Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans got a little bit of good news over the weekend with some highly respected polls coming in showing that Kamala Harris is continuing to grow a lead over Donald Trump. According to the NBC poll, Harris leads by 5 points nationally and has received a mind-boggling 16 point bump in favorability since July. NBC reports that it’s “the largest increase for any politician in NBC News polling since then-President George W. Bush’s standing surged after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.” It appears that the more people see of her, the more they like her.

The CBS News Poll found Harris up 52-48 percent nationally and 51-49 percent in the battlegrounds. Importantly, the poll found that views of the economy have improved a bit and her numbers on that issue have improved with them. Those who are voting on personal qualities favor Harris 66-33% and those who are voting on “policy” are 50% for her and 50% for Trump.

G Elliot Morris of 538, posted this on Sunday night:

Harris up 3 nationally per our 538 average; 2.7 in Michigan, 1.9 in Wisconsin and 1.5 in Pennsylvania. Plus GA, AZ, NC and NV all within a point. Harris modestly leads this race but a normal amount of polling bias could see Trump win (or Harris 350 EVs)https://t.co/cdR35ysBkE

— G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) September 23, 2024

That does throw some cold water on any euphoria Harris supporters might be feeling. The race remains very close and it’s hard to understand how that can be after everything that’s happened over the past eight years of Trump dominating our politics. In fact, it’s downright disorienting.

The good news is that he has, for the first time, said that he won’t run again. Of course, he’s not exactly a man of his word so I wouldn’t take that to the bank. If he loses this time and disputes the results and continues to run a shadow government from Mar-a-lago I’d say the chances are pretty good that even at the age of 82 he’ll be primed for another comeback, especially if the GOP is still drowning is weirdo extremism.

Despite the Trump campaign insisting that their own polls are showing that he’s far ahead in the battlegrounds, Trump’s behavior indicates that he knows he’s not running away with it. And he’s very disappointed about that since he had probably already told Melania she could make plans to follow up her hideous destruction of the White House rose garden with plans to dig up the rest of the grounds and turn them into a putting green and Christmas tree sculpture garden. He thought it was a foregone conclusion and he didn’t expect that he would have to actually do anything. And so far, he has not been able to rev himself up to campaign very much.

Axios reported on his low energy rally schedule compared to the past:

He was even doing more rallies in 2020 during the pandemic. And, as Harris pointed out in the debate (much to Trump’s chagrin) they just aren’t the raucous, fun events they used to be. She described how people are leaving early, “bored and exhausted” which is absolutely true. He held a rally this past weekend in North Carolina that once again had people streaming out while he was still speaking. The MAGA magic isn’t what it used to be. And Trump isn’t the candidate he used to be.

The Washington Post reported on the state of the Trump campaign as we head into the final stretch of the campaign and it’s looking pretty frayed around the edges. Not only is Harris outraising and outspending them, the Trump campaign is experiencing serious internal problems. What was considered to be the most disciplined, professional campaign Trump has ever run has devolved into yet another edition of the Trump show.

The Post runs down some of the events of just the past two weeks, pointing out that Trump’s “chaotic and widely criticized debate performance” didn’t happen in a vacuum. He had already brought back the troublesome Corey Lewandowski into the fold, who had immediately challenged the authority of the campaign leadership and Trump was travelling around the country with far right conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer. That’s not all:

Trump picked a fight with the international icon, posting last Sunday on social media, “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!” — the sort of impulsive, impetuous display that has become increasingly common in recent weeks. In a single 24-hour span at the end of last month, for example, he amplified a crude joke about Harris performing a sex act; falsely accused her of staging a coup against President Joe Biden; promoted tributes to the QAnon conspiracy theory; hawked digital trading cards; and became embroiled in a public feud with staff and officials at Arlington National Cemetery.

One Trump insider told the Post, “the through-line is his campaign is 96 percent him. It’s not even ‘Let Trump be Trump. It’s ‘Let Trump be unsupervised at all times.’ They just feel like, ‘We can’t control him, so let’s hope he wins anyways.’”

Imagine what he’ll be like when he’s back in the White House, knowing that he has immunity from virtually any criminal accountability and will not need to seek the approval of the voters ever again. I can’t imagine that Donald Trump will spend much time worrying about his “legacy.” He believes that he will be remembered as the greatest president in American history and probably the greatest leader in world history. And if others disagree he will spend the rest of his life saying it on a loop, sure that if he just says it enough people will agree it’s true.

According to the NY Times, which published a similar story on Sunday, Trump’s antics have the rest of the party worried. Not only has he been agitating for a government shutdown under the ignorant assumption that because he was blamed for one when he was president, Biden/Harris will be blamed this time, his incoherence on the stump is potentially bringing down the rest of the ballot. (Apparently, Speaker Johnson defied Trump and agreed to a deal to avert he shut down without the provision Trump demanded. No word from Trump yet, but his protege Laura Loomer had angry words for “Rino” Johnson.)

The Times reported:

Some Republicans worry that the collective impact could alienate more moderate Republicans, whose support could prove to be decisive in such a tight contest, as Mr. Trump perhaps reminds those voters why they denied him a second term.

As Harris said in the debate, he’s having a very difficult time processing that fact which should have disqualified him from the presidency and would have it the party had been willing to take responsibility and convict him in the second impeachment trial.

People often comment on social media about Democrats being nervous nellies about the election, never able to feel confident while the Republicans just march on regardless of how daunting the electoral challenge. Democrats know despite Harris’s slight lead and the fact that her campaign is operating smoothly while the Trump campaign is a chaotic mess Donald Trump could win this campaign.

And that’s the problem. Considering all we know and everything that’s happened, how in the world is it even possible that it’s this close? Even if Harris wins and Trump finally shuffles off into obscurity that’s the question that will haunt us as a country for many years to come.

Salon

Mark Robinson’s sinking campaign

N.C. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, Republican candidate for governor, had a pretty lousy weekend. He’s looking at a blue Monday too (CNN):

Several top operatives on Republican Mark Robinson’s campaign for North Carolina governor have stepped down, just days after a CNN report uncovered inflammatory comments the candidate made on a porn website.

Robinson’s campaign announced Sunday evening that general consultant and senior adviser Conrad Pogorzelski III, campaign manager Chris Rodriguez, finance director Heather Whillier and deputy campaign manager Jason Rizk have stepped down from the campaign. Pogorzelski confirmed the news when reached by CNN.

“The reports are true that I, along with others from the campaign have left of our own accord,” he told CNN in a statement.

Republicans expect Robinson to lose. Reports suggest he is persona non grata at Trump-Vance rallies in the state. Trump frets that Robinson’s drag on the slate will cost him North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes and the presidency (and in due course, his freedom).

WUNC reports that the only Robinson staff who remain are “two campaign spokesmen and a bodyguard.” Where to find anyone to man his rapidly sinking ship this late in the campaign?

Oh! There’s Jack Burkman volunteering!

Sources say that Mark Robinson’s campaign is receiving palliative care and has less than 24 hours to live. pic.twitter.com/WjgP9INIgw

— Maya May (@mayaonstage) September 23, 2024

“For those not familiar with Jack and his partner, Jacob Wohl, be sure to Google them,” tweeted one FKA Twitter user. “Jack and Jacob are the political version of the burglars in Home Alone.”

Burkman is on a two-year probation after conviction for a telecommunications fraud felony involving false robocalls in Ohio. This guy attended the Baghdad Bob School of Political Flackistry and has a long history of false claims. This is likely another.

I’m old enough to have watched The Beatles’ first appearance on “The Ed Sullivan Show.” Deadpan comic Jackie Vernon was a regular. He’d stand on stage with a slide clicker and blandly narrate his unseen “vacation slides” from the Everglades.

[CLICK!] Here’s the guide I got. His name was Guido. Very famous guide, in fact he was known as Guido the Guide.

[CLICK!] Here’s Guido the Guide leading me around a bed of quicksand.

[CLICK!] Here’s Guido the Guide from the waist up.

[CLICK!] That’s his hat right there.

[CLICK!] Here’s my next guide, Son of Guido the Guide.

[CLICK!]

[CLICK!]

[CLICK!] That’s his hat.

Change that to North Carolina’s Great Dismal Swamp and that’s Mark Robinson’s campaign about now.

Popular Information has a report on corporate sponsors backing Robinson’s campaign through the Republican Governors Association (RGA).

It’s good knowin’ she’s out there

Sam Elliot has had lots of memorable film roles, but perhaps none more memorable than the The Stranger in The Big Lebowski (1998). The Lincoln Project recruited the voice of that icon of manliness to pitch Kamala Harris to the dudes out there who need to hear it.

“I can’t believe we’re having this conversation again,” Elliot begins. “Are we really going back down that same fucking, broken road? Or are we moving forward? Towards hope? Towards freedom? Towards change?”

This is an incredible ad by The Lincoln Project narrated by Sam Elliott!

“It’s time to be a man and vote for a woman.”

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥pic.twitter.com/ig4aRU3tTA

— Art Candee 🍿🥤 (@ArtCandee) September 23, 2024

“It’s time to be a man and vote for a woman,” made me burst out laughing. That’s pretty damned unsubtle. Hope it has an impact with the target audience.

I guess he thinks those videos on Truth Social hawking his trading cards and commemorative coins make up for it?

Maybe he’ll pick up the pave in October but I doubt it. His heart hasn’t been in it all year. I don’t think he’s having any fun.

The campaign says he’s planning to do more rallies down the stretch but it’s highly unlikely he’ll do five a day as he sometimes did in 2016. You have to love this from Axios:

Breaking it down: People in Trump’s camp give three primary reasons he’s hitting the road less this time, Axios’ Sophia Cai reports:

He’s a known quantity. The campaign feels less need to define him or his candidacy for voters this time around.

Rallies are expensive. Trump’s campaign managers this cycle are keeping a closer hold on the purse strings.

He’s older, and more inclined to spend his time at Mar-a-Lago.

Gosh, I’m so old I remember when such an observation would have caused the entire beltway establishment to rise up as one questioning whether he has the stamina to be president for four years. In fact, it might have been seen as totally disqualifying.

I guess they figure that all that bonzer and Tresseme hair spray are elixers that will keep him going despite the demonstrable dementia on the stump and his low energy level.

This has to mean something. Politico reports on the money game:

Kamala Harris’ campaign spent nearly three times as much as Donald Trump’s did in August — but raised so much that she still grew her cash advantage.

The massive spending disparity came even as the Trump campaign continued to scale up its expenses, which more than doubled from the month prior, according to a POLITICO analysis of campaign finance filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission late Friday. But the continued divergence highlights the Harris campaign’s significant money and infrastructure advantage as the election approaches: Harris has far more campaign cash available than Trump, and she has greater means to deploy it.

Harris entered August with more money than Trump, and managed to raise more than she spent over the month. Trump’s campaign, by contrast, spent more than it raised despite far fewer expenses. Her campaign reported taking in $190 million; his, just shy of $45 million.

The vice president’s campaign outspent Trump $174 million to $61 million in August. But Harris’ preexisting cash advantage and superior fundraising mean that she ended the month with $235 million, $100 million more than Trump.

And then there’s this rather astonishing comparison:

The Harris campaign and the Democratic National Committee had a combined more than 1,200 staffers on payroll, compared to about 320 for the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee.

I guess they’re hoping that Charlie Kirk and Turning Point can get the incel boys out to knock on doors?

The RNC has slightly more money in the bank than the DNC ($79 to 50 million) but we don’t know how much they have from the joint fundraising committees and I would guess their at least fairly even. The DNC is spending more on canvassing and the RNC spend on direct mail (much more lucrative for the wingnut grifters…)

Trump is relying on Super PACs funded by his billionaire buddies and we don’t know yet how much they raised and spent. Maybe it’s a wash. But you have to wonder if they are all just doing their own thing without any common themes and if that’s effective.

The big difference is that the Democrats dwarfed the Republicans with small donor donations which is one fair way to gauge enthusiasm. By that measure, the Democrats are far more excited about the race than MAGA.

When I look at the Trump rallies these days it really does look like a lot of them are just going through the motions. It’s the same old thing and the group dynamic they used to love — the party that went along with it —- just doesn’t seem to have much spark.

They’ll all vote for him again. But I think it’s becoming less central to their lives. He’s rapidly becoming a nostalgia act and I don’t think they are willing to pay top dollar for the show anymore.

Not bloody likely:

Trump pushes his misogynist lies about moms in blue states murdering their babies pic.twitter.com/Ths0cEieAb

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 21, 2024

This paternalistic “big daddy” view is something he does with any constituency he believes doesn’t appreciate him enough. “Look what I did for you!” “”I gave you everything and you should be grateful!” “I’ll make you so happy you won’t want any of the things you think you want!”

He does it with Black people, Jews, women, Latinos — everyone who doesn’t worship him. It’s creepy.

Gee, that’s terrible. But he’s holding package of 24 eggs.

Also, check out the actual prices of a dozen eggs, right behind him:

Yes, special organic and free range eggs can cost $4.00 or more a dozen. But that was true back in 2019 when American was great too.

Is he an alien from another planet?

NBC:

A double-digit increase in popularity, rising Democratic enthusiasm and an early edge for representing “change” have vaulted Vice President Kamala Harris forward and reshuffled the 2024 presidential contest, according to a new national NBC News poll.

With just over six weeks until Election Day, the poll finds Harris with a 5-point lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters, 49% to 44%. While that result is within the margin of error, it’s a clear shift from July’s poll, when Trump was ahead by 2 points before President Joe Biden’s exit.

Kamala’s favorability has jumped 16 points since July, “the largest increase for any politician in NBC News polling since then-President George W. Bush’s standing surged after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.”

Harris also holds the advantage over Trump on being seen as competent and effective, as well as on having the mental and physical health to be president — a reversal from Trump’s leads on those qualities when he was matched up against Biden.

And in a contest between a sitting vice president and an ex-president, featuring an electorate that overwhelmingly thinks the U.S. is “on the wrong track,” Harris has the upper hand on which candidate better represents change and which candidate can get the country headed in the right direction.

That last is because we feel like we’ve been forced to deal with Orange Julius Caesar for at least a century.

A little tidbit:

In an expanded ballot with third-party candidates, Harris leads Trump by 6 points, 47% to 41% — with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2%, Jill Stein at 2% and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1%. (Respondents were only able to pick from the major third-party candidates who will actually appear on the ballot in their states.)

As for “issues” people still inexplicably think Trump will be better on inflation and toughness on the border:

Harris’ best results are on protecting immigrant rights (where she has a 28-point lead over Trump), abortion (+21 points), having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (+20 points), having the right temperament to be president (+16 points) and representing change (+9 points).

By comparison, Trump’s biggest leads are on securing the border (+21), the economy (+9) and dealing with the cost of living (+8).

However:

Those current Trump advantages, however, are all down from when Biden was still in the race. When NBC News put those questions to voters about Trump and Biden in January, Trump led the president by 35 points on the issue of securing the border and controlling immigration and by 22 points on dealing with the economy.

In April, voters gave Trump a 22-point edge over Biden on dealing with inflation and the cost of living, too.

This is huge:

In July, 32% of registered voters had a positive view of Harris, versus 50% who saw her in a negative light (-18 net rating) — almost identical to Biden’s rating.

But in this new poll, Harris is now at 48% positive, 45% negative (+3).

No major-party presidential candidate in the 35-year history of the NBC News poll has seen this kind of jump in popularity in an election.

All in all, a very positive result. I still can’t believe it’s this close but I’ll take it.

Born of a virgin

It’s still true:

The Reformation may have decentralized the faith and brought it closer to the people, but it also meant by the late 20th century that any American huckster with a flashy suit, an expensive coif, a sonorous voice, and a black, Morocco-bound, gilt-edged, King James red-letter edition could define Christianity pretty much any damned way he pleased. And did. Who was to say he was wrong?

Certainly not Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana. Dana Milbank considers Johnson’s role in turning the House GOP caucus into a circus in an excerpt from “Fools on the Hill: The Hooligans, Saboteurs, Conspiracy Theorists and Dunces who Burned Down the House.” Johnson’s improbable rise was foretold by God, you know. God speaks to Johnson personally:

“I’ll tell you a secret, since media is not here,” Johnson teased the group, unaware that his hosts were streaming video of the event. Johnson informed his audience that God “had been speaking to me” about becoming speaker, communicating “very specifically,” in fact, waking him at night and giving him “plans and procedures.”

God, said Johnson, told him that “we’re coming to a Red Sea moment” and that Johnson needed to be prepared — to be Moses! Throughout the speakership battle, “the Lord kept telling me to wait,” Johnson recounted. “And it came to the end, and the Lord said, ‘Now, step forward.’” Johnson told them that “only God saw the path through the roiling sea.”

In Sleeper (1973), Miles Monroe (Woody Allen) is asked 200 years in the future to identify photos of people from his time. One could replace Billy Graham with Mike Johnson:

This is Billy Graham. He was very big in the religion business, you know. He knew God personally. Got him his complete wardrobe to go out on double dates together. It was a very big thing. They were romantically linked for awhile. 

Johnson’s tenure is just as absurd and covers a period both tumultuous and damnably unproductive. What will future histotians will make of it?

Today, Johnson’s run looks anything but heaven-sent. In the first 18 months of this Congress, only 70 laws were enacted. Calculations by political scientist Tobin Grant, who tracks congressional output over time, put this Congress on course to be the do-nothingest since 1859-1861 — when the Union was dissolving. But Johnson’s House isn’t merely unproductive; it is positively lunatic. Republicans have filled their committee hearings and their bills with white nationalist attacks on racial diversity and immigrants, attempts to ban abortion and to expand access to the sort of guns used in mass shootings, incessant harassment of LGBTQ Americans, and even routine potshots at the U.S. military. They insulted each other’s private parts, accused each other of sexual and financial crimes, and scuffled with each other in the Capitol basement. They screamed “Bullshit!” at President Joe Biden during the State of the Union address. They stood up for the Confederacy and used their official powers to spread conspiracy theories about the “Deep State.” Some even lent credence to the idea that there has been a century-old Deep State coverup of space aliens, with possible involvement by Mussolini and the Vatican.

You get the picture.

Donald Trump’s crank politics became a thing to emulate to get ahead in his Republican Party. David French at the Times suggests that Republicans’ and evangelicals’ taste for transgressiveness matching his has led to men like Mark “I’m a Black Nazi” Robinson being chosen by GOP primary voters as their candidate for governor in North Carolina by a 45-point margin over his nearest compretitor. It’s how you get a Marjorie Taylor Greene, or a Lauren Boebert, or a Matt Gaetz, French explains. Leaders change insitutions. “They make them into images of themselves.” And hoo-boy, did he ever.

“Republican voters knew [Robinson] was a bad man when they chose him. Now they know he is a very bad man,” French writes.

Yes, that’s what they like about him. In their nihilism (or is it apocalypticism?), the MAGA cult is prepared to burn down the republic and install a dictator in a Bizarro version of Jesus overturning the money changers’ tables. It’s what Donald would do. (WWDD?)

French is concerned what it means for the trajectory of the Republican Party:

The yearslong elevation of figures like Mark Robinson and the many other outrageous MAGA personalities, along with the devolution of people in MAGA’s inner orbit — JD Vance, Elon Musk, Lindsey Graham and so very many others — has established beyond doubt that Trump has changed the Republican Party and Republican Christians far more than they have changed him.

In nine years, countless Republican primary voters have moved from voting for Trump in spite of his transgressions to rejecting anyone who doesn’t transgress. If you’re not transgressive, you’re suspicious. Decency is countercultural in the Republican Party. It’s seen as a rebuke of Trump.

But it’s the linkage between Christianity and transgressive politics that French glosses over that should be disturbing to the vast majority of American Christians who’ve escaped the Trump contagion. Any day soon, MAGA could declare Trump born of a virgin and, as I beagn above, who is to call it blasphemy. Christianity seems no more able to police itself than the Republican Party.

Battleground state doesn’t just refer to the election

Marc Elias of Democracy Docket previews his newsletter today (sorry, no link). He’s focused on efforts in the courts to preserve voting rights vs. those who challenge them. Two graphics are particularly handy.

First the trend in voting lawsuits since 2020:

The second graphic displays the number of active voting rights lawsuits by state.

Texas and California may be outliers because they are each so big, population-wise as well as Latino population-wise. The other 7+ states are six swing states in hot contention this fall. Republicans would convince their base that it is “Democrats and progressive groups are actively using the courts to bring last minute litigation to change the rules of voting.” The data says otherwise, Elias contends.

He writes:

The state of our democracy has revealed itself. Democrats will go into the election supporting free and fair elections while Republicans will continue to attack them. I wish it were otherwise. Perhaps if they suffer big enough losses, in two years it will be. But for now, election denialism remains firmly in control of the once grand old party.

My hand is up for the GOP suffering big losses.

BTW, their insistence on following the rules they’ve set is, shall we say, squishy: Arizona GOP Only Cares About Proof of Citizenship for Democrats.