ROB SCHMITT (HOST): Do these donors really think that Kamala Harris is going to do better in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania than Joe Biden would? I mean, that’s — because it can’t be anybody else, right?
SEBASTIAN GORKA (GUEST): Rob, you’re being logical. Stop it. All right. She’s a DEI hire, right? She’s a woman. She’s colored. Therefore, she’s got to be good. And at least her brain doesn’t literally freeze in mid-sentence.
That’s what we can expect from the right if Biden drops out. On the other hand, it’s so crude and disgusting it might galvanize the Democrats to come out and beat them. I wish I could be sure of that but I’m not sure of anything right now.
Machetes collected after the Rwandan genocide. Photo: James Nachtwey
Women across the U.S. learned in 2022 that they’d lost control of their bodies when the conservative majority on the Supreme Court overturned Roe. Remember when the prospective justices pledged fealty to stare decisis in their Senate confirmation hearings? Right? Their statements under oath were and are worthless. Because the ends that justify the means with this crowd.
Since Donald Trump lost the presidency in 2020, conservative reactionaries have dropped the coy act. They’re saying out loud what they plan to do to America — to you — when they regain control of the White House. SCOTUS just promised Trump king-like immunity for whatever crimes he commits under the color of official acts. He’s drooling.
The Lincoln Project is made up of former Republicans. They know their former allies. They created a primer on what’s ahead. Yes, they mean to scare you straight. Straight to the voting booth.
Donald Trump’s plan for America is no secret. Beating Trump this November is the only mission. The Lincoln Project invites you to take a peek at the terrible future Donald Trump would impose on America. pic.twitter.com/XyynK48FG6
— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) July 8, 2024
John Yoo authored the infamous Bush administration memos that justified torture of prisoners in violation of the Geneva Conventions. Torture wasn’t about the mythical ticking time-bomb scenario. It was about exacting revenge on suspected terrorists in the wake of the September 11 attacks. In the conservative Matrix, laws are bent to justify criminal acts, revenge, and retribution.
Jonathan Chait wrote recently about Yoo’s concern for norms and his vision for twisting the laws to exact Republican revenge on Democratic enemies:
John Yoo, the former Bush administration lawyer (who himself escaped prosecution for his role in constructing legal justifications to torture detainees, many of whom turned out to be held wrongfully in the first place), has an essay in National Review arguing for revenge prosecutions. The imprimatur of Yoo, a Berkeley law professor and fellow at two of the conservative movement’s least-insane think tanks (the American Enterprise Institute and the Hoover Institution), underscores the progression of “lock her up” from wild seriously-not-literally Trump-campaign demagoguery in 2016 to party doctrine in 2024.
“Repairing this breach of constitutional norms will require Republicans to follow the age-old maxim: Do unto others as they have done unto you,” urges Yoo. “In order to prevent the case against Trump from assuming a permanent place in the American political system, Republicans will have to bring charges against Democratic officers, even presidents.”
Like allegations of stolen elections and voter fraud, no evidence required. Republicans will lock up opponents for unspecified “crimes.”
Trump operatives say their plan is to jail and execute those who don’t support Trump if he wins, echoing Project 2025
These guys are not just cranks with a podcast, like Tim Pool (above). These guys are serious. “Some folks need killing”? Guess who?
Mark Robinson, GOP candidate for North Carolina Governor: “Some folks need killing. It's time for somebody to say it… It's a matter of necessity” pic.twitter.com/QvXuJczQ9P
— National Conservatism (@NatConTalk) July 9, 2024
Conservative reactionaries are being egged on by Trump’s growing thirst for blood:
Trump’s suggestion that there should be a migrant fighting league is dehumanizing and part of a much larger pattern of racism, white supremacy, and nativism against Black and brown people. Channeling Adolf Hitler, Donald Trump has repeatedly described non-white migrants and refugees as “vermin” and “poison” in the blood of the nation. A migrant fight club is the logical next step in such beliefs.
Oh, but those people are not like me? Think again.
And women? Roe was just the beginning. They’re coming for birth control and more.
Had seen the headlines on softening gop platform language on abortion. Jesus, how did people fall for this? I thought it maybe said leave it to the states. No it goes full fetal personhood under 14th. Any news org that fell for this shld be drawn and quartered. Good grief.
Where the 2016 and 2020 Republican platforms called for a national abortion ban, demanded a constitutional amendment to establish due-process rights for embryos and fetuses and stated that “the unborn child has a fundamental right to life which cannot be infringed,” the 2024 platform simply states the Republican Party’s belief that “the 14th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States guarantees that no person can be denied life or liberty without due process and that the states are, therefore, free to pass laws protecting those rights.”
Read “fetal personhood,” couched euphemistically.
Lest I start quoting “First they came for,” recall, we here at Hullabaloo in 2019 got threatened with a defamation suit brought by Trump and the Trump Organization. We treated it as a joke. It’s a fun anecdote to tell at parties. (Like, join the club of people Trump’s threatened to sue.) But under Project 2025 in a second Trump administration, who knows how low down the food chain these fascists will go? Who have you pissed off?
So. Find your local Democrats and donate, volunteer, stat! Local Dems are useless and have no “game”? (Yup, that happens.) Try the local Indivisible or the League of Women Voters. How about Field Team 6? There are lots of ways to impact the trajectory of this election even in a solidly blue state.
My advice? Don’t wind up as political roadkill. Or actual kill.
Zelensky in Washington says “let’s be candid and frank”
“Everyone is waiting for November”: the Americans, the Europeans and the Russians. “The whole world is looking to November” pic.twitter.com/3HmtjqetjJ
CNN caught GenZ Rep. Max Frost (D-FL) Tuesday morning and he, like other younger party electeds, is standing behind Joe Biden:
Frost said that he had discussions with young voters, during which he said he heard concerns about Project 2025 — a playbook from the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation for a potential Trump presidency — not about Biden’s age. Former President Donald Trump has sought to distance himself from Project 2025, claiming he doesn’t know anything about it.
Frost added that he plans to head to New Hampshire this weekend to continue engaging with young voters.
Frost said he is convinced Biden will secure a second term this November and help Democrats regain control of the House.
Why, I don’t know, but electeds like Frost, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other members of The Squad seem not just cooler than some of the old party hands, but have kept cooler heads during the public freakout over Biden’s awful June 27 debate. The Congressional Black Caucus remains committed to Biden. Others who have asked Biden to step aside are accepting that he will not.
A week and a half after Joe Biden’s unsettling debate performance prompted widespread concerns over his mental and physical fitness and ability to defeat Donald Trump, there’s no indication he is even considering dropping out of the presidential race. But while the 81-year-old president has repeatedly insisted he’s still fit to serve and can and will defeat Donald Trump in November, a sizable number of congressional Democrats remain unconvinced — and there are at least some signs they may try to pressure him to step aside so he can be replaced as the party’s nominee. How many ultimately do so, in what way, and whether their efforts make a difference remains to be seen. Biden and his allies on Capitol Hill are already fighting back.
NYT still front-paging a story on Biden and Parkinson’s based solely on innuendo and now thoroughly debunked by the White House.
— Dan Froomkin (PressWatchers.org) (@froomkin) July 9, 2024
It seems the Monday verbal slugfest in the White House press room was prompted by half-assed re-reporting from the New York Times (Washington Post):
On Saturday morning, the New York Post reported that Kevin Cannard, “a Parkinson’s disease expert at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center,” met with Biden’s personal physician, Kevin O’Connor, at the White House in January. They were joined, the Post reported, by a cardiologist.
That same day, Alex Berenson — who gained fame as a purveyor of misinformation during the pandemic — noted on Substack that Cannard had made more than a half-dozen visits to the White House in the past year. Berenson described this information as being “VERY URGENT.”
On Monday, the New York Times covered the visits, walking through the timeline of Cannard’s visits. “Parkinson’s Expert Visited the White House Eight Times in Eight Months,” the headline read. The report triggered a flurry of questions during Monday’s White House press briefing, during which Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, insisted that privacy and security constraints limited her ability to discuss the visits.
— emptywheel (checking account) (@emptywheel) July 9, 2024
The White House posted a memorandum from O’Connor debunking the Parkisnon’s story late Monday. Or reporters could have just Googled Biden’s health report from February, but where are the hot takes and clicks in that?
Marcy Wheeler: “This conspiracy theory started from NYPost and Alex Berenson. People who call themselves journalists took as their assignment editors a right wing propaganda outlet and a notorious conspiracy theorist.”
Who lacks fitness for their jobs?
I’m beginning to wonder if the entire Washington press corps is a Russian psyop. How’s that for a conspiracy theory?
As we all watch with bated breath for Joe Biden to verbally stumble I thought I’d just take a moment to remind ourselves of the kinds of stuff that other guys says. Here’s one from a couple of months ago:
“Our nation was saved by the immortal heroes at Gettysburg. Gettysburg, what an unbelievable battle that was. The battle of Gettysburg, what an unbelievable. I mean it was so, was so much, and so interesting, and so vicious and horrible, and so beautiful in so many different ways — it represented such a big portion of the success of this country. Gettysburg, wow! I go to Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, to look and to watch. And uh the statement of Robert E. Lee, who’s no longer in favor — did you ever notice that? He’s no longer in favor. ‘Never fight uphill, me boys, never fight uphill.’ They were fighting uphill, he said. Wow, that was a big mistake, he lost his great general and uh they were fighting uphill. ‘Never fight uphill, me boys,’ but it was too late.”
Trump goes on a weird rant about the battle of Gettysburg and then notes of Robert E Lee that "he's no longer in favor. Did you ever notice that?" pic.twitter.com/hs9GjmCh6K
It’s 120 days until Election Day, and our model thinks the presidential election could go either way. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 481 out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in 516 of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In 3 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.
It might not seem like it based on the panicked reaction to Biden’s poor debate performance nearly two weeks ago, but the election is still a considerable ways away. This means there is a lot of uncertainty about where the polls will end up on Nov. 5. In turn, the 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators. Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win — clear in the opposite direction of national polls.
538’s focus on uncertainty partially explains why our election forecast has not moved much in reaction to new national polls showing Trump gaining on Biden. In effect, we are hedging our bets, putting more weight on the so-called “fundamentals” because we believe the campaign could be volatile or polls could be biased. The other big factor explaining our model’s relative stability is the flurry of swing-state polls that were published over the weekend, most good for Biden. The average swing-state poll published since July 6 has Trump leading Biden by 1 point, compared to his 2.2-point lead in national polls today.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
—G. Elliott Morris
Also:
There’s a new chart on the 538 forecast showing the divide between the Electoral College and popular vote for 2024. Currently the forecast suggests Biden would need to win the popular vote by 2 points to win the election, a decline compared to 2020
Seriously, it’s like a 4th grader’s book report — and the 4th grader didn’t read the book. Utterly embarrassing. Steve Benen does a nice job of succinctly critiquing it:
The preamble: Before the blueprint begins in earnest, there’s a preamble, spanning nearly three pages, which appears to have been written by Trump himself. It’s filled with vapid, all-caps, bumper-sticker-style declarations, featuring a combination of vague goals and proposals that President Joe Biden has already delivered.
Here it is. Definitely a Trump special. Replete with inappropriate caps and bad punctuation.
Our Nation’s History is filled with the stories of brave men and women who gave everything they had to build America into the Greatest Nation in the History of the World. Generations of American Patriots have summoned the American Spirit of Strength, Determination, and Love of Country to overcome seemingly insurmountable challenges. The American People have proven time and again that we can overcome any obstacle and any force pitted against us.
…
But now we are a Nation in SERIOUS DECLINE. Our future, our identity, and our very way of life are under threat like never before. Today we must once again call upon the same American Spirit that led us to prevail through every challenge of the past if we are going to lead our Nation to a brighter future.
For decades, our politicians sold our jobs and livelihoods to the highest bidders overseas with unfair Trade Deals and a blind faith in the siren song of globalism. They insulated themselves from criticism and the consequences of their own bad actions, allowing our Borders to be overrun, our cities to be overtaken by crime, our System of Justice to be weaponized, and our young people to develop a sense of hopelessness and despair. They rejected our History and our Values. Quite simply, they did everything in their power to destroy our Country.
In 2016, President Donald J. Trump was elected as an unapologetic Champion of the American People. He reignited the American Spirit and called on us to renew our National Pride. His Policies spurred Historic Economic Growth, Job Creation, and a Resurgence of American Manufacturing. President Trump and the Republican Party led America out of the pessimism induced by decades of failed leadership, showing us that the American People want Greatness for our Country again.
Yet after nearly four years of the Biden administration, America is now rocked by Raging Inflation, Open Borders, Rampant Crime, Attacks on our Children, and Global Conflict, Chaos, and Instability.
Like the Heroes who built and defended this Nation before us, we will never give up. We will restore our Nation of, by, and for the People. We will Make America Great Again.
…
America needs determined Republican Leadership at every level of Government to address the core threats to our very survival: Our disastrously Open Border, our weakened Economy, crippling restrictions on American Energy Production, our depleted Military, attacks on the American System of Justice, and much more.
To make clear our commitment, we offer to the American people the 2024 GOP Platform to Make America Great Again! It is a forward-looking Agenda that begins with the following twenty promises that we will accomplish very quickly when we win the White House and Republican Majorities in the House and Senate.
Benen continues:
The contents: Some of the reporting about the new RNC blueprint has suggested that it was made deliberately more “moderate” than some far-right partisans preferred. Don’t believe it. As American Bridge’s Brandon Weathersby summarized in a statement, “The Republican National Committee platform is one of the most extreme party platforms ever in the history of modern presidential elections.” From immigration to education, taxes to law enforcement, there should be no doubt that this assessment is correct.
The omissions: Hoping to avoid campaign-season attacks, the Republican platform no longer calls for federal prohibitions against abortion and same-sex marriage, but as the editorial board of The Washington Post summarized, “The former president wants the 2024 GOP platform to be anodyne, but don’t be fooled. He has an extreme agenda.”
The language: It was hard not to notice that the new Republican platform condemns “Christian-hating Communists,” which is a phrase with a deeply ugly history.
The length: The party’s platform in 2016 was nearly 60 pages. There were some reports indicating that this total, at Trump’s insistence, would be cut in half. Those reports understated matters: The actual text of the 2024 platform spans roughly 10 pages — reinforcing the fact that the contemporary Republican Party just isn’t serious about governing and policymaking.
The process: While Republicans have spent decades crafting the party’s platform in public, this year, the process was moved behind closed doors. Even more incredibly, Politico published this report on the way in which the platform was approved: “Representatives from Trump’s campaign walked around the room with a ‘vote yes’ sign as voice votes were being held. … One RNC member who was present inquired about why staff of the Trump campaign and RNC were taking photographs of delegates as they voted.”
We all know the real platform is Project 2025, of course. But this is what Trump and his henchmen know will appease his deluded base. It’s up to all of us to make sure the rest of the country knows the truth.
Donald Trump is expected to launch a new legal battle to suppress any damaging evidence from his 2020 election-subversion case from becoming public before the 2024 election, preparing to shut down the potency of any “mini-trials” where high-profile officials could testify against him.
The plans come after the US supreme court last week in its ruling that broadly conferred immunity on former presidents opened the door for the US district judge Tanya Chutkan to hold evidentiary hearings – potentially with witnesses – to determine what acts in the indictment can survive.
In the coming months, Trump’s lawyers are expected to argue that the judge can decide whether the conduct is immune based on legal arguments alone, negating the need for witnesses or multiple evidentiary hearings, the people said.
If prosecutors with the special counsel Jack Smith press for witnesses such as former vice-president Mike Pence or White House officials to testify, Trump’s lawyers are expected to launch a flurry of executive privilege and other measures to block their appearances, the people said.
The plans, which have not been previously reported, are aimed at having the triple effect of burying damaging testimony, making it harder for prosecutors to overcome the presumptive immunity for official acts, and injecting new delay into the case through protracted legal fights.
Cute that they would argue there’s no need for evidentiary hearings when they are demanding — and getting — them for every little thing in the Florida trial. But I guess that’s to be expected as are the claims of executive privilege, which is a convenient catch-22 sinc e the whole point is to determine if the behavior was an official or unofficial act.
The idea of this “mini-trial” si great. But I have to admit that I wondered if they would be able to pull it off. The courts seem unable to act in haste when it comes to Trump’s criminality in this election year. The closer we get to the election the less it seems likely.
It’s possible for two conflicting ideas to be true at once.
And so it is with the mainstream media’s unrelenting focus on Joe Biden’s mental acuity, following his terrible debate performance earlier this month.
First truth: the president’s stumble and the political fallout that followed is a huge, consequential news story that deserves a lot of coverage.
Second truth: the media coverage is overkill – not only too much in quantity and too breathless in tone, but also taking up so much oxygen that a story even more important is shoved to the back burner.
That bigger story, of course, is the former president’s appalling unfitness for office, not only because he tried to overturn a legitimate election and is a felon, out on bail and awaiting sentencing, but because of things he has said and done in very recent weeks. As just one example, he claimed that he doesn’t know anything about Project 2025, the radical rightwing plan hatched by some of his closest allies to begin dismantling our democracy if he wins another term. Trump’s disavowal is a ridiculous lie, but I doubt most members of the public know anything about it, nor do they likely know much – if anything – about Project 2025.
But anyone following mainstream media coverage could not miss knowing about the latest polls on whether Biden should step aside, how Kamala Harris would fare in a head-to-head competition with Trump, and which members of Congress have called for a new Democratic nominee.
And those are just the news stories – not to mention the nonstop punditry on cable news and the near takeover of the opinion sections of major publications.
Meanwhile, what of Trump’s obvious cognitive decline, his endless lies, his shocking plans to imprison his political enemies and to deport millions of people he calls “animals”, his relationship with the late accused sex-trafficker Jeffrey Epstein?
“Sure, you can say, we’ve covered those things,” commented Norman Ornstein, emeritus scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a longtime observer of media and politics. But, Ornstein pushed back: “Where? On the front page above the fold? As one-offs before moving on? In a fashion comparable to the Defcon 1 coverage of Biden’s age and acuity?”
There really is no comparison in the amount or intensity of coverage. One journalist, Jennifer Schulze, counted New York Times stories related to Biden’s age in the week following the debate; she counted a staggering 192 news and opinion pieces, compared to 92 stories on Trump – and that was in a week when the US supreme court had ruled he has immunity for official acts.
Nor is there much self-scrutiny or effort to course-correct. Only self-satisfaction and an apparent commitment to more of the same.
Erik Wemple of the Washington Post queried the Times about any pushback, specifically from the White House. “Have you gotten any complaints about age coverage since the debate?” Wemple asked top Times editor Joe Kahn, who recently praised the paper’s coverage in a note to staff. Kahn said no.
[…]
Where does that leave us?
All of these disturbing elements – the Democrats’ dilemma, the media’s failures, and the cult-like, unquestioning support of Trump – could add up to one likelihood in November.
A win for Trump, and a terrible loss for democracy.
Biden’s debate performance made discussions of his age big news. Nobody can suggest otherwise. But if someone was looking for him to bow out, this aggressive, petty, non-stop frenzied media pile-on made it less likely. On a human level, nobody would want to be chased down and beaten up in front of the whole world. On a political level it’s not unlikely that a lot of Democratic voters don’t like the idea of their candidate being beaten up like this either, especially by media elites.
Meanwhile, Orange Hitler is waiting in the wings and these people yawn and say it’s old news. And the freakout is damaging Biden and the Democrats every day it continues.
Chris Hayes’ show has been the best during this Biden crisis in my opinion. Measured, fair and insightful.
"I don't think the polls are all wrong. But we have no idea what the future will bring. And as France just showed the world, there is still time to do the hard work necessary to beat back the right-wing authoritarians again," says @chrislhayes on lessons from France's elections. pic.twitter.com/jUpkPwrydK
— All In with Chris Hayes (@allinwithchris) July 10, 2024
“There are a few areas where it’s just so starkly clear what the choices are in November. Climate is one of them—as we watch the world cook.” —@Chrislhayes with a warning about Republicans' Project 2025pic.twitter.com/ff8TSzIq05
I can’t find a video of the interview with Dave Roberts and Jamelle Bouie but if you happen to record his show and haven’t watched it yet I urge you to do it. It’s the most thoughtful discussion I’ve heard since this crisis began. We need more of this.
There’s a new USA Today poll that show Harris beating Trump by one point and Trump beating Biden by one point. (They also polled Hillary Clinton for some reason and she beats Trump by two points.) In other words, it tells us nothing.
Then there’s this:
I don't think of Emerson as the best pollster but on its face this isn't terribly good data for the switch scenario. pic.twitter.com/ZUu5MYYDlZ
As you can see, Biden does best against Trump but they all lose.
If we were to take all this at face value we’d say that this is a party problem more than a Biden problem. And I’m not sure it’s any more of a problem than it’s been through this whole cycle so far.
And then there’s this:
The most important result in our new national poll of registered voters is that a majority of 53% of all voters believe that Donald Trump and his administration would represent “a grave danger to democracy continuing in the United States,” if he wins the election.👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/G8zIAegVoR
Today it does look as if Biden is staying in. And as I’ve been writing since this crisis began, (and even before, to tell you the truth) this isn’t about the candidates as much as it’s about a worldview that’s clashing all over the world. It would be very helpful if we had a president who was vital and exciting but we don’t. And the other side may have someone who’s exciting but he’s also an imbecile who is loathed by half the country.
It’s been close all year and nothing has changed. Yet. Gird yourself.
