After reading Rick Perlstein’s great essay on the history of polling I’m trying to not take any polling seriously. Our obsession with them, fed by all these new polling sites with averages and projections is really just a parlor game.
Having said that, I can’t help but look at them. I urge you not to follow my example if you value your sanity.
But if you happen to come come across a story or two about the polling, here’s some perspective for you:
Red wavers have dumped a lot of polls on to NC and PA and RCP now shows both states and the Electoral College favoring Trump. Same tactics, same players, same bullshit. https://t.co/uWFmLJdQQ6
Truthfully, it’s all kind of bullshit. But do keep in mind that the right wing players are trying to set expectations by claiming Trump has a lead so that when he loses they can claim it was stolen.
Just in case you weren’t familiar with the quality of Kris Kristofferson’s character, here’s an interview from 1991 of him alongside Weylon Jennings, Johnny Cash, and Willie Nelson where they speak about the problems in America. RIP to a real legend. https://t.co/DKNuBlGARnpic.twitter.com/CbHGtEo00p
He was always one of my favorites. The guy was a real renaissance man, a super athlete, Rhodes scholar, military officer, political radical, musician, artist, actor, overall mensch and the coolest guy in the world. What a life. We are lucky to have shared it with him.
What a waste of valuable resources. What a selfish opportunist Trump is. How many could be rescued by the first responders diverted to protect Donald? https://t.co/NueNKd4Xfb
Recall that Trump had an ongoing feud with Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, when he was in office. And his administration denied North Carolina what it needed to recover from Hurricane Matthew:
Governor Cooper today expressed his disappointment in the Trump Administration and Congressional leadership after they failed to fulfill North Carolina’s funding request for Hurricane Matthew recovery. In a letter, Cooper urged for more robust aid, especially in the form of housing block grants from HUD, in the upcoming budget process. That letter can be read here.
Last month, Cooper worked with Senator Thom Tillis and Representatives David Price and David Rouzer on compiling an unmet needs request to Congress. This week, state officials learned that of the more than $900 million requested, North Carolina will receive just $6.1 million, less than 1% of the resources needed to help communities and families fix homes, repair businesses and recover from the historic flooding. In today’s letter, Governor Cooper reiterated the critical and immediate need for support and urged the President to visit affected communities to better understand the challenges that remain.
By the way, as the storm was bearing down last week and everyone knew it was going to be big, most Republicans, at the direction of this monster, voted to shut down the government. But then they like to do that:
North Carolina Governor, Roy Cooper, is urging President Donald Trump to end the partial federal government shutdown.
The letter, which Cooper tweeted out Wednesday afternoon states the shutdown should end so North Carolina can continue to rebuild from hurricane flood waters and prevent future damage.
Cooper also said while we continue short-term recovery help with FEMA’s help, our critical long-term work to rebuild stronger and smarter is delayed with every day that federal funds are held in Washington.
President Donald Trump hastened to Capitol Hill Wednesday trying to hold jittery congressional Republicans in line on the 19th day of the partial government shutdown. He suggested a deal for his border wall might be getting closer, but he also said the shutdown will last “whatever it takes.”
And you will certainly recall that just a week ago Trump said this:
09/13/2024 04:25 PM EDT
RANCHO PALOS VERDES, California — Former President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to withhold federal disaster response funding from California over Gov. Gavin Newsom’s position on water deliveries to farmers.
Speaking to reporters from a golf course in Rancho Palos Verdes on Friday, Trump said he would strong-arm California’s governor into agreeing to send more water from California’s lush north to farm fields in its drier south.
“Gavin Newscum [Newsom] is going to sign those papers,” Trump said, seemingly referencing a 2020 federal decision to increase water deliveries by weakening endangered species rules that Newsom sued over. “If he doesn’t sign those papers, we won’t give him money to put out all his fires, and if we don’t give him the money to put out his fires, he’s got problems.”
Newsom snapped back within minutes of Trump’s remarks, saying in an X post the former president “admitted he will block emergency disaster funds to settle political vendettas.”
“Today it’s California’s wildfires. Tomorrow it could be hurricane funding for North Carolina or flooding assistance for homeowners in Pennsylvania,” Newsom wrote, referencing two swing states where Kamala Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in polls ahead of November.
If there is anyone who threatens to withhold disaster aid for political purposes it’s Trump. He did it from the beginning of his term when he made an absolute idiot of himself over Hurricane Maria. Now he’s putting on a show in Georgia and will shortly be blaming Kamala Harris for Hurricane Helene and it appears that the media is prepared to help him by suggesting that she should have been down in North Carolina over the weekend rescuing people in a rubber dinghy or something.
Get ready. They’re going to try to make this into Harris’s Katrina.
Let’s hope the press gets a hold of itself before they can succeed. I’m not sanguine. They just covered Trump’s circus in Valdosta, Georgia as if it was a presidential visit.
At his rally over the weekend, Trump predictably claimed that Kamala Harris should be prosecuted and the crowd predictably started ecstatically chanting “lock her up!”
It is obviously unsurprising that Trump would conjure up imaginary crimes by his political opponent. In 2016, he made “Lock her up!” a signature campaign chant. In 2020, he branded Joe Biden a criminal. The pretext for Harris’s prosecution is that, as vice-president, she presided over border-enforcement policies that Trump opposes. In 2016, the pretext was Clinton’s violation of State Department email protocol. In 2020, it was disproven charges that Biden profited from his son’s business activity in Ukraine.
Obviously, none of the particulars of these allegations — in Harris’s case, Trump hasn’t even managed to manufacture a pretextual criminal allegation — matter to Trump in the slightest. His view of the law is fully relativist. Actions taken on Trump’s behalf are by inherently legal, and actions taken against him are inherently illegal.
That is why Trump continuously brands his political opponents as criminals. In addition to all three of his Democratic campaign opponents, Trump has called for criminal charges to be brought against a long list of targets, including (but not limited to) Barack Obama, John Kerry, Liz Cheney, anybody who criticizes pro-Trump judges, “lawyers, political operatives, donors, illegal voters, and corrupt election officials” involved in the 2024 election, among many others.
Just this weekend, he called for charges against Google (for allegedly showing too many negative stories about him in searches) and Nancy Pelosi (for the second time; four years ago, he called for her to be charged for tearing a copy of his speech, and this weekend, he said she should be investigated because her husband sold shares of Visa stock prior to an anti-trust investigation against the company).
It is also why Trump continuously encourages criminal behavior by his allies and defends it as lawful. Paul Manafort did “nothing” and was the victim of a “hoax.” The violent coup attempt by Trump allies on January 6, 2021, was actually a riot by overzealous police officers, and the criminals who carried it out were “hostages.” Trump frequently promises to pardon the J6 criminals, in keeping with his first-term policy of granting mass amnesty to political allies who committed crimes.
We all roll our eyes at this BS. He’s been doing it so long we hardly notice it anymore. But we shouldn’t grow inured to the threat. He
He’s obviously very, very angry about being held accountable for his crimes. There is no way that he will let it go and there’s no one to stop it if he wins. The entire Republican party is bought into his “vengeance is mine” trip and have no problem with allowing his co-conspirators to skate. This will be the new “rule of law” in a second Trump administration: “the law for thee but not for me.”
Normally, I don’t pay too much attention to the Vice Presidential debate in a presidential election campaign because they tend not to matter all that much. Certainly, everyone was excited to see Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin debate Sen. Joe Biden in 2008 because she was such a wild card and everyone tuned in to see if she would fall on her face. (She actually held up pretty well.) There have been famous VP debates in which one of the candidates got skewered by the other, as when Democratic Sen. Lloyd Benson of Texas deftly took down the callow Senator from Indiana Dan Quayle with his withering, “I knew John Kennedy, John Kennedy was a friend of mine. And you sir are no John Kennedy.” But mostly they’re forgettable. In fact, Vice Presidential candidates, even the ones who are part of the winning ticket, are often pretty much forgotten.
But this year I think it might be different. Mostly it’s because it really does appear there will only be one debate between Harris and Trump because Trump is intellectually lazy and knows that he’s incapable of actually preparing for a debate at Harris’s level. He can’t risk another catastrophic failure. So, regrettably, this Vice Presidential debate tomorrow night may be the last big event of the campaign before the election is over.
According to a recent Pew Survey, a quarter of the American people haven’t heard of either Democratic Gov. Tim Walz or GOP Sen. JD Vance so the debate will be very enlightening for them. (I somehow doubt they are the type of people who will tune in but you never know.) Of those who have heard of them, 34% of Americans view Vance favorably, while 42% view him unfavorably and 39% of Americans see Walz favorably, while 33% view him unfavorably. (Vance has the worst favorable ratings of any VP candidate in the last 20 years.) In that respect Walz goes into the debate with a pretty fair advantage.
I would guess that Vance has made a very bad impression because of his nasty, cold personality and very extreme ideology but that’s just a guess. The creepy stuff about unmarried cat ladies destroying the world was not a winning introduction to the national stage and his latest crusade against immigrants from “Haitia” has been, well, deplorable. Walz, on the other hand, comes off as a very warm, regular guy which just isn’t something that offends normal people.
Whether those perceptions will hold up in a debate remains to be seen. The two presidential debates in this election campaign so far have been among the most consequential we’ve ever seen so who knows what might happen with this one?
Apparently, Vance and Walz have both been preparing like candidates usually do, unlike Donald Trump who says he already knows everything he needs to know. Vance has been working with various members of his team including Trump confidante Jason Miller, going over Walz’s record as a congressman and Governor. Walz himself is being played by Rep. Tom Emmer, who has known Walz for years and reportedly can do a fair impression of his voice and mannerisms.
Emmer appeared on “This Week” and refused to talk about Vance simply refusing to move off his talking points about Tim Walz being “Gavin Newsom in a flannel shirt” and portraying Trump as the guy who “fixed the country then Biden and Harris broke it and he’s going to fix it again.” Maybe that’s just one big feint but I’m guessing that’s the Vance game plan — attack Walz as a San Francisco hippie, hit Biden and Harris and pump up Trump.
Walz has Pete Buttigieg playing Vance in his debate prep and his team includes some of the veterans who worked with Harris on hers (which is a good sign.) Buttigieg appeared on Tim Miller’s Bulwark podcast and didn’t give away the game plan but when Miller joked that he hoped playing Vance wouldn’t adversely affect him he said, “I’m going into that head space but hopefully I’ll be able to find my way back out of it. It’s an interesting place to be.” I think it must be a frightening place to be, personally.
Both Vance and Walz have fairly recent experience debating. The LA Times’s Paul Thornton went back and watched some of them and came away with some interesting impressions. He believes that Vance has the edge because “he comes off as fluent on policy, and he can nimbly respond to attack” and in the 2022 Senatorial debates with Congressman Tim Ryan, “he used just about every question from moderators as an opportunity to paint Ryan as petty and hypocritical.” Boy that sure sounds like Vance, doesn’t it?
But as Thornton points out, that was before Vance was known and thoroughly disliked by so many people “a drawback that only more brightly highlights Walz’s best attribute: People just like the guy.”
Vance’s nasty accusations may not play as well against “the coach” who is apparently a pretty solid debater himself, although he has downplayed his skills, seriously lowering expectations. Thornton writes about his 2018 and 2022 Gubernatorial debates:
[T]he opponents attacked in ways that Vance did in his debate with Ryan — but with Walz, nothing rattled him. And Walz did indeed get attacked, perhaps because he was the favorite in both races… He answered policy questions on climate change, mineral extraction, working with the federal government and pandemic response straightforwardly but not in much detail, something for which both Jensen and Johnson attacked Walz.
And Walz never really took the bait. Nice guys whom people like can do that, and perhaps that is Walz’s biggest advantage over the unpopular yet fully policy-briefed Vance.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Walz is being underestimated. He was a teacher for years but he’s been a politician for the past two decades and is in his second term as Governor of Minnesota. He’s a pro. His folksy demeanor may just fool the Yale educated but still very green JD Vance into thinking his rival doesn’t understand politics. I think that may be a mistake.
Will tomorrow’s debate tip the scales in this inexplicably close election? Maybe. But in the end it all comes down to the same question: do people want to go back to the negative, chaotic Trump years and spend four more of them dealing with his rage, revenge and retribution? Or are they ready to move past the drama and the stress of that poisonous era and reach for something fresh and new? We won’t find out until the votes are counted.
In PA today, Donald Trump gave one of the most dangerous speeches of the 21st century by describing his strategy for reducing crime as Kristallnacht, “one extraordinarily rough, one really rough nasty day. One rough hour. You know it’ll end immediately.”https://t.co/tR06J07hQ5… pic.twitter.com/Y0lYApPVDC
— Jim Stewartson, Counterinsurgent 🇺🇸🇺🇦💙🎈 (@jimstewartson) September 29, 2024
The crowd loved it. They can’t wait for the cops to have unfettered power. Well, until they use it on them. And it will happen. Sure, the Black and Brown people will take the brunt of it. But that kind of power tends to expand to all types.
We know their proclivity for whining. You don’t even want to think about the caterwauling when the state comes after them.
And yet most voters say they think that corrupt, orange, imbecile, con artist is the better choice to run it
If that freak wins I don’t want to hear another word about economic determinism, “deliverism” or “fundamentals.” It will have been proven to be utter nonsense.
Unreal. Trump proves once again that he's no friend of working Americans saying that he "hated to give overtime" and that instead of paying it he'd bring new staff in. pic.twitter.com/EwhOzzgRKu
In 1980, under pressure to begin construction on what would become his signature project, Donald J. Trump employed a crew of 200 undocumented Polish workers who worked in 12-hour shifts, without gloves, hard hats or masks, to demolish the Bonwit Teller building on Fifth Avenue, where the 58-story, golden-hued Trump Tower now stands.
The workers were paid as little as $4 an hour for their dangerous labor, less than half the union wage, if they got paid at all.
Their treatment led to years of litigation over Mr. Trump’s labor practices, and in 1998, despite frequent claims that he never settles lawsuits, Mr. Trump quietly reached an agreement to end a class-action suit over the Bonwit Teller demolition in which he was a defendant.
For almost 20 years, the terms of that settlement have remained a secret. But last week, the settlement documents were unsealed by Loretta A. Preska, a United States District Court judge for the Southern District, in response to a 2016 motion filed by Time Inc. and the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press. Judge Preska found that the public’s right to know of court proceedings in a class-action case was strengthened by the involvement of the “now-president of the United States.” […]
The documents show that Mr. Trump paid a total of $1.375 million to settle the case, known as Hardy v. Kaszycki, with $500,000 of it going to a union benefits fund and the rest to pay lawyers’ fees and expenses.
That’s the friend to the working man so many blue collar workers worship. How can people be so self-destructive?
Kyle Rittenhouse’s former bodyguard and spokesperson feels the 17-year-old might never have been acquitted of killing two people and seriously injuring another if the jury knew then what he knows now.
“When the world finds out everything that happened in this case and with Kyle, it’ll be shocking. It’s breathtaking,” Dave Hancock said in an interview for a documentary that sheds new light on what happened that fateful night in August 2020, on the streets of Kenosha, Wisconsin.
Hancock said that he learned during the trial that Rittenhouse had allegedly used racial slurs in messages sent to his friends and appeared to be looking for an opportunity to use a weapon.
“There was a history of things he was doing prior to Kenosha, specifically patrolling the street for months with guns and borrowing people’s security uniforms, doing whatever he could to try to get into some kind of a gunfight,” Hancock claimed. “I believed things he told me that I now understand to be one of his many lies. And that hurts.
I guess we knew that he was desperate to get into the action but it’s a shame that all the evidence wasn’t available at the trial. His sophomoric but deadly vigilante action being rewarded as it was sent a very dangerous message to others in America who may feel free to do the same thing.
If you’ve lost track of Kyle he’s making money on the wingnut welfare circuit. Kill somebody and get a career. It’s the GOP way.
A rightwing organization is attacking efforts to educate judges about the climate crisis. The group appears to be connected to Leonard Leo, the architect of the rightwing takeover of the American judiciary who helped select Trump’s supreme court nominees, the Guardian has learned.
The WashingtonDC-based non-profit Environmental Law Institute (Eli)’s Climate Judiciary Project holds seminars for lawyers and judges about the climate crisis. It aims to “provide neutral, objective information to the judiciary about the science of climate change as it is understood by the expert scientific community and relevant to current and future litigation”, according to Eli’s website.
The American Energy Institute (AEI), a rightwing,pro-fossil fuel thinktank, has been attacking Eli and their climate trainings in recent months. In August, the organization published a report saying Eli was “corruptly influencing the courts and destroying the rule of law to promote questionable climate science”.
Eli’s Climate Judiciary Project is “falsely portraying itself as a neutral entity teaching judges about questionable climate science”, the report says. In reality, AEI claims, the project is a partner to the more than two dozen US cities and states who are suing big oil for allegedly sowing doubt about the climate crisis despite longstanding knowledge of the climate dangers of coal, oil and gas usage.
In a PowerPoint presentation about the report found on AEI’s website, the group says the Climate Judiciary Project (CJP)is a “wholly aligned with the climate change plaintiffs and helps them corruptly influence judges behind closed doors”.
“Their true purpose is to preview the plaintiffs’ arguments in the climate cases in an ex parte setting,” the presentation says.
Both the report and the PowerPoint presentation link AEI to CRC Advisors, a public relations firm chaired by rightwing dark money impresario Leo. Given his outsize role in shaping the US judiciary – Leo helped select multiple judicial nominees for former president Donald Trump, including personally lobbying for Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment – his firm’s role in opposing climate litigation is notable.
Yes, it’s notable. The man is a one man wrecking crew.
Reading this after watching constant footage of a large portion of the southeast US under water for the past few days is infuriating. Climate change denial has become religion to these people and nothing, not even out of control fires, massive tornadoes and hurricanes, thousand year floods, now of it will change their minds.
All for oil company profits? Can yuo get any more shallow?
