Axios conducted a focus group that I’m seeing touted all over the media as if it’s the Oracle of Delphi. I’ll let you be the judge if anyone should take this seriously:
Every Arizona swing voter in our latest Engagious/Sago focus groups said they approve of President Trump’s actions since taking office — and most also support Elon Musk’s efforts to slash government.
Public opinion can constrain presidents when Congress does not. But these 11 voters — all of whom backed Joe Biden in 2020 but switched to Trump last November — said they’re good with Trump aggressively testing disruptive, expansionist expressions of presidential power that are piling up in court challenges.
It’s needed to “get America back on track,” one participant said.
One notable area of disagreement with Trump: The idea of the U.S. displacing Palestinians and taking over and redeveloping Gaza. These swing voters want Trump to stick with Americans’ needs inside the U.S.
Some would like to see him do more, sooner, to rein in consumer costs. But several said they don’t mind that Trump’s early actions haven’t primarily focused on inflation — even when that was their top issue in the election — and said they can be patient if prices don’t come down for a while.
Several doubt the warnings that tariffs may translate to long-term price increases for American consumers.
Several expressed views that “waste, fraud and abuse” are so prevalent that government agencies can be slashed or eliminated without hurting services on which they depend.
The voters participated in two online focus groups, conducted Feb. 11. They included 11 Arizonans who backed Trump last year, after rejecting Trump for Biden in 2020. Eight were independents, two were Republicans and one was a Democrat.
While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events.
“I agree we need the Constitution and we need rules and procedures,” said Courtney L., 34. “But at the same time, how are we going to make big changes? If someone like Trump [is] being unconventional, we need him to be doing these things, to be making these executive orders and making these big changes for big changes to happen.”
“I like how he’s cleaning house in the government,” said Jonas G., 55.
“I approve because I believe he’s transparent, and we haven’t had that for the last four years,” said Ann B., 54.
Other respondents were supportive of Trump’s executive orders on immigration and efforts to eliminate diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.
Seven of the 11 voters rejected that the president is trying to deliberately “flood the zone” to dilute attention on any one action.
Trump “has to get started early on as soon as he gets elected into office, get to work,” said Melvin G., 30.
“He said he was going to do this, this, this and this, and this is what he is starting to get done,” said Ann B.
Eight of the 11 respondents also said they approve of Musk’s efforts in the administration.
Few had concerns Musk is motivated by personal gain — or that his status as the world’s richest man, who controls companies with billions of dollars in government contracts and faces investigations and regulatory hurdles, presents conflicts of interest.
[…]
Vice President JD Vance and other prominent Republicans this week expressed the sentiment that “judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power.”
This view has raised concerns from Democrats and even some GOP lawmakers that the Trump administration could flout an eventual court ruling.
The Arizona swing voters rejected concerns Trump could subvert the judiciary.
“That wouldn’t happen. I’m not even thinking about it,” said Jonas G., when asked about the hypothetical of Trump rejecting a Supreme Court decision.
Ann B. said it’s “fearmongering.”
“I agree we need the Constitution and we need rules and procedures,” said Courtney L., 34. “But at the same time, how are we going to make big changes? If someone like Trump [is] being unconventional, we need him to be doing these things, to be making these executive orders and making these big changes for big changes to happen.”
“I like how he’s cleaning house in the government,” said Jonas G., 55.
“I approve because I believe he’s transparent, and we haven’t had that for the last four years,” said Ann B., 54.
Other respondents were supportive of Trump’s executive orders on immigration and efforts to eliminate diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.
Trump “has to get started early on as soon as he gets elected into office, get to work,” said Melvin G., 30.
“He said he was going to do this, this, this and this, and this is what he is starting to get done,” said Ann B.
I wonder what a group of MAGA hardcore’s would sound like in contrast? Why do I suspect that’s exactly what they are?
Maybe they represent America, I don’t know. I’m certainly prepared to believe it. The world has gone mad, after all. But I’m going to reserve judgement until I see some real polling.
It does validate my belief that Trump’s pathological lying works in his favor for people who love him. He can say anything and they simply believe whatever part of it they like and discard everything they don’t. The only way any of them will be dissuaded of his genius will be if something happens to them personally. Otherwise, they will rationalize or disregard all the negatives. Some, as you can see, simply enjoy watching the fire burn everything down.
By the way, the completely non-partisan, fellow who conducted the “focus group” said, “the prospect of a looming constitutional crisis is completely inconceivable to them” and Trump, Vance and Musk “should be ecstatic and Democrats should be scared to death.” He said they were all “delighted by Musk’s Trump-endorsed government housecleaning,” So at least we know we’re getting objective information.
Update: The Wall St Journal followed up with some swing voters and it wasn’t quite as euphoric. Weirdly, I haven’t seen the media spend hours dissecting this article as they have the other focus group:
Staci White said she voted for President Trump because she wanted lower prices and to stop fentanyl from coming into the U.S.
Now, with widespread federal layoffs and expected cuts, she worries her family will lose their house if her partner is laid off from his government-adjacent job. At the dialysis unit where she works, staff have started doing drills for what to do if Immigration and Customs Enforcement comes to deport their patients, some of whom are in the country illegally.
“When we said safer borders, I thought he was thinking ‘let’s stop the drugs from coming into the country,’” she said. “I didn’t know he was going to start raiding places.” She said she didn’t believe he would actually follow through on some of the more hard-line policies he touted during the campaign.
“Now I’m like: ‘Dang, why didn’t I just pick Kamala?’” said the 49-year-old Omaha, Neb., resident, referring to the former vice president and last-minute Democratic nominee.
A poll released last month by The Wall Street Journal found that most wanted a tempered, less assertive set of policies than Trump promised in the most unbridled moments of his campaign. The Journal in recent weeks followed up with nearly two dozen of Trump’s supporters and discovered a divergence: Some expressed regrets or concerns, while many were gleeful over his early actions to shake up Washington.
They did talk to some former RFK voters who are happy but let’s face facts those are all weirdos.
I suspect that public opinion may not be quite as clear as that focus group says. We’ll have to wait and see…
