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Maybe you should mind the store, Ron

How’s it going down in Florida these days?

The inflation rate hit a two-year low in June but the financial relief may not be felt in Florida.

The Federal Reserve raised the interest rate again on Wednesday in an effort to lower inflation. It comes as the Tampa Bay area still has among the highest inflation rates reported, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater has a Consumer Price Index, which is measured for inflation, of 7.3% for the year ended in May. 

Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index grew at an annual rate of 3% in June — the smallest increase since March 2021, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. 

South Florida is also reporting similar numbers. 

The CPI for Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-West Palm Beach is at 6.9% in June from the year before.

[…]

Those like Nhick Ramiro Pacis of Tampa keep an eye on his budget from the rising costs at the grocery to his insurance.

“It’s really affecting a lot of people. Not only me,” Pacis said. 

Like other Floridians, Pacis has had to make adjustments. On top of working two jobs, he’s cut down on TV subscriptions and dining out in an effort to save. 

Claar said it’ll be difficult to understand just how soon Florida’s higher inflation rates will cool down. As desirable of a market as it was before for factors like real estate, it’s undergone high interest since the start of the pandemic.

“I don’t think a responsible economist at this point can tell you the day or the month or maybe even the year that things will begin to look more normal… because we don’t quite know yet what the new normal is going to be,” Claar said.

DeSantis seems to think killing “woke-ism” is what’s important. The Florida economy, not so much.

And they are doubling down:

Media Matters took a look at the curriculum:

A cartoon Booker T. Washington distorting the history of the Civil War. A narrator explaining that embracing climate denialism is akin to participating in the Warsaw Uprising. An instructional video telling girls that conforming to gender stereotypes is a great way to embrace their femininity. A dramatization of the supposedly civilizing, benevolent era of British colonial rule in India.

These are just some of the episodes of PragerU Kids — an offshoot of right-wing propaganda organization PragerU — that Florida has just approved for use in its public school classrooms, reflecting and potentially accelerating the state’s hard conservative turn. 
“The state of Florida just announced that we are now becoming an official vendor,” said PragerU CEO Marissa Streit in a video heralding the news. She claimed that schools have “been hijacked by the left” and “used by union bosses” to pursue an agenda “not for our children.”

“We are just getting started — additional states are signing up,” Streit added.

Here’s one very special example tailor made for DeSantis’ FLorida:

Leo & Layla: Lessons in collective forgetting

Another series sees animated characters Leo and Layla traveling back in time to learn from historical figures. In one episode, the pair discuss slavery with a fictionalized Booker T. Washington.   

“I hate that our country had slavery,” Layla says. “Mr. Washington, sometimes do you ever wish you could have lived somewhere else? Like a different country?”

“That’s a great question, and I hate slavery too, but it’s been a reality everywhere in the world,” Washington responds.

The fictional Washington then elides the reality of the U.S. Civil War by adopting the passive voice. This flattens the process through which enslaved people freed themselves — alongside the Union Army — into an undifferentiated joint venture of the entire country.

“America was one of the first places on earth to outlaw slavery,” Washington says, getting the timeline completely reversed. “And hundreds of thousands of men gave their lives in a war that resulted in my freedom.”

“When you put it that way, it totally makes sense,” Leo responds.

Washington’s comforting account of history adds up to a conclusion squarely in line with DeSantis’ anti-critical race theory agenda. “Future generations are never responsible for sins of the past,” Washington reassures the children.

“OK I’ll keep doing my best to treat everyone well and won’t feel guilty about historical stuff,” Layla responds, now absolved and innocent.

PragerU Kids’ anti-anti-racism project includes a predictable deradicalization of Martin Luther King Jr., whom Leo and Layla travel to meet.

“My parents … taught me that racism, thinking people are better than or lesser than because of skin color, is wrong and to hate the wrong but never the wrongdoer,” the fictional King tells the kids.

“Wow. That’s so noble,” Layla responds, in an inadvertent but tellingly condescending way.

“My Christian faith directs me to love my neighbors, even when they act in ways I don’t like, and that’s always helped me remain peaceful,” King replies.

Like in the “Around the World” segments, Leo and Layla also have ample opportunities to promote Western chauvinism. 

“What’s up with the face?” Layla asks her brother at the beginning of their Christopher Columbus episode. “You look stressed.”

“I’m just doing some research,” Leo responds. “Was today weird for you?”

“Yeah. How’d you guess?” Layla says.

“Columbus Day,” Leo says.

“Or Native American Day, or Indigenous People’s Day — it’s weird, right?” Layla replies.

The kids then discuss how their teachers and peers got into arguments about whether Columbus should have his own holiday. 

“The side against Columbus says he was a really mean guy who spread slavery, disease, and violence to people who would’ve been better off if he’d never gone to the new world,” Leo says. “The side for him says he was a really courageous guy who loved exploring, inspired generations, and spread Christianity and Western civilization to people who really benefited from new ways of thinking and doing things.”

When the two kids meet Columbus, he assures them that he was justified in his violence against indigenous people. 

“The place I discovered was beautiful, but it wasn’t exactly a paradise of civilization, and the native people were far from peaceful,” he tells them.

Like the fictional Booker T. Washington, Columbus naturalizes slavery and the slave trade as something that happened everywhere.

“Slavery is as old as time and has taken place in every corner of the world,” Columbus says.

“Well, in our time we view slavery as being evil and terrible,” Layla corrects him.

“Ah. Magnifico! That’s wonderful,” Columbus responds. “I am glad humanity has reached such a time. But you said you’re from 500 years in the future? How can you come here to the 15th century and judge me by your standards from the 21st century?”

As this episode shows, the overriding theme of Leo and Layla’s adventures — and PragerU Kids in general — is that schools have made white children feel uncomfortable by teaching them about racism, colonialism, and other forms of oppression, and that that anxiety must be alleviated through a rigorous disavowal that the past plays any role in ordering the present. If historical wrongs committed by white people in the United States or Europeans must be acknowledged, we must teach that those injustices were undertaken with good intentions. Even more importantly, the past must remain firmly in the past, lest Leo and Layla lose their innocence and be forced to confront continuities of domination.

And this:

Closer to home, “Los Angeles: Mateo Backs the Blue” is anti-Black Lives Matter, pro-cop propaganda. The video describes a Mexican immigrant family that moved to Los Angeles and had their lives upended by the death of George Floyd, whom the narrator characterizes as “a Black man who resisted arrest.”  

“Activists claimed that police were targeting the Black community and purposefully killing unarmed Black men,” the narrator says. “As the false claims of racial targeting spread, so did the anger and violence.” 

Mateo develops fondness for his school’s “resource officer” — a euphemism, though one not unique to PragerU Kids — and comes to view the cop as “as a guide, a mentor, and a protector, not how he has seen police characterized in the news, as mean-spirited bullies.”

I particularly like this one:

In “How to Be a Victor and Not a Victim,” students learn that “people all around the world who have encountered great setbacks have gone on to overcome them, whether it’s poverty, disease, discrimination, or all of it combined.”

That, PragerU Kids says, is the mentality of winners. “Victims on the other hand, don’t believe that personal growth is possible,” the presenter — who, it should be noted here, is Black — instructs the kids

“Or, even worse, don’t believe it’s needed,” he continues. “Victims are often so busy blaming everything and everyone else for their problems that they don’t stop to think about how their own growth can make things better.”

I think this is actually an excellent lesson for the right wing. There is no group on earth that whines more about being victims than they do.

This stuff is going to be taught in schools in Florida. I expect there will be parents who will object. Will they have the same “rights” as the fascist friendly Moms for Liberty?

Trumpism

This is from the horse’s mouth:

There’s a little bit more to it than that, I’m afraid:

It’s the crime AND the cover-up

Going all the way back to Richard Nixon’s inexplicable decision to record himself committing crimes and then getting his secretary Rosemary Woods to take the fall for erasing the most incriminating segment, American political scandals have been defined by a simple credo: it’s not the crime that gets you, it’s the cover-up. For instance, in the Iran Contra affair, Lt Colonel Oliver North enlisted his secretary Fawn Hall to help him shred damaging documents and President Bill Clinton notoriously dispatched his secretary Betty Curie to retrieve gifts that he had given to former White House aide Monica Lewinsky during Independent Counsel Ken Starr’s investigation. Presidential hopeful John Edwards persuaded a campaign worker to take responsibility for fathering the child Edwards had with his mistress while his wife was dying of cancer.

In every case, these attempts to cover up their misdeeds by dispatching an underling to do their dirty work was eventually discovered. But these privileged, powerful leaders just can’t seem to help themselves..

The latest in this long line of such cover-ups is, naturally, Donald Trump. The indictment in the Mar-a-lago classified documents case was for 37 felonies including violations of the Espionage Act and obstruction of justice The Espionage Act charges apply to his willful withholding of national defense information while the obstruction charges apply to his attempts to cover up what he’d done when the federal government asked for them back.

His loyal manservant Walt Nauta was charged along with Trump with five counts of concealing or withholding documents and taking part in a conspiracy to obstruct justice. The government alleges that Nauta moved boxes containing classified documents on Trump’s orders and then lied to federal investigators about it.

On Thursday, another sad Trump employee. Mar-a-lago maintenance man named Carlos de Oliveira found himself named in a superseding indictment of Trump and Nauta. The charges include “Corruptly Altering, Destroying, Mutilating or Concealing a Document, Record, or Other Object,” and “Altering, Destroying, Mutilating, or Concealing an Object.” 

The indictment alleges that the day after investigators had requested “[a]ny and all surveillance records, videos, images, photographs and/or CCTV from internal cameras” at Trump’s beach club, Nauta told de Oliveira to meet with a Mar-a-Lago IT employee. De Oliveira allegedly told the employee that “the boss” wanted the server containing security footage of the storage room where the documents had been held to be “deleted.” The employee replied that he didn’t know how to do that and wasn’t sure he had the “rights” to and he told de Oliveira to discuss it with his supervisor.  It seems he discussed it with the Special Prosecutor.

The indictment has records showing that the maintenance man talked to Trump personally on the phone during this period and CNN reported earlier that de Oliveira was seen in surveillance footage helping Nauta move boxes out of the storage room. 

De Oliveira is also charged with lying to the FBI when he told them he’d never seen anything to do with the boxes when the feds had already obtained the surveillance footage showing Nauta and him moving the boxes all over the place. And although it’s not mentioned in this indictment the prosecutors had some very serious suspicions that de Oliveira had been involved in another attempted cover-up:

https://twitter.com/ktbenner/status/1684686035823874048?s=20

Trump actually did that gambit decades ago during a tax audit, claiming that important records were destroyed in a flood. This time the computer servers were intact and the federal government got them, offering the proof that the records were moved in and out at certain times correlating to the subpoena.

The feds have all kinds of text and phone records, even a Signal chat, that shows that Trump and his accomplices checking to makes sure de Olveira was loyal. CNN reports:

The new superseding indictment alleges that a little more than two weeks after the FBI’s August search of Mar-a-Lago, Nauta called another unidentified employee and said something to the effect of, “someone just wants make sure Carlos is good.” The employee, prosecutors alleged, assured Nauta of De Oliviera’s loyalty.

On the same day, the employee confirmed in a Signal chat group with Nauta and a representative of Trump’s political action committee — whom CNN has previously identified as Susie Wiles — that the maintenance worker was loyal. 

That same day, “Trump called De Oliveira and told De Oliveira that Trump would get De Oliveira an attorney,” the new indictment says.  

Susie Wiles is a very important figure in Trumpworld and it seems odd that she would be involved in loyalty tests for Mar-a-lago maintenance men. But then all of this is very mob-like behavior and she is a top consigliere so I guess it makes sense in that context.

It should be noted that Trump’s additional count pertains to that infamous Iran military document that Trump is on tape showing around to a couple of writers at his Bedminster Golf Club. I know this will come as a shock but it appears that Trump was lying when he said this:

They have the document.

After all this, as if to prove once again that he is completely clueless and without the slightest understanding of the depth of trouble he is in, Trump had the gall to request that he be allowed to discuss the classified documents they seized at Mar-a-lago and Bedminster instead of an official sensitive compartmented information facility (SCIF) as anyone else would have to do. He literally wants to keep blabbing about these sensitive documents in the unsecure scene of the crime. Maybe they could arrange to do it in that shower stall where he originally kept them. Needless to say the government is not ok with that.

The funny thing is that this superseding indictment wasn’t even the big Trump indictment story on Thursday. All day long, the media attention was focused on the Washington DC courthouse where the January 6th case’s grand jury met for over 7 hours as Trump’s lawyers were talking to the prosecutors.

According to CNN’s Kaitlin Collins:

Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social saying his lawyers met on Thursday to appeal to special counsel Jack Smith that “an indictment would only further destroy the country.”  Trump’s attorneys went into their meeting with the special counsel Thursday not to argue the facts of the case against indicting Trump, but instead with a broader appeal that indicting him would only cause more turmoil in the country’s political environment, two sources familiar with the meeting said. 

Basically, that’s Trump, as is his wont, once again issuing a veiled threat that charging him would be “dangerous” — saying in so many words, “nice little country you have here, be a shame if anything happened to it.” It no doubt fell on deaf ears. The consensus among the legal observers is that the indictment in the January 6th case is imminent and might even be coming down today.

So far, none of the indictments handed down have provoked anything more than some kooks and goofballs milling around courthouses but an indictment in the January 6th case might be different. Or it might not. In any case, he knows that the White House is his ultimate get-out-of-jail-free card and he will do anything to ensure that he wins it. And that’s why he’s in this mess in the first place.

Salon

Burnt toast

What was bad now looks worse

“If even half of it is true, then he’s toast. It’s a very detailed indictment and it’s very damning,” said former US attorney general William Barr in June after special counsel Jack Smith filed the first indictment in the classified documents case against Donald Trump.

On Thursday, Smith issued a superceding indictment with several more charges and a indicted a third co-conspirator: Mar-a-Lago maintenance employee Carlos De Oliveira. The trio are accused of attempting to destroy evidence sought by federal prosecutors. Beside attempting to destroy evidence, De Oliveira stands accused of lying to investigators.

“Never saw anything,” he told the FBI of Trump’s shuffled boxes. “Never saw nothing.” Those statements were false, the indictment alleges. De Oliveira “personally observed and helped move TRUMP’s boxes” containing classified materials.

The Guardian:

“I think this original indictment was engineered to last a thousand years and now this superseding indictment will last an antiquity,” Ty Cobb told CNN. “This is such a tight case, the evidence is so overwhelming.”

[…]

Trump was accused of attempting to destroy evidence and inducing someone else to destroy evidence. He also faces a new count under the Espionage Act, for keeping a document about US plans to attack Iran which he famously discussed on tape.

On his Truth Social platform Thursday night, the report continues, Trump whatabouted Joe Biden’s retention of government documents and called Smith “deranged.”

Ian Millhiser explains at Vox:

In any event, the biggest news in the new Florida indictment is that Trump allegedly instructed members of his staff to destroy surveillance video within his Mar-a-Lago residence, after Trump learned that the DOJ sought that video as part of its investigation into the national security documents kept at Trump’s residence.

The indictment alleges that, after Trump’s lawyers learned that the DOJ would seek the surveillance footage, Trump spoke to two employees: his valet, Walt Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira, the head of maintenance at Mar-a-Lago. These two employees then instructed a third Trump employee to delete the security footage — although it is not clear if the video was actually deleted. The indictment refers to an “attempt” to destroy security footage.

The indictment does not reveal what was said in many conversations among Nauta, De Oliveira, and Trump, but it does include a few key details linking Trump to the effort to destroy the video footage. At one point, De Oliveira allegedly told the third, unidentified Trump employee that “the boss” wanted the footage deleted. The indictment also alleges that Trump called De Oliveira and told his employee that he would get him a lawyer.

Once again, all are innocent until proved guilty. But what was bad for Trump now looks worse.

Some of MSNBC’s pundits observed that the advantage of Smith’s adding De Oliveira to the case means the jury will see all three men facing some of the same charges for some of the same crimes. This will take their focus off the uniqueness of a former president facing criminal prosecution. Jurors are more likely to see just three Joes accused in the same conspiracy, thus making it near-impossible for them to convict the employees and not “the boss” in what Barr in June described as a “very, very damning” case.

Another possible advantage for Smith is the added pressure for De Oliveira to flip — less likely if Trump is paying his lawyer.

No rotund singer is vocalizing. Yet. Still.

Trump : toast. Goose : cooked.

Ron’s DeFlation

What’s that sound?

Ron is as tone-deaf as his personality is flaccid.

The Lincoln Project’s Rick Wilson does something written on the X site, “Just heard that the Ron DeSantis social media team is unhappy with this ad.”

Also: “Presidential primary campaigns end slowly, then all at once.”

What does it say that the Early Bird Special set voted in this guy? Twice.

Maybe say “woke” more.

Not gonna help.

UPDATE: From Charlie Pierce.

“It has dawned on the Republican donor class that they have bought a dead parrot.”

“A tragedy all around”

Really????

Dreher is a big fan of modern fascist Viktor Orban, so I’m not surprised.

In case you don’t know, Nate Hochman was fired from the Desantis campaign this week after surreptitiously creating and disseminating two highly offensive videos, the first attacking transgender people (and Trump) and the second extolling DeSantis’ leadership using Nazi imagery:

https://twitter.com/MishaFitton/status/1683110894731948033?s=20

DeSantis was warned and so was Dreher. They didn’t care. Tim Miller wrote about the hiring months ago:

There is no role in which the old maxim “personnel is policy” is more apt than that of presidential speechwriter. And there is good reason for that role to hold its exalted place in the mythos of the office.

Trump’s “American Carnage” was no doubt shaped by the dark, nativist views of his Gollum-like muse. Obama’s West Wing–era hopey-changey optimism was colored by the earnest and youthful pod-bros who wrote for him. And Bush’s Chesterton-infused evangelizing was sculpted by the faith of Michael Gerson and Matthew Scully. To say nothing of the last century’s legendary scribes for Reagan, JFK, and FDR (whose speechwriters included a multi-Pulitzer-winning playwright).

So I perked up when I heard scuttlebutt a few weeks ago that Ron DeSantis had chosen a speechwriter not from the ranks of the GOP’s classically liberal old order, but from the brash online “new right” that is more animated by culture wars and MAGA identity politics than by free markets and free people.

This week the writer, Nate Hochman, revealed himself in the very online way one might expect of a Gen Z wannabe power staffer—by updating his Twitter bio:

Earlier this month, it was reported that Hochman had gone to work for the Republican Party of Florida; his updated bio indicates that he won’t be just on the comms team, but will be crafting the words that come out of the governor’s mouth. (I reached out to DeSantis’s office for comment on the hire but have not heard back by the time of publication.)

Hochman, a conservative writer who has earned more ink by the age of 25 than anyone this side of Justin Bieber, has garnered a reputation as a young MAGA whisperer. The New Republic tagged him as one of “the radical young intellectuals who want to take over the American right.” He’s written for the DispatchNational Review (where he was on staff), the Claremont Institute’s American Mind (where he interned), and more. Heck, even the Gray Lady turned to Hochman for a think piece about the secular culture war.

But like every MAGA intellectual (or “intellectual”) before him, Hochman, has found it necessary to cozy up to the movement’s gutter-dwelling racists in order to climb the ladder of influence.

As first reported by the Dispatch last year, Hochman participated in a Twitter Space with white nationalist virgin Nick Fuentes—and lavishly praised him. “We were just talking about your influence and we were saying, like, you’ve gotten a lot of kids ‘based’ and we respect that for sure,” Hochman said. “I literally said, I think Nick’s probably a better influence than Ben Shapiro on young men who might otherwise be conservative.”

The presidential candidate and former Arkansas governor wants to take the Republican Party in the…

He went on to discuss the merits and demerits of one of America’s most vile humans, saying the fact that he has said “super edgy things means that there’s a pretty strong ceiling to what you can actually accomplish in politics.”

“Edgy” is definitely one way to describe Holocaust denial!

When the Dispatch asked him about his Fuentes remarks, Hochman acknowledged that he said some “really stupid things, which I don’t actually believe”—but did not apologize.

In the intervening time The Bulwark was provided with the audio from the Twitter space—and it turns out that complimenting a white nationalist was not the only stupid thing Hochman uttered that day.

During his naked attempt to get Fuentes to think he was also based, Hochman says “when the man’s right, he’s right” in response to Fuentes’s claim that “women are goofy, okay, they should have no authority, they should have no authority over men.” Then, after Fuentes says that women “just really have no business in politics,” Hochman repeats his response: “When the man’s right, he’s right.”

Hochman later asked Fuentes how he plans to deal with the fact that “50 percent of American whites are, like, shitlibs now” if he wants to be successful in advancing white identity politics.

Women are goofy and shouldn’t be allowed in politics.

Half of white people are shitlibs.

Ron 2024.

Wanting to see if it’s true that Hochman “didn’t believe” the things he said in 2021 and was instead just trying to impress a racist douchebag, I listened to another longform interview from this past August during which the MAGA wunderkind laid out his ideology.

In this sitdown with the MAGA nonprofit American Moment, Hochman says, “I would just describe myself as a culture warrior first and foremost. I think that’s the easiest way to really think of it.” He believes that “at the forefront of what conservatism means” is “putting whatever it takes to resist the cultural revolution” brought on by the left. He says he hopes that the “Republican party agenda is going to cohere around the culture war as its organizing, totalizing force.”

As part of that #war, he offers a statement that echoes the message being put out by former President Trump saying that America’s “enemies are domestic not foreign.” Hochman says that it’s a “tragedy” that the debate around the “definition of marriage” is over and claims that we “wouldn’t be talking about transgenderism if we hadn’t first destroyed the meaning of marriage.”

With someone like Hochman aboard, it’s not a surprise that DeSantis’s first foray into foreign policy was a Tucker-approved written statement in which he tilted hard toward the party’s MAGA isolationist wing. Or that he backtracked from that in his first interview following the statement.

This will be one of the defining questions of the DeSantis campaign: Will pre-MAGA Ron re-emerge and bring aboard the GOP old guard? Or will he keep leaning toward the groypers and Orbánists and culture warriors on the nationalist “new right”?

The answer will depend on DeSantis himself—and on the staffers and advisers he chooses to surround himself with. Hochman’s hire is an early sign of which way it will go.

I totally see why DeSanbtis wanted this guy on his team. His entire campaign has been based on culture war tropes, including neo-fascist ideology. He knew. He liked it. Until it became obvious that his shitshow of a campaign strategy wasn’t working he was all in.

I guess Dreher is either a liar or a fool if he doesn’t understand the relationship between fascism and Orbanism.

Oh look…

Even Fox can’t deny it anymore.

Dean Baker with the deets:

Soaring Structure Investment Makes Up for Slowing Consumption, as GDP Grows at 2.4 Percent in Q2

The economy grew at a 2.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter, as strong investment growth offset slower consumption growth. Consumption spending grew at a just a 1.6 percent annual rate, down from a 4.6 percent rate in the first quarter. However, non-residential investment grew at 7.7 percent rate. Investment accounted for 0.99 percentage points of the growth in the quarter, only slightly less than the 1.12 pp attributable to consumption.

Soaring Factory Investment Continues to be Major Factor Driving Growth

All the categories of investment showed healthy growth in the quarter, with equipment investment growing at a 10.8 percent annual rate after falling the prior two categories. Those drops were likely driven largely by continuing supply chain problems with cars and semiconductor chips.

Structure investment increased at a 9.7 percent annual rate after growing at a 15.8 percent annual rate the last two quarters. This is driven by factory construction growing at a 94.0 percent annual rate. This is the clean energy and chip boom, resulting from the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act.

Investment in intellectual products grew at a modest 3.9 percent rate. The weakness is partly attributable to the writers strike, as investment in the entertainment category fell at a 1.2 percent rate after growing at a 5.5 percent rate in the first quarter.  

Service Consumption Drives Growth in the Quarter

There was a huge surge in vehicle sales in the first quarter, which led to a 16.3 percent growth rate for durable goods. Vehicle sales fell somewhat in the second quarter, resulting in a modest 0.4 percent growth rate for durable goods. This was offset by a healthy 2.1 percent growth rate in consumption of services.

This is a sustainable pace, similar to the growth rate we were seeing before the pandemic. It is also encouraging that the pace of growth in health care spending seems to be relatively tame. Nominal spending on health care services did increase slightly as a share of total consumer spending in the quarter, rising from 15.9 percent to 16.0 percent of total consumption. However, this is down from 17.1 percent before the pandemic.

If health care spending remains contained, this will leave a lot more room for other areas to grow. However, an important caution is that nominal spending on prescription drugs rose at a 11.7 percent rate in the second quarter, after rising at a 10.9 percent rate in the first quarter. If this rapid pace of growth continues, it will be a problem.

Housing Continues to Contract at Modest Pace

Residential construction fell at a 4.2 percent rate in the second quarter after falling at a 4.0 percent rate in the first quarter. This subtracted 0.16 percentage points from growth in the quarter. Housing construction fell at double digit rates in the last three quarters of 2022, subtracting an average of 1.18 pp from growth in these quarters.

Residential investment is likely to be a modest negative in the rest of this year. The big falloff in mortgage refinancing, the costs of which get counted in residential investment, is in the past. However, there will be some continued slowing as the falloff in housing starts we saw since the Fed began raising rates, shows up in a drop in homes under construction. This effect has been delayed by the large backlog of unfinished homes created by pandemic supply chain issues.

Government Spending Grows at a 2.6 Percent Rate

The growth of government spending slowed to a 2.6 percent annual rate after growing at a 5.0 percent rate in the first quarter. The first quarter’s growth was driven by a 10.5 percent rise in non-defense federal spending. Spending in this category tends to be erratic, it fell at a 1.1 percent rate in this quarter. State and local spending grew at a 3.6 percent rate, down somewhat from the 4.4 percent rate in the first quarter.  

Inventories Grew by Just $9.3 Billion in the Second Quarter

The rate of inventory accumulation plunged to just $3.5 billion in the first quarter, a drop from $136.5 billion in the fourth quarter. That falloff subtracted 2.14 pp from the quarter’s growth. The patterns in inventory accumulation have been even more erratic than usual in the pandemic and recovery due to supply chain issues.

The first quarter pace is still unusually low. A more normal pace would be in the neighborhood of $60 billion. This means we are likely to see some acceleration in inventory accumulation in the second half, which will be a modest boost to growth. However, this is offset by the fact that a large share of inventories come from imports, which means that a rising trade deficit will be a drag on growth.  

Healthy Q2 Growth Implies Strong Productivity Growth in the Quarter

The index of aggregate hours from the establishment survey data was essentially flat in the second quarter, while self-employment was down from the first quarter. Value-added in the non-farm business sector (the numerator in the productivity calculation) grew at a 2.4 percent rate in the second quarter. This means that we should see a very strong productivity figure for the quarter.

That follows a reported decline of 2.1 percent for the first quarter. Quarterly, productivity data are always erratic, but have been even more erratic than usual in the pandemic recovery. The growth rate we are likely to see for the second quarter should put the post-pandemic productivity growth path somewhat ahead of the 1.0 percent rate we saw in the decade before the pandemic. If we see the promised benefits of AI, we would expect to see a faster growth rate.

Inflation Continues to Slow

The core PCE rose at a 3.8 percent annual rate in Q2, down from a 4.9 percent rate in Q1. It had peaked at 6.0 percent rate in the second quarter of 2021. With the prices of most inputs now stabilized or falling, and rental inflation slowing sharply, this downward path should continue for the second half of 2023.

On the Whole a Very Solid GDP Report

There is little not to like in this report. The economy is growing at a solid sustainable pace, with strong investment growth making up for slower consumption growth. Inflation is slowing and likely to continue to do so. And, we will get a very strong productivity number for the quarter. It would be difficult to envision a better picture at this point in the recovery.

Supporting the Big Lie is no typical infraction

Overthrowing democracy is not like a health care debate or a highway bill

A good piece by Mark Z Barabak in the LA Times:

Donald Trump lost the 2020 election. That is an incontrovertible fact.

And yet for many Republicans — including most of those seeking the party’s 2024 nomination — Trump’s irrefutable loss and direct responsibility for the Jan. 6 insurrection are a verity they dodge and duck.

At least right now.

Florida’s flailing governor, Ron DeSantis offers a prime example.

The won’t-back-down-culture warrior, who gleefully stoops to swat at teachers and transgender people, meekly tucks his tail when it comes to Trump’s Big Lie and Jan. 6.

DeSantis won’t say if he believes President Biden was duly elected and suggests it’s wrong to call the assault on the Capitol “a plan to somehow overthrow the government of the United States” — though how else would you define a violent attempt to overturn the result of a free and fair election?

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott blames the attempted coup on “the folks who broke into the Capitol” but not Trump — which is like faulting the gunman for a murder and absolving the mob boss who ordered the hit.

Scott and others in the Republican presidential field glancingly acknowledge Biden’s victory (mumble, mumble) then go on to amplify provocative, unfounded claims of voter fraud and other election irregularities, which serves only to legitimize Trump’s bogus claims.

Their motivation isn’t hard to figure out.

Polls have consistently shown most Republicans buying into Trump’s lie about a stolen election, or at least telling pollsters they do. The sentiment is strongest among the likeliest GOP voters; roughly a third of the party base might be described as Bergdorf Goodman Republicans — those willing to back Trump even if he raped a woman in the department store’s dressing room.

The candidate most bluntly calling out Trump’s mendacity — New Jersey’s ex-Gov. Chris Christie — and the one most directly associated with thwarting Trump’s failed attempt to reverse the election — former Vice President Mike Pence — are both running far out of contention for the nomination.

Pence may not even qualify for the stage at next month’s scheduled Republican presidential debate.

Yeesh.

There is, of course, nothing new about a candidate running to the right (or left) to secure their party’s nomination, then scurrying toward the center in the general election. It’s a well-thumbed page from the campaign playbook.

But today’s Republicans aren’t simply running rightward. They’re running “Trumpward,” as GOP strategist Gunner Ramer put it, “scared of alienating the always-Trump bloc within the Republican Party.”

Ramer is political director for the Republican Accountability Project, a group working to deprogram members of the Cult of Trump.

As the 2022 midterms demonstrated, election denialism is a non-starter with most voters outside the MAGA minority. The GOP lost winnable races in Nevada, Arizona, New Hampshire and elsewhere around the country, turning an anticipated red wave into a pink puddle, by fielding numerous candidates who parroted Trump and his incessant lies.

Naturally, if he’s the 2024 nominee, Trump will keep it up. But if someone else emerges to lead the GOP, watch how he or she does an about-face, moving to get on the right side of most voters.

In Nevada, Adam Laxalt was one of the architects of efforts to overturn Biden’s victory and he recklessly fobbed off Trump’s falsehoods throughout the 2022 GOP Senate primary. Then, once nominated, Laxalt allowed as how, yes, Biden had certainly won the White House and was legitimately president.

(Laxalt was among those deservedly defeated.)

In California, 2022 controller candidate Lanhee Chen steadfastly refused throughout the primary season to say whether he’d voted for Trump for president. Then, lo, just a few weeks later Chen revealed to CalMatters that he’d never cast a ballot for Trump and wouldn’t in 2024.

(Chen also lost in the general election, though given California’s Democratic hegemony he doubtless would have been defeated even if he’d tattooed “I ❤️ Joe” to his forehead.)

In 2012, during the Republican primaries, a strategist for Mitt Romney discussed his boss’ positioning in the race.

Asked if he was concerned that Romney’s rightward movement would complicate efforts to win in November, Eric Fehrnstrom glibly responded, “I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it.”

Fehrnstrom’s statement was one of those gaffes in which he’d merely said the quiet part out loud — though his candor certainly didn’t help Romney, who was already dogged by an image of ideological elasticity.

Some Republicans may try to Etch A Sketch away their timidity toward Trump come the fall campaign. But voters should remember which candidates had the guts to speak truth and at what point in the election season.

Spreading Trump’s corrosive lies — or, at the least, enabling his mendacity by failing to call him out— is no typical infraction, like blithely promising a balanced budget or overstating the benefits of reforming the healthcare system. It’s a knife directly in the heart of our democracy.

They say character is doing the right thing when nobody’s looking.

But sometimes it’s doing the right thing when everyone is watching.

Bergdorf Goodman Republicans? It’s a little bit counterintuitive since most of the people who stand by Trump-the-rapist have probably never heard of the place.

That reboot doesn’t look so good

He sounds a little uhm — over-stimulated to me.

Meanwhile, one of the most right wing members of congress doesn’t care for this idea that slavery was actually beneficial for the enslaved:

And …. DeSantis, of course, goes after Donalds:

Education Commissioner Manny Diaz, Jr. affirmed to superintendents Wednesday afternoon that the standards will be approved in their current form.

Responding to Donalds, Diaz slammed the congressman as “supposedly conservative” and part of the federal government trying to “dictate Florida’s education standards.”

“This new curriculum is based on truth,” he said. “We will not back down from teaching our nation’s true history at the behest of a woke @WhiteHouse, nor at the behest of a supposedly conservative congressman.”

Jeremy Redfern, the press secretary for Gov. Ron DeSantis, also called Donalds a “supposed conservative.”

“Supposed conservatives in the federal government are pushing the same false narrative that originated from the @WhiteHouse,” Redfern said. “Florida isn’t going to hide the truth for political convenience.”

“Maybe the congressman shouldn’t swing for the liberal media fences like @VP [Kamala Harris],” DeSantis’ press secretary continued.

In response, Donalds noted he “expressed support for the vast majority of the new African American history standards” but only opposed “one sentence that seemed to dignify the skills gained by slaves as a result of their enslavement.”

“Anyone who can’t accurately interpret what I said is disingenuous and is desperately attempting to score political points,” Donalds continued. “Just another reason why l’m proud to have endorsed President Donald J. Trump!”

I hate to tell Donalds but DeSantis’ stand is very Trumpy.