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Nancy Mace competes for the title of looniest House GOPer

And she might just win it

There’s a new “crazy Nancy” in town and she is very, very weird:

When former President Donald Trump lined up his top supporters at a hot and sticky rally in South Carolina’s Lowcountry two weeks ago, one of the state’s most visible GOP politicians was notably not in attendance.

Despite her ubiquity on TV and social media, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) wasn’t even an intro speaker.

In a sense, Mace’s absence wasn’t surprising. In 2021, her first year in office, she went from harshly criticizing Trump over Jan. 6 to groveling in a self-filmed video in front of Trump Tower after the former president endorsed her 2022 primary challenger, Katie Arrington.

A week after the South Carolina rally, Mace’s vote to end Kevin McCarthy’s speakership—and her confusing justification for it—may have obliterated whatever relationships she had left in the GOP.

Yet, Mace has been privately telling Republicans that she has a real shot at being named Trump’s vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election, according to six Republicans familiar with the discussions.

Three South Carolina Republicans also said they’ve heard about Mace floating herself as a VP pick, dating back to the early summer.

Given their history, the idea sounds absurd to people who know Trump and Mace. A source close to Trump said the former president “absolutely hates Nancy Mace,” while a former senior aide to the congresswoman put it more bluntly.

“I would see Trump pick [Mike] Pence before he picks Mace,” the former staffer said.

[…]

The two Republicans share something in common that could help explain some of the veep chatter: Chris LaCivita, the top Trump 2024 campaign adviser who happens to be Mace’s former political strategist.

After Mace’s 2020 victory over former Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-SC), LaCivita wrote a blog post for FP1 Strategies, where he used to be a consultant, titled: “Nancy Mace: The Most Daring & Successful Tactic of 2020.”

“Nancy Mace is in Congress today because she had the courage of her own convictions and used her knowledge of her district to guide her decision-making rather than heeding the warnings of D.C. campaign operatives,” LaCivita gushed in the post, a copy of which The Daily Beast reviewed.

Now, some Republicans credit LaCivita with helping Mace emerge as an unlikely defender of the former president in the depths of his legal quagmire. She’s also been a frequent advocate of Republicans’ impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, launched this summer.

“He put her name out there,” a source familiar with the Mace VP discussions told The Daily Beast.

Noting that Trump endorsed a challenger to Mace in 2022, the source continued that the former president “can’t stand her” and “has never really trusted her.”

Despite Mace disavowing Trump after the Jan. 6 insurrection, and given her ties to fellow South Carolinians Nikki Haley and Tim Scott in the 2024 field—which she’s described as a “love triangle”—LaCivita has been seen as a Mace ally in Trumpworld when few others have been willing to go to bat for her.

LaCivita denied pushing Mace as a veep candidate. “I was a former consultant for Rep. Mace—but it ends there,” LaCivita said in a statement to The Daily Beast. “Any suggestion or rumor that I have been advocating for anyone as VP is complete horseshit. The pick of a vice presidential candidate is President Trump’s, and President Trump’s alone.”

Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung also responded to the reporting, saying, “None of these so-called sources know what they’re talking about. If they spent half the time spreading untrue stories as they do on their mental health, they’d be much happier people.”

[…]

While she has sometimes positioned herself as a moderate, in voting to oust McCarthy, Mace has aligned herself with Trumpworld figures like Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Steve Bannon. Since her pivotal vote, Mace has tried to tap their grassroots supporters for donations by casting herself as an enemy of the establishment. Many Republican officials and operatives are indeed furious with Mace, but mostly because they believe she is only motivated by attention.

Their case was not weakened when she walked into a GOP conference on Tuesday wearing a shirt with a literal scarlet letter to make a statement on “being demonized for my vote and for my voice.”

She is a bizarre figure by normal political standards but she fits right in the MAGA universe.

Where do they find these people?

Some good reads

There is a ton of good writing out there on the war in Israel. It’s so fraught with emotion and complex morality that it’s hard to keep up. I admit that I’m starting to flag a bit. There have also been some good television discusions. This was one of them and I’m glad Josh Marshall caught it:

Here are a few links I’ve bookmarked. I don’t endorse all the ideas within them necessarily but they’re all thoughtful and interesting:

The NRRB: Heading toward a second Nakba
Dissent: Toward a humane left
The Nation: The Catastrophic Moral Failing of Those Who Won’t Condemn Hamas
Haaretz: Israel’s new concept of Hamas and Gaza is doomed to fail just like the last one
NYT Kristof: Seeking a Moral Compass in Gaza’s War
NYT Goldberg: The Massacre in Israel and the Need for a Decent Left
The Guardian: How should the US respond to the Israel-Palestine crisis? Our panel weighs in Noura Erakat, Alex Kane, Joshua Leifer, Libby Lenkinski, Yousef Munayyer and Diala Shamas
The NYT guest essay: I’m Going to War for Israel. Palestinians Are Not My Enemy
The Atlantic: Israel Is Walking Into a Trap

I found this NYT article today called “Israel, Gaza and the Laws of War: International law offers a framework for how to analyze what is happening” to be particularly helpful in trying to reason my way through a situation in which civilians are being targeted and/or caught in the crossfire by both sides:

It can be difficult to hold onto reason through the fog of grief that is the natural response to what has occurred in recent days in Israel and Gaza.

But international law offers a framework for how to analyze what is happening, even while atrocities and deaths from the Hamas incursion are still being documented, and the consequences of Israel’s siege and airstrikes on the crowded Gaza Strip, home to millions of civilians, continue to unfold. New information is coming out every day. Details will take time to verify, misinformation is already widespread, and it can be easy to get bogged down in debates over unconfirmed allegations. The laws of war offer a guide to what matters most, and to what should happen next.

Two principles are particularly helpful. The first is that the “why” and the “how” of war are separate legal questions. The justice or injustice of a cause of war does not change the obligation to fight it according to the rules of humanitarian law.

The second, related principle, from which much of humanitarian law derives, is that civilians are entitled to protection. Armies and other armed groups cannot target them directly. Nor can they disproportionately harm them in the course of pursuing legitimate military goals. And those obligations still apply even if the other side violates them by targeting civilians themselves.

‘Protections for human beings’

The origins of the law of war go back centuries. But its modern form was a reaction to the world wars of the 20th century. In 1928, the Kellogg-Briand Pact, an international treaty, outlawed most forms of war. It was followed by the U.N. Charter of 1945, which clarified the ban on aggressive war, the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and 1977, and the further development of international criminal law in the second half of the 20th century, leading to the establishment of the International Criminal Court in 2002.

The law governing when states can use military force is known as “jus ad bellum,” a Latin term that refers to the law regulating the use of force internationally.

Today, this law is very strict, essentially forbidding states to use force against each other except in self-defense, said Oona Hathaway, a professor at Yale Law School and co-author of “The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World.”

“It used to be the case that states could go to war for pretty much any reason,” Hathaway said. “They could go to war for debt collection. They could go to war, you know, to respond to wife stealing. They could go to war because other side is interfering with their trade relations. But that is no longer true.”

But regardless of whether there are legitimate grounds to use force, she said, all parties to the conflict are still expected to follow the humanitarian laws governing the conduct of the war itself, known as “jus in bello” — law regulating the conduct of hostilities.

Anyone who has spent much time on social media recently will have seen people conflate the justness of the conflict itself with the justness of the way it is being conducted. Some have appeared to excuse the killing of Israeli civilians on the basis that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories is wrong, while others appeared to dismiss the killing of Palestinian civilians in airstrikes on the grounds that Israel is right to defend itself from attack.

Treating causes and conduct as two separate questions, as the law does, is a way to hold the complexity of war and the political questions that underlie it in clear focus, without losing sight of the shared humanity on all sides.

That same goal guided the development of the laws of war. “International law has traditionally separated the two in an effort to protect people in warfare, no matter the justification for the initial use of force,” said Monica Hakimi, a Columbia Law School professor. “They wanted to make sure that both sides were equally protected in war, so as to make war as humane as possible.”

The core principle of jus in bello is that civilians cannot be targeted for military purposes, or disproportionately harmed as a means to a military end. That’s true regardless of the legality of the underlying conflict, and regardless of whether the opposing side has itself violated humanitarian law.

“The most straightforward way to think about that is just that the protections are protections for human beings,” said Tom Dannenbaum, a professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University who is an expert on humanitarian law.

“Many of those human beings have nothing to do with violations by the state or nonstate armed groups with which they’re somehow connected,” he said. It would not make sense, he said, to reduce or eliminate civilians’ rights in reaction to the behavior of armed groups they do not control.

Civilians under fire

Hamas has killed more than 1,200 Israelis, of whom 222 were soldiers, according to the Israeli government. The civilians killed included young people attending a music festival, babies, children and the elderly.

“There is no question,” Dannenbaum said, that the Hamas assault “involved multiple war crimes and crimes against humanity, some of which are ongoing. Those are not close calls.”

The attackers also took approximately 150 people hostage. Volker Turk, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, said in a statement on Tuesday that the taking of hostages is prohibited by international law, and called on Palestinian armed groups to immediately and unconditionally release all captured civilians.

“Hamas is bound by, but has a practice of violating, the basic provisions of international humanitarian law,” Hakimi said. Acts such as systematic murder and hostage-taking are grave violations of the Geneva Conventions, as well as crimes under international criminal law.

Hamas could not be reached for comment, but Moussa Abu Marzouk, a senior Hamas political official, said that the group “obeys all international and moral laws” in an interview with The Economist on Oct. 10, three days after the attack on Israel.

In the same statement that decried hostage-taking, Turk, the U.N. official, raised grave concerns about Israel’s actions in Gaza. On Monday, Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant had announced a complete siege of the territory, saying that “no electricity, no food, no water, no fuel” would be allowed into the 25 mile-long strip of land that is home to more than two million people, approximately half of whom are under 18.

“The imposition of sieges that endanger the lives of civilians by depriving them of goods essential for their survival is prohibited under international humanitarian law,” Turk said.

Dannenbaum, an expert on siege law, said that the defense minister’s statement appeared to be an unusually clear-cut example of starvation of civilians as a method of warfare, which is considered a violation of international humanitarian law, a crime against humanity and a war crime. (Though, he noted, jurisdiction over some war crimes would depend on whether the conflict is considered inter-state.)

“When you have a blanket, unequivocal, total cutoff of food, water, electricity and fuel, it’s just straightforward,” he said. “Gallant’s statement, explicit, without caveat, and from the top, stands out.”

Ophir Falk, a foreign policy adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, told The New York Times on Thursday: “Israel is acting in complete compliance with international law, and always has.”

Israel has been heavily bombarding Gaza in recent days, part of a campaign against Hamas that a military spokesman said would be “bigger and more severe” than previous actions in the territory.

Under international law, even attacks on legitimate military targets are illegal if they disproportionately harm civilians, Hakimi said.

According to a Thursday statement from Gaza’s health ministry, 1,354 people have been killed by airstrikes since Saturday and 6,049 had been wounded. The previous day, the ministry said that about 60 percent of those injured are women and children. Attacks have targeted hospitals and schools where Israel has claimed that Hamas members were hiding.

Falk, the adviser to Netanyahu, said that questions of the proportionality of harm to civilians were “tactical and operational” matters that he would not discuss, but that Israel was bombing military targets, and always warned civilians that attacks were imminent. However, on Tuesday, Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, an Israeli military spokesman, said that the Israeli Air Force was too stretched to fire the warning strikes — known as “roof knocks” — that it has fired in previous Gaza conflicts to encourage Palestinian civilians to leave an area before it is hit with larger missiles. Gazans say that few warnings have been given.

And because Gaza is under siege and heavy bombardment, civilians have few avenues of escape, even if warned.

“You can have disagreements about whether something is or is not proportional, because you can have disagreements about the value of the military targets,” Hakimi said. However, there are limits to those arguments, she said, saying that it would not be permissible to justify mass civilian casualties by saying that their deaths would shorten the overall conflict, for example.

The question of what is proportional is a balancing test that has to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, she said.


Meanwhile at the Trump trial

His employees are a bunch of Sgt. Schultzes

In case you’re interested in the recent doings of the Trump fraud trial this week, this article in the Daily Best runs down a part of it.

By the way, Trump hasannounced that he plans to attend the tril next week when Michael Cohen is expected to take the stand. I guess hw figures he can bad-vibe him with that mug-shot scowl:

For years, a high-ranking accountant at the Trump Organization was the point man for ensuring that tweaked numbers padded Donald Trump’s wealth on paper.

But when he appeared on the witness stand at the former president’s bank fraud trial last week, the accountant’s supposed finance expertise suddenly vanished into thin air.

Jeffrey McConney, who recently retired as the company’s controller, has spent recent years facing close legal scrutiny.

In 2017state investigators questioned him over the way Trump misused his charity, which was eventually dissolved. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg used McConney’s testimony to convict the Trump Organization of tax fraud last year. And now, New York Attorney General Letitia James’ attorneys are trying to use McConney to prove that the Trump family committed bank fraud and should have their real estate empire revoked of its business licenses and potentially stripped of its assets.

Now, McConney is in a precarious position, because the attorney general’s law enforcement effort also targets him directly. Alongside his former boss, he is a defendant in James’ $250 million lawsuit, given that the accountant was the one who routinely tallied up the estimated values of dozens of Trump properties—many of which were deliberately pumped up.

McConney’s deep familiarity with the Trump Organization and its business strategies made it all the more astounding when, on Friday, Trump’s defense lawyers suddenly took the stance that McConney actually doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

The shocking moment happened when Andrew Amer, special litigation counsel for the attorney general, asked McConney about the way company documents seemed to fake the rent a high-end grocery chain paid at Trump’s building at 40 Wall Street in Manhattan.

“Can we agree, Mr. McConney, that by adding the income from the lease from Dean & DeLuca into your valuation that you double-counted the Dean & DeLuca income in your valuation?” Amer asked.

“Objection, Your Honor,” interjected defense lawyer Jesus Suarez. “Mr. McConney is not a valuation expert. He’s not offered as a valuation expert.”

New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur F. Engoron quickly overruled that objection, but the ridiculous dichotomy was not lost on those in the courtroom.

The idea that the Trump Organization’s long-time bean counter would be oblivious to the inner workings of real estate valuations seemed implausible, given that documents presented at trial showed that he was the key conduit to getting those very valuations compiled into Trump’s annual statements of financial condition.

That paperwork, which was signed off by outside accountants at the firm MazarsUSA, was the reason that financial institutions like Deutsche Bank and Ladder Capital extended hundreds of millions of dollars in loans to Trump. Those funds allowed his company to seal several marquee deals, including the purchase of the Doral golf course in South Florida and the acquisition of the Old Post Office in downtown Washington, which briefly became a Trump hotel.

The inherently contradictory nature of Trump lawyers’ stance on McConney underscored the sharp contrast on display at the ongoing bank fraud trial, where James is trying to bolster a case the judge has already decided has merit while Trump lawyers combat the very premise of the investigation. When investigators point to spreadsheets, the defense either shrugs, appears confused, or claims vastly inflated values are mere differences of opinion.

For days, state investigators have been laying out how the Trump Organization fudged its numbers before turning the books over to its outside accountant Donald Bender at MazarsUSA. There, the firm would sign off on Trump’s personal financial statements and give them the aura of authenticity. It was McConney’s job to prepare the spreadsheets that listed properties, associated bank account totals, and estimated values.

With him on the stand, the AG’s office reviewed the way McConney gathered real estate development valuations as part of his regular job as the company controller. They repeatedly pointed out how he appeared to use omissions to trick Mazars and throw them off the scent of any impropriety.

Take, for example, Trump Park Avenue, a residential building located in an ultra high-end area east of Manhattan’s Central Park. When McConney put together the numbers for the 32-story condo building, his original spreadsheet listed all the units, along with their offering prices and market values.

But McConney admitted to intentionally deleting that last column before sending it over to Mazars—ensuring the outside firm could only see the pie-in-the-sky prices Trump requested, not the market values that reflected what someone would actually pay for those luxury condos.

That sleight of hand added roughly $57 million to Trump’s wealth on paper, math that McConney acknowledged in court.

Then there’s the forested estate in upstate New York called Seven Springs, a failed development project that doubles as Trump’s Bruce Wayne-esque mansion just north of Gotham. Once again, McConney played a central role in fudging the numbers by acting as if seven additional mansions had been greenlit for construction, adding a whopping $161 million to the total value.

And once again, McConney copped to those calculations on the witness stand.

“Were you operating under the assumption when doing this valuation in these two years that approvals had been obtained, all necessarily approvals had been obtained for these seven homes in Bedford?” Amer asked him

“Looking at this now, yes,” McConney responded.

Some of the dodgy math appeared to come from Eric Trump, one of the former president’s sons, who has long served on the Trump Organization’s leadership team.McConney testified that, after a telephone conversation with the Trump company executive in 2013, another section of Seven Springs jumped in value on paper from $25 million to $101 million—even though they couldn’t actually sell the property they claimed to have.

“And he also, by the way, told you that the project was put on hold, right?” Amer asked.

“Yes,” McConney said.

“But you’re still accounting for the profit from those 71 mid-rise units that were put on hold, as if it’s immediately realized as of June 30, 2013, correct?” Amer asked.

“Yes,” McConney responded.

At times, the ex-controller demurred, pointing out that, in fact, there was another department that was really in charge of coming up with asset values. But investigators kept displaying spreadsheets and emails that either bore McConney’s name or were created by him, highlighting his key role in making sure these numbers got in front of the right people to secure those bank loans.

On the standthe accountant claimed to be oblivious to the basic facts about yet another dubious deal of Trump’s with regard to the Seven Springs property, even though it was his job as the company’s controller to oversee the Trump Organization’s books.

This one dealt with the way Trump eventually cut his losses at Seven Springs: by creating a conservation easement on the property, essentially giving up development rights by dedicating the land for natural preservation, in exchange for a tax break.

Though Trump stretched out the tax write-off beyond belief by inflating the land value there, McConney claimed he didn’t even understand what was going on.

“What’s being donated are the development rights, correct?” Amer asked.

“I’ll take your word for that,” McConney responded.

At the trial last week, McConney revealed that he recently retired from the Trump Organization and received just over half of his $500,000 severance package. The detail raised questions about his testimony that were reminiscent of the deal that his direct boss, Allen Weisselberg, got while he was testifying at the company’s criminal tax fraud trial last year.

Although the judge in the current civil trial has already determined that the Trumps, McConney, and Weisselberg engaged in bank fraud and that business licenses should be revoked, the Attorney General still has a long way to go before she can declare total victory. The trial is set to continue until the end of December

Trump Org. CFO Weisselberg testified yesterday that it’s a total coincidence that his $2 million severence package which is contingent on certain assurances of his loyalty matches, almost to the dollar, the $2 million he had to pay in tax-fraud fines and interest last year.  Oh, and he doesn’t know much about the company’s finances either.

By the way, Trump is planning to attend the trial again next week as his former fixer Michael Cohen testifies. I think we probably believes he can pull sme kind of a mobster move by staring at him with the mug shot scowl and somehow intimidate him into backing off his testimony.

Trump and Israel

No one could be more ignorant or self-serving

It seems like only yesterday that then-President Donald Trump appeared before the Republican Jewish Coalition and referred to Benjamin Netanyahu as “your prime minister” despite the fact that, by definition, everyone there was American, not Israeli. It wasn’t a slip of the tongue. Lamenting that American Jews tend to vote more often for Democrats, in the same speech he proclaimed that voting for them again “would cripple our country and very well could leave Israel out there all by yourselves” and then suggested that “maybe you could explain that to some of your people who say ‘Oh, we don’t like tariffs.’” This was happening at the same time as Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., was under fire from the right for suggesting that some American Jews have “dual loyalties,” but somehow Trump didn’t hear any condemnation from his fellow Republicans.

Omar was excoriated for tweeting that the Israel lobby was “all about the benjamins,” but when Trump told a Jewish audience during the 2016 campaign that “you’re not going to support me, because I don’t want your money,” that didn’t cause the GOP to gasp in horror. As usual, if Trump says it it must be OK. (And let’s note that Omar apologized in both instances. Trump has never apologized for anything in his life.)

It has always griped Trump that Jewish Americans didn’t vote for him in large numbers, since he believes he has delivered more for them than any leader in the history of the world. He had tasked his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, with solving all the problems in the Middle East which he apparently believed he’d done by moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and signing the Abraham Accords, a diplomatic normalization agreement between Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. But in 2020, nearly seven in 10 Jewish voters went with Joe Biden.

That’s not a huge surprise; Jewish voters have generally supported Democrats ever since pollsters first started tracking their votes in 1916. That’s not to say there haven’t been plenty of visible and influential Jewish Republicans, but in terms of overall voting patterns, the Democrats have been the political home of the vast majority of American Jews.

But in recent years, Israel has become a top-tier issue for Republicans — not so much because they care deeply about the fortunes of the Israeli people or the future of the Middle East, although some undoubtedly do. They are interested in Israel largely because the single most loyal faction of Republican voters, conservative evangelical Christians, are obsessed with it. As the Washington Post’s Philip Bump reported, a poll by LifeWay Research “found that 80 percent of evangelicals believed that the creation of Israel in 1948 was a fulfillment of biblical prophecy that would bring about Christ’s return.” Pastor Nate Pyle explained how that is supposed to work in simple terms:

What kick-starts the end times into motion is Israel’s political boundaries being reestablished to what God promised the Israelites according to the Bible.

The evangelical base loves Trump more than any other president ever, but not because he shares their beliefs. He obviously doesn’t. And it isn’t just because he signed off on the Federalist Society-endorsed Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade. They really love him for moving the embassy to Jerusalem, which they see as the first step toward Israel rebuilding the Jewish Temple on the Temple Mount, which is understood as a necessary precursor to the End Times as prophesied in the Book of Revelation.

Trump was extremely angry that Netanyahu congratulated Joe Biden after the 2020 election, reportedly saying, “He was very early — like, earlier than most. I haven’t spoken to him since. F**k him.”

Needless to say, Donald Trump doesn’t understand any of that, or or care. Someone told him that other presidents didn’t have the guts to move the embassy, so he did it. But that move, along with withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama, definitely gave him credibility with right-wing Jews and the Israeli government, and Trump seemed to have a lovefest with Netanyahu throughout most of his presidency. Then things went off the rails.

It’s been reported earlier that Trump believed that Netanyahu had upstaged him at a White House event and used the opportunity to campaign for himself. But he was extremely angry that Bibi congratulated Joe Biden after the latter’s 2020 election victory, reportedly saying that Netanyahu “was very early — like, earlier than most. I haven’t spoken to him since. F**k him.” Trump believed that he had been instrumental in Netanyahu’s electoral victory (Israel has had so many recent elections it’s hard to keep track) and wanted him to refuse to acknowledge that Biden had won. Later, Trump told Barak Ravid, whose book “Trump’s Peace: The Abraham Accords and the Reshaping of the Middle East” chronicles the Trump/Netanyahu relationship, that the congratulatory video was the main reason Netanyahu lost his next election: “That hurt him badly with the people of Israel,” Trump said. “As you know, I’m very popular in Israel. I think it hurt him very badly.”

So maybe it’s no surprise that during a Trump rally in Florida this week, the ex-president aired his grievances against Netanyahu in the immediate aftermath of the catastrophic Hamas attack on Israel and the early stages of what’s likely to be a protracted war in Gaza. It’s not like we haven’t seen shockingly bellicose rhetoric from U.S. political leaders in recent days, but at least their comments related to vital matters at hand, with thousands of people killed on both sides and news about atrocities and war crimes running on television 24/7.

Early in his Florida speech, Trump shouted “Barack HUSSEIN Obama!” about half a dozen times for no particular reason. It’s an oldie but a goodie, I guess. He shared a previously untold anecdote, which he admitted might be classified information, about the January 2020 assassination of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, saying, “I’ll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down.” He criticized Israel for its intelligence failures and called Israel’s defense minister a “jerk” for warning Hezbollah, the Iranian-supported militia in Lebanon, not to attack Israel from the north. Hezbollah was “very smart,” he said, and that would clue them in that Israel was weak in that region. (Given their history, it seems extremely likely that Israel and Hezbollah know a lot about each other’s strengths and weaknesses.)

Then he recycled his inane anger at Netanyahu for congratulating Biden and actually proclaimed, “If the election wasn’t rigged there would be nobody even thinking about going into Israel.” The Israeli government was not amused by any of this. Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi said, “We don’t have to bother with him and the nonsense he spouts.” If only that were true here as well.

In Congress, where Republicans continue to turn the U.S. government into a ludicrous and dysfunctional spectacle by staging one tantrum after another, there wasn’t much blowback to Trump’s bizarre and ill-timed comments. They were all a bunch of cowards, as usual.

There are fault lines within both parties on this issue and we’ll see them play out in coming days and weeks. But Donald Trump’s view that everyone is stupid and disloyal to him, and that if only he were president none of this would be happening, isn’t what any serious person believes. That is about as childish and ignorant as you can get, and that man will almost certainly be the Republican nominee for president in next year’s election anyway. If we went out and grabbed someone off the street to discuss the horrific events of the last week, it’s hard to imagine they could sound less informed than this once and possibly future president. 

Update: Some more reporting from Rolling Stone on this subject

In recent days, Trump has had phone calls with various pro-Israel GOP allies and donors who want to know how Trump would handle Israeli-Palestinian matters if reelected, two sources familiar with the matter tell Rolling Stone. Trump has relayed a few ideas he has discussed with policy advisers — including cutting off all aid to Palestinians and encouraging other nations to do the same, as well as capturing and extraditing certain Hamas figures. But during these private conversations, Trump has also spent an inordinate amount of time aggressively trashing Netanyahu. 

In a recurring comment Trump has yet to voice publicly, the former president — and former close ally of the Israeli prime minister — has expressed his strong desire for Netanyahu to be gone by the time Trump would potentially be back in office in 2025, the sources recount. Since Hamas attacked Israel on Saturday, Trump has said Netanyahu should be “impeached” by the Israeli Parliament because the assault — which was preceded by an apparently catastrophic intelligence failure on the part of Netanyahu’s government — occurred on his watch. (Israel’s parliament cannot “impeach” a prime minister in the same way Congress can impeach a president in the United States).  

Trump has also asked multiple longtime advisers if he should now publicly call for Netanyahu to step down as prime minister. Some confidants and allies have recently recommended that he not do it this week, as the dead are still being counted and a major war seems underway. […]

In his own private ranting against Netanyahu, Trump has made it abundantly clear that his fury at Netanyahu is driven more by preexisting personal animus than by the Israeli leader’s performance in office during the Gaza offensive. The former president has derisively compared the “very weak” Netanyahu to the majority of American Jewish voters who support Democratic President Joe Biden, and has assailed Netanyahu’s intelligence and alleged corruption. 

Did I mention that he is an imbecile?

Salon

No foolin’ this time

American voters were crazy enough once before

Cartoon via Mike Luckovich X feed.

Brian Beutler offers thoughts on Donald Trump dissing the Israeli prime minister on Wednesday when Benjamin Netanyahu is down. And Netanyahu is down after the Hamas attack last Saturday per Noga Tarnopolsky at Intelligencer: Netanyahu Is Losing the War at Home.

It wasn’t Israel’s failure to aid in Trump’s drone strike on Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani that soured Trump on the Israeli PM, as Trump’s Florida rally comments suggest. Nor even Netanyahu upstaging Trump at a past White House event.

NBC News:

Trump has long sought to emphasize his appeal to Jewish Americans and has complained when he feels he has not been recognized sufficiently. Even after having left office, Trump has maintained he has done more for Israel and the Middle East than any other U.S. president, holding up the historic peace agreements he forged with Arab nations.

He wants Jewish votes. They owe him. Yet 7 in 10 overall support Democrats.

Beutler writes:

But then I recalled the news I’d tracked in recent days, including Netanyahu’s fulsome praise of Biden, and the mayor of Tel Aviv’s similar expression gratitude, and it hit me: THAT’S what Trump’s mad about. The mere acknowledgement of Biden’s steadfast—I’d call it questionably unquestioning—support for Israel has all but stamped out the MAGA propaganda, limiting its potential to reach and deceive voters who aren’t already part of the cult.

logged that suspicion here, and Politico’s Jonathan Lemire quickly confirmed it—but the revelation went largely unnoticed. When isn’t Trump lashing out at someone he perceives to be disloyal?

We should ignore the temptation to write this off as another ego-driven Trump outburst and grapple seriously with the implications—what does it mean that Trump thought Netanyahu owed him political favors, even now, and is pissed that they weren’t delivered?

The answer is more sinister than selfishness. 

Consider what Trump thought he might get from Netanyahu (what, for all we know, he or an intermediary may have asked for explicitly): He wanted Bibi, beset by events in his own country, to antagonize the U.S. government. To harm Israel’s vital interests, for the solitary purpose of helping Trump in the presidential election. At the very least, Trump wanted Netanyahu to let horrible slanders go uncontested.

We don’t need to imagine hidden entreaties or favors to think Trump seriously expected Netanyahu to play along. It’s a big part of why he was so solicitous of Netanyahu during his administration. And over four years he compiled a record of one-sidedness that (quite unfortunately) made him a popular and influential figure in Israel. Trump may very well be annoyed by this or that (in his remarks he specifically complained of Netanyahu’s supposed ambivalence over a U.S. drone strike that killed Iran’s top security official, Qassim Soleimani, in 2020). But all of that stuff falls low on Trump’s unwritten ledger of political debts. Loyalty to him comes first. Netanyahu, weakened abruptly by the justified wrath of the Israeli population, didn’t deliver. So Trump, in his pathological vindictiveness, fed him to them.

Whatever Trump imagined Netanyahu might do for him in the midst of a mass national trauma, he revealed something more general. It is not just his hope, it is his expectation, that the whole network of autocrats he placated and toadied to during his presidency and afterward will abuse their offices however they can to help him return to power in 2024.

Trump is all about what’s in it for Trump. But you knew that.

Anyone leaning toward Trump who does not needs reminding over and over and over. Fool me once, as George W. Bush mangled the expression:

The first time around, before colluding became a lifestyle for him, Trump had never been president, and thus had weak relationships with foreign leaders, to the extent he had them at all. He knew through back channels that Russia wanted to help his campaign, and he accepted the offer in clumsy ways—“Russia, if you’re listening…” and Don Jr.’s infamous “if it’s what you say, I love it” email, which only surfaced after it was too late.  

Trump’s brazenness, along with his seeming unelectability, suckered Democrats and the rest of the government into under-reacting. The Obama administration approached the congressional leadership during the campaign seeking a public, bipartisan warning about Russian election interference, but bent to Mitch McConnell who sabotaged the united front and threatened to cry foul if Democrats released the statement on their own. He didn’t mind Trump working in concert with Russia and he definitely didn’t want to sign his name to any public admonition that a GOP campaign was up to something so unpatriotic. 

There’s no use second-guessing that decision seven years later, but it’s worth revisiting before Trump secures the GOP presidential nomination for the third time. Now we know he can win; now we know better.

His back against multiple legal walls, Trump is more treacherous (and crazier) than ever.

Burning it down one match at a time

It’s Friday the 13th

Donald Trump’s attorneys this week argued in a Colorado case brought by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) that the Constitution does not prohibit him from running for office. Based on Trump’s Jan. 6 actions, CREW hopes to disqualify Trump from the state’s ballot under the 14th Amendment’s Insurrection Clause prohibiting any officer who has “engaged in insurrection” against the United States from holding a civil, military, or elected office unless approved by a two-thirds majority of the House and Senate.

But this is Donald Trump we’re talking about. And Trump attorneys. They argue the Constitution does not apply to him becuase he never took an oath “to support the Constitution of the United States” per the amendment’s language (Law & Crime):

“Section Three does not apply to President Trump,” the filing reads. “Section Three disqualifies a person from holding office only if he “previously [took] an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State…’ Because President Trump was never a congressman, state legislator, or state officer, Section Three applies only if he was an ‘officer of the United States.’ But as that term was used in Section Three, it did not cover the President.”

[…]

“[T]he Presidential oath, which the framers of the Fourteenth Amendment surely knew, requires the President to swear to ‘preserve, protect and defend’ the Constitution—not ‘to support’ the Constitution,” the motion reads. “Both oaths put a weighty burden on an oath-taker. However, because the framers chose to define the group of people subject to Section Three by an oath to ‘support’ the Constitution of the United States, and not by an oath to “preserve, protect and defend” the Constitution, the framers of the Fourteenth Amendment never intended for it to apply to the President.”

You read that right.

“If they wanted to include the President in the reach of Section Three, they could have done so by expanding the language of which type of oath would bring an ‘officer’ under the strictures of Section Three,” the Monday motion argues. “They did not do so, and no number of semantical arguments will change this simple fact. As such, Section Three does not apply to President Trump.”

Cleanup on Aisle R

Meantime, with military aid urgently needed by allies Ukraine and Israel, and with threats of a widening war in the Middle East, and with funds for running our own country set to run out in days, the Party of Trump is in ccontrol of the U.S. House without a Speaker authorized to bring such measures for a vote in the House. The party’s lunatic fringe ousted Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California from that position ten days ago.

Last night, the apparent frontrunner for the speaker post, House majority leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), withdrew his nomination for lack of support. Scalise narrowly defeated Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio in a caucus vote on Wednesday. He needs 217 votes and saw no path to winning after an hours-long meeting.

NBC News:

Exiting the meeting before it ended, Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., openly fretted that his party’s narrow majority may never find the 217 votes necessary to elect a speaker.

He blasted eight Republican “traitors” — a word he used four times in a hallway interview — who voted with Democrats to remove former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and “put us in this situation.” And if those eight decide to back Scalise, Rogers warned, “then there’s just another eight like them” who could create further trouble.

“The bottom line is we have a very fractured conference, and to limit ourselves to just getting 217 out of our conference, I think, is not a wise path,” Rogers told NBC News, adding that Republicans may “absolutely” need some Democratic votes to elect a speaker.

Once again, the GOP needs Democrats to clean up the mess they created.

Heather Cox Richardson offers additional details:

The Republican chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Mike McCaul of Texas, today told reporters, “Every day that goes by, it gets more dangerous.” He continued:  “I see a lot of threats out there, but one of the biggest threats I see is in that room [pointing to where the Republicans were meeting], because we can’t unify as a conference and put a speaker in the chair together.” 

House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) today said it is “urgently necessary” for the Republicans to “get their act together and elect a Speaker from within their own ranks, as it is the responsibility of the majority party to do, or have traditional Republicans break with the extremists within the House Republican Conference and partner with Democrats on a bipartisan path forward. We are ready, willing, and able to do so. I know there are traditional Republicans who are good women and men who want to see government function, but they are unable to do it within the ranks of their own conference, which is dominated by the extremist wing, and that’s why we continue to extend the hand of bipartisanship to them.”

Journalist Brian Tyler Cohen, who hosts the podcast No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen, summed up the day when he wrote: “The fact that ALL Republicans would rather fight over Scalise (who attended a neo-Nazi event) or Jordan (who allegedly covered up rampant sexual abuse) rather than simply work with Democrats to elect a Speaker says it all.”

Federal prosecutors slapped Trump wannabe, Rep. George Santos of New York, with a 23-count superseding indictment on Tuesday charging him with “‘repeatedly, without their authorization,’ distributing [donors’] money to his and other candidates’ campaigns and to his own bank account.” Santos refuses to resign. His vote is essential for Republicans seeking the speakership.

The most likely Republican to win the party’s 2024 nomination for president (in case you need reminding) is this guy:

In DC Comics, The Joker is the Clown Prince of Crime. In D.C., the title of Clown Prince of Politics is up for grabs. Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner. But he’s hotly pursued by multiple others in Republican ranks.

And should Trump falter, conservatives behind No Labels have a backup plan for thwarting the will of the people.

Opponents of democracy seem to believe that if they throw enough matches at the Constitution it will catch fire eventually.

It’s not as if Senate Democrats don’t have a member under indictment. Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey stands accused not only of bribery but of being a foreign agent for Egypt. But Senate Democrats in numbers have called for his immediate resignation. The Hill reports “Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) on Thursday called on the full Senate to vote on a resolution to expel” Menendez.  

GOP SCOTUS back in business

Gerrymandering is still on their menu. And it’s not going to go down well.

Ian Millhiser on the latest voting rights case before the Court:

The Supreme Court’s Republican-appointed majority spent Wednesday morning seemingly hunting for a reason to uphold a South Carolina congressional map that everyone agrees was gerrymandered to benefit the Republican Party.

The case is Alexander v. South Carolina State Conference of the NAACP.

Under the Supreme Court’s precedents, federal courts are not allowed to hear lawsuits challenging partisan gerrymanders — that is, maps drawn to benefit one political party or the other. But federal courts may hear challenges to racial gerrymanders — maps drawn to minimize the political power of voters of a particular race. A lower court struck down the South Carolina map because it determined that while the state’s GOP-controlled legislature’s goal was to shore up Republican control over the state’s First Congressional District, the legislature did so by excluding Black voters from this district.

In South Carolina, about 90 percent of Black voters prefer Democrats to Republicans. So mapmakers could be quite sure that they were making the First District more Republican every time they removed a Black voter from it.

So, given the Court’s previous rulings, what happens when a legislative map is both a racial gerrymander and a partisan gerrymander, as the lower court found is the case in Alexander? The answer is supposed to be that the map is illegal. As the Supreme Court held in Cooper v. Harris (2017), “the sorting of voters on the grounds of their race remains suspect even if race is meant to function as a proxy for other (including political) characteristics.”

The plaintiffs in Alexander should also benefit from another well-established legal rule. When a trial court determines that a legislative map is an impermissible racial gerrymander, the Court said in Cooper, the lower court’s “findings of fact — most notably, as to whether racial considerations predominated in drawing district lines — are subject to review only for clear error.”

The 2023-2024 SCOTUS term will feature a growing list of cases that could transform the US, its government, and our right to free speech and public safety. We’re tracking them here.

Ian has covered the Supreme Court extensively as a senior correspondent for Vox. Read more of his reporting here.

Appellate courts, including the Supreme Court, may correct a lower court that applies the wrong legal rule in a racial gerrymandering case. But the Supreme Court is supposed to defer to the trial court’s factual determinations regarding how and why a legislative map was drawn the way it was drawn.

Most of the justices, including several of the Court’s Republican appointees, acknowledged during Wednesday’s oral argument that the Supreme Court’s obligation to defer to a trial court’s factual findings places South Carolina in a bind. Justice Clarence Thomas, for example, asked the very first question of John Gore, the former Trump administration lawyer defending South Carolina’s maps, and that question focused on the fact that the Court is supposed to “review this for clear error.”

But after Gore stepped away from the podium, all six of the Court’s Republican appointees appeared determined to find some way to uphold South Carolina’s gerrymander.

The Court appears to be falling back into its normal, partisan pattern in voting rights cases

For years, the Court’s GOP-appointed majority was uniquely hostile toward voting rights plaintiffs — often fabricating new legal rules from nothing in order to weaken laws protecting the right to vote.

In Shelby County v. Holder (2013), for example, the Court’s Republican appointees declared a key provision of the Voting Rights Act unconstitutional based on something called the “‘fundamental principle of equal sovereignty’ among the States” that cannot be found anywhere in the text of the Constitution. The GOP-appointed justices’ decision in Brnovich v. DNC (2021) simply made up a bunch of new limits on the Voting Rights Act, such as a presumption that voting restrictions that were commonplace in 1982 are valid, which also have no basis in any legal text.

Last June, however, the Supreme Court surprised pretty much everyone who follows voting rights litigation when it voted 5-4 to strike down a racially gerrymandered map in Alabama. The Court’s opinion in Allen v. Milligan, the Alabama case, was authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, and joined by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, along with the Court’s three Democratic appointees.

But while Milligan suggested that the Court may be turning away from its hostility to voting rights claims, Wednesday’s argument in Alexander suggests that Milligan could be a one-off.

Many of the GOP-appointed justices spent that argument probing for flaws in the evidence the Alexander plaintiffs raised in the lower court — evidence which shows that race, and not just partisanship, shaped South Carolina’s gerrymandered maps.

While Leah Aden, the lawyer representing those plaintiffs, was at the podium, Justice Samuel Alito behaved like a lawyer for the Republican Party who was cross-examining a hostile witness. He peppered her with questions about whether her side’s expert witnesses used an airtight methodology, and whether the Court should impose new legal requirements on lawyers challenging racial gerrymanders.

Though no justice was as aggressive an advocate for the Republican gerrymander as Alito, he was joined in his questions by Kavanaugh, who repeatedly brought up a white Democratic area that was excluded from the First District, seemingly to suggest that race was not the driving force behind this gerrymander.

There are strong rebuttals to these attacks on the lower court’s factual findings. As Justice Elena Kagan pointed out, the evidence shows that Black Democrats were excluded from the First District at a higher rate than white Democrats. There was also evidence that South Carolina’s mapmakers had to rely on racial data to draw a Republican gerrymander, because it did not have sufficiently reliable data on voters’ partisan preferences to gerrymander the First District without using race as a proxy to identify Democrats.

And, under the clear error rule, it shouldn’t matter whether Alito or Kavanaugh can find flaws in the plaintiffs’ evidence. All that matters is whether the trial court, after looking at all of the evidence in the case, could “plausibly” conclude that the evidence on the plaintiffs’ side was stronger than the state’s evidence.

Meanwhile, some other GOP-appointed justices suggested ways to change the law so that South Carolina will win. Alito and Justice Neil Gorsuch, for example, both suggested that the voting rights plaintiffs should have to produce “alternative maps” that achieve the state legislature’s partisan goal without engaging in racial gerrymandering — effectively requiring the plaintiffs to draw a partisan gerrymander. That would mean that, even if these plaintiffs prevail, Alito and Gorsuch’s Republican Party will retain control of the First District’s US House seat.

Roberts, meanwhile, complained that the lower court relied on “circumstantial evidence,” such as the fact that so many Black voters were moved out of the First District, and the fact that the state did not have reliable partisan voter data, rather than “direct evidence” such as a lawmaker’s admission that the maps were drawn with racist intent. Roberts even suggested that allowing someone to challenge a gerrymander without direct evidence “would be breaking new ground in our voting rights jurisprudence.”

So it sure looks bad for the Alexander plaintiffs, and for voting rights advocates more broadly. It is still possible that the Court will surprise observers in the same way it surprised us in the Milligan case. But, for the GOP-appointed justices, the biggest question in Alexander appears to be whether they should toss out the lower court’s factual findings, or whether they should announce a new legal rule that will permanently hobble all future plaintiffs’ ability to challenge racial gerrymanders.

It also appears that the brief ray of hope the Court gave voting rights advocates in Milligan could soon be extinguished.

Did anyone think they had had a change of heart? I didn’t.

The once and future leader of the free world blabs again

Thank goodness Biden refused him the privilege of getting classified information in the post-presidency

Once again, he shows his casual disregard about classified information. He doesn’t seem to know if he’s sharing it or, more importantly, care. And he thinks that a good time to air his personal grievances with Netanyahu is when Israel is at war and the entire Middle East is on tender hooks.

Bill Sher has the back story:

On Wednesday  Donald Trump held a rally in West Palm Beach, Florida. Considering Palm Beach County has one of the highest concentrations of Jewish people in America, the typical person at a Trump rally is quite conservative, and Israel is now responding to one of deadliest attacks on its soil in history, I think it’s safe to assume many people in the crowd were supportive of Israel’s right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Yet Trump picked this rally, at this moment, to publicly upbraid Netanyahu.

After saying, “We will stand with Israel 100 percent,” he digressed: “I did have a bad experience with Israel, though, when we took out [Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps General Qasem] Soleimani” on January 3, 2020.

As he told the story, he said, “I don’t think this has ever been told. They’ll say, ‘Oh, it’s classified information.’ Well, maybe it is, but I don’t think so.”

He said Israel and the U.S. government were “working together” on plans to kill Soleimani before he could launch attacks on American military installations. (In The Divider, Peter Baker and Susan Glasser report that Trump “gave shifting explanations” for the assassination, and that claims of imminent “attacks of four American embassies” were not “backed up in briefings with congressional leaders” by military and intelligence officials.)

But “the night before it happened,” according to Trump, “I got a call that Israel will not be participating in this attack … I said, I don’t like that, that’s not good.”

Trump said he ordered the American military to proceed without Israel. “We did it, but I’ll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down, that was a very terrible thing … We did the job ourself [sic] and it was absolute precision—magnificent, beautiful job. And then Bibi tried to take credit for it … That didn’t make me feel too good.”

This is not the first time Trump has aired his beef with Netanyahu. In an interview conducted by Axios’s Barak Ravid for his book Trump’s Peace, Trump complained that Netanyahu quickly accepted the results of the 2020 election and publicly congratulated Joe Biden: “The first person who congratulated Joe Biden, because this was an election in dispute, it’s still in dispute. The first person who congratulated me was Bibi Netanyahu, the man that I did more for than any other person I dealt with…Bibi could have stayed quiet. He has made a terrible mistake … I haven’t spoken to him since. Fuck him.”

The relationship was strained before the election. In January 2020, after the Soleimani operation, the two announced a “peace” offer to the Palestinians at the White House, involving $50 billion in commercial investment in a new Palestinian state. Netanyahu was eager to burnish his political standing as Israeli elections loomed, so, according to The Divider, he turned the White House ceremony “into a campaign event, speaking from the podium for a full twenty minutes.”

That wasn’t in the script. “Trump did not like anyone stealing his thunder, especially in his own house,” wrote Baker and Glasser.

“’What the hell was that?’ he demanded of his aides afterward. Trump was doing him a favor, the latest of a whole slew of favors, the president told others, and Netanyahu had upstaged him.”

I haven’t seen a lot of commentary on his rally last night so far today but he went over the line I would have even expected him to to observe. It’s one of the few things I’d have thought might shake some of his cult loose but it doesn’t look as though they’ll ever hear about it.

The NY Times had a few more details of where Trump has been on this. I hadn’t heard him say this before:

He then criticized Israeli intelligence, pointing in part to failures to anticipate and stop Hamas, the Islamic militant group, from executing such a large-scale and devastating attack. “They’ve got to straighten it out,” Mr. Trump said. […]

“If the election wasn’t rigged,” he said, “there would be nobody even thinking about going into Israel.”

[…]

Mr. Trump also criticized Mr. Netanyahu in a Fox News Radio interview that is expected to air on Thursday. In a clip from that interview that aired on television on Wednesday, Mr. Trump said that Mr. Netanyahu “was not prepared and Israel was not prepared.”

He again suggested Israeli intelligence had been deficient, saying, “Thousands of people knew about it and they let this slip by. ”

He’s not wrong. But to go into Florida and say it at this moment, even as he’s complimenting Hezbollah for being very smart (just like Putin, Xi, Kim and all the other despots he admires so greatly) is bizarre, even for him.

The New Republican Establishment

…is the Trump Cult

I think this has been true for years actually but it fully formed once the smoke cleared after January 6th and Trump remained standing as the Dear Leader. It’s been solidifying its power ever since. Nate Cohn in the NY Times:

In the final account, the rise and fall of Kevin McCarthy might read like the familiar tale of a Republican congressional leader toppled by a small but uncompromising right-wing faction.

But even if the story ultimately ends like any other Republican congressional drama in Washington over the last decade, something different and important has already happened: The right wing didn’t just bring down a House speaker — its members also made a credible bid at claiming the gavel for themselves.

A founder of the House Freedom Caucus, Jim Jordan, won 99 votes in the House Republican conference vote Wednesday, good for about 45 percent of congressional Republicans. It wasn’t enough to defeat Steve Scalise, the conservative congressman from Louisiana who still faces a daunting path to the post, but it’s a serious showing — especially for someone whom John Boehner once called a “legislative terrorist.”

For all of the quotes about “inmates running the asylum” in the press over the last decade, the ultraconservative wing of the Republican Party has never won anything like actual power. In January, Andy Biggs won a mere 14 percent of Republicans against Mr. McCarthy in the House Republican conference vote. That’s enough to make life miserable for a speaker with a five-vote majority, but it’s nowhere near leading the caucus. Getting up to 45 percent, on the other hand, starts to make the gavel appear tantalizingly close.

The swelling congressional support for Mr. Jordan didn’t make him speaker, but it might nonetheless herald the emergence of a new, alternative Trumpist governing elite — one authentically loyal to Donald J. Trump’s pugilistic brand of politics, and one that would pose a fundamental challenge to what remains of the beleaguered Republican “establishment.”

As recently as the beginning of the year, this establishment — the party’s traditional Washington governing elite of political leaders, business interests, donors, journalists and so on — looked as if it had almost managed to survive the Trump era. Yes, it was in tatters. Yes, it had to kowtow to Mr. Trump. But by bending the knee, the establishment still held nearly all of the significant — if hardly dominant — positions of power in Washington. Mitch McConnell and Mr. McCarthy still reigned in Congress. The likes of William P. Barr and Elaine Chao still staffed the Trump administration. Donor money continued to flow to mainstream candidates, even if it wasn’t worth as much as a Trump endorsement.

It’s hard to remember now, but there was even a moment earlier this year when Republican politics almost seemed reminiscent of the Obama era. Mr. McCarthy’s fight with the Freedom Caucus over budgetary tactics certainly read like an Obama-era tale. And the likes of Glenn Youngkin and Ron DeSantis seemed to earn the kind of broad praise from activists and donors that made it seem as if post-Trump Republicans had cracked the code to unifying the base and the establishment.

Apparently not. Mr. Trump’s continued dominance of Republican politics has dashed any establishment hopes of a return to the way things were. Instead, his strength has started to pose a more lasting threat to what remains of the old elite, by promoting a group of loyalist outsiders who might soon have the numbers to defeat the insiders at their own game.

Mr. Jordan’s bid for speaker is perhaps the most visible indication of this growing counter-establishment, especially since Mr. Trump’s endorsement may have been a major reason for his strength — but it’s not the only one. There’s the reporting that a second Trump administration would be staffed by conservatives with personal loyalty to Mr. Trump — something that was essentially impossible eight years ago. There’s the transformation of conservative think tanks like the Heritage Foundation into MAGA hotbeds. And there’s also the endorsement race in the presidential primary. With so many Trump loyalists now in the Republican ranks, Mr. Trump almost looks like an establishment candidate. He has an overwhelming lead in endorsements; his rivals have virtually no endorsements at all.

It’s hard to imagine calling someone like Mr. Trump or Mr. Jordan the “establishment,” and they certainly aren’t the actual establishment quite yet. To the extent they threaten to win power, it mainly appears attributable to Mr. Trump. That’s not a sustainable basis for rule in Washington. The usual connection to big donors and business interests isn’t yet so evident, either.

But if Mr. Jordan and Mr. Trump still aren’t the establishment, they’re not mere outsiders anymore. As they build and cement power in Washington, Trumpism’s grip on the Republican Party will only tighten.

I think they’re already there. They just have to and off the rough edges a tiny bit for the low tax, low regulation Big Money Boys to make peace with them. (Their “populism” is all about culture not economics and rich people don’t care about that because they live in their own bubble.) Trumpism now defines the party and the remaining rump of semi-normal Republicans are swiftly becoming the Republicans of the Democratic Neo-conservative movement of the 60s and 70s.