Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

They counted on MAGA to be stupid. Always a smart bet.

This is an interesting tick-tock of the Border/Foreign Aid bill from the NY Times. (Gift link, here) It starts off recounting how the Republicans thought they could back the Dems into a corner by demanding a border component to Ukraine funding which they knew was vitally important to the White House. The Democrats decided that they would call their bluff and negotiate a border bill and one that would be seen as credible by serious border hawks. But they were not surprised when the Republicans balk:

The possibility that Republicans would bolt from their own deal had occurred to Mr. Schumer from the start, given his previous experience.

“We knew it way back then,” he said.

But Mr. Schumer saw a political upside should that occur: Democrats would be able to say they tried and point to the Republican opposition for failing to halt a surge of migrants illegally crossing the U.S. border with Mexico.

“It’s a win if Republicans abandon us at the last minute,” Mr. Schumer said in an interview, explaining his calculation, “because if Democrats could put together a tough, bipartisan bill on border, it would not take border away as an issue for the Republicans, but it would give us a 50-50 chance to combat it.”

I’m actually glad to hear that. I would have been very concerned if they weren’t prepared for this since the Republicans have been playing this game for quite some time. And I think that Joe Biden certainly knew it since he’s personally been involved in some of the most egregious examples of GOP bad faith saving the Democrats from a deal their voters hate.

A promising moment came when Congress returned last month, Mr. Schumer said. Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma, the Republicans’ lead negotiator in the talks, began disclosing details of the potential agreement to top colleagues, who seemed to be impressed by how far Democrats had moved on the issue. Approval seemed possible, though in the weeks that followed, Mr. Trump began savaging the emerging deal pre-emptively and urging Republicans to reject it.

The deal quickly collapsed on Feb. 4, within hours of the details being made public. Far-right conservatives in the Senate rebelled, scoffing at the notion that Democrats had made real concessions and saying that Mr. Biden would not enforce the new law regardless.

Seeing the handwriting on the wall, Senate Republicans, including Mr. McConnell, ran from the agreement. Only four Republicans ended up voting to bring it to the floor. Republicans still intend to hammer Democrats on border security issues and blame the lack of tough border policy in the Ukraine aid bill as a rationale for not taking up the legislation in the House.

“The Senate’s foreign aid bill is silent on the most pressing issue facing our country,” Speaker Mike Johnson said in attacking the legislation and suggesting it was dead in the House.

Still, members of both parties credited Mr. Schumer for deftly playing a hand that insulated Democrats from a backlash to the collapse, provided a political defense on border policy and still allowed him and a bipartisan coalition of senators to salvage the Ukraine aid.

“He saw an opening, and he seized it,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut. “His approach has kept this effort bipartisan despite the rancor and resistance.”

It also allowed Democrats to wring maximum political benefit from the immigration debate without having to follow through with any policy concessions. They were able to signal to voters that they embraced strong border provisions — and blame Republicans for killing them — without having to put the restrictions into force, which would surely have alienated their progressive base.

Tom Suozzi ran on immigration by pointing out that Trump ordered them not to take the deal and suggesting that he would have voted for it with a path to citizenship for DREAMers and others already in the country. It seems to have worked for him.

It was risky for the Dems to do this because you never know for sure that the Republicans will refuse to take yes for an answer. But at this point it’s a pretty good bet.

https://twitter.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1758133029279547696?s=20

This was ultimately what they expected to happen. They wanted the real winners of the election to riot so they could justify calling for the Insurrection Act and put the military on the streets of America. That’s what Trump meant when he said that he pre-authorized the Department of Defense to be prepared to deploy troops in DC in the days before the Insurrection.

And, in fact, that’s what Trump and Steven Miller are planning to do in the second term except this time they plan to use immigration as their excuse.

They just want to use the military against Americans one way or another. There is no doubt that he will do it this time.

Guess what? The Biden administration is meeting its commitment to under served communities

There was a bit of a brouhaha on Xitter in the last couple of days when an economic reporter for the NY Times posted that his friends in Brooklyn didn’t know about Biden’s economic successes and when confronted with the fact that the media bore some responsibility for that he fired back that he isn’t the Biden administration’s PR company. Let’s just say it wasn’t well received. Apparently, Biden hasn’t been entertaining enough for them to cover it. He needs to up his “PR” so the news media will feel it’s important to cover it.

Having said that, here’s a shout out to Axios for reporting this, which I did not know before:

There’s an unprecedented building boom underway in America. With it has come a less-noticed phenomenon: a surge of investment into communities left behind in the last economic expansion.

Why it matters: Poorer counties with lower employment rates have attracted a large share of the hundreds of billions of dollars allocated for clean energy projects, semiconductor mega-factories and more.

If sustained, the investment surge has the potential to help reshape local economies — a sharp departure from the 2010s, a period that saw more muted investment in these parts of the country.

Driving the news: These counties have received a disproportionate share of investments relative to their economic output, according to a new report from the Brookings Institute and Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The researchers look at private investment in economically distressed communities — the 1,071 counties with a median income below $75,000 and prime-age employment that significantly lags the national average.

“The previous three years of data indicate that after decades of economic divergence, strategic sector investment patterns are including more places that have historically been left out of economic growth,” the report says.

The big picture: The building boom has been spurred in part by money allocated under Biden-era legislation — the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and CHIPS and Science Act — that’s helping put a floor under the national economy and sustaining demand for workers.

Some of that legislation provides incentives for investments in low-income areas.

Since 2021, distressed communities received 16% of investments in clean energy, chips, bio-manufacturing and other industries. That’s double their share of national GDP and about 1.2 times their share of the U.S. population.

Between the lines: When compared to overall private investment, investments in these specific industries are more likely to go to distressed communities.

“Distressed communities are attracting new clean energy and semiconductor investment at roughly twice the rate of traditional private investment,” says Brian Deese, former top White House economic adviser who joined MIT last year.

“If this trend continues, it has the potential to change the economic geography of the country and create economic opportunity in parts of this country that too many people have written off in the past,” says Deese, an author of the report and a key architect of Biden’s industrial policy.

The intrigue: These counties are mainly concentrated in southern states but include some areas in the Northeast, West and Midwest.

In effect, it’s created a new center for American private investment — a much different trend than that seen in the 2010-2020 period.

During that time, distressed counties received an average of 8% of total private fixed investment (excluding residential investments) — roughly the same as their share of national GDP.

Aaaaand:

The huge question heading into the 2024 election is what credit Biden gets for the investment boom.

In some states, Republicans are taking credit for the manufacturing renaissance, Axios’ Hans Nichols has reported.

Of course we all “wonder” if Biden will get any credit, which requires that the media report it but here we are back at square one. Still, kudos to Axios for at least putting it out there. maybe someone else will notice. I suspect that the best way for the democrats to get attention to this is by highlighting the GOP members taking credit. It’s only news when it’s “fun.” And that has an element of fun.

One of the more frustrating aspects of this “But He’s Old!” theme that the media has made into this year’s “But Her Emails!” is the fact that Biden is not slipping and we know this because he’s always been gaffe prone. It’s his personality, not his age. I suppose if people really don’t like that about him, that’s legitimate, but then they are back to square one deciding if this guy is the better choice:

Trump: It’s very hard to be sarcastic. When I interpose— I’m not a Nikki fan and I’m not a Pelosi fan. When I purposely interpose names, they say he didn’t know Pelosi from Nikki. pic.twitter.com/UFjnRq4Qg6

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 15, 2024

“When I say that Obama is the president of our country they go: ‘He doesn’t know that it’s Biden! He doesn’t know,’” Trump said Wednesday. “So it’s very hard to be sarcastic.” He went on to say: “I’m not a Nikki fan and I’m not a Pelosi fan, and I when I purposely interpose names, they said: ‘He didn’t know Pelosi from Nikki, from tricky Nikki.’”

“I interpose [the names], and they make a big deal out of it,” Trump said. “I said: ‘No, no, I think they both stink. They have something in common—they both stink,’” he added. “And remember this: when I make a statement like that about Nikki that means she will never be running for vice president.”

That is the lamest, most ridiculous attempt to wriggle out of his obvious mental glitch that I’ve ever seen. Good God, the man not only is incapable of admitting he did something wrong, the gyrations he goes through to pretend that he meant to do it are just jaw dropping.

Anyway, back to Biden. Public Notice (subscribe to Public Notice ) did a service today by posting some examples of Biden’s older gaffes, just for the record:

While filing the paperwork in 2007 for his second failed presidential run, Biden made a racially tone-deaf comment about fellow candidate Barack Obama: “I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that’s a storybook, man.” This was obviously not how he wanted to lead a news cycle after launching his candidacy.

There were other incidents of what the media diagnosed as Biden’s “foot in mouth” disease. He told donors at a private fundraiser just a few weeks before the 2008 presidential election that there would be an “international crisis, a generated crisis” in the first few months of an Obama presidency that would “test the mettle of this guy.” John McCain’s campaign leapt on Biden’s remarks, and the Obama team scrambled to play clean up.

This was a common theme, sort of like the running gag in a political sitcom. The New York Times described Biden in 2008 as a “distinctive blend of pit bull and odd duck” with “weak filters” that made him blurt out “out-of-nowhere comments” and “goofy asides.” The gaffes were usually minor and amusing — describing the Affordable Care Act as a “big fucking deal” or publicly mourning the Irish Prime Minister’s mother who was still very much alive (see video below) — but occasionally, they were politically perilous.

Biden revealed to House Democrats at their 2009 caucus retreat candid White House discussions about the $900 billion economic-stimulus package and how Democrats could face major political blowback in the upcoming midterm elections. Obama later joked, “I don’t remember exactly what Joe was referring to, not surprisingly.”

Then there was Biden’s 2009 appearance on the Todayshowwhen his response to a swine flu outbreak seemed to border on outright panic.

“I would tell members of my family, and I have, I wouldn’t go anywhere in confined places right now,” he said. “It’s not that it’s going to Mexico, it’s that you are in a confined aircraft. When one person sneezes, it goes everywhere through the aircraft. That’s me.”

This infuriated the airline industry, and once again the White House need to smooth over Biden’s remarks. It wasn’t surprising that many Democrats believed Hillary Clinton was a more reliable heir apparent to Obama. (The Washington Post had even asked prior to the 2012 election if Biden was a “liability for Obama.”) However, no one ever suggested Biden was senile. He was perceived more like your wacky uncle after his second beer — good for a laugh but perhaps not the ideal political candidate.

After Biden launched his 2020 presidential campaign, The Guardian observed that over his “decades-long career in politics, he has cultivated a reputation of being gaffe-prone, often stumbling on his words — if not outright saying the wrong thing at the wrong time.” What’s revealing is that the article never makes Biden’s age the issue, and he was already 76. There’s no idle speculation about whether he’s losing a step or outright sundowning. This wasn’t an oversight. If Bill Clinton or Barack Obama suddenly lost their rhetorical mastery, we might assume a possible cognitive decline, but Biden never boasted a reputation as a great communicator or savvy political operator.

Biden has if anything toned done the gaffes with age

In 2015, CNN questioned a potential Biden candidacy after a series of public gaffes. During former Defense Secretary Ashton Carter’s swearing in, Biden held his wife Stephanie’s shoulders and whispered into her ear.

This became another embarrassing viral moment that dogged Biden during his 2020 campaign. However, it’s vanished as a major issue today. Biden, responding to feedback, released a video in 2019 where he apologized for his past handiness and promised to “much more mindful” of personal space. He adjusted his behavior and has had no issues of this sort since. That is not typical of a confused elderly person who’s mentally slipping.

Yes, Biden has a habit of Paul Bunyan-esque tall tales about his life, including vastly overstating his personal involvement in the Civil Rights Movement, but that’s not a recent development. He’s done this for almost 40 years, and there’s no evidence that it’s worsening or that he’s become disconnected from reality. A character quirk shouldn’t trigger the 25th Amendment.

Just like their sham impeachment efforts, Republicans have no actual evidence that Biden’s senile and incompetent. They sound alarms over Biden confusing world leaders with their dead predecessors, but flubs like this are fairly common among past presidents, regardless of age.

During the 2008 campaign, Obama said he’d visited “57 states.” This was obviously a slip of the tongue and a not a sign of early onset dementia. Trump, however, has recently suggested Obama is still president multiple times, to the point where he’s had to try to explain it away by claiming he was being sarcastic. But the sarcasm defense wouldn’t explain Trump in 2019 claiming the Continental Army “took over airports” during the Revolutionary War. That he blamed on the telepromter.

This is key:

The Biden administration has run far more smoothly than one might’ve expected from the Joe Biden who once provided reliable fodder for late night comedy monologues. It wasn’t long before journalists privately and publicly complained that Biden was simply dull — arguably what the media finds more offensive than his advanced age. Politico complained in 2022 that Biden had “over-delivered” on boredom and that this carried “a political cost in a Permanent Washington that, for better or worse, thrills to displays of executive-branch social fireworks.”

Those “fireworks” are more fun for the press to cover than a quietly competent presidential administration. It’s as if they would prefer the Onion parody Biden.

He’s not old, he’s boring and that the news media will not abide. They loved Obama, for instance, and gave him a pretty easy time not because they cared about his ideology but because he’s cool. He’s good looking, played basketball, killed a fly with one hand during an interview and was funny and wry. He could even sing. The Kewl kidz thought Obama was fun in a positive way while Trump was even more fun in a negative way. Either way, it’s all about how much fun they’re having.

Here’s more Trump last night, FYI. I don’t think it’s senility. He’s always done this. He’s just mentally and verbally incontinent and always has been.

There is no denying it- Trump is going senile.

It is impossible to watch this clip of him rambling and not come to the same conclusion.

We had a better option than this.

pic.twitter.com/7EXfj3GQGm

— Peter Henlein (@SwissWatchGuy) February 15, 2024

At this point in 2016, former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland – who left office far less popular than Hogan did in Maryland – was in a dogfight against Sen. Rob Portman.

Ad wars began, partisanship locked in, and Portman won by 18 points.https://t.co/CmQTFSn48B https://t.co/mldHExQdeE pic.twitter.com/KWbgLhMqCq

— David Weigel (@daveweigel) February 15, 2024

Emerson Maryland Senate poll
Hogan 42, Trone 42
Hogan 44, Alsobrooks 37

Dem primary
Trone 32, Alsobrooks 17, Undecided 37https://t.co/5ne2mETEJc

— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) February 15, 2024

I will be shocked if Maryland sends Hogan to the Senate. He was a popular governor but his time has passed. I’m not even sure he can get Republican votes since the rural areas are very MAGA and he’ll have to separate himself very strongly from Trump. It’s a blue state and I think Democratic voters understand the stakes this time. I hope …

The Devil didn’t go down to Georgia

MSNBC just reported jury selection for Donald “91 Counts” Trump’s trial in Manhattan on hush money payments will begin March 25.

Washington Post:

Former president Donald Trump is in a Manhattan courtroom Thursday for a hearing in one of his criminal cases, while a hearing in a different case is held in Atlanta.

In New York, a judge ordered jury selection to begin on March 25 in Trump’s trial related to 2016 hush money payments. The judge also denied a motion to dismiss the case.

The Atlanta hearing centers on allegations that Fulton County District Attorney Fani T. Willis (D) engaged in an improper relationship with a special prosecutor she named to lead the case.

In Manhattan, Trump faces “34 counts of falsifying business records connected with alleged hush money payments made to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential campaign.” Trump is in the courtroom now.

In the Georgia case, Trump and others were charged with conspiring to overturn the 2020 presidential election results there. Trump and some of his co-defendants are seeking to have Willis removed from the case and the charges dismissed. Judge Scott McAfee said Thursday’s hearing will look into whether she financially benefited from hiring special prosecutor Nathan Wade, when their romantic relationship began and whether it continues.

Willis’ continued involvement in the Trump election conspiracy case may turn on when she hired Wade for the Trump case, before or after their relationship began.

NBC News reports that Trump’s effort to have his New York case dismissed failed:

The judge presiding over Donald Trump’s New York criminal trial on Thursday denied his bid to dismiss the charges against him and ordered his trial to proceed as scheduled next month.

The “defendant’s motions to dismiss have been denied,” Judge Juan Merchan told the packed Manhattan courtroom, which included the former president at the defense table. “We will move ahead with jury selection on March 25th.”

The absurdity of Trump even being considered as a presidential candidate by a major American political party is gobsmacking. The clip below featuring former Chief Assistant District Attorney of the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office, Karen Friedman Agnifilo, sums up the lunacy of what the rest of the world sees and I’m watching now.

Agnifilo: You’ve got Trump who’s been found by a jury to have sexually assaulted Carroll… and somehow that is not disqualifying for the highest office but Fani Willis is in a consensual relationship and that there’s a hearing happening about this, I think that’s atrocious pic.twitter.com/9u4MyxB0Gs

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 15, 2024

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Another debunking years later

One of the most infuriating aspects of the right-wing Contract On America is how obvious the cons are. No, that’s not it, either. It’s that we, the reality-based community, dumbly play along as if there’s some factual basis behind them. The collective We give “the miners, and sappers–of returning despotism” the benefit of the doubt.

Like parents with a toddler still trying to grasp object permanence, we play along when the child acts as though the red ball we’ve palmed has ceased to exist. So, too, with the right’s allegations of election fraud that time and again prove to be the actual fraud. Why? Because it would be bad form to call out the infant-like credulity of diner-dwelling Real Americans™? Or impolite to brand them liars and cheats and unAmerican, even if justly deserved?

The tactic: Lob a “voter fraud” smoke grenade into the news cycle and shout fire. The “news” compliantly plays along, front-paging the false story. By the time the smoke clears and we discover, yet again, there was never a fire, all the public remembers is they saw smoke and heard someone yelling, “Fire!” The official debunking months later gets buried. Mission accomplished, again. Everyone not a dupe or a villain knew the allegations were bunk, yet played along. Wouldn’t want to hurt America’s saboteurs’ feelings.

Ordered by a judge to turn over evidence of election fraud that it had long claimed to have, the right-wing group True the Vote now admits that no such evidence exists.
The MAGA movement is a fascist con job. https://t.co/v3ZoQtbWw5

— Mark Jacob (@MarkJacob16) February 15, 2024

And here we go again. Behold (Associated Press):

SAVANNAH, Ga. (AP) — A conservative group has told a Georgia judge that it doesn’t have evidence to support its claims of illegal ballot stuffing during the the 2020 general election and a runoff two months later.

Texas-based True the Vote filed complaints with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in 2021, including one in which it said it had obtained “a detailed account of coordinated efforts to collect and deposit ballots in drop boxes across metro Atlanta” during the November 2020 election and a January 2021 runoff.

A Fulton County Superior Court judge in Atlanta signed an order last year requiring True the Vote to provide evidence it had collected, including the names of people who were sources of information, to state elections officials who were frustrated by the group’s refusal to share evidence with investigators.

In their written response, attorneys for True the Vote said the group had no names or other documentary evidence to share.

[…]

True the Vote’s complaint said its investigators “spoke with several individuals regarding personal knowledge, methods, and organizations involved in ballot trafficking in Georgia.” It said one person, referred to in the complaint only as John Doe, “admitted to personally participating and provided specific information about the ballot trafficking process.”

A Georgia judge demanded that True the Vote produce evidence to support its claims: “names and contact information for anyone who had provided information, as well as any recordings, transcripts, witness statements or other documents supporting its allegations.” Including any confidentiality agreements.

The group’s attorneys replied: “TTV has no such documents in its possession, custody, or control.”

Pressed to put up or shut up, True the Vote will do neither. There was no “detailed account.” There was no John Doe they could produce. The allegations were bullshit. True the Vote and founder and president, Catherine Engelbrecht, will not be fined. They will just reset and run the same con again and again so long as they get away with being a public nuisance.

To my knowledge, Rudy Giouliani has produced none of the voluminous “proof” he claimed to have from 2020 of election wrongdoing, and for which several of his collaborators have faced charges and/or disbarment. But he got lots of headlines and TV coverage of his unsupported allegations.

Bill Clinton nailed the right’s approach to sabotaging the country 20 years ago in an interview with Jon Stewart:

Stewart: Do you believe that politics has gotten so dirty … that these kinds of tactics become so prevalent that this is the reason half the country doesn’t vote? Or this is the reason that we don’t get, maybe, the officials that we deserve?

Clinton: No, I think people do it because they think it works.

Stewart: That’s it? Simply a strategy?

Clinton: Absolutely. And as soon as it doesn’t work, they’ll stop doing it.

Twenty years later, it’s still working. We know what that says about them. What does it say about us?

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And I’m talking about stupid weird

Monmouth poll:

 – Just under 1 in 5 Americans believe the singer Taylor Swift is part of a covert effort to help President Joe Biden win the 2024 election. At the same time, the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll also finds that most Americans are supportive of efforts by Swift to encourage her fans to vote.

Just under half (46%) of the American public has heard something about Swift being part of a supposed covert government effort to help Biden win the 2024 presidential election. Just under 1 in 5 Americans (18%) believe such a conspiracy involving Swift exists. Fully 71% of those who believe this identify with or lean toward the Republican Party and 83% indicate they are likely to support Donald Trump in the fall. Also, nearly three-quarters (73%) of those who believe the Swift conspiracy also believe the 2020 election outcome was fraudulent. [Monmouth will be releasing a poll on the 2024 presidential election tomorrow.] It should be noted that the group of poll respondents who accept the Swift story as fact includes some people who claim to have been unaware of it (i.e., 42% of those who say the conspiracy exists also say they had not heard about it before being contacted by Monmouth).

“The supposed Taylor Swift PsyOp conspiracy has legs among a decent number of Trump supporters. Even many who hadn’t heard about it before we polled them accept the idea as credible. Welcome to the 2024 election,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

On a less sinister note, two-thirds (68%) of the American public approves of Swift encouraging her fans to vote in the upcoming election. However, Republicans (42%) are much less supportive than Democrats (88%) and independents (71%) of these turnout efforts.

If this polling is representative, roughly 25 million registered voters believe this inane nonsense.

If the Republicans are really curious about why they are losing this is one of the reasons. They MAGA movement is full of weirdos. And that includes their Dear Leader.

This is good:

AOC: Trump is around the same age.. They could have gone a high school together and Trump has 91 indictments and I know who I'm going to choose. It’s going to be the one on most successful presidents in modern American history that passed the inflation reduction act,… pic.twitter.com/CUYQMMOLsb

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 14, 2024

AOC: We need to be very, very realistic about the grave impacts of a Donald Trump election. It is not a joke. It is not a game. We need to protect our democracy.. pic.twitter.com/u98oTBTS98

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 14, 2024

None of that means she’s going to back off on the issues that matter to her — Gaza pre-eminent among them. It does mean that she isn’t being myopic about the stakes for the whole world, including Gaza, if Trump wins the election. It will be a nightmare of epic proportions.

She is an amazing politician and I can’t wait to see how she matures even further. I would vote for her in a second.

Could it work this time?

With members of the GOP at each others’ throats and yet another special election loss, largely due to their inane antics on the border/foreign military aid bill, it just might:

With House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) swearing he will not allow a House vote on a Senate-passed bill to provide Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in weaponry to fight off a Russian invasion, supporters of aid to the nation ― who make up a clear majority of Congress ― are looking for alternatives.

The option that’s been mentioned most is a so-called discharge petition, signed by a majority of House members to force a floor vote. But the history of discharge petitions shows they are far easier to talk about than actually execute. Still, it may prove to be the best available option to get the Ukranians needed weaponry.

“It’s a dreadfully slow, cumbersome, and brittle process that is not well suited for anything dynamic or urgent,” said Liam Donovan, a former Republican Hill staffer and a partner at lobbying firm Bracewell LLP.

The Senate cleared the $95.5 billion bill early Tuesday morning after working through the weekend on it. It would provide about $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, mostly by funding replacement equipment for existing U.S. weapons sent to Ukraine and for Ukraine to buy new weapons.

Funds would also be provided for Israel ― to support stepped-up U.S. military activity in the region, humanitarian aid to Gaza, and for beefing up Taiwan’s defense.

The Senate vote was 70 to 29, with 26 Republicans, two Democrats and one independent voting against it.

There’s little doubt (even among opponents of Ukraine aid) that the bill would easily pass the House if Johnson brought it up for a vote.

“If it were to get to the floor, it would pass — let’s just be frank about that,” admitted Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus and an opponent of aid to Ukraine, on “The John Fredericks Show” on Tuesday morning.

Despite the clear support, Johnson doubled down Tuesday, insisting he would not take the bill up on the floor, despite its bipartisan margin in the Senate and the possibility of a similar tally if the House voted on it.

“The House has to work its will on this. There’s a deliberative process, and we’re engaged in that,” Johnson told Fox News.

“I certainly oppose it and hope it would not be considered,” he said of a discharge petition.

He’s only following orders. In the past he supported the aid to Ukraine but Dear Leader needs to scratch his good buddy in Russia’s back if he expect to get the help he needs in the election. So that’s that.

The MAGA weirdos have him by the short hairs:

Johnson could allow the bill on the floor, but require a two-thirds majority for it to pass, as he has done recently with bills he’s supported but were blocked by his fellow Republicans. But that could further antagonize anti-Ukraine members of his own party who then could try to oust him, as happened with his predecessor, former Rep. Kevin McCarthy.

Discharge petitions are a way to get around such sycophancy but they are hardly ever tired because they hardly ever work.

Since 1996, only two bills have made it to the House floor through a discharge petition — a 2015 bill to reauthorize the Export-Import Bank, and in 2002, a campaign finance measure named for the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.). Both went on to become law.

Usually discharge petitions are started by members of the minority party with the hope of getting all of their fellow party members and a handful of the majority to sign on and provide the 218 signatures needed. But signing the other party’s petition risks angering party colleagues and leaders.

And that’s not all. Under House rules, the bill the discharge petition would be trying to get freed from being bottled up in a committee has to have been in that committee for at least 30 “legislative days.” That includes only days the House meets, which means it would be longer than 30 calendar days.

With a possible debt default looming last year, Democrats cooked up an effort to try to supercharge a discharge petition timetable by having it aimed at a bill that had already been referred to several committees for more than 30 days. But using that petition for Ukraine would have its own issues.

Donovan said forcing the Senate bill onto the floor could take at least 40 days using a new discharge petition, and using the petition originally set up for the debt limit would mean sending the bill back to the Senate for final passage, which would also add time.

“In other words, it’s a terrible option that may eventually prove to be the cleanest dirty shirt,” he said. Donovan noted another option for giving aid to Ukraine may be forthcoming negotiations over how to avoid a government shutdown: “The big question in the meantime is how the House deals with regular appropriations, and whether these conversations can be merged.”

They could take a page from the MAGAs and take some hostages:

Emergency post: here is the one way to guarantee #Ukraine aid is put on the floor of the house for a vote, only need 3 or 4 people to do this. Historic moment requiring historic courage pic.twitter.com/8dIkHqnt6s

— Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇮🇱 (@AdamKinzinger) February 7, 2024

“Only three or four House Republicans have to agree to take down every rule until that agreement is made and it’s iron-clad,” he said. “The best analogy I use is if everybody in a room has a hand grenade, the one that’s willing to actually pull the pin and drop the grenade is the most powerful of all these grenade-wielding people.”

That seems pretty far-fetched. But there are a whole lot of Republics retiring next year. Maybe they could round up a handful who don’t think starting WWIII in Europe is a great idea.

This is such a mess and I truly hope the Democrats work very hard to let the American people know just how fucked up these people really are.