Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

Village Spin, Repackaged

by digby

The Politico raises its sleepy little head and sees that something strange happened yesterday:

All the evidence pointing to monster Republican House gains this fall—the Scott Brown upset win in Massachusetts, the scary polling numbers in once-safely Democratic districts, the ever-rising number of Democratic seats thought to be in jeopardy—was contradicted Tuesday.

In the only House race that really mattered to both parties—the special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha in Pennsylvania’s 12th District—Republicans failed spectacularly, losing on a level playing field where, in this favorable environment, they should have run roughshod over the opposition.

Given the resources the GOP poured into the effort to capture the seat and the decisiveness of the defeat—as it turned out, it wasn’t really that close—the outcome casts serious doubt on the idea that the Democratic House majority is in jeopardy.

Naturally, they chose to focus on the one race where both parties ran conservatives, but that’s par for the course. And the lesson is clear:

Just as important, he made plain that he was a Murtha-style Democrat– pro-gun, anti-abortion and unafraid to cross his national party. Critz opposed the healthcare bill and kept his distance from Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi – both of whom Republicans tried to tie him to.

Van Hollen pointed out that, while he may have come out against the healthcare bill, Critz also opposed repealing it.

[…]

In districts like Critz’s, though, the lesson appeared to be that Democrats would be better off keeping their national leaders away—or perhaps only bringing in select figures who can still appeal to centrists, such as former President Bill Clinton, who appeared in Johnstown on Sunday with Critz and Murtha’s widow.

Evidently, Obama can no longer appeal to “centrists.” Which means he’s a “liberal.” Which makes me a leftist revolutionary.

They did manage to notice one other thing, although they don’t elaborate:

The race marked the third highly-contested, fair-fight special House election that the GOP has dropped in the last year.

I guess that’s something.

The village doesn’t know how to interpret what’s going on in the electorate, so they keep coming back to the same thing, even when they think they aren’t: the electorate is freaking out because the Democrats are too liberal. What else could it possibly be?

I don’t have “the answer” to what motivates voters. If I had to guess, free floating anxiety about this overwhelming number of problems, from the economy to the environment to terrorism to social upheaval is a big part of what’s got people going, along with the sense that Washington seems incapable of dealing with it. (I also think the feeling that Obama hasn’t delivered on “change,” which he allowed everyone to define in their own way, is a big part of it on the left.) But it’s clear that whatever is going on isn’t that voters in general are desperate to return to conservative policies. I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for Politico to figure that out, but hopefully the Democrats, at least, will do so.

Update: Mike Elk points out that Critz had a winning message on one issue that Dems everywhere can agree upon. If the Democrats want to take that one national, this is a perfect environment for it.

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Is California Going To Have An Earthquake Next Month?

by digby

Could be …

New Poll by Winograd Shows Harman in Trouble

Poll of nearly 1,000 Likely Primary Voters Shows Incumbent With Just 43% Support

(Marina del Rey) A new poll of likely primary voters shows incumbent Jane Harman with just 43 percent support in California’s 36th congressional district, where Harman is facing a formidable challenge from Marcy Winograd. The figure is far below the 50% considered safe for incumbents, and reflects the mood demonstrated by the recent primary elections in which established D.C. figures were defeated by challengers.

The IVR poll by the Merriman River Group for the Winograd for Congress campaign was conducted among a random sample of 991 likely primary voters and had a margin of error of 3.2 percent.

Merriman pollster Matthew Fitch notes, “Harman’s support of 43% among likely Democratic voters can be considered weak for a long-term incumbent.” In contrast, the Merriman poll memo concludes, “…approximately 70% of all voters who have formed an opinion of Winograd are likely to vote for her.”

Winograd was an early Blue America endorsee and someone who is near and dear to Howie, John and me as she’s a local and a friend. She’s also a real, true blue progressive who far better represents her district on the west side of LA than the Blue Dog Jane Harman, who describes herself as the “best Republican in the Democratic Party.”

Let’s hope the anti-incumbent tsunami comes ashore in Venice, California on June 8th.

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Conference Alert

by digby

If you happen to have some time to spare to come to DC for the America’s Future Now conference next month, it promises to be interesting and informative:

America’s Future Now! — the biggest progressive conference of the year —
convenes June 7-9 in Washington, DC. Register here.

Join Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Alan Grayson, Arianna Huffington, Markos
Moulitsas, Van Jones, Gov. Howard Dean, Rep. Donna Edwards,
Rep. Jan Schakowsky, Richard Trumka, Andy Stern, Bob Herbert, Juan Cole,
Digby, Deepak Bhargava, James Rucker, Drew Westen, Katrina vanden Heuvel,
Robert Kuttner, Lizz Winstead and thousands more.

Be part of the great debate “Progressives In The Obama Era,” at which
everyone in attendance will get to participate.

Progressives must lead to make sure 2010 is not the year of the Tea Party.
Jobs, clean energy, fair workplaces, immigration, health care and human
rights are at all stake. Let’s show Washington how to fight!

Register today, and learn more about the conference, here.

Campaign for America’s Future is one of the few DC-based advocacy groups out there that really plugs into the netroots and the grassroots for ideas and messaging. And they are doing tons of great work bringing together all facets of the progressive movement for collective action on our agenda. Nobody is quite like them. If you have the ability to attend this conference, you’ll get a lot out of it.

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Dday’s Tick-Tock

by digby

Following up on my post from earlier featuring Ryan Grim’s rundown of the Financial reform shennanigans yesterday, be sure to read Dday’s also. It’s a pip, with a lot of very useful context. And bookmark his Fin-reg tag. He’s doing great coverage on this all around.

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Arrogant Randian (Is there any other kind?)

by digby

Via Kevin Drum, I see that Rand Paul is an arrogant ass. That’s shocking news. Usually right wing Randians are such humble, loveable types. But it also turns out that our man Rand isn’t quite the civil libertarian he’s touted to be either. Adam Serwer reports that while he’s good on the Patriot Act, his strong civil liberties positions aren’t what they’re cracked up to be:

In an interview with Scott Horton last year, Paul said that “torture is always wrong,” but hasn’t spoken up on the issue since, and it’s unclear whether he views “enhanced interrogation” as torture. When it comes to due process for people accused of terrorism, Paul is indistinguishable from the neoconservatives who tried to prevent his rise. Early on, Paul reversed his position favoring Gitmo’s closure and issued a statement saying he supported the use of military commissions:

Foreign terrorists do not deserve the protections of our Constitution…These thugs should stand before military tribunals and be kept off American soil. I will always fight to keep Kentucky safe and that starts with cracking down on our enemies.

It’s clear from the numbers that most of the detainees who have been imprisoned at Guantanamo were not “our enemies,” Of the 800 detainees, the government can only identify 10 percent who they are “certain” went on to engage in terrorist activity afterwards, and independent estimates put the numbers much lower. At best, one can say that the vast majority of those released were released without being convicted, which makes Paul’s claim that they are all “thugs” and “enemies” dubious. Paul’s Gitmo NIMBYism and support for ineffectual military commissions as a method of trying people he’s preemptively declared guilty puts him firmly alongside the likes of Dick and Liz Cheney on due process and terrorism. At the nexus of immigration and national security, Paul becomes downright incoherent:

I believe our greatest national security threat is our lack of security at the border. On 9/11, 16 of 19 hijackers were here on ‘legal’ student Visas but were not in school or in the states they were supposed to be in.

The 9/11 terrorists came in through the front door. Ergo, we need to secure the border. What? Paul also supports “a moratorium on Visas from about ten rogue nations or anybody that has traveled to those nations.” That’s even more extreme that the Obama administration’s now-abandoned racial profiling lite policy — you’re a British citizen who went to visit relatives in Pakistan lately? Banned.It should be said that Paul appears to have a fairly consistent — if nativist — constitutional philosophy: The Constitution grants certain inalienable rights to Americans but not to foreigners. That shouldn’t be mistaken for Constitutional fidelity, the Constitution distinguishes between “citizens” and “persons” for a reason, and foreigners charged with crimes in the U.S. have always been given the same due process rights as anyone else, precisely because freedom is as much about what government is allowed to do to you as much as it is about what you are allowed to do. So is Paul better than “most Democratic Senators” or Obama? Outside the PATRIOT Act, he seems to be your average Republican.

That means he’s also pretty much your average Democrat, unfortunately. More importantly, though, it takes away his one redeeming value. If he’s not good on civil liberties, he’s got absolutely nothing going for him. On everything else he is so far off the map that he makes, well, Mitch McConnell, look moderate by comparison. He’s a teabagger’s dream (and proud to wear the label) but Paul is a progressive’s nightmare when it comes to taxing millionaires and regulating business. The worst of all possible worlds in fact. And his views on equal rights are downright stomach churning.

Update: I’m reminded that he’s anti-war. Let’s see what he says about that in the campaign. He’s running as a Republican in a southern state that has two big military bases, Fort Knox and Fort Campbell. I’m going to bet we’ll see some serious hedging on the GWOT.

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The People’s Business

by digby

Ryam Grim has the best recap I’ve seen so far of the events on the Senate floor last night during the financial reform debate. While we were all riveted to the election, the Republicans showed their true colors. When they aren’t filibustering unemployment insurance they are blocking efforts to help average consumers in their dealings with banks:

Tom Harkin was stifled in his effort Tuesday evening to bring a measure to the Senate floor that would cap ATM fees at 50 cents. Harkin first introduced his amendment on May 4 and has yet to get a vote. With the close of debate on Wall Street reform rapidly approaching, Harkin went straight to the floor to ask the chamber’s consent to vote, conceding that he would be satisfied with a mere five minutes of debate. Banks, both small and large, oppose the amendment and argue that capping fees will reduce the number of privately available ATMs at convenience stores and elsewhere as well as the number of bank-owned cash machines. Harkin says that an average ATM transaction costs 37 cents. Harkin’s amendment is just one of several consumer friendly measures that has support but is being cut off by Republican objections and the coming end of the floor debate. “I don’t think it’s a good idea to cut off good consumer amendments because of cloture,” said Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.). Cantwell, along with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), is sponsoring an amendment that would reinstate Glass-Steagall, which forces banks to split off investment banking and commercial banking. Cantwell said that the managers of the bill on the floor are telling her that her amendment is not germane and so can’t be considered after cloture.

But that’s not all. They’re doing Wall Street’s bidding as well:

Senate Republicans blocked Democrats from voting on three amendments Tuesday that are strongly opposed by Wall Street. The combination of the GOP obstruction and Democratic leadership urgency to finish the bill threatens to cut off key consumer protection amendments. Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the top-ranking Republican on the Banking Committee, rose to object to a vote on one of the most talked-about amendments, cosponsored by Sens. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.). Levin-Merkley would ban commercial banks from trading for their own benefit with taxpayer-backed money. Shelby also objected to an amendment from Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) that would rein in predatory practices of payday lenders and one from Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) that would have banned naked credit default swaps, which were at the heart of the financial crisis. Dorgan’s amendment was expected to fail, but Levin-Merkley had been surging in recent days. Merkley took the Senate floor after Harkin and once again called his amendment up for a vote, but Shelby objected again on behalf of coleagues. Merkley demanded to know who was objecting. “Myself, and a lot of others around here,” he said, waving his hand at the GOP side of the aisle. Merkley asked him to name names. Shelby replied that he was objecting on behalf of himself. (Only one Senator is needed to object.) Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) has an amendment that would allow states to cap interest rates on credit cards. He said Tuesday that he was working with Dodd to get a vote and that it has a chance to be ruled germane. But the only amendment that is certain to be ruled germane, said a Democratic leadership aide, is one that makes it weaker. From Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.), the measure would exempt auto dealers from the purview of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that the bill would create. The only way for an amendment to come to the floor without unanimous consent, which Republicans can object to, is to file cloture to defeat a filibuster. That requires 60 votes but, more importantly, takes several days of floor time.
And the Senate has a war it needs to fund.

Make that, the Democrats have a war they need to fund. They are, after all, in charge, and they make the schedule.

It was quite an evening. And there’s more of this unfolding as I write.

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Rand Paul: Gracious In Victory

by tristero

This will surely play well to Rand Paul’s proto-fascist base as will this. But, as the incidents of Paul’s obnoxious, self-righteous behavior start to pile up, as they surely will, the question is whether Kentucky voters will think such an arrogant, immature, vindictive little twerp is ready for prime time.

If I were Jack Conway, I would do everything I could to encourage Paul to get deeper in touch with his inner churl.

You Caught A Fish HOW Big?

by tristero

Via Why Evolution Is True comes the an angler’s dream come true. And yes, it’s real. I think.

Sending Messages

by digby

Alex Castellanos just said that Kentucky proves that Republicans want Republicans to be more conservative and the Democrats want Democrats to be more conservative.

That is utter bullshit. They are talking about Rand Paul as if he’s the second coming of morning in America, true, but the fact is that Jack Conway has won the Democratic primary against a far more conservative opponent — and Dem turnout was way higher that GOP turnout, Paul-mania notwithstanding. The November narrative is turned on its axis.

Teabaggers may be sending their party a message, but progressives are sending one to theirs as well and it isn’t to be more conservative. (And both of them are saying one thing in unison: would you mind if we pick our own representatives please?)

If you’d like to send a message the Democrats can understand, go here. (We’ve got a big primary challenge coming up here in California next month that could send shockwaves through the establishment: Winograd vs Harman. It could happen.)

Update: Sestak wins! It looks like Pennsylvania Democrats don’t like being told they have to vote for Republicans either. Let the games begin.

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Throwdown

by digby

If you are one of those odd people who thinks watching election returns is more boring than watching paint dry, switch over to C-Span 2 and watch the US Senate go at it on the floor over Financial Reform. Let’s just say it’s not something you see everyday.

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