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Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

Back to Nixon

Trump came close in the post-election period. He was going to fire the whole top layer of the DOJ and put in that coup-plotting toady Jeffrey Clark in as Attorney General in order to get the department to back his play to overturn the election. He was talked out of it when the White House lawyers convinced him that that entire executive team in the department would leave and it would affect his public standing.

He would not take that advice today.He’s learned by now that there is no price to pay for maximalism. Next time, he won’t hesitate.

Twitter is a major problem

It turns out that when the owner of the social media site is a narcissistic, control freak, troll the site ends up being a hellhole of lies and propaganda. Who could have guessed?

A handful of influential but unreliable accounts, some of which have been promoted by Elon Musk, are dominating the flow of news on X around the Israel-Hamas war and easily outpacing established mainstream news outlets, according to research published Friday by the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public.

Researchers analyzed viral posts about the conflict during a three-day period starting from the beginning of the attack against Israel on Oct. 7. They concluded that the most popular posts about the crisis revealed how news on the platform is “faster, more disorienting, and potentially more shaped by Musk himself.”

The new work adds data to a swell of recent anecdotal accounts from researchersacademics and journalists who have noted a change for the worse in the way news and information moves and is incentivized on Twitter over the last year, especially since the start of the Israel-Hamas crisis. A separate analysis published Thursday by NewsGuard, a nonpartisan company that tracks false narratives online, found verified accounts were responsible for nearly three-fourths of the most viral misinformation about the Israel-Hamas war on Twitter. 

“That shift is real,” said Mike Caulfield, a research scientist at the University of Washington and lead author of the new report.  

“At its core what we’re looking at here is a different vision of what news is,” Caulfield said. “It’s fast, it’s unvetted, and it’s very often unsourced. And there’s every indication that the shift is not accidental and that it’s part of a vision of what news is going to be on X.”

“The people who are engaged, they probably buy into this vision, but we have doubts that it serves the public well,” he added.

The researchers branded seven high-performing accounts on X as “new elites,” because they have exercised “disproportionate power and influence” over Israel and Hamas news. The “new elites” include: Visegrád 24, a news aggregator run by a right-wing Polish social media marketing agency; Mario Nawfal, a Twitter celebrity known for hosting live audio chats focused on cryptocurrency who was the focus of an NBC News investigation; @spectatorindex, an account self-described as “News, media and data from around the globe,” reportedly operated by an Australian-Muslim medical doctor; @CollinRugg, a co-founder of the conservative site Trending Politics; and @CensoredMen, a 10-month-old account that before pivoting to the Israel-Hamas war primarily posted in support of the misogynist internet influencer Andrew Tate. 

Tweets about the Israel-Hamas war from these accounts outperformed popular news accounts belonging to CNN, The New York Times, the BBC and Reuters, despite having far fewer followers, according to the research (NBC News was not included). Across the research period, tweets about the Israel-Hamas war from well-followed traditional news sources garnered 112 million views over 298 tweets, while tweets from the seven newly influential accounts drew 1.6 billion views across 1,834 tweets. 

The researchers said that changes made by Musk to X had pushed the platform in a new direction.

“This occurs in an environment that has been shorn of many of the ‘credibility signals’ that served to ground users in the past — checkmarks that indicated notability, fact-checks distributed through Twitter Trends, and Twitter/X-based labeling of deceptive content,” the researchers wrote. “Even fundamental affordances of the web — such as simple sourcing through links — have been devalued by the platform, and, perhaps as a result, by the new elites that now direct its users’ attention.”

An emailed request for comment sent to X received an automated response: “Busy now, please check back later.”

Musk has been vocal in both his contempt for the mainstream press and his appreciation of nontraditional news sources. Musk has also called for more content creators to act as  “citizen journalists” and made changes to X that affected traditional news sources, including removing verification badges from journalists and news outlets and throttling the reach of tweets that include links to news websites. 

The researchers found that the “new elites” differed in political persuasion but shared several characteristics. They posted far more than traditional news outlets, used terms like “BREAKING” and emojis like sirens that suggested urgency, and often excluded sourcing for their claims. The most popular posts were often emotionally charged, including footage of the attacks and airstrikes as well as graphic photos and videos of the injured and dead. 

Researchers wrote that the volume of the tweets combined with a dearth of sourcing or context created “the sense of a constant stream of decontextualized anger and violence.”

Another commonality between these new elite accounts is their dramatic increase in followers over the last two years, which may be explained by Musk’s interactions with them. Through following many of these accounts, replying to them, and directly recommending them, researchers wrote, “Musk may be playing a significant role in the increasing prominence of these news-focused sources.”

On several occasions, Musk has interacted or specifically promoted the accounts identified by researchers. In a tweet seen more than 11 million times before he later deleted it, Musk praised two of the anonymous accounts noted by researchers. Both accounts had reputations for false tweets before the Israel-Hamas war.

All of the “new elite” accounts identified by researchers have blue verified badges, a designation that until recently signified an account was notable and authentic, but which now means they pay $8 per month to subscribe to X’s premium service. 

You can’t make this up either

Joe Biden was a private citizen in 2018

Hold that thought (CBS News):

House Republicans released bank records of President Biden’s brother, James Biden, Friday, that they argue raise more questions about whether President Biden personally benefited from his family’s business ventures.

Bank records released by the GOP-led House Committee on Oversight and Accountability revealed a $200,000 personal check paid to Mr.  Biden from his brother, James Biden, and sister-in-law, Sara Biden. The personal check, which was labeled a loan repayment, was issued before Biden’s presidency, on the same date in 2018 when Americore Health LLC, a healthcare company that manages rural hospitals across the United States also wired a $200,000 loan into James Biden’s PNC bank account. 

In video remarks posted to X, Rep. James Comer, the Republican chairman of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee claimed, “Joe Biden’s ability to be paid back by his brother depended on the success of his family’s shady financial dealings.” 

In a bankruptcy filing last year, Americore Health LLC claimed James Biden received hundreds of thousands of dollars in loans from the company on the promise that his last name “could ‘open doors’ and that he could obtain a large investment from the Middle East, based on his political connections.”

There are close to 13,000 registered lobbyists operating in this country. Roughly half of former congressman (and who knows how many former Hill staffers) move from a government paycheck into the lobbying or consulting industry to trade on their political connections. Comer knows more than a few by now.

Most of the press has learned to ignore Comer.

The Comer committee’s mission is to “ensure the efficiency, effectiveness, and accountability of the federal government and all its agencies.” Shoehorn investigating private citizens into that mission statement if you can. Better yet, find a coherent thought in Comer’s statements.

Now watch Comer in action:

Joe Biden was a private citizen in 2018.

This story is all over the far-right internet repeating Comer’s “shady financial dealings” smear of the Biden family. Comer does not elaborate; he need not. Innuendo is doing all the work here.

This from Comer’s “just asking questions” press release:

Did [Joe Biden] know that the same day James Biden wrote him a check for $200,000, James Biden had just received a loan for the exact same amount from business dealings with a company that was in financial distress and failing?

Since we’re “just asking questions,” how many money managers working for financially distressed and failing Wall Street banks received bonus checks far exceeding $200,000 in the wake of the 2008 financial collapse? How many had congressional committees investigating them?

If this statement from Comer is true to form for right-wing propaganda, the whole point is to get the large-font headline. That is, to generate “smoke.” Whether or not there is fire is beside the point. By the time the smoke clears and we find once again that there was never any fire, the news cycle will have moved on. Followup reporting debunking the original allegation appears on page A7 or later. But the memory that there was something-something about Biden and money and shady-shady lives on in people’s heads.

From Swiftboats to birth certificates to Benghazi and “but her emails,” that’s the whole game.

How are things at Mar-a-Lago?

First the Kraken lady, then Kenneth Chesebro

Frank Langella in Dave (1993).

As more dominoes fall, it might look something like this at Casa Insurrection. It won’t be Trump confessing, but one by one he’ll be seeing his friends evaporate. (I can dream, can’t I?)

Clip borrowed from Dave (1993).

Friday Night Soother

Baby Sloth!

In the birdhouse of Schönbrunn Zoo, sloths are undoubtedly the big favorites among the audience. Those who visit them tomorrow, on the occasion of Sloth Day, will experience a small furry surprise. “For the 13th time, we have had offspring among our sloths. A young one was born on August 20th. Initially, it was hidden in the protective fur of the mother, but by now, you can observe the little one well,” announces Simone Haderthauer, zoological department head, with joy. The young one lies on its mother like in a hammock. It will only start hanging independently on branches at about six months old.

Sloth Day was established in 2010 to draw attention to these amazing animals and their habitat. Haderthauer says, “Two-toed sloths spend their lives hanging upside down in trees. Although they are not currently considered threatened, their habitat is steadily shrinking due to the ongoing deforestation of rainforests in South America.” Sloths’ main diet consists of leaves and buds. They spend much of their day dozing to save energy. Schönbrunn Zoo is committed to raising awareness among its visitors for nature and species protection so that sloths and all the other fascinating representatives of the animal kingdom do not disappear from our planet.

Zooborns

Trump Threatened With Jail

The judge in the NY case is big mad:

The judge overseeing Donald Trump’s bank fraud trial threatened to throw the former president in jail—and hit him with punishing fines—for “blatantly” violating a gag order by refusing to delete a website post attacking court staff.

Justice Arthur F. Engoron, striking a serious tone, began Friday at trial by laying out the high stakes and demanding that Trump’s lawyers explain themselves.

“In the current overheated climate, incendiary comments can and in some cases already has, led to serious physical harm and worse. I will now allow the defendants to explain why this blatant violation of the gag order would not result in serious sanctions, including financial sanctions and/or possibly imprisoning him,” Engoron said.

The case that Engoron is presiding over—Trump’s New York bank fraud trial—is a civil matter, meaning jail time wasn’t ever supposed to be in the cards, only stiff fines and a threat to ruin his real estate empire.

But now, Trump appears to be facing a very real threat of spending time in jail if his antics continue.

Defense lawyer Christopher Kise immediately apologized for Trump’s behavior, blaming the 2024 Republican presidential candidate’s bloated “campaign machinery” for simply forgetting to remove a webpage that mirrored the Truth Social post Trump had already deleted.

“There was no intention to evade or circumvent or ignore the order. I assure you that. I just know that this is a very large machine and this is one of the reasons, frankly, I don’t have social media,” Kise said, trying to deflect with some light humor.

“But that’s been taken down. And we don’t have any other… there were no subsequent postings,” Kise added.

The judge didn’t immediately accept that excuse.

“I will take that under advisement, but… Donald Trump is still responsible for the large machine,” Engoron reminded him.

Trump hasn’t said anything about this (yet) although he’s had a lot to say about the “riggers” who are going after him for his attempted coup and complaining about Biden allegedly causing WWIII. But then he’s very busy at the LIV golf tournament at Doral. He’s got a lot on his plate.

Terrorists Within

The wives of Republican congressmen aren’t the only ones MAGA is targeting with threats and intimidation

We already knew they liked to go after cops. But going after their families is a new frontier:

The federal prosecutors who have brought charges against hundreds of Jan. 6 rioters are seeing an uptick in violent threats and harassment directed toward their office, the office’s lead prosecutor told congressional investigators.

Matthew Graves, the U.S. attorney for Washington, said the threats come from around the country and have become “pervasive,” though he did not elaborate on their substance or whether any law enforcement agency is investigating them.

Graves’ comments, documented in a transcript obtained by POLITICO, came in a closed-door interview on Oct. 3 with the House Judiciary Committee about the Hunter Biden probe. In the interview, Republican investigators pressed Graves on allegations that his office refused to assist the U.S. attorney in Delaware who is leading the probe into the president’s son. Graves declined to answer some of the investigators’ questions about his personnel, citing threats to his office.

The threats he described appear to be part of a broader trend of law enforcement officials grappling with security concerns while working on politically charged cases.

Special counsel Jack Smith’s team, which is running two federal prosecutions of Donald Trump, spent nearly $2 million for U.S. marshals protection from November to March, according to a person familiar with the spending granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter. Fani Willis, the Georgia prosecutor leading a separate prosecution of Trump, reported receiving 150 personal threats in the two months following her indictment of the former president and his allies.

And Thomas Sobocinski, an FBI agent connected to the Hunter Biden probe, previously told congressional investigators that law enforcement personnel working on that investigation have faced threats — and that their families have, as well.

“People are trying to fuel the sentiment of stoking ire against these dedicated civil servants,” Graves said in the interview with the House Judiciary investigators. “And you really don’t even know the extent of it because it’s not group affiliated.”

Graves repeatedly declined to name subordinates in his office who were involved in the decision last year not to team up with David Weiss, the Delaware prosecutor who has long been investigating Hunter Biden on tax and gun issues. Linking his deputies to Weiss’ probe could put them at risk, Graves said.

“I’m already dealing with enough threats and harassment of my assistant United States attorneys who are career prosecutors,” he said.

He alluded to unspecified “mitigation measures” that he has put in place to protect himself and other people in his office.

Graves did not describe the source or the nature of the threats. But the most nationally prominent work he’s helmed — by far — stems from the violent breach of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. The Justice Department has charged more than 1,100 people with crimes related to the Jan. 6 attack, and Graves’ office has played a central role in coordinating the nationwide undertaking. A spokesperson for the D.C. U.S. attorney’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, this is what Trump is posting today. And sadly, it’s probably pretty true:

The GOP Must Be So Proud

The “adults” in the room unfortunately keep spitting up their formula

And listen to this hopeless drivel:

They actually think people are going to believe that the Democrats should have saved the man who opented a bogus impeachment inquiry against Joe Biden and eagerly licks Trump’s boots every chance he gets (not to mention the years and years of grotesque lying and derision) from their own right wing freaks? Really? They believe this?

It would be nice is once, the reporters wouold ask them point blank why they believe the Democrats should have saved the Republican speaker from right wing Republicans. How would they explain that?

Your Doom Loop Post OTD

What’s happening in the House is taking us over the cliff

This post by Lee Drutman says it all:

The US House is now in uncharted territory.

Yes, you probably know this from following the ongoing drama over the vacated House speakership. As of this writing, we are now 17 days into this manufactured crisis.

But how uncharted?

And if we’re off the map, where are we headed? And are we off to “There be dragons” land? (Possibly, yes)

In the pixels ahead, I’ll visually map where we are.  As we’ll see, there are some historic parallels. But not enough to feel like we’ve really been here before.  

Here’s what’s distinct about this moment, based on the best metrics we have.

Congress is more polarized than ever.
-The Republican Party is more far-right than ever.
The share of House districts that are truly competitive is tinier than ever (less than 10 percent).
The share of House districts splitting their tickets hit a 100-year low in 2020 (fewer than 4 percent).
Partisan margins in the House are uniquely narrow.
The dimensionality of voting in the House has collapsed into a single dimension.
The Republican Party is growing more internally divided.

To close observers of politics, none of these findings may be that surprising. But I hope by seeing them all together, we can appreciate how unusual this moment is — and just how far we’ve sailed away from the “normal” patterns.

My simple takeaway is: We’re not going back.

So we need to ask: where do we want to head now?

If we are deliberate, we have possibilities. If we are not deliberate, the sea of dragons may chew us into pieces.

So come aboard. We’re going on a data journey.

(The data will cover only the U.S. House of Representatives. Similar patterns hold in the Senate, but since the House is in crisis right now, and the trends are clearer in the House, that is the focus of this piece, which is already long-ish)

He goes on to xplain all this in detail and I highly recommend that you read the whole thing if you’re interested in this subject. I’ll just include some of the charts he uses to illustrate his points here:

I have one final graph, and it describes some very uncharted territory.

Uncharted Territory means we have to invent our own chart of the future

The hard thing about Uncharted Territory is that, being uncharted, it’s really hard to know how where we are headed.

Some aspects of the current moment reflect Rarely Charted Territory. For example, the contentious parallels of 1910 (when insurgent Republicans stripped Speaker Joseph Cannon of his powers) and 1931 (when an evenly divided Congress agreed on a liberal discharge petition rule). To the extent history offers parallels, the most likely outcome would be an end to the strong Speaker model of Congress, and a move back towards a more decentralized, committee-based organizational structure.

However, in those earlier periods, politics was less nationalized, and voting was less one-dimensional. There was still some play in the joints, some flexibility in the coalitions. Today, that seems much less likely. Too many of aspects of this current period are unprecedented.

From my readings into the dynamics of complex systems, the trends (particularly the collapse of dimensionality) suggest a system on the verge of a significant transformation.  The current arrangements feel quite shaky because we are experiencing the tremors of an organizational arrangement that can no longer hold.

If we are truly in uncharted territory, the map of the past offers little advice.

It’s normal to fear the uncharted. This is our natural conservative instinct  —  however imperfect the status quo might be, it at least reflects the accumulated wisdom and traditions of years; most alternatives are likely worse.

 But in this uncharted territory, we are beyond the accumulation of traditions. We are in the unknown, whether we like it or not. And all the signals suggest big change ahead. There is only one option: start thinking creatively about how we might govern ourselves in the years to come. The future, after all, belongs to those who show up with a plan.

Here, of course, is where I cue my song and dance about the need for electoral system reform to Break the Two-Party Doom Loop: Fusion voting and proportional representation, people. We’re in uncharted territory. It’s time to take alternatives seriously while we still have time to consider them.

Again, I highly recommend you read his entire explanation of those charts. But even a cursory observation shows clearly that something is happeneing here. And it probably isn’t good.

Sidney Powell Takes A Plea

Trump and his co-defendants should be worried

There’s a lot going on in the world and here at home at the moment so it’s not surprising that Donald Trump and his legal problems aren’t front and center in our political coverage. Trump himself is very upset by this, lamenting on Truth Social earlier this week that he’s forced to appear at the Courthouse in New York where his fraud trial is being held (he isn’t) and complaining that nobody’s paying attention to him, posting, “despite my being here, the talk is all about Biden getting ready to fly to the Middle East…”

But even though nobody is paying close attention to all his troubles at the moment, there is quite a bit of news on the Trump legal front and some of it may have some very unpleasant consequences for the former president. The fraud trial is not going particularly well for him with his CFO possibly having committed perjury on the stand which could mean his plea deal with the Manhattan Disctrict Attorney in the Trump Organization case is in danger. Weisselberg went to jail for five months in that case but could easily see more time if that’s proven.

Legal filings by Special Prosecutor Jack Smith in both the Mar-a Lago classified documents case and the January 6 case have been flying back and forth and none of them have been particularly helpful to Trump. Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is hearing the January 6th case issued a narrow gag order saying“First Amendment protections yield to the administration of justice and to the protection of witnesses. His presidential candidacy does not give him carte blanche to vilify … public servants who are simply doing their job.” Trump has promised to appeal, no doubt in the hopes of delaying the trial since simply complying with that order would actually be quite easy to do.

The Mar-a-Lago case has turned out to be trickier as most observers expected after it drew the inexperienced Trump appointee (and Federalist Society guru Leonard Leo protege) Judge Aileen Cannon. It appears that she will be helping Trump to drag the case out for months by slow walking her decisions at every turn. But at some point he knows the law is coming for him in that case and it’s a very strong one for the government. He’s hanging his hopes on winning the presidency so he can shut the whole thing down on his very first day.

The big news, however, was Thursday’s guilty plea and cooperation agreement by former Trump campaign lawyer Sidney Powell in the Georgia RICO case just one day before she was scheduled to go on trial with co-defendant Kenneth Chesebro, another former Trump lawyer. Powell agreed to plead guilty on six misdemeanor counts relating to the Coffee County election machine tampering charges and to fully cooperate with the government as these cases go forward.

Powell is the biggest fish to flip in any of these cases so far but it’s unclear whether or not she will be solely testifying as a witness in that Coffee County case or if she is expected to tell what she knows about Trump and Giuliani and the rest of his indicted henchmen’s activities leading up to the January 6th attempted coup. She certainly should have some stories to tell. And in fact, her involvement in that notorious meeting on December 18th, 2022 when the discussions of seizing voting machines was brought up could even be related directly to Coffee County — and Donald Trump was signing off on all kinds of nefarious deeds that night, most of which did not come to fruition, thank God.

According to reporting by Rolling Stone on Thursday night, the Trump team was very surprised at this news. Powell is the most MAGA of all the lawyers for “team crazy” and she was the truest of believers. One source told the magazine, “[Fulton County district attorney Fani Willis and her team] managed to break the woman who was never supposed to be breakable.” But perhaps she isn’t as deluded as they thought. There have been numerous leaks for months now that Powell was likely to be thrown to the wolves:

Before her plea agreement, some of Trump’s legal and political counselors had been working to cast Powell as a “fall guy” in the election-related cases against him and hoped to shovel the criminal exposure and blame for the failed attempt to overturn the election on to her and others, in the hopes of shielding former President Trump

They should be worried. As one former federal prosecutor told The Daily Beast, “One thing to note is just how favorable this plea deal is for her. She’s been permitted to plead guilty to misdemeanors… to get this good of a deal, she really has to know something.”

Her former co-defendant whose trial begins today, Kenneth Chesebro, was reportedly offered a similar deal but refused. He’s had a couple of setbacks as well this week which may make him rethink his strategy. On Wednesday, Judge Scott McAfee, ruled that some of the emails Chesebro wanted to protect as attorney client privilege are actually admissible under the crime-fraud exception, which means they were used in furtherance of a crime under the crime fraud exception. And to make matters worse, The NY Times got a look at some of Chesebro’s emails and they are doozies.

He wrote that the cases they were filing alleging fraud had little chance of success and admitted that the “relevant analysis is political.” He said that just getting it on file means that the Supreme Court will have ruled on it by January 6th or will have “appeared to dodge again” which would give Trum the argument that the courts “lacked the courage to fairly and timely consider the complaints, and justifying a political argument on Jan. 6 that none of the electoral votes from the states with regard to which the judicial process has failed should be counted.” Even more damning, he wrote “I think the odds of action before Jan. 6 will become more favorable if the justices start to fear that there will be ‘wild’ chaos on Jan. 6 unless they rule by then, either way.”

It’s pretty clear that he and his lawyer comrades were not just making legal arguments. They were engaged in plotting a coup which even included attempting to intimidate the US Supreme Court by suggesting that Trump’s “will be wild” invitation was going to cause violence. Perhaps Chesebro is prepared to take the fall for all that but you have to wonder why. It was clearly all of a piece with what Trump was tweeting and bleating through that whole period.

Starting today, Donald Trump is going to have two trials affecting his future taking place at the same time. The case against Kenneth Chesebro is all about him even if his own trial hasn’t started yet. The NY case is ongoing and it’s driving him crazy, mostly because he can’t stand having anyone question his net worth. And that’s just the beginning. The saga of Trump on trial has begun.

Salon

Update: Ken Chesebro pled guilty this morning. Oh my.