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It’s The Videos

Published by digby on January 17, 2026

I’ve been wondering what the numbers show about the viral ICE videos that show their police state tactics. Peter Hamby took a look at it:

At this point, it seems rather obvious that viral videos are inflicting enormous damage on ICE’s standing with the public. Americans are bearing witness—almost in real time—to their behavior and the human anguish on the other end. Most political stories don’t come with visceral, real-world images that bring them to life for Americans who don’t closely follow the news; meanwhile, ICE’s enforcement actions are constantly playing and replaying on the small screen in everyone’s pocket.

But it’s not just Minnesotans documenting this. Everyday citizens all over the country are racking up hundreds of millions of views with on-the-ground videos, and seem increasingly willing to film ICE agents on job sites, at traffic stops, and even on their doorsteps—even while being threatened at gunpoint. It’s a scrappy, diffuse content campaign against the Trump media machine, which likes to turn ICE arrests into highly produced hype videos that look as if they were produced by an SEC football program.

Indeed, in light of the polling, it seems possible the White House might even be hurting their cause by endlessly promoting ICE. After all, the data suggests that the more Americans see, the less they like. Progressive content creators I spoke to this week reported a surge in views on their posts, and at Crooked Media, home to Pod Save America, YouTube content on ICE overperformed their typical engagement after the Minnesota shooting, staffers told me. At MeidasTouch, the progressive media outfit, co-founder Ben Meiselas also said that views on ICE-related content are surging, thanks in part to a partnership they launched with Status Coup, an independent reporting outlet that’s been livestreaming protests on the ground in Minneapolis.

Magnitude Media, a Democratic media-tracking firm, also found that social media posts on left-leaning pages that mentioned the Minnesota shooting overperformed their usual engagement by 72 percent, dramatically outpacing content on right-leaning pages, which jumped by only 5 percent relative to usual performance. The right caught up in views over the weekend after Ross’s cellphone footage of the encounter—which, in the eyes of ICE supporters, validated his decision to shoot—was leaked to a reporter. But overall, the initial footage of Good’s death had a larger impact, with an estimated 230 million views compared to 170 million for the second angle, according to Magnitude.

I think these videos are making it into the mainstream even if people aren’t on social media. Needless to say, they aren’t reaching those who are exclusive Fox viewers or cult members who post stupid memes on Truth Social all day. But there are plenty of people who are only peripherally aware of politics and these vids are being passed around at work, on email and finding their way onto local news. They are breaking through and that’s going to be very important as we confront what Miller and his henchmen are trying to do.

And this is what’s happening locally. They are scenes taking place all over America.

Here’s what the administration is selling:

It’s a lie and the only people who see this country the way Miller does are brainwashed cultists. There are a lot of them but they aren’t a majority and the rest of us think this stuff is insane.

We Need Immigrants

Published by digby on January 17, 2026
Ellis Island

I highly recommend signing up for Philip Bump’s newsletter. It’s interesting and unique because he’s not only a good essayist, he’s also a numbers guy with a flair for making charts. (The newsletter is called “How To Read This Chart”) It comes out on the weekend and is very comprehensive. Bump is obviously one of those super prolific journalists I can only envy.

Anyway, here is one excerpt from today’s newsletter that I found most interesting because I haven’t seen very much discussion of this:

The U.S. population is in decline

Speaking of grim analysis, the Congressional Budget Office reported earlier this month that the country’s population is likely to start shrinking by 2030 without immigration. Luckily for us, we’re doing everything we can to encourage immigrants to come to this country. Right? I haven’t checked the news for about 13 months, so let me know if something’s changed.

Sometimes people suggest that population decreases are not a big deal. Those people are wrong, for a lot of reasons. Google it.

This possibility reflects how two important patterns are intertwined — an interlacing that’s important for reasons beyond just the raw population numbers.

Consider how state-level population has changed over the past 15 years. A lot of growth in the West and Southwest, stagnation in the Midwest and Northeast.

Now I know some of you are going to be frustrated that the vertical axes here are not labeled. Well, it doesn’t really matter for our purposes. Just know that up-and-to-the-right means more population growth. If you want to email me about it to complain anyway, you can reach me at i.am.obsessive.about.axes@nowhere.bananas.

The reason it doesn’t matter is because I’m going to use the same axes to show the difference in growth between the native-born (non-immigrant) and foreign-born (immigrant) populations over that same period.

See how in nearly every state the rate of immigrant population growth is higher than the rate of growth among native-born Americans? In some cases, states have only grown because they’ve welcomed immigrants — a preview of the challenge that is looming for the whole country.

That challenge derives from the changing demographics of the population (and particularly the native-born population). I talk about the baby boom a lot, in part because I wrote a whole goldarn book about it.

But the combination of the baby boom getting older (its oldest member turned 80 on Jan. 1 of this year) and the advent of the coronavirus pandemic means that a number of states have seen negative natural population change — that is, more deaths than births — since 2000.

Fifteen states had more deaths than births in 2024 alone.

While I was still at The Washington Post, I wrote about how Trump’s attack on immigration (I read the news just now) comes at a historically bad time demographically. If for no other reason than that the increasingly large elderly population needs caregivers, the ratio here matters.

Oh well!

I’m pretty sure that we’re not yet in a place where robots can pick our strawberries, garden, raise our kids, cook our food or watch over our elderly. And there just aren’t enough native born Americans to do that work. It’s yet another sign of a society committing suicide for no earthly reason.

The Words We Need

Published by digby on January 17, 2026

James Fallows is a former speechwriter (and acclaimed author and journalist, obviously) who knows a powerful turn of phrase when he hears one. So he did some of our leaders a solid by pointing out some of the useful and meaningful rhetoric that we’ve seen from a handful of our leaders even as most of them have completely abdicated their duty to say or do anything to resist the encroaching tyranny.

I urge you to click over and read them all but here’s a sampling of the first five he mentions:

The purpose of this post is to note and support people who are using platforms bigger than most of us have, to speak more bravely and bluntly than many others with their privilege dare.

It’s an unscientific and only partial list, ordered chronologically. It starts at the beginning of Trump II, and so leaves out the likes of Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, who took brave stands during the January 6 investigative hearings. Many of these entries will link to reports I did in real time. Here we go:

1) Bishop Mariann Edgar Budde, Jan. 21, 2025.

What she said: That a new president should show mercy to those who were afraid, specifically because of the enmity he had stirred up and the policies he stood for. She named people who pick crops in the field; people “who wash the dishes after we eat in restaurants and work the night shift in hospitals.” People who make the country go, and are afraid.

Why it mattered: She was the first. She said it on live TV. She said it directly, and to his face—a man who is physically well over twice her size, and had a million times more power to wreak vengeance upon her in our mortal world.

She set an example. Let us remember her.

2) Justin Trudeau, Feb. 1, 2025.

What he said: That Canada would not knuckle under to the wave of sweeping tariffs that Donald Trump had just announced, against America’s closest neighbors and largest trading partners (Canada and Mexico).

Why it mattered: Trudeau kicked off what has become a theme of the past year: National pride and dignity among nations that for generations had considered themselves close US allies, now united by standing up to the US.

Who had imagined that the force that would make the European Union more unified than ever, that would give NATO new resolve, was fear of the United States? Donald Trump’s predecessors had worked to build bonds among our allies. Trump has united other countries—against their former friend.

It was Trudeau who, knowing he was about to leave office, first and most clearly made the case for (reluctantly) anti-US-based national pride.

I quoted from the speech, at length, in a post at the time. A brief sample:

“I want to speak directly to Americans, our closest friends and neighbours.

“This is a choice [the punitive tariffs] that yes, will harm Canadians. But beyond that, it will have real consequences for you, the American people.

And then:

We have our own identity, our own history and our own values. Canadians are welcoming, open, and ambitious. We prefer to solve our disputes with diplomacy, but we’re ready to fight when necessary.

Jeesh.

3) Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Feb. 28, 2025.

What he said: “I’m not playing cards, Mr. President. I’m very serious.”

Why it mattered. Zelenskyy was answering Trump’s angry and soulless “you don’t have any cards!” dismissal of Ukraine and its cause. Zelenskyy was establishing: This is not just one of your deals. Or a game.

4) Mark Carney, March 9, 2025.

What he said: “I know these are dark days. Dark days brought on by a country we can no longer trust.”

Why it mattered: Carney—former head of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, educated in the US and goalie on the Harvard hockey team, elected Canadian prime minister on a surge of anti-Trump sentiment—expressed the heartbroken realism of a neighbor that had to declare its independence from a once-loved but now abusive partner.

“We’re getting over the shock, but let us never forget the lessons: we have to look after ourselves and we have to look out for each other. We need to pull together in the tough days ahead.”

The “we” in the last sentence referred to Canadians, not Canada and the US.

5) Alan Garber, April 14, 2025.

What he said: Go to hell. This, from the previously mild-mannered and compromise-minded president of Harvard.

Why it mattered: The nation’s oldest, richest, and most influential university refusing to bow to Trump/MAGA demands. And thus setting an example and providing protection for other schools.

The others he quotes are Harvey Wilkinson, Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, Lisa Cook, Pope Leo, Jack Smith, Mark Kelly, Jacob Frey, Jerome Powell, Tim Walz.

It’s good to see these quotes all in one place. It restores your faith a little bit.

If Only The Czar Knew

Published by digby on January 17, 2026

It’s finally reached this point, which is actually a good sign. It’s a baby step but I still think it’s meaningful:

There has been a recent uptick of Republicans using the rationale that it’s not Trump making unwise decisions — it’s that he’s received “bad advice” or is not actually serious about some of his most high-profile policy proposals.

Given the solid grip he’s had on the party for the past decade, direct criticism of Trump is a third rail of modern Republican politics, which has been on full display during his second term. Over the past year, Trump has proposed initiatives that have seemingly been at odds with conservatives and his own MAGA base, leaving them to blame external forces for him steering off course.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., has said Trump has gotten “bad advice” on issues ranging from a proposed U.S. takeover of Greenland; repeated attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell; criticisms of Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, on approving judicial nominees; and the pardon of Jan. 6 rioters.

“The president has been given bad advice, and whoever gave him bad advice should probably not be in that role,” Tillis told NBC News last week of Trump’s Greenland pronouncements.

Earlier this year, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., directly blamed Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro for the plan to implement across-the-board tariffs. “Yeah, it’s not the president,” Paul said in April. “I mean, Navarro is a protectionist. He thinks that tariffs are good and that trade is bad, and so he’s wrong on the issues.”

Over the summer, Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, told NBC News that he thought the president shouldn’t have named Powell as Fed chair in 2018. But, he added, it wasn’t Trump’s fault.“Sometimes you make bad decisions and are given bad advice,” Moreno said. “And President Trump was obviously given bad advice by somebody he trusted.”

And as Trump has recently embraced some economic policy proposals that would usually come from progressives, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said he thinks Trump is being steered in the wrong direction. “And so, you know, he may be getting advice on some of those issues, like, for example, the 10% cap on credit cards,” Thune said yesterday. “Don’t know where that came from. I don’t know. I don’t know the answer.”

Lol. Bless their hearts.

They’re not wrong, actually. He is receiving terrible advice from the craven opportunists around him who have sucked up so successfully that the addled fool believes they have his best interest at heart. All he cares about now is building his legacy which he apparently thinks will be on the level of Alexander the Great. (More like Nero…) They know that if he can get gold trinkets, build buildings, throw his name on everything including foreign countries, and they flatter him like a god and they can pretty much convince him to do anything. That’s not to say that he isn’t actually for all that. He likes most of it and as for the rest he doesn’t care. But his focus is solely on himself and he’s literally convinced that he can do no wrong.

It’s a good thing that the Republicans are starting to do this because it’s their lily-livered way of finally trying to separate themselves from the president’s policies. It’s just possible they may even exert a tiny bit of their substantial power to stop him from completely blowing up the Atlantic alliance. Maybe. They get no kudos because these are very powerful people who could have put a stop to a lot of this a long time ago ( in fact, they could have prevented him from ever running again after January 6th) but better late than never.

The Criminal Donald Trump

Published by Tom Sullivan on January 17, 2026

And Acting President Stephen “Trump’s Brain” Miller

On Friday, the criminal Donald Trump refused to take off the table the United States attacking another NATO member (meaning the Danish territory of Greenland). Watch:

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) thinks the criminal Donald Trump’s designs on Greenland are “the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard” and any moves in that direction could lead to impeachment. At the very least, says Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), they would generate “sufficient numbers [in the Senate] to pass a war powers resolution and withstand a veto.”

Also on Friday (according to Axios), the Department of Justice weaponized by the criminal Donald Trump “launched an investigation into Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey for allegedly obstructing federal law enforcement officers in their state, per a source familiar with the matter.” Walz and Frey are not alone:

The statute bandied around as supporting the investigation is 18 USC 372:

If two or more persons in any State, Territory, Possession, or District conspire to prevent, by force, intimidation, or threat, any person from accepting or holding any office, trust, or place of confidence under the United States, or from discharging any duties thereof, or to induce by like means any officer of the United States to leave the place, where his duties as an officer are required to be performed, or to injure him in his person or property on account of his lawful discharge of the duties of his office, or while engaged in the lawful discharge thereof, or to injure his property so as to molest, interrupt, hinder, or impede him in the discharge of his official duties, each of such persons shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than six years, or both.

Force? Intimidation? Threat? The DOJ investigation is BS. But like CBP agents ignoring your valid passport, Trump doesn’t care. The cruelty (harrassment) is the point. Trump’s DOJ doesn’t care if it wins in court; “winning” is causing headaches for Walz and Frey, costing their families dearly, and frightening other critics into silence. The only intimidation here come from the criminal Donald Trump.

Government of the bullies for the billionaires

Meantime, Acting President Stephen “Trump’s Brain” Miller is furiously preparing the ground for his puppet’s invocation of the Insurrection Act by painting victims of CBP/ICE violence as perpetrators of violence.

Is public resistance to CBP/ICE assaults in Minneapolis an insurgency, asks Fox’s Laura Ingraham. “Insurrection,” Miller corrects her. Or “domestic terrorism.” By “criminal illegal aliens and criminal refugees who are looting and pillaging” Minnesota. Minnesota. Miller cites (as if he himself discovered it; he didn’t) Federal Nutrition Program fraud by Somali refugees as another reason armed goons have flooded the state.

Will Stancil, a lawyer-activist, tells Richard Warnica of the Minneapolis Star:

“If you want to investigate fraud, bring an accountant,” Stancil, a Democratic activist and education policy adviser told me as we drove around his neighbourhood Monday. The ICE agents in Minnesota don’t look like accountants. They look like soldiers. And you don’t bring soldiers unless you want to fight a war. 

Walz called the CBP/ICE invasion “a campaign of organized brutality against the people of Minnesota by our own federal government.” 

Miller is the same Wormtongue who convinced the criminal Donald Trump that Portland was in flames, Chicago is a hellhole, and other cities run by Democrats are “cesspools of blood.”

Neighbors rallying behind neighbors in Minneapolis, Miller insists, engage in “trained insurgent tactics.” He’ll sell that hard until Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and puts the U.S. Army in the streets to crush any dissent.

One observation. If Acting President Stephen “Trump’s Brain” Miller believes neighbors with whistles are trained insurgents, then he clearly believes their “training” is better than that of the goons Trump’s DHS has dispatched to beat blue state citizens into submission.

At this point I may take to referring to the dangerous, doddering fool occupying the Oval Office as the criminal Donald Trump. Because he is. I’d also like to see people referring to Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller as Acting President Stephen “Trump’s Brain” Miller, a la Karl Rove. Trump cannot abide challenges to his authority, nor to his magnificent brain. Undermine their relationship every chance you get.

If Minnesota Were Alabama

Published by Tom Sullivan on January 17, 2026

Captain Crook wants blood

Seth Abramson looks at numbers in Minneapolis:

The question media should be asking: if Minneapolis only needs 600 police officers to perform all general law enforcement activities in the city, why did Trump send 3,000 federal agents to execute a statutorily and constitutionally much smaller task?

Answer? He wanted a war.

He offers a breakdown at Threads:

Based on the size of the task and authority ICE actually has—merely executing judicial warrants for already-identified undocumented persons—we’d expect an ICE “surge” in Minneapolis to be about 100 agents.

Trump sent 30 times that.

Because he wants to declare an insurrection. 

So if you’re an American paying only small attention to Minneapolis and wondering why things are crazy there, imagine your town being the target of an unprecedented federal op.

Big deal, right?

Now imagine the feds sending *30 times* too many men—most virtually untrained. 

Sounds horrifying, right? But what’s happening in Minneapolis is much worse than even that.

DHS is sending volunteers from its ranks—the men who *most* hate blue states, cities, and Americans…and nonwhites.

They’re armed, masked, and have been told they have total immunity.

If you’re a Republican, take everything I just said but change the president to Barack Obama and the men populating the army that just invaded your town to ones who hate red towns, states, and Americans…and white Christians.

You would’ve called it a civil war two minutes in. 

Of course, that analogy can’t be made because Barack Obama never pardoned 1,600 insurrectionists—many of them violent. Obama never said he wants to cancel elections. Obama never said he deserves an illegal third term. Nor is Obama a convicted felon known for personal violence.

Across the world people are asking, “Is America in a civil war?”

And the answer—for now—is a very simple one.”

Not yet—but only because Democrats aren’t like Republicans. If the aggressors and victims were reversed, the Second American Civil War would already be well underway.”

So as you watch Minnesotans protest and march and on occasion throw snowballs at the jackbooted, masked thugs who are killing them and violating their civil liberties every minute, say a “thank you” to them in your heart.

Because if this were Alabama instead, we would be at war.

A Big Shift

Published by digby on January 16, 2026

I had been hearing a lot from the punditocracy that the Resistance had died during the second Trump term but it turns out they were wrong. Very wrong. G. Elliott Morris has this:

In the first year of Donald Trump’s first term as president in 2017, the share of Americans calling themselves Republicans (or independents who leaned toward the Republican Party) dropped just 2 percentage points — from 42% in 2016 to 40% by Q4 of 2017. I predict it will surprise many people to hear that the Democrats didn’t actually change their advantage in party ID much at all in Trump’s first term, expanding their advantage to +7 in 2018 from +6 in 2016.

In Trump’s second term, however, the Republican Party is shedding members at a much higher pace. Gallup released its latest party identification data this week, and the numbers show Republican identification dropped from 46% in 2024 to just 40% in Q4 of 2025 — a 6-point decline, triple the 2-point drop during Trump’s first term.

This week’s Chart of the Week is: Backlash to Trump has been more severe in his second term.

[…]

Here’s the trajectory of leaned party ID in Trump’s second term, quarter by quarter:

  • Q4 2024: R+4 (before inauguration)
  • Q1 2025: Tied
  • Q2 2025: D+3
  • Q3 2025: D+7
  • Q4 2025: D+8

That D+8 reading is now a recent record for the Democratic Party. If it holds for all of 2026, D+8 will be the largest lead for the party — the largest lead for either party — since 2009.

Trump’s 12-point decline in party ID margin (a 6-point decrease in share GOP) since Q4 2024 is 3x the decline in his first term.

There’s a lot more at his Substack which I think is going to be a vital resource in this election year.

The upshot is that Democrats appear to be going into this cycle looking pretty good. The resistance is alive after all and as much as everyone says they hate the party (and they do) they certainly seem to be willing to identify with them more than they have in many years and will likely vote for them in November.

I don’t want to make any predictions. This era is way too volatile. But it’s something to build upon for sure.

Today In Presidential Dementia

Published by digby on January 16, 2026

He keeps repeating this story for no apparent reason. Here he is three days ago in Detroit:

For the record:

Over 25,000 workers died building the Panama Canal, with around 22,000 during the failed French attempt (1881-1889) and approximately 5,600 during the successful U.S. construction (1904-1914), primarily from diseases like malaria and yellow fever, as well as industrial accidents. The vast majority were Afro-Caribbean laborers, with far fewer American deaths than often misreported.  

I can’t find any mention of the snake but there is this from the recent NY Times interview. While discussing his White House renovations this happened:

David E. Sanger: So would you do it on the West Wing? Would you do it on the arcade?

President Trump: I would do it here — arcade and over to here, to about here. Here’s the Oval.

David E. Sanger: Until you stop at the Oval.

Tyler Pager: Building office —

President Trump: I’ve got to show — I shouldn’t do this, but I have to do it. I’m sorry, Karoline. Here’s my son holding a snake.

[Mr. Trump stops midsentence, leans over and pulls out of his desk a printed Instagram photo of his son Donald Trump Jr., who is smiling and holding up a rattlesnake.]

Do you believe that? No, do you believe that? That’s a cottonmouth rattlesnake. He’s a great hunter, but I said, “You know, ultimately they win.” I don’t like it. Don. No boots, no nothing. He was — he was born for that.

[The reporters look at the photo, in which the president’s son is wearing flip-flops.]

Katie Rogers: Flip-flops around that.

President Trump: But I said, “Ultimately, they win.” You better be careful. So ready? Don’t take any pictures of this ’cause you’ll scare people. So I started off with a building half of the seats —

[Mr. Trump puts a model for a new White House ballroom on the table.]

This happened the other day too while Trump was meeting with oil executives about Venezuela:

That is a very disordered mind, which is evident throughout that interview. He’s all over the place.

Meanwhile, today:

A half hour later he was on his way to Mar-a-lago for a long weekend.

Aaron Rupar’s Public Notice has an interview with Simon Rosenberg who offered up this tasty quote:

“It’s all an issue of who he’s become — a vain autocrat who is building himself a gilded ballroom and falling asleep. He’s implicated in the Epstein affair by Epstein himself, right? It’s just too much. It’s grotesque. He’s become a grotesque figure. It’s similar to historical figures like Nero or Caligula. Their madness took over and they started doing wildly destructive things. Trump is in that place.”

Yep.

Wine Moms And Childless Cat Ladies Are Enemies Of The People

Published by digby on January 16, 2026

Michelle Goldberg writes about the latest MAGA target today. (gift link)

If you read conservative media, you might have heard about a new danger stalking our besieged country.

This week, Fox News warned about “organized gangs of wine moms” using “antifa tactics” against ICE. According to a column in the right-wing PJ Media, the “greatest threat to our nation” is a “group of ‘unindicted domestic terrorists’ who are just AWFL: Affluent White Liberal Women.” (The acronym is wrong, but never mind.) The Canadian influencer Lauren Chen — who had to leave the United States in 2024 after the Department of Justice accused her of working for a Russian propaganda operation, but was allowed back in by the Trump administration — wrote that the ideology of women like Renee Good is “almost wholly responsible for the decline of Western civilization.”

It’s as if the right is speedrunning the Martin Niemöller poem that begins, “First they came for the Communists.” ICE’s invasion of Minneapolis started with the demonization of Somali immigrants. It took only weeks for conservative demagogues to direct their venom toward the middle-class women of the Resistance. We’re now seeing an outpouring of misogynist rage driven by both political expedience

I’m more of a tequila drinking, childless, cat lady but we’re all in this together. And we are pissed.

They used to call us “feminazis” but as my friend Brad Friedman quipped during my appearance on his show yesterday, they had to abandon that because they can’t afford to insult Nazis.