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Nobody like Marge

She’s a pariah even among the wingnuts:

House Freedom Caucus members took a momentous vote Friday on Marjorie Taylor Greene’s future with the group, according to three people familiar with the matter — but it’s not yet clear whether she’s been officially ejected.

The right-flank group took up Greene’s status amid an internal push, first reported by POLITICO, to consider purging members who are inactive or at odds with the Freedom Caucus. Greene’s close alliance with Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and her accompanying criticism of colleagues in the group, has put her on the opposite side of a bloc that made its name opposing GOP leadership.

While her formal status in the conservative group remains in limbo, the 8 a.m. Friday vote — which sources said ended with a consensus against her — points to, at least, continued strong anti-Greene sentiment.

A spokesperson for Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.) declined to comment on the group’s vote as well as the official status of Greene’s membership. Perry said in an interview last week that he had denied requests to remove members from the group of roughly 35 House Republicans. A spokesperson for Greene did not respond to a request for comment.

The uncertainty that now shrouds Greene’s status is partly due to the tightly held bylaws that govern official Freedom Caucus decisions. Even before the Greene vote, members questioned whether the group’s rule that 80 percent of the Freedom Caucus must support any formal decision applies to all matters — or just legislation.

Interviews for this story reflected lingering interest in trying to reconcile differences with Greene before any formal action is taken, and a suggestion that the chair or board could separately intervene to slow down any removal.

Discussions about Greene’s Freedom Caucus status were simmering for weeks, and the Friday vote occurred shortly after a high-profile clash between her and Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), a member of the conservative group’s board.

Greene confronted Boebert on the House floor, calling the Coloradan “a little bitch” and claiming Boebert copied her on a measure aimed at quickly impeaching President Joe Biden. After the exchange was first reported in The Daily Beast, Greene confirmed the fight and doubled down, adding another pejorative.

Should Greene ultimately exit the Freedom Caucus, it is likely to trigger a greater feud within the House GOP as conservatives wrestle over how closely to work with their own party leaders. McCarthy’s team is still struggling to quell an ongoing rebellion propelled by Freedom Caucus members.

The public cracks in Greene’s relationships with her fellow conservatives also come as the House’s right flank continues to debate when to abandon party unity to advance its ideological goals.

Former Rep. Justin Amash (I-Mich.) is the closest example of the Freedom Caucus previously weighing whether to remain open to a member who no longer aligned with the rest of the group. Amash, who had called for then-President Donald Trump to be impeached before leaving the GOP, resigned before the Freedom Caucus acted further — saying he didn’t want to be a “distraction.”

She’s a uniquely unlikable person even by MAGA standards and that’s saying something.

She’s getting weirder than ever:

It just gets dumber and dumber

Trump posted this himself

Meanwhile, this is happening in the US Congress:

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) on Monday challenged a labor union president to a physical fight in response to some mean tweets.

The senator and Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien have been feuding since March, when O’Brien referred to Mullin, a business owner, as a “greedy CEO” during a Senate committee hearing.

Mullin brought up the exchange during another Senate hearing last Wednesday, prompting O’Brien to respond online, where he called the senator “JohnWayne” and a “moron” in one tweet, and a “clown” and a “fraud” in another.

“Quit the tough guy act in these senate hearings,” O’Brien wrote in a tweet that mocked Mullin’s height. “You know where to find me. Anyplace, Anytime cowboy.”

After apparently thinking about it for five days, on Monday, Mullin suggested they set a date and location for a mixed martial arts showdown ― “for charity.”

“An attention-seeking union Teamster boss is trying to be punchy after our Senate hearing,” Mullin wrote. “Okay, I accept your challenge. MMA fight for charity of our choice. Sept 30th in Tulsa, Oklahoma. I’ll give you 3 days to accept.”

Mullin fought and won in three mixed martial arts matches in 2006 and 2007, according to Sherdog.com. He was elected to the House in 2012 and won a special Senate election last year.

In 2018, Mullin Twitter-challenged Democratic lawyer Michael Avenatti to meet him on the mat. The two never fought and Avenatti has since been sentenced to prison for ripping off his clients.

O’Brien, for this part, has indeed projected a punchy image since winning a 2021 election to lead the Teamsters, having campaigned on a promise of aggressive organization and contract negotiation.

Hookay. That’s a US Senator doing that. How about some idiot tech bro billionaires?

Two of the world’s most high-profile technology billionaires – Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg – have agreed to fight each other in a cage match.

Mr Musk posted a message on his social media platform Twitter that he was “up for a cage fight” with Mr Zuckerberg.

Mr Zuckerberg, the boss of Facebook and Instagram parent company Meta, then posted a screenshot of Mr Musk’s tweet with the caption “send me location”.

“The story speaks for itself,” a Meta spokesperson told the BBC.

Mr Musk then replied to Mr Zuckerberg’s response with: “Vegas Octagon.”

The Octagon is the competition mat and fenced-in area used for Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) bouts. The UFC is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Oh Dear God. And then this:

https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1673053159172833280?s=20

Just… no. This is too dumb even for America. Make it stop.

Bannon and RFKJr, two peas in a pod

Media Mzatters took a deep dive into this tragic relationship. It’s not pretty:

Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon has spent nearly two years promoting anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist and Democratic presidential primary candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on his War Room podcast in a mutually beneficial relationship that could have disastrous public health consequences for the country and the world. 

Both men have used their substantial platforms to spread incorrect information about vaccines and COVID-19, which could now reach an even wider audience given Kennedy’s longshot campaign. 

Bannon reportedly encouraged Kennedy to run against President Joe Biden in the Democratic Party primary, believing he could be “both a useful chaos agent in [the] 2024 race and a big name who could help stoke anti-vax sentiment around the country,” according to CBS’ Robert Costa. Other right-wing pundits have similarly exploited Kennedy’s run as an attempt to undermine Biden’s support among Democrats with the aim of weakening him in the general election.

Costa’s reporting aligns with Bannon’s public support of Kennedy on War Room. Since July 2021, Bannon has interviewed and provided a platform for Kennedy, his publisher, and colleagues involved in his anti-vaccine work. In addition, Bannon has repeatedly hyped Kennedy’s book, a discredited diatribe against Dr. Anthony Fauci, the former head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the face of the United States’ effort to mitigate the risks of COVID-19. Even the magazine of the Trump-aligned Claremont Institute concluded that “Kennedy’s book has all the objectivity of The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.”

Even relative to other right-wing media, Bannon’s podcast is a hotbed of conspiracy theories, many of which relate directly to COVID-19 and vaccines. He frequently pushes junk science from discredited charlatans like Naomi Wolf, has celebrated efforts to disrupt vaccine distribution, and claimed the pandemic was everything from a way to eradicate religion to a form of global war deliberately unleashed by China.

Given this feverish and paranoid atmosphere, it’s not surprising that Bannon amplified Kennedy’s longstanding efforts to discredit safe and effective vaccines, including those that protect against COVID-19, and has now latched onto his nascent campaign. Both are ecumenical and opportunistic in their conspiracism, including pushing QAnon messages and influencers

[…]

n July 24, 2021, Bannon interviewed Kennedy twice over the course of two hour-long shows. Although Kennedy’s The Real Anthony Fauci wouldn’t be released for months, Bannon was already hyping it. Tony Lyons, the book’s publisher, would make frequent appearances on War Room in the coming months. 

Bannon mentioned the book and disparagingly referenced a report from the Center for Countering Digital Hate that listed Kennedy as one of the 12 biggest spreaders of misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines.

“When you make your speeches, do your analysis, you’ve got your center, you put out information, you put out reports — do you think that you’re adding to, or your focus is on digital hate?” Bannon asked. “Does that concept apply to any of the work that you’re doing?”

“Not only does it not have anything to do with digital hate, it has to do — we don’t put out any misinformation,” Kennedy responded.

Sound difficulties forced Bannon to cut the interview short and return to it during the following hour’s broadcast. In reintroducing Kennedy, Bannon again promoted the upcoming book, referring to it as something “I know our audience is going to want to pile into.” The interview lasted for roughly half of that episode.

[…]

In the lead-up to 2023, Bannon’s War Room had helped lay the groundwork for an old school ratfucking. The next step would be gassing up a spoiler candidate to serve as a “chaos agent.”

Kennedy filed his statement of candidacy on April 5. Bannon and his guests immediately began framing Kennedy as a fellow traveler who shared their same enemies, even if not all of their exact policies.

On April 10, days before Kennedy’s official launch announcement on April 19, Bannon and Wolf discussed the opposition he would face from the Democratic National Committee.

“Any campaign that made a crusade of Wuhan lab, Tony Fauci, the pharmaceutical-industrial complex, and the vax and everything about vaccines, right, all the science and logic of it, would be something that would help the American people. Do you agree with me on that?” Bannon asked. “And look, he’s a very progressive, liberal Democrat and I’m a right-wing populist, but something like that would help the country just basically sort through these issues that have come up so big over the last couple of years, ma’am?”

“Yeah, I’m actually scared to answer that publicly because when you like him, the entire legacy media gets angry at both of you,” Wolf replied.

After outlining how great a Kennedy challenge would be for Democrats, Wolf painted him as a victim of the party’s structures. 

“I am not at all persuaded that the DNC, which I see as a group of criminals at this point, are going to let any challenger who’s not wholly owned by the DNC, and wholly owned by whoever owns the DNC, bring up those issues,” Wolf said. “I think there’s going to be a massive mobilization against a campaign like his, and a campaign like Marianne Williamson’s.” 

Two days later, Bannon devoted an entire episode to discussing a speech Kennedy had just made at Hillsdale College, interspersing long clips of his remarks with obsequious praise.

Then on April 24, Bannon escalated his rhetoric, arguing that if failed Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake wasn’t available to be Trump’s future running mate, that Kennedy would make a great choice.

“Somebody asked about Robert F. Kennedy, and the great speech at Hillsdale, and his opening speech, and what did I think about his prospects,” Bannon said, describing a recent public appearance he’d made. “I said, ‘Look, I’m a Kari Lake person, but if Kari Lake becomes governor, as she should, with this court case, or if not, if she runs for the Senate — if she’s not available to be Trump’s VP, that Bobby Kennedy would be, I think, would be an excellent choice for President Trump to consider.’ It was a standing ovation.”

He reiterated the point the following day on Charlie Kirk’s podcast. 

“I see a very compelling reason — although I know Bobby Kennedy is terrible on guns, he ain’t great on Ukraine — but he talks about going after the administrative deep state in a very significant way, led by the pharmaceutical industry,” Bannon said. “If we put together a unity ticket of Trump and Kennedy, it would be insurmountable.”

There’s more, a lot more. Useful idiots are always a little bit depressing but this one is especially sad. The man clearly has big problems and these people are having a lot of fun exploiting them.

One Surreal Weekend

Well, that was quite a weekend wasn’t it? For a while there it looked as if Russian president Vladimir Putin might be overthrown by a monstrous mercenary warlord named Yevgeny Prigozhin. If that wasn’t strange enough, after taking over a couple of cities en route to Moscow, the plan was abruptly aborted and the warlord was quietly sent packing to Belarus while his mercenary troops were cordially invited to join the Russian army. Nobody knows why. Now it just remains to be seen if the Putin regime has been permanently damaged or whether it was just another surreal moment in the increasingly surreal era.

Meanwhile, back in the equally surreal USA, the Republican presidential candidates all attended the annual conservative evangelical gathering, The Faith and Freedom Coalition Conference. By all accounts the crowd was very excited to see all the candidates make their pitch, but the keynote speech by former president Donald Trump was the star event by a mile.

Former Vice President Mike Pence came out in favor of a national abortion ban at 15 weeks, which Senator Lindsey Graham explained would be really great because they could start “saving babies in California.” Some of the faithful were reportedly disappointed because they want a full ban with no exceptions but most are willing to go along with this idea as a first step.

If you ever wondered about the sincerity of these folks, this move says it all. For years they said they simply wanted to devolve the abortion issue to the states. They insisted that all the alarm about banning abortion across the nation was overblown. I think we know better now, don’t we? They should re-name their group the Bad Faith Coalition.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis only vaguely alluded to his main rival Donald Trump during his speech, reserving most of his ire for the woke and the woke and, of course, the woke. He did mention in passing that the wall never got built and that “some” of his opponents have criticized him for going after Disney — for being woke. I didn’t get the impression that the crowd saw him as any different than the other wannabes and he even signed a six week abortion ban. That is a testament to just how little they think of him even if many of them share his agenda:

The biggest moment of the conference came from former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie who had the temerity to criticize Donald Trump. He told the startled crowd:

“Beware, everybody, of a leader who never makes mistakes. Beware of a leader who has no faults. Beware of a leader who says that if something goes wrong, it’s everybody else’s fault, and he goes and he blames those people for anything that goes wrong. But when things go right, everything is to his credit. I’m running because he’s let us down. He has let us down because he’s unwilling … to take responsibility for any of the mistakes that were made and any of the faults that he has and any of the things that he’s done. And that is not leadership, everybody. That is a failure of leadership.”

That was when the booing got very loud. If there’s one thing they won’t stand for it’s hearing the truth. Christie responded by saying,

You can boo all you want. But here’s the thing: Our faith teaches us that people have to take responsibility for what they do. People have to stand up and take accountability for what they do. And I, I cannot stand by.”

They were unmoved. Christie explained to the media afterwards that he expected to get booed but that he thinks it’s important for people to hear what he said. The problem is that as important as one might think it is for Republicans with conservative credentials to stand before a group like that and tell them what they don’t want to hear, their beliefs don’t stem from never hearing it. They hear it. They just don’t believe it.

They believe that Donald Trump is the victim of cascading witch hunts because he was so successful as president and won so hugely that the Democrats and the RINOs had to steal the election from him and indict him for crimes he didn’t commit. They don’t believe he made any mistakes for which he needs to acknowledge or apologize, so slamming his character is meaningless to these people.

Trump spent a lot of time confessing to the crime for which he’s been indicted under the espionage act, by insisting that he had every right to commit it because he used to be the president. That’s his story and he’s sticking to it. And he once again proclaimed “I am being indicted for you” which, as expected, went over very well with the evangelicals. They like a messianic message.

But he also talked a little bit about politics too.

He took credit for ending Roe v Wade by thoroughly politicizing the Supreme Court and bragged that “no president has ever fought for Christians as hard as I have — I got it done, and nobody thought it was even a possibility.” He got a standing ovation for that. But he also pointedly did not endorse the 15 week national ban, instead saying that the federal government has a “vital role” in protecting unborn life and praising states for the great progress they are making in banning abortion. He’s smart enough to see how lethal the issue is for Republicans but he’s stuck just like the rest of them. There is no finessing this issue.

But he reserved much of his speech to push his strong wartime message:

“As we gather today, our beloved nation is teetering on the edge of tyranny. Our enemies are waging war on faith and freedom, on science and religion, on history and tradition, on law and democracy, on God almighty himself.”

In case you were wondering, the enemies he was talking about are Americans. But he also promised to keep out all the foreigners who are helping to destroy the nation. Back in 2016 it was Muslims and Mexicans. He’s casting a wider net this time:

Trump went to Michigan the next night and took it a step further. He pledged to “drive out” those that are already here:

DeSantis only promises to “destroy leftism.” Trump’s making it personal.

All of this was happening on a split screen, with a possible Russian coup attempt by a former chef turned mercenary general on one side threatening to topple the Russian government and a reality TV star and defeated president who happens to be under both state and federal indictment vowing to purge all the alleged Marxists, Communists and fascists in America on the other. Surreal doesn’t begin to describe it.

Salon

Hitler resurfaces at Faith & Freedom Coalition conference

The right’s dictator references are nothing new

After the Hamilton County, Indiana, chapter of the “extremist” Moms for Liberty placed a Hitler quote on the front page of its June newsletter, they received unwanted attention and blowback.

The Hill:

The quote, believed to be from a 1935 speech by Hitler, reads, “He alone, who owns the youth, gains the future.”

The Nazi Party trained young people through school and summer camps to indoctrinate them into Nazi ideology.

Paige Miller, chairwoman of the chapter, apologized in an updated version of the newsletter after initially giving an explanation that the quote “should put parents on alert.”

“We condemn Adolf Hitler’s actions and his dark place in human history,” Miller said. “We should not have quoted him in our newsletter and express our deepest apology.”

Maybe not so deep. Maybe not so sincere. I asked last week why the MAGA right keeps Hitler quotes so handy. “Moms” are not alone.

Hitler resurfaced again over the weekend at the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s “Road to Majority Policy Conference” at the Washington Hilton. Presumably, the context was the triple threat of critical race theory, “woke,” and “grooming” in schools.

“Basically, this is an evangelistic movement on the left…. It’s indoctrination. They are proselytizing to the next generation,” alleges Liberty University’s Ryan Helfenbein in a Right Side Broadcasting Network (RSBN) interview.

“What we’re discovering as parents and conservatives is — wait a second — education really is evangelism. So, if you don’t control education, you cannot control the future. And Stalin knew that, Mao knew that, Hitler knew that. We have to get that back for conservative values.”

Nobody indoctrinates our kids but us MAGA authoritarians, dammit!

This is not new

U.S. Rep. Mary Miller, Republican of Illinois, told a “Save The Republic” rally at the Capitol the day before the Jan. 6 insurrection, “This is the battle. Hitler was right on one thing. He said, ‘Whoever has the youth has the future.'” She later apologized.

Prominent MAGA Republicans seem to keep Hitler quotes as close at hand as Trump’s nightstand. Trump reportedly thinks “Hitler did a lot of good things.”

Twitter user Bruce Wilson reacts, “In 2007, I started a research folder of instances of top evangelical leaders saying this sort of thing, the need to indoctrinate children a la Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Mao, etc. This is *not* new.”

Look! Over there! Shiny!

The firehose of falsehood still spews

Missed some things while on the road over the weekend. Something about an aborted revolt in Russia, was it?

Jay Rosen’s comment on Anne Applebaum’s essay at The Atlantic made me look. Russian citizens along the Wagner Group parade route to Moscow came out to gawk, shake hands, and take selfies with Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenaries. “Nobody seemed to mind, particularly, that a brutal new warlord had arrived to replace the existing regime,” Applebaum writes:

The response is hard to understand without reckoning with the power of apathy, a much undervalued political tool. Democratic politicians spend a lot of time thinking about how to engage people and persuade them to vote. But a certain kind of autocrat, of whom Putin is the outstanding example, seeks to convince people of the opposite: not to participate, not to care, and not to follow politics at all. The propaganda used in Putin’s Russia has been designed in part for this purpose. The constant provision of absurd, conflicting explanations and ridiculous lies—the famous “firehose of falsehoods”— encourages many people to believe that there is no truth at all. The result is widespread cynicism. If you don’t know what’s true, after all, then there isn’t anything you can do about it. Protest is pointless. Engagement is useless.

“Resistance is useless!” as a young Vogon spaceship guard bored with the mindless tedium might shout. But hey, the machismo, that uniform, and the low-slung stun-ray holster! Or if you are Steve Bannon, two shirts.

NYU’s Rosen comments that Applebaum’s description may be of Putin’s Russia, “but it’s happening here as the GOP goes culture war crazy. Flooding the zone with shit. Nonstop attacks on the news media, teachers, experts. Half meant conspiracy theories. The effect is to make paying attention pointless.”

People say the GOP is Donald Trump’s Party, but it’s also Steve Bannon’s. The federal grand jury investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection subpoenaed Bannon in May, roughly. He is still running his “War Room” podcast:

Bannon, who now hosts a podcast, was previously charged with contempt of Congress for refusing to cooperate after he received congressional subpoenas from the House Jan. 6 committee, and he was convicted of two charges in July after a jury trial. In October, U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols sentenced Bannon to four months in federal prison but suspended the sentence while Bannon pursued appeals.

Sean Illing and Dave Roberts of Vox discussed Bannon’s approach to propaganda in 2020:

We’re in an age of manufactured nihilism.

The issue for many people isn’t exactly a denial of truth as such. It’s more a growing weariness over the process of finding the truth at all. And that weariness leads more and more people to abandon the idea that the truth is knowable.

I call this “manufactured” because it’s the consequence of a deliberate strategy. It was distilled almost perfectly by Steve Bannon, the former head of Breitbart News and chief strategist for Donald Trump. “The Democrats don’t matter,” Bannon reportedly said in 2018. “The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with shit.”

A firehose of falsehood, in other words. Except here it seems the Trumpist right’s goal is not apathy for its believers but a constant state of agitation. For the general public, the kind who might pose for selfies with mercenaries, the goal is to entertain, confuse, and overwhelm. Eventually, to anesthetize.

“A political party tries to court your vote,” tweets Anat Shenker-Osorio. “An authoritarian faction tries to keep you from voting.” Either by actively erecting bureaucratic hurdles or by breeding apathy and convincing people there is no point to trying. Don’t let it happen to anyone you care about.

Wisdom, experience and humor

Via WSJ:

Jeffrey Katzenberg has some Hollywood role models in mind as he urges the nation’s first octogenarian president to embrace his age.

The movie mogul has joined with other advisers in counseling President Biden to “own” his age and turn it into an asset, according to people familiar with the conversations. If Harrison Ford, 80 years old, can star in a new Indiana Jones movie and the Rolling Stones’ Mick Jagger, who turns 80 next month, can strut around a stadium stage, Katzenberg says, then Biden should lean into his longevity as a sign of wisdom and experience while offering a sense of humor about it.

It’s the only way. It can’t be ignored. So lean into it.

I’d say this guy is good role model too:

Yet another stupid attempt to whitewash history

How very Soviet of them

I’m so tired:

HOUSE SPEAKER KEVIN McCarthy (R-Calif.) is backing two resolutions introduced by Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) looking to expunge Donald Trump’s two impeachments by the House of Representatives.  

Speaking to reporters while exiting the Capitol on Friday, McCarthy said that he felt it was “appropriate” to expunge the impeachments “because it never should have gone through.” 

Trump was impeached twice over the course of his presidency. First in 2019 over allegations that he tried to extort Ukrainian government officials into launching a public investigation into Joe Biden in order to cripple his run for president in 2020. Trump was impeached again in 2021 for “incitement of insurrection” in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. He was acquitted in the Senate in both instances. 

McCarthy added to reporters on Friday that he felt the proceedings against Trump were invalid because the first “was not based on true facts” and the second “on the basis of no due process.”

When will reality bite?

Things are better than we think.

Ed Kilgore takes on the question of why Biden isn’t getting any credit for our improving circumstances. (It’s because people don’t feel it yet…)

These days it often seems like we’re caught in a deluge of bad and worrying news on everything from artificial intelligence and UFOs to homelessness and smoke in the air. But you could argue that life has been getting better in the USA overall, as Washington Monthly’s Bill Scher did recently in examining some of the issues people, and especially Republicans, blame on President Joe Biden. He offers as an example this indictment of Hellhole America from Ron DeSantis in his candidacy announcement last month:

Our southern border [has] collapsed. Drugs are pouring into the country. Our cities are being hollowed out by spiking crime. The federal government’s making it harder for the average family to make ends meet and to attain and maintain a middle-class lifestyle … Stop pricing hardworking Americans out of a good standard of living through inflationary borrow, print, and spending policies.

Actually, notes Scher, the “inflation rate for May is down to 4 percent, less than half of the June 2022 peak.” Illegal border crossings “have dropped by 70 percent in the last few weeks, according to the Department of Homeland Security, after Biden implemented a new border-management policy.” And aside from the fact that rising crime rates during the last few years left crime much, much lower than it was in the late 20th century, any “crime wave” claims are now clearly questionable:

Murder is down about 12 percent year-to-date in more than 90 cities that have released data for 2023, compared with data as of the same date in 2022,” according to crime data analyst Jeff Asher, writing in The Atlantic, a trend that could lead to “one of the largest annual percent changes in murder ever recorded.” That follows a 4 percent drop in homicides in 2022 from the prior year, according to the Council on Criminal Justice analysis of data from 35 cities. …

Another set of promising data comes from the Violent Crime Survey by the Major Cities Chiefs Association, which looked at data from 70 cities. During the first quarter of 2023, homicides, rapes, and robberies dropped about 8 percent from the first quarter of 2022.  

So all the dystopian talk from Republican politicians is at best anachronistic, and at worst deliberate disinformation based on reflexive partisanship, right? Well, sort of. There are some other things going on.

When you are a politician, perceptions about how things are going in the nation are just as important as the facts. Polling on Biden’s job-approval ratings on various issues help illuminate the nature of the public’s discontent.

According to the RealClearPolitics polling averages, 41 percent of Americans approval of Biden’s overall job performance, while 54.5 percent disapprove. His 13.5 percent net disapproval is at its highest level since August 2022. But the ratio is worse in surveys that look at Biden’s performance on inflation, immigration, and crime specifically (though the number of polls doing this detailed approval polling is limited). The averages show Biden at 31.3 percent approval to 64.3 percent disapproval on inflation, 32.5 percent approval to 62.3 percent disapproval on immigration, and a relatively benign 38 percent approval to 56 percent disapproval on crime. (By comparison, his average ratios are 40.8 percent approval to 53.8 percent disapproval on foreign policy, almost identical to his overall approval ratings, and a nearly above-water 45.3 percent approval to 49.7 percent disapproval on his handling of the Russia-Ukraine war.)

Do these numbers just reflect partisanship? Not really, though Republican antipathy holds all of Biden’s approval ratings down. When you look at a poll that breaks down these approval levels by partisan ID, as a June 3-6 Economist/YouGov survey did, you see that the Republican numbers are fairly flat. Ten percent of Republicans approve of Biden’s overall job performance, the same percentage that approves of what he’s doing on inflation. Eleven percent of Republicans are happy with Biden on immigration, and 15 percent on crime. There’s more variation among independents; 30 percent approve of Biden’s job approval overall, but the approval number drops to 24 percent on crime, 23 percent on inflation, and 22 percent on immigration. And the most movement is among Democrats — there, Biden approval ratings drop from 82 percent overall to 63 percent on immigration and inflation and 66 percent on crime.

It’s unlikely that Democrats and independents who are less than thrilled with Biden’s record on inflation, immigration, and crime have a negative view because they spend too much time listening to Republican talking points from politicians or Fox News. Clearly Team Biden needs to do a better job of getting the recent good news out to members of his own party and persuadable independents. But it’s also true that perceptions of where the country is on various issues can take time to change.

Most Americans do not follow monthly inflation, crime, or border-crossing statistics. They experience inflation through more expensive bills, less abundant grocery purchases, and delayed big-ticket investments; crime through if-it-bleeds-it-leads local news broadcasts and major events like mass shootings; immigration through vivid images of people in migrant camps or the frequency with which they hear foreign languages spoken in their own communities. The positive statistics Bill Scher recites need to be reflected over time in real-life experiences — and they need to persist until the moment voters decide how to vote. But pushing back when Biden haters pretend the country is going straight to hell is probably a good idea for Democrats. A swing voter might hear them.

I have said many times that the nation is suffering from mass PTSD from trump and the pandemic. It’s been stressful to say the least and he isn’t going away which means people are triggered every single day. All these other experiences could be interpreted in different ways but as long as the mood is bad, it’s going to be tough sledding for any leader.

It’s going to be a very tough race based on negative partisanship as the last two have been. It’s not pretty but it’s all we’ve got until we can emotionally move past this strange, discombobulating Trump era.