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Verbal Jiu-jitsu?

Aka “I know you are but what am I”

The following discussion is hardly anything new to those of you who’ve been following the netroots, blogs, online left, what-have-you for the past couple of decades. There was once an obsessive focus in those groups on “messaging” and how to combat what seemed to be the right’s mastery of the form. Nobody talks about it much anymore but it’s still an issue and this article is a decent reminder of that:

By almost any measure, the struggle for political dominance in the US seems deadlocked between Republicans and Democrats. At times, the two parties resemble a pair of punch-drunk boxers, slugging away at one another in a contest that neither can end.

But there is one political battleground where Republicans triumph virtually every time — and control of this arena could determine who wins the White House in 2024.

Republicans are masters of verbal jiu-jitsu. It’s a form of linguistic combat in which the practitioner takes a political phrase or concept popularized by their opponent and gradually turns into an unusable slur. Like the Japanese martial art known as jiu-jitsu, its devotees avoid taking opposing arguments head on and instead redirect their opponents’ momentum to beat them.

If this sounds abstract, consider the evolution of “ woke.” The word is defined as being “actively aware of social injustice.” But it has been transformed into a contemporary scourge, one that a politician compared to a “virus more dangerous than any pandemic, hands down.”

Mention almost any touchstone phrase adopted by the left in recent years — “critical race theory,” “diversity,” “global warming,” even the word “liberal” itself — and it has been redefined or tarnished by conservatives.

Meanwhile, Republicans continue to proudly use words and pet phrases such as “family values,” “conservative” and “patriot” – no matter who or what is associated with the terms.

As candidates prep for the first 2024 GOP presidential debate Wednesday in Milwaukee, it’s a good time to ponder this question: Why are Republicans so good at this form of verbal combat, and Democrats so bad?

Part of the answer comes down to effort and discipline — Republicans devote more time to turning words into weapons and do a better job of sticking to their message, says Lindsey Cormack, a political scientist who focuses on race, gender, communications and politics at Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey.

“I’ve been studying their communications for 15 years and it sort of blows me away because I think Democrats are good at doing plenty of things, but they really dropped the ball on the communications piece a lot,” Cormack says.

Cormack says conservatives have built a think-tank ecosystem of linguists and focus groups to test words and phrases for political battleDemocrats do some of the same, but with not the same level of commitment, she says.

“They (conservatives) think about what words resonate, what words cue other sorts of thoughts or what sort of images come to mind with people when they’re hearing messages,” Cormack says. “They seem to have more invested in that, and they have more people who write about that sort of work and linguists who do these sorts of things for them.”

How conservatives flipped the script on race

Verbal jiu-jitsu is not new in American politics. Conservatives have long employed it on racial issues. During the civil rights movement of the ‘50s and ‘60s, conservatives in both the Democratic and Republican parties often used a series of verbal feints that changed the direction of their opponent’s moral arguments.

They didn’t say they opposed integration; they said they were for “state’s rights.”

They didn’t say they didn’t want their children sitting next to Black or brown kids when opposing desegregation of public schools; they said they were against “forced busing.”

Conservatives didn’t directly say they opposed school integration. They, like these New York City parents pictured here, said they opposed “forced busing.”Harry Harris/AP

They didn’t say they opposed civil rights leaders’ efforts to make the US a genuine multiracial democracy; they called those leaders “communists” or “socialists.”

They flipped the script by offering new words to replace other terms that were hard to attack head-on.

Sometimes they disarmed a liberal phrase by transforming its meaning.

“Social justice warrior,” for example, didn’t start off as an insult. What’s wrong with someone fighting on behalf of the poor and exploited? Then the term was turned by conservatives and internet culture into something else: a “whiny,” self-righteous progressive who can’t take a joke.

Recent years have brought numerous headlines about another liberal term that has been dismantled by the right.

Critical race theory was once an obscure academic discipline that insisted that racism is more than individual prejudice; it’s embedded in laws, policies and institutions. But conservatives redirected the discussion and turned the term into a catchall phrase that criticizes virtually any examination of systemic racism or history that could make White people uncomfortable.

Whatever the method, this form of verbal jiu-jitsu is used for one purpose, says Robin DiAngelo, author of “White Fragility,” a popular book that spawned another popular liberal catchphrase.

“The function is to silence the conversation and to protect the status quo,” DiAngelo says. “It doesn’t have to make sense. It just has to work and get race off the table and prevent any challenges to the status quo.”

How ‘diversity’ and ‘equity’ became dirty words

Next on the hit list are two other terms favored by liberals: “diversity” and “equity,” DiAngelo says.

Those words originally meant values that were virtually universally accepted. Not many people would openly argue for exclusion or inequity.

In recent years many institutions have launched initiatives around Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) to make their workplaces more fair and diverse.  

But Republican leaders are now comparing DEI initiatives to “wokeness” and “loyalty oaths.” They have introduced bills cutting DEI programs in public universities and corporate America.

Paulette Granberry Russell, president of the National Association of Diversity Officers and Higher Education, recently told a reporter she doesn’t use the acronym DEI anymore because it’s been “weaponized.”

Republicans also have sought to reframe “equity,” which means “being fair or impartial,” by calling the word “a “mandate to discriminate.” And they have attempted to delegitimize “diversity” by expanding the term to “diversity industrial complex,” which a critic described as “a bureaucratic juggernaut running roughshod over every aspect of national life.”

“I’m going to tell you as somebody who’s been in this work for decades, there’s no diversity industrial complex,” DiAngelo says. “When an organization has a diversity program, there’s often one person up against the entire institution. And they maybe have a staff of one or two people on a minimal budget. But using language like that implies that it’s some kind of getting over on people, like it’s some kind of trick.”

When ‘global warming’ becomes ‘climate change’

Some of the most skillful practitioners of verbal jiu-jitsu are able to disarm their opponents without them knowing that they’ve given ground. As a result, liberals eventually end up using the terms favored by their conservative opponents.

The phrase “global warming” was popularized by the media and some scientists in the 1980s. It’s been virtually eliminated from public discourse by verbal jiu-jitsu. Some of that change is due to science. Some scientists believe climate change is a more accurate description of the environmental challenges facing the planet.

Demonstrators march across the Brooklyn Bridge during a climate change protest in New York on March 3, 2023.Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg/Getty Images

But it was Republicans who initially pushed for the name change, for reasons that had little to do with scientific accuracy. Instead of acknowledging the science pointing toward a looming environmental disaster, one Republican pollster offered another phrase to mute the alarm: climate change.

That term was popularized in part by Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster who advised GOP politicians in the early 2000s to stop using the term “global warming” because it had “catastrophic connotations” and reframe the issue as the more benign “climate change.” (Luntz has since disavowed his efforts to cast doubt on global warming.)

Two decades later, many liberal politicians and activists continue to use the phrase “climate change, the cognitive scientist George Lakoff noted.

“The word ‘climate’ sounds nice – like palm trees or something – and the word ‘change’, well, ‘change’ just happens,” Lakoff said in an interview. “It’s not a big deal. Nothing you can do about it. Not humanly caused. So, the term itself is a right-wing position that people on the left just innocently adopted instead of saying, well, this is a climate disaster that’s approaching.”

The article mentions George Lakoff who was once seen as the Frank Luntz of the left. But his ideas never really caught on beyond a discrete portion of the online left. Anat Shenker-Osario is still working on these issues and continues to offer some great insights:

It’s something to be aware of — and think about. Their recent wordsmithing under Trump seems pretty lame to me — crude nicknames and dumb acronyms like “MAGA” but it seems to work for them.

Won’t stop believing

They’re doubling down:

Just two days after the Georgia indictment, one of Trump’s most enthusiastic backers took the stage at a conference in Missouri to again spread election misinformation. Mike Lindell, the owner of MyPillow who is a vocal promoter of the myth that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, kicked off an event on purported election crimes with a video about fraud.

It included footage from November 2020 that purported to show a Fulton County, Georgia, election worker pulling a briefcase of ballots from under a desk to surreptitiously add them to the tally.

As evidence has since shown, the worker, Ruby Freeman, was simply doing her job — pulling out a standard government container full of real ballots that had to be counted. Three different counts of the Georgia vote, including one by hand, showed the ballots were tallied properly and the results were accurate.

But Freeman and her daughter, who also worked in the elections office that night, were targeted by Trump and his allies and accused of helping throw the election to Biden, compared to drug dealers and deluged with threats. The women testified before the congressional Jan. 6 committee about their ordeal and sued several Trump backers, including former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, for libel. The lies about them are a central part of last week’s indictment of Trump and his allies for allegedly conspiring to spread misinformation to steal the Georgia election.

Yet they persisted. During his conference, Lindell prefaced the video by saying “it isn’t about evidence” and meant to evoke the atmosphere of December 2020, as Trump was challenging the election results and trying to find avenues to remain in power. The anonymously produced video, full of fevered reports of other ”anomalies” in the election, opens with the words “this video is pure data.”

“I never forgot this video,” Lindell said.

Nor has the Republican electorate. Although Trump’s allegations have repeatedly been disproven — often by his own advisers — they’ve taken a firm hold among his party. An Associated Press poll last week found 57% of Republicans said they didn’t view Biden as a legitimately elected president.

The 98-page Georgia indictment lists several false allegations made by Trump that were quickly disproven by fellow Republicans, Georgia’s secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, and Gov. Brian Kemp. Still, Trump insists to this day that the election was stolen from him and continues to lie about it.

After the indictment, he promised a press conference this week revealing a report he claimed would show how the Georgia election was stolen from him — a pledge he rescinded on Thursday, saying his lawyers wanted to make his argument in a court filing instead.

“Does anybody really believe I lost Georgia?” Trump asked on his Truth Social network Saturday. “I DON’T.” […]

At the recent Iowa State Fair, where he was campaigning for that state’s presidential caucus next year, Trump again claimed the 2020 election was “rigged.” In anticipation of the Georgia indictment, Trump’s campaign issued a statement a week ago saying prosecutors were “taking away President Trump’s First Amendment right to free speech, and the right to challenge a rigged and stolen election that the Democrats do all the time.”

And every GOP strategist cringes every time he does this. It cost them the red wave in 2022. And it will cost them 2024.

Under cover of MAGA

“a friendlier Nazi Germany”

Amanda Moore with Michael Flynn (via Twitter).

Amanda Moore went undercover in late 2020 as a far-right extremist. She attended the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) and Turning Point USA’s Student Action Summit. By August 2021, she was attending a Proud Boys riot in Portland with a neo-Nazi. The far-right threat, Moore felt, was “misunderstood by much of the press and far more dangerous than what was being reported.” What began as an idea for a podcast and a couple of blog posts became an 11-month journey into the heart of American darkness.

The press underestimates the white-nationalist threat because these groups are careful to conceal their real agenda. They work as congressional campaign staffers and work to form congressional caucuses, all while “meeting with leaders of far-right political parties in Italy and Hungary” and heading up local Young Republican clubs.

“Some have worked hard to scrub themselves from the Internet or to curate their online personas; others operate in the shadows, so that people do not even know to look for them,” Moore explains in The Nation. “But they network with each other, calling in favors and introductions. They’ve created a social maze that’s almost impossible to trace—unless you are invited to become one of them.”

Moore was.

At just 29 years old, Gavin Wax, the president of the New York Young Republican Club, has already been working for years to push the Republican Party to the right and encourage those on the far right to enter mainstream GOP organizations. In 2016, Wax was the editor of Liberty Conservative, an online libertarian magazine. Alongside palatable pieces on libertarian candidates and policy, Wax published racist work by the white nationalist James Allsup. Ultimately, the magazine shifted so far right that multiple contributors quit. And since 2019, when he was elected president of the club, Wax has led a MAGA-style takeover of the previously moderate NYYRC. He was also the national spokesman for Republicans for National Renewal, an organization whose mission is to infiltrate the GOP with “hard core conservatives” and “unabashed America First patriots.”

[…]

Working from within the system isn’t a strategy unique to Wax, who did not respond to my requests for an interview. Wax’s tactics have become a model for how to seize power. Increasingly, young far-right activists appear just reasonable enough to be let in the door, and once inside the establishment, they recruit people to the movement. Wax’s former colleague James Allsup did this well. After Allsup became a GOP precinct committee officer in Washington State, one neo-Nazi said on a podcast, “We can’t all be Andrew Anglin [the founder of the neo-Nazi outlet The Daily Stormer], but 10,000 of us can be James Allsup.”

Moore cautions that these groups are different from MAGA foot soldiers.

“Almost without fail, the boomer conspiracy theorists who populated QAnon conferences were quick to say January 6 was a peaceful day. But the fascists and those with ties to white nationalist groups were proud of storming the Capitol.”

The latter have no illusions that Donald Trump won the 2020 election. That’s for the dupes at TPUSA. White nationalists like Alex Nelson view “the steal” as cover for defending their allies arrested over the Capitol assault.

In July 2021, I met Alex Nelson for the first time at a cocktail reception during Turning Point USA’s Student Action Summit in Tampa. I was standing in line for a glass of wine when Nelson asked me what my vision for America was. To avoid encouraging people, I was always careful not to be more extreme than the people I met, so I deflected and asked what he wanted for the country.

“Uh… like a friendlier Nazi Germany,” Nelson responded.

Nelson was disappointed that more Capitol rioters failed to stand their ground against the FBI on Jan. 6.

“None of them fought back. None of them Ruby Ridged themselves,” he told Moore.

Ashli Babbitt was not enough and too female, one supposes. White nationalism needs more Horst Wessels and a more martial marching song than Y.M.C.A.

Soon after the Portland event, Moore found herself doxed on Telegram, the fringe-right social media site. “Amanda Moore is a 33 year old communist infiltrator in the DC area,” someone wrote and included pictures. She revealed herself on Twitter and included photos of herself with far-right figures including former Trump National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.

Read the entire thing in The Nation. They walk among us.

Or maybe retreat

Lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie

So, okay, Donald Trump is not being booked the day of the GOP debate (AP):

Former President Donald Trump says he will surrender to authorities in Georgia on Thursday to face charges in the case accusing him of illegally scheming to overturn his 2020 election loss in the state.

“Can you believe it? I’ll be going to Atlanta, Georgia, on Thursday to be ARRESTED,” Trump wrote on his social media network Monday night, hours after his bond was set at $200,000.

This will be Trump’s fourth arrest since April.

When defendants arrive at the building, they typically pass through a security checkpoint before checking in for formal booking in the lobby. During the booking process, defendants are typically photographed and fingerprinted and asked to provide certain personal information. Since Trump’s bond has already been set, he will be released from custody once the booking process is complete.

Unlike in other jurisdictions, in Fulton County, arraignments — where a defendant first appears in court — are generally set after a defendant completes the booking process and do not happen on the same day.

This is getting to be a familiar drill for Trump. A burly booking officer will look at him with tears in his eyes and say, “Sir….” He’ll soon claim nobody knows more about getting arrested than him. In the history of this country. “Believe me.”

No retreat, baby, no surrender

Lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie
Lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie
Lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie
Lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie

Or maybe retreat.

Get the net.

The most powerful moron in the world

It’s not Donald Trump

Ronan Farrow has a deep dive on Elon Musk:

Initially, Musk showed unreserved support for the Ukrainian cause, responding encouragingly as Mykhailo Fedorov, the Ukrainian minister for digital transformation, tweeted pictures of equipment in the field. But, as the war ground on, SpaceX began to balk at the cost. “We are not in a position to further donate terminals to Ukraine, or fund the existing terminals for an indefinite period of time,” SpaceX’s director of government sales told the Pentagon in a letter, last September. (CNBC recently valued SpaceX at nearly a hundred and fifty billion dollars. Forbes estimated Musk’s personal net worth at two hundred and twenty billion dollars, making him the world’s richest man.)

Musk was also growing increasingly uneasy with the fact that his technology was being used for warfare. That month, at a conference in Aspen attended by business and political figures, Musk even appeared to express support for Vladimir Putin. “He was onstage, and he said, ‘We should be negotiating. Putin wants peace—we should be negotiating peace with Putin,’ ” Reid Hoffman, who helped start PayPal with Musk, recalled. Musk seemed, he said, to have “bought what Putin was selling, hook, line, and sinker.” A week later, Musk tweeted a proposal for his own peace plan, which called for new referendums to redraw the borders of Ukraine, and granted Russia control of Crimea, the semi-autonomous peninsula recognized by most nations, including the United States, as Ukrainian territory. In later tweets, Musk portrayed as inevitable an outcome favoring Russia and attached maps highlighting eastern Ukrainian territories, some of which, he argued, “prefer Russia.” Musk also polled his Twitter followers about the plan. Millions responded, with about sixty per cent rejecting the proposal. (Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, tweeted his own poll, asking users whether they preferred the Elon Musk who supported Ukraine or the one who now seemed to back Russia. The former won, though Zelensky’s poll had a smaller turnout: Musk has more than twenty times as many followers.)

No single nutcase should have this much power.

In the end he agreed to continue — for a price.

There is little precedent for a civilian’s becoming the arbiter of a war between nations in such a granular way, or for the degree of dependency that the U.S. now has on Musk in a variety of fields, from the future of energy and transportation to the exploration of space. SpaceX is currently the sole means by which nasa transports crew from U.S. soil into space, a situation that will persist for at least another year. The government’s plan to move the auto industry toward electric cars requires increasing access to charging stations along America’s highways. But this rests on the actions of another Musk enterprise, Tesla. The automaker has seeded so much of the country with its proprietary charging stations that the Biden Administration relaxed an early push for a universal charging standard disliked by Musk. His stations are eligible for billions of dollars in subsidies, so long as Tesla makes them compatible with the other charging standard.

In the past twenty years, against a backdrop of crumbling infrastructure and declining trust in institutions, Musk has sought out business opportunities in crucial areas where, after decades of privatization, the state has receded. The government is now reliant on him, but struggles to respond to his risk-taking, brinkmanship, and caprice. Current and former officials from nasa, the Department of Defense, the Department of Transportation, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration told me that Musk’s influence had become inescapable in their work, and several of them said that they now treat him like a sort of unelected official. One Pentagon spokesman said that he was keeping Musk apprised of my inquiries about his role in Ukraine and would grant an interview with an official about the matter only with Musk’s permission. “We’ll talk to you if Elon wants us to,” he told me. In a podcast interview last year, Musk was asked whether he has more influence than the American government. He replied immediately, “In some ways.” Reid Hoffman told me that Musk’s attitude is “like Louis XIV: ‘L’état, c’est moi.’ ”

Musk’s power continues to grow. His takeover of Twitter, which he has rebranded “X,” gives him a critical forum for political discourse ahead of the next Presidential election. He recently launched an artificial-intelligence company, a move that follows years of involvement in the technology. Musk has become a hyper-exposed pop-culture figure, and his sharp turns from altruistic to vainglorious, strategic to impulsive, have been the subject of innumerable articles and at least seven major books, including a forthcoming biography by Walter Isaacson. But the nature and the scope of his power are less widely understood.

More than thirty of Musk’s current and former colleagues in various industries and a dozen individuals in his personal life spoke to me about their experiences with him. Sam Altman, the C.E.O. of OpenAI, with whom Musk has both worked and sparred, told me, “Elon desperately wants the world to be saved. But only if he can be the one to save it.”

According to this article, a lot of this is driven by ruthless financial motivation. But his acquisition of twitter and its resultant destruction due to his massive ego and ignorance shows that it’s not just that.

This is obviously the era of the megalomaniacal moron. I presume he has good luck and instincts in business which has made him very rich. But he is also quite stupid in many ways and is exceedingly immature and shallow. We know this because we can see his blatherings on his little toy every day. This man having so much money and this much power is very, very bad for humanity.

Insanity!

Here we have one of the supposedly great centrist unifiers promising to hand the election to Donald Trump:

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said Sunday that No Labels will “very likely” launch a third-party “alternative” if former President Trump and President Biden win the nominations for their parties.

“But if Trump and Biden are the nominees, it’s very likely that No Labels will get access to the ballot and offer an alternative,” Hogan said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “And if most of the voters don’t want A or B, we have an obligation to give them C, I mean, for the good of the country.” 

Hogan, who serves as the national co-chairman of No Labels — a political group that has been pushing for a third-party ticket — said two-thirds of the American people are “not interested” in voting for the Republican or Democratic nominee. 

“It’s an overwhelming majority of people who are completely fed up with politics,” Hogan said. “They think Washington is broken. And so, even though this normally is not something that we consider and talk about seriously, because it hasn’t happened in the past, this is something that could happen,” noting that it is still a “long way off.” 

David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to President Obama, pushed back against Hogan’s proposal Sunday, saying, “Honestly, doesn’t that pave the way for Donald Trump? Doesn’t that siphon votes from Joe Biden and elect the person that you have criticized so heavily?” GOP senator touts Ramaswamy as exciting presidential candidate Sununu says he’ll work to narrow 2024 GOP field in effort to defeat Trump 

Hogan disagreed and said the third-party candidate would “pull just as many votes from Donald Trump as Joe Biden.” 

“I love Larry Hogan, but that’s just not true,” Axelrod responded. “I think that broken glass will be the jagged edge that cuts the throat of the Biden campaign. History shows that. Trump has a high floor and a low ceiling. If you lower the ceiling to where his … high floor is good enough to win, he will win. And he benefited from third parties in 2016. This would be a dreadful mistake if the goal is to deprive Donald Trump of the presidency.” Axelrod called it the former president’s “hope” and “prayer.”

Hogan isn’t stupid. He knows Axelrod is right about Trump’s solid core support. I can only assume that he’s decided that anything is better than Joe Biden, including Donald Trump. No one with any other motive would do this in this election.

Another attack on the Atlanta DA

He can’t help himself

Mediaite reported:

According to a recent WalletHub report, Atlanta is ranked 11th in the nation for violent crime and has seen an increase in murder rates over the past few years. No doubt Atlanta is not the safest city in the nation, but its problems do not seem materially different than other urban areas in red and blue states.

I wonder if at some point the GOP residents of Georgia will get tired of their state and its leaders being slagged by Donald Trump day in and day out. I suppose most of them are fine with it. He’s their god and can do no wrong. But there must be a few who still have a little pride in their own state. Aren’t there?

All it will take is one deluded MAGA on the jury…

Over the weekend Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may have sealed his political fate with one recklessly dumb comment. Failing to learn the lesson that a Trump opponent can say a lot of things but he cannot ever insult Trump supporters he told The Florida Standard:

“The movement has got to be about what are you trying to achieve on behalf of the American people and that’s got to be based in principle, because if you’re not rooted in principle, if all we are is listless vessels that’s just supposed to follow … whatever happens to come down the pike on Truth Social every morning, that’s not going to be a durable movement.”

The so-called “listless vessels” were not amused.

DeSantis and his people scrambled to defend themselves, saying that he was referring to Trump’s congressional supporters not his Real American supporters but referring to members of congress as a “movement” was very sloppy even if he was actually whining about elected officials. He also said:

“I think that we have a stream in our party that views supporting Trump as whether you are a Rino or not. And so you could be the most conservative person since sliced bread, unless you’re kissing his rear end, they will somehow call you a Rino.”

I guess sliced bread isn’t “woke.” What a relief.

DeSantis should have known better than to go there even if he did mean to target members of congress. They’re Trump supporters too and they are very popular with the voters he seems determined to woo. He might as well have called them all deplorable and then dropped out of the campaign. It’s only a matter of time before somebody starts selling coffee mugs and T-shirts that say “Proud to be a listless vessel” on them.

And anyway, if there was ever a group of people, whether in Congress or among the American people who are anything but listless, it’s MAGA followers. They may be “vessels” but they are as energetic and enthusiastic a political faction as we have ever seen. It’s fun!

In fact, they’re having so much fun that they are living in a full-fledged, delusional fantasy that makes “Barbie” look like “The Sorrow and the Pity.” These results from the latest CBS Poll are from another dimension:

Trump far and away leads the GOP field among voters who place top importance on a candidate being “honest and trustworthy.”

61% for Trump to the next candidate, DeSantis, at 17%. And it gets even weirder:

More generally, Trump’s voters hold him as a source of true information, even more so than other sources, including conservative media figures, religious leaders, and even their own friends and family.

This is classic cult follower behavior. And this isn’t some small group, tens of millions of Americans feel that what Donald Trump, one of history’s greatest liars, tells them is true even compared to the clergy.

61% of primary voters also believe that Trump would definitely beat Biden, which the pollsters acknowledge is likely due to the fact that they believe he won the last election and has the advantage of a Bizarro World form of incumbency. They believe his lies that the Trump presidency was the most successful of all time and they want more of it. (His overall record is actually very mixed and his handling of the pandemic, his greatest challenge, was a historic failure.)

77% believe that the indictments against Trump are politically motivated and 62% say they plan to vote for him in the primary. His closest rival is DeSantis at 16%. But according to this article in The Atlantic by Russell Berman, there is some evidence that a change in the way that question is worded challenges the conventional wisdom that Trump is actually being helped by the indictments. But it only adds up to about 1.6% points which is trivial considering his lead.

More relevant is the finding by Sarah Longwell a Republican strategist who holds frequent focus groups, that GOP primary voters in the main just don’t care about them. Almost no Republicans have said the indictments have made them less likely to support him. He is their leader and they believe he’s telling the truth when he says he did none of it. I’m afraid that if any of these trials end up with one or more of these fun-loving Trump followers on the jury it’s going to be very hard to shake them out of their belief that he can literally do no wrong.

Trump responded to this poll on his Truth Social platform:

New CBS POLL, just out, has me leading the field by “legendary” numbers. TRUMP 62%, 46 Points above DeSanctimonious (who is crashing like an ailing bird!), Ramaswamy 7%, Pence 5%, Scott 3%, Haley 2%, Sloppy Chris Christy 2%, “Aida” Hutchinson 1%. The public knows who I am & what a successful Presidency I had, with Energy Independence, Strong Borders and Military, Biggest EVER Tax & Regulation Cuts, No Inflation, Strongest Economy in History & much more. I WILL THEREFORE NOT BE DOING THE DEBATES!

He has instead agreed to do a pre-taped interview with former Fox celebrity Tucker Carlson to be aired on X, formerly twitter, at the same time as the Fox News debate. (He’s miffed at Fox for not reporting his best poll numbers and using the “big orange” pictures of him so this is obviously his idea of a clever slap in the face.)

The fact that it’s pre-taped is interesting for two reasons. If Carlson insisted on it, it may be because he wants to control it instead of letting Trump run off at the mouth as he does in live interviews. If Trump demanded it, it’s possible that he has other plans. Apparently Fox isn’t sure that he won’t just crash the debate anyway so they’ve got plans in place to accommodate him in case he does. It is not beyond the realm of possibility.

It’s also possible that he’ll be sneaking in the back door of the Fulton County Jail to turn himself in for arrest. It’s open 24/7. He’s got to do it sometime before Friday, and if he’s on twitter and the debate’s on Fox perhaps he hopes he can keep his “listless vessels” from seeing it live. But he needn’t worry. As he said before, he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes. For once he wasn’t lying.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/08/trump-indictment-2024-election-republican-primary-polling/675062/

NY T: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/20/us/politics/trump-biden-debates.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-poll-indictments-2023-08-20/

Mark Meadows, dancing as fast as he can

“A tricky approach” to avoiding conviction

Mark Meadows speaking at the 2018 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland. Photo by Gage Skidmore (CC BY-SA 2.0).

New information in the Trump stolen documents case surfaced over the weekend. ABC News had a scoop on former Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows’ testimony to special counsel Jack Smith’s investigators. Marcy Wheeler (emptywheel) this morning summarizes key points:

  • Meadows knew of no standing order to declassify documents
  • He was not involved in packing boxes, didn’t see Trump doing so, and wasn’t aware Trump had taken classified documents
  • Meadows offered to sort through boxes of documents after NARA inquired about them in May 2021, but Trump declined the offer
  • Meadows ultimately backed his ghostwriter’s account that the Iran document that Trump described to Meadows’ ghost-writer was on the couch in front of him at the time of the exchange

Meadows asked that the part about a classified Iran war plan sitting out in plain view be edited out of an early draft of Meadows’ book, “The Chief’s Chief,” ABC reports:

Sources told ABC News that Meadows was questioned by Smith’s investigators about the changes made to the language in the draft, and Meadows claimed, according to the sources, that he personally edited it out because he didn’t believe at the time that Trump would have possessed a document like that at Bedminster.

Meadows also said that if it were true Trump did indeed have such a document, it would be “problematic” and “concerning,” sources familiar with the exchange said. Meadows said his perspective changed on whether his ghostwriter’s recollection could have been accurate, given the later revelations about the classified materials recovered from Mar-a-Lago in the months since his book was published, the sources said.

Significantly, Meadows changed his testimony on the matter, Wheeler notes. Based on his court filing asking to have his Georgia charges dismissed, he’s clearly trying to frame his actions in both the Georgia and documents cases as “just doing his job,” hoping it will help him evade convictions, Wheeler continues:

There’s an arc here. The early acts in both indictments might be deemed legal information gathering. After that, in early December, Meadows takes two actions, one alleged in Georgia and the other federally, both of which put him clearly in the role of a conspirator, neither of which explicitly involves Trump as charged in the Georgia indictment. Meadows:

  • Asks Johnny McEntee for a memo on how to obstruct the vote certification
  • Orders the campaign to ensure someone is coordinating the fake electors

Wheeler explains at length how Meadows is exposed both federally and in Georgia for actions taken arguably outside the scope of his COS duties and with no clear federal policy interest.

Between the overt political nature of three of his actions and the lack of any policy argument, Fani Willis should be able to mount an aggressive challenge to this effort, though the effort is not entirely frivolous and Meadows has very good lawyers even if those lawyers don’t have great facts.

[…]

The degree to which subsequent events, including the Georgia indictment, may discredit Meadows’ federal grand jury testimony likely explains why we’ve gotten the first ever leak as to the substance of Meadows’ testimony, which often serves as a way to telegraph testimony to other witnesses. Several of the things ABC describes him as testifying to — that he had no idea Trump took classified documents and that he offered to sort through everything but Trump refused — seem unlikely. But so long as whoever else could refute that (including Walt Nauta, who helped pack up the boxes) tells the same story, he might get away with improbable testimony.

Wheeler summarizes:

Meadows appears, thus far, to have succeeded with a very tricky approach. He has great lawyers and it may well succeed going forward. But with all the indictments flying, that effort gets far more difficult, particularly given the way the overt acts in the Georgia indictment discredit Meadows’ federal grand jury testimony.

Conclusion: Mark Meadows is dancing as fast as he can.

Hilary today, floods tomorrow

“Virtually all rainfall daily records have been broken”

For future reference, on the east coast when it’s overcast and the air feels like warm bathwater, a hurricane is on its way.

Hoping our friends kept dry on Sunday during Hilary’s visit to Palm Springs where the 911 system went down. It’s not as if tropical weather is a regular event there. (One mentioned doing some advance sandbagging.) Weather experts reported “virtually all rainfall daily records have been broken thus far” and warned of “catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.” Plenty of people seem to have insisted on driving flooded streets anyway.

As an aside, a women in Greenville, S.C. once stepped out of her car after she stalled out in a foot of water in a low spot. She got sucked down a storm drain at the curb. They found her body in a river days later. It’s not something you forget. Don’t do that.

Washington Post:

  • Now a post-tropical cyclone, Hilary was traveling north through Nevada early Monday, with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph, the NHC said. “A brief tornado or two will be possible” in southeastern California, northwest Arizona, southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, the NHC said.
  • Up to 10.5 inches of rain fell in Southern California, including around 2 to 3 inches in Los Angeles and San Diego, which set summer records.
  • A man was killed Sunday in Mexico’s Baja California Sur, authorities said, after water swept away his car.
  • A magnitude-5.1 earthquake shook parts of Southern California on Sunday afternoon, triggering an emergency mobile alert to residents in Los Angeles County and surrounding areas. The National Weather Service said a tsunami was not expected.

The Los Angeles Unified School District schools are closed.