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Trumponomics

Everyone knew that President Trump as going to pull the trigger on his big tariff policy on Wednesday but he actually dropped a nuclear bomb. He put a 10% tariff on every nearly country in the world and added even more on a number of them based upon a goofy formula that reflected false assumptions at best or Trump’s personal whims at worst. It sent shock waves across the globe, with the markets taking a massive tumble and economic forecasters scrambling to revise upwards their predictions for a recession. Let’s just say it was not well received.

Everyone knew something was coming but no one expected his plan to be so random and incoherent. The fact that it included tariffs on uninhabited islands and territories that are essentially U.S. military bases just proved that it was sloppily put together, likely by AI, and hadn’t been vetted by anyone who knew what they were talking about. It is a radical, re-ordering of the global trading system by a president who is clueless about how any of this works.

The big question hovering over all these tariffs, starting with Mexico and Canada and now the rest of the world, is what does Donald Trump really want? It’s not been entirely clear. He claims that Canada must stop the flow of fentanyl into our country in order to get their tariffs lifted but there is no flow of fentanyl. He wants Mexico to stop immigrants from coming over the border and likewise stop fentanyl from coming into the country and they’ve done everything asked of them to make that happen. It didn’t matter.

Canada has come to believe that Trump is actually serious about wanting to annex their country and is intent upon collapsing their economy in order to make that happen. Mexico almost certainly understands that Trump is readying a military incursion of some kind ostensibly to “take out” the drug cartels. Neither of those things have anything to do with trade. In fact, Trump himself negotiated the USMCA trade agreement just 7 years ago between the three countries calling it “the largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved, there’s never been anything like it.” This is something else entirely.

But what about all these other countries? What does he want from them? He doesn’t believe in the idea that has organized global trading for almost a century now, which Amanda Taub of the NY Times defined as, “the ‘positive-sum’ game:  a collection of overlapping systems that benefit all who participate in them, even if the costs and benefits of participation aren’t distributed equally.” Or as we might call it, “win-win.” That is anathema to Donald Trump. To him all of life is zero-sum.

So this isn’t really about “trade” at least as it’s commonly defined, as we can see with his behavior toward Mexico and Canada. This isn’t really a trade war. It’s a shake down. Trump simply sees tariffs as a weapon to be used to force the rest of the world to America’s will.

Trump has been on this crusade since the 1980s when he saw Japanese businessmen buying up U.S. properties and getting rich selling their cars to Americans eager to buy them. According to Barbara Res, a former Executive Vice President of the Trump Organization, “he had a tremendous resentment for Japan” and was jealous that they were considered business geniuses. He felt they were “taking advantage” of the United States by not paying for their defense and should be “taxed” accordingly.

He took out an ad in the New York Times back in 1987, expressing all of this in no uncertain terms and has not changed his rhetoric at all except to add more countries to his list of grievances:


He came to believe that tariffs were the tool you could use to force these nations to pay for their security.

He was uninterested, or perhaps unable to understand, the reason why America had been the “free world’s” security guarantor during the cold war and almost certainly failed to grasp the complexities of the nuclear age. During the 2016 election he had no idea what the nuclear triad was in one of the presidential debates and once said “Let it be an arms race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all” after he was elected. (In the years since he has pretended to fret about nuclear arms even as he was telling his military leaders he wanted to build back the nuclear arsenal to what it was at the height of the cold war.) His erratic and provocative behavior since he took office the second time has now raised the spectre of a new nuclear arms race.

His belief that the allies should be paying America for their defense has now evolved into a full-fledged protection racket in which he is using these tariffs to say “nice little country you have here, be a shame if anything happened to it.” Last night, on Air Force One, as he was jetting off to attend a golf tournament at his club in Florida (sponsored by his partners and for which he receives a cut of the profits) he told the press corps:

Every country is calling us. That’s the beauty of what we do. We put ourselves in the driver’s seat. If we would have asked these countries to do us a favor, they would have said no. Now they will do anything for us. The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have.”

Note that he used the words “do us a favor” the same words he used to shake down Volodymyr Zelensky in the “perfect phone call” that got him impeached the first time. He’s not negotiating, he’s extorting.

We don’t know what he specifically wants from all these countries. I would assume that some of them will gain his favor with elaborate obsequiousness and flamboyant flattery. Others may have to offer up something a bit more material, perhaps a nice gift of some sort. And he will punish others, particularly those he sees as having been disloyal. In other words he’s going to treat the world as if it’s the Republican Party, under his thumb and answering to his whim.

It’s possible that he will be able to coerce some companies to move their manufacturing to the U.S. (or at least make an announcement to that effect which is what he really wants.) But it’s unlikely that he’ll ever take tariffs off the table regardless of whatever “deal” is made. Why would he? If they get him what he wants he’ll use them over and over again.

He has gotten away with everything in his life and his belief in his own power is now limitless. It sounds crazy to say it but it’s true — Donald Trump is trying to dominate the world. As I have said many times, “America First” never meant isolationism to Donald Trump. It meant “America Above All.” And yes it does sound better in the original German.

Salon

The End Is Here

Trump didn’t end it himself

So much of the tariff commentary today examines how Donald Trump’s demented attempt to get the world to kiss his feet will impact the economy and people’s pocketbooks. It will. But the bigger picture is that Trump will die but he’s taking the United States with him.

The Bulwark’s gunwales are awash in doomsaying this morning, starting with this quote from Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney:

The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday. The system of global trade anchored on the United States, that Canada has relied on since the end of the Second World War—a system that, while not perfect, has helped to deliver prosperity for our country for decades—is over.

JV Last laments, “The American age is over. And it ended because the American people were no longer worthy of it.”

“[W]e now find ourselves bowing before a power-drunk man-child,” writes Mona Charon. (Who’s we, Mona?)

Bill Kristol quotes Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.” Ours is now a time “of terrible mistakes, monstrous deeds, and disastrous consequences.”

Or it could be a mass uprising, starting with tomorrow.

Several monsters run major countries, including ours. As markets collapse and the fortunes of the richest turn sour, it may not be an assassin’s bullet that removes our monster from power, but the massed financial clout of oligarchs who saw him as a useful idiot so long as he served to increase their wealth. And now he’s red ink.

But that’s all finance. The world will not trust us now, even after Trump is gone. Try to find the humor in an idiot such as this destroying the American-led world order in a mere 71 days. He had help. Lots oif it. Charlton Heston said it best.

* * * * *

Have you fought autocracy today?

National Day of Action, Saturday, April 5
The Resistance Lab
Choose Democracy
Indivisible: A Guide to Democracy on the Brink
You Have Power
Chop Wood, Carry Water
Thirty lonely but beautiful actions
Attending a Protest Surveillance Self-Defense

Hands Off!

We’re not going to take it

Americans in the streets is the only way to apply enough pressure to Donald Trump eunuchs in Congress to take action to rein in He-Who-Would-Be-King. If those who’ve never joined a street protest before needed a good reason to join their neighbors in the streets tomorrow, Donald Trump gave them one this week. His garbled tariffs plan sent stocks off the cliff. Even Americans with little of their life’s savings in the markets can read that chart. And headlines. Everything they are already struggling to afford at Walmart is going to get even harder to afford just so Trump can scratch his McKinley itch.

NBC News: “White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN on Thursday morning that Wall Street should ‘trust President Trump.’ ” Good luck with that.

If Trump thought the world was out to get him before, he ain’t seen nothin’ yet. He punched the world in the nose on Tuesday Wednesday (it’s been a week) and the world is punching back:

In France, President Emmanuel Macron called for companies to pause investments in the United States. China pledged retaliation against Trump’s “typical bullying.” Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned that the tariffs would have “significant repercussions” on the global economy.

Stock markets in Asia and Europe fell Thursday after Trump levied sweeping global tariffs on Wednesday, although some recovered losses during the trading day.

Analysts warned that the measures risk strengthening China’s hand.

You get the idea. So, about tomorrow.

Indivisible reported Thursday night that 514,000 had signed up to attend 1,000 events in all 50 states tomorrow. Even with a 50% flake rate, that’s still a quarter million people in the streets. Still, Indivisible saw an over 25% increase in signups just since Thursday morning. Fewer pissed-off Americans will flake tomorrow.

Axios:

State of play: Protesters are rallying against several Trump administration policies, including its handling of Social Security benefits, layoffs across the federal workforce, attacks on consumer protections and anti-immigrant policies and attacks on transgender people.

  • The protests are also against Elon Musk’s involvement in the federal government via DOGE — after he’s already faced a wave of demonstrations at Tesla dealerships worldwide via the #TeslaTakedown movement.
  • The Hands Off! demonstrations will occur at state capitals, federal buildings, congressional offices and city centers.
  • Dozens of advocacy organizations are partnering to support Saturday’s action, including the Center for LGBTQ Economic Advancement & Research, Declaration for American Democracy, the Human Rights Campaign, Indivisible and Planned Parenthood.

The ACLU will hold an online training tonight at 8 p.m. ET for those who need to know their protest rights. Indivisible has more help here.

But I have a request.

I’ve been frustrated for years that the left seems not to have grown much since the 60s when it comes to street actions. I am so over squads of Grim Reapers and coffin bearers and die-ins and “clowns for peace.” Like any of that speaks to middle America.

But one protest staple that sets my teeth on edge is a chant template that dates from the 1950s. It’s tired. It’s boring. I immediately roll my eyes and tune it out.

God, can’t we do better? Something fresher and more ear-catching?

Timothy Snyder endorsed this one: We don’t want your Nazi cars / take a one-way trip to Mars

I’m sitting here noodling others:

  • Save our US constitution / send Trump to an institution
  • Save our seniors, save our parks / No monarchs or oligarchs
  • Save free people everywhere / Stop bullies and billionaires
  • Trump and Putin, Noem and Bondi / No Americanisch Stasi (okay, that’s somewhat obscure)
  • Tesla’s toxic, Trump is dumb / go to hell you Nazi scum
  • Don’t be silent, don’t be cowed / Say you’re pissed and say it LOUD!
  • Don’t let hate corrupt your soul / Nazi, crawl back in your hole!

Just please, no hey hey ho ho.

* * * * *

Have you fought autocracy today?

National Day of Action, Saturday, April 5
The Resistance Lab
Choose Democracy
Indivisible: A Guide to Democracy on the Brink
You Have Power
Chop Wood, Carry Water
Thirty lonely but beautiful actions
Attending a Protest Surveillance Self-Defense

Bravo Amber Ruffin

Late Night writer Amber Ruffin shares what she’s learned about the importance of both sides after her White House Correspondents’ Dinner gig was cancelled.

Very sharp, very classy, very potent.

If You Need To Explain Why It’s Stupid

This is the easiest explanation

I posted this yesterday as part of a longer post but I think it’s important to highlight it here. From Paul Krugman:

I don’t know how many people realize that the administration’s case for tariffs is completely incoherent, that it has not one but two major internal contradictions.

Here’s the story: Trumpers are claiming that tariffs

1. Won’t increase prices, because foreign producers will absorb the cost

2. Will cause a large shift in U.S. demand away from imports to domestic production

3. Will raise huge amounts of revenue

If you think about it for a minute, you realize that

(1) is inconsistent with (2): If prices of imports don’t rise, why would consumers switch to domestically produced goods? 

At the same time, (2) is inconsistent with (3): If imports drop a lot, tariffs won’t raise a lot of money, because there won’t be much to tax.

Mostly, the argument won’t have to be made because prices are going to spike and people will see that. But the Trumpers will blame Biden and quite a few will believe it but I don’t think most people are going to buy that. Trump owns this.

I would love to see the media corner guys like Lutnick and Bessent on television with this. JD Vance too. It could even happen on Fox with one or two of their slightly less insane people on Fox Business. (I won’t hold my breath.) But the henchmen really should be forced to answer for it. It’s crazy and it’s dumb. And all but the most deluded know it.

Why Does He Love Them So Much?

Brian Beutler’s theory on why Trump loves tariffs so much is as good as anything I’ve heard. It certainly fits with my own observations of what makes Trump tick:

They’re extremely stupid. They’re so dumb they have people genuinely wondering if Trump has some devious ulterior motive for being so destructive. Is he trying to wreck the economy so he and his billionaire buddies can buy up its valuables in a fire sale? Did Vladimir Putin tell him this would be a good idea? I guess I wouldn’t rule anything out, but I suspect the answer is much dumber. Trump likes to set up situations where he can snap his fingers and things change, it makes him feel powerful. It makes it so people who hold him in contempt nevertheless have to kiss his ring. He likes anything that gives him kind of leverage. He wants to be an autocrat, and this advances that goal, at least insofar as it doesn’t crater the economy and ignite a major popular and elite backlash.

But he’s also been obsessed with tariffs since way before he had real designs on the presidency. At the risk of peering into a deranged mind, my “too dumb to be true, but probably is” hypothesis is that he’s obsessed with the Gilded Age (though he may not even know the term, or that it’s derogatory) because that’s when they built all these ornate mansions and estates. When he says ahistorical nonsense, like that the U.S. was never richer than under William McKinley, I think he’s confused about what “national prosperity” means. The robber barons had all the money and built lavish properties, ergo the country was “rich.”

He lives in Mar-a-Lago, which was built by Marjorie Merriweather Post in the 1920s. And while she, as heiress to the Post Cereal fortune, was not a “robber baron” in the traditional sense of the word, that’s the vibe he likes. It’s what you’d expect in a “rich country.” He’s a bit like a townie who starts to talk, dress, and act like a mobster after watching The Godfather, because the Corleones seemed so strong, and had so much money. Not an uncommon interpretation of the movie, particularly among unthinking men! But the point is that it misses the point. And Trump isn’t playing dress-up. He’s causing immense damage to the world.

I do think this is part of it. He loves the bling. Look what he’s doing to the White House.

Bleccch…

Beutler points out the one “silver lining” if you want to call it that:

Politically, none of this would be possible without Republican obeisance. This is not how the law giving presidents immense discretion over tariffs was intended to function, and they could change it tomorrow, with veto-proof majorities. But they won’t, at least not until the pain becomes chronic and severe. This is one of the most straightforward cases I can recall where members of Congress will truly own and foot the bill for their president’s recklessness—they have no good answer for the public other than “we have to trust the president,” when they know full well he’s not to be trusted. If there’s a silver lining here, it’ll be watching bad, craven people squirm.

They are literally saying “trust Trump, he’s a genius.” They’re placing a very big bet that his luck will hold and this won’t be as bad as it seems. In fairness, he has managed to slither out of every jam in his life so they’re just letting it ride. But this one is the biggest crazy risk he’s ever taken and they are idiots for going along with it.

I’m Tired Of All The Winning

“Listen it’s a roller coaster. You only get hurt if you jump off amid the ride. If you have to pull back from your vacation this year because times are a little tighter, fine. Save, plan and you can’t just be like ‘the sky is falling’ looking at the headlines every day to decide how I’m going to live life.”

He’s doing a great job:

A surge in federal government job cuts contributed to a near record-setting pace for announced layoffs in March, exceeded only by when the country shut down in 2020 for the Covid pandemic, according to a report Thursday from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Furloughs in the federal government totaled 216,215 for the month, part of a total 275,240 reductions overall in the labor force. Some 280,253 layoffs across 27 agencies in the past two months have been linked to the Elon Musk-led so-called Department of Government Efficiency and its efforts to pare down the federal workforce.

The monthly total was surpassed only by April and May of 2020 in the early days of the pandemic when employers announced combined reductions of more than 1 million, according to Challenger records going back to 1989. It also was the highest March on record.

The year-to-date tally for federal government announced layoffs represents a 672% increase from the same period in 2024, according to Challenger.

Come ON…..

This can’t be happening. Laura Loomer?????

Several members of President Trump’s embattled National Security Council have been fired, a U.S. official and a second source familiar told Axios on Thursday.

The firings come a day after conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer visited the Oval Office and pressed Trump to fire specific NSC staffers. Axios has not confirmed whether the firings were directly linked to that incident, but the source familiar said they were “being labeled as an anti-neocon move.”

The U.S. official said Loomer was furious that “neocons” had “slipped through” the vetting process for administration jobs, referring to hawkish foreign policy views commonly associated with the Bush administration.

  • “She went to the White House yesterday and presented them with her research and evidence,” the official said. The NYT first reported on Loomer’s visit. The official suspected that the firings were linked to Loomer’s visit but was not certain.
  • The U.S. official named two senior NSC members who had been fired, and said it was shaping up to be a “bloodbath.” Axios is seeking additional confirmation before naming those people.
  • The source familiar said several people were fired, including senior directors. An NSC spokesperson declined to comment.

He’s having a total meltdown.

Will anyone resign? Will any GOP Senator or Rep. even say anything?

American Berserk

YouGov Poll 3/28-4/1:

I think the scariest result here is that 52% of the American people want to designate large-scale fentanyl trafficking as a weapon of mass destruction. WTF???

Other than that, most people seem to be reasonably sane. Too bad about the government that 49% of them voted for:

They really hate the Trump agenda. I wonder if they know that?