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Cancel Culture GOP Style

The GOPers want to cancel Joe Biden’s Stare of the Union speeches because he’s so divisive. You really can’t make this stuff up:

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) said GOP leadership should reconsider how they invite presidents to give the State of the Union address, citing President Biden‘s “divisive” speech.

 Emmer argued Biden’s remarks were a “hyper-partisan” campaign speech, telling Axios the president should not be invited to address Congress next year if he’s elected to a second term.

The Minnesota Republican said he’s bullish on former President Trump‘s odds of defeating Biden in November, but felt Biden’s speech should have had a more unifying tone.

“That was about the most divisive State of the Union — I wouldn’t extend him an invitation next year, if that’s what we’re going to get,” Emmer said during an interview at the House GOP retreat.

“He’s not going to be there next year — it’ll be a different president. But I think you’ve got to rethink issuing invitations for a State of the Union if it’s not going to be a State of the Union, and that was not. That was a campaign speech,” he added.

Emmer is not the first Republican to float blocking Biden from giving the annual speech, with multiple members having sought to prevent the president from speaking this year.

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) introduced a bill aimed at barring Biden from delivering the speech unless he submitted his budget and national security proposal on time.

Former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry (R-Pa.) called for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to rescind his invitation unless Biden took stronger action to address securing the border.

As political polarization has grown, the State of the Union has become an increasingly tense and partisan affair — with Republicans heckling Biden each of the last two years.

This silly “I know you are but what am I” trolling is so, so tiresome. These people are juvenile hooligans but it’s Biden’s fault because he made them do it. And this includes leaders like Tom Emmer who was reputed to be a mature adult in the room.

Many of the remaining semi-normal Republicans have had enough. Colorado right winger ken Buck announced last year that he wouldn’t run for re-election and just last week announced that he wasn’t even going to stay for the rest of the term. Kevin McCarthy checked out early too:

In the House, several Republicans who’ve announced retirements or resignations are longtime lawmakers like Buck known for adhering to congressional norms and traditions rather than the more disruptive tactics of the far right. Some of the GOP retirees in both chambers have expressed concerns about the increasingly Trump-centric and partisan direction their party is taking. And multiple lawmakers who are retiring have cited general congressional dysfunction, from difficulty passing major legislation to petty infighting, as a central reason for their departure.

“I’m sure the leadership chaos on the Republican side is not helping keep members in Congress,” Kyle Kondik, a political analyst and managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, told Vox in December. “Overall, though, the House just does not seem like a very pleasant place to be.”

No it certainly doesn’t seem like a pleasant place to be.

The Threat

Dan Pfeiffer makes this observation about Trump’s grotesque behavior:

The man who tried to violently overturn the election promising a “bloodbath” if he loses sparked alarm across the political spectrum. Trump supporters argued that the former President was speaking specifically about the auto industry. Some pundits chastised Democrats — including the Biden campaign — for taking Trump out of context.

This is overly pedantic idiocy.

Following the logic of any Trump speech is nearly impossible. The comment came during a section about Chinese competition in car manufacturing, so maybe he was taken out of context. But that’s so far beyond the point. Much like his legal strategy, Trump is trying to get off on a technicality. The bloodbath comment is not new nor is it out of character. If you are arguing that Trump didn’t really mean bloodbath, you lost the forest for the trees a long time ago. He has threatened violence if he gets convicted or loses the election. Just a few weeks ago, Trump warned there would be a “civil war” in the U.S. if he lost.

Either way, Trump has political violence on the brain. At the rally, Trump saluted as an alternative version of the national anthem. This anthem was originally performed by criminals convicted of assaulting the Capitol on January 6th and recorded by phone from prison. That sentence is almost too ridiculous to be true, but it sadly is. The anthem from the J6 Choir played after the announcement urged the audience to “please rise for the horribly and unfairly treated Jan. 6 hostages.”

There’s nothing new in Trump’s bloodbath comment. We know what he meant. Any sentient being gets it. It’s a threat.

That wasn’t the only twisted thing Trump did at his rally last weekend, though. Here’s one memorable moment:

Pfeiffer has this advice for the Democrats:

What Trump is doing is very dangerous. Sure, a President pardoning people who committed crimes on his behalf is bad for democracy and the rule of law. However, the real danger of promising pardons to people who commit political violence is that it will beget more violence. Trump is promising a “get out of jail free” card to people who act violently on his behalf. Imagine how someone hopped up on Right Wing propaganda and conspiracy theories might act if they have no fear of legal accountability and the hope of being hailed a hero by Trump.

Ultimately, this is how we should frame Trump’s pardon promise and dangerous rhetoric around future political violence. A Navigator Research poll found that more than 80% of Americans are concerned about political violence today and in the future. Voters also see Republicans — and Trump — as more prone to political violence. Independents say Republicans are more prone to political violence than Democrats by a 15-point margin.

The best argument is not that Trump was responsible for January 6th, but that he is actively encouraging similar political violence.

CBS News poll found that nearly 80% of voters disapprove of the actions of the people who entered the Capitol on January 6th.

He points out that the January 6th rioters are very unpopular with a majority of Americans. Even a MAGA majority disapproves so while he gets big cheers from his ecstatic cult followers at his rallies, most Republicans don’t see them as heroes.

On the other hand, according to a CBS poll only one third of his coalition explicitly doesn’t want them pardoned but I guess those are the voters he keeps saying he doesn’t need.

How to Make Trump Pay

Trump’s rhetoric is dangerous for democracy, but also provides a big opportunity for Democrats, especially with the voters Trump needs to win in November. A Data for Progress poll found that 57% of Independents are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the January 6th attack.

Here are some quick thoughts on how make the case:

Trump’s Support of Violence is an Example of His Extremism: Pardoning and saluting people who commit political violence is evidence of a dangerous level of extremism. These are candidates who will ban abortion, contraception, and IVF and cut Social Security and Medicare. January 6th and democracy are not top of mind for every voter, but Trump’s position on those issues can open the door to other arguments about the dangers of his extremism.

Trump is Focused on Himself: I haven’t seen any polling about Trump pardoning January 6th rioters on day one, but I am 100% positive that it would be incredibly unpopular. One of the best arguments against Trump is that he is only running for President to help himself, reward his friends and punish his enemies. Trump’s pledge to pardon violent criminals before helping the rest of us really helps tell that story.

Be Detailed About January 6th: Late last year, Bryan Bennett of Navigator Research outlined some advice on how to talk about January 6th. Here are the most resonating statements:

More than 2,000 rioters ultimately broke into the Capitol, many of whom vandalized and looted parts of the building (69 percent true, 72 percent concerning);

Approximately 140 police officers were assaulted by rioters (64 percent true, 71 percent concerning);

Five people died as a result of the events on January 6th, including Capitol police officers (60 percent true, 75 percent concerning); and,

More than a thousand people have been arrested for their actions on January 6th (62 percent true, 66 percent concerning).

He also says that they should highlight the pledge to pardon them on Day 1 which shows that he puts a greater priority on that than the issues most of them care about.

Focusing on the January 6th stuff sounds right to me. I happened to be in a room with some civilians (non-political types) when that footage of the January 6th national anthem intro came on with Trump saluting the insurrectionist choir and when I drew their attention to it they were gobsmacked. A lot of people really are not aware of just how radical he’s become on this subject. They need to know.

Also, in case you are wondering if Trump means it when he says he wants to be a dictator.

This has made very clear what he wants and this time he believes he’s going to get it.

Trump’s Biggest Mistake

He just can’t quit January 6th

The loss of the 2020 election was such a blow to Trump’s fragile psyche that he perpetuated the Big Lie and tried to overturn the election culminating in his incitement to insurrection on January 6th. He can’t let it go even though it constantly reminds the nation of the worst day of his presidency:

The rallies start with a recording of January 6 prisoners singing the national anthem. Campaign staff hand out pre-made “Too Big to Rig” signs to supporters. When the candidate takes the stage, he calls the rioters “people who love our country” and “hostages unfairly imprisoned for long periods of time.”

There is nothing subtle about how central Donald Trump has made January 6, 2021, to his campaign. More than just continuing to feed denialism and conspiracies about the 2020 election, he is constantly distorting the reality of what happened that day, preaching vindication to his base of voters.

In ways big and small – but often overlooked because they have become so commonplace at his events –  the former president glosses over the violence. He promises pardons for the people who committed it.

On this, Trump and President Joe Biden agree: January 6 itself is a central issue of the 2024 campaign and will be even if Trump’s trials on related indictments get delayed past Election Day.

It’s Biden’s campaign aides who have been surprised how much that’s true.

“People know what happened on January 6,” said Mike Donilon, one of Biden’s closest advisers. “I think most of the country is going to say, ‘We don’t embrace political violence. We do embrace democracy. We do embrace the rule of law. We’re not interested in pardoning people who ransacked the Capitol, and we’re going to have a real problem supporting someone who embraces all that.’”

Though Donilon and a few others — including Vice President Kamala Harris, in private conversations to CNN — had been adamant for three years that January 6 would continue reverberating, Biden aides use words like “stunning” to describe the way Trump has not just kept January 6 present, but burrowed ever deeper into conspiracy theories that are embraced in the right-wing echo chamber but push away more mainstream voters.

And while Biden aides in the Wilmington reelection office have been closely monitoring Trump’s rallies, stockpiling clips for future use to likely pair with the many disturbing videos of the mob breaking down the doors and attacking police, they don’t need to go further than keeping an eye on Trump’s Truth Social account.

“My first acts as your next President will be to Close the Border, DRILL, BABY, DRILL, and Free the January 6 Hostages being wrongfully imprisoned!” he wrote.

Some Biden aides say they were shocked that January 6 keeps coming up in every focus group, to the point that Democratic operatives these days tend to use words like “indelible image” or “scar tissue” to describe how the memories still hit.

“We were all surprised,” acknowledged one senior Democrat involved with the reelection effort, asking not to be named to describe private strategy development.

“Anyone who is being honest was surprised Jan. 6 continues to be this resonant,” the person added. “But in hindsight, when you combine extreme rhetoric, extreme policy and lasting imagery, that ends up being a pretty powerful memory.”

He thinks a majority of the country is represented by the adoring worshipers at his rallies. He’s wrong.

And I’m not surprised that it’s still resonant and not just because Trump won’t shut up about it. It’s because it was a shocking, unprecedented event that most of us will never forget. Those pictures of people scaling the walls of the capital, beating police and the QAnon Shaman standing at the podium in the US Senate were indelibly imprinted on our minds. Srue, some people remember it fondly as a great day. But most people don’t and Trump is foolish for reminding them of it all the time.

The problem is that most people aren’t paying enough attention to any of this to even know about it. It’s important that we tell them.

Trump’s Shows Mercy (for Medicare fraudsters)

In the last months of his presidency he pardoned a bunch of them.

Following up on the post below, here’s an example of how Trump dealt with the “waste, fraud and abuse” which he now says is his actual plan to cut Social Security and Medicare:

In an attempt to clean up comments he made this week about “cutting” entitlement programs, former president Donald Trump has vowed in recent days that he would reduce spending on Social Security and Medicare by targeting waste and fraud in those programs.

However, a review of Trump’s record shows that, in the closing months of his presidency, he used his clemency powers to help several people convicted in major Medicare fraud cases, including commuting the sentence of a man the Justice Department had described as having “orchestrated one of the largest health care fraud schemes in U.S. history.”

In his last year in office, Trump commuted the sentences of at least five people who collectively filednearly $1.6 billion in fraudulent claims through Medicare or Medicaid.

Among them was Judith Negron, the former owner of a Miami-area mental health company who was sentenced in 2011 to 35 years in prison for her role in filing $205 million in fraudulent Medicare claims and ordered to pay more than $87 million in restitution. Trump commuted her sentence in February 2020.

Trump also granted clemency that year to Daniela Gozes-Wagner, a Houston woman who was sentenced in 2019 to 20 years in prison for helping falsely bill more than $28 million in claims to Medicare and Medicaid for medical tests that either never happened or were unnecessary. Those tests supposedly took place at 28 testing facilities that turned out to be empty offices — and prosecutors said Gozes-Wagner went so far as to hire “seat warmers” at those offices who were instructed to notify her if Medicare investigators arrived.

In December 2020, Trump commuted the sentence of Philip Esformes, who had been convicted in 2019 “for his role in the largest health care fraud scheme ever charged by the Justice Department, involving over $1.3 billion in fraudulent claims to Medicare and Medicaid for services that were not provided, were not medically necessary or were procured through the payment of kickbacks,”the department said.

Esformes was sentenced to 20 years in prison — but was freed after serving about 4½ years, after Trump granted him clemency. The White House noted at the time that, while in prison, Esformes was “devoted to prayer” and “in declining health.” Esformes was photographed hosting and dancing at his daughter’s lavish wedding days later.

Last month, Esformes pleaded guilty to Medicare fraud again after being retried on unsettled charges that were not included in Trump’s clemency order. As part of a plea agreement, Esformes was sentenced to the time he had already served.

In the final days of his presidency, Trump granted clemency to Salomon Melgen, a Florida eye doctor who had been sentenced to 17 years in prison after being convicted for his role in defrauding Medicare out of $42 million; and to John Estin Davis, a Tennessee health-care executive who had been sentenced the year before to 42 months in prison after being convicted for his role in filing over$4.6 million in fraudulent claims to Medicare.

They bought their pardons by hiring Trump cronies to go to bat for them and since Trump completely bypassed the DOJ pardon office vetting process it was easy peasey. And I’m pretty sure Trump would have gotten a taste for himself. He doesn’t do anything for free. The pardon process under Trump was completely corrupt.

Any promises he makes to “protect” Social Security and medicare by “reforming” it means he’s going to cut benefits and/or privatize it for the benefit of the rich guys on Wall Street he needs to help bankroll his campaign.

Important Reminder

What did Trump actually do when he was president?

This grotesque hagiography of Trump’s allegedly historically successful presidency is beyond parody. Even beyond the horror of his pandemic response was the endless chaos, the terrorist attacks, the massive foreign policy embarrassments, the rampant corruption. It was a shitshow from start to finish.

But apparently people have forgotten what it was like and see him as some sort of benign caretaker at worst which is stunning. He did things. And they weren’t good.

In the wake of his startling announcement that he planned to cut SS and medicare Jonathan Cohn took a look at his actual record:

Instead of imagining how he might govern, you can look at what he actually did — especially on three issues that matter a lot to most Americans.

Trump’s History On Abortion And Obamacare

One of those issues is reproductive rights, which my colleague Alanna Vagianos has covered in depth.

The issue has proved politically toxic for Republicans ever since the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, ending the federal guarantee of abortion rights. In 2022 and 2023, anger over that decision helped save the Democrats from big losses; in 2024, it could help Biden keep his job.

Trump has promised to find a position on reproductive rights that will “make people happy,” as he put it on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” But in that same interview, he also said that could mean a federal ban of “a number of weeks or months or however you want to define it.” And according to The New York Times, he has privately told advisers that he thinks a 16-week ban makes sense. Such a ban would apply even in those states that have acted through legislation or constitutional amendment to keep abortion legal.

If you are trying to figure out how Trump would actually approach reproductive rights in a second term, you can try to extrapolate from those statements. Or you could look at what he actually did the last time he was in office: He filled the executive branch and judiciary with conservatives opposed to abortion rights, including the three Supreme Court justices who made the Dobbs majority possible.

“[For] 54 years, they were trying to get Roe v. Wade terminated, and I did it,” Trump said in January at a Fox News “town hall” event. “And I’m proud to have done it.”

A second issue is the future of the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare.

Republican attempts to repeal the program in 2017 sparked a furious backlash, and were perhaps the single biggest reason that Democrats took back the House in 2018.

Since then, the program has become more entrenched, with the number of Americans signing up for coverage on its marketplaces at a record level and Medicaid expansion now operating in all but 10 states. Approval of the program has never been higher, according to polling.

Obamacare was a fixture of Trump’s 2016 campaign rhetoric, and was frequently the first thing he mentioned in speeches. He has been less vocal about it this time around, though he has also said that Republicans should “never give up” on repeal and that he’s currently “looking at alternatives” to the existing program.

Here, too, you can try to discern a position or commitment in these statements. Or you can look at what Trump actually did when he was in office, when he spent nearly his first full year trying to wipe the program off the books.

Those repeal bills that provoked all the public anger? They had his full support. And despite his promises of “great health care” with “insurance for everybody,” the actual legislation he tried desperately to push through Congress would have likely left millions more uninsured and dramatically rolled back protections for people with preexisting conditions.

Trump’s History On Prescription Drug Prices

A common element between the abortion and Obamacare issues has been Trump’s deference to Republican leaders and their allies, whether it was letting the right-wing Federalist Society hand-pick court nominees or turning the details of ACA repeal over to anti-government, pro-market crusaders like then-House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.).

That’s not quite the case for a third issue: prescription drug prices.

Trump has demonstrated a real willingness to break with conservatives — and conservative orthodoxy — by attacking the drug industry. As president, he put forward a series of executive actions that many analysts thought might reduce drug prices at the margins. (His administration rushed them through the regulatory process and courts ended up blocking several.)

But Trump had a chance to do a lot more. In 2020, Democrats used their control of the House to pass a sweeping bill that would have given the federal government far more power to set drug prices. Over in the Senate, Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) put together bipartisan legislation that, although weaker than the House version, could have been the basis for a House-Senate compromise on lowering prices for millions.

Their bill never got to the Senate floor, because Republicans controlled the chamber and Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader from Kentucky, wouldn’t allow it. Trump could have pressured GOP leadership in the Senate to relent. He didn’t. He also backed off earlier, campaign-era promises to endorse the kinds of reforms that were in the House bill.

That wasn’t the end of the story for prescription drug reform. When Biden became president and Democrats got full control of Congress for two years, they passed a version of the 2020 House bill. And it has started to take effect. The federal government is negotiating with drug manufacturers over what Medicare will pay for 10 high-cost pharmaceuticals, while seniors for the first time have protections against catastrophic out-of-pocket costs.

Biden has proposed building on those reforms — for example, by making more drugs subject to direct price negotiations. Prominent Republicans want to go in the opposite direction and are already talking about repealing the negotiation provision. They are also talking about national abortion bans, as well as changes to Medicaid and private insurance regulation that look a lot like Obamacare repeal, even if they aren’t using that name.

That’s what he did (or didn’t do) during his first term, the golden MAGA years everyone is so anxious to repeat. And they ended with a disastrous response to the once in a century threat of the COVID pandemic. Don’t forget what really happened.

By the way, guess who was totally on top of the pandemic threat?

Don’t you wish that guy had been in charge when COVID hit?

He’s going to be making the decision if you can get an abortion

This is serious. From last month in the NY Times:

Former President Donald J. Trump has told advisers and allies that he likes the idea of a 16-week national abortion ban with three exceptions, in cases of rape or incest, or to save the life of the mother, according to two people with direct knowledge of Mr. Trump’s deliberations.

Mr. Trump has studiously avoided taking a clear position on restrictions to abortion since Roe v. Wade was overturned in the middle of 2022, galvanizing Democrats ahead of the midterm elections that year. He has said in private that he wants to wait until the Republican presidential primary contest is over to publicly discuss his views, because he doesn’t want to risk alienating social conservatives before he has secured the nomination, the two people said.

Mr. Trump has approached abortion transactionally since becoming a candidate in 2015, and his current private discussions reflect that same approach.

One thing Mr. Trump likes about a 16-week federal ban on abortions is that it’s a round number. “Know what I like about 16?” Mr. Trump told one of these people, who was given anonymity to describe a private conversation. “It’s even. It’s four months.”

He tries to twist himself into a pretzel on this but there’s no way out. He did it and he wants to take credit for it but he doesn’t want the blame for the political fallout. But there’s nothing he can do.

How To Recognize a Trumper

Even if they aren’t wearing a red hat or waving a giant Trump flag

A good rule of thumb from Never Trumper Mike Madrid:

Let me offer some advice when you’re talking to Republican friends, family & neighbors about not voting for Trump. This is how you can tell who is and isn’t voting for Trump.

If someone says “I really don’t like the way he handles himself and his offensive tweets but I like his policies” that person is a Trump voter.

This person knows what they’re doing is wrong but they’re rationalizing the behavior they know is wrong. 

If someone says “I don’t like Trump or his policies but no way I’d ever vote for Biden” this person is a Trump voter.

This person doesn’t care, even enjoys doing the wrong thing and won’t be bothered by being forced to answer for it or think about it. 

If someone says “January 6th was the breaking point for me” or “Trump is mentally unfit” or “He’s dangerous”

This voter has broken the fever swamp. Expect 1 in 10 Republicans to respond this way.

They’re there but don’t be fooled by the first two. They’re Trumpers. 

Among the first two are virtually all GOP officials. Well, except for most of Trump’s former cabinet. The people who know him best. They’re in the third category.

I’ll Drink To That

“I really feel like 2016 was the year that the mask came off”

Still from Phantom of the Opera (1943).

One can only hope. North Carolina’s MAGAfied GOP is turning off once-faithful Republicans and turning them into once-Republicans (USAToday):

Ex-Republican Phebe Roberson, 75, said she “can’t stand” former President Donald Trump and voted against him in North Carolina’s GOP primary earlier this month. 

She also cast a ballot against Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the incendiary Republican gubernatorial candidate who received Trump’s endorsement ahead of the primary. 

The right fringe, she says, has “stolen my Republican party.” She cast her primary ballot for Nikki Haley.

Justin Bradford, 47, of Pinehurst, once voted a straight Republican ticket, but began moving away from the GOP a dozen years ago when he switched his registration to unaffiliated and voted for Barack Obama.

Still, he said the Republican party “hadn’t really turned the corner yet.” 

“I really feel like 2016 was the year that the mask came off,” Bradford said. 

North Carolina’s fall election will be consequential not only for Joe Biden but for the state’s Democrats.

The “road to the presidency” goes through North Carolina, term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D) tells reporters. Except for Obama’s win in 2008, Republicans have won the state’s electoral votes for nearly half a century.

Then, of course, there is Michele Morrow, the NC GOP’s home-schooling candidate for superintendent of the state’s schools. She’s the Witch of the East to Robinson’s “worse than the other one” Witch of the West. Robinson advocates a total ban on abortion.

Bradford said he’s thinking about his 18-year-old daughter in both the gubernatorial and presidential election. 

“I have some genuine concerns for my daughter for the kind of world, you know, she’s going to operate in now as an adult,” Bradford said. 

“I don’t want to be super dire about things. But I’m a little bit freaked out right now.” 

Listen to those feelings, Justin.

There are just 99 Republicans in my very blue precinct, 627 unaffiliateds (80% vote blue) , and 727 Democrats. In North Carolina’s March 5, semi-closed primary, Nikki Haley received 77 votes, Trump 36, Chris Christie 2 and 2 No preferences. The voter history files are not updated yet to indicate how many UNAs voted a GOP ballot. Obviously, some voted in the GOP primary, likely for Nikki Haley. In the large, heavily red county to the south, Haley received 31%. I’ll take that as a good sign for November.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day. See you at the brew pub later.

(h/t BF)

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For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

Ground Zero For Election Denialism

No vaccine yet for MAGA fever

Protect Election Integrity sign at Turning Point Action rally, Phoenix, Arizona.. Photo (2021) by Gage Skidmore via Flickr (CC BY-SA 2.0 DEED).

That’s the thing about democracy. When it’s working smoothly no one notices. Public officials derided as the Deep State do their jobs, underpaid compared to the private sector, and deliver your mail, take away your trash, deposit your Social Security checks, run your police department. A small army of them administer elections in your state, unseen save for the handful of retirees you see every two years at your polling station.

“Nobody knew who we were, what we did,” [Arizona Secretary of State Adrian] Fontes said ruefully. “It’s a little bit different now.”

Fontes now has a bodyguard, reports The Guardian:

“It’s very sad,” Fontes said. “It’s a sad state of affairs that in a civil society, in one of the most advanced civilizations that anybody could have imagined, we have to worry about physical violence.”

These are troubled times in Arizona. Until 2020, election officials were the largely anonymous folk who did the important yet unseen work of making democracy run smoothly.

The MAGA cult changed all that, although it’s not as if election conspiracy theories were new on the right. Donald “91 Counts” Trump just supercharged them when he refused to accept defeat in the 2020 election. Arizona became “ground zero for election denial in America.”

In 2020, the Republican-controlled state legislature sponsored a widely discredited “audit” of votes in Maricopa county, the largest constituency, which contain Phoenix. Republican leaders put themselves forward as fake electors in a possibly criminal attempt to flip Joe Biden’s victory in Arizona to Trump’s.

Two years later, in the midterms, armed vigilantes dressed in tactical gear stalked drop boxes in a vain hunt for “mules” stuffing fraudulent ballots into them. Amid the furore, election officials found themselves assailed by online harassment and death threats.

No longer faceless bureaucrats, they had become public enemy No 1.

So the marine veteran and his state elections team are war-gaming out worst-case scenarios for election mishaps this fall. Truthfully, that’s not unique to Fontesand Arizona. Our local elections team does the same, just with less threat of bomb scares and  armed vigilantes stalking polling and vote counting stations.

“Tiger teams” have been assembled to be quickly dispatched across the state to fix software or other voting problems. To anticipate bad actors using artificial intelligence to create malicious deepfakes of candidates, his office has done its own AI manipulations, making videos in which individuals speak fluently in languages they do not know such as German and Mandarin. “They were very, very believable,” Fontes noted.

The election threat index reports that 53% of Arizonans are represented by Republicans in the legislature “with a proven track record of election denial.”

The strain is taking a toll on election workers who have dedicated their careers to fair and accurate administration of elections. Now the once-clerical work may include more security cameras, armed guards, and PTSD.

Arizona is suffering one of the severest brain drains of electoral knowhow in the country. Of its 15 counties, 12 have lost a top election administrator since the last presidential cycle, prised out by a constant barrage of bile.

Most of those quitting are women, a reflection of the predominance of female election officials and the often sexually charged nature of the threats.

Of the five members of the Maricopa county board of supervisors, two have announced they are not standing for re-election. [Clint] Hickman, recipient of the lynching threat, said recently that “it’s gotten worse and worse … I thought I was looking way too much in the rearview mirror”.

It’s a lengthy bit of reporting, but the indepependent state legislature theory cranks haven’t gone away, nor demands for hand counts. COVID-19 is not the pandemic it was in 2020, but there is no vaccine yet for MAGA fever. The people complaining that people are losing faith in elections are the very ones spreading conspiracy theories that undemine that faith.

Rather than reassuring his constituents that local elections are free, fair, and secure, Ron Gould, a Mohave county supervisor, demands hand counts:

Wouldn’t it be easier than moving to costly and cumbersome hand counts simply to tell his constituents that voting machines work?

“They’re hearing that from everybody, and that doesn’t make them believe it’s true. So if hand counts are what they want, I’m going to give them what they want,” he said.

Where does he think this could end?

“In a revolution, actually,” he said. “People are ginned up. They feel disenfranchised, disgusted, that they have no control over their lives or the political direction of their country. If they can’t solve it at the ballot box, then they’re going to do it in other ways.”

Giving them hand counts will not change a thing if Trump does not win, and maybe even if he does. First, because these are people who have rejected democracy except as window dressing for authoritarianism. And second, during a drawn-out, hand-count process, they’ll spread rumors that results are taking so long because dark forces are working to “steal” the election anyway. Feeding the delusion will not cure it. The reasoning is circular.

What happens here is that when MAGA types show up at regular Board of Elections meetings skeptical and intent on finding cheating, they find instead meticulous checks and balances, scrupulously followed that soften their opinions in time. It’s what they don’t know and think they do where conspiracy theories breed.

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For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

Over the hills and far away: 15 films for St. Patrick’s Day

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With Saint Patrick’s celebrations in full swing this weekend, I thought I’d help you get your Irish up and drive those snakes from your media room with 15 grand film recommendations.

Sláinte!

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The Commitments – Casting talented yet unknown actor/musicians to portray a group of talented yet unknown musicians was a stroke of genius by director Alan Parker. This “life imitating art imitating life” trick works wonders. The Commitments can be seen as a riff on Parker’s 1980 film Fame; swapping the locale from New York City to Dublin (there’s a bit of a wink in a scene where one of the band members breaks into a parody of the Fame theme).

However, these working-class kids don’t have the luxury of attending a performing arts academy; there’s an undercurrent referencing the economic downturn in the British Isles. The acting chemistry is superb, but it’s the musical performances that shine, especially from (then) 16-year old Andrew Strong. In 2007, cast member Glen Hansard co-starred in John Carney’s surprise low-budget hit, Once, a lovely character study that would make a perfect double bill with The Commitments.

Darby O’Gill and the Little People – Sean Connery…in a film about leprechauns?! Well, stranger things have happened. Albert Sharpe gives a delightful performance as lead character Darby O’Gill in this 1959 fantasy from perennially family-friendly director Robert Stevenson (Mary Poppins, The Love Bug, The Absent-Minded Professor, That Darn Cat!).

Darby is a crusty yet benign b.s. artist who finds himself embroiled in the kind of tale no one would believe if he told them it were true-matching wits with the King of the Leprechauns (Jimmy O’Dea), who has offered to play matchmaker between Darby’s daughter (Janet Munro) and the strapping pre-Bond Connery. The special effects hold up surprisingly well (considering the limitations of the time). The scenes between Sharpe and O’Dea are especially amusing. “Careful what you say…I speak Gaelic too!”.

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A Date for Mad Mary – Seana Kerslake makes a remarkable debut in Darren Thornton’s 2017 dramedy (co-written by the director with his brother Colin) about a troubled young woman being dragged kicking and screaming (and swearing like a sailor) into adulthood. Fresh from 6 months in a Dublin jail for instigating a drunken altercation, 20-year-old “mad” Mary (Kerslake) is asked to be maid of honor by her BFF Charlene. Assuming that her volatile friend won’t find a date, Charlene refuses her a “plus one”. Ever the contrarian, Mary insists she will; leading to an unexpected relationship.

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Garage – At once heartbreaking and uplifting, this 2007 character study by director Leonard Abrahamson and writer Mark O’Halloran is an underappreciated gem. It’s a deceptively simple story about an emotionally stunted yet affable thirty-something bachelor named Josie (Pat Shortt), who tends a gas station in a small country village (he bunks in the garage). When he befriends a teenager (Conor Ryan) who takes a summer job at the gas station, it unexpectedly sets off a chain of life-shaking events for Josie. Shortt (a popular comic in his home country) gives an astonishing performance. I like the way the film continually challenges expectations. An insightful and affecting glimpse at the human condition.

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Hear My Song – This charming, quirky comedy-drama from writer-director Peter Chelsom (Funny Bones) concerns an Irish club-owner in England (Adrian Dunbar) who’s having a streak of bad luck. He’s not only on the outs with his lovely fiancée (Tara Fitzgerald), but is forced to shut down his venue after a series of dud bookings (like “Franc Cinatra”) puts him seriously in the red. Determined to win back his ladylove and get his club back in the black, he stows away on a freighter headed for his native Dublin. He enlists an old pal to help him hunt down and book a legendary tenor (Ned Beatty, in one of his best roles) who has hasn’t performed publicly in decades. Fabulous script, direction, and acting. Funny, touching and guaranteed to lift your spirits.

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I Am Belfast -I try not to use “visual tone poem” as a descriptive if I can avoid it…but sometimes, there is no avoiding it. As in this case, with Irish director Mark Cousins’ meditation on his beloved home city. Part documentary and part (here it comes) visual tone poem, Cousins ponders the past, present and possible future of Belfast’s people, legacy and spirit.

I’m fairly sure Cousins is going for the vibe of the 1988 Terence Davies film Distant Voices, Still Lives, a similar mélange of sense memory, fluid timelines and painterly visuals (he waxes poetically about the aforementioned film in his epic 15-hour documentary, The Story of Film). Lovely cinematography by Christopher Doyle. A rewarding experience for patient viewers.

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In Bruges – OK, full disclosure. In my original review, I gave this 2008 Sundance hit a somewhat lukewarm appraisal. But upon a second viewing, then a third… I realized that I like this film quite a lot (happens sometimes…nobody’s perfect!).

A pair of Irish hit men (Brendan Gleeson and Colin Farrell) botch a job in London and are exiled to the Belgian city of Bruges, where they are ordered to lay low until their piqued Cockney employer (an over the top Ray Fiennes) dictates their next move. What ensues can be best described as a tragicomic Boschian nightmare (which will make more sense once you’ve seen it).

Writer-director Martin McDonagh (who deftly juggles “fook” as a noun, adverb, super adverb and adjective) re-enlisted In Bruges stars Gleeson and Farrell as the leads for his Oscar-nominated 2022 dramedy The Banshees of Inisherin (also recommended!).

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Into the West – A gem from one of the more underappreciated “all-purpose” directors, Mike Newell (Dance With a Stranger, Enchanted April, Four Weddings and a Funeral, Donnie Brasco, Pushing Tin). At first glance, it falls into the “magical family film” category, but it carries a subtly dark undercurrent with it throughout, which keeps it interesting for the adults in the room. Lovely performances, a magic horse, and one pretty pair o’ humans (Ellen Barkin and Gabriel Byrne, real-life spouses at the time).

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Miller’s Crossing– This 1990 gangster flick could only come from the unique mind-meld of Joel and Ethan Coen (with shades of Dasheill Hammet). The late Albert Finney is excellent as an Irish mob boss engaging in a power struggle with the local Italian mob during the Prohibition era. Gabriel Byrne (the central character of the film) portrays his advisor, who attempts to broker peace.

You do have to pay attention in order to keep up with the constantly shifting alliances and betrayals and such; but as with most Coen Brothers movies, if you lose track of the narrative you always have plenty of great supporting performances (particularly from Marcia Gay Harden and John Torturro), stylish flourishes, and mordant humor to chew on until you catch up again.

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My Left Foot – The first (and best) of three collaborations between writer-director Jim Sheridan and actor Daniel Day-Lewis (1993’s In the Name of the Father and 1997’s The Boxer were to follow). This moving 1989 biopic concerns Christy Brown, a severely palsied man who became a renowned author, poet and painter despite daunting physical challenges.

Thankfully, the film makers avoid the audience-pandering shtick of turning its protagonist into the cinematic equivalent of a lovable puppy (see Rainman, I Am Sam); Brown is fearlessly portrayed by Day-Lewis “warts and all” with peccadilloes laid bare. As a result, you acclimate to Day-Lewis’ physical tics, allowing Brown to emerge as a complex human being, not merely an object of pity.

Day-Lewis deservedly picked up an Oscar, as did Brenda Fricker, who snagged Best Supporting Actress as Brown’s mother. Don’t let Day-Lewis’ presence overshadow 13-year old Hugh O’Conor’s work as young Christy; he gives an equally impressive performance.

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Odd Man Out – An absorbing film noir from the great director Carol Reed (The Third Man, The Fallen Idol). James Mason is excellent as a gravely wounded Irish rebel who is on the run from the authorities through the shadowy backstreets of Belfast. Interestingly, the I.R.A. is never referred to directly, but the turmoil borne of Northern Ireland’s “troubles” is definitely implied by word and action throughout F.L. Green and R.C. Sherriff’s intelligent screenplay (adapted from Green’s original novel). Unique for its time, it still holds up well as a “heist gone wrong”/chase thriller with political undercurrents. The top-notch cast includes Robert Newton and Cyril Cusack.

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Older Than Ireland With age, comes wisdom. Just don’t ask a centenarian to impart any, because they might smack you. Not that there is violence in Alex Fegan and Garry Walsh’s doc, but there is consensus among interviewees (aged 100-113) that the question they find most irksome is: “What’s your secret to living so long?” Once that hurdle is cleared, Fegan and Walsh’s subjects have much to impart in this moving and entertaining pastiche of the human experience. Do yourself a favor: turn off your personal devices, watch this wondrous film and plug yourself into humankind’s forgotten backup system: the Oral Tradition.  (Full review)

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The Quiet Man – I’ll admit to never having been a huge John Wayne fan, but he’s perfect in this John Ford classic as a down-on-his-luck boxer who leaves America to get in touch with his roots in his native Ireland. The most entertaining (and purloined) donnybrook of all time, plus a fiery performance from gorgeous Maureen O’Hara round things off nicely. Although tame by modern standards, romantic scenes between Wayne and O’Hara are quite fervid for the era. The pastoral valleys and rolling hills of the Irish countryside have never looked lovelier, thanks to Winton C. Hoch and Archie Stout’s Oscar-winning cinematography.

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The Secret of Roan Inish – John Sayles delivers an engaging fairy tale, devoid of the usual genre clichés. Wistful, haunting and beautifully shot by the great cinematographer Haskell Wexler, who captures the misty desolation of County Donegal’s rugged coastline in a way that frequently recalls Michael Powell’s similarly effective utilization of Scotland’s Shetland Islands for his 1937 classic, The Edge of the World. The seals should have received a special Oscar for Best Performance by a Sea Mammal. Ork, ork!

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Song of the Sea – This 2014 animated fantasy from writer-director Tomm Moore centers on a melancholic lighthouse keeper named Conor (voiced by Brendan Gleeson), who is raising his young son and daughter following the tragic loss of his wife, who died in childbirth.

After his daughter is nearly swept out to sea one night, Conor decides the children would be better off staying with their grandmother in the city. The kids aren’t so crazy about this plan; after a few days with grandma they make a run for it. Before they can wend their way back home, they are waylaid by a succession of characters that seem to have popped out of one of the traditional Irish fairy tales that Conor’s mother used to tell him as a child.

Moore’s film has a timeless quality and a visual aesthetic on par with the best of Studio Ghibli. There is something in Moore’s hand-drawn animation that I find sorely lacking in the computer-generated “product” glutting multiplexes these days: genuine heart.

Previous posts with related themes:

Rave on, rave on..St. Patrick’s Awesome Mixtape

The Irishman

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Dennis Hartley