Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

The Final Analysis

by digby

Throughout the presidential campaign a well connected friend I call Deep Insight has been providing me with analysis and generously allowing me to share it with you.

Here is his final report:

It’s a new day and it’s a new dawn
Nina Simone

If she were still alive, the outspoken Ms. Simone would also have some choice words about the last eight years. Americans often rectify a failed Presidency with its polar opposite. Without the disastrous Presidency of George Bush, the election of Barack Obama would have been improbable. Obama represents the perfect reaction to George Bush and his policies. But this was also special; hopefully it is a paradigm shift. Americans were willing to take a chance with an African American who four years ago had just left the Illinois State Senate.

Due to the events of the last several years, 80% of the voters thought we were “on the wrong track.” Seventy-one percent of the voters disapproved of Bush on Election Day, and Obama received 67% of their votes. Bush is dissembling his way out the door, assisted by news anchors. White washing of the Bush record is under way as the elder Bush floats trial balloons for Jeb, his favorite. As he flees to Dallas and a comfy retirement giving speeches, W. continues to promulgate policies to harm the environment and restrict women’s health options. Given the damage Bush and his cronies have done to our economy, prestige and institutions, it is a sorry reflection on the major media and a minority of 2000 voters that he was even in the position to be appointed in the first place.

This takes nothing away from the supremely talented President-elect and his nearly flawless campaign. His background (Hawaii and Chicago with stops in Indonesia, New York and Cambridge), intelligence and temperament have forged a remarkable person. His natural charisma is a gift, but he made a very difficult run for the Presidency seem almost easy. His campaign was a model of technological excellence in the revolutionary use of the Internet, but it also maintained control of its message through traditional media.

The current challenges are opportunities to fashion a turning point for of the nation. Our crises will require an involved citizenry to counteract the entrenched interests infesting our politics. But there are very encouraging signs. The spontaneous worldwide celebrations on November 4th also give one great hope. After Bush and Wall Street peddling junk securities to the world, our nation could use the good will.

Perhaps no Republican could have won in 2008. But John McCain would have been better off with his 2000 persona. Once upon a time he knew better, and his “base” in the mainstream media was disappointed by his wholesale transformation. However, McCain decided the GOP nomination was not possible without slavishly tying himself to George Bush. With Bush as an anchor on his candidacy, he was stuck in a permanent catch-up mode. His campaign also spun like a compass at the Pole, looking for tactics and stunts to win daily media coverage.

He wasted the months necessary for Obama to confirm the Democratic nomination. The pick of Palin energized religious conservatives and helped in the short run, but she was a major drag in the end. Her media interviews only gave material to Tina Fey. However, she will be a factor in GOP politics in 2012.

McCain’s fate was sealed when the market melted down in September and his erratic response (bailout/no bailout; cancel the debates/no I’m coming) ended his advantage on the issues of judgment (Obama by 46-33). The three debates merely sealed his fate. His best moment was his gracious concession speech.

Of course, now that a Democrat is headed to the White House, the mainstream media is playing scandal politics with the President-elect and the delusional Governor of Illinois. Republicans are dusting off their guilt-by-association playbook from the Clinton era, and the AP, Time Magazine and others are jotting down every word. In the name of full disclosure, the talking heads are dreaming up new hurdles for the Obama team to mount. This is the same DC media that missed every manner of serious scandal and lawbreaking from the Bush Administration.

There is concern among progressives who worked very hard for Senator Obama’s election about some of the initial decisions. The choice of Rev. Rick Warren to deliver the invocation at the Inaugural is too cute by half, and he is certainly not the best “unifying” symbol. Larry Summer is “wicked smart,” but the current economic challenges and solutions required are more in Joseph Stiglitz’s line of work. There are several other re-nominated Clinton era officials who hopefully have seen the light on deregulation of capital markets.

Obama was labeled the most liberal Senator by National Journal, a fact the right wing endlessly recited. The proof will be in the policy pushed through Congress. But the expectations for this President are out of line. He cannot possibly deliver what many progressives want in the first term. Grassroots activists will need to push from the states, or his program will be picked apart by special interests. On the other hand, he has to act boldly in the first two years or risk an Administration mired in small details.

Turnout

In the end, Senator Obama carried 365 electoral votes and 52.9% of the popular vote, the highest percentage for a Democrat since 1964. He picked up seven states George Bush had carried in 2004. He performed worse than John Kerry in only three southern states – Tennessee, Arkansas and Louisiana. The counties where he did worse than Kerry were confined to the Appalachian South and parts of Arizona and Alaska.

Obama received 69.5 million votes to McCain’s 60 million. He received approximately 20% more votes than John Kerry did. McCain received approximately 2 million votes less than Bush in 2004. This nine million plus-vote margin is the largest ever by a non-incumbent. The overall turnout of 131 million plus is 9 million more than in 2004, a 7% increase. But if one compares this election to the 2000 one, there were 26 million additional voters in 2008, a 25% increase. After decades of static turnout, this is very impressive. Where there was no real campaign as in Democratic strongholds New York and California, turnout suffered. This is another argument for a national popular vote. Disaffected Republicans stayed home in states like Utah and Oklahoma. Thirty percent of the votes were cast before Election Day, a 10% increase over 2004. While absentee voting once helped the GOP, extended voting hours clearly aided Obama and his much better organized campaign.

There are some very interesting stories in the “swing” states. In Ohio, Obama received under 200,000 more votes than John Kerry had. He was able to win the state handily because McCain received 185,000 fewer votes than Bush did. Turnout in the state was up slightly, by 1%. But Democratic turnout underscores that NGOs did a good job of turning out Democratic voters in Ohio both in 2004 and in 2008 and the Obama campaign did a stellar job in November. Obama, for instance, received 21,000 more votes than Kerry in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland).

Florida, on the other hand, had an increase of 800,500 voters. A massive registration effort by the Obama campaign and progressive NGOs added hundreds of thousands of new voters, and on paper the Democrats now have an over 640,000-voter edge on the Republicans. Obama received almost 700,000 more votes than had Kerry, while McCain received 81,000 more votes than Bush in 2004. Extended early voting also helped swell the voter ranks.

The Obama victory was fueled by a 27% better performance among Latinos than Kerry. African Americans increased their performance and contributed an additional 264,000 votes for Obama. As Obama won the state by 236,000 votes, this is a big part of the result. But he also did better than Kerry among white men (+2 percentage points), 18-29 year olds (+3), white evangelicals (+16), and white Catholics (+3). Not surprisingly, Obama ran up big margins in Florida’s cities (in Miami/Dade an extra 69,000 votes), but also did +3 better in the state’s sprawling suburbs. But he did worse (by 3 points) than Kerry with voters over 65. If one were to surmise the reason why, it would be race.

In the Mountain West, McCain basically reproduced the Bush vote from 2004. Obama was able to attract over 900,000 new votes in the region. He was able to win Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico by dramatically expanding Democratic registration and turnout. In New Mexico, new voter registration was seven times the margin of the Bush victory in 2004. In Nevada it was five times the margin, and Obama won Nevada basically on the margin of turnout of new Democrats in Clark County (Las Vegas). He came within 2.5% of winning in Montana. Without spending any money, he did 2% better than Kerry in McCain’s home state of Arizona. Hispanics increased their share of the electorate by 5 points in Nevada and even more in both Colorado and New Mexico. The Mountain West will continue to be a region where Democrats and progressives must invest.

Much more here …

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“He Was Talking About Me”

by digby

I think Joan Walsh has written the best first person account of today’s events that I’ve read. I’ve heard that it was pretty chaotic getting in and that a lot of people had trouble negotiating the crowds. But I’ve also heard that the overwhelming feeling all over town was one of racial reconciliation, which is a truly great thing.

Joan’s observations about that were particularly poignant:

I reunited with my daughter at the packed Le Bon Cafe, on 2nd and Pennsylvania, which had wireless service and the nearest coffee to the Capitol. There was a line out the door; happy people were sharing crowded tables (in the two hours I was there, we met people from Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles and Madison, Wis.). When we got inside, Dr. Arnett Girardeau, 80 years old in a blue Obama cap, kindly invited us to share his table. I asked him what he thought about the day’s events. “I never thought I’d live to see it,” he said. “You know, when Barack talked about his father not being served in some restaurants here 60 years ago, he was talking about me,” Girardeau said. “I was a freshman at Howard University in 1947, and there were still separate accommodations here.”Girardeau became a dentist and lived in Washington until 1962, when the civil rights movement called him home to Jacksonville, Fla. “We were still having Klan riots then,” he told me. He became the head of the local NAACP, then a state senator from 1982 to 1992. When Obama declared his candidacy, “I didn’t think he had a snowball’s chance in hell,” Girardeau confessed. He was leaning toward Hillary Clinton until Iowa. “When white people in Iowa voted for him, I thought, I’ve got to be with him. I felt bad for Hillary, and I wanted her to be his vice president — when he picked Biden, I told my wife, ‘He just lost the election; he’d have won with Hillary.'” Girardeau chuckles. “What do I know?””I’m just so happy I lived to see it. I’m more proud of the American people than anything.” Then Girardeau said goodbye, and made his way back to his hotel. He’d enjoyed the Florida State Ball on Monday night, but he had no plans for Tuesday. “I saw what I came to see.”

That man was born in 1928.
In Alabama that year:1928: Miscegenation [State Code]
Miscegenation declared a felony.1928: Race classification [State Code]
Classified all persons with any Negro blood as colored.1928: Public accommodations [State Code]
Forbid the use by members of either race of toilet facilities in hotels and restaurants which were furnished to accommodate persons of the other race.In Georgia that year:1928: Miscegenation [State Code]
Miscegenation declared a felony. Also unlawful for Caucasian persons to marry Asians or Malays. 1928: Race classification [Statute]
Required all persons to fill out voter registration forms with information concerning their racial ancestry. If there was any admixture of Negro blood in the veins of any registrant, person would be considered a person of color.In fact, throughout the South, Jim Crow was still being codified into law when that man was born. Imagine how incredibly meaningful it is to people of his age that we have an African American president.
Read Joan’s whole post. It will make you feel good.

Maha Shout Out

by digby

I just passed on to Barbara “Maha” O’Brien a couple of bucks and if you have any to spare to help her out, it would be a nice progressive tribute on a day like today to do the same. Barbara is a longtime Democratic activist and prolific liberal writer who has been blogging since practically the beginning. She wrote one of the first books on the phenomenon.

Like a lot of Americans, she’s feeling the pinch. Hard. And she could use some help.

Click here

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Not Playing The Blame Game

by digby

… is only for Democrats.

Republicans will be holding the Democrats accountable for things they haven’t done until we are all long dead:

Senate Democrats hoped to confirm Hillary Clinton as secretary of state this afternoon, but John Cornyn appears to have succeeded in forcing a one-day delay. With Cornyn objecting to the unanimous consent motion for a voice vote today, Harry Reid has scheduled a roll call vote for tomorrow. In a statement, Cornyn says he’s “pleased to have the opportunity to have a full and open debate and an up-or-down vote” on Clinton’s nomination. “Important questions remain unanswered concerning the Clinton Foundation and its acceptance of donations from foreign entities,” he said. “Transparency transcends partisan politics and the American people deserve to know more. While I look forward to having this open discussion later this week, today I join my colleagues in celebrating the historic Inauguration of our 44th president. It is a monumental achievement in our nation’s history and a cause for pride for all Americans.”

They just can’t help themselves. What an ass.
Recall some of Cornyn’s inspirational words on transcending partisanship in the past:

“If Anyone Thought The Anger And Political Sniping That Infested The Capital During The Campaign Would End After The Election, They Were Flat Wrong. Partisan Attacks In Lieu Of The Facts Have Replaced Ideas, Action And Cooperation.” (Sen. John Cornyn, “Attacks On Rove ‘More Anger And Political Sniping,’” Press Release, 7/13/05

and:

“Sadly, These Attacks Are More Of The Same Kind Of Anger And Lashing Out That Has Become The Substitute For Bipartisan Action And Progress. While Republicans Focus On Accomplishing An Ambitious Agenda For The American People, Some Democrats And Their Allies In The Hyper-Partisan Interest Groups Continue On Their Path Of Smear And Distract.” (Sen. John Cornyn, “Attacks On Rove ‘More Anger And Political Sniping,’” Press Release, 7/13/05)

Oh, and on FoxNews right now they are all screeching about how ungracious Obama was toward Bush in his speech and reminding their audience that progressives are historically racist eugenecists who are promoting a program of class envy.
Smell the bipartisanship.

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Make Them Stop

by digby

I am watching people from somewhere in this country parading down the street in front of the White House, before the new president, with brooms and lawnmowers. And none of the gasbags could be bothered to explain who these people are or what that means because they are so in love with the sound of their own voices saying the words “historic” and “symbolic” over and over again that they just don’t have the time.

In fact, they are barely acknowledging the parade participants at all. Instead, like broken records they are repeating the same mind-bendingly annoying, empty phrases they’ve been repeating on a loop for the past three days.

As dday said this morning, the only way to watch this stuff is with the sound off.

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Compare/Contrast

by dday

I guess the Obama people must feel like they got what they wanted out of the Rick Warren invocation, but from my vantage point it was a wooden and erratic address. Outside of the parts where he was quoting Scripture, it was hard to even understand his point half the time. When he started rambling about how God was “compassionate and merciful to everyone… and you are loving to everyone” it didn’t even seem like it was written or thought out at all, despite the fact that he read the whole thing without making eye contact with the crowd. He looked hurried and rattled, and I have to think that the mass outcry against his appearance had to play a part in that. Either that or he’s a star on a small stage who didn’t translate to the step up in class.

For comparison’s sake, check out the amazing work of the Rev. Joseph Lowery, who spoke of justice and charity and aid for the least among us. I’d say it was no contest.

And now, Lord, in the complex arena of human relations, help us to make choices on the side of love, not hate; on the side of inclusion, not exclusion; tolerance, not intolerance.

And as we leave this mountaintop, help us to hold on to the spirit of fellowship and the oneness of our family. Let us take that power back to our homes, our workplaces, our churches, our temples, our mosques, or wherever we seek your will.

Bless President Barack, First Lady Michelle. Look over our little, angelic Sasha and Malia.

We go now to walk together, children, pledging that we won’t get weary in the difficult days ahead. We know you will not leave us alone, with your hands of power and your heart of love.

Help us then, now, Lord, to work for that day when nation shall not lift up sword against nation, when tanks will be beaten into tractors, when every man and every woman shall sit under his or her own vine and fig tree, and none shall be afraid; when justice will roll down like waters and righteousness as a mighty stream.

Lord, in the memory of all the saints who from their labors rest, and in the joy of a new beginning, we ask you to help us work for that day when black will not be asked to get back, when brown can stick around — (laughter) — when yellow will be mellow — (laughter) — when the red man can get ahead, man — (laughter) — and when white will embrace what is right.

Let all those who do justice and love mercy say amen.

The point that those who Digby refers to as the Religion Industrial Complex want to avoid is that there’s no need to reinvent the liberal relationship to faith. It already exists in the application of many religious teachings, in the notions of peace and justice and equality and tolerance, and in the common effort seen in the civil rights and the global peace movements. The religious right has hijacked these principles for the purposes of authoritarian extremism, and what is sometimes depicted as the “religious left” would rather accommodate those extremist views. It’s a false choice.

And it didn’t hurt to here a little nod to non-believers up on that platform today. For a second I actually thought I lived in a country where church and state were separate. Not bad.

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More Good People

by digby

This is excellent news:

A Georgetown source forwards over an email from that school’s administration, reporting that Professor Marty Lederman‘s class will be canceled — because he’s joining the Obama administration. Lederman, another former Clinton Office of Legal Counsel lawyer, is perhaps the most prominent of several high-profile opponents of the Bush Administration’s executive power claims joining Obama, a mark that he intends not just to change but to aggressively reverse Bush’s moves on subjects like torture. With hires like Barron, Johnen, and Lederman, Obama is not just going back to Democratic lawyers: These are anti-Bush lawyers. Lederman has been, in particular, an early and vocal critic of torture, and has suggested Bush Administration officials have committed specific crimes in that regard.

Anyone who’s been following legal issues on the blogs over the past few years knows Lederman from his posts on Balkinization. Greenwald points out that Lederman will be in the OLC, which is even better. Like Glenn, I am much relieved that the administration has chosen people with a strong track record of principled criticism against the legal atrocities of the Bush years to go in and clean up John Yoo’s mess.
But, as always, vigilance and critical observation is also required. There have been many examples of people with great reputations for stalwart independence and high ethical standards being persuaded to cut corners for the greater good of the government/department/country/president. (Michael Mukasey is one such person, if I recall.)
Obviously, I don’t expect anyone in the Obama administration to be faced with the kind of choices that came from Cheney and Addington, so that’s not the worry. But as Glenn points out, there is a lot of pressure from the permanent political establishment to hedge, and Obama has named some others to the DOJ who are in favor of doing just that.
I don’t know Lederman by anything other than his writing, but if it indicates anything it indicates a man with an unerring commitment to the principles of the constitution. I don’t expect any shennanigans and I certainly don’t expect Marty Lederman to be writing legal opinions defending them, should anyone try. But you never know. Let’s hope this is one area where principle will always be practiced over pragmatism. Some things just aren’t negotiable.

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New Day

by digby

*I was going to put up “Ding Dong The Witch is Dead” but it seemed inappropriate to the this moment of reconciliation. But I hummed it.

h/t to bb

Masses On The Mall

by dday

I’m watching the inauguration ceremonies from home, and it’s far better with the sound off, let me tell you. The scene of maybe a million people in Washington today is a little wild. You don’t often see that many Muslim sympathizers in America (tee hee). My Twitter feed is exploding with friends on the Mall providing their onsite reports.

It’s not unimportant. This many people motivated to be a part of this event might just be the uniquely American desire to witness history and the ability to say you were there. It also can mean, and I think it does mean, that Americans from all over the world are ready to be a part of their government again. There were many of us the past eight years and longer, who ducked our heads, who disassociated from this country, who failed to recognize it. And while today has a lot of ceremony and symbolism, I look forward much more to tomorrow. There will be a genuinely well-liked man at the seat of power, who ran on a firm break from the current policies, and who is asking the citizens for which he will work to serve. He has told us who he is, a somewhat cautious, introspective, incrementalist moderate, but he has inspired an entire generation of Americans to tell him who they are.

Barack Obama will not be measured by how his initial policies succeed. He will be measured by how he reacts should those policies fail. Will he listen to those screaming for change? Will he take the commitment of millions to heart and fight for them? Will he adapt?

Looking out at the millions on the Mall, I think he can ill afford not to.

Today is about returning power to the people who made this country.

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Winks N Nods

by digby

Big Tent Democrat picked up on something that I’ve noticed emerging as a village meme: the idea that liberals expect the CIA to torture when they “really need to” even if it is illegal.

While the Beltway wants the torture policy of the Bush Administration swept under the rug and forgotten, Bush Administration officials are working at cross purposes with their Media enablers. Outgoing CIA chief Michael Hayden yesterday said:

“These techniques worked,” Hayden said of the agency’s interrogation program during a farewell session with reporters who cover the CIA. “One needs to be very careful” about eliminating CIA authorities, he said, because “if you create barriers to doing things . . . there’s no wink, no nod, no secret handshake. We won’t do it.“

I don’t know where this comes from unless they have decided that Alan Dershowitz fairly represents the liberal position, which is just bizarre. But as far as I know, he’s the only one who has asserted that he had “no doubt that if an actual ticking bomb situation were to arise, our law enforcement authorities would torture” and so argued that we should legalize it. It was a perverse argument based upon the assumption that we all agreed that the government must torture at times and therefore we must ensure that it’s done with all the “i”s crossed and the “t”s dotted. It’s one of those dry, bureaucratic arguments in the service of extreme immorality that chills you to the bone when you read it.

Perhaps there are others who make this argument and I’ve missed it. Surely there are those, including yours truly, who know very well that the government was torturing long before Bush and Cheney made a fetish of it. But to the best of my knowledge, only Dershowitz thinks that because they’ve “always done it” we should legalize it.

This isn’t a complicated argument. Torture is immoral. It is illegal. It elicits false confessions and bad information. It creates ill will among people all over the world and puts the United States on the same moral level as some of the worst regimes in history. It should not be used at all, ever.

If Hayden is actually saying that sanctions against torture means that they will not do it under any circumstances, then that’s the best argument for sanctions there is.

Update: Oh, and lest anyone still think of dredging up the argument that the Guantanamo prisoners, many of whom were tortured, are the worst of the worst, this article in today’s NY Times should put that to rest:

While hundreds of suspects have been released from the detention camp in the seven years it has been operating, the recent decisions came after the Bush administration said it had reduced the population to the most dangerous terrorists.

While Mr. Bismullah’s case was decided by a military panel, the rulings for the other 23 detainees occurred in habeas corpus hearings in federal court. Since a Supreme Court decision in June gave detainees the right to have their detentions reviewed by federal judges in habeas cases, the government has won only three of them. The government is appealing some of the rulings it lost.

The cases provide a snapshot of the intelligence collected by the government on the suspects and suggest that there was little credible evidence behind the decision to declare some of the men enemy combatants and to hold them indefinitely.

In a decision on Wednesday ordering the release of a prisoner who had been a Saudi resident, Judge Richard J. Leon of Federal District Court said the government’s case was largely based on inconsistent accusations from two other Guantánamo detainees whose credibility the government itself had questioned.

That case involved Mohammed el Gharani, who was detained when he was 14. One of the government’s claims was that Mr. Gharani had been a member of a Qaeda cell in London. His lawyers at the British legal group Reprieve argued that the government’s assertions would have meant that he was a member of the cell at age 11.

“Putting aside the obvious unanswered questions as to how a Saudi minor from a very poor family could have even become a member of a London-based cell,” Judge Leon said, “the government simply advances no corroborating evidence for these statements.”

In a separate case involving five Algerian detainees, Judge Leon, an appointee of President Bush, ruled last fall that he was not persuaded by the government’s claim that the men had planned to go to Afghanistan to fight Americans. The claim, he ruled, turned out to have been based on an assertion from a single unnamed person in a classified government document.

“The government’s failure in case after case after case to be able to prove its case calls into question everybody who is there,” said Susan Baker Manning, a lawyer for 17 Uighur detainees from western China who were ordered released by a federal judge in October. The Justice Department has appealed that order from a federal district judge, Ricardo M. Urbina, and the men are still at Guantánamo.

Yes it does.

I’ve heard rightwing gasbags cheering that Obama said in the Washington Post interview that he would consider his first term a failure if he was unable to close Guantanamo. They naturally assume that means he’s planning to drag it out. Let’s hope they are wrong.

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