if I might that we are 29 days into a Democrat shutdown. And the senator from New Mexico is absolutely right. SNAP recipients shouldn’t go without food. People should be getting paid in this country,” Thune said before escalating his voice to a full scream. “And we’ve tried to do that 13 times and you voted no 13 times. This isn’t a political game. These are real peoples lives that we are talking about and you all have just figured out 29 days in that, ‘Oh there might be some consequences, that people are running out of money.'”

Lujan’s bill came as 25 states have filed a lawsuit on the issue ahead of the halting of benefits at the start of November.

“The Trump administration has the authority and the funds to keep SNAP running during this shutdown,” Lujan said. “Any failure to do so right now falls squarely on the Trump administration and Republicans.”

A reminder from Heather Cox Richardson:

The Republicans’ budget reconciliation bill of July, the law they call the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” cut more than $1 trillion from Medicaid and made dramatic changes to SNAP, including cuts of $187 billion from SNAP over ten years. Crucially, the Republicans designed those cuts to go into effect after the 2026 midterm elections.

But their refusal to extend the premium tax credits and end the government shutdown has given Americans an early taste of what those changes will mean.

Democrats just need to “get off their ass,” the man shouted out the window at the traffic light during Wednesday rush hour. He was replying to my sign that declared 29,000 county residents will lose SNAP benefits on Saturday. Presumably, he prefers that Democrats cave on the Trump funding bill stalled in the House. It eliminates ACA premium subsidies that nearly 80 percent of Americans want extended. It would permanently more than double (if not triple) health premium costs for over 24 million Americans. Or 40 million Americans can go hungry until shutdown’s end. He’s willing to split that baby. Democrats so far are not.

https://www.kff.org/quick-take/which-congressional-districts-could-see-the-greatest-aca-premium-payment-increases/

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Is this a private fight, or can anyone join?

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Attending a Protest Surveillance Self-Defense