All That Jazz
by digby
Not to be missed — Perlstein’s brilliant take on Palin’s speech. Here’s a little taste:
Richard Nixon always pulled out stories of cute children and animals at crucial moments. Trig, passed from hand to hand between Palins and McCains with the rhythmic regularity of a Bob Fosse routine, is Sarah Palin’s Checkers: attack me, and you’re really attacking him.
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Iraq
by tristero
The situation in Iraq has definitely improved, from unspeakably ghastly merely to ghastly:
Small scale bombings and shootings persist in the capital — each a reminder that the war is not over and that Baghdad remains a place where no trip is routine and residents are still guided by precautions.
Most won’t drive at night. Many try to avoid heavily clogged streets, remembering that suicide bombers and other attackers intent on killing large numbers of civilians favor traffic jams or congested areas.
Baghdad is the key to stability in Iraq as the center of government and as a potential symbol of reconciliation among rival groups. This flagship role, however, also makes it coveted ground for militias and insurgents fighting efforts to fully restore order.
The U.S. military warns consistently that the security gains, though dramatic, are not irreversible and that the relative calm is fragile….
U.S. and Iraqi officials do not routinely release figures on the number of bombs that explode each month in Baghdad, citing security.
According to Iraqi police, however, at least five small bombs explode on average each month in the area where the bombing occurred Tuesday: near the intersection on the eastern side of the Tigris River. Less than two weeks ago, a pair of bombs exploded almost simultaneously near the intersection, killing three civilians.Nevertheless, attacks throughout Iraq are at their lowest levels in four years, according to the U.S. military.
August was one of the least deadly months since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.
Still, at least 360 civilians were killed and more than 470 wounded in violence throughout the country, according to an Associated Press count.
In comparison, nearly five times as many civilians died violently during the same month last year, according to the AP tally.Much of the credit for the drop in violence goes to the U.S. troop buildup of 2007, a cease-fire by the main Shiite militia and a Sunni Arab revolt against al-Qaida in Iraq.
With more soldiers in Iraq, the U.S. military was able to clear villages just outside the capital which extremists had used to rig deadly truck bombs which could claim scores of lives in a single blast.
Iraqi soldiers and police maintain checkpoints around the city, checking for explosives and vehicle bombs.With that, police say militants are now resorting to low-tech explosives, which kill fewer people but are often more difficult to detect because they use pressure plates or other simple trigger devices.
That is small comfort, however, to the families mourning the latest victims.
Three hundred sixty civilians killed in one month. Five times less than it was a year ago.
Stripped of Republican spin and described realistically, this means that conditions in Iraq were so incredibly violent a year ago that they simply defy the imagination of any of us who haven’t lived there. Now, with the sacrifice of more American lives and countless billions of dollars later, the situation is what would be described just about anywhere else as verging on total anarchy.
In April, 2007, when things were really awful, that brave, brave soldier, St. John McCain, drawing on his bottomless depths of courageous courage-osity… hey did you know once upon a time he actually demonstrated some real courage? That was a looooooong time ago, my friends, but yes, he behaved with courage. He’ll be the first to tell you. Anyway….
In April, 2007, brave John McCain strolled through a Baghdad market, telling a reporter that this was proof you could “walk freely” around parts of Baghdad. Not mentioned was the minor proviso you needed the protection of 100 soldiers, 3 Blackhawks, and 2 Apache gunships to walk freely around parts of Baghdad.
Today, things are so improved, I’m sure St. John could take that very same stroll with only 99 soldiers, 3 Blackhawks and 2 Apache gunships.*
By the way, how much did St. John McCain’s little stunt cost the American taxpayer? Wouldn’t that huge palette of money been better spent on scholarships for veterans which McCain refuses not only to support but even to discuss?
h/t Juan Cole
*UPDATE: And don’t be surprised if McCain takes time off these next months to pay a visit to the soldiers in Iraq. What a photo op that would make!
The Bush Doctrine Comes Home
by digby
This footage of the police in riot gear last night in Minneapolis is really amazing. I’m hard pressed to see all that much difference between this stuff and the horrible oppressive government behavior everyone was expressing such shock at in Beijing during the Olympics.
Including the Minneapolis protest, police have arrested 422 people since Saturday in pre-emptive raids and at protests in downtown St. Paul that were marred by violence. St. Paul was quieter on the convention’s third day, when four women from the peace group CodePink were arrested after crawling under a fence a couple blocks from the Xcel Center where the convention is being held. They were released.
You’ve got to love the phrase “pre-emptive raids.”
That’s a lot of arrests for a country where the right to free speech and free assembly is supposed to be guaranteed by the constitution.
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While We Were Sleeping
by digby
Batocchio writes in with this tip:
I don’t know if you saw Froomkin today, but he had more on Pakistan:
Well guess what? Sara A. Carter writes in the Washington Times: “U.S. ground forces crossed the border from Afghanistan and attacked suspected al Qaeda targets in Pakistan on Wednesday as part of an aggressive new strategy to kill or capture Osama bin Laden before President Bush leaves office, U.S. officials said. . . .
“‘I know the hunt is on; they’re pulling out all the stops,’ said a Defense Department official with knowledge of the situation who asked not to be named. ‘They are leaving no stone unturned. They want to find bin Laden before the president leaves office and ensure that al Qaeda will not attack the U.S. during the upcoming elections.’ . . .
“A U.S. counterterrorism official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that ‘finding bin Laden has always been a priority’ and that targeting al Qaeda bases is based on actionable intelligence. However, he added that the November elections in the U.S. have renewed a sense of urgency to capture the terrorist leader. ‘Any period of transition, like the upcoming election, can be seen as a potential vulnerability,’ he said.”
Far be it for me to suggest that the Republicans would pull an October Surprise. It’s been at least a couple of years since they used the power of the government to manipulate events to swing an election.
The problem is that the Bush administration is so incompetent that it’s highly unlikely they can pull it off. Worse, their attempts at such things often inspire the kind of blowback that results in airplanes flying into buildings.
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We Left Him
by digby
I think it’s pretty clear that McCain’s going to get all 14 of the Lieberman’s 2004 voters. Oh well…
By Jeff Bridges 9/4/08 7:56 AMFour years ago in Boston I staffed Joe Lieberman backstage at the Democratic National Convention. Unfortunately, last night some Republican did. I believed then and still believe today that Lieberman is a good man, and I respect him for doing what he felt was right regardless of the political consequences. He’s dead wrong about John McCain and Barack Obama, but I put the blame squarely on the shoulders of left-wing Democrats for Lieberman’s decision to speak at this year’s Republican convention. The Colorado Independent has a great story today about Lieberman’s slow slide from Democratic VP pick to the Grand Old Convention, and it’s worth a read. But most importantly, when did Democrats abandon the idea of a “Big Tent?” When did we start having litmus tests for our candidates? I thought Republicans did that – which is why McCain picked such an extremist partisan for VP. Not even Hillary Clinton could satisfy the far-left, whose primary concern is protecting the purity of their liberal ideology, not winning, and certainly not honoring a diversity of ideas. Sure this group loves diversity, but only the superficial kind. When an intelligent person makes a strong case against what they believe… whoa. They don’t just stick their heads in the sand, they try to take him out at the knees. Lieberman didn’t leave the Democratic party, the wing-nuts who decided to primary him pushed him out. And so did all the Senators who marginalized him because he continued to believe we could leave Iraq as something better than a complete mess, which frankly is in our country’s long-term best interest.Colorado Independent’s blog-i-nist (blogger-columnist) Jeff Bridges has worked in Democratic politics for the last 10 years, serving as communications director for two congressional races in Colorado and two governor’s races in the Deep South. Bridges also worked for Sen. Ken Salazar as a legislative assistant in D.C., and currently serves on the board of directors for New Era Colorado and the Colorado Conservation Voters.
Gosh, why hasn’t old Jeff followed his mentor to the Grand Old Party? It seems to me they’d love to have him.
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Competing Reformers
by digby
Did anyone know that John McCain was a POW? Wow. That changes everything…
Seriously, I think this election is now framed as the tough old patriotic reformer who will knock heads together to make things work and keep the country safe (stand up and fight with me!) vs the smart young visionary who will inspire and organize everyone to work together to solve problems and create a new world (yes we can!)
For anyone who hasn’t made up their minds on the basis of policy, party identification or something else, this is probably how the two choices look. Which style are you on?
He laid it on a little thick for me, but I would imagine some people will find it moving.
Update: The consensus is that the speech was terrible. (I didn’t think it was that bad, but I only heard it, didn’t see it, so maybe that explains it.)
But I have to laugh at this:
Swampland- McCain versus the Teleprompter Posted by Jay Carney He’s struggling, as he sometimes does — misplacing the emphasis on words, sounding at times like he’s reading the speech for the first time, losing energy during the sections on issues he’s never been particularly passionate about, buring applause lines in a string of sentences. It’s as if he can’t bring himself to pretend he’s not reading a teleprompter — that the charade distracts and frustrates him.
That old rascal. He just can’t be anything but authentic and true to himself.
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Heart Fan
by digby
Paging Ann and Nancy Wilson’s lawyers. I don’t think they would like to see Mrs Palin using their most awesome song Barracuda as her campaign theme song — no how, no way, no McCain. And anyway, those stiffs in the audience had obviously never heard it before and didn’t like it.
I’d like her a lot more if she’d play this one:
She won’t, of course. She’s the president of the PTA.
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First Polling
by digby
Survey USA is out with their first poll on post speech Palin:
Palin Speech Moves Independents: Results of two nationwide polls conducted by SurveyUSA show Sarah Palin’s speech at the Republican National Convention on the evening of 09/03/08 has helped the McCain campaign.
24 hours ago, independent voters nationwide were split on whether Palin was an asset or a liability to McCain’s campaign. Today, by a 2:1 margin, independents say Palin is an asset. Overnight, the percentage calling the Alaska governor an asset to the campaign climbed 13 points; the percentage calling her a liability fell 17 points.
The numbers are similar among moderates, who 24 hours ago viewed Palin as a liability by an 11 point margin; today, Palin is seen as an asset by an 18 point margin.Betting Line Changes: 24 hours ago, when asked if they would bet on Obama or McCain becoming president, Obama was a 16:15 favorite; today, it’s flipped, and McCain is favored by the same ratio.
Grading The Speech: Of those who watched Palin speak last night, 60% give the speech a grade of “A.” When those giving lower grades are factored in and a standard grade point average computed on a 4-point scale, Palin scores a “B,” overall. Among Republicans, she gets an “A-;” among Independents, a solid “B;” among Democrats, a “C.”
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1200 adults in two separate surveys, on 09/03/08 and 09/04/08. In each survey, those identifying themselves as registered voters were asked the questions which followed.
Did you hear Sarah Palin’s speech at the Republican National Convention last night?
75% Yes
24% NoWhat grade do you give her on the speech? An A, B, C, D, or an F?
Grade Point Average
60% A
11% B
11% C
9% D
8% F
0% Not SureOn the whole, is Sarah Palin an asset to John McCain? A liability to McCain? Or, do you not know enough to say?
55% Asset
24% Liability
19% Don’t Know Enough
3% Not SureDoes McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as a running mate reflect well on McCain? Reflect poorly on McCain? Or do you not know enough to say?
55% Reflects Well On McCain
30% Poorly On McCain
14% Dont’ Know Enough
1% Not SureOn the whole, is Joe Biden an asset to Barack Obama? A liability to Obama? Or, do you not know enough to say?
50% Asset
27% Liability
22% Don’t Know Enough
1% Not SureDoes Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as a running mate reflect well on Obama? Reflect poorly on Obama? Or do you not know enough to say?
48% Reflects Well On Obama
31% Poorly On Obama
20% Dont’ Know Enough
1% Not SureIf you were placing a bet today, would you bet that Barack Obama will be elected president? Or, John McCain will be elected president?
45% Barack Obama
48% John McCain
7% Not SureIs the media rooting for Barack Obama? Rooting for John McCain? Or trying its best to be fair to both?
54% Barack Obama
8% John McCain
35% Being Fair To Both
4% Not Sure
I know that last is ludicrous, but the fact is that the “liberal media” critique has been around for decades and many people have completely internalized it.
It’s going to be a problem for Democrats going forward because it means the media will begin to bend over backward to be “fair — despite their nearly hysterical protestations today that they have always been scrupulously professional. They won’t even know they are doing it.
This is a snapshot poll and we don’t know what it all means. There is a lot of churning in the electorate with the two conventions right on top of one another, the two late VP picks, the hurricane etc. Next week will likely tell the real tale.
Update: Some interesting observations from MYDD on this, here and here. Especially this, regarding the media:
This presents two huge problems. First, McCain can basically wield whatever attacks he’d like, and not have to worry about the critique of the media. They are not seen as objective judges in the matter. Second, the only way that the media can change this public opinion is to go overboard the other way, by attacking Barack Obama with multiple feeding frenzies.
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Simmering Hissy
by dday
Barack Obama was asked about the persistent attacks on community organizing at the RNC last night, and he eventually gets to a good response.
I thought the open was a bit defensive (“I’ve done a lot of things!”) but then he found the nut:
I would argue that doing work in the community, to try to create jobs, to bring people together, to rejeuvenate communities that have fallen on hard times, to set up job training programs in areas that have been hard-hit when the steel plants close, that that’s relevant only in understanding where I’m coming from, who I believe in, who I’m fighting for, and why I’m in this race. And the question I have for them is, why would that kind of work be ridiculous? Who are they fighting for? What are they advocating for? Do they think that the lives of those folks who are struggling each and every day, that working with them to try to improve their lives is somehow not relevant to the Presidency? I think maybe that’s the problem. That’s part of why they’re out of touch and they don’t get it, because they haven’t spent much time working on behalf of those folks.
Combine this with some remarks about being called uppity, since the slur on community organizing was unquestionably tied to the race of those being organized, and there you have it.
I should remind you that John McCain, who talks about serving a cause greater than himself, today cancelled a Habitat for Humanity event because, I guess, that sight of people actually helping their communities would be too blinding for him. Either that or he just wanted to offer up one of his 12 homes instead of doing the work of building one, I don’t know.
The point is that this is part of the authoritarian mindset. They don’t think the people should have any say in the key questions affecting their lives. They don’t believe in anyone but them, the wise leaders, having a voice. It is elitist to the extreme, and has characterized the Republican form of government from the founding of the United States onward. We know that it’s the community organizers who have beaten back the status quo and offered real hope to this country. We know that without community organizing, there wouldn’t be civil rights or labor rights or women’s rights, or American constitutional rights, for that matter. And we know that, when challenged by anyone who comes out of that movement, who comes out of the community and the grassroots, the answer from these moneyed elites is to call them “uppity.” To tell them they don’t know their place. That they ought not try to empower their community. That they ought to shut up like the boys that they are and sit down and let the adults run things.
It’s time to actually get angry about this.
UPDATE: Some great responses here. My favorite:
Community Organizers of America: The last thing we need is for Republican officials to mock us on television when we’re trying to rebuild the neighborhoods they have destroyed. Maybe if everyone had more houses than they can count, we wouldn’t need community organizers. But I work with people who are getting evicted from their only home. If John McCain and the Republicans understood that, maybe they wouldn’t be so quick to make fun of community organizers like me.
Its time to backlash the backlash.
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The Messiah and St Joan
by digby
Yesterday, I wrote about Palin potentially becoming the Orthogonian Joan of Arc if the McCain campaign succeeds in framing her as a victim of elitist, anti-Christian, woman hating liberals. (I think her warrior mien last night may have actually made it more viable rather than less.)
It remains to be seen if they will be able to flog this sufficiently to create a real backlash. They did go hard after the “liberal media,” thus cowing them sufficiently that they began sputtering about how they are being blamed for what the dirty hippie bloggers are saying. But we won’t know how this whole thing has shaken out until the smoke clears, probably next week. I remain skeptical about the efficacy of criticizing Palin as a trailer park icon because the problem for the Dem ticket is white working class voters — they need to get some — and I’m not sure they won’t see these kinds of criticisms coming from liberals and the media in the same vein they saw attacks against Bill Clinton from Sally Quinn and David Broder. Any whiff of condescension from us plays right into their game plan.
Palin is from the far right wing of the GOP and that should provide a lot of fodder for criticism. I have certainly urged that we heavily scrutinize her ties to to the AKIP and look into her extremist religious views. But her appearance last night as a polished professional (female) politician makes that more difficult as well. She doesn’t look like some frothing wingnut, even though, for all her “reformer” claims, her ideology is really as right as it gets. She’s a clever stealth pick to solidify the base. Whether she and McCain can successfully draw independents is another thing and I’m still doubtful it will work (unless the backlash becomes a wildfire and the working class whites all desert Obama.) Once people get used to the idea of her, I think they will refocus on the presidential candidates and she will spend her time exhorting the base to GOTV.
Batoccio (who, along with Dover Bitch did an incredible job of pinch hitting while dday and I were at the convention) noticed that the Republicans are not only creating the “Joan of Arc” narrative, they are creating a “messiah” narrative as well. I hadn’t realized it, but that’s exactly what’s happening. No issues, no substance all symbols and totems. Here’s an excerpt from The Passion Of St McCain
The fake cornpone patter of rich lobbyist Fred Thompson at the Republican National Convention Tuesday night made the bullshit and lies he was flinging all the more insufferable. His rallying cry for Sarah Palin was one echoed by other Republicans – the press and those liberals look down on you reg’lar folks (no mention of the leading critique, Palin’s lack of qualifications for the job). It’s a gambit that plays into the familiar victimization claimed by so many conservatives, but particularly those of the authoritarian religious right. Despite conservative wealth and power, and holding the White House, the rank and file still feel persecuted by those George Bush referred to as “the angry Left” – never mind that Bush was really describing roughly 70% of the country. (More on the conservative shell game on economics elsewhere.)
But Thompson ramped things up with a lengthy account of John McCain’s POW experience, complete with numerous pauses to allow the full emotional weight to sink in. He took some liberties of course, but he was delivering more than a Hollywood prison movie tale. Did you see the rapt, near tearful crowd, re-living this ordeal and suffering along with Thompson – and McCain? The GOP knew their audience, and this wasn’t Top Gun, Stalag 17 or heaven forbid, Grand Illusion they were selling – Thompson was selling The Passion of the Christ.
Watch the speech again, listen to the story Thompson constructs, and pay special attention to the faces in the audience (the “rapt” MSNBC version linked above has some great reaction shots). All political parties have their beloved narratives, of course, but the GOP is tapping heavily into the “culture wars” that they’ve exploited so successfully for decades, and also (I believe) appealing to religious tropes. Mel Gibson’s Passion… features lengthy depictions of Jesus being tortured and mistreated, most notably with the scourging and the crucifixion itself (although lead actor Jim Caviezel as Jesus carrying the cross also falls down in slo-mo what feels like at least five times). Although some viewers found Gibson’s approach gratuitous, it was a powerful, cathartic experience for some religious viewers, and the movie was quite a financial success. I’m not sure how conscious this appeal in Thompson’s speech was, but especially given his abortion-Rick Warren reference (“pay grade”), I wouldn’t be surprised if it was very calculated. John McCain’s story was presented as one of suffering and deliverance, rebellion and redemption, of stubbornness and faith rewarded. And the subtext was, John McCain is one of us, whereas Barack Obama is not, in more ways than one. A quasi-religious suffering stood in for economic suffering, perhaps, especially since the GOP hasn’t discussed the economy much compared to “character” and personality.
I urge you to read it all if you’re interested in this kind of analysis. It’s fascinating. Their campaign is coming down to a passion play featuring St John and St Joan vanquishing the heretics — of both parties.
I believe that politics is more than personalities or issues. There are cultural, tribal and political undercurrents that also determine the direction of voters’ decisions, which exist outside the spectacle of election campaigns. But in our current celebrity culture, the candidates are totemic and the spectacle itself is the message. If you look at the two conventions you can clearly see the choice the two parties are offering: an inspirational call to march into the future or a forceful war cry to help defend a besieged and threatened tribe. There’s power in both of those spectacles and it depends on the country’s mood and inclination as to which one will appeal.
Three months ago, I thought the Democrats couldn’t lose. I still think they will win, although I believe the race will be closer than we thought. The Republicans are as good at campaigning as they are bad at governing so they picked the one guy who could even remotely claim to be a “different kind of Republican” even though his only distinction from them is that he lashes out incoherently at members of both parties. Unlike the monkish, ascetic post-partisan Obama, who appeals to people’s better nature, he is an angry bipartisan warrior who (along with his brave, martyr’d second) will bring down the wrath of God on all those who fail to put “country first.” If he can convince just a few more people that that’s what it’s going to take to fix the country’s problems, then he’ll win. I don’t think people are that dumb. But then I always underestimate the prevalence of that particular characteristic.
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