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Only the best people

Published by digby on September 30, 2023

The GOP sure knows how to pick them

The Messenger:

In 2013, Joseph Roberts was accused of verbal and online sexual harassment and suspended from Savannah State University. He claimed he was suspended from school and “denied due process.”

Five years later, he’d go on to share his story with Betsy DeVos, then former President Donald Trump’s Secretary of Education, as an advocate for men who were wrongfully accused of sexual misconduct on college campuses.

In 2020, Roberts appeared on YouTube’s The Exceptional Conservative Show, where he recalled the day he was expelled from campus after three unidentified female students reported him.

“They said things like they were afraid for their lives,” Roberts, who left the school just three weeks before graduation, claimed. “It was just total lies.”

More than a decade later, Roberts, 42, was arrested on Sept. 7 in a separate incident for the gruesome death of his girlfriend, Rachel Imani Buckner, a recent law school grad whose dismembered body was discovered wrapped in plastic with duct tape along the shore in California’s Alameda County.

[…]

In 2018, when the #MeToo movement was exploding and the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearing played on TVs across the nation, a debate was roiling about whether men could be wrongfully accused of sexual misconduct.

Roberts appeared on ABC’s Nightline and shared his story, claiming that he was presumed guilty.

He said sharing his story with DeVos in 2018 was a “big deal,” according to ABC News.

Roberts also joined forces with Families Advocating for Campus Equality, a nonprofit that assists the accused who say they’re not being treated fairly.

“The mission of FACE is to support and advocate for equal treatment and due process for those affected by inequitable Title IX campus disciplinary processes, and influence campus culture through outreach and education,” according to the group’s site.

A staunch supporter of Trump, Roberts would enter the political fray while living in San Francisco and attending law school at Golden Gate University — the same school Buckner graduated from before she was killed.

In 2020, Roberts was elected to serve on the San Francisco Republican Party County Central Committee.

A member of the Federalist Society, his main goals were “to bring diverse leadership, primarily conservative thought,” “support the local police department,” and “contribute to a local San Francisco government that promotes policies to unlock individual potential and unleash economic growth,” according to a voters’ website.

You can see why a guy like this would be attracted to the GOP and why they welcomed him with open arms.

RFK Jr goes independent

Published by digby on September 30, 2023

Of course. You knew that.

Environmental lawyer and 2024 presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Friday teased a “major announcement” in upcoming weeks amid speculation he is considering dropping his bid to primary President Joe Biden as a Democrat and instead running for president as an independent or on a third-party ticket.

“I want to tell you now what I’ve come to understand after six months of campaigning: There is a path to victory,” Kennedy said in a video announcing an October 9 event in Philadelphia. “We all recognize that there’s a genuine possibility of national transformation and its source is the goodness in the American people.”

News of the upcoming event, first reported by Mediaite, comes as the super PAC supporting Kennedy’s presidential bid has conducted national polling to gauge his viability in a hypothetical three-person race against Biden and former President Donald Trump, a person familiar with the polling told CNN.

In the two-minute video announcing the event – which was shared with CNN in response to questions about the possibility of Kennedy running as an independent – the presidential candidate criticized corruption in government and on both sides of the aisle. He also called out the “established Washington interests” and said his campaign will “change the habits of American politics.”

“I understand that deeply felt concern that people have about the way corruption has overtaken our government. It’s in the executive branch. It’s in Congress. It’s in the leadership of both political parties,” he added.

In July, Kennedy, an anti-vaccine activist, met Libertarian Party Chair Angela McArdle at an event in Tennessee. They discussed their shared beliefs, including around vaccine mandates and pandemic-era shutdowns, and the two have been in touch since, McArdle told CNN Friday. She said she has not received a commitment from Kennedy to run as a Libertarian Party candidate.

This might not be as bad as Demcrats think:

The American right’s efforts to elevate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. were as transparent as they were cynical. The idea, as advanced by Stephen K. Bannon and the like, was clearly to try to embarrass President Biden in the Democratic primary. So they used Kennedy’s inflated early poll standing as an excuse to treat the primary challenge from a fringe figure as something real and threatening.

Fox News picked up the ball and ran with it, publishing many dozens of stories and featuring him regularly on-air. House Republicans even invited him to testify on Capitol Hill.

It hasn’t worked. And now, it’s looking as if the whole thing could backfire.

The latest indications are that Kennedy will end his Democratic primary challenge against Biden and instead run in the general election. Mediaite reported Friday that he will declare an independent bid on Oct. 9, and Kennedy is now teasing a major announcement on that date, while saying and doing the kinds of things that suggest Mediaite’s report is accurate.

(Asked to comment on whether the report was true, Kennedy’s campaign merely responded with a link to a video previewing his Oct. 9 announcement.)

And while Kennedy is a lifelong Democrat from the country’s preeminent Democratic family, there is plenty of reason to believe that a third-party bid could hurt Donald Trump more than Biden.

There is no good polling that tests a Kennedy third-party bid. What we do know is that Republicans like Kennedy a heck of a lot more than Democrats do. That was true pretty shortly after he launched his campaign in April, and the gap has now grown into a chasm.

The latest polling from Quinnipiac University shows that Republicans like Kennedy by a 30-point margin, 48 percent favorable to 18 percent unfavorable.

Democrats, meanwhile, have developed an overwhelming distaste. The Quinnipiac poll shows just 14 percent have a favorable opinion of him, compared with 57 percent who have an unfavorable one.

The anti-vax faction doesn’t love Trump. And a whole bunch of QAnon people are so addled that they think JFK and JFK Jr are still alive so I could see them voting for Bobby Jr thinking it’s some kind of a sign.

The NY Times had this a couple of months ago:

Speaking at a festival hosted by a libertarian group in New Hampshire, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. railed against the “mainstream media” for serving as “propagandists for the powerful.” Each time he mentioned the perfidy of the press — for silencing dissent, for toeing the government line, for labeling him a conspiracy theorist — he drew a supportive hail of jeers.

It was a page out of the playbook of Donald J. Trump. But for Mr. Kennedy, who is running a long-shot challenge to President Biden for the Democratic nomination for president, it was more than a rhetorical flourish.

Censorship is a central theme of his campaign, uniting an unlikely coalition that includes longtime acolytes in what is known as the “health freedom” movement; donors from Silicon Valley; and new admirers from across the political spectrum.

“The mainstream media that is here today is going to report that I, you know, have paranoid conspiracy theories, which is what they always say, but I’m just going to tell you facts,” Mr. Kennedy said at the event last week. He added, “When the press believes it is their job to protect you from dangerous information, they are manipulating you.”

Indeed, Mr. Kennedy, an environmental lawyer and scion of the storied Kennedy Democratic clan, is now a leading vaccine skeptic and purveyor of conspiracy theories. He has twisted facts about vaccine development by presenting information out of context; embraced unsubstantiated claims that some clouds are chemical agents being spread by the government; and promoted the decades-old theory that the C.I.A. killed his uncle, former President John F. Kennedy.

The idea that the press has a stranglehold on public information is a core, animating belief in the health freedom movement, which broadly opposes regulation of health practices, including vaccinations. Two political action committees supporting Mr. Kennedy were formed by people who knew him through this movement, which accounts for some of his most ardent support.

This whole thing is a Steve Bannon special by the way.

He’s just sure that the Kennedy name is going to draw millions of Democrats who don’t like Biden. He may have made a big mistake. Couldn’t happen to a nice bunch of fascists.

FYI: a little eye-opener

Published by digby on September 30, 2023

Kevin Drum:

A regular reader asks if I can post a chart of gasoline prices over my lifetime. Of course. In fact, I can do better:

I was born right in the middle of that warm postwar summer of ever-declining gasoline prices—which ended abruptly in 1973 with the first oil embargo. And then again in 1979 with the second oil embargo. And again in 2002-08 during the Iraq War. And again in 2011 because of turmoil in the Middle East. And then finally yet again in 2022 thanks to the Ukraine War.

Will gasoline ever get down to $2 again? Probably not. OPEC countries need a higher price than that to avoid bankruptcy. But it will probably recede to $3 one of these days.

I feel as if my whole life I’ve been aware that we are running out of oil and part of that was assuming that the price was going to go up. Obviously, we are now dealing with the crisis of climate change and have an obligation to drastically reduce our use of fossil fuels so we have even more incentive to end our dependence on gas. But throughout the period that Kevin points to I’ve also been listening to people bellyache about the price of gas over and over again when the price goes up due to a shock or a disaster of some sort. It’s tiresome. It’s never been the huge crisis people always say it is and even so it should motivate people to support the use of alternative energy. And that chart shows that the price of gas has been remarkably steady, adjusting for inflation, ever since 1930.

Demented and dumb

Published by digby on September 30, 2023

And they love him more than ever

Tom Sullivan already did a great post on the Trump speech in California yesterday and I can’t think of anything to add. But I do think you should see some more of what he said. It’s truly unbelievable:

 

Cheers from the audience that has been having a full blown hissy fit over the assault on decorum in the Senate if men don’t wear suits.

Here’s some truly demented babble:

And then there was this:

Marge is the most powerful woman in the US congress

Published by digby on September 30, 2023

And that says everything

Betraying Ukraine is her issue. It’s all she’s been talking about and she told her boy MyKevin that there was no way she would ever vote for a bill that contained funding to support it. And as I write this, the only continuing resolution MyKevin believes may pass with all GOP votes is one that keeps everything going except her pet issue — abandoning the Ukrainian people:

Just hours before a government shutdown, the House planned to vote on a measure to keep the government open for 45 days at current spending levels, adding money for U.S. disaster relief but none of the billions of dollars for Ukraine that the White House has sought, Rules Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the bill would pass the House or what its fate in the Senate would be. The government will shut down at 12:01 a.m. Sunday if a deal is not reached.

She is evil. And she is very powerful in the Republican Party right now. She’s no gadfly like Michele Bachman. She’s the real thing.

I don’t know if this will pass. Who know, even some Democrats may vote for it just to keep the government open for 45 days in the hope they can get it back into the spending bills in conference. But appeasing Marjorie Taylor Greene is a mistake. This woman is dangerous and she’s learning how to get what she wants very quickly.

Matt vs MyKevin

Published by digby on September 30, 2023

Politico Playbook took a look at the feud between McCarthy and Gaetz. Nobody really knows why they’re so hostile but whatever it is, it’s definitely personal:

To hear him tell it, Rep. MATT GAETZ is on a good-government crusade. The 41-year-old Florida Republican has railed against continuing resolutions, the short-term spending stopgaps that he blames for Washington’s fiscal dysfunction. He has insisted on regular order for appropriations bills and the devolution of power to the House rank-and-file.

That’s why, he says, he’s spent months relentlessly hounding House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY — to the point that he’s almost certain to lead a charge to remove him in the coming weeks.

Most other House Republicans watching as Congress lurches toward a federal shutdown see something else entirely: “This isn’t a function of him being concerned about process,” Rep. MIKE LAWLER (R-N.Y.) told Playbook. “This is a function of personality.”

“He wants Kevin,” added a Gaetz friend. “That’s it, and everything else revolves around that.”

With less than 48 hours until the shutdown deadline, we thought we’d step back and dive deep on how this one deeply chaotic relationship has evolved and helped shape the present standoff.

Gaetz has by no means done it by himself. But he has harnessed the anti-establishment fervor inside the House GOP like no other member, setting trap after trap for a speaker desperate to please his detractors and keep his job.

Past government shutdowns have been organized around a demand — reversing the Affordable Care Act, for instance, or building a border wall. This one, should it come to pass Sunday, is better understood as being centered on a long, nasty grudge.

The tensions spilled out again yesterday, with Gaetz angrily confronting McCarthy in front of the entire GOP conference, rekindling the question that our Olivia Beavers closely examined yesterday: “What does Matt Gaetz really want?”

As Olivia writes, there’s certainly layers to Gaetz’s recent behavior. He’s reportedly exploring a run for governor, which might compel him to turn his antics up a notch. And he has been persistent in his policy demands of late — never mind that he voted repeatedly for CRs under President DONALD TRUMP.

But the real throughline is Gaetz and McCarthy’s mutual antipathy, according to those who have watched the two men closely in recent years.

“There is something between them, and I don’t know what it is,” Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) told Playbook. “And that’s the impression I’ve gotten from McCarthy, too: It’s not policy-driven; it’s personal.”

COMPETING FOR ATTENTION: Both men brush off the suggestions of animosity. “Matt is Matt,” McCarthy has said. Gaetz says he’s more concerned about McCarthy’s broken promises than any personal issues.

Yet the two have persistently clashed, dating back to Trump’s presidency, when they were engaged in what might be best described as a political love triangle, competing for Trump’s attention and affection. As one former House leadership aide put it to us, “I wouldn’t underestimate the jealousy factor.”

Gaetz would often float ideas to Trump, only to see McCarthy intervene and kill them, according to senior GOP aides on the Hill and in Trump’s White House. During Trump’s first impeachment, for instance, Gaetz publicly pressured McCarthy to name MAGA-minded members to the House Intelligence Committee, which was leading the public hearings.

McCarthy phoned Gaetz and excoriated him for launching a public campaign without a heads-up, according to a lawmaker with knowledge of the situation. McCarthy then convinced Trump that he’d be better served with the members already on the panel, though he ended up subbing in Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), a Trump loyalist.

Another incident from that era was captured in a new memoir written by former Trump White House aide CASSIDY HUTCHINSON. Late at a 2019 Camp David retreat, Hutchinson says Gaetz followed her to a cabin he thought was hers — only to find McCarthy, who had gathered a bunch of Republicans for drinks and conversation.

Gaetz said he was lost, she writes, and prodded Hutchinson to escort him back to his cabin. “Get a life, Matt,” McCarthy said, shutting the door. (Gaetz denies the exchange.)

PUTTING KEVIN IN A BOX: McCarthy has offered olive branches over the years, according to people close to the speaker. He helped Gaetz land seats on the House Armed Services and Judiciary committee, which the Floridian was pining for, according to one senior GOP aide.

But when it came time for McCarthy to fulfill his own ambitions and claim the speaker’s gavel, Gaetz quickly emerged as his fiercest critic — mocking him publicly and leading a conservative revolt that was settled only after four days, 15 ballots and a series of tense episodes on the floor (including one where Rogers lunged at Gaetz).

While other conservatives flipped their votes to McCarthy in exchange for a suite of policy and process promises, Gaetz never once voted for him — agreeing only to vote “present,” passively allowing him to secure the gavel.

Meanwhile, those promises — which reportedly included allowing regular order for the 12 yearly appropriations bills — set the stage for the present showdown. Now McCarthy’s only way out will be to pass a bipartisan CR, reneging on his January deal and empowering Gaetz to seek revenge.

“Gaetz has boxed McCarthy in,” said one senior GOP aide close to McCarthy world. “People think Gaetz is dumb, but he’s fucking smart — he’s really smart.”

But should Gaetz take the next step and move to oust McCarthy from the speaker’s chair, it will not be without risks. Actually removing McCarthy will require Democrats to join the band of rebels, and some Republicans believe that will never happen — instantly rendering Gaetz irrelevant.

“If he wants to, he can keep the attention … and that keeps people asking about him,” said one senior House GOP aide who predicted Gaetz might flinch. “The moment he calls the motion to vacate, the charade is up. It’s put up or shut up.”

Gaetz is probably smarter than McCarthy but that isn’t saying much.

Gaetz is building a MAGA brand. And it’s popular.

Are we really this insane?

Published by Tom Sullivan on September 30, 2023

A time for choosing again

President Joe Biden routinely expresses a kinder, gentler American exceptionalism. “This is the United States of America!” Uncle Joe begins. He tells us there is nothing Americans cannot do if we do it together. How many of us in our accustomed cynicism roll our eyes at the naivete of it? But on the other hand….

Maybe Biden’s sunny vision reflects a defense mechanism that is now part of him. The working-class kid from Scranton who overcame his childhood stutter has confronted so much tragedy in his life, so much deep personal loss. Perhaps his Catholic faith tells Biden there has to be a plan. God has a deep purpose we cannot always see. We just have to have faith. Personally, and as a nation.

Biden’s most likely presidential opponent in 2024 has no faith, endured no sobering personal losses, never learned empathy. Donald Trump was born on third base with a sliver spoon up his ass. And a trust fund in the hundreds of millions. And a father who taught him to get further ahead by cutting ethical corners and standing on other people’s heads.

Trump’s mentor in young adulthood, Sen. Joseph R. McCarthy’s (R-Wis.) legal hit man, taught him ruthlessness: “1. Never settle, never surrender. 2. Counter-attack, counter-sue immediately. 3. No matter what happens, no matter how deeply into the muck you get, claim victory and never admit defeat.”

The Republican Party has since the late-twentieth century longed to return to an imagined golden age of the 1950s, the “great” in the “G” on the MAGA caps. It was a soft-focused time of Ozzie and Harriet, of Ward and June Cleaver. Men were breadwinners, women were housewives, the underclasses knew their places, and Mexicans were the McCoys’ non-threatening farmhand. The party knew what it believed: family values, small government, and a strong national defense (meaning to fend off the Russians).

That was then.

“Who are these people?”

Trump spoke on Friday to the California Republican Party convention in Anaheim. The Associated Press politely describes the speech as “occasionally dark and profane.” Marty McFly had to admit that his parents’ 1950s selves were not ready for guitar-shredding. The American press is still not ready to call Trump’s batshit lunacy “some weird shit.”

Trump advocated shooting on sight anyone who robs stores. He recommended solving the state’s wildfire problem by watering the forests with free water from the north of the state. It was an applause line. The MAGA champion belongs in a padded room.

The crowd cheered as Trump spoke of standing up to “crazy Nancy Pelosi.” Trump added snidely, “How’s her husband doing, anybody know?”

A fringe right attacker, inspired by such language, broke into the Pelosis’ San Francisco home last year looking to attack her. She was not home. So he bashed in her husband Paul’s skull with a hammer. He survived.

“Imagine being the type of person that would laugh about an 82 year old man being assaulted with a hammer to his head,” responded MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough. “Who are these people?”

Sociopaths Anonymous?

“The speech [Trump] gave today was beyond meandering,” former Sen. Claire McCaskill posted. “It was deranged, vicious, out of control, bizarre, and sick. And they all laughed. And it was on a teleprompter. So someone wrote that shit? Seriously scary. And they all laughed.”

When he promised to end “American carnage” in his inaugural speech, Trump signaled to his mirror-world followers his intent to dial it up to 11. (He had help from COVID-19.) Now facing four indictments and 91 felony charges, the twice-impeached former president hopes to double down with a second term defined by spite:

“In 2016, I declared, ‘I am your voice,’” Mr. Trump told the crowd in National Harbor, Md. “Today, I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.”

MAGA Republicans don’t want to govern. They mean to rule.

History has brought us to, Biden said this week, “a new time of testing.” We face the MAGA movement, “an extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs in our democracy.”

Whoever the Democrat and Republican candidates for president are next year, the choice Americans face at the polls will be between Uncle Joe’s sunny America and Trumpian autocracy. Conservative nostalgia for the 1950s is gone. Vengeance is the agenda. There is no policy to be found among most Republican members of Congress, no vison for a more perfect union. Nothing but catch phrases and buzzwords.

So what will Americans choose in the privacy of the voting booth? Are we really that insane? I did not think so in 2016. I was wrong.

As twee as it may sound, there is something still authentically appealing in Uncle Joe’s “This is the United States of America!” I imagine even the most cynical among us felt a secret thrill in dark theaters the first time Alec Guinness as Obi-Wan Kenobi mentioned “the Force.” We still want to believe government can be a force for good, built on ideas that bind us together. Or are we too jaded for that kind of faith?

Biden spoke in honor of the late Republican Sen. John McCain, quoting him: “We are citizens of the world — the world’s greatest republic. A nation of ideals, not blood and soil. Americans never quit. They never hide from history. America makes history.”

What sort of history we will make is up to us.

Friday Night Soother

Published by digby on September 29, 2023

The other day, after glancing out at their walkup front porch, a family in Wellington, New Zealand, happened upon an adorable scene of peace and tranquility.

There, curled up next to their door mat, the family saw a tuckered-out animal — a little fur seal, dozing away without a care in the world. But arriving to that cozy locale, a short ways from the sea, had been no easy task.

“[The seal] had been on a bit of a mission,” New Zealand’s Department of Conservation (DOC) wrote, “climbing up the seawall stairs, crossing a road, hiking up a footpath, a driveway, and finally another set of stairs, before reaching its nap spot.”

While conservation officials note that resting seals may be mistakenly perceived as needing rescue, they evidently agreed that this little guy’s choice of sleeping spot wasn’t so ideal.

So, an officer was called out to help him find a better one.

“[He was taken] further around the coast, to a safe place away from dogs and traffic,” the DOC wrote.

Fortunately, the seal looked to be only slightly groggy following his unplanned awakening.

This species of fur seal, known locally as “kekeno,” can be found throughout the coasts of New Zealand and Australia — though not usually on people’s porches.

Around this time of year, however, youngsters recently weaned from their parents (like the one above), are known to leave their colonies to explore the surrounding region, “making it a prime time to see them out and about,” writes the DOC.

During this period, called “silly season” by residents, people are encouraged to peacefully coexist with the occasional wayward or sleeping seal — at one’s front door, notwithstanding.

Via the Dodo

Who’s their daddy?

Published by digby on September 29, 2023

The NY Times:

“I’d shut down the government if they can’t make an appropriate deal, absolutely,” Mr. Trump said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Mr. Trump’s view of how shutdowns work was shaped by his own experience as president, when the longest government shutdown in history took place from December 2018 to January 2019. He incurred the public blame for it, as he publicly embraced the idea of a shutdown while holding contentious talks about a budget agreement with two Democratic leaders, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York and the House speaker at the time, Nancy Pelosi of California.

“I’ll be the one to shut it down,” Mr. Trump told the leaders in a contentious Oval Office meeting in December 2018 shortly before the shutdown. “I will take the mantle. And I will shut it down for border security.”

There is no reason to believe that Mr. Biden would be granted outsize blame, if any at all, for a shutdown that a group of Republican holdouts in Congress are encouraging. Mr. McCarthy has privately noted what Mr. Trump said publicly at the time in 2018, according to a person with knowledge of Mr. McCarthy’s comments.

In an earlier post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump suggested he believed the shutdown could “defund” the federal investigations he’s facing, although people have told him that such a belief was not likely to become reality, according to a person briefed on the conversation.

“The Republicans lost big on Debt Ceiling, got NOTHING, and now are worried that they will be blamed for the Budget Shutdown,” he wrote. “Wrong!!! Whoever is President will be blamed, in this case, Crooked (as Hell!) Joe Biden!”

Mr. Trump’s view of how shutdowns work was shaped by his own experience as president, when the longest government shutdown in history took place from December 2018 to January 2019. He incurred the public blame for it, as he publicly embraced the idea of a shutdown while holding contentious talks about a budget agreement with two Democratic leaders, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York and the House speaker at the time, Nancy Pelosi of California.

“I’ll be the one to shut it down,” Mr. Trump told the leaders in a contentious Oval Office meeting in December 2018 shortly before the shutdown. “I will take the mantle. And I will shut it down for border security.”

There is no reason to believe that Mr. Biden would be granted outsize blame, if any at all, for a shutdown that a group of Republican holdouts in Congress are encouraging. Mr. McCarthy has privately noted what Mr. Trump said publicly at the time in 2018, according to a person with knowledge of Mr. McCarthy’s comments.

He was blamed because he caused it. The Republicans held both houses and the presidency. And they still shut down the government. It was stupid.

They say that while Trump is publicly agitating for a shutdown he hasn’t been whipping individual members personally. I’m guessing Matt and Marge are doing that as his surrogates.

Yet Mr. McCarthy, whom Mr. Trump supported at the last minute when he ran for speaker, is facing an existential threat to his leadership, with his Republican critics looking to force him from his role amid the calamity of a likely shutdown.

Aides to Mr. McCarthy and Mr. Trump declined to comment.

People close to both men maintain that the looming government shutdown was not a strain on their relationship, nor was it a sign of a bigger rift. Nonetheless, a person close to Mr. Trump acknowledged that his support for a shutdown was providing encouragement to Mr. McCarthy’s adversaries.

Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, a leading supporter of a shutdown, said in an interview that one of Mr. Trump’s posts on social media endorsing a shutdown may have had an influence on some members of Congress.

“I think there might have been a few people on the fence who were persuaded by that statement,” Mr. Gaetz said. “I view that as consequential.”

Yet Mr. Trump is not being faulted, at least overtly, for his stance. In Congress, some Republicans dismissed the notion that Mr. Trump could do something to push Mr. Gaetz and his allies in the other direction, away from a shutdown.

“I think it certainly helps with some of these folks when they hear from the former president, like during the speaker negotiations or the debt ceiling,” said Representative Mike Lawler of New York, a Republican member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. But he said it was Mr. Gaetz who was “creating a crisis.”

A person close to Mr. Trump maintained that the former president did not view the situation in terms of helping Mr. McCarthy, nor did he view the speaker as being especially imperiled. Mr. Trump “doesn’t think Kevin needs rescuing,” the person said. In Mr. Trump’s view, the person said, a government shutdown isn’t a terrible thing so long as it’s not consequential.

He means “consequential for him.”

And there has been another issue at play: Mr. Trump’s bid for the White House.

The person close to Mr. Trump insisted the former president had not been frustrated with Mr. McCarthy over his lack of an endorsement in the Republican presidential primary. Yet others who have spoken with Mr. Trump throughout the year said he had raised Mr. McCarthy’s lack of a formal endorsement several times.

Mr. McCarthy has all but endorsed Mr. Trump in recent weeks — taking public shots at his chief rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, and talking up Mr. Trump — but he has delayed making it official.

Earlier this year, Mr. McCarthy’s reasoning, according to three people with direct knowledge of his thinking, was that he was eventually going to endorse Mr. Trump but needed to hold off for fund-raising purposes. He has said that major donors who are essential to funding House Republican campaigns would cut off funds if he endorsed Mr. Trump and that he needed to raise as much money as possible from donors who do not like the former president before making the decision official, the people with knowledge of his thinking said.

Another person in contact with Mr. McCarthy, while not disputing that he expressed those sentiments about fund-raising, said that he was one of the most prolific fund-raisers in the Republican Party, and that he expected to raise money regardless of Mr. Trump.

Then there’s this inane demand:

Mr. Trump has also had an eye on expunging his impeachments. He asked Mr. McCarthy and his allies what they’re going to do to clear his impeachments — though it remains unclear whether they have any power to do so.

Despite the lack of formal support, Mr. McCarthy has made sure to tend to the relationship with Mr. Trump since he said in a television interview earlier this year that he was uncertain the former president was the strongest nominee in the general election. That comment enraged Mr. Trump, who told his aides he wanted it fixed.

More recently, Mr. McCarthy has struck a different note, saying: “President Trump is beating Biden right now in the polls. He’s stronger than he has ever been in this process.”

It’s pretty clear who their daddy is and daddy’s calling the shots. Gaetz and his people have their own agenda (God knows what it is other than blowing things up) but they have the putative Republican nominee for president on their side and everyone knows it. Especially MyKevin who’s trying to thread a needle that just isn’t threadable.