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The Sorest Loser And Most Ungracious Winner Prize Goes To

That’s quite an invitation, no?

By contrast, here’s Biden:

You tell me which one is fit to be president.

By the way, this from Dave Weigel is interesting:

A super PAC that urged non-Republicans to cast primary votes for Nikki Haley is pivoting to November, urging Haley’s voters to support President Joe Biden. Starting today, Primary Pivot will become Haley Voters for Biden, and urge anyone who supported Haley in a swing state to stick with the president in November.

“This is an effort from people who have actually supported Nikki Haley to try to guide as many of them as possible toward the candidate that respects democracy, even if they may disagree with him politically,” said Primary Pivot co-founder Robert Schwartz.

In a statement, Primary Pivot said it would focus on Haley voters in states where they could be counted — nearly 300,000 in Michigan, and nearly 250,000 in North Carolina. The super PAC, which started by urging New Hampshire Democrats to temporarily switch their registrations, spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to activate potential Haley voters in South Carolina and Super Tuesday states.

It wasn’t enough to deliver a win, outside of Vermont, where Haley picked up votes from non-Republicans in the state’s open primary. Schwartz hoped that Trump’s reaction to that — a Truth Social post denouncing “the fact that Democrats, for reasons unknown, are allowed to vote in Vermont” — would fuel the new campaign.

“We wanted to start this effort as soon as possible to lock in that kind of resentment toward the way Trump and MAGA have treated Haley voters,” he said.

Haley’s decision to quit the race, but not endorse Trump, was encouraging for the Biden campaign, especially as Trump continues to denigrate her. “There is a place for them in my campaign,” the president said in a statement on Wednesday, suggesting common ground on protecting democracy, encouraging civility, and maintaining America’s NATO commitments.

Plenty of her voters went to the polls to protest Trump, unhappily confident that the former president was going to beat Haley anyway. But Schwartz really wanted Haley to win, seeing Trump as a unique threat and Haley as a rallying point for a united front to stop him.

That was Plan A, and it didn’t work. Plan B starts with the Haley voters who told exit pollsters that they did not want to support the GOP nominee if their candidate lost. On Tuesday, that was 48% of Haley’s supporters in California, 62% in North Carolina, and 76% in Virginia.

“Voting for Haley today meant I can vote twice in 2024 against Trump,” Bill Kristol posted on X, describing the vote as a “temporary re-embrace of my ex-party.”

Covering Haley last month, I met a decent number of voters who took Primary Pivot’s advice — or agreed with it but weren’t actually contacted by the PAC. Some Haley voters, said Schwartz, were Democrats who didn’t really need a new push from them. But some were Republicans who needed to be convinced to switch sides this year, which was Schwartz’s new mission.

“We’ll be able to get their voter files, their location in these states, their education level, their income level — whether they live in the suburbs, their voting history, all of that,” he said. “We’re going to micro-target these people as much as possible.”

Some of Haley’s voters were Democrats, for sure. But some were not. We’ll have to see if any of them can be persuaded. But I have to think that at least few don’t find Trump calling Haley “Birdbrain” and saying he doesn’t need their votes is going to go over very well.


The Democrats Have Money And They Plan To Spend It

I don’t think TV ads work the way they used to but it can’t hurt to try a simple message and repeat it over and over again. Repetition is key:

An estimated $2.7 billion is expected to be spent just on presidential campaign advertising this cycle. Pro-Biden super PACs Future Forward and American Bridge already have committed to a blizzard of ads, with $250 million and $200 million in spending respectively, as Democrats prepare an onslaught of ads to turn voters’ attention away from Biden’s age and remind them of Trump’s chaotic first term. In a memo released Wednesday morning, the Biden campaign said that groups allied with it had committed to spending more than $700 million to help defeat Trump.

And with the president’s team eager to turn 2024 into a choice election for voters, plans are in place for the campaign itself to ramp up contrast ad-spending this spring. A person familiar with Biden’s campaign strategy but not authorized to speak about it publicly said it will come earlier than when then-President Barack Obama’s allies began turning up the heat on Republican rival Mitt Romney in 2012.

“Super Tuesday was always circled on our calendars because there’s a segment of persuadable voters who don’t believe that this was going to be a rematch,” said Bradley Beychok, co-founder of American Bridge, one of the pro-Biden super PACs. “This is going to be a ‘what’s behind door number two?’ election and door number two is a second Trump term, and that’s terrifying. Voters need to remember how chaotic the first Trump presidency was.”

“This,” he added, “is going to be a war until November.”

Money isn’t everything but it isn’t nothing either. The Democrats have more than the Republicans so far and even if Trump catches up, there will be more than enough. They need to spend it wisely. I hope they can get their message together and get everyone on the same page to pound it home.

Mitch McConnell Endorses Trump

Is anyone surprised?

I don’t think anything could be more predictable, not even the sun coming up tomorrow.

“It is abundantly clear that former President Trump has earned the requisite support of Republican voters to be our nominee for President of the United States,” McConnell said in a statement to The Washington Post. “It should come as no surprise that as nominee, he will have my support. During his presidency, we worked together to accomplish great things for the American people including tax reform that supercharged our economy and a generational change of our federal judiciary — most importantly, the Supreme Court. I look forward to the opportunity of switching from playing defense against the terrible policies the Biden administration has pursued to a sustained offense geared towards making a real difference in improving the lives of the American people.”

McConnell — who has announced he will step down from his leadership role in November — is one of the most influential Washington Republicans to back Trump, and the endorsement was a remarkable, if expected, move from the Kentucky Republican. He has held out in recent weeks as other Republicans have lined up to back Trump, including many who wanted a different nominee, and his endorsement means that almost every powerful cog in the Republican apparatus is directly behind the former president.

McConnell has privately derided Trump, publicly attacked him for his role in fomenting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol and has not spoken with Trump for several years. People close to McConnell privately said after Trump’s presidency that the powerful Kentucky Republican did not plan to speak Trump’s name again.

“There is no question, none, that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the event of that day,” he said after Jan. 6. He added that Trump “didn’t get away with anything yet” in a speech on the floor of the Senate that explained his decision not to convict Trump on impeachment charges.

Trump has mocked McConnell’s wife as “Coco Chao” because of her Asian American heritage and frequently derided McConnell as the “Broken Down Crow,” or in more pejorative terms. He has told advisers that he wanted to replace McConnell as the leader of Republicans in the Senate if he were elected, but McConnell has already said he will step down. During remarks to donors at his Mar-a-Lago Club in 2021, he infamously called McConnell a “dumb son of a b—-.”

No biggie. It’s all just good natured joshing between friends.

McConnell knows that Trump tried to overthrow the election in 2020 and he thinks he should be president again. Nothing more needs to be said.

Gopers Defund Police

Sometimes I feel as if they’re just trying to make me think I’m crazy. I never in a million years would have thought that Republicans would cut the funding for the FBI but here we are.

I think the most astonishing thing about this is that they’ve done it strictly for the purpose of defending that cretin Donald Trump. It’s not that they’ve truly decided that the police need to be hemmed in or that the FBI is too big and powerful. They just want to exact revenge on behalf of their Dear Leader. If he wins they’ll pack it with toadies and give them everything they ever wanted to go after their enemies.

Chart O’ The Day

This is the one we should all send to our conservative relatives who aren’t dyed in the wool cultists. (There is no hope for them.)

It’s just nuts that Biden’s getting slammed on the economy by everyone. I have friends with money who are bitching and moaning about how much their always expensive restaurant meals cost. But then they haven’t gained a lot on “wages” (don’t ask about their portfolios which have exploded) so they’re not getting enough of a taste. It’s a mantra.

I think this just shows that politics isn’t really politics. It’s entertainment for some and therapy for others. It certainly isn’t about policy. And it certainly isn’t about reality.

The Big Money Boyz And Their Tax Cuts

One of the all time great con jobs

As I watched the Super Tuesday returns last night I was struck by exit polls which showed that the economy is the most important issue to many Republican voters and they believe Donald Trump will be better for them financially than President Biden. Considering how successfully Biden has managed a swift recovery from the economic catastrophe he inherited, I find that disturbing but according to the NY Times, a majority of the electorate is suffering from “collective amnesia” and doesn’t remember why they ousted Trump back in 2020. Apparently, they are nostalgic for the golden days of a Trump administration that never existed.

I don’t know if that amnesia will be cured by facts and statistics, but even Fox News has to admit that the Biden economy is doing very well.

Nonetheless, Trump and all of his various henchmen spend their days insisting that the economy is on the verge of collapse. Last night during his low-energy victory speech he said it once again and as he told Lou Dobbs in an interview in January, he hopes it will crash within the next 12 months so that he won’t be like Herbert Hoover. (Joe Biden correctly pointed out to Evan Osnos in the New Yorker, “He’s already Herbert Hoover. He’s the only President that ever lost jobs in a four-year period—other than Hoover.”)

Despite the fact that inflation has stopped rising at the same pace as a couple of years ago, people yearn for prices to go back down to where they were before the pandemic. And just as he promised back in 2016, he says that only he can fix it. But he’s short on details about how he’s going to do that except for some vague promises to dramatically raise tariffs and deport millions of undocumented workers which will actually ignite inflation. And he has said that he will fully fund Social Security and Medicare through “growth” and selling oil leases in Alaska which might as well be a promise to pay for it with diamond mines on Mars.

He does have one other plan that he doesn’t talk about quite as much, however. Here he is sharing it with a group of wealthy donors at Mar-a-Lago back in December where he told them “you’re all people that have a lot of money. You’re rich as hell. We’re gonna give you tax cuts”

Of course he is. And he’s planning to cut corporate taxes too. He’s a Republican and that’s what they do. In fact, his only legislative accomplishment in his first term was a massive tax cut bill for the rich. But that wasn’t really his accomplishment, was it? That was the evergreen policy goal of the Republican Party, especially the blue-eyed dream boat Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, the Ayn Rand devote who believed that rich men were heroes who needed to be allowed to run free unencumbered by civic responsibility so that capitalism might save humanity. That it personally benefited the new, wealthy president made it all the sweeter.

Trump’s determination to lower taxes for the rich is a given. Everything he does is first and foremost for himself and he won’t even try to rationalize it. It’s unlikely that the rest of the party can get away with that, so they’ll no doubt return to their perennial excuse — the federal budget deficit as a reason to lower taxes, even though that makes no sense.

That tired old saw goes back to the Reagan administration which popularized a quack theory called “supply side economics” championed by economist Arthur Laffer which claimed that the more you cut taxes the greater the revenue to the government. Even then everyone knew it was ridiculous. Reagan’s budget director, David Stockman, actually spilled the beans to journalist William Greider, telling him that “It’s kind of hard to sell ‘trickle down, so the supply-side formula was the only way to get a tax policy that was really ‘trickle down.’ Supply-side is ‘trickle-down’ theory.” Trump gave Arthur Laffer the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2019.

Today another supply side guru, Stephen Moore, formerly of the Club for Growth, has-co-authored the Project 2025 economic plan to completely “reform” the US Treasury. He’s pushing to privatize Social Security which Trump has never explicitly ruled out and told The Guardian, “Yes, I am strongly in favor of cutting tax rates to make [the] American economy No 1.” And this would presumably be in addition to extending the Trump tax cuts from 2017 which are up for renewal next year.

Just this week, we’ve received some important data on the effect of those tax cuts and I’m sure you won’t be surprised to learn that they did not pay for themselves or deliver the thousands of dollars in increased wages to workers as promised. The NY Times reports:

Instead, they are adding more than $100 billion a year to America’s $34 trillion-and-growing national debt, according to the quartet of researchers from Princeton University, the University of Chicago, Harvard University and the Treasury Department.

The researchers found the cuts delivered wage gains that were “an order of magnitude below” what Trump officials predicted: about $750 per worker per year on average over the long run, compared to promises of $4,000 to $9,000 per worker.

That trickle never seems to make it down from the wealthy’s palatial palaces. Here’s even more data:

The new paper, by David Hope of the London School of Economics and Julian Limberg of King’s College London, examines 18 developed countries — from Australia to the United States — over a 50-year period from 1965 to 2015. The study compared countries that passed tax cuts in a specific year, such as the U.S. in 1982 when President Ronald Reagan slashed taxes on the wealthy, with those that didn’t, and then examined their economic outcomes. 

Per capita gross domestic product and unemployment rates were nearly identical after five years in countries that slashed taxes on the rich and in those that didn’t, the study found. 

But the analysis discovered one major change: The incomes of the rich grew much faster in countries where tax rates were lowered. Instead of trickling down to the middle class, tax cuts for the rich may not accomplish much more than help the rich keep more of their riches and exacerbate income inequality, the research indicates.

This is nothing but a giveaway to their rich benefactors. It’s a con that’s been working beautifully for 50 years.

Apparently, Trump just welcomed one of the two richest men in the world, Elon Musk, a major government contractor and social media influencer, to Mar-a-Lago to beg for money. Considering the batshit lunacy that Musk is posting to his X account these days, Trump can probably count on him for a billion or so. Both of these men are shallow thinkers who have adopted the personas of populist demagogue speaking for the working man against the elites but in the end they’re just a couple of rich guys looking out for number one. Underneath all the MAGA bluster and BS, it’s still the Republican Party and the pols will always cater to them that brung ’em.

Salon

Trump Foreign Policy In A Nutshell

He is also against anything the Democrats are for.

That’s it. There’s nothing ideological about it.

Issues That Matter

“Reproductive rights, gun control and the environment.”

The greatest untapped source of votes for Democrats is younger voters. (No, I won’t reproduce the chart again.) They are registered heavily independent (or unaffiliated) and those tend to fall off Democrats’ targeting computers. What do they care about? What might get them to turn out in the fall? Here you go.

 

 
Post by @juliefornc
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Post by @housejuddems
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Reproductive rights are under assault. MAGA Republicans mean to get Stasi about it.

 
Post by @maddowshow
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No, I haven’t forgotten gun control.

Post by @prof.donx
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Democrats want to do something for you. Republicans want to do something to you.

Governor Hobbs Launches Affordable Arizona: Tackling Medical Debt for Working Families

My friend Kim Yaman reminds North Carolinians, “If you think NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson would do something like this to protect North Carolinians from crushing medical debt if he’s elected governor this year, I got a seaside house in Rodanthe to sell you.” (Speaking of the environment.)

Post by @profgalloway
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Yes, oldsters, the GOP is coming for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

Post by @bidenharrishq
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Get busy.

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Okay, Now What?

Super Tuesday is over

“Presidential primary season is effectively over,” writes Jim Newell at Slate, rather anticlimactically. California’s Rep. Adam Schiff is on his way to being Senator Schiff. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced she would not seek reelection in Arizona, clearing the way for Rep. Ruben Gallego to become Senator Gallego. And Joe Biden and Donald “91 Counts” Trump will battle again for the presidency. Didn’t see that coming, didja?

Here in North Carolina, Attorney General Josh Stein will battle Lt. Gov. Mark “Choking on my own blood” Robinson for governor. Guess which is the Republican?

The problem going forward to November, as Digby observed of Josh Marshall’s take on the polling, is that “half the country doesn’t have a clue what actually going on, in some cases because they’ve been brainwashed and in others they’ve stopped paying attention order to preserve their mental health.” Ours here remains tenuous.

Greg Sargent on Tuesday:

Large swaths of voters appear to have little awareness of some of Trump’s clearest statements of hostility to democracy and intent to impose authoritarian rule in a second term, from his vow to be “dictator for one day” to his vague threat to enact “termination” of provisions in the Constitution.

That’s maddening for obvious reasons. But it also presents the Biden campaign with an opportunity. If voters are unaware of all these statements, there’s plenty of time to make voters aware of them—and the polling also finds that these statements, when aired to respondents, shift them against Trump.

Carpet-bomb the MFer.

It’s the same with Robinson in North Carolina, I suspect. Just as you, Dear Reader, know how crazy Trump is and that his mind is going because you come here each day and consume mass quantities of cable news, Joe and Jane Average do not. They are not as much siloed as busy with jobs and kids and their soccer practices, etc. They are likely unaware of just how crazy men like Trump and Robinson are. Or they’ve stuffed their ears and la-la-la to block it out. It’s the campaigns’ job to make sure voters know.

Carpet-bomb the lunatic GOPers until people get it.

Sargent comments on a poll that sheds light on the problem and the solution:

The survey—which was conducted by veteran Democratic pollster Geoff Garin for the group Save My Country and shared with The New Republic—did something novel. It polled 400 voters in each of three swing states—Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—and weighted them in proportion with each state’s Electoral College votes. It omitted respondents who voted for Trump in 2020 and also said Biden didn’t legitimately win.

In short, the poll was designed to survey voters who are genuinely gettable for Biden. The poll asked them about 10 of Trump’s most authoritarian statements, including: the two mentioned above, Trump’s claim that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country,” his vow to pardon rioters who attacked the Capitol, his promise to prosecute the Biden family without cause, his threat to inflict mass persecution on the “vermin” opposition, and a few more.

Result? “Only 31 percent of respondents said they previously had heard a lot about these statements by Trump,” the memo accompanying the poll concluded.

The good news for Biden is that when respondents were presented with these quotes, it prompted a rise in Trump’s negatives. For instance, after hearing them, the percentage who see him as “out for revenge” jumped by five points, the percentage who see him as “dangerous” rose by nine points, and the percentage who see him as a “dictator” climbed by seven points.

Joe Biden owns the bully pulpit. His job now and (hopefully) during his State of the Union Address on Thursday is to unleash Dark Brandon, to give Trump a taste of being bullied until he’s so apoplectic he won’t be able to pronounce it. (That shouldn’t be hard.) Then run the clip endlessly. There are already a wealth of Trump gag reels of him slurring his speech, spouting gibberish and clumsily trying to cover it up.

I’m hoping that Josh Stein will unleash similar hell on Robinson here in North Carolina. Like Gov. Roy Cooper (D) before him, the mild-mannered Stein does not exactly light up a room. But that worked for Cooper when pitted against Gov. Pat “Bathroom Bil” McCrory in 2016 and Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forest in 2020. Low-key did not work for Cheri Beasley either in 2020 or in 2022. Few have heard Robinson’s pledge to “own this nation and rule this nation” for “Christian patriots” to the exclusion of anyone and everyone else. Stein needs to make sure voters hear it.

Americans want to pull for a fighter, for someone they feel will have their backs. That requires actually throwing punches.

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About The Polls

As I write this we’re awaiting the results of the Super Tuesday primary elections and obviously, we’ll be talking about that tomorrow. For now, I thought you might be interested in smart discussion of the presidential polls from Josh Marshall.

First of all, he says that the good pollsters have a pretty good way of modeling the electorate and we shouldn’t dismiss the polls just because people don’t answer the phone. Ok. I’m a little bit skeptical that anyone can correctly divine who’s going to turn out in election in these weird times but I’ll take his word for it.

Anyway, here are a couple more good insights worth thinking about:

You need to believe these polls. But we need to break down what we’re talking about. People often say polling right now isn’t the same as this fall. But it’s not just that the election’s eight months from now and things can change over eight months. Public opinion just functions differently in the weeks before a national election than it does eight months before it. It becomes clearer who is and who isn’t going to vote. People answer polls differently when they’re about to have to make a choice than they do months in advance.

Because of that I always find it a little difficult to answer questions about whether you should “believe” the polls. People say, well, this is just a snapshot. So it’s accurate for right now. But maybe not later. But now there’s not a general election. So in a real way, “now” isn’t even a thing.

With that said, I would absolutely much prefer Biden to be ahead by a couple of points than behind by a couple of points. That is 100% true. The best way to look at the current situation is that right now Biden’s the President and Trump is just some guy. Currently the election is a referendum and Biden is losing. The question is whether the Biden campaign and the dynamics of the election itself are going to change the election into a choice. Which of these two guys do you prefer? I think Biden will likely win a choice election. So whether this election is a referendum on Biden, or becomes a choice election between Biden and Trump, is the big question.

There’s another issue here on believing the polls.

From 2016 until 2022, in most elections you’d have the polls and then Trump or his candidates would outperform the polls. Not by a lot. But by a non-trivial amount. Often this difference was within the margin of error. So a pollster could say, we didn’t miss anything. That’s within the margin of error. It’s right there on the product label, as it were. But when it’s always or usually in one direction, that’s not the margin of error. There’s something wrong. And when you’re aggregating together large numbers of polls, the margin of error works differently. Then in 2022, pretty much after the Dobbs decision, that seemed to flip. Democrats started doing a nudge better than the polls.

We saw that in 2022. We’ve seen it in various special elections. We saw it in 2023. We haven’t yet seen whether that applies in a general election. That’s a big caveat. General elections are different. But if you’re looking for a reason that polls might be off by a bit and in Democrats’ direction, that’s it. Personally, I do think this is the case. And it’s the prism through which I look at a lot of this. I am not relying on this. But it is part of the picture when I look at these numbers.

Third: Okay, great. But isn’t the media awfulizing a lot about Biden? Obsessing about Biden’s age?

This one is complicated and the issue of media bias is one mostly best left for a different post. But there is some truth in this. It’s very paradoxical. I’ve written many times that D.C. remains wired for the GOP for all the reasons I’ve described. But it’s also true that there’s this kind of obsessing and negativity because most reporters are demographically and often politically closer to Democrats. For many of them it is kind of a given that Trump is a nut. And thus they are prone to focus on and amplify Democrats’ agita and anxieties.

Right now, Biden’s behind. Not by a lot. But he’s behind. That’s bad. That sucks. But even within that there’s a filtering of news in place that focuses on bad news for the Democrats. Let me give you just one example from today. Just after that batch of bad polls (NYT/Siena: Trump +4; Fox: Trump +2; CBS: Trump +4; WSJ: Trump +2) there was another batch of three. Those polls were TIPP Insights: Biden +1; Morning Consult: Biden +1.

On balance, the bad-for-Biden set includes pollsters I rate a bit better than the new, better-for-Biden set. But these are all quality polls. I don’t think I would have heard a peep about these other polls if I didn’t follow every poll that comes out. It’s also true that if you averaged all seven of those polls Biden would still be behind. But it is still unquestionably true that the bad polls are getting way, way more attention than the better polls for Biden.

We also see this a lot when reporters pick out a subsample in a poll as an example of Democratic oblivion. Trump is tied with African-American voters. Fifty percent of voters totally hate Biden. It’s almost never a good idea to base reporting on these internals of a poll. I actually recently saw a headline of a Quinnipiac poll which said that 70% of voters said Biden was too old. But he was actually up in that poll by 4 points.

There are more anecdotal examples. Over the weekend I was checking in on the number crunchers I follow on Twitter and Dave Wasserman, a great elections numbers guy, noted that Trump came within 40,000 votes of winning in 2020 and now, with Biden less popular than he was, Dems were “on the brink of disaster.” After posting that he caught some grief, I think, for speaking in such hyperbolic terms, and he followed up to say, “yes, losing to a candidate whom 53% of voters believe committed serious federal crimes would qualify as a disaster for any political party.”

Many would agree that Biden losing by even a single vote will qualify as a disaster. But Wasserman is a numbers analyst, not a partisan. He wasn’t talking about the substantive impact of a Trump presidency. He was talking about one party potentially losing. I note these comments because there’s a clear and consistent tendency to talk in really, really hyperbolic terms about Biden being slightly behind eight months before the election. This is real and it affects the overall tone of election coverage a great deal.

It’s worth remembering that Trump ran behind basically for the entire 2020 election and no one ever talked like this about his campaign. It’s just built in. It’s worth being aware of.

There’s a lot that’s baked in to this race and a lot that isn’t. Like Marshall I wish Biden was running ahead, (and speaking for myself I can’t believe he isn’t ahead by 30 points, to tell you the truth!) But I accept that half the country doesn’t have a clue what actually going on, in some cases because they’ve been brainwashed and in others they’ve stopped paying attention order to preserve their mental health. That’s not going to last.