… or a Republican

G. Elliott Morris looks at the youth vote in light of the recent polling. He challenges the idea that they broke so heavily for Trump in the first place, citing a number of conflicting surveys. But there is no doubt that they are not Trump fans now:
Let’s start with the newsy data. According to a new poll published by the Pew Research Center on April 23, 2025, only 36% of adults between the ages of 18-29 approve of the job Trump is doing as president today, vs 63% who disapprove. That’s a net gap of 27 points against Trump, compared to an exit poll estimate in 2024 of Harris +4.

Comparing Trump’s approval directly to the results of the 2024 election, that’s a pretty huge (23-point!) shift. This means there’s a large group of young people out there who do not like Trump, but voted for him last year because either (a) they did like him then or (b) they liked Trump more than Harris. There are also a lot of young people who didn’t vote at all.
Pew’s poll also finds Black and Hispanic voters are more anti-Trump now than they were in 2024, so there’s some amount of overall shifting going on here. As you’d expect with a topline 60% disapproval and 40% approval.
But it’s not just Pew finding Trump doing poorly with the youths. I took all the polls conducted in April and averaged their age-level crosstabs together. That average for adults and voters under 30 is still Disapprove +27, though the other age crosstabs differ from Pew’s findings.
In the graph below, I show Trump’s average approval by age group now compared to his 2024 result with each bloc:

According to these polls, Trump is now about as unpopular as he was in 2020. According to the exit polls, Biden won young people by 25 points.
And young people are not particularly fond of Trump’s policies, either. Below, the latest Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll shows support for key proposals among 18-30 year olds adults:

These two charts certainly put things into perspective… But they’re confusing at the same time. The swing chart shows quite an enormous shift in public opinion in a very short period of time. Did young voters just dislike Harris that much? Are they souring on Trump now for any particular reason? Were they ever even that right-leaning to begin with? Or maybe voting Trump was a manifestation of something else?
Morris speculates that it’s because young voters are “particularly economically sensitive and anti-incumbent.” They’re not partisans, at least in the way we used to think about it. COVID-19, high housing prices and inflation have hit this generation hard. (Read my previous post for a look at what it was like to be a young person during the stagflation 70s… we were anti-establishment, anti-incumbent too.) Corrupt political leadership and revelations of abuse of power lead to cynicism in young people. It took me many years to shake off the reflexive pessimism and disdain for politics. Add to that the huge societal changes wrought by technology and the isolation it’s fostered and it’s understandable that young people would not find much to like about either political party or politics itself.
It’s not helping Trump, that’s for sure. But it may not help Democrats either:
For Democrats, the concern is that they need to win the trust of these young people back. 18- to 30- year olds tell Harvard they have an even worse impression of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. That will matter in the next election, when the question will not be “do you like Trump?” but “who do you want to vote for?”
But equally, it’s easy to see how 4 more years of disastrous policy for young people could see the Republicans suffer the same fate Harris did in 2024. If young people are mostly just elastic, anti-system voters, then the young Trump converts in 2024 aren’t really MAGA Republicans so much as stressed-out, ideologically unaware, alienated young adults, in want of a party.
The Democrats really are the only viable party for young people and I hope they find a way to speak compellingly to their needs. It’s guaranteed that the Republicans won’t do it through anything tangible — their only message is hate. Unfortunately, if things get really tough that could be a message that resonates. It has in the past.