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It’s worse than you think

Fred Hiatt in the Washington Post focuses on what I also consider to be the greatest threat to our democracy at the moment. It’s not just the vote suppression, as bad as that is. There is a much more nefarious plot unfolding that really could set us on a path to real autocracy:

President Donald Trump’s effort to steal the 2020 presidential election fell short. Now Republicans across the country are promoting changes to laws and personnel that could allow him — or someone like him — to succeed in 2024.

I’m not referring to the hundreds of GOP proposals in statehouses across the country that will make it harder for many people, in particular Black Democrats, to vote. Those measures are egregious and offensive. They are the strategy of a party that has given up on winning by putting forward more appealing policies and candidates and so hopes to win by keeping as many of its opponents away from the ballot box as possible.

What I’m talking about is in some ways even more insidious: an insurance policy to potentially steal the election if the vote-suppression strategy fails.

Recall Trump’s post-election campaign last fall. Having lost decisively, he thought he could pressure local and state officials to nullify the results.

He implored the Republican majority in the Pennsylvania legislature to defy their people’s will and appoint a slate of electors who would vote for him in Washington.

He urged the Georgia secretary of state to claim that Joe Biden’s victory there was fraudulent.

He pressured the Michigan Board of State Canvassers not to certify Biden’s clear victory in their state.

He failed because enough local officials had more integrity and courage than a majority of the Republican caucus in the U.S. House has mustered. The leaders of the Pennsylvania legislature said they didn’t have the authority to do what Trump was demanding. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger simply refused to go along. One of two Republicans on the Michigan board caved to the pressure, but the other, Aaron Van Langevelde, listened to his conscience, and his vote alongside the board’s two Democrats was enough to turn aside Trump’s attempted theft.

All of this was inspiring to many of us. To the anti-democracy forces ascendant in the Republican Party, it provided a challenge and a road map.

Michigan Republicans chose not to nominate Van Langevelde to another term. Raffensperger will face a primary challenge from an amplifier of Trump’s lies about election fraud, Rep. Jody Hice (R-Ga.), who already has Trump’s endorsement.

“At the end of the day, there were good people on both sides of the aisle who were determined to protect people’s right to vote,” Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, said in a meeting with Post reporters and editors this month. “If those people change in 2022, then you have a scenario in 2024 where the good people who protected their states in 2020 aren’t there any more.”

Nor are the anti-democracy forces focused only on top officials. Another Democratic secretary of state, Arizona’s Katie Hobbs, told us that “people around the state are very worried that they’re going to come infiltrate poll workers in the next election.” The law requires a balance of Republicans and Democrats as poll workers — but, Hobbs noted, “it’s very easy to change your affiliation from R to D.”

As they target the people and positions that stood in their way last time, they also are attempting to change the rules, so a pro-Trump legislature could more easily override the will of the people — and the objections of any honest secretary of state who stood in the way.

“In 2021, state legislatures across the country — through at least 148 bills filed in 36 states — are moving to muscle their way into election administration, as they attempt to dislodge or unsettle the executive branch and/or local election officials who, traditionally, have run our voting systems.”

That is the conclusion of a recent report, “A Democracy Crisis in the Making,” by two nonpartisan organizations, States United Democracy Center and Protect Democracy, and a nonprofit law firm in Wisconsin, Law Forward.

“Had these bills been in place in 2020,” the report found, “they would have significantly added to the turmoil that surrounded the election, and they would have raised the alarming prospect that the outcome of the presidential election could have been decided contrary to how the people voted.”

One such measure was included in Georgia’s recent electoral “reform.” While many of us paid attention to the mean-spirited ban on giving water to people waiting in line — and understandably so — the intrusion of the legislature into the counting process could have far more nefarious consequences.

This is why it matters so much that Trump continues to lie about 2020, and that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) and most of his party have abjectly surrendered to the lie. It’s not just about history. The lie is being used to give cover for actions that in 2024 could turn the big lie into the big steal.

This is the long game. They are normalizing the idea in GOP circles that its perfectly democratic for partisan state legislators to overturn the electoral college results and for the majority in the US Congress to refuse to certify an election they don’t like. There is no reason to believe the conservative Supreme Court won’t be won over to this absurd notion either.

There is only one party that is seeking to do this. I think you know who they are and why. It’s profoundly unnerving but it’s exactly the way modern democracies die — it’s a death by a thousand cuts, all superficially legal and incremental until one day you wake up and it’s passed to the great beyond. Don’t think it can’t happen to us.

Who’s the thief again?

I didn’t think I would ever positively share a Mona Charon column but never say never. This one is a keeper — it lays out another unspoken important aspect of the GOP’s “stop the steal” strategy: the fact that someone did try to steal the election — Donald Trump.

The great cause that Republicans are uniting around is “election integrity.” That’s rich. The reality is that somebody did attempt to steal the 2020 election—Donald Trump. During the days and weeks following his loss, he brayed endlessly that the outcome was fraudulent, laying the groundwork for an attempt to overturn the voters’ will.

From the White House, he made multiple calls to local election officials demanding that they find votes for him. He dialed up members of local canvassing boards, encouraging them to decertify results.

At a time when Trump’s toadies were calling for legislatures to ignore the popular vote and submit alternate slates of electoral college votes, he engaged in flagrant election interference by inviting seven Michigan state legislators, including the leaders of the house and senate, to the White House on November 20. What did they discuss? You can surmise from their statement issued after the meeting: “We have not yet been made aware of any information that would change the outcome of the election in Michigan and, as legislative leaders, we will follow the law and follow the normal process regarding Michigan’s electors . . .”

Trump phoned a Georgia elections investigator who was conducting a signature audit in Cobb County, and asked her to find the “dishonesty.” If she did, he promised, “you’ll be praised. . . You have the most important job in the country right now.”

The then-president phoned Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger 18 times. When he finally got through, he wove a tangled theory of voting irregularities that crescendoed to a naked plea to falsify Georgia’s vote: “So what are we going to do here, folks? I only need 11,000 votes. Fellas, I need 11,000 votes.”

Trump entertained ideas such as declaring martial law, seizing the nation’s voting machines, and letting the military “rerun” the election. He turned loose his Kraken-conspiracy nuts and his pillow man to spread lies about Dominion Voting Systems, Black-run cities like Philadelphia, and Chinese bamboo ballots.

The Trump campaign and its allies filed more than 60 lawsuits challenging election procedures and lost all but one. Pennsylvania was found to have erred in extending the period to fix errors on mail-in ballots. The case was a matter of three days and a small number of votes that would not have changed Pennsylvania’s outcome.

And then came the ultimate attack on election integrity—the violent attack on the Capitol and on members of Congress and the vice president as they were fulfilling their constitutional duties.

Leaving no doubt about his intentions for the riot, Trump told a crowd in February that the only thing that prevented the violent mob from successfully hijacking the official tally of the Electoral College votes was the “cowardice” of Mike Pence.

Today, we stand on the precipice of the House Republican conference ratifying this attempt to subvert American democracy. They are poised to punish Liz Cheney for saying this simple truth: “The 2020 presidential election was not stolen. Anyone who claims it was is spreading THE BIG LIE, turning their back on the rule of law, and poisoning our democratic system.” In her place, they will elevate Iago in heels, Elise Stefanik, whose claim to leadership consists entirely of her operatic Trump followership.

Let’s be clear: The substitution of Stefanik for Cheney is a tocsin, signaling that the Republican party will no longer be bound by law or custom. In 2020, many Republican office holders, including the otherwise invertebrate Pence, held the line. They did not submit false slates of electors. They did not decertify votes. They did not “find” phantom fraud. But the party has been schooled since then. It has learned that the base—which is deluded by the likes of Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, and Mark Levin—believes the lies and demands that Republicans fight. As my colleague Amanda Carpenter put it, the 2024 mantra is going to be “Steal It Back.”

If Cheney must be axed because she will not lie, then what will happen if Republicans take control of Congress in 2022 and are called upon to certify the Electoral College in 2024? How many Raffenspergers will there be? How many will insist, as Pence did, that they must do what the Constitution demands? How many will preserve any semblance of the rule of law and the primacy of truth?

I’m going to guess none. Any who would will have been purged by that time, on both the state and the national level.

I am more am more convinced that this is going to happen and that we are going to have to rely on the courts to defend democracy. I have no idea if they will. When it came down to it in 2000, the Supreme Court went with the party.

Poor Pence

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Republican vice presidential candidate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence pause during an event at the Pastors Leadership Conference at New Spirit Revival Center, Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2016, in Cleveland, Ohio. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)

Today Pence is slated to make his first big post Trump administration speech in South Carolina, presumably to begin his presidential campaign (except without saying it because Daddy might get mad.)

This must have made him feel great this morning:

Former President Trump on Thursday said he would consider tapping Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as his running mate should he make a comeback presidential bid in 2024. 

“Well, he’s a friend of mine. I endorsed Ron. And after I endorsed him, he took off like a rocket ship,” Trump said Thursday morning on Fox Business, referencing DeSantis’s 2018 race. “He’s done a great job as governor.”

“A lot of people like that — I’m just saying what I read and what you read, they love that ticket,” Trump added. “But certainly, Ron would be considered. He’s a great guy.”

Trump has not yet definitively said if he will run for president again, keeping a slew of possible GOP presidential hopefuls wary of crossing the party’s most popular figure. He kept up the anticipation Thursday by saying he’s “100 percent” considering mounting a bid.

DeSantis’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment regarding Trump’s remarks. However, the Florida governor has been touted by Republicans as a potential presidential candidate in 2024 should Trump not run.

DeSantis has garnered plaudits from across the GOP over his refusal to impose strict restrictions on schools and businesses during the coronavirus pandemic. He also won new fans after her vociferously rebuked a faulty “60 Minutes” report that included allegations of favoritism by the governor’s office. 

A survey run by Tony Fabrizio, who did polling work for Trump’s 2020 campaign, showed last month that DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence are the two front-runners in a list of potential 2024 Republican candidates that does not include Trump.

Should DeSantis run, he’d also likely have a massive leg up in a general election in Florida, a key swing state that has tilted toward Republicans in recent cycles.

Beyond DeSantis’s 2024 prospects, Trump’s comments Thursday also mark the latest indication that he would not tap Pence as his No. 2 should he run in three years.

Trump has repeatedly lambasted Pence for what he sees as insufficient efforts to overturn the results of the November presidential election when he oversaw Congress’s certification of the Electoral College tally.

Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution, giving States a chance to certify a corrected set of facts, not the fraudulent or inaccurate ones which they were asked to previously certify. USA demands the truth!” Trump tweeted from his now-suspended account during the Capitol insurrection on Jan. 6.

Trump isn’t mentioning Pence as a possible running mate. There’s no chance he will be. And I very much doubt there’s a chance he’ll be anything else either. Trump wouldn’t endorse him and there just isn’t any possible constituency for the doormat who couldn’t successfully usurp the constitution.

And DeSantis had better watch his step if he has any ambitions to be president either. It’s possible Trump may not run (I think he will) but he’s got to be the one to anoint the nominee. They’d better not get ahead of Dear Leader.

Fox News watchers guarding the henhouse

The “don’t give a damn how it looks” radicalism in the GOP these days is overwhelming. Check out what they’re doing in Arizona:

When a Republican-led coalition gathers to “audit” Maricopa County, Arizona’s 2020 election results on Thursday, the motley crew will include a former lawmaker who previously lost a police job for lying about a stolen iPad and a technology firm helmed by a proponent of election conspiracy theories.

Joe Biden won the presidential election in Arizona, including in hotly contested Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix. Although multiple bipartisan reviews have upheld those results, and Donald Trump has long since exited the White House, a new effort to recount all of Maricopa County’s 2.1 million votes is kicking off this week. The scheme is led by actual elected officials with power, including the leaders of Arizona’s state Senate, which has tapped a Florida-based cybersecurity firm to oversee the audit.

But from kooky fundraisers to a conspiracy-minded tech CEO to an auditor who lost the very 2020 election he’s auditing, the recount has eyeballs rolling.

On Monday, former Arizona state representative Anthony Kern tweeted that he would be involved in the recount. “#Electionintegrity,” he wrote in his announcement. Arizona’s House Democrats had a less sunny response: quote-tweeting Kern with a picture of him standing in a crowd of Trump fans at a Jan. 6 rally that preceded the attack on the U.S. Capitol. “One of Arizona’s election auditors reporting for duty,” the House Democrats tweeted. “#ShamAudit.”

Kern, who did not return The Daily Beast’s request for comment, maintains that he did not enter the Capitol or participate in the riot, and has not been charged with a crime related to the day’s events. Still, the specifics of his actions are the subject of a legal spat in Arizona. On the day of the riot, he was serving his final days as a state representative, having lost re-election the same day as Trump. He and another Arizona representative who attended the pre-riot rally have declined public records requests for their messages related to the event, with their lawyer stating that “the threat of criminal prosecution gives rise to certain Constitutional rights that may overcome the duty to disclose otherwise public documents under Arizona’s public records law.”

The two Republicans have also filed a defamation lawsuit against an Arizona lawmaker who signed a letter asking the FBI to investigate their Jan. 6 activities.

This isn’t Kern’s first time facing legal scrutiny. Prior to becoming a lawmaker, he worked as a code enforcement officer for the El Mirage Police Department. In 2014, he was fired for misleading his supervisor about a computer tablet that went missing, the Phoenix New Times revealed in 2019. As part of his termination, he was placed on the state’s Brady list, a compendium of law enforcement officers with known credibility issues. (In fact, as the New Times noted, even Kerr’s claims to being law enforcement were dubious: He was a civilian officer throughout his employment, and though he represented himself as holding a “law enforcement” certification in financial disclosures in 2014, 2015, and 2016, he did not receive peace officer certification until 2017.)

In 2019, while serving in the Arizona House, Kern helped push a bill that would make it easier for people like himself to remove their names from the state Brady list. Colleagues told the New Times they had not been aware that Kern was on the list. The bill did not pass, but a similar one is currently being debated.

Arizona Democrats called Kerr’s participation in Thursday’s audit inappropriate. Rep. Athena Salman, a Democratic member of the state House’s Government and Elections Committee, noted that Kern was also in D.C. in January in his capacity as a Trump elector. (Kern promoted a bogus theory that “dual electors” could throw the election to Trump.)This is one of the guys that they bring in and say, “That’s who we need looking at these ballots and determining whether or not these are quality votes”?

[…]

But Kern is far from the only controversial figure involved in the audit. The recount is being led by a business called Cyber Ninjas, a Florida-based cybersecurity company led by Doug Logan.

Following Trump’s defeat in November, Logan became a prominent Twitter voice casting doubt on the election results via multiple debunked conspiracy theories. An Arizona Republic report found that Logan frequently retweeted Sidney Powell, the former Trump campaign lawyer whose theories about election fraud were so outlandish that, when Powell was sued for defamation, she argued in court that no reasonable person could have taken her seriously.

Logan’s Twitter involvement with pro-Trump fringes went even further. Archived tweets from Logan’s now-deleted account reveal that he frequently tweeted at Ron Watkins, the former administrator of the site 8kun. Watkins is a vocal proponent of election fraud claims and in a recent documentary appeared to accidentally admit that he was “Q,” the author of the lurid QAnon conspiracy theory. (Watkins now denies that he is Q.)

“I’d love to chat if you have a chance,” Logan tweeted at Watkins on Nov. 12. The following day, he tweeted at Watkins after tweeting about hacking voting machines. “If you have any ‘original source’ documents you’re basing your info off of, I’d love it if you shared the links ;-),” Logan tweeted. Later that day, he tweeted at Watkins with “source material” on voting machines.

In December, in a reply to a now-deleted thread from Powell and her colleague Lin Wood, Logan tagged Watkins again. “Haven’t you been working on this?” Logan asked him.

Elsewhere, Logan quote-tweeted Wood to promote a hoax about voting machines supposedly being seized in Germany, which would somehow prove Trump to have won the election.

[…]

Of course, the audit’s very existence is a victory for Arizona Senate Republicans, who spent months embroiled in court cases and logistical battles over how such a recount would take place.

Although the Republican-led Maricopa County Board of Supervisors did turn over voting data that upheld Biden’s victory in a previous review, the group argued against turning over the county’s 2.1 million physical ballots, citing rules on voter privacy. Then, in February, the Arizona Senate won a court ruling enabling them to examine the ballots by hand.

Their next challenge was figuring out how to conduct the audit. Initially, Senate President Karen Fann tapped the “Allied Security Operations Group” to head up the recount, but backtracked after critics noted that that group was pro-Trump and had made false claims about voter fraud in Michigan. After the partnership crumbled, a colorful assortment of Trump supporters, including MyPillow founder Mike Lindell and supposed Satanism expert Lyle Rapacki, stepped in to promote the audit, The Daily Beast previously reported.

Soon thereafter, a group called “Voices and Votes” took up the cause of fundraising for the audit. That group was led by One America News host Christina Bobb, who had promoted voter fraud conspiracy theories, TPM reported. Wood told the outlet that his foundation had chipped in $50,000 to the cause.

Ultimately the audit’s outcome is irrelevant. Multiple bipartisan reviews have upheld the state’s election results and Biden’s Arizona victory has already been certified in the state, in a process that involved the state’s governor, secretary of state, and state Supreme Court chief justice—all of them Republicans. Also: Biden is president and not going anywhere.

But what remains is a worrying precedent, Salman said.

“They can’t de-certify the election results for 2020,” she said. “I wholeheartedly believe that they’re testing the boundaries to see whatever they can get away with, so that they can do this whole performance again, and manufacture the results that they want coming into the 2022 election cycle.”

Of course. And they also want to fluff their Dear Leader Donald Trump by “validating” his Bie Lie. Maybe he’ll invited them to Mar-a-lago for selfie and a diet coke.

The Autopsy Report

J.V. Last at the Bulwark observes that although the Republicans didn’t do the traditional autopsy after their loss this time (because they cannot acknowledge that it happened) but it does not mean there isn’t one. The report is a doozy:

The Autopsy Is Happening Right Now

In the days after Democrats unseated an incumbent president and won unified control of Congress, the victorious party went though a round of self-analysis and recriminations.

The Republicans, who managed a trifecta of losing that hadn’t been accomplished since Herbert Hoover, doubled down. Then they backed up their bets, split 4s, and doubled down again.

People were confused as to why the losing party didn’t conduct an autopsy to try to figure out what went wrong.

Except that they did. It wasn’t a traditional autopsy in the sense that there was no formal committee and the project wasn’t centered around getting more votes in future elections. But it’s clear that Republicans are in the midst of a crowd-sourced attempt to figure out how to win the presidency in 2024.

There are three ways to capture the presidency:

(1) Win a lot more votes than the opposing candidate.

(2) Get fewer votes, but win pluralities in enough states to get 270 certified and counted Electoral Votes.

(3) Get fewer votes and fewer Electoral Votes, but prevent the official counting and certification of the Electoral Votes—and then win a majority of state delegations when the contest is shifted to Congress.

You can win the presidency even while getting blown out in both the popular vote and the Electoral College, provided your party:

1)Controls the House and Senate.

2)Constitutes a congressional majority in 26 states.

3)Has sufficient raw political will.

Five years ago this scenario would have sounded like a nightmare designed to scare children; democracy’s version of the Baba Yaga.

Today it’s just an alternative path to power.

After all, it’s right there in the rules. How could anyone possibly object?

And if you ask Conservatism Inc. they’ll tell you how beside-the-point “democracy” is, anyhow.

The Republican Game Plan

When Republicans conducted their autopsy, they skipped “How to Win Option 1” and went straight to Options 2 and 3—leapfrogging the question of how to get more votes and focusing on how to use institutional leverage to take power even while losing popular majorities.

Option 2—the path of least resistance—is for Republicans to change voting rules at the state level in the hopes that they can drive down the number of Democratic votes cast and win the Electoral College despite being a persistent minority. A lot has been written about these various initiatives, some of which are more grotesque than others.

But the real cutting edge work being done as a result of the GOP autopsy concerns Option 3: Figuring out how a Republican can win the presidency even while losing the popular vote and the Electoral College.

Just go by the numbers: It is likely Republicans will have majorities in the congressional delegations of at least 26 states for the foreseeable future. They have a >50 percent chance of winning the House in 2022 and a pretty good shot at flipping the Senate.

So the first two preconditions for winning the presidency while losing the election are very much on the table.

Which leaves just one project: Mustering the political will to move past both the popular vote and the Electoral College.

In 2020, many elected Republicans lacked the will to use the means that would have been necessary to stop the certification and counting of Electoral Votes:

— In Michigan, the election results were certified only because a single Republican member of the state canvassing board, Aaron Van Langevelde, broke party ranks and voted to certify them.

— In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger refused direct requests from the president of the United States to change the official tally of the state’s votes.

— In Pennsylvania, enough Republicans in the state legislature declined the president’s entreaty to create an alternate slate of electors.

— Once the Electoral Votes were sent to Washington, more than half of the Republican members of Congress objected to the counting of the Electoral Votes—but it wasn’t enough to stop the process.

So the key parts of the Republican autopsy have been (1) building the political will to use raw power next time and (2) removing the Republican officials who were not willing to comply last time.

That’s why Republican state parties have censured nearly every Republican who did not participate in Trump’s attempted coup.

That’s why Brad Raffensperger is the target of a primary challenge in Georgia.

That’s why Michigan Republicans replaced Aaron Van Langevelde with a more reliable partisan on the state canvassing board.

That’s why Nevada Republicans are attacking Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, the only Republican to have won state-wide office in 2018. (Even though she is a Republican, Cegavske refused to go along with the attempt to overturn Nevada’s result.)

That’s why Republicans in Arizona have introduced HB 2720. Here’s the relevant section of the bill:

The Legislature retains its legislative authority regarding the office of presidential elector and by majority vote at any time before the presidential inauguration may revoke the Secretary of State’s issuance or certification of a presidential elector’s certificate of election.

Ladies and gentlemen: Behold the fruit of the Republican autopsy.

Meanwhile, Conservatism Inc. is doing its part to devalue and delegitimize democracy, seeding the ground for moving past both the popular vote and the Electoral College.

The Big Lie is actually the biggest insight to come from the Republican autopsy. Republicans and their enablers discovered that if they make false, evidence-free claims often and loudly enough, then the vast majority of their voters will believe them.

And then, once Republican voters were onboard, they found that the rest of the party elites would either join them or stay silent. Only a handful of Republicans dared to object. And those figures are in the process of being either defeated or coopted.

By insisting that Trump was the real winner of 2020, Republicans have created a trifecta of preconditions within their base going into 2024:

— There is a pent-up demand for retribution.

— These voters will not believe that election results unfavorable to them are legitimate.

— These voters will be primed ahead of time to demand that elected Republicans satisfy their desired outcome, by any means necessary.

Which is to say: Republicans are already well on their way to marshaling the political will to do whatever the law even theoretically might allow in pursuit of power.

And even though the success of such a gambit is a longshot given all of the various failure points, since political power is derived from their voters, many Republicans politicians will be incentivized to embrace the challenge anyway, since they will gain power within the party from the voters who have been primed to demand such a fight

The difference between the 2020 and the 2024 elections will be the difference between a reactive Republican party focused on trying to flip the Electoral College and a proactive Republican party prepared to move past the Electoral College to the next pathway to victory.

Those are the lessons of the 2020 Republican autopsy. Ignore them at your peril.

This is how authoritarianism starts. A society goes from the rule of law, to rule by law—where the minority gets just enough power to change the laws so that they can amass more power.

And here is a serious question: If Republicans managed enough votes to sustain an objection to counting Electoral Votes, what would our recourse be? Crossing our fingers and hoping that the Supreme Court steps in?

What we are seeing—in broad daylight—is another proof of the idea that democracy runs on the honor system. If you have two parties and one of them is openly attempting to subvert democracy . . . well, good luck.

The time to fight against authoritarianism isn’t December 2024. It’s now.

He is 100% right about this plan. It’s exactly what they are trying to do and I think they are radicalized enough to go through with it.

You might have said before January 6th that it was absurd to think Trump would have had the nerve to contest the election as far as he did or that his rabid followers would storm the Capitol and stage an insurrection, with him egging them on. But it happened. And over the next four years we are going to see a concerted effort to mainstream the ideas that Last lays out. If necessary they will execute that plan, have no doubt. They are not a normal party anymore.

Eagerly down the slippery slope

Your logic was impeccable, captain. We are in grave danger.

The GOP ignored the post-2012 autopsy it commissioned. And the party may not have performed a formal, post-election autopsy on its failed 2020 presidential efforts. But the executive editor of The Bulwark thinks an informal one has emerged nonetheless. Jonathan V. Last writes that Republicans now see three ways forward:

(1) Win a lot more votes than the opposing candidate.

(2) Get fewer votes, but win pluralities in enough states to get 270 certified and counted Electoral Votes.

(3) Get fewer votes and fewer Electoral Votes, but prevent the official counting and certification of the Electoral Votes—and then win a majority of state delegations when the contest is shifted to Congress.

Republicans have decided winning democratically is either too hard, too wussy, or involves the risk of losing. And they cannot have that.

Instead, the GOP figures if it controls the House and Senate, controls a majority of state legislatures, and has enough raw political will, it can “win the presidency even while getting blown out in both the popular vote and the Electoral College.” It’s all there buried in the rules. What’s consent of the governed got to do with it? asks Conservatism Inc.

The real cutting edge of Republicanism is Option 3, Last explains. The GOP has a good shot at winning back the House in 2022 and maintaining control of 26 state legislatures. What they need (and what Trump’s state-level allies lacked in 2020) is the raw political will to circumvent the will of voters regardless of how the “world’s oldest democracy” looks to the rest of the world.

First they came for the truth….

The GOP has already targeted for elimination state Republicans who defied Trump’s effort to steal the 2020 election for himself. The Big Lie can take care of the rest:

The Big Lie is actually the biggest insight to come from the Republican autopsy. Republicans and their enablers discovered that if they make false, evidence-free claims often and loudly enough, then the vast majority of their voters will believe them.

And then, once Republican voters were onboard, they found that the rest of the party elites would either join them or stay silent. Only a handful of Republicans dared to object. And those figures are in the process of being either defeated or coopted.

By insisting that Trump was the real winner of 2020, Republicans have created a trifecta of preconditions within their base going into 2024:

  1. There is a pent-up demand for retribution.
  2. These voters will not believe that election results unfavorable to them are legitimate.
  3. These voters will be primed ahead of time to demand that elected Republicans satisfy their desired outcome, by any means necessary.

Which is to say: Republicans are already well on their way to marshaling the political will to do whatever the law even theoretically might allow in pursuit of power.

The Republican Party for years has been on a trajectory toward rejecting democracy and whatever the law theoretically might allow. REDMAP might have been cunning but was not illegal. Rigging the census as the Trump administration attempted was ruled illegal (or at least out of order). Conservatives’s extralegal means of securing a presidential win were on public display during the Jan. 6 insurrection. Republican officials even now are trying to disappear that down the memory hole. The assault on the U.S Capitol resulted in multiple deaths. Can you say slippery slope?

Analyst Zerlina Maxwell noted in late January that Republicans are “not engaged in this project of democracy that the rest of us are participating in, because they don’t actually want voters to make decisions and elect people.”

Jonathan Last concurs:

This is how authoritarianism starts. A society goes from the rule of law, to rule by law—where the minority gets just enough power to change the laws so that they can amass more power.

************************

While the Roberts Court will never explicitly endorse a white man’s government in the way the Redemption Court did, in pursuit of other cherished ideological goals it will be asked to pave the road for a white man’s government by another name. – Adam Serwer, The Atlantic, September 4, 2018

Unpremeditated insurrection?

We keep hearing that January 6th was just some tourists in DC for a big speech taking a stroll through the Capitol. They certainly didn’t hurt anyone or cause any damage, amirite? And none of them had planned to storm the capitol, it just happened spontaneously:

Not sure how I didn’t see this before, but here’s a map from TheDonald on 12/28 talking about storming the Capitol on January 6th.

In the comments, people are talking about sabotaging the tunnels so lawmakers can’t escape when they overwhelm their estimate of 3500 guards.

Originally tweeted by Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) on April 13, 2021.

And, by the way:

Prosecutors on Monday revealed what they said was a suspected effort by Oath Keepers to stash weapons in Virginia ahead of the Jan. 6 attack on Congress. 

The so-called “Quick Reaction Force” — a spoken-of group of armed Oath Keepers waiting for their command to join the fight — has been mentioned before by prosecutors in the cases of several Oath Keepers charged with conspiring to disrupt the certification of Electoral College votes on Jan. 6. 

Defense attorneys have argued that there is little evidence the QRF existed, beyond text message chatter between the Oath Keeper defendants ahead of Jan. 6. 

But Monday’s filing from the government, advocating for the continued detention of Oath Keeper Kenneth Harrelson (circled in red, above), argued explicitly that “the evidence suggests that Defendant Harrelson was both aware of the presence of an armed Quick Reaction Force and likely contributed weapons to it.” 

Prosecutors referred first to a Dec. 30 message between co-defendants Thomas Caldwell and Jessica Watkins, in which Caldwell referred to someone that prosecutors call “Person Three” and allegedly said, “As we speak he is trying to book a room at Comfort Inn Ballston/Arlington because of its close-in location and easy access to downtown because he feels 1) he’s too broken down to be on the ground all day and 2) he is committed to being the quick reaction force anf [sic] bringing the tools if something goes to hell.” 

“That way the boys don’t have to try and schlep weps on the bus. He’ll bring them in his truck the day before,” Caldwell allegedly added, apparently referring to weapons.

Prosecutors say Person Three stayed at the Comfort Inn in Ballston, Virginia — where gun laws are more lax than in D.C. — and that co-defendant Kelly Meggs paid for two other rooms at the same hotel in Person Three’s name. 

On Jan. 5, Harrelson allegedly asked in a group chat, “We get that QRF hotel address yet?” to which Meggs responded “Dm,” — a reference to using a direct message, rather than discussing the matter with the entire group. 

Three hours later, according to prosecutors, Harrelson arrived “in the area” of the Comfort Inn Ballston, where he allegedly remained for roughly an hour before returning to Washington, D.C.

“It is reasonable to believe that during this hour, Defendant Harrelson was dropping his weapons with Person Three and the QRF,” the government alleged. 

The day after the attack, on Jan. 7, Harrelson again messaged the group chat, “So we’re just leaving DC and I would like to know where my shits at since it seems everyone’s gone already.”

Another member of the chat responded, “Did you leave it at Comfort Inn in that room?” 

About twenty minutes later, Harrelson was allegedly at that hotel. Prosecutors shared a surveillance camera still which they said showed him “rolling what appears to be at least one rifle case down a hallway and towards the elevator.” 

More:

Just a bunch of patriots peacefully protesting.

“McConnell is a dumb son-of-a-bitch”

He’s baaaack:

Politico’s report on the speech:

Former President Donald Trump ripped into Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell before a Republican National Committee donor retreat Saturday evening, deriding him as a “dumb son of a bitch.”

Trump veered off his prepared text during a roughly 50-minute speech before several hundred well-heeled GOPdonors at his Mar-a-Lago resort in South Florida, saying that he was “disappointed” in former Vice President Mike Pence, calling last year’s presidential election election a “fraud” and mocking Dr. Anthony Fauci.

The former president spent several minutes tearing into McConnell, saying that he didn’t do enough to defend him during the February impeachment trial. At one point, three people familiar with the remarks said, Trump called the Senate GOP leader a “dumb son of a bitch.”

Trump also went after McConnell’s wife, former Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, for resigning her cabinet post after the Jan. 6 insurrection.

A spokesperson for McConnell, the Kentucky Republican who was just reelected to a seventh six-year term last year, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The latest verbal broadside against McConnell, the most powerful Republican still in elected office, comes as Trump reemerges as a dominant force in GOP politics. The former president has, in recent days, sought to rev up his small-dollar fundraising apparatus, and he is issuing a steady stream of endorsements for the 2022 midterm elections, in addition to battles over state party chairmanships.

Though many of Trump’s 2022 endorsements align with McConnell’s preferences, including backing a number of incumbent GOP senators for reelection, he has occasionally gotten crosswise with the Senate leader. Trump has pledged to oppose GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski in next year’s Alaska elections after Murkowski voted for his conviction in the Senate trial, though McConnell and his top allies say they will support Murkowski’s reelection.

It isn’t the first time Trump has gone after McConnell since leaving office. In February, Trump released an extensive statement bashing McConnell for being “a dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack.” The statement came just days after McConnell took to the Senate floor to flay Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection.

Several attendees said there was little response to Trump’s insult.

Much of Trump’s Saturday night speech was aimed at relitigating the election results, on which the former president has remained fixated. At one point he said he remained disappointed with Pence for not doing more to stop the certification of the election, which he called “rigged.”

Trump’s ongoing criticism of Pence has created a rift in their relationship. While several other potential 2024 Republican hopefuls made the trek to South Florida for the event, Pence did not.

The former president also savaged Fauci, saying that he gave him bad advice. He poked fun of Fauci for botching a first pitch at last year’s opening day game for the Washington Nationals.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who spoke before Trump, also went after Fauci, sources said.

The three-day event drew a number of potential 2024 GOP contenders, including DeSantis, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Also present were several 2022 midterm election candidates, including Jane Timken and Bernie Moreno, both of whom are seeking Ohio’s open Senate seat.

The confab was held mainly at the Four Seasons Resort in Palm Beach, though for the Saturday evening dinner attendees made the short jaunt north up A1A to Mar-a-Lago.

McConnell’s wingman John Thune was appropriately insulted on his friend’s behalf:

“Tone and style,” yeah.

The tone and style of a sociopath.

Incitement and delay

I think Trump really thought his thugs could force the congress to hand him the election. In his experience threats work. And if they did manage to hurt Pence or members of congress, he would have said that this demonstrated the seriousness of their purpose.

The AP has a new timeline of events from the Pentagon:

From a secure room in the Capitol on Jan. 6, as rioters pummeled police and vandalized the building, Vice President Mike Pence tried to assert control. In an urgent phone call to the acting defense secretary, he issued a startling demand.

“Clear the Capitol,” Pence said.

Elsewhere in the building, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi were making a similarly dire appeal to military leaders, asking the Army to deploy the National Guard.

“We need help,” Schumer, D-N.Y., said in desperation, more than an hour after the Senate chamber had been breached.

At the Pentagon, officials were discussing media reports that the mayhem was not confined to Washington and that other state capitals were facing similar violence in what had the makings of a national insurrection.

“We must establish order,” said Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in a call with Pentagon leaders.

But order would not be restored for hours.

These new details about the deadly riot are contained in a previously undisclosed document prepared by the Pentagon for internal use that was obtained by The Associated Press and vetted by current and former government officials.

The timeline adds another layer of understanding about the state of fear and panic while the insurrection played out, and lays bare the inaction by then-President Donald Trump and how that void contributed to a slowed response by the military and law enforcement. It shows that the intelligence missteps, tactical errors and bureaucratic delays were eclipsed by the government’s failure to comprehend the scale and intensity of a violent uprising by its own citizens.

With Trump not engaged, it fell to Pentagon officials, a handful of senior White House aides, the leaders of Congress and the vice president holed up in a secure bunker to manage the chaos.

While the timeline helps to crystalize the frantic character of the crisis, the document, along with hours of sworn testimony, provides only an incomplete picture about how the insurrection could have advanced with such swift and lethal force, interrupting the congressional certification of Joe Biden as president and delaying the peaceful transfer of power, the hallmark of American democracy.

Lawmakers, protected to this day by National Guard troops, will hear from the inspector general of the Capitol Police this coming week.

“Any minute that we lost, I need to know why,” Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., chair of the Senate Rules and Administration Committee, which is investigating the siege, said last month.

The timeline fills in some of those gaps.

At 4:08 p.m. on Jan. 6, as the rioters roamed the Capitol and after they had menacingly called out for Pelosi, D-Calif., and yelled for Pence to be hanged, the vice president was in a secure location, phoning Christopher Miller, the acting defense secretary, and demanding answers.

There had been a highly public rift between Trump and Pence, with Trump furious that his vice president refused to halt the Electoral College certification. Interfering with that process was an act that Pence considered unconstitutional. The Constitution makes clear that the vice president’s role in this joint session of Congress is largely ceremonial.

Pence’s call to Miller lasted only a minute. Pence said the Capitol was not secure and he asked military leaders for a deadline for securing the building, according to the document.

By this point it had already been two hours since the mob overwhelmed Capitol Police unprepared for an insurrection. Rioters broke into the building, seized the Senate and paraded to the House. In their path, they left destruction and debris. Dozens of officers were wounded, some gravely.

Just three days earlier, government leaders had talked about the use of the National Guard. On the afternoon of Jan. 3, as lawmakers were sworn in for the new session of Congress, Miller and Milley gathered with Cabinet members to discuss the upcoming election certification. They also met with Trump.

In that meeting at the White House, Trump approved the activation of the D.C. National Guard and also told the acting defense secretary to take whatever action needed as events unfolded, according to the information obtained by the AP.

The next day, Jan. 4, the defense officials spoke by phone with Cabinet members, including the acting attorney general, and finalized details of the Guard deployment.

The Guard’s role was limited to traffic intersections and checkpoints around the city, based in part on strict restrictions mandated by district officials. Miller also authorized Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy to deploy, if needed, the D.C. Guard’s emergency reaction force stationed at Joint Base Andrews.

The Trump administration and the Pentagon were wary of a heavy military presence, in part because of criticism officials faced for the seemingly heavy-handed National Guard and law enforcement efforts to counter civil unrest in the aftermath of the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis.

In particular, the D.C. Guard’s use of helicopters to hover over crowds in downtown Washington during those demonstrations drew widespread criticism. That unauthorized move prompted the Pentagon to more closely control the D.C. Guard.

“There was a lot of things that happened in the spring that the department was criticized for,” Robert Salesses, who is serving as the assistant defense secretary for homeland defense and global security, said at a congressional hearing last month.

On the eve of Trump’s rally Jan. 6 near the White House, the first 255 National Guard troops arrived in the district, and Mayor Muriel Bowser confirmed in a letter to the administration that no other military support was needed.

By the morning of Jan. 6, crowds started gathering at the Ellipse before Trump’s speech. According to the Pentagon’s plans, the acting defense secretary would only be notified if the crowd swelled beyond 20,000.

Before long it was clear that the crowd was far more in control of events than the troops and law enforcement there to maintain order.

Trump, just before noon, was giving his speech and he told supporters to march to the Capitol. The crowd at the rally was at least 10,000. By 1:15 p.m., the procession was well on its way there.

As protesters reached the Capitol grounds, some immediately became violent, busting through weak police barriers in front of the building and beating up officers who stood in their way.

At 1:49 p.m., as the violence escalated, then- Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund called Maj. Gen. William Walker, commanding general of the D.C. National Guard, to request assistance.

Sund’s voice was “cracking with emotion,” Walker later told a Senate committee. Walker immediately called Army leaders to inform them of the request.

Twenty minutes later, around 2:10 p.m., the first rioters were beginning to break through the doors and windows of the Senate. They then started a march through the marbled halls in search of the lawmakers who were counting the electoral votes. Alarms inside the building announced a lockdown.

Sund frantically called Walker again and asked for at least 200 guard members “and to send more if they are available.”

But even with the advance Cabinet-level preparation, no help was immediately on the way.

Over the next 20 minutes, as senators ran to safety and the rioters broke into the chamber and rifled through their desks, Army Secretary McCarthy spoke with the mayor and Pentagon leaders about Sund’s request.

On the Pentagon’s third floor E Ring, senior Army leaders were huddled around the phone for what they described as a “panicked” call from the D.C. Guard. As the gravity of the situation became clear, McCarthy bolted from the meeting, sprinting down the hall to Miller’s office and breaking into a meeting.

As minutes ticked by, rioters breached additional entrances in the Capitol and made their way to the House. They broke glass in doors that led to the chamber and tried to gain entry as a group of lawmakers was still trapped inside.

At 2:25 p.m., McCarthy told his staff to prepare to move the emergency reaction force to the Capitol. The force could be ready to move in 20 minutes.

At 2:44 p.m., Trump supporter Ashli Babbitt was fatally shot by a Capitol Police officer as she tried to climb through a window that led to the House floor.

Shortly after 3 p.m., McCarthy provided “verbal approval” of the activation of 1,100 National Guard troops to support the D.C. police and the development of a plan for the troops’ deployment duties, locations and unit sizes.

Minutes later the Guard’s emergency reaction force left Joint Base Andrews for the D.C. Armory. There, they would prepare to head to the Capitol once Miller, the acting defense secretary, gave final approval.

Meanwhile, the Joint Staff set up a video teleconference call that stayed open until about 10 p.m. that night, allowing staff to communicate any updates quickly to military leaders.

At 3:19 p.m., Pelosi and Schumer were calling the Pentagon for help and were told the National Guard had been approved.

But military and law enforcement leaders struggled over the next 90 minutes to execute the plan as the Army and Guard called all troops in from their checkpoints, issued them new gear, laid out a new plan for their mission and briefed them on their duties.

The Guard troops had been prepared only for traffic duties. Army leaders argued that sending them into a volatile combat situation required additional instruction to keep both them and the public safe.

By 3:37 p.m., the Pentagon sent its own security forces to guard the homes of defense leaders. No troops had yet reached the Capitol.

By 3:44 p.m., the congressional leaders escalated their pleas.

“Tell POTUS to tweet everyone should leave,” Schumer implored the officials, using the acronym for the president of the United States. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., asked about calling up active duty military.

At 3:48 p.m., frustrated that the D.C. Guard hadn’t fully developed a plan to link up with police, the Army secretary dashed from the Pentagon to D.C. police headquarters to help coordinate with law enforcement.

Trump broke his silence at 4:17 p.m., tweeting to his followers to “go home and go in peace.”

By about 4:30 p.m., the military plan was finalized and Walker had approval to send the Guard to the Capitol. The reports of state capitals breached in other places turned out to be bogus.

At about 4:40 p.m. Pelosi and Schumer were again on the phone with Milley and the Pentagon leadership, asking Miller to secure the perimeter.

But the acrimony was becoming obvious.

The congressional leadership on the call “accuses the National Security apparatus of knowing that protestors planned to conduct an assault on the Capitol,” the timeline said.

The call lasts 30 minutes. Pelosi’s spokesman acknowledges there was a brief discussion of the obvious intelligence failures that led to the insurrection.

It would be another hour before the first contingent of 155 Guard members were at the Capitol. Dressed in riot gear, they began arriving at 5:20 p.m.

They started moving out the rioters, but there were few, if any, arrests. by police.

At 8 p.m. the Capitol was declared secure.

The Trump administration literally could not do anything right. We were lucky we didn’t have a nuclear war.

Never forget

They’re still with him:

THREE MONTHS AFTER A mob of supporters of former President Donald Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to prevent the certification of the 2020 presidential election that he lost – an event that resulted in five deaths and a sprawling FBI manhunt – roughly half of Republicans believe it was instead a non-violent protest or the work of left-wing activists trying to make him look bad.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll underscores the staying power of the former president in the GOP, his control over the Republican Party, and the effectiveness of the false and misleading messaging campaigns he and his political allies have waged in the wake of the attacks.

[…]

“Right from the start, it was zero threat,” Trump said last month on Fox News. “Look, they went in – they shouldn’t have done it – some of them went in, and they’re hugging and kissing the police and the guards, you know? They had great relationships. A lot of the people were waved in, and then they walked in, and they walked out.”

His narrative is bolstered by Republicans in the House and Senate, like Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who has clung to a revisionist history of the attack on the Capitol and repeatedly claimed, including at a Senate hearing, that the insurrection was the work of “fake Trump protesters.”

As it stands, federal prosecutors have criminally charged more than 200 rioters, including many who identify themselves as Trump supporters and who have documented ties to far-right extremist groups. There is no substantial evidence, federal prosecutors have said, that left-wing or anti-fascist activists provoked or posed as Trump supporters during the riot.

Yet the Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was conducted March 30-31, shows the messaging campaign of Trump and his supporters is working: While 59% of all Americans say Trump bears some responsibility for the attack, only 3 in 10 Republicans agree.

Moreover, the poll found that 6 in 10 Republicans believe Trump’s claim that November’s presidential election “was stolen” due to widespread voter fraud, and 6 in 10 Republicans also think he should run again in 2024.

In addition, the Reuters/Ipsos poll also found that Trump remains the most popular figure within the GOP, with 8 in 10 Republicans continuing to hold a favorable impression of him a finding that gives some credence to the idea that the former president has been at least somewhat successful in painting himself as the victim.

People who believe January 6th was a peaceful protest and that anyone who committed violence were antifa are either liars or morons or both. I’m sorry, but they are.

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