According to this breathless Axios report, the fall election is the “boys vs. girls” election. I could be mistaken but it sure sounds like they think the “boys” are the big winners in that contest:
Top Trump advisers tell us that when the Republican National Convention opens in Milwaukee on Monday, the contrast they want pervading social media is ultimately “weak vs. strong.” Onstage, it’ll be the testosterone party. It’s Donald Trump’schest-beating macho appeals vs. Joe Biden’s softer, reproductive-rights-dominated, all-gender inclusivity.
[…]
Share of 18- to 29-year-olds who identify as liberal, by gender
Among 1,000+ U.S. adults 18 to 29 years old surveyed annually from 1999-2023
The line chart shows the percentage of American men and women aged 18-29 who identify as liberal from 1999 to 2023. The data reveals a general upward trend over the years, with women consistently identifying as liberal at a higher rate than men. The gap grew in the 2010s and beyond, with 40% of women identifying as liberal compared to 25% of men in 2023.
In theory, most of these trends should favor Biden.
[…]
But in most polls, Trump has led in most of the six big swing states — thanks largely to the swing in men toward Trump.
John Della Volpe — Harvard Institute of Politics polling director, and director of Harvard Youth Poll — tells us: “For a new generation of young male voters whose first impression of Donald Trump was almost a decade ago (when they were middle school age), he’s an anti-hero sticking it to a system viewed as slow, ineffectual and corrupt.”
“That image has been echoed tens of millions of times through social media, podcasters, in gamer and other communities,” Della Volpe says.
There’s more. And it’s unpleasant to read. Trump’s “surge” among men after his “frail” performance by 23 points and Biden’s “ticked up” 8 points after the debate according to the Oracle of DelphiNew York Times/Siena poll.
The GOP convention is apparently looking to exploit this alleged advantage by featuring wife beaters and golf pros:
Dana White, the macho president of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), the hottest sport for testosterone-charged fans, will introduce Trump, whose rhetoric and policies shoot right into the bloodstream of his male-dominated base. White, a controversial figure in his own right, apologized last year after being filmed slapping his wife at a nightclub.
The “everyday Americans” who’ve been announced as speakers include typical convention fare (a rancher, a steamfitters union leader, three decorated war heroes) — plus John Nieporte, head golf pro at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, and Carrie Ruiz, golf general manager at Trump National Doral in Miami.
Update: Tucker Carlson will have a prime-time slot, the N.Y. Times scoops.
Ooh baby. I’m not sure how the reporter meant this next sentence but I know how it sounds:
Can you imagine a hunter, a cage-fight promoter and a convicted felon dazzling the DNC? They’d be canceled before they entered the arena.
“Canceled” Oh yuck, amirite?
He goes on to say that the Dems plan to offer a “softer celebration” of diversity and featuring abortion rights “the one topic” they think won them the off year elections. (That’s not ttue — they were won on a whole host of issues, including a strong resistance to the fascist takeove of our democracy. I guess you can call that “soft” but it really isn’t. At all. )
Anyway, who cares about that:
Trump’s first public appearance after his felony convictions (based on hush money to a porn star) was at a UFC fight in Newark, where he and White were greeted by a rip-roaring crowd of mostly young men.
The thunderous and carefully choreographed entrance culminated in a viral handshake with UFC commentator Joe Rogan — whose millions of podcast listeners skew 80% male.
Not long after, Trump appeared on the popular podcast All-In, co-hosted by four towel-snapping dudes. Tech bros are a rising group of swing voters for Trump.
Trump’s so cool. A real macho dude. His orange make-up is especially manly along with this “Flock of Seagulls” shellacked yellow hair. In fact, if you didn’t know better he might even be a drag queen which we know all these super masculine Trump lovers greatly admire.
And they almost always vote in larger numbers: In 2020, 74% of adult U.S. women said they voted, vs. 71% of men. That split has held true for 40+ years — in every presidential election beginning in 1980, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.
There’s also a big split in registration: 89 million women told census surveyors they were registered in 2020, vs. 79 million men. (Explore the data.)
I’m not sure exactly how it happened, but suddenly everyone’s talking about Project 2025. Maybe it really was Taraji P Henson talking about it on the BET awards and John Oliver laying out the stakes on his show, in which case we owe them a debt of gratitude. Whatever it was it’s now circulating in the mainstream and nothing couple be more important.
A sweeping proposal for how Donald Trump should handle a second term in office has sparked concern for its implications on the role of federal government and its calls to eliminate a number of basic human rights.
The 2025 Presidential Transition Project, more commonly known as Project 2025, released a 900-page manifesto last year titled “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise.” The policy guidebook — compiled by the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation in partnership with more than 100 other conservative organizations — lays out a far-right, Christian nationalist vision for America that would corrode the separation of church and state, replace nonpartisan government employees with Trump loyalists and bolster the president’s authority over independent agencies.
Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts, a rumored candidate for Trump’s chief of staff in a second term, promoted his group’s extreme positions during a July interview, saying, “We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”
Shortly after Roberts’ controversial interview, Trump attempted to distance himself from Project 2025, saying on Truth Social that he knows “nothing” about it and has “no idea who is behind it,” before adding that he disagrees with some of its propositions.
While Project 2025 is not formally a part of Trump’s campaign platform, it has been led and supported by several influential people in his orbit. The project’s top leaders all worked in Trump’s White House and a number of the manifesto’s contributors also served in the Trump administration, including but not limited to former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson and imprisoned former trade adviser Peter Navarro.
Equally damaging to Trump’s claim that he is unfamiliar with Project 2025 is that he worked closely with the Heritage Foundation when he was first elected president. He was provided a similar “Mandate for Leadership” back in 2016, and enacted nearly two-thirds of the group’s proposals within his first year in office.
The Heritage Foundation also reportedly played a behind-the-scenes role on Trump’s presidential transition team and had a significant hand in staffing the administration.
Olivia Troye, a former adviser to Mike Pence, called Trump’s denial of Project 2025 “ludicrous” in a CNN interview. “I think what this is telling us is that Donald Trump knows that what is written in this plan is so extreme that it is damaging to his possibility of getting elected,” she said.
People Magazine published that. And it goes on to document the atrocities in the document in detail. (You should read it!)
Nothing could be more important than reminding normal everyday Americans who may not be glued to politics twitter or CNN that Trump is a monster and his people are extremist nuts.
My Alabama colleagues like @SenTuberville are right—this is a MAJOR win.
It’s a shame he voted against the bill that made it possible.
As Alabama’s only Member of Congress to vote FOR President Biden’s Infrastructure Law, I’m proud to see these funds coming to our state! https://t.co/OSKLim4kFH
— Rep. Terri A. Sewell (@RepTerriSewell) July 12, 2024
The way these “Christian” republicans try and take credit for a bill they voted against while tearing down the President that signed it is next level hypocritical. https://t.co/t47pGYQlfv
— Auburn Barn Doc (Parody account)🐅 (@aubarndoc) July 13, 2024
Kay Ivey is trying to take credit for money that all the Republicans voted against. https://t.co/mE2jSbtiED
I could go on. This is happening all over the country. It’s astonishing just how shameless they really are. But because they have their own media they know that their voters will never hear the truth.
A Friday breakout session titled “Amplify: Getting Louder in 2024” featured ads written and tested to move audiences on key issues.
Humor is an important way to grab viewers’ attention. But it’s hard to do irony, explained panelist Anat Shenker-Osorio. The ad above generated eye rolls when first tested. Audiences thought it an exaggeration, unbelievable. Creators had to add the end cards to explain that this joke is no joke.
Republicans blocked a bill to protect access to contraception on June 5.
It’s one reason why health care advocate Laura Packard is traveling around the country with a giant, inflatable IUD.
More Amplify ads are here. They are free for you to use (except in Arizona). “All videos have been tested to ensure they not only persuade our audiences but move them to action. This “mobisuasion” approach is meant to break through the noise and mobilize voters in our base to repeat our message.”
MAGA Republicans don’t want to govern They want to rule … You! Marc Elias was on MSNBC Friday with Nicolle Wallace raising the alarm again about Project 2025 [timestamp 5:05]*:
“…I think we need to divide [the Project 2025] policy agenda into two pieces. There is the substantive policies which, honestly, I don’t think Donald Trump cares about, one way or the other. I suspect he is not even familiar with them or, if he is, he may agree or disagree with some of them. And then there are the process policies, and that is where Donald Trump sees the action, because the process pieces are what allows him to effectuate his desire to be a dictator. Not for a day. Not for a week. But to be an authoritarian ruler, that he can do whatever he wants, can run government with his cronies in charge, and have everyone in the executive branch at his beck and call. He will go after his enemies. He will seek vengeance. He will unleash not just the Department of Justice, but he will unleash the IRS, the DHS, it’ll be permitting. And he wants to be able to control government…as a tool of his corrupt vision of America. So should people be putting tens of millions of dollars into educating the public about Project 2025? I’d say no, they should be putting billions of dollars in educating the public about Project 2025. The fact is that we are facing an existential crisis of democracy, and there is not the organized, coordinated, well-funded, serious effort to understand that the other side is not playing a game of propaganda. They are playing for keeps, and their idea of keeps is to undermine democracy for a generation or more.”
A friend notes that while the barbarians are at the gates, Democrats in leadership are more worried about protecting their jobs than protecting the country and you from facing a dictatorial regime Republicans have in mind. They have one gear and what you’re seeing is it. They will not or cannot think outside the box.
Republicans are playing for keeps.
DO YOUR PART. Raise the alarm via every platform you have. Retweet the Lincoln Project and Biden-Harris HQ posts about Project 2025. Tell your friends, the people serving you lattes, etc.
Philadelphia Zoo is proud to announce the birth of a critically endangered Sumatran orangutan, the first birth of this species at the Zoo in 15 years, and a significant birth to the population of these animals.
Born to the Zoo’s 31-year-old female Tua and 28-year-old male, Sugi, on June 26, the infant continues to look strong, and Tua continues to be an excellent mother, nursing and holding the baby at all times. The sex of the infant has not been determined and a name has not been chosen. Mom and baby are currently setting their own schedule for when they will be visible to guests. They have access to their indoor habitat where visitors may get a glimpse of them but also have access to their bedroom space to spend time alone.
The Zoo is planning to have their big public debut sometime in mid-August and invites everyone to join. More details on the celebration to come soon. The baby’s birth is a part of the Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA) Species Survival Plan (SSP) breeding program to ensure the survival of Sumatran orangutans and maintain a genetically diverse population. Sumatran orangutans are listed as critically endangered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with a population of 14,000 left on the island of Sumatra. Primary threats include deforestation and population fragmentation.
“It is a joy to be able to share this wonderful news with the greater Philadelphia region and the world,” says Vice President of Animal Well-Being and Conservation Rachel Metz. “This critically endangered species is rapidly losing habitat largely due to deforestation as a result of an increased demand for logging, palm oil, and other natural resources located in their habitats. Working with the Association of Zoos and Aquariums to maintain a genetically healthy population in human care is vital to the survival of this species.”
“Our entire Zoo Community and those that work closest with our orangutans are thrilled to watch Tua become a mother again and watch this baby grow,” says the Andrew J. Baker Curator of Primates and Small Mammals Michael Stern. “It is an honor to care for and work with these animals, and we all feel the magnitude this birth has in the protection of this species.”
“This successful outcome is a testament to the animal care, nutrition and veterinary teams that have worked with Tua to greatly improve her health over the last eight years,” says Director of Animal Health Dr. Donna Ialeggio. “Finding practical strategies to both maintain a healthy weight and treat her chronic Orangutan Respiratory Disease Syndrome with twice daily nebulization therapies are a testament to the ingenuity and dedication of our staff.”
In 2009, Tua successfully gave birth to and raised one female offspring, Batu. Batu stayed with Tua and Sugi at the Zoo through 2021. When the time was right and she and her family showed the behavioral signs it was time for Batu to leave her family, the SSP paired her with a male at Woodland Park Zoo in
Seattle, Washington, where she is now expecting her first baby this September. In 1928, Philadelphia Zoo was the first to successfully breed orangutans. Since then, the Zoo has had 19 more successful births.
Orangutan babies are born after an 8-month gestation and are totally dependent on their mothers. The baby is able to cling to its mother’s fur. Babies will nurse from their mothers for up to 6 years, but can start eating solid foods at 4 months old. Offspring will stay with their moms until they reach adolescence at 7 to 10 years old. In the wild, fathers typically don’t play a role in raising the young; in zoos, depending on personality, many orangutans do enjoy living together with their mate. After allowing time for Tua and the baby to bond, we will allow Tua, the baby and dad Sugi to be together if they choose to be. Tua and Sugi live together most of the time.
Sumatran orangutans live in primary and secondary forests of Sumatra, an island of Indonesia. They are the only members of the great ape family to spend most of their time off the ground. Their legs are short, but they have long, muscular arms to help them climb high in the trees. They primarily eat fruits, but also eat leaves, inner bark and various types of non-leafy vegetation. Orangutans are the most solitary of the great apes, but they exhibit a wide range of sociality across their range and may be extremely social when they do associate with other orangutans.
Yes, they are running war game simulations to anticipate what they think is the guarantee that the Democrats are going to try to steal the election in November. Among the possibilities they ran? Barbra Streisand kidnapped by Hamas. Antifa-BLM protesters taking over a migrant detention facility. The FBI arresting Donald Trump two days after winning the election.
“As things stand right now, there’s a zero percent chance of a free and fair election,” saidMike Howell, executive director of Heritage’s Oversight Project. “I’m formally accusing the Biden administration of creating the conditions that most reasonable policymakers and officials cannot in good conscience certify an election.”
The report said a key finding was that the sitting president is the greatest danger to the peaceful transition of power, with no mention of Trump’s efforts to overturn his 2020 loss. Instead it offered that conclusion as justification for doubting the outcome of the 2024 election and trying to reject anything other than a Trump victory. Trump himself has repeatedly declined tosay he will accept the results or rule out a violent response. He has told his supporters that he can only lose through cheating.
Howell said the exercise would lead Heritage to file more litigation over election procedures. He also said it should help the public resist “psychological operations” that he claimed were used in 2020 and are being used again. He didn’t say who supposedly ran the operations.
“The upshot is that we will see a contested election the likes of which we’ve never seen,” said Adam Ellwanger, a rhetoric professor at the University of Houston-Downtown who helped lead the simulation. “If we see the kind of manipulations that we saw in 2020, I wonder if average Americans who are supporters of the president [Trump] will swallow that so easily as they did in 2020.”
The simulation, known as the “2024 Transition Integrity Project,” is technically independent of the Heritage Foundation but included multiple Heritage employees. The full list of participants was withheld, which Howell said was for their safety. Another participant present Thursday was Josh Findlay, who was until recently the Republican National Committee’s director of election integrity operations. Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts spoke at the end of the event.
I guess this doesn’t surprise me. The Big Lie is the main organizing principle of the Republican Party and the cult has been programmed to believe that Donald Trump simply cannot lose the election. If they lose they are going to go completely nuts.
I’ll be looking forward to all the viral videos of Democrats saying that Biden can’t win used as evidence in the event that he does pull it off.
That’s how Trump characterized his VP search on a radio show today. He was lying about it being highly sophisticated but it is very much like the Apprentice which Trump thinks is what politics is all about.
The news is all over the choice right now. Is it going to be Vance? Well, Don Jr, his most fervent supporter will be speaking right before the announcement at the convention so… On the other hand, Doug Burgum is right out of Central Casting. he looks like he could be on the three dollar bill! And then there’s Li’l Marco who I think everyone knows Trump is just fucking with.
The thing that none of the media is talking about is the fact that Trump is choosing a new VP in the first place? He had one, remember? And he was the most adoring sycophant any narcissistic megalomaniac could ever hope for. Why isn’t he on the ticket again?
Well, we know why, don’t we? And not only isn’t he on the ticket he and most of Trump’s former cabinet are refusing to endorse him. That is the important context within which this exciting “Apprentice VP search is happening. The media should make sure they mention that whenever they talk about it. But they won’t and that’s a problem.
[W]hile the contenders have various pluses and minuses, they share two qualities. They all looked at what happened on January 6 and decided they were still willing to take the VP slot, and they’ve all spent the last several months publicly supplicating to Trump by winking at 2020 election denial and pooh-poohing questions of whether they would accept the results of the 2024 race.
Trump’s coup failed because brave Republicans — Pence above all — were willing to put their loyalty to the Constitution over their personal loyalty to Trump. By definition, anyone who wants to be his vice president today is saying they would make a different choice. Journalists should keep those stakes front and center as they cover Trump’s running mate pick.
That’s a big part of the story. It’s even interesting and exciting. Why won’t the media tell it?
Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-WI) on Thursday accused “the angry feminist movement” of emasculating men and said the U.S. should “work our way back” to 1960 if former President Donald Trump wins in November.
In a House floor speech that could have been lifted from Margaret Atwood’s dystopian novel The Handmaid’s Tale, Grothman went after supporters of government-funded childcare programs and said President Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty “took the purpose out of the man’s life, because now you have a basket of goodies for the mom.” He added, “They’ve taken away the purpose of the man to be part of a family. And if we want to get America back to, say, 1960, where this was almost unheard of, we have to fundamentally change these programs.”
Grothman said “the breakdown of the family” was caused by the U.S. government in the 1960s and “people like Angela Davis, well-known communist, people like the feminists who were so important in the 1960s.”
“So I hope the press corps picks up on this, and I hope Republican and Democrat leadership put together some sort of plan for January, in which we work our way back to where America was in the 1960s,” he added.
Grothman, a fervent supporter of Trump, hailed the overturning of Roe v. Wadein June 2022, saying after the decision: “Over the years, millions of children have had their dreams stolen before seeing the light of the day. But today marks a brighter future for the hearts and minds of unborn children, women, and families.
“I commend the six justices who voted to overturn Roe for having the courage to base their decision on sound legal principles rather than a fashionable line of thinking that rules academia, Hollywood, and the mainstream media.”
This is the Trump cult.
I would vote for a pile of fetid garbage if that’s what’s on the ticket against these throwbacks.
Last night Biden questioned the reliability of the polls and he’s not wrong. They’re very weird this year, not necessarily in terms of the close race, which they almost all show, but in the cross tabs which keep featuring weird stuff that doesn’t make sense like Trump only being ahead in single digits among white people while garnering huge numbers among African Americans. I don’t know what the problem is but I’m finding myself very skeptical that we’re getting a real look at the state of the race from public polling.
Anyway, yesterday the Washington Post/ABC Ipsos poll had Biden at 42% and Trump at 43%, essentially tied. Here’s another respected poll the NPR Marist poll today:
With just days to go before the start of the Republican National Convention, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump continue to be closely matched among registered voters in both a head-to-head matchup and a multicandidate field.
It too has weird cross tabs so I don’t know what to think. I dis find this interesting, however:
Americans are overwhelmingly more concerned about a president who plays fast and loose with the facts than someone who is too old to serve. Nearly seven in ten Americans (68%) think it is more concerning if a president does not tell the truth. Nearly one in three (32%) think it is more concerning if someone is too old to serve. Democrats (85%), independents (66%), and a slim majority of Republicans (51%) agree that dishonesty is of greater concern over advanced age.
If that was true, you would think Biden would win in a landslide. But you have to consider that many Republicans have been brainwashed to believe that Trump is an innocent truth-teller while Biden and his “crime family” are inveterate liars. Still, it’s interesting that so many people in both parties still at least pay lip service to the idea that honesty is important. (Note that only 51% of GOP voters believe that which indicates that at least half of them know that Trump is a lying sack of shit.)
Here are a few more interesting, if confounding findings:
Majority Believes Biden Has the Character to be President, Trump Falls Short
52% of Americans think Biden has the character to serve as president. 47% disagree. 50% of independents and just 10% of Democrats question Biden’s character to serve as president.
A majority of Americans (56%), including 18% of Republicans and 58% of independents, do not think Trump has the character to be President of the United States.
Biden Viewed as Lacking the Mental Fitness to Serve, Americans Divide About Trump
Nearly two in three Americans (64%), including 38% of Democrats and 35% of Biden supporters, do not think Biden has the mental fitness to serve as president. 68% of independents say the same.
Americans divide (50% mentally fit to 49% mentally unfit) about Trump’s mental acuity.
Nearly Six in Ten Think Trump will Win
Regardless of whom they plan to support, 59% of Americans think Trump will win this year’s presidential election. Most Republicans (93%) and a majority of independents (58%) think Trump will be victorious. Even 24% of Democrats and 22% of Biden supporters think Trump will win.
Neither Trump nor Biden Should be on the Ballot, Say Majorities
A majority of Americans (56%) do not think that Biden should be the Democratic candidate this year. A similar proportion of Americans (54%) do not think Trump should be the Republican nominee. However, Democrats (40%) are more likely to say that Biden should not be the Democratic candidate than Republicans (13%) are to say that Trump should not be the GOP nominee.
Biden and Trump Favorable Ratings Remain Upside Down
A majority of Americans (51%) have an unfavorable view of Biden, and 43% have a favorable one. Trump’s ratings are similar. 53% have a negative impression of Trump, and 43% have a positive one. Biden and Trump’s favorable ratings are little changed from last month.
Biden’s job approval rating is little changed at 43%. Last month, 41% of Americans approved of how Biden was doing his job. 52% disapprove, and 5% are unsure. One in four residents (25%) strongly approve of Biden’s job performance, and 40% strongly disapprove.
Newsom, Harris, Whitmer Match or Underperform Biden Against Trump
If Biden decides to drop out of the presidential contest, other potential Democratic candidates do not improve the Democrats chances against Trump.
Harris receives support from 50% of registered voters to 49% for Trump.
Newsom garners 50% to 48% for Trump.
Whitmer receives 49% of the vote to 49% for Trump.
Among independents, Trump receives majority support against Harris and Whitmer. Independents divide when asked to choose between Trump and Newsom.
You’ll note that the alternative Democrats are getting about the same as Biden which supports my theory that this election is a battle of coalitions, not a battle of two men (although the fascist coalition is also a personality cult.) More on that later.
I’m not sure that Joe Biden has to go — or stay, at least based on the polls. If I lean toward him going, it’s based upon my observation that the press is so invested in his dropping out that they will make it a lot harder for him to win and in a close race that could make the difference. That’s assuming they wouldn’t do the same to Harris, who some in the media are already accusing of orchestrating a cover-up of Biden’s health because she has been vouching for him. I’m not sure anyone can overcome the press pack because its discovered something that has them very excited:
I’m afraid so. And they’re so overstimulated right now that they may very well chase the dragon and treat Harris the same way.
