Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

I know most of you will not watch the SOTU tonight. I wouldn’t if I didn’t have to. But when you hear about what he said, keep in mind that he lies about everything.

Here is a partial list of his real accomplishments:

The stock market is crashing

Inflation is soaring

Started a trade war with Canada and Mexico, threatens more with …. everyone

Insulted our NATO partners and threatened worldwide democracy

Fired thousands of federal workers

Threw the government into chaos

Made the nation and the world far sicker

Sided with Russia over Ukraine

I don’t know how he will be able to say anything else but he is very adept at creating a fantasy world in which he is the hero. It will all be lies.

Pew Surveys put out this handy cheat sheet to remind yourself what the American people think all this before the speech:

Economy: 24% of U.S. adults say the economy is in excellent or good shape, while far more say it’s doing only fair (45%) or poor (31%). Looking ahead, partisans have very different predictions about what economic conditions will look like a year from now: 73% of Republicans say they’ll be better, and 64% of Democrats say they’ll be worse.

Groceries: More Americans expect the affordability of food and consumer goods to get worse (43%) rather than better (37%) over the course of 2025. Another 19% say it will stay about the same. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to predict prices will improve.

Health care: Affordability of health care is one of Americans’ top concerns, with 67% of adults saying it’s a very big problem – up 10 percentage points since last spring. Again, more expect affordability to get worse rather than better in the coming year (45% vs. 20%).

Immigration: Majorities of U.S. adults support certain policy steps, including increasing deportations (59%) and sending more military forces to the southern border (58%). Fewer support cutting federal funds for cities and states if they don’t help federal deportation efforts (47%) or suspending asylum applications (44%). Republicans broadly approve of all these policy actions, while Democrats do not.

Birthright citizenship:More Americans disapprove than approve of Trump’s executive order redefining birthright citizenship in the U.S. (56% vs. 43%). Strong disapproval of the order is more widespread than strong approval (40% vs. 23%).

Ukraine: As of early February, 30% of Americans say the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine in its war with Russia, while 22% say it is not giving enough. Another 23% say the amount of support is about right. Republicans remain more likely than Democrats to say the U.S. is giving too much support (47% vs. 14%) and to say helping Ukraine hurts U.S. national security (40% vs. 21%).

NATO: Fewer than half of Republicans (47%) say the U.S. benefits a great deal or fair amount from NATO membership – the lowest share measured since we started asking this question in 2021. By comparison, 82% of Democrats say the U.S. benefits from being a NATO member.

Federal workers: 55% of Americans have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in federal career employees to act in the best interests of the public, but partisan divisions on this question are wide. And though Americans have long viewed a number of federal agencies favorably, a 56% majority have the overall sense that government is “almost always wasteful and inefficient.”

Policies affecting trans Americans: Compared with 2022, Americans have become more likely to favor certain restrictions for transgender people, such as requiring trans athletes to compete on teams that match their sex at birth (66%) and banning health care professionals from providing care related to gender transitions for minors (56%).

Elon Musk: As Musk continues to hold an influential role in the Trump administration, the overall balance of public opinion on him tilts more negative than positive (54% vs. 42%). Republicans mostly see Musk favorably (73%) while Democrats largely see him unfavorably (85%).

Climate: Climate change is among Democrats’ top concerns this year, with 67% saying it’s a very big problem. Just 13% of Republicans agree. When thinking about climate policy, Democrats prioritize protecting the environment for future generations, while Republicans place the most emphasis on keeping consumer costs low.

SOTU speeches rarely change anything. If anything his dumpster fire will just thrill his cultists. But it’s a good moment to bookmark and check back where we are in a month or two.

It’s hard to keep track of all the atrocities so I’ll just try to highlight a few of them each day. This one kind of broke my heart. He’s going to raze the forests, take down the trees that help prevent wildfires and kill the endangered species. For real:

Donald Trump has ordered that swathes of America’s forests be felled for timber, evading rules to protect endangered species while doing so and raising the prospect of chainsaws razing some of the most ecologically important trees in the US.

The president, in an executive order, has demanded an expansion in tree cutting across 280m acres (113m hectares) of national forests and other public lands, claiming that “heavy-handed federal policies” have made America reliant on foreign imports of timber. “It is vital that we reverse these policies and increase domestic timber production to protect our national and economic security,” the order adds.

Trump has instructed the US Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management to increase logging targets and for officials to circumvent the US’s Endangered Species Act by using unspecified emergency powers to ignore protections placed upon vulnerable creatures’ habitats.

This move is similar to recent instructions by Trump to use a rarely-used committee to push through fossil fuel projects even if they imperil at-risk species. Experts have said this overriding of the Endangered Species Act is probably illegal.

The order also stipulates logging projects can be sped up if they are for purported wildfire risk reduction, via “thinning” of vegetation that could ignite. Some scientists have said that aggressively felling forests, particularly established, fire-resistant trees, actually increases the risk of fast-moving fires.

One expert said, “Trump’s exact approach, logging in remote forests and telling communities that it will stop fires, is responsible for numerous towns being destroyed by fires in recent years, and hundreds of lives lost.”

Environmental groups decried Trump’s latest attempt to circumvent endangered species laws that shield about 400 species in national forests, including grizzly bears, spotted owls and wild salmon, and warned an increase in logging could pollute the water supply relied upon by millions of Americans.

“Trump’s order will unleash the chainsaws and bulldozers on our federal forests. Clearcutting these beautiful places will increase fire risk, drive species to extinction, pollute our rivers and streams, and destroy world-class recreation sites,” said Randi Spivak public lands policy director for the Center for Biological Diversity.

The logging interests are very excited, particularly since Trump is hitting Canada with lumber tariffs. They’ll get a free hand to completely destroy the national forests as a demonstration of America First.

Musk is firing tons of forest service workers as well. I suspect he sees this as his version of “raking the forest.”

Which may be sooner than they expect

It’s a personal bond between them and Trump and a shared mutual hatred for “Democrats” who they see as their most dangerous enemy. The last man in the piece, who walks off in anger because he doesn’t like hearing the facts the reporter is pointing to in her questions. He is emotional and uncomfortable and that means he is being confronted with an uncomfortable truth. (I’ve been there with people in my own life… it’s always very obvious when it happens.)

It’s clear they are all living in a MAGA cult information silo, of course. But the way things are going, the right wingers had better get some talking points together on war and recession and that’s not easy. He’ll try to blame Joe Biden for everything and he believes blame is all that’s necessary. But at some point, it has to click in with a few of his cultists that he promised to fix everything instantly and has taken radical actions that guarantee chaos not solutions. Maybe. They are very far gone.

The Trade War has begun

BREAKING: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau just dropped a bomb on Trump. He speaks directly to the American people.

He explains clearly the repercussions of Trump's Trade War on Canada, and exactly how it's going to cause tremendous pain to Americans.

He is clear that… pic.twitter.com/vGZyHZifWt

— Ed Krassenstein (@EdKrassen) March 4, 2025

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau denounced President Donald Trump for launching a trade war with his country, saying that he won’t back down from a tariff fight with the United States.

“Today, the United States launched a trade war against Canada. At the same time, they’re talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin — a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense,” Trudeau said in Ottawa.“Canadians are reasonable and we are polite, but we will not back down from a fight, not when our country and the well being of everyone in it is at stake.”

Trudeau pledged relief to Canadian workers caught in the trade war’s crosshairs, and told the American people that his quarrel was not with them. “We don’t want this. We want to work with you as a friend and ally, and we don’t want to see you hurt either, but your government has chosen to do this to you,” he said.

Trudeau reserved his bluntest remarks for the president.

“It’s not in my habit to agree with The Wall Street Journal, but Donald, they point out that even though you’re a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do,” Trudeau said. “We two friends fighting is exactly what our opponents around the world want to see.”

It makes no sense but Trump is convinced that he can eliminate the national debt through tariffs and there’s no talking him out of it. He just can’t understand anything and his sycophants either believe his alleged magical prowess to change reality through will alone or are just too cowardly to cross him. So here we are.

The New York Times:

The New York Times has heard from nearly 100 companies that import from China about how the president’s tariffs were affecting them. They are a cross-section of striving enterprises stitched into the global economy: companies that make greeting cards, board games, outdoor footwear, hangers, digital picture frames, coffee equipment, toys, stained-glass windows and custom electronics.

Several themes emerged. American businesses, not Chinese suppliers, were shouldering the cost of tariffs. Many companies said they would have to raise prices to offset the expense if they had not already. Some spoke of a feeling of business paralysis: They were afraid to make plans amid the unpredictable stream of new tariffs, fearing the risk of moving production out of China since no country seemed immune.

Turning to domestic alternatives was usually not viable because they were more expensive, the quality was inferior and there were fewer options. Finally, completely reinventing their supply chain would be a huge undertaking for the companies, requiring time and expense they cannot easily spare.

[…]

For 18 years, Chris Miksovsky’s San Francisco-based company, Humangear, has designed its outdoor and travel products in the United States and produced them in Chinese factories.

But remembering the sting of tariffs during the first Trump presidency, Mr. Miksovsky, 56, wanted to see if domestic manufacturing made more sense now. He wanted to start simple with Humangear’s best-selling but easiest-to-make product: a plastic utensil with a fork on one end and a spoon on the other used for camping.

He emailed six companies, four of which never responded. The two that did express an interest asked a lot of questions about product specifications. After Mr. Miksovsky answered every inquiry, one company stopped answering his emails, and the other replied weeks later apologizing but did not provide a quote.

“It’s very fine to say we’re going to put these tariffs in place to bring jobs back to America,” he said. “That assumes that America has the capability to make your product, and, more important, it assumes that it has the interest in making that product.”

The stock market tanked very quickly this morning but rebounded. I don’t know why. Maybe they think Trump is a magical superhero too. But he is not. The laws of physics and economics have not been suspended. So everyone should take a deep breath. He’s doing it.

Lech Walesa, former hero of the right wing:

Your Excellency, Mr. President,

We watched the report of your conversation with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, with fear and distaste. We find it insulting that you expect Ukraine to show respect and gratitude for the material assistance provided by the United States in its fight against russia. Gratitude is owed to the heroic Ukrainian soldiers who shed their blood in defense of the values of the free world. They have been dying on the front lines for more than 11 years in the name of these values and the independence of their homeland, which was attacked by Putin’s russia.

We do not understand how the leader of a country that symbolizes the free world cannot recognize this.

Our alarm was also heightened by the atmosphere in the Oval Office during this conversation, which reminded us of the interrogations we endured at the hands of the Security Services and the debates in Communist courts. Prosecutors and judges, acting on behalf of the all-powerful communist political police, would explain to us that they held all the power while we held none. They demanded that we cease our activities, arguing that thousands of innocent people suffered because of us. They stripped us of our freedoms and civil rights because we refused to cooperate with the government or express gratitude for our oppression. We are shocked that President Volodymyr Zelensky was treated in the same manner.

The history of the 20th century shows that whenever the United States sought to distance itself from democratic values and its European allies, it ultimately became a threat to itself. President Woodrow Wilson understood this when he decided in 1917 that the United States must join World War I. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt understood this when, after the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, he resolved that the war to defend America must be fought not only in the Pacific but also in Europe, in alliance with the nations under attack by the Third Reich.

We remember that without President Ronald Reagan and America’s financial commitment, the collapse of the Soviet empire would not have been possible. President Reagan recognized that millions of enslaved people suffered in Soviet russia and the countries it had subjugated, including thousands of political prisoners who paid for their defense of democratic values with their freedom. His greatness lay, among other things, in his unwavering decision to call the USSR an “Empire of Evil” and to fight it decisively. We won, and today, the statue of President Ronald Reagan stands in Warsaw, facing the U.S. Embassy.

Mr. President, material aid—military and financial—can never be equated with the blood shed in the name of Ukraine’s independence and the freedom of Europe and the entire free world. Human life is priceless; its value cannot be measured in money. Gratitude is due to those who sacrifice their blood and their freedom. This is self-evident to us, the people of Solidarity, former political prisoners of the communist regime under Soviet russia.

We call on the United States to uphold the guarantees made alongside Great Britain in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which established a direct obligation to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity in exchange for its relinquishment of nuclear weapons. These guarantees are unconditional—there is no mention of treating such assistance as an economic transaction.

Signed,

Lech Wałęsa, former political prisoner, President of Poland

I’m fairly sure Trump never knew anything about Walesa except that he was on Larry King in the 1980s. It wouldn’t have been of interest to him and he’s never read anything so he doesn’t care. But there are some right wingers left who do remember him and they have thrown their lot in with the Russia loving Putin. But then, Putin isn’t a commie, he’s an authoritarian oligarch and they apparently like them just fine.

I have no great love for H.R Master but he’s got Trump’s number — and Putin’s. Trump isn’t happy about it:

“H.R. MCMASTER IS A WEAK AND TOTALLY INEFFECTIVE LOSER!” Trump posted to his social media platform Truth Social late Sunday.

“We should spend less time worrying about Putin, and more time worrying about migrant rape gangs, drug lords, murderers, and people from mental institutions entering our Country—So that we don’t end up like Europe!” Trump wrote in a separate post.

In another post early Monday, Trump claimed that he was “the only president who gave none of Ukraine’s land to Putin’s Russia,” despite the fact that the deal cooked up by his administration thus far would fail to return Ukraine to its prewar borders.

He’s mad about a 60 Minutes interview with McMaster in which he said that Trump is being played by Putin. (Duh…)

“Vladimir Putin couldn’t be happier. Because what he sees is all of the pressure on Zelenskiy, all of the pressure on Ukraine, and no pressure on him.”

McMaster noted that Putin is a “master manipulator” with a deep understanding of how to work Trump to Russia’s advantage.

“He appeals to President Trump’s sense of aggrievement,” McMaster said. “And he’s been very successful at it because he’s a master manipulator and one of the best liars in the world.”

He may be the best liar in the world. But he isn’t the biggest. I think you know who that is.

What is going on here?

Republican officials are behaving like junior high bullies everywhere they go these days. They seem to have lost all restraint and are letting their ids run wild. And it’s not just one or two. They’re all doing it. WTF?

Police-state tactics

Lech Wałęsa knows from police state tactics (via The Daily Beast):

Legendary Polish anti-Communist Lech Wałęsa has slammed Donald Trump’s Oval Office attack on Ukraine’s Volodymr Zelensky, comparing it to Soviet secret police tactics.

Wałęsa, 81, signed a letter along with 38 other Poles who had been held captive by the Communist regime, telling Trump that the Friday spectacle filled them “with horror and distaste.”

The former Polish president previously revealed that he met Trump at Mar-a-Lago in 2010, and attached a photo of the two of them to the letter, which he posted on Facebook on Monday.

The letter was signed by Wałęsa and 38 former Polish political prisoners, who said “the atmosphere in the Oval Office” reminded them of “Security Service interrogations and from the courtrooms in communist courts.”

“Prosecutors and judges, commissioned by the omnipotent communist political police, also explained to us that they had all the cards in their hands, and we had none,” they write in the letter, referencing President Donald Trump’s comment that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not in a position to negotiate.

Expect more bullying and bluster at Trump’s address tonight to a joint session of Congress. I’m still hoping Democrats won’t drag poor, fired federal workers to sit as props in the chamber and endure the flood of Trumpish demagoguery. Do Democrats really expect the press will pay workers any attention during that reality show? They should instead hold a counter-programming event on the Capitol steps. Make the press split its attention. 

Plus, I’m a Democrat in Congress. Do I want to be caught dead in a joint session where Trump aligns with Putin’s Russia against Ukraine and our E.U. allies? After last week’s Oval Office shouting match, how confident am I that that won’t happen? 

* * * * *

Have you fought the coup today?
Choose Democracy
Indivisible: A Guide to Democracy on the Brink
You Have Power
Chop Wood, Carry Water

There’s a target on your back, people

Last night notices went out here in NC-11 that Congressman Chuck Edwards (R) has planned a town hall for next week in his R+8 district. Good on him and good luck. The last one I attended did not go as he’d hoped. After the rowdy affairs going on around the country, he’s likely had time to set this up more as a lecture than a Q&A.

Nevertheless, Edwards will hear plenty about Musk and his DOGE post-teens treating the government — your government and mine — like a stolen car in a chop shop. Musk grew up in South Africa and barely knows how our government works. Oh, but his techies are going to go into computer software that fell out of general use before they were born and eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse — the free-energy device of conservative politics. Entire cities might be powered by waste fraud, and abuse if only it could be captured. But Big Energy doesn’t want you to know how. (I saw it in a YouTube ad.)

No Republican in Congress with any of that vaunted, private-sector business experience would let a 20-something, no matter how computer savvy, with no management, life, or business experience muck around in the software that serves their customers. But that’s what Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE are doing with government agencies that serve you. Republicans are hell at breaking things others built.

On my first congressional race, I expected to do no more than stuff envelopes or make phone calls. Then the campaign manager emerged from the back office and asked the room if anyone knew how to do a mail merge. The 20-somethings who grew up with computers didn’t budge. I raised my hand. Later, a similar question about manipulating a database. Same silence and my raised hand. I soon had my own desk and computer. The kids knew far more about computers and networks than I did, but they didn’t have 20 years’ experience operating business software. Neither do Musk’s DOGEes. The results you’ve read about and soon will feel.

You’ll recall how Texas Gov. Rick Perry ran for president on eliminating several government agencies, then in debate couldn’t name the one he later ended up running under Donald Trump: the Department of Energy. As a Texan, Perry likely thought Energy interfered with free-market wildcatters by regulating the oil and gas industry. It monitors fissile materials and the U.S. nuclear stockpile. When Musk’s young coders fired key Energy officials last month, then scrambled to rehire them, they demonstrated that they knew even less about what the agency does and how vital it is to national security.

Rex Huppke writes:

When unelected President Elon Musk isn’t busy firing federal workers and wildly overstating how much money he’s saving the government, the billionaire is finding time to falsely claim Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme.”

Why would he say that about a beloved program more than 70 million older Americans rely on as major source of income?

Probably because he’s too rich to have an inkling of an idea how vital Social Security is to regular Americans and resents the idea of wealthy people like himself having to pay into a government program that helps the non-billionaire class. Musk is nothing if not myopic.

He’s already announced plans to cut Social Security staff by 7,000 and close six of 10 regional offices. Former Social Security commissioner and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley warned last week:

“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”

Ahead of any interruption in benefits, “people should start saving now,” O’Malley said.

Edwards will hear volumes about that.

The Alliance for Retired Americans issued a statement in response to Musk:

Social Security is a social insurance program. Workers and employers pay in, money goes to the Social Security Trust Fund and is paid out when due. Social Security has a Board of Trustees and professional actuaries who report annually on the health of the
Trust Fund.

It’s solvent and the benefits are guaranteed (unlike the stock market or a private equity fund). In 89 years, Social Security has never missed a payment.

Now inexperienced DOGE coders are in its personnel files and its software finding millions of “dead” people. Start saving now.

Musk either doesn’t know what he’s doing or, worse, he does and it’s malicious (New York Times):

When DOGE first published its list of canceled contracts, there were about 1,100 examples.

The five largest were wrong.

In one case, DOGE listed a contract worth $8 million as actually being worth $8 billion. In another, it mistakenly counted the same $655 million contract three times. In yet another, it erroneously said that a huge contract at the Social Security Administration had been fully canceled, saving $232 million. In reality, only a small project within that contract had been canceled. Actual savings: $560,000.

Sen. Bernie Sanders votes for malicious. Huppke again:

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., posted on social media that “Social Security keeps 18 million seniors out of poverty every year. Trump and Musk are lying about it for one reason: so they can cut, privatize & dismantle it.”

There’s no reason to doubt that at this point. Musk’s sloppy axing of federal workers and contracts has demonstrated little concern or understanding of government work and how it might actually benefit Americans who don’t have the money to build rocket ships.

The constitutional crisis is here. Musk-Trump is engaged in a rolling coup. Trump is centralizing power in himself and usurping Congress’. He’s delegated control of the federal government to the kind of people who would sell you the air you breathe if they could control how it gets to your nose. And if you cannot afford to buy their air, well, you should have worked harder, planned better, and saved more.

Chuck Edwards will hear a lot about that next week … if he doesn’t cancel or switch venues at the last minute.

* * * * *

Have you fought the coup today?
Choose Democracy
Indivisible: A Guide to Democracy on the Brink
You Have Power
Chop Wood, Carry Water

The details of what’s happening with the economy are frankly a bit beyond my ken so I was grateful to see this easy explainer from Josh Marshall today. (And you should subscribe if you can. His site is super valuable right now.)

The Atlanta Fed has again lowered its projection for first quarter 2025 GDP. It had been predicting growth of 2.3%. At the end of last week that was revised to 1.5% contraction and this morning they were again down-revised 2.8% contraction, or in other words 2.8% negative growth. To be clear these aren’t final or official stats. We’re only two-thirds of the way through the quarter. They are a prediction based on current indicators. But if it’s not clear that would mean a steep move into recession. And the numbers which presage that outcome are largely tied to general economic uncertainty and various collective economic decisions based on the expectations of a dramatic ramp up in U.S. tariffs and tariff retaliation.

Normally, you wouldn’t expect that an administration would be able to manage such a stark reversal six weeks into a presidency. The first three weeks of the quarter weren’t even under Trump. What’s critical however is that consumers and businesses have known about or expected big new tariffs since mid-November. And a lot of this is an import spending spree trying to get out ahead of the onset of tariffs. So in that sense, as an economic reality, Trump’s second administration really began almost four months ago. That’s more than enough time for this kind of economic impact. The Commerce Department also released data Friday showing a sharp drop off in consumer sentiment and purchasing. And that at least directionally matches private sector data from the end of last month.

With these predictions you get a sense of why Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says he’s going to change the way the US government calculates GDP.

I like to avoid interpreting macro-economic data. It’s just too far out of my knowledge area. With that said, I would say the best argument for skepticism about these numbers is that a significant amount of the prediction is based on what was basically an import spending spree trying to get ahead of Trump’s predicted tariffs. And we don’t have a lot of history going back upwards of a century with private sector anticipation of dramatic increases in protectionism. So perhaps the models are locked into a somewhat unrealistic way of interpreting this data. Or perhaps they’re technically correct – this is kind of what GDP is – but in a way that would be more transitory than we’d normally expect because it’s not rooted in deeper, organic problems in the economy. But that seems like a bit of a stretch. (Curious what others with more experience with these kinds of numbers think.) It’s also worth noting that there’s a lot more economic uncertainty, just in the last few weeks. And that’s likely not fully showing up in the economic data.

As Josh further points out, there are a lot of economic drivers — fires, floods, etc. But it’s the uncertainty, stupid. Nobody knows what’s happening and they don’t know if they can trust what the government is telling them about what is happening. That translates into “wait and see” at best which is basically a stall.

I noted earlier that the Dow plunged today on the news that Trump is rushing ahead with his 25% tariffs on on Mexico and Canada, so fasten your seatbelts, We have a whole lot of turbulence ahead of us.