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Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

War, But Not Health Care

This will only hurt a little

It’s a universal truth they don’t teach in seminary or in epistemology: There’s never money enough for helping people, but always enough for killing them. War is like Jell-O that way.

Just ask any Republican (Axios):

Republicans are considering reductions in federal health spending to help pay for a budget bill containing as much as $200 billion to fund the Iran war and immigration enforcement.

Why it matters: New efforts to rein in health programs are sure to be controversial and open the GOP up to election-year attacks that they’re cutting health care to pay for an unpopular war.

Driving the news: Top House Republicans are looking at health care offsets addressing fraud in federal programs, as they did during last year’s debate over the budget law that made deep cuts to federal Medicaid spending and imposed first-time work requirements.

Also, wind and solar are unreliable sources of energy. Solar, when it’s dark. Wind, when it doesn’t blow. Just ask any Republican (who’s never heard of battereies).

But if you want an inexhaustible source of on-demand federal funding for a war that’s not a war (it’s an “excursion”), your Republican go-to is waste, fraud and abuse.

Just ask House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.): “There’s other items we’re looking at right now, especially in the areas of fraud and waste and abuse that we’re working through with our members.”

Donald Trump blew off concerns that fallout (not the real thing) from his war against Iran might cause some short-term pain for Americans at the gas pump. Trump allies in Congress who lack the fortitude to demand that Trump seek congressional approval for his not-a-war are ready to jump through hoops to find him money for it. They’re not shy about asking 300,000 Americans to share gas-users’ pain.

House Budget Committee chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) is reviving an idea that was considered last year to fund Affordable Care Act payments known as cost-sharing reductions.

  • The Congressional Budget Office previously found the move would lower overall benchmark ACA premiums by 11% but result in 300,000 more uninsured people.
  • It would cut the subsidy amount that some enrollees receive, thereby increasing out-of-pocket premium costs, while saving the government over $30 billion.

Arrington said in the House, “there is a boatload of waste and fraud.” Enough to power a war, apparently. But unless you’re MAGA, don’t be sucker enough to believe waste, fraud, and abuse can power your home. Unless Dear Leader tells you it can.

Waaaah!

Oh no. The legacy!

A federal judge has blocked Donald Trump from building a new grand ballroom on the former site of the White House’s East Wing, which the president had torn down last year.

Judge Richard Leon, an appointee of Ronald Reagan, ruled that construction “has to stop!” until Congress “blesses this project through statutory authorization.”

 “The President may at any time go to Congress to obtain express authority to construct a ballroom and to do so with private funds,” Leon wrote. “Indeed, Congress may even choose to appropriate funds for the ballroom, or at least decide that some other funding scheme is acceptable.” He emphasized that Congress “will thereby retain its authority over the nation’s property and its oversight of government spending.”

He might as well have kicked Trump right in the … ballroom. NOTHING is more important to him.

Trump even brought out poster boards with depictions of the ballroom on Air Force One while speaking with reporters on Sunday. “They’ll be Corinthian, which is considered the best, the most beautiful by far,” he said of the ballroom’s columns, while holding up a visual aid.

The president also claimed on Sunday that the military is constructing a “massive complex” under the ballroom. “I’m so busy that I don’t have time to do this,” he said. “I’m fighting wars and other things,” Trump told reporters. “But this is very important, because this is going to be with us for a long time, and it’s going to be, I think it will be the greatest ballroom anywhere in the world.”

That’s not all:

Trump has been occupied with several different of construction-related projects since retaking office — from the ballroom, to renovations of the Kennedy Center, to building a grand arch in Washington, D.C., to reimagining the city’s various monuments. Shortly before Judge Leon handed down his ruling on Tuesday, Trump posted to Truth Social that he and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum “are working on fixing the absolutely filthy Reflecting Pool between the Lincoln Memorial and the Washington Monument.” Trump blamed the state of the iconic pool on “Sleepy Joe” Biden. Most have been undertaken without the standard architectural reviews and congressional oversight typical of major renovations of public buildings.

Here comes the tantrum:

Give him a bottle and put him to bed. He’s tired and cranky.

The GOP Normie Minority

Those of you who’ve been around a while will remember Stuart Rothenberg, the election analyst who, along with Charlie Cook, were the original stat guys who predicted outcomes. I always thought he was a Republican even though he was known as a non-partisan. It turns out I was right about that. In this feature on his open contempt for Donald Trump he admits that he always strove for objectivity but did vote Republican all those years. When Trump came along he could not stay quiet about what he was seeing. Lauren Egan at the Bulwark writes:

One explanation for the shift could be that Rothenberg is still matter-of-fact about the way politics works—that he didn’t change but politics did, in the Trump-dominated landscape—and so his more blunt language is just what candor requires nowadays. But that’s not how Rothenberg explains it. Instead, he says he has become more outspoken and less “neutral” because he believes that the times demand he take a stand.

“There was always a sense when people were listening to me or reading what I wrote, that I was an honest broker. My job was not to impose ideology on my readers, and that worked fine,” Rothenberg told me in a recent interview. “But then Trump entered the scene.”

“I just decided it was more important to try to save the country or deal with Trump as an adversary rather than as a neutral person,” he added. “How can you be neutral about Donald Trump?” […]

“He’s a giant asshole, arrogant, just the kind of person I hated growing up. And he was a bully. So for me, I just wanted to go out and speak the truth,” Rothenberg, who grew up in New York City, told me. “I was still trying to be analytical rather than ideological because, as I say, I’m not trying to tell anybody who to vote for. But Trump is such an extreme case.”

Thank you! To me, that perfectly expresses what I thought most Republicans would have done when that weirdo entered the race — what any sane person would do. That so many of them signed on to him is one of the most illuminating aspects of this whole political drama. I knew the right was full of shit before but I did think that at least a majority of Republicans were rooted in reality. It turns out that was wrong.

Maybe it’s true of Democrats as well but we haven’t seen that tested. None of the Dem presidents have been certifiable crazy men like Trump. But we now know that a large majority of Republicans will follow any ignorant bully right over the cliff because it thrills them to own the libs and wield their hate against all the people who aren’t like them.

Rothenberg and a small cadre of other Republicans showed that they are still tethered to a shared reality with the rest of the world. It’s good to see it. But the fact that are so few still chills me to the bone.

Fuck Trump?

Apparently, people believe that Julia Stratton’s come from behind victory for the Illinois Democratic Senate nomination was at least somewhat based on that ad. Dan Pfeiffer asks whether that’s something that should be replicated in order campaigns:

I ask the question — Is Fuck Trump a good message for Democrats?

1. Desperately Seeking Attention

Attention is the mother’s milk of politics in 2026. Every politician needs it and it’s never been harder to get. The old formula for putting your face in front of voters was two-fold. First, get the news media to cover you. This was never easy, but it was possible. You make “news” by announcing a new policy, launching a new effort, or saying something interesting in front of a TV camera. In state and local campaigns, that meant talking to the local press. Unfortunately, the local press is a shell of its former self. There are fewer outlets, and many of the ones that still exist do not have the resources to cover politics the same way.

The second way to get attention was to buy it. Campaigns would spend millions of dollars to run ads during the television programs most watched by their target viewers. While they still spend millions, those ads reach far fewer people in a world where streaming video is the norm and large platforms like Netflix don’t allow political ads.

Stratton ran this ad because she needed attention. She needed something that went viral online, generated conversation, and ensured that people knew who she was and considered voting for her.

Getting attention often means courting controversy — saying and doing edgy things that will get people talking. To get attention, you also need to be willing to piss some people off. The algorithms that distribute political news value engagement. An angry comment is worth as much as a positive one.

Running an ad with a bunch of Illinoisans saying “Fuck Trump” will get people paying attention. Many more people saw the ad on social media or through news coverage than when it ran as a commercial.

Getting attention is important. How you use that attention once you have it is even more important.

2. Why This Ad Worked for Stratton

When the ad was first posted, there was a lot of agitation among Stratton supporters and other Democrats that she had gone too far. People worried the ad seemed too desperate and would elicit backlash.

I was less worried.

“Fuck Trump” is a clever way to capture the rage that Democratic voters have — not just at Trump, but also at Democratic leadership, the media, corporations, and everyone else they believe has failed to respond to the threat he poses.

There was little worry about backlash within the Democratic electorate about being too anti-Trump, even with the profanity. Stratton was running in a Democratic primary in Illinois, a state Kamala Harris won by 11 points in 2024. There is no serious Republican running. So even if the ad was too much for some Independents and disenchanted Republicans, it wouldn’t hurt her in the general election.

The part of the ad that worked for me — and this is the lesson for other Democrats — is that once Stratton had your attention, she used it to tell the viewer about her biography, her policy stances, and that popular Democratic politicians like Governor J.B. Pritzker and Senator Tammy Duckworth were backing her candidacy.

Unlike so much of the viral slop churned out by various political actors these days, Stratton’s ad is attention-getting with a purpose.

3. What About the Profanity?

Just a few years ago, the idea of a politician running an ad with the F word in it would have seemed insane. Politicians never swore in public, and certainly not in ads and videos.

This is one of the many things that have changed since Trump came down the escalator 11 years ago. Our political culture has coarsened, and perhaps more importantly, politicians can now communicate with voters in ways other than broadcast television networks regulated by the FCC and their profanity standards.

Politicians are swearing all the time now. They call “bullshit” and add a “fucking” for emphasis to their tweets and other posts.

Look, I have no problem with profanity. If you listen to Pod Save America, you may think I have a profanity problem, because I swear more than I should (apologies to those who listen to the podcast in the car or at home with their kids around). There are limits — notably, Stratton and Pritzker don’t actually say “Fuck Trump” in the ad (although Duckworth does).

Even so, the bigger issue is that too many politicians see profanity as a proxy for authenticity. Adding the F word to your focus-grouped statement doesn’t change how voters see you. It just makes you look even more like a phony.

4. Can You Be Too Anti-Trump?

There are very few fresh ideas in political ad-making, so it’s likely that a lot of ad makers will see the success of the “Fuck Trump” ad and try to come up with their own off-brand version.

The biggest question raised is whether there is a danger in being too anti-Trump.

In the 2026 Democratic primaries and the 2028 presidential primaries, you can see Democrats being incentivized to follow the same path Stratton did — with or without a primary. Turn the contest into a question of which Democrat is the most anti-Trump. The good news for Democrats in 2026 is that there are no contested primaries in most of the critical Senate races in the red states we need to win a majority. While anti-Trump sentiment crosses party lines these days, there are limits to the efficacy of a “Fuck Trump” message when you need to persuade a significant number of Trump voters to win.

With a midterm electorate in this political environment — and Trump’s poll numbers where they are — I’m not really worried about Democrats being too anti-Trump. This will differ based on the partisanship of the district and state, but I just don’t foresee an anti-anti-Trump backlash.

In 2028, a huge number of Democrats will be competing for attention and grassroots donations. Being vehemently anti-Trump is a great way to acquire both of those precious commodities. Gavin Newsom has used this exact strategy to jump to the top of the hypothetical 2028 polls.

That may be a great way to win the primary, but it may not be the most compelling message in the general election. I don’t say this because there will be some fondness in the electorate for Trump, or nostalgia for the Trump era, as it comes to an end. It’s more that I think voters are going to be bored and tired of Trump. He will be old news. They are going to be desperate to turn the page on the Trump era and will be looking for someone who has a vision for what comes next.

In summary, Fuck Trump is a fine message. There is no need to pearl-clutch about it — but it won’t be sufficient to build the governing majority we need.

There’s no reason you can’t do both. And if one of his henchmen like Vance or Rubio gets the nomination in 28, “fuck Trump and his little dog too” will be perfectly serviceable. The rage will not have abated. But yes, by then people are going to want to hear some good news about the future. But I would caution that part of that really needs to include accountability. If we let this go again it’s inevitable that it’s going to come back in full force whenever the Republicans gain some political power again, something I think is entirely possible if the Democrats fail to deal with what’s happened.

Narcissism On Steroids

Following up on the post below:

Eric Trump:

FIRST LOOK: The Donald J. Trump Presidential Library is officially here. Over the past six months, I have poured my heart and soul into this project with my incredible team at @Trump. This landmark on the water in Miami, Florida will stand as a lasting testament to an amazing man, an amazing developer, and the greatest President our Nation has ever known.

These images have never been seen by the public — until today. Enjoy!

He’s at 33% in the latest poll.

Tantrum In A Bubble

If one didn’t know better one might assume the United States was about to declare war on its (former) allies.

Trump and his minions don’t seem too understand that we don’t live in a bubble and the global economy exists whether they like it or not. Setting aside the immorality of this juvenile commentary, it’s just so short-sighted and foolish. It’s certainly possible that if the Americans pull out the Europeans will step in and make some agreement over the Strait. I’ve read they’re already in place to do so. And if that happens Trump will strut around like he’s Richard the Lionheart saying this was the plan all along. Maybe he’ll even get away with it — the U.S. is now just a big dumb giant asshole and it doesn’t pay for anyone to rub salt in our wounds right now. But the world will know that he blew up a bunch of stuff and killed a bunch of people for absolutely no reason and they won’t forget.

This Bulwark segment with Sue Gordon, former top intelligence chief, is well worth watching if you want an intelligent analysis of what we’re dealing with. Gordon knows her shit and this take doesn’t come from a partisan perspective.

The Megalomaniac In Chief

I know you probably don’t want to hear his voice or look at this face anymore.I know I don’t. But if you can stomach it, watch this manic rant and ask yourself what you would have thought 15 years ago if someone had told you this freak would someday be president:

At least once a day I have to pinch myself to make sure this isn’t just some interminable nightmare. It still can’t really believe we would have done this to ourselves twice.

Deceive, Disrupt, Deny

It’s coming. They are broadcasting that it’s coming.

Three recent studies found that the U.S. is backsliding on its commitment to popular democracy. Ian Bassin, the co-founder and executive director of Protect Democracy, spoke with Dahlia Lithwick on Slate’s Amicus podcast about his group’s new report, Executive Override.

“So let’s understand what’s coming, and what’s already begun,” Bassin argues. “It’s essentially three things: deceive, disrupt, and deny.” Just what we saw Donald Trump do in response to his losing in 2020.

Bassin explains in detail why his “stolen election” election deception wasn’t enough in 2020 to overturn the election in his favor. Including the nation’s system for running elections distributed among over 3,000 counties and roughly 175,000 voting precincts. But Trump will make adjustments in 2026. Much of the prep work Trump did on convincing nearly a third of Americans that elections are rigged was undone when he won the 2024 election. So Trump has had to seize ballots in Georgia and in Arizona. That was just the warmup:

They’re going to get Nicolás Maduro to cop to some plea that Venezuela hacked the election. They’re going to create all these fictional conspiracy theories. They sent voting monitors from the DOJ to New Jersey and California in 2025. Harmeet Dhillon is going to come out with some report that she sees dead people. They’re going to come out with all this manufactured stuff to try to persuade people that something untoward is happening; that Iran is interfering; China’s interfering; the Cookie Monster is stealing ballots, right?

And that’s all to set up the “disrupt.” Once you can convince people that there’s something that really needs fixing here, you can get all these people you don’t necessarily directly control to try to change the rules and disrupt the system. So right now, the president is putting all this heat on the Senate to pass the SAVE Act. Which would mandate birth certificates and passports in order to register to vote, disenfranchising tens of millions of people, including, especially, married women who have changed their names and may not have gone back and gotten a new birth certificate with their new name on it. But the president hasn’t deceived enough people yet, and so the Senate is basically saying, “Yeah, nah.” So the president has to deceive more people. If he does, you’ll have more disruption. Ultimately, if the disruption doesn’t succeed, and the results are not to the president’s liking, you’ll have the “deny” phase, where they will simply try to deny the results. This is what happened in 2020.

Lithwick concludes:

We’ve seen this before. We saw it in 2020. We saw it in North Carolina in 2024. We have defeated it each time. That’s the fourth D: We’re going to defeat this. We’ve done it before. We’ll do it again.

Committing to voting will not be enough. Bassin’s group suggests a menu of actions those in different positions can take to prepare in advance.

But as we saw in 2024 in the North Carolina State Supreme Court race between Allison Riggs and Jefferson Griffin, preparing to mobilize against the post-election denial efforts will be vital. We know what’s coming. Engage now with your local election board and county Democratic Party.

Scenes From The Unmaking Of America

He’s coming for you and yours

Trump balloon shits fire onto U.S. Constitution. https://x.com/MarcoFoster_/status/2037927856773255522?s=20

The No Kings protests over the weekend were the largest yet. Over 8 million people protested. The question is will the backlash to Trump 2.0 be effective enough soon enough, assuming at all.

Without quoting Martin Niemöller yet again, here are just a few items by which Trump is coming our freedoms and demolishing the country almost as quickly as the East Wing.

Robert Kagan warns in The Atlantic that the U.S. is now a rogue superpower. Much of the world saw it not as a threat to contain, but “a partner to be enlisted.” Now it has might without right:

Nations that once bandwagoned with the United States will now remain aloof or align against it—not because they want to, but because the United States leaves them no choice, because it will neither protect them nor refrain from exploiting them. Welcome to the era of the rogue American superpower. It will be lonely and dangerous.

About Trump-Miller’s effort to end birthright citizenship, the Washington Post considers the potential casualties, including a 5-month-old born here to non-citizens. While the rest of us worry about voter disenfranchisement, her parents worry about being deported and their American-born child becoming stateless:

Supporters of birthright citizenship say its demise would tear at the economic and social fabric of the country and undermine an ideal that has made the United States a beacon for persecuted and impoverished migrants for generations.

Roughly 250,000 children would be born without citizenship in the United States each year if Trump’s order is upheld, or about 5 million by 2045, according to a friend of the court brief in the case filed by a group of 141 professors.

They argue that ending birthright citizenship would create a swath of society with limited access to education, health care and social safety net programs and would damage the American economy.

Politico considers the plight of Francesca Albanese, targeted with sanctions by the Trump administration for speaking out against U.S. policy on Gaza and against tech giants profiting from “the starvation and killing of the Palestinians of Gaza.”

The Atlantic examines the legal jeopardy of Rep. LaMonica McIver of New Jersey, charged with “assaulting, resisting, or impeding” federal officials last May. She’s asked a judge to dismiss the charges citing the Constitution’s speech-or-debate clause as her shield.

But this administration respects no constitutional rights that get in its way. Cross them, or bear the wrong genes, and you are a target. If not now, eventually, as Niemöller warned.

Digby cited Yonatan Touval’s column on how Trump misjudged the Iranian response to his war. Not comprehending other people, and lacking any historical understanding, Trump fantasized that military power was enough to make Iran buckle. Touval writes:

Tolstoy traced the same pattern from the other side. In “War and Peace,” he depicted Napoleon — nourished on Plutarch’s “Lives” and its portraits of greatness — who marched through Borodino to Moscow and still could not fathom a people who would let their city burn rather than submit. His error was not tactical. It was imaginative: He could not credit the Russians with a logic that was not his own. That is the mistake the architects of this campaign are repeating. A leadership that has spent decades framing resistance to American and Israeli power as a religious obligation will experience military pressure not as a reason to capitulate but more probably as a reason to endure.

But by that same token, many of us, failed to comprehend the mind of men like Trump and MAGAs who swear allegiance to him with a religious fervor. They too are willing to let their country burn rather than share power with people they consider inferiors, as disloyal to Dear Leader, and as usurpers of white dominance which they’ve considered for centuries their birthright.

For now, the fire is metaphorical. The danger is real.

More On Trump’s Birth-fit

See what I did there?

SprAyTAN was ranting ignorantly at the Supreme Court over birthright citizenship while I was pulling together my second post earlier. When Donald Trump signed his executive order last year puporting to rewrite the 14th Amendment’s birthright citizenship clause, he condemned courts’ traditional interpretation, saying, “We are the only country in the world that does this with the birthright, as you know, and it’s just absolutely ridiculous.”

That “as you know” is one of Trump’s flourishes used to reinforce lies he tells. It’s another version of “a lot of people are saying.”

Um, no. In fact, most Western Hemisphere countries have birthright citizenship. Including Canada, and then some.

In fact, on December 15 the Canadian government by law extended citizenship by inheritance to anyone who can document being a direct descendent of a Canadian citizen:

Amid rising tensions in the United States, many Americans are looking to Canada — and their roots — for a possible way out.

Lynn Rutman, a Cape Cod, Mass., resident with family ties to Quebec and Nova Scotia dating back centuries, said she’s worried about the political situation in her country, citing recent events surrounding controversial immigration enforcement policies and long-standing ideological divides.

“It’s not just me, many of us are concerned,” she said.

She’s now one of thousands who have begun the process of applying for proof of Canadian citizenship following recent changes to Canada’s citizenship rules.

Prior to Bill C-3, An Act to Amend the Citizenship Act (2025), citizenship by descent for those born abroad was limited to the first generation.

But now, Canadian citizenship is being retroactively granted to people born before the new law came into effect on Dec. 15, 2025, who would have been citizens if not for the first-generation limit. Different criteria, however, apply to those born on or after that date.

You don’t have to apply for Canadian citzenship. If you have the genealogy, Canada retroactively recognizes you as a Canadian. You’re just not functionally one until you formally document it for the government. Satisfy that and they send you a certificate of citizenship with which you can obtain a passport.

Guess what I’m doing in my spare time? No plans for going anywhere. Too much Irish on both sides. (Is this a private fight?) But if Canada’s offering me a back door….