From H1B to H5N1
We move now from the MAGA civil war over H1B visas to the H5N1 bird flu. (It’s getting hard to keep the abbreviations straight without a bound reference.)
CDC:
December 18, 2024— A patient has been hospitalized with a severe case of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus (“H5N1 bird flu”) infection in Louisiana. This marks the first instance of severe illness linked to the virus in the United States. The case was confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday, December 13. Since April 2024, there have been a total of 61 reported human cases of H5 bird flu reported in the United States.
[…]
A sporadic case of severe H5N1 bird flu illness in a person is not unexpected; avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection has previously been associated with severe human illness in other countries during 2024 and prior years, including illness resulting in death. No person-to-person spread of H5 bird flu has been detected. This case does not change CDC’s overall assessment of the immediate risk to the public’s health from H5N1 bird flu, which remains low.
No need to panic. Donald Trump will be in the White House again on January 20. And a pale horse will be loose in the Department of Health and Human Services. He’s set to “go wild on health.” So, no worries.
Unless you own cattle in California (The Independent):
A dozen more dairy herds in California have been stricken with bird flu as the virus continues to infect animals and humans around the U.S.
Nearly 700 herds in the state — or 71 percent of all herds — have caught H5N1 since late August, forcing Governor Gavin Newsom to declare a state of emergency and the government to announce new testing.
While California, the nation’s top milk-producing state, has the most infections in dairy herds, more infections were reported in Michigan, and the number of confirmed human cases has inched closer to 70, according to health officials.
A virus sample from the infected person in Louisiana, the CDC announced after Christmas, showed signs of genetic mutations. One of them was found in a teenager in British Columbia in November who was in critical condition for weeks.
Intelligencer asked Dr. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan, for her assessment of the potential risk. She believes the mutations occured in the patient over the course of the infection and not in the wild. “So it was unlikely to be transmitted onto another person, and it’s not actually emerging in the birds that this person became infected by,” she advised:
I don’t know what it would take to turn H5N1 into a pandemic virus, and I don’t think anybody does. I can’t say when or if it will happen. I mean, it’s something that could happen tomorrow, and it’s something that could never happen. But the chances of it happening are continuing to increase, and that’s what gives me cause for a lot of concern.
Don’t handle dead or sick birds, for starters. Or drink raw milk. Avoid bird droppings, etc.
As a virologist, do you think this feels like a slow-motion disaster unfurling?
It feels like a slow-motion disaster. The cattle outbreak has spread far and wide. We still don’t know how many cows and herds are affected. There are some states where there’s been almost no testing, so we may well see new states popping up on that positive map. There’s no way that you can contain an outbreak if you don’t know the full scale and scope of that outbreak.Adding to the problem, there are multiple genotypes of the virus circulating. The case in Louisiana was associated with birds, which is different from the cattle virus. It’s not that big of a distinction to the general public, but what that means is that there are essentially multiple sources of this virus. So you could get it from cows, but you could also get it from birds. You could get it from domestic birds, or you could get it from wild birds. In fact, that’s how a lot of the domestic poultry operations are getting infected, because wild birds fly in there and the next thing you know, you’re having to cull a flock. So there’s a lot of the virus around just in nature. It’s also now getting into wild mammals, including ones that live in close proximity to people, like skunks and foxes and raccoons. It’s also getting into pets. It just feels like there are so many different pathways for this to go terribly wrong.
Mark Sumner at Uncharted Blue cautions:
This is not the time to panic and begin stocking up on toilet paper and canned goods. However, it may be an excellent time to make sure you following the news (no matter how unpleasant that is these days), have a supply of masks, and are prepared to deal with a return of “social distancing.”
The big problem may be that, if H5N1 does break through into the human population, almost everything that comes next is heavily dependent on the government response–a government response that’s set to be determined by Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Robert Kennedy Jr.
And unless there’s an outbreak of responsibility and common sense in the MAGA GOP when and if an H5N1 outbreak occurs, we’ll have a pale horse loose in the DHS and Panama Orange holding daily briefings again in the White House Press Briefing Room.
Have a stiff one this New Year’s Eve.