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Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

Back Online From Asheville

Published by Tom Sullivan on October 4, 2024

What did I miss?

It’s been a week. Thursday was the first day since the morning Helene’s winds hit that I’ve been able to load web pages. (An email bleep from the phone at 5:30 a.m. announced the news.) I thought I’d be able to provide a more coherent update this morning but the signal that was strong here yesterday is weaker this morning. I’m just beginning to see images those of you outside have seen all week. Friends who live on ridgetops seem to have had better luck. I see now that they’ve been on FB for a few days. Asheville Watchdog has an explainer for why cell service went out across WNC.

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So I’ve been in a news blackout since early last Friday morning except for local public radio. That’s filled with daily press conferences (and repeats) and updates from officials from ours and surrounding counties. The local volunteer effort has been massive.

This is an effort led by my friend, our Register of Deeds.

You know it’s a disaster zone when World Central Kitchen shows up. I’ve donated to them for years (hint, hint). Never expected to be eating their food. Brought WCK meals back to an aging neighbor who’d been eating bologna out of his five-day-dead refrigerator. (His power is back. Mine is not.)

Digby passed along this post from José Andrés about some of the disinfo that’s going around. And conspiracy theories. Ex: Why did it take FEMA days to get here? The mayor reports FEMA had boots on the ground last Thursday before the storm hit.

I expect what this dude above says he’s done he’s done. That doesn’t mean no one else is busy bringing rescue and relief supplies to people stuck in remote coves cut off by road. But there are thousands of those scattered across 25 counties (1/4 of the state). If he and his buddies are the first to arrive at one, good on them. But I’ve seen Chinooks and Blackhawks in the skies for days as well as civilian choppers. The effort is massive. WCK is loading SUVs full of meals and delivering them I know not where across the county and the region (by helicopter as well).

I can’t speak for those cut off in remote valleys. Or for my friend, Canton’s Mayor Zeb Smathers (about a half hour west). But a few personal observations from a guy in the most accessible city in the region. Friends and relatives keep offering aid. How can we help? What do you need?

People want to help. That’s wonderful. But unless you have special skills in disaster relief, your best bet is to stay home and donate to some of the relief groups Digby linked to. We’re already awash in relief supplies on street corners and in parking lots.

To avoid a darkened traffic signal the other day, I cut through a closed Fresh Market parking lot. There were two tractor trailers filled with cases of bottled water volunteers were giving out. A guy practically threw a case at me. (I now have four cases of bottled water I haven’t touched.)

There are pallets of water at Home Depot (it’s open and powered up). A religious group had trailers parked in their lot. One of their volunteers offered me a meal from a stack in her shopping cart. I felt bad not taking one. I’d just had lunch courtesy of José Andrés and my own past donations. And I’m pretty sure that was President Joe Biden and Gov. Roy Cooper who flew over in an Osprey flanked by gunships.

The grocery stores here in town are opening back up. The real needs are in remote areas you won’t help by sending supplies into the city except to shelters and collection points for them. Donate to the people who know what’s needed instead.

Otherwise, Asheville’s water system is down for weeks. “Catastrophically damaged.” So back to bottled water. Relatives and friends want to send in bottled water. The real water problem is for flushing and bathing and washing clothes. And unless you can install a spring in my front yard, bottles of water won’t help. We’re out collecting flushing and bathing water in containers filled from lakes, springs and drain pipes.

And I sprained my right foot while canvassing last week just before the rains arrived. So I’m not much good for volunteerism requiring much lifting, walking or standing just now. It’s been a week.

The Boss Puts It Well

Published by digby on October 3, 2024

Not that it’s a surprise he would do it but it’s an especially good one.

A Glimpse Into The Future

Published by digby on October 3, 2024

If we elect Trump

Trump has been lying about the Biden administration’s response to Hurricane Helene, claiming that they are ignoring Republican areas to favor their own voters. It’s nonsense of course.

But E&E News by Politico has found new evidence that that is exactly what Trump did when was president:

But a review of Trump’s record by POLITICO’s E&E News and interviews with two former Trump White House officials show that the former president was flagrantly partisan at times in response to disasters and on at least three occasions hesitated to give disaster aid to areas he considered politically hostile or ordered special treatment for pro-Trump states.

Mark Harvey, who was Trump’s senior director for resilience policy on the National Security Council staff, told E&E News on Wednesday that Trump initially refused to approve disaster aid for California after deadly wildfires in 2018 because of the state’s Democratic leanings.

But Harvey said Trump changed his mind after Harvey pulled voting results to show him that heavily damaged Orange County, California, had more Trump supporters than the entire state of Iowa.

“We went as far as looking up how many votes he got in those impacted areas … to show him these are people who voted for you,” said Harvey, who recently endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris alongside more than 100 other Republican former national security officials.

The exchange — not previously reported — drew a dumbfounded response on social media Thursday from President Joe Biden, who summed up Trump’s attitude as: “You can’t only help those in need if they voted for you.”

“It’s the most basic part of being president, and this guy knows nothing about it,” Biden posted on X, reacting to a tweet about an earlier version of this article.

You know he will do it next time. He is their retribution.

The Consequences Of Magamania

Published by digby on October 3, 2024

The law comes for a true believer:

The former Mesa, Colorado Clerk who was in charge of administering the 2020 election in that county was sentenced today by Judge Matthew Barrett to a total of 9 years in prison for illegally hacking voting systems in her care and tampering with voting data. 

Peters is a close ally and friend of Mike Lindell and was carrying out her efforts to attempt to prove that Donald Trump won the 2020 election due to fraud with voting machines. Despite being the person who facilitated, encouraged, and initiated Peters’s criminal conduct, Lindell was conspicuously absent from the hearing and did not speak on her behalf.

Peters was convicted by a jury in August of 7 of the 10 criminal counts against her. Peters allowed access to confidential voter data to private individuals affiliated with Lindell, one illegally entered into the offices using the identity of authorized software engineer with the county. The innocent person whose identity was stolen was under investigation for months because of Peters’ fraud. 

Peters remained unrepentant and unapologetic during and after the trial, asserted that she did nothing wrong. Law enforcement investigators, prosecutors, a jury and a judge disagreed. After she was convicted, she claimed that the Deep State rigged her trial because the judge didn’t allow her to present evidence that people in Serbia rigged our 2020 election.

On some level you have to feel sorry for someone like this. She has been brainwashed by MAGA and she foolishly acted on the propaganda she received. On the other hand, this woman has shown herself to be a real piece of work.

A lot of people are paying for Donald Trump’s Big Lie. I wonder if they’re ever going to realize they were duped by the man who is still walking free and may never pay any price for it?

Listen to what the judge said:

Oh Melania…

Published by digby on October 3, 2024

Spare us

Fergawdsakes:

Melania Trump doubled down in her first public response to news of her passionate support for abortion rights, a position starkly at odds with that of her husband, Donald Trump, and the Republican party he leads.

“Individual freedom is a fundamental principle that I safeguard,” the former first lady said in a video released on Thursday. “Without a doubt, there is no room for compromise when it comes to this essential right that all women possess from birth. Individual freedom. What does, ‘My body, my choice’ really mean?”

Set to classical music and posted to social media, Trump’s words were a paraphrase of those in her forthcoming memoir, Melania, which the Guardian revealed on Wednesday.

On the page, Trump says: “It is imperative to guarantee that women have autonomy in deciding their preference of having children, based on their own convictions, free from any intervention or pressure from the government.

As Trump said when they came to tell him that Mike Pence was in danger: “so what?”

Melania Trump believes in nothing, She’s been missing in action for the past 3 years and has come out now to grift and sell her book. I’m quite sure the campaign said, “hey Melania, put in you book that you’re pro-choice, ok? It might help with the bitches.” I’m sure she said “I really don’t care, do u?”

This is actually an old GOP ploy. Back in the day Barbara and Laura Bush were always coy about their abortion position. It was clearly a tactic to try to dog whistle some pro-choice Republicans into believing their husbands weren’t as hard core as they seemed.

But that was before the Republicans caught the car. They can’t finesse this issue anymore knowing that the right is protected under the Constitution. And nobody takes Melania Trump seriously about anything.

Somebody’s Cranky

Published by digby on October 3, 2024

Luckily he has his Truth Social binky

Trump had a bad night after the Jack Smith brief was released.

Then he ran over to News Nation to whine some more:

“He’s a deranged person,” Trump said of Special Counsel Jack Smith. “He just lost the big documents case, that was the biggest of them all.” In August, Smith formally filed to appeal a district court judge’s dismissal of the case in July.

“This was a weaponization of government and this is why it was released 30 days before the election,” Trump said. “And it’s nothing new in there, by the way, nothing new. They rigged the election. I didn’t rig the election. They rigged the election.” He repeated those claims numerous times throughout.

The former president criticized Smith for releasing the documents despite the fact he claimed he was nonplussed over the information. “They should have never allowed the information to come before the public,” he said, adding, “My poll numbers have gone up instead of down. It is pure election interference.”

His poll numbers have not gone up but he needs to say it to soothe himself and convince his cult followers that the election was rigged if he loses again.

As I wrote in the previous post, it’s doubtful that any of this will make the slightest dent in his MAGA support. He literally could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose them. But there are independents and some still squishy Liz Cheney Republicans who hate the January 6th stuff and are being reminded of just what a miscreant he is.

They’ll Never Believe It

Published by digby on October 3, 2024

Many Republicans just refuse to believe their own eyes. And those that do believe their own eyes apparently don’t give a damn that Trump tried to overturn an election and incited an insurrection.

Philip Bump at the WaPo takes a look at why that might be:

Why don’t Republicans think the statement about Georgia — referring to a conversation in which Trump said that he wanted officials to “find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have” — is believable? Perhaps in part because right-wing media hasn’t spent a lot of time talking about Trump’s actions. That includes limited coverage of the House select committee, and it includes less coverage of things like the Georgia call.

Trump’s request to the officials has often been summarized as his asking them to “find 11,000 votes.” Since January 2021, when The Post first reported on the call, there have been 475 15-second segments on the three most popular cable news channels in which those words appear. Only 44 of them were on Fox News.

When Fox News has covered the Georgia call, as it did more frequently in August 2023 at the time that Trump was indicted in the state, it has often done so in a way that’s overtly sympathetic to Trump’s position.

Judge Jeanine Pirro said, “If you say, ‘Look, I need to find 11,000 votes. That’s very different from saying, ‘I need you to find 11,000 votes somewhere.’”

???? Talk about dancing on the head of a pin.

CNN polls show that “7 in 10 [Republicans] have consistently said they thought the election wasn’t legitimate. The only change has been that, in January 2021, more than half said there was solid evidence to that effect. Now, far more are likely to say that this is only their suspicion.”

Bump continues:

Trump’s supporters and members of his party have excused his actions from the outset. In January 2021, Monmouth University asked Americans whether they approved of the House impeaching Trump for his post-2020 efforts. Most Americans said they did — but only 3 in 10 Republicans agreed. In polling conducted by Pew Research Center earlier this year — after more than four years of additional evidence coming to light, about half of Republicans said Trump did nothing wrong in his efforts to subvert the last election.

It’s those kinds of findings that make me despair about this country. Nothing he does will separate these people from Dear Leader:

This pattern is very much in keeping with polling over Trump’s presidency. Views of Trump’s actions didn’t change over the course of the Russia investigation or over the course of his first impeachment, with Republicans generally unmoved by the aggregation of evidence against him. The 2020 response was no different. The argument from Trump critics that his actions subverted democracy simply haven’t gotten traction from members of his party willing to excuse them.

He can literally do no wrong with these people.

How do you deprogram 40 million people from a cult?

Trump Benefits Once Again

Published by digby on October 3, 2024

I realize there’s a lot going on. But the future of the nation, possibly the world, is on the line in this election and it is the most important story right now even with the middle east on fire and a major disaster in the southeast. It’s not old news.

This is why the NY Times is getting such blowback. It’s not generally the reporting itself, much of which is as great as ever. It’s the editorial decision making that’s the problem. The headlines, the reflexive “both sides” framing, the way they downplay the Trump story because he’s been behaving like a monstrous cretin for years so they are inured to it. It’s not just them but as the paper of record it looms large.

That Clinton front page arguably brought us Trump in 2016. The coverage of that penny ante email scandal, breaking when it did, was so over the top that people were convinced she was uniquely corrupt and unfit to be president. Look what that got us. Now they are “adjusting” by downplaying the monumental crimes and corruption of the man who is uniquely corrupt and unfit to be president — the same man who benefited from their skewed coverage eight years ago.

It shouldn’t be hard for the press to care about preserving democracy. Their survival, and ours, depends on it.

I Love The Smell Of Hopium In The Morning

Published by digby on October 3, 2024

You’ll recall that a few weeks ago I wrote about Thomas Miller, the data scientist who has a different way of measuring voter sentiment based upon the betting markets and some other things. His method has been quite successful over the past few cycles apparently. It seems like more soothsaying mumbo jumbo to me, to be honest but as we try to get through this next month I figure it can’t hurt to add it to the polling parlor game.

Here’s what he’s saying right now: Harris has a lead in the electoral college and it’s pretty solid:

Miller found that the campaign’s turning point was Trump’s appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists convention on July 31, when he suggested that Harris had mislead voters about her race. Prior to that gaffe, Trump was running at around 290 electoral votes, 20 more than the number needed to win. The day following the NABJ event, Harris bolted into the lead, and she’s stayed in front ever since. Trump briefly pulled nearly even just before their debate on September 10. Days earlier, Trump got a lift, courtesy of a New York State judge’s decision on to delay sentencing in the GOP standard-bearer’s hush money case until after the election. “On September 10, Trump stood at 261, only 9 short of a win, and Harris had 277,” says Miller. “By the end of the day, Harris had added 35 to get to 312.” Miller also credits Taylor Swift’s endorsement, delivered moments after the candidates left the stage, for giving Harris an added boost.

Harris’ electoral count soared over the next two weeks, climbing to a high point of 337 electoral votes by September 20.

Since Harris achieved that summit, her electoral count has fallen from nearly 340 to the current 302, and Trump’s rebounded from just 201 to 236. But for Miller, that shift doesn’t indicate that Trump’s staging a comeback. He notes that for the past week that spans the VP debate, Harris’ position’s been consistent at just over 300 electoral votes. Most of all, he says, the bettors’ views of who will prevail seem locked in place. And for Trump to regain the White House, a huge share of wagerers must move to his camp.

“I don’t regard Harris’ drop as significant,” says Miller. “Investors in the predictions markets sometimes change their minds, but not many of them are doing that.” He points to the low volumes on PredictIT. “The last time we saw a spike was at the moment of the debate and Swift endorsement,” he adds. “There was a little uptick for Trump after the VP debate, but the last significant event for moving the odds was the presidential debate. Now, most people aren’t changing their bets, they’re keeping their contracts in place.”

By basic electoral math, says Miller, Harris as of today holds a lock on most of the big swing states, looking like a sure winner in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. He adds that Harris also had Georgia in her column when she reached 337 EVs at the apex of her post-debate climb on September 20. Now, he says the modest Trump bump has put the Peach State back in play, and that Trump also stands a good chance in North Carolina. But for now, the states that have loomed as most pivotal since the race began remain beyond his reach.

The world’s gotten a lot more dangerous in the last few days as the dock workers’ strike threatens to hike the likes of grocery prices and the mideast teeters on the brink of widespread warfare. Big events could still change the course of this election. But for now, Harris is in command, says Miller. The betting sites get it, and predictably, the polls lag far behind the curve. According to the bettors, Trump blew a nice lead by stumbling before the NABJ and botched a budding comeback by floundering at the debate. He may need a watershed moment or a Harris screwup to turn the race around. It could happen. But the bettors doubt it will happen, and as Miller’s shown, the bettors are best at cutting through the fog of polling and pundits, and getting elections right.

Remember, nobody knows nothin’. The polling is dicey and this is probably even dicier. This election is inexplicably close and there is a lot going on. Certainly, Donald Trump did not want people to be talking about January 6th right now. And Harris didn’t need a longshoreman strike as an October surprise. But if you are a poll addict, as I am, consider this a little methadone (hopedone?) for the morning. I won’t get you high but you might feel a little bit better.

Whoa. The J6 Prosecution Case Unveiled

Published by digby on October 2, 2024

Some of it, at least

That was last night. This is today:

Special counsel Jack Smith has outlined new details of former President Donald Trump and his allies’ sweeping and “increasingly desperate” efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, in a blockbuster court filing Wednesday aimed at defending Smith’s prosecution of Trump following the Supreme Court’s July immunity ruling.

Trump intentionally lied to the public, state election officials, and his own vice president in an effort to cling to power after losing the election, while privately describing some of the claims of election fraud as “crazy,” prosecutors alleged in the 165-page filing.

“When the defendant lost the 2020 presidential election, he resorted to crimes to try to stay in office,” the filing said. “With private co-conspirators, the defendant launched a series of increasingly desperate plans to overturn the legitimate election results in seven states that he had lost.”

When Trump’s effort to overturn the election through lawsuits and fraudulent electors failed to change the outcome of the election, prosecutors allege that the former president fomented violence, with prosecutors describing Trump as directly responsible for “the tinderbox that he purposely ignited on January 6.”

“The defendant also knew that he had only one last hope to prevent Biden’s certification as President: the large and angry crowd standing in front of him. So for more than an hour, the defendant delivered a speech designed to inflame his supporters and motivate them to march to the Capitol,” Smith wrote.

The lengthy filing — which includes an 80-page summary of the evidence gathered by investigators — outlines multiple instances in which Trump allegedly heard from advisers who disproved his allegations, yet continued to spread his claims of outcome-determinative voter fraud, prosecutors said.

“It doesn’t matter if you won or lost the election. You still have to fight like hell,” Trump allegedly told members of his family following the 2020 election, the filing said.

“It doesn’t matter if you won or lost the election. You still have to fight like hell.”

Yowza:

The redacted brief, made public by Judge Tanya S. Chutkan of the Federal District Court in Washington, adds new details to the already extensive public record of how Mr. Trump lost the race but attempted nonetheless to cling to power.

Part of the brief focuses, for example, on a social media post that Mr. Trump sent on the afternoon of the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, telling supporters that Vice President Mike Pence had let them all down. Mr. Smith laid out extensive arguments for why that post on Twitter should be considered an unofficial act of a desperate losing candidate, rather than the official act of a president that would be considered immune from prosecution under a landmark Supreme Court ruling this summer.

After Mr. Trump’s Twitter post focused the enraged mob’s attention on harming Mr. Pence and the Secret Service took the vice president to a secure location, an aide rushed into the dining room off the Oval Office where Mr. Trump was watching television. The aide alerted him to the developing situation, in the hope that Mr. Trump would then take action to ensure Mr. Pence’s safety.

Instead, Mr. Trump looked at the aide and said only, “So what?” according to grand jury testimony newly disclosed in the brief.

Hey JD. Do you think he’d treat you any differently? You’ve sold your soul and he won’t give it back