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Trump’s Massive Corruption While In Office

Will it be a story for more than a day?

Yesterday I observed an exchange on CNN which perfectly illustrates our problem. While acknowledging that it’s important to report on it, Dana Bash said Trump did everything in plain sight “so how much of this is baked in and how much does that vs Joe Biden just cancel each other out. I’m not saying it’s not important I’m just looking at reality”

I wanted to scream in frustration. But one of her panelists, Laura Baron Lopez of PBS had the right answer:

That’s our job in the press to make clear the differences, not just “Republicans call Biden corrupt, Democrats call Trump corrupt and we don’t know what the truth is” when we do know there is no evidence right now at all that says that President Biden did anything wrong or benefited from his son’s business dealings whereas there is a paper trail and there IS evidence showing that former president Trump benefited from his business dealings while he was in office.”

That’s correct. Sadly, it appears to have been a one day story and that’s the end of that. Because it’s “baked in” and Biden did it too, except he didn’t, but people say he did so they cancel each other out. “That’s reality.’

Anyway, here’s my offering on this story:

A few months back I noted a little story in the New York Times about Special Prosecutor Jack Smith’s investigation that didn’t get much circulation. It pertained to the classified documents case:

One of the previously unreported subpoenas to the Trump Organization sought records pertaining to Mr. Trump’s dealings with a Saudi-backed professional golf venture known as LIV Golf, which is holding tournaments at some of Mr. Trump’s golf resorts.

It is unclear what bearing Mr. Trump’s relationship with LIV Golf has on the broader investigation, but it suggests that the prosecutors are examining certain elements of Mr. Trump’s family business.

We knew they were. As the NY Times had earlier reported :

Federal prosecutors overseeing the investigation into former President Donald J. Trump’s handling of classified documents have issued a subpoena for information about Mr. Trump’s business dealings in foreign countries since he took office, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The subpoena — drafted by the office of the special counsel, Jack Smith — sought details on the Trump Organization’s real estate licensing and development dealings in seven countries: China, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, according to the people familiar with the matter. The subpoena sought the records for deals reached since 2017, when Mr. Trump was sworn in as president.

Since the last flurry of activities around the Mar-a-Lago witnesses a few months ago, that documents case has gone very quiet. It’s a national security case so one wouldn’t expect any leaking and it’s being run by an inexperienced Trump appointed judge who is clearly dragging her feet in order to delay the trial until after the election (or have it canceled if Trump happens to win.)

This little episode came back to me when I saw that the Democrats on the House Oversight Committee yesterday had issued a report about the millions Trump made from foreign countries while he was president. Anyone who’s been charged under the espionage act, as Trump has been, would have their finances examined with a fine tooth comb, wouldn’t they? And according to this new report there is ample reason to be suspicious.

The corruption was obvious from the start when Trump refused to divest himself of his business and instead put it into a phony “trust” run by his two sons ( from which he could “withdraw profits” whenever he pleased.) Everyone knew that he was still in control of anything in the business he wanted to be in control of which made the conflicts of interest unprecedented in the annals of the US presidency. He had buildings, hotels and resorts all over the world, even one right down the street from the White House where the entire Republican Party and administration staff hobnobbed with foreign dignitaries and wealthy off shore businessmen who were spreading around a lot of cash.

The Democratic majority on the House Oversight Committee opened an investigation into whether or not Trump was pocketing cash from all these foreign interests in violation of the Constitution’s emoluments clause which states that a president cannot accept any gifts from Kings and Princes and foreign governments without congressional approval (which he never sought.) They were thwarted at every turn in their attempts to obtain financial documents from the Trump Organization and the case was tied up in court for years. The Supreme Court declined to review one case, upholding the ruling by the DC Circuit Court of Appeals that members of Congress lacked the legal standing to sue under the Foreign Emoluments Clause. Later they dismissed two other cases as moot after Trump left office.

However, in late 2022, Mazar’s, Trump’s longtime accounting firm, reached a settlement with the Oversight Committee and agreed to start turning over financial information. The House Democrats finally got to see some of what they had been asking for for years. Needless to say, the Republicans promptly shut down the investigation when they took over in 2023 but the Democrats were able to see information about four of Trump’s domestic properties and who spent money there in the first two years of his term.

Even with those limitations on their investigation, they uncovered a huge amount of potential corruption. According to the report, over 20 foreign governments put cash into Trump’s pockets at just those four properties in 2017 and 2018, to the tune of $7.8 million. The greatest largesse came from just four countries. According to the report:

-Kuwait paid him at least 300k and moved their lavish holiday party to his hotel, after which he proclaimed that he was proud ensure they got a big $5B sale of American F/A-18 Super Hornet fighting jets.

-When he first took office, Trump declared Qatar a funder of terrorism and called them corrupt. But miraculously, after their Permanent Mission to the United Nations spent $6.5 million for an apartment in Trump World Tower (as well as almost half a million more in “expenses) he feted their King at the White House and welcomed them as an ally in the fight against terror.

-The Saudi government paid Trump over $800k in those first two years, no doubt in gratitude for his unprecedented decision to visit there on his lavish first foreign trip and his decision to bypass congress to sell them 8 billion dollars worth of weapons.

And, of course, there’s this:

As president Trump got the most money at those four properties during his first two years from China, which is richly ironic considering the current push to impeach President Biden without evidence for allegedly receiving money from China when he was out of office. (Oversight Committee Chair James Comer called the Democratic report “beyond parody” because Trump had “legitimate businesses.”)

Chinese interests spent more than $5.5 million at Trump Tower and at his hotels in Washington and Las Vegas including millions from the Chinese Embassy and a state-owned bank which the Justice Department believes helped the North Korean government evade sanctions.

Remember this?

Keep in mind that this is likely the tip of the iceberg. He owns hundreds of properties around the world which were wide open to foreign money and there can be no doubt that this went on until his last day in office and beyond.

Trump was the most corrupt president in American history but the fact that he did so much of this in plain sight seems to have strangely inoculated him from accountability on any of it. It’s possible that the Special Prosecutor is pursuing it as part of his espionage investigation and has discovered more evidence but we may never know about it. Even if we do it looks like it will almost certainly come after the election.

However, this absurd impeachment crusade against Joe Biden may just be the hook that pushes the media and the Democrats to refocus the people on what we know he did. It’s outrageous that this man has so many scandals that corruption on this scale is considered of lesser importance than the rest.

Salon

No bar too low

There are no words

Instigating an insurrection is not a deal breaker for Republicans. Nor is Donald Trump accepting untold millions from foreign governments during his presidency. (The reported $7.8 million reported comes from a mere handful of Trump properties.) Nor are felony indictments too many (91) to itemize here. Nor is screwing porn stars and Playboy models or sexually assaulting a journalist. Nor are threats by Trump to use the government to prosecute political enemies. Etc., etc.

Nor is “bending the knee” to their abuser beneath Republicans. Nor is idolatry.

What do Republicans offer prospective voters? Behold:

Jess Piper is Executive Director of Blue Missouri and host of the “Dirt Road Democrat” podcast. Also, she’s one of those straight talkers Republicans claim to admire.

Is America On Biden’s Page?

“History is watching”

Weather has thwarted President Biden’s plans for a major reelection campaign speech. Biden originally meant to mark the third anniverary of the Jan. 6 MAGA insurrection with a speech using Philadelphia as a backdrop, as he did when he called out MAGA Republicans as “a threat to this country” at Independence Hall in September 2022. Biden’s speech will be framed to contrast Biden’s vision of America with that of his expected 2024 Republican opponent, Donald Trump.

The White House has rescheduled the speech for Valley Forge today to get ahead of a winter storm. (I’m still trying to find a time for the speech. Update: It’s at 3 p.m. ET.)

Politico:

Biden aides had long considered holding an event near Valley Forge, famed as the headquarters of Gen. George Washington’s Continental Army during the American Revolution. Advisers during the media call Thursday said that the site has historical resonance not just as a venue for a battle for liberty, but also for the decisions Washington then made.

Washington twice willingly gave up power: first, he resigned his commission as head of the Army, and then later walked away from the presidency after two terms. His example, Biden aides argue, provides a clear and effective contrast to Trump.

Biden, flagging in approval polls and tied with Trump in several, plans to make defense of democracy again a centerpiece of the fall campaign, as he did ahead of the 2022 midterms.

The New York Times:

The address, which builds on previous speeches about safeguarding American institutions and combating political violence, represents a bet that many Americans remain shaken by the Jan. 6 attack and Donald J. Trump’s role in it.

Leaning on a phrase used by America’s first president, George Washington, around the time he commanded troops at Valley Forge, Mr. Biden is expected to suggest that the 2024 election is a test of whether democracy is still a “sacred cause” in the nation, the aide said.

Mr. Biden is fond of using sites of historical significance to underscore speeches that he and his team see as important moments. He traveled to Independence Hall in Philadelphia before the midterm elections and to Gettysburg, Pa., during the 2020 presidential campaign.

His campaign views the events of Jan. 6 — when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol in a violent culmination of his election denialism — as critical to understanding how the 2024 campaign will unfold. His team notes that Mr. Trump and Republicans have tried to rewrite the history of that day but argues that images of the Capitol riot remain seared in the minds of voters.

Biden campaign officials spoke on Tuesday with reporters on their strategy on Tuesday (New Yorker):

“The choice for voters,” Julie Chávez Rodríguez, Biden’s campaign manager, said on the call, “will not simply be between competing philosophies of government.” She continued, “The choice will be about protecting our democracy and every American’s fundamental freedom. . . . We are running our campaign like the fate of our democracy depends on it, because it does.” Quentin Fulks, the deputy campaign manager, added, “Donald Trump tells us point blank—if he wins a second term, he will do everything he can to dismantle American democracy, strip Americans of their hard-fought and fundamental freedoms. . . . We should take him at his word.”

“I’ve made the preservation of American democracy the central issue of my presidency,” Biden says in new ad contrasting footage of Americans voting with white supremacists marching in Charlottesville, Va. and Jan. 6 MAGA violence at the U.S. Capitol.

“There’s something dangerous happening in America,” Biden continues. “There’s an extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs in our democracy.”

Biden is betting scenes from the Jan. 6 insurrection have not faded from Americans’ short memories. Subtext: You can have a democracy of the people, by the people, for the people, or an autocracy of Trump, by Trump, for Trump.

“History is watching. The world is watching.”

Trump’s Right Hand Gal

You have to watch this retrograde con woman to fully appreciate the caliber of “lawyers” Trump still has around him even after Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell were flushed down the drain:

I look forward to reading the memoirs of the semi-serious lawyers who are defending Trump to hear more about the legal services Alina Habba provides him. I’d imagine they will be much like this:

A Florida-based federal judge has ordered nearly $1 million in sanctions against Donald Trump and his attorney Alina Habba, calling the former president a “mastermind of strategic abuse of the judicial process.”

In a blistering 46-page order, U.S. District Court Judge Donald Middlebrooks said Trump’s sprawling lawsuit against Hillary Clinton and dozens of former Justice Department and FBI officials was an almost cartoonish abuse of the legal system.

“Here, we are confronted with a lawsuit that should never have been filed, which was completely frivolous, both factually and legally, and which was brought in bad faith for an improper purpose,” Middlebrooks wrote. “Mr. Trump is a prolific and sophisticated litigant who is repeatedly using the courts to seek revenge on political adversaries. He is the mastermind of strategic abuse of the judicial process, and he cannot be seen as a litigant blindly following the advice of a lawyer.“

The judge ordered Trump and Habba to pay $938,000 to cover the legal costs for the 31 defendants Trump linked in his year-old lawsuit. It’s the second time Middlebrooks has sanctioned Habba in the Clinton lawsuit. The first time was a $50,000 order sought by a single defendant, Charles Dolan. The new round of sanctions was sought by the remaining defendants.

Trump goes everywhere with her. I guess that makes sense. He does need a lot of legal counselling.

Why Do People Think The Economy Is So Bad?

Lately I’m just seeing very little coverage at all which still benefits Trump. There are exceptions thank goodness:

Quacks On Parade

The Anti Vaxxers are no longer on the fringe

I guess this figures. We can only hope that he doesn’t manage to get on the ballots in the swing states or if he does that he’ll only appeal to the right wing anti-vaxxers:

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Tuesday unveiled his new campaign communications director: Del Bigtree, one of the country’s leading anti-vaxxers.

Bigtree, who serves as the executive director of the Informed Consent Action Network—one of the nation’s largest anti-vaccine organizations—announced his new role in a letter that blasted presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden for their roles in distributing the COVID-19 vaccine.

“In January 2020, we witnessed what the dark forces of medical tyranny are capable of when they launched the greatest psychological operation the world has ever experienced,” Bigtree wrote. “we watched in sick astonishment as both President Trump and President Biden put the fate of our nation into Dr. Anthony Fauci’s hands.”

This is so outrageous. And he’s nothing compared to this nutcase:

Florida’s top health official called for a halt to using mRNA coronavirus vaccines on Wednesday, contending that the shots could contaminate patients’ DNA — aclaim that has been roundly debunked by public health experts, federal officials and the vaccine companies.

Florida Surgeon General Joseph A. Ladapo’s announcement, released as a state bulletin, comes after months of back-and-forth with federal regulators who have repeatedly rebuked his rhetoric around vaccines.Public health experts warn of the dangers of casting doubt on proven lifesaving measures as respiratory viruses surge this winter.

“We’ve seen this pattern from Dr. Ladapo that every few months he raises some new concern and it quickly gets debunked,” said Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s public health school who led the White House’s national coronavirus response before stepping down last year.“This idea of DNA fragments — it’s scientific nonsense. People who understand how these vaccines are made and administered understand that there is no risk here.”

Ladapo issued the bulletin as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), his political patron, fights to stay alive in the Republican presidential primary, in which he trails former president Donald Trump by more than 40 percentage points in head-to-head polls. The Iowa caucuses, the first nominating contest, are slated to be held Jan. 15.

“Providers concerned about patient health risks associated with COVID-19 should prioritize patient access to non-mRNA COVID-19 vaccines and treatment,” Ladapo wrote.

Florida’s health department did not immediately respond to questions about whether Ladapo’s new stance would affect vaccine access for the state’s patients and health providers, or whether his decision to repeat debunked claims could create doubts about other routine vaccinations. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows that Florida lags far behind most states when it comes to the percentage of its population that has received an updated booster dose. Meanwhile, covid hospitalizations have been on the rise nationally, with almost 30,000 Americans newly hospitalized the week of Dec. 23.

Scott Rivkees, a DeSantis appointee who preceded Ladapo as Florida surgeon general before stepping down in September 2021, called Wednesday’s announcement “surprising and disappointing” and at odds with settled science about the safety of coronavirus vaccines. But current DeSantis officials praised the announcement.

“Grateful to live in a state where Big Pharma does not dictate health policy recommendations,” Christina Pushaw, a DeSantis campaign official, posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, where she thanked Ladapo “for standing up for scientific integrity.” The DeSantis campaign did not respond to questions about whether the governor coordinated with Ladapo on the announcement or whether he would adopt a similar position if elected president.

All those seniors who live in Florida are having their health put at risk because Ron DeSantis wanted to out-Trump Trump on the vaccine issue so he appointed this quack as Surgeon General.

By the way:

At least 200 million people worldwide have struggled with long COVID: a slew of symptoms that can persist for months or even years after an infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID. But research suggests that that number would likely be much higher if not for vaccines.

A growing consensus is emerging that receiving multiple doses of the COVID vaccine before an initial infection can dramatically reduce the risk of long-term symptoms. Although the studies disagree on the exact amount of protection, they show a clear trend: the more shots in your arm before your first bout with COVID, the less likely you are to get long COVID. One meta-analysis of 24 studies published in October, for example, found that people who’d had three doses of the COVID vaccine were 68.7 percent less likely to develop long COVID compared with those who were unvaccinated. “This is really impressive,” says Alexandre Marra, a medical researcher at the Albert Einstein Israelite Hospital in Brazil and the lead author of the study. “Booster doses make a difference in long COVID.”

These anti-vaxxers and their enablers are making people very sick with this nonsense. DeSantis should be held responsible for what he’s done to the people of his state. I don’t eve know what to say about RFK Jr except that he’s a lunatic.

Have we always been this crazy?

Falling In Line

Such profiles in courage. There hasn’t even been one primary and they’re already crawling on their bellies to lick Donald Trump’s boots. It’s sickening.

Scalise is predictable. He’s the guy who said he was running as “David Duke without the baggage.” Of course he’s with Trump. Hard core Christian theocrat Mike Johnson is backing Trump despite the fact that Trump is a Jeffrey Epstein pal recently found liable for sexual assault (among dozens of other “ungodly” behaviors.) He’s quite the moral man of faith.

I listened to the Bulwark podcast last night while cooking dinner and Tim Miller reminded me about Emmer. This happened just 10 weeks ago:

Just hours after Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) won the Republican Conference’s nomination to be House speaker on Tuesday, former President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to deride the congressman as “totally out-of-touch with Republican Voters” and a “Globalist RINO.”

He then got on the phone with members to express his aversion for Emmer and his bid for speaker.

By Tuesday afternoon Trump called one person close to him with the message, “He’s done. It’s over. I killed him.”

Just minutes later, Emmer officially dropped out of the race.

Now, Emmer says “thank you sir, may I have another” and endorses him.

Republican cowards, cynics and opportunists are the only people in the world who bow down to Trump and it convinces his brain dead cult that he is the strongman they’ve been waiting for. What an incredible con this is.

Miller wondered why Emmer would bother because he really has no future in politics beyond what he already has. But that answers itself. He’s afraid that Trump will make them take it away and apparently there is no amount of personal pride or integrity that is worth more than that silly job.

Republican politicians, all of them, are eager to humiliate themselves before the Orange Julius Caesar. It makes them feel safe.

It makes me feel nauseous.

Update:

Former President Donald Trump has reportedly delighted in how even lawmakers that he’s crossed are backing his 2024 presidential bid.

According to a New York Times report, Trump has bragged about how Rep. Tom Emmer, the No. 3 House Republican, endorsed his presidential campaign even after Trump derailed Emmer’s effort to become speaker of the House in the wake of Kevin McCarthy’s historic ouster.

“They always bend the knee,” Trump said privately of Emmer.

There’s a word for this but I’m too civilized to use it.

People Of Faith?

Only 13% say Joe Biden is. And yet:

Meanwhile, here’s the very pious Donald Trump:

From the outset of his brief political career, Trump has viewed right-wing evangelical leaders as a kind of special-interest group to be schmoozed, conned, or bought off, former aides told me. Though he faced Republican primary opponents in 2016 with deeper religious roots—Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee—Trump was confident that his wealth and celebrity would attract high-profile Christian surrogates to vouch for him.

“His view was ‘I’ve been talking to these people for years; I’ve let them stay at my hotels—they’re gonna endorse me. I played the game,’” said a former campaign adviser to Trump, who, like others quoted in this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.

It helped that Trump seemed to feel a kinship with prosperity preachers—often evincing a game-recognizes-game appreciation for their hustle. The former campaign adviser recalled showing his boss a YouTube video of the Israeli televangelist Benny Hinn performing “faith healings,” while Trump laughed at the spectacle and muttered, “Man, that’s some racket.” On another occasion, the adviser told me, Trump expressed awe at Joel Osteen’s media empire—particularly the viewership of his televised sermons.

In Cohen’s recent memoir, Disloyal, he recounts Trump returning from his 2011 meeting with the pastors who laid hands on him and sneering, “Can you believe that bullshit?” But if Trump found their rituals ridiculous, he followed their moneymaking ventures closely. “He was completely familiar with the business dealings of the leadership in many prosperity-gospel churches,” the adviser told me.

The conservative Christian elites Trump surrounds himself with have always been more clear-eyed about his lack of religiosity than they’ve publicly let on. In a September 2016 meeting with about a dozen influential figures on the religious right—including the talk-radio host Eric Metaxas, the Dallas megachurch pastor Robert Jeffress, and the theologian Wayne Grudem—the then-candidate was blunt about his relationship to Christianity. In a recording of the meeting obtained by The Atlantic, the candidate can be heard shrugging off his scriptural ignorance (“I don’t know the Bible as well as some of the other people”) and joking about his inexperience with prayer (“The first time I met [Mike Pence], he said, ‘Will you bow your head and pray?’ and I said, ‘Excuse me?’ I’m not used to it.”) At one point in the meeting, Trump interrupted a discussion about religious freedom to complain about Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska and brag about the taunting nickname he’d devised for him. “I call him Little Ben Sasse,” Trump said. “I have to do it, I’m sorry. That’s when my religion always deserts me.”

And yet, by the end of the meeting—much of which was spent discussing the urgency of preventing trans women from using women’s restrooms—the candidate had the group eating out of his hand. “I’m not voting for Trump to be the teacher of my third grader’s Sunday-school class. That’s not what he’s running for,” Jeffress said in the meeting, adding, “I believe it is imperative … that we do everything we can to turn people out.”

Trump’s resemblance to a prosperity preacher is striking. They’re all scam artists and so is he. It’s not surprising, when you think about it, that the people who send them money would fall for a demagogic cult leader like Donald Trump. They’ve been conditioned to do so for years. What’s more disturbing is the fact that those same scam artists are in on Trump’s con. They want real power now, not just money.

As I’ve said a million times, the best part of all this is that the Christian Right has fully been exposed now. We don’t ever have to take their moral posturing seriously again.

This Is What It All Comes Down To

Joe Biden will be giving a big speech on the anniversary of January 6th. Its themes could not be more important. And yet, we have every reason to anticipate the media covering it by discussion whether or not it actually helps Trump in the opinion polls for Biden to lay out the stakes in this campaign. It’s what they do. They’ll poll the speech and then spend hours and hours and spill buckets of pixels on whether or not “it works.”

Margaret Sullivan explains why that’s wrong and what they should do instead:

When Joe Biden talks on Friday about US democracy on the brink, there’s no doubt that it will be a campaign speech. Maybe the most important one of his life.

But the speech will be more than that. It’s intended as a warning and a red alert, delivered on the anniversary of the violent January 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

The date was chosen for good reason – to make the point that more mayhem and more flagrant disregard for the rule of law and fair elections, are just around the corner if Donald Trump is re-elected.

Can the political media in America get that reality across? Or will their addiction to “horserace” coverage prevail?

So far, the signs aren’t particularly promising.

A line high up in the New York Times’ advance coverage of what Biden plans to say is typical of the mainstream media’s tone and focus: “The two speeches are part of an effort to redirect attention from Mr. Biden’s low approval numbers and remind Democrats and independent voters of the alternative to his reelection.” (Biden is speaking on Saturday at Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, and Monday at the South Carolina church where a young white supremacist murdered nine black parishioners in late 2016.)

CNN offered an advance headline that emphasized the presidential race, not the message: “Biden opens campaign push …”

USA Today did better, putting the emphasis where it belongs: “Biden will mark Jan 6 anniversary with speech warning Trump is a threat to democracy.”

We all know there’s a campaign happening. And remember, many readers don’t get beyond the headlines or news alerts. Those bulletins have to be short, true, but they also have to get the larger job done.

I’m not suggesting that Biden’s speech be covered as something separate from his presidential campaign. It’s obvious that November’s election and the fragility of American democracy are intertwined.

Even Biden campaign officials are making that point. “We are running a campaign like the fate of our democracy depends upon it. Because it does,” campaign manager Julia Chavez Rodriguez has said.

But there is another element that is more subtle.

“The choice for voters,” Rodriguez said, “will not simply be between competing philosophies of government. The choice will be about protecting our democracy and every American’s fundamental freedom.”

That’s where the media gets tripped up. In a constant show of performative neutrality, journalists tend to equalize the unequal, taking coverage down the middle even though that’s not where true fairness lies.

She goes on to discuss how the media is always afraid of being accused of liberal bias etc. etc. But she ends the piece with a quote from a media figure that actually tells it like it is:

In an NPR interview, former Washington Post executive editor Martin Baron laid out the facts clearly:

“He’s the only politician I’ve heard actually talk about suspending the constitution. He’s talked about using the military to suppress entirely legitimate protests using the Insurrection Act. He’s talked about bringing treason charges against the then-outgoing chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. He’s talked about bringing treason charges against Comcast, the owner of NBC and MSNBC. He’s talked explicitly about weaponizing the government against his political enemies. And, of course, he continues to talk about crushing an independent press.”

And, as Baron concluded, no editorializing is necessary because “all of those [threats], by nature, by definition, are authoritarian”.

That’s what’s going on here. It’s not a “both sides issue.” As she says:

Reporters and their bosses – both in newsrooms and in glossy corporate offices – should remember that being in favor of democracy isn’t a journalistic crime. In fact, it’s a journalistic obligation.

I know that there are some who are trying very hard to do this. But it has to be consistent and it has to be relentless. This message won’t break through the noise unless they make a commitment to doing that.

It’s The Independents, Stupid

Campaign business as usual won’t cut it in 2024

If you live in a blue county, you probably think independents lean your way. And maybe they do. Inside city limits. But outside? Nationwide, independent voters lean red, and did in November 2022 even if the split looked closer in December 2023.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Plus, the segment of the electorate that identifies as independent is growing steadily (below). There are more of them than there are Democrats or Republicans.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/17/voting-independents-political-parties/

Over half of voters roughly 45 and younger identify as independents.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/319068/party-identification-in-the-united-states-by-generation/

Not all states register by party (including some key swing states), so there this is harder to parse out. But here are two 2024 swing states that do.

In North Carolina (16 electoral votes), for example, the current registration breakdown is:

Independents: 36%
Democrats: 33%
Republicans: 30%

In Arizona (11 electoral votes), the registration breakdown is:

Independents: 35%
Republicans: 34%
Democrats: 30%

Good News, Bad News

Democrats cannot win without earning the votes of a sufficient number of independents and that could be a challenge, especially for candidates running statewide.

The good news is that even if independents have a significantly unfavorable view of both major parties, voters 49 and younger have a significantly more favorable view of Democrats than Republicans (below).

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/the-republican-and-democratic-parties/

The bad news is that those younger independents who most lean Democrat actually vote far less than those who bleed red. See Nonvoters under “AGE” below. In 2022, nearly 2/3 of nonvoters were 49 and younger, per Pew. See Millennials and Gen Z, above.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/

Regular readers already know the next chart. Where’s the most potential for Democrats to increase voter turnout?

Millennial and Gen Z independents are exactly the Democrat-leaners Democrats need voting more. But they don’t, not enough. Why not? (This gets technical, but I’ll try to simplify.)

To target prospective voters for get-out-the-vote efforts, Democrats rely on their national voter database, VoteBuilder, a product of NGP VAN. The tool’s premise is microtargeting: each voter gets assigned a Democratic Support score based on a variety of factors. For example: 1) Are they registered Democrats? 2) If unaffiliated, have they ever voted a Democratic ballot in a primary (as in Arizona and North Carolina)? 3) How often do they vote? Included are minor weighting factors for income, education, consumer preferences, etc. Based on those scores, campaigns decide which voters look like low-hanging fruit for voter outreach. Many campaigns start contacting voters with scores of 70 and higher. Independents less-prone to vote start with three or more strikes against them, and there are more of them than there are of us (Democrats).

Lower down the scale, warns the Michigan Dems help desk, “while only 50% of voters with a score of 50 are expected to support Democrats, that group could be 50% left wing activists, 50% Tea Party Republicans.”  Few campaigns in this political environment want to dispatch door-knockers to homes with scores that low. Too risky.

Michah L. Sifry commented on the recent report “The Experience of Grassroots Leaders Working with the Democratic Party.” One complaint stood out:  A majority of respondents said the party does a terrible job targeting voters, saying that its lists are far too narrow.

Now you know why. Democrats are policy liberals and campaign conservatives.

Multiple precinct chairs and field organizers balked when asked about outreach below their accustomed arbitrary Democratic Support score. If canvassers knock doors where VoteBuilder does not indicate firm Democratic support and volunteers get their heads bitten off a couple of times, they said, they’ll go home and organizers lose their volunteer base. That’s a reasonable concern. But it’s hardly a campaign-winning strategy.

The problem Democrats face in North Carolina, for example, is that, statewide independents vote 58% against Democrats. What helps keep statewide margins narrow here is that while independents outnumber Democrats by 3%, they turn out at 6.5% less than Democrats. But in hundreds of urban precincts in the largest, bluest counties where independents (in the aggregate) vote 60, 70, 80-90% for Democrats, they vote at roughly 12% less.*

Chicken or egg? Are these lower-propensity voters not turning out like their independent neighbors because they are simply less-engaged? Or because Democrats are not engaging them?

Buckle up. Let’s win this thing.

This is microtargeting’s Achilles’ heel. In neighborhoods where independents who do vote choose Democrats by 60, 70, 80-90%, campaigns bait individual hooks for high-scorers instead of casting nets. Many of these voters reside in neighborhoods campaigns deprioritize for outreach because they consistently vote blue and heavily. Just not the independents in them.

Pie-in-the-sky? If turnout for independents in these canvassable neighborhoods matched Democrats’ turnout there, I estimate in ten counties an additional 56,000 votes for the Democrat at the top of the ticket. That’s unrealistic. But even if campaigns could boost independent turnout there up to the state average (6.5% below Democrats), that’s still over 25,000 extra votes.

Democrats and allied 501s can mitigate risks of canvassers and phone bankers encountering hostile (read: MAGA) independents by expanding outreach in specific precincts where independents vote Democrat by 60, 70, 80-90%. (Talk about low-hanging fruit.) As Billy Beane said in Moneyball, “We are card counters at the blackjack table. And we’re gonna turn the odds on the casino.”

But not using a partisan message. Volunteers’ pitch to these untapped, young independents is not to evangelize for Democrats. Independents don’t like them. They don’t pay close attention to party politics. Independents “view themselves as proudly unmoored from any candidate or party.” Voting in 2024 has to be about them, about local/state issues to be decided in the election that may impact them or people they love. The ask is: Vote this fall for them.

Are there issues about which they care strongly? Do they know they’ll need a photo ID in 2024 because THOSE GUYS don’t want them voting? Offer nonpartisan information on the where, when, and how of casting their fall ballot. Will you exercise your freedom this fall? Save democracy? Make history?

In these precincts, we don’t care what indys’ support scores are. If they vote, Democrats score. Those are the odds.

But this requires campaigners in North Carolina, in Arizona, and maybe Pennsylvania to change the way they are accustomed to doing business, so maybe forget it.

Of course, if I were former N.C. Chief Justice Cheri Beasley who lost her seat by 401 votes in 2020, I’d settle for any fraction of 25,000 extra votes.

* My own estimates from 2022 precinct results across almost 50 N.C. counties. Hello, Arizona? There are over 900 precincts in blue Maricopa alone. What I’ve estimated here, activists could estimate there.