
JV Last at the Bulwark is channeling my thoughts these last few days:
During the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump promised to deport every illegal immigrant who was a rapist, murderer, or thief. He also promised to deport 20 million immigrants. Some voters believed the first promise; other voters believed the second.
Because people are stupid, that first group of voters believed that there were 20 million undocumented immigrants who have committed felonies. This is not possible. The total number of people in jail in America today—this includes federal, state, local, and tribal land prisons—is just under 2 million. The number of undocumented immigrants who have committed serious crimes cannot be 10x the entire prison population of the United States. If it were, then daily life in America would look like Escape from New York.
So some Trump voters were duped owing to their general ignorance and/or innumeracy.
But others were not. Others signed up for Trump because of his second promise (the 20 million deportations) and viewed the first promise (about deporting only criminals) as the pap necessary to get the suckers onboard.
He looks at the number supporting it today and it’s not surprising but still depressing:

That’s a consistent level of support around 80 percent. Now here is the first poll conducted after the killing of Renee Good:

Even after the killing of an unarmed American citizen, a total of 80 percent of Republicans approve of what ICE is doing and 53 percent of Republicans strongly approve.
It seems pretty clear that, at best, one in five Trump voters were duped. The majority of them are getting exactly what they wanted.
As Last points out, this is about much more than just whether a percentage loss of those people means that the Democrats can win. It’s about what kind of a society we have.
And Last points out that the worst of these people are in charge:
[I]t seems that many of the Republicans most invested in a race war have a great deal of power. Like, for instance, Vice President JD Vance, Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, and Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem.
And needless to say, Donald Trump.
Sound familiar?

Here’s Trump in Detroit today:
Another urgent priority for bringing down the cost of living is to stop the colossal fraud that is bleeding American taxpayers absolutely dry, the fraud being committed by the Somali population in Minnesota. Have you heard of them? They’re a lovely people — it’s monumental. ..
You know they came from a place with nothing, and they come here and they drive around in Mercedes Benz. You know, the Mercedes Benz dealers do well in that area of Minnesota. Can you believe it? They have nothing, they get welfare payments and they have Mercedes Benzes. It angers me so much, but we’re going to straighten out our country.
This was done under Biden and Obama, very much under Obama. It all started under Obama. And we just can’t — we’ve got a great country; we’re not going to screw it up. But this is one of the great scams ever. They have the same thing, Somali in Maine. Who would think? I never saw — I never saw that happening…
Think of that Ilhan Omar. She lives in Somalia. They don’t have a government; they don’t have a military; they don’t have police; they don’t have anything. All they have is murder and robbing ships, bringing in ships, pirates. That’s stopped, same missile, ping, that’s the end of them. It’s amazing how that can stop corruption.
Those missiles, they never miss, you know. The same one, exactly the same one. But think of it, she comes from a country with nothing, and she comes here and she tells us about our Constitution. I have a constitutional right to rip off the country. I guess she’s — she’s a total scam artist, anybody knows it. How do you let her get away with it? AOC plus 3, she was one of the 3. No, they’re all scammers, they’re so bad for our country.
Those are just a few of the highlights of the racist, xenophobic section of that speech. It’s more than obvious what he’s talking about, although I would suggest that the anger at the “wine mom gangs” and the brutalizing of priests and others who are protesting signals that it’s not just racism, but a fascist crackdown on dissent as well.
(And yes, there’s more than a tiny bit if an echo of “welfare queen” rhetoric perfected by the right wing over half a century ago. He’s just tickling their racist lizard brain with that one.)
Last concludes:
So tell me: …What is the percentage of Trump voters in each of these categories:
- Group A: Sees and understands the administration’s intent and supports it.
- Group B: Sees and understands, but oppose it.
- Group C: Do not understand that the regime views its program as part of a race war and thinks it’s all business as usual?
And follow-up question: How big can Group A be for us to retain a functional, liberal society?
No answer to that here. We’ve always had many racists living among us. I think we thought there were fewer today than there were in the past but that was a miscalculation. The difference here is that we have not experienced the full scope of presidential tyranny combined with a determination to use the full power of the federal government to shut down all opposition. We are in new territory. How many will support him?




















