Or is it the stupid incompetence?
I’m sharing this analysis of what’s wrong with this war by Richard Haas, old-hand diplomat and expert on the region, because it’s clearly written and very honest. As far as I can tell, and I’m far from an expert, this is it:
They have gotten it wrong at just about every turn. There was no new intelligence or development justifying the decision to go to war. Even the loyalist serving as Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, could not provide evidence to the contrary. That said, her comment that “it is not the intelligence community’s responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat” is flat-out preposterous. That is precisely its responsibility. And the president’s responsibility is to make policy decisions informed by sound intelligence.
The errors did not end there. There were expectations that Iran would quickly capitulate—and no expectations that it would retaliate effectively. Regime change was seen, at least by the president, as likely. The list goes on. What explains this record? I would suggest hubris in the aftermath of the Venezuela operation and more broadly in the wake of Trump’s reelection. Then there was the hollowing out of government agencies, from the National Security Council staff to the State Department, resulting in a marked lack of expertise and experience. The appointment of people to jobs they had no business holding – from Gabbard to Hegseth to the two envoys handling or, more accurately, mishandling the negotiations with Iran (not to mention Russia and Ukraine and Gaza) – is another factor. The absence of much in the way of a formal policymaking process where truth is regularly spoken to power compounds the mistakes and helps explain what has gone so wrong.
Some are blaming Israel and its prime minister for where we find ourselves. I disagree. Bibi Netanyahu is free to make his case to this president, as is any foreign leader. It is up to Trump, though, to decide what is in the best interests of the United States.
The problem is that Trump has not done this. He has failed to stand up to Netanyahu even though the interests of the two countries have been and remain different. Israel was pressing for war to eliminate much of Iran’s ballistic missile inventory. The United States was, ostensibly, far more focused on the unresolved nuclear issue. Yet the Trump administration walked away from negotiations that showed some potential to deal with nuclear matters, instead launching an ill-advised war that, thus far, has left Iran’s nuclear capabilities intact.
And now the divergence between the interests of the two countries is even greater. Israel’s strategy toward Iran mirrors its strategy toward Gaza and Lebanon: an open-ended war of attrition to reduce military capabilities and destroy leadership. The preference is for regime change, but Israel is willing to accept disarray, in the leadership, the country, or both. It is willing to pursue this policy for as long as it takes, i.e., forever if need be, as the bulk of its interests as it sees them are in play.
By contrast, U.S. priorities are largely elsewhere (or at least should be), namely in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, where rival major powers reside, as well as in the functioning of a global economy. This war is at odds with all this: it has seriously disrupted the global economy and is consuming U.S. resources better deployed and employed elsewhere.
From Worse to Even Worse
Israel made a bad situation worse this week by attacking Iran’s South Pars gas field. Trump has been all over the place since, at times denying and at other times admitting his involvement, but there is little doubt that he knew of and even approved the misguided Israeli action, one that led to multiple Iranian attacks that destroyed energy infrastructure in Qatar and other neighboring countries.
Not surprisingly, Trump is now frantically looking for a way out. For only the second time in his experience as president (the other being the COVID-19 pandemic in his first term), Trump is up against something he cannot control. He has let slip the dogs of war, and in their own way both Israel and Iran have seized the initiative. Instead of an easy victory, which is how Trump viewed Venezuela, he finds himself struggling with what could be the defining moment and failure of his presidency.
Trump’s latest idea, advanced by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, is to “unsanction” Iranian oil that has left Iran but has yet to reach its destination. It is a singularly bad move. Any impact on oil prices will be small and fleeting, but the offer signals to Iran that the U.S. is increasingly desperate for the conflict to end, a signal that will only increase Iran’s price for ending it and the lengths Iran will go to ensure it ends on its terms. Any easing of sanctions on Iran should be conditioned on changes in its behavior. That this offer came just hours after Iran attacked many of its neighbors who also happen to be U.S. partners and allies only made a bad decision worse. The price tag for this war, no matter how it ends, will be large and long-lasting.
He has some ideas for how to possibly get out of this thing which you should read at the link.
This mess gets worse every day. Trump is just flying by the seat of his pants impulsively making decisions that have no strategic logic. There is simply no way of telling where this is going but it will be sheer luck if the consequences aren’t catastrophic.
